tracking the technology revolution: highlights …...summary of forecast results www. techcast.org...

Tracking the Technology Revolution:

Highlights from the TechCast Project

William E. Halal, PhD

George Washington University

TechCast LLC www.TechCast.org

Copyright W. Halal 1 Copyright W. Halal

Copyright W. Halal 2

Overview

The TechCast Project

Forecast Highlights

Managing Breakthroughs

Macroforecasts of Scenarios

Participation Invited

Impact on you, your organization?

Your industry in 2020?

Issues? Strategies?

2


TechCast Online Research System “Best Possible Answers to Tough Questions”

•Internet

•Media

•Science

•Interviews

•Conferences

•Event/ Issues

•Trends

•Data Points

Background Analysis

Scanning Expert Survey

Results

• Expert Knowledge •Integration •Estimates

•Forecasts/ Tracking/ Arrivals

•Data Analysis

•Comments

Iterations

Status Quo Defined as

100 % Uncertainty

30 - 40 % Decrease

In Uncertainty

30 - 40 % Decrease

In Uncertainty

Uncertainty about 30%

+/- 3 years


1

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Energy, &

Environment

Virtual

Education

Information

Technology

Manufacturing

& RoboticsE-Commerce Medicine &

BiogeneticsTransportation Space

Alternative

Energy

Nuclear

Fusion Introd.

GMO

Quantum

Computing

Recycling

Precision Farming

Organic

Farming

Smart Phone

Biocomputing

Global

Access

Grid

Computing

Biometrics

Intelligent

Interface

Contact

Personal

Medicine

Child Traits

Deep Space

Cloud Computing

Broadband 50%

On-Line

PublishingMass

Customization

Smart

Robots

NanoTech

Life Span =100

Space

Tourism

Designed

Materials

Small Aircraft

Grown

Organs

Men On

Mars

Artificial Organs

Genetic

Therapy

Hybrid Cars

Fuel Cell

Cars Introd.

Hypersonic

Planes

Hi-Speed

Trains

Most

Lik

ely

Yea

r t

o E

nte

r M

ain

strea

m(U

suall

y d

efi

ned

as

30%

ad

op

tion

level)

Moon Base

Summary of Forecast Resultswww.TechCast.org

2035

Climate

Control

Micro

Machines

Intelligent

Cars

Automated

Highways

TeleMedicine

E-Gov’t.Aquaculture 50%

Smart

Grid

Wireless

Entertainment

E-TailingGreen Business

Optical

Computers

Virtual

Reality

Pervasive

Networks

Desalinization

Convergence

Thought

Power

Smart

Sensors

Modular Homes

Cancer Cure

Eco-

Bikes

Web 2.0

Body

Monitoring

Web 3.0

TeleWork

Hydrogen

Economy

Power

Storage

Synthetic Life

Electric

Cars

AI

off scale

VideoConferencing

Possibly the Best Forecasting System Available

• Comprehensive Covers strategic technologies in all fields

• Authoritative Pools trend data and knowledge of 100 experts

• Current Updated constantly by editors & experts in real time

• Validated Annual accuracy study of forecasts over time & arrivals

• Recognized Ranks 2 - 3 out of 5 million hits on Google search

• Cited Top three systems in National Academies report

• Awarded First Prize in AOL competition for creative IT research

• Published Technology’s Promise, Washington Post, Newsweek,

Futurist, etc.

• Consulted FDA, EPA, DoD, DNI, Corning, AMD, Asian Development

Bank, Saudi Arabia, Korea, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, etc.

5


THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE OF KNOWLEDGE

IT INNOVATION

KNOWLEDGE

7

Energy & Environment


Copyright W. Halal

The Coming

Ecological Transformation

The Problem: 3/5-fold increase of industrialization by 2030-2040

The Challenge: Transform economic and technological systems

The Solution: Business: Opportunity - pollution is lost profit Government: Internalize costs & invest in green companies Now $1 trillion industry. TechCast: $10-20 T/yr by 2020

Copyright W. Halal

Green Business

• Public strongly supports clean environment

• Corporate leaders: Europe, Wal-Mart, DuPont, 3M, Dow Chemical, Dell, Ford, UPS, Fed Ex, etc.

• Internalize costs & benefits, invest in green energy

• Prevention throughout product cycle

• Close material cycle (Recycling – 2018)

• Accurate information/collaboration

• Industrial ecology, ecosystem design

• Not usually a central goal of organizations

• TechCast: 30% of business - 2015

Copyright W. Halal

Water Purification

• 7,500 plants now operating • Half of world uses unsafe water. “Water promises to be in

the 21st century what oil was in the 20th century”

• Shift from public to private management

• New methods: Forward osmosis, capacitive de-ionization,

nanotech, rapid spray evaporation, solar power, etc.

• IBM plant in Saudi Arabia leading edge

• 140% growth by 2015 in Mid-East, Asia, US,

• Cost from $20/gallon in '50, to $6/gal. in '60, now approaching 1 cent/gal

• TechCast: 30% of need by 2024

11

Alternative Energy

• Geothermal, wind, biomass competitive now

• Clean coal technologies. Sequester/recyle CO2

• Concentrated solar/photovoltaic in 2013-14

• Biggest source is conservation (Lovins)

• Nuclear growing – from 440 plants to 500-600

• Deregulation, distributed energy, smart grids

• Growth rates of 30-50%/year similar to Moore’s Law

• TechCast: from 16 to 30% of energy use by 2020

(hydro - 6%, bio - 3 to 6%, nuclear - 6 to 9%, wind - .5 to 3%, solar - .5 to 6%, plus conservation, clean coal, etc.)


Strategies Green taxes invested in green companies

Collaboration across corporations,

governments, and nations

Reforestation

Industrial ecology, ecosystem design

Moderate lifestyles

Paint all roofs and roads white

Geo-engineering

What do you do?

Copyright W. Halal

Copyright W. Halal 2008 13

Information Technology

Copyright W. Halal

Global Access

• 5 billion cell phones by 2011 (76% of world)

• Gartner: 2 billion PCs by 2014

• Cheap smart phones for 25% of world by 2012

• Wireless, shared devices, $100 laptop, etc.

• H-P, Intel, Phillips, AT&T, MIT entering market

• Global IT market ~ $7 trillion (Forrester)

• TechCast: 30% use Internet by 2016

Copyright W. Halal

Cloud Computing

• Provide power, software, security, etc.

• Most computers use 10-20% of capacity

• SalesForce/SimDesk, Google, Microsoft, Adobe,

Intel/Yahoo/HP

• Private, public clouds

• IDC: "The cloud is the foundation for the next 20

years of computing."

• Loss of control? Response time?

• TechCast: 30% of computer use 2015

Copyright W. Halal

TeleWork

• 4% full-time telework, more part-time

• 40% possible

• Fuel savings, reduced office costs, higher

productivity, reductions in pollution.

• IBM: 50% of employees telework

• Good for crises

• TechCast: 30% telework 2-3 days/wk by 2019

Copyright W. Halal

Intelligent Interface

• Good speech recognition/AI, touch interfaces, big wall

monitors, virtual robots/avatars, multimedia, virtual reality

• From TelePhone, to TeleVision, to TeleLiving - talk with life-

like figures in work, shopping, education, medicine, etc.

• Virtual website salesperson, virtual assistants

• Voice control of computer, smart phone, TV, appliances

• Video conferencing & collaboration

• Electronic tutors, virtual doctors, lawyers, etc.

• IDC: “What the GUI was in ‘90s, the natural user

interface will be this decade.”

• Obstacles: Cynicism about AI. Mistakes & frustration

• TechCast: 30% of tasks by 2016

Copyright W. Halal

Virtual Reality

• Growing 30% year

• Useful for testing designs, surgery, training, visualize data, meetings, courtrooms, sports, etc.

• Improving: BB, wireless, AI, PC power, etc.

• Movies/TV going 3D. No glasses in 5-10 years

• Yahoo has 7 M users on VR sites (avatars, etc.)

• DoD developing 6 ft moving holographs

• Japan: virtual TV (3D, touch, smell) by 2020

• Augmented reality, telepresence, etc.

• Gartner: 80% of Internet users use Second Life

• UCLA, There, Pompeii, war, museums

• TechCast: 30% of people by 2017 +/- 4 yrs

Copyright W. Halal

Thought Power

• Skull caps, implanted electrodes detect brain signals

• Wireless control of PCs, machines, communications, wheelchairs, etc.

• Experiment where monkey controls robot

• Military remote control of weapons

• Chips implanted in 1 M dogs and cats, 1000 people; Prof. Warwick wired to PC, wife

• Electronic eyes, hearing, security, etc. - bionic person

• Sony able to control sight, sound, taste, etc.

• Artificial limbs controlled by thought

• Freman Dyson forecasts of “radiopathy”

• TechCast: Commercial use by 2021 +/- 9 yrs

Copyright 2003 W. Halal

AI

• Growth: $1 B in ’93, $12 B in ’02, $21 B in ’07

• Speech recog, robots, games & simulations, GPS nav, language trans, emotion recog, etc.

• Intelligent systems: IBM Watson, Microsoft Bing,

Wolfram Alpha, Google, Stanford, MIT, DOE. etc.

• DARPA Personal Assistant plus others

• 5 robotic vehicles completed DARPA competition

• IBM simulating the human brain (8,000 neurons)

• Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain by 2020

• TechCast: AI replaces routine mental work (“weak AI”) about 2022

Copyright W. Halal

Manufacturing & Robotics

Copyright W. Halal

Nanotechnology

• Nano = 1 billionth of meter/10 atoms wide

• Nanotubes - 100X tensile strength of steel, 1/6 weight, no friction, store energy

• Chips - 1 million x data storage (40% by ’11)

• Superconducters - 100 X efficiency of copper

• NSF: half of medical treatments, cancer cure

• Ultracapacitors replace batteries

• Space elevator – 1 meter film of nanotubes to geosynchronous orbit in15 yrs. @ $10B

• NSF: $1 trillion market

• 6000 patents, 1200 ventures

• TechCast – 30% of products by 2020


Robotics

State-of-the-Art (Sony, Honda, Toyota)

• 60K vocabulary, speech recognition

• 30 motor joints, walks, runs, stairs

• Learn faces, surroundings

• Security guards, receptionists, aides,

serving tea, other simple tasks

Coming

• Emotional interactions – Kizmet (MIT)

• Improved AI, speech, consciousness?

• Care givers, servants, warriors, etc.

• Rodney Brooks (MIT): “Like PCs in ’75”

• TechCast – 30% of homes by 2020

Copyright W. Halal

Medicine & Biogenetics

Copyright W. Halal

Telemedicine

• About 90% of medical tasks use paper/phone

• US medicine $1.7 trillion/16% GDP. Could be cut by 20%

• Resistance by physicians, administrators, patients

• Point of care terminals/records/PDAs/smart phones

• Publication of patient outcome data

• Remote patient monitoring/video conferencing

• Prescription management

• Non-invasive/robotic surgery

• Interactive models of patients (EU Future of Med)

• Computerized diagnostics

• Self-care management/knowledge management

• National Medical IT Czar, Kaiser Permanente – “inevitable”

• Google Health failure. Dossia, Microsoft?

• TechCast: 30% of care by 2014

Copyright W. Halal

Body Monitoring

• Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic leading

• Sensors on headbands, belt, armbands, webcams, etc.

monitor temp, pulse, sleep, exercise, food, etc. 24×7

• Google armband/smart phone to monitor 9,000 variables

• For chronically-ill, preventive care, research

• Wireless connections to databases, physicians, etc.

• Implanted sensors, digestible sensors

• Powered by differences in body-air temp – no batteries

• Social networks more accurate than physicians

• Growing 180% per year

• TechCast: 30% of people by 2019

Copyright W. Halal

Artificial Organs

• Now: joints, veins/arteries, blood, heart valves, tendons, pacemakers, cochleas

• Intelligent arms and legs, smart hand

• Eye cameras with chips. Also for robots

• Wiring that connects to neurons

• Neuromodulators (brain/spinal implants like pacemakers) for Parkinson’s, seizures, migraine, etc.

• Permanent Heart – 2010. Kidney – 2015

• Advant./disadvant. with real organs ?

• TechCast – replace major body parts by 2022

Copyright W. Halal

Cancer Cure

• Roughly 50% death rate. Now dropping.

• 80% of breast cancer patients survive 10 yrs.

• 10 drugs in ’95. Now 400

• 90 detection methods. First vaccines. Prevention

• Microbiology creates “cargo ships,” killer bacteria, RNA to deliver drugs, DNA used to alter genetics

• Nanotube devices identify and destroy cells

• Cancer stem cells identified for destruction

• NIH: Eliminate as cause of death by 2015

• TechCast: Life spans approach normal by 2025

Copyright W. Halal

Personal Medicine

• Staggering complexity

• General treatment 40-50% effective, side effects, 100K deaths/year

• Commercial DNA testing; $1000 genome

• IBM, the Mayo Clinic, other companies

• DNA read in real-time using nanopores

• Breathalyzers

• Catalog of genetic variations

• Would ease drug development

• “Framework for future of medicine”

• TechCast: 30% of treatments by 2021

Copyright W. Halal

Life Extension

• Improved lifestyles/health care

• Organ replacement

• Telemeres, rapamycin, resveratrol, sirtuins, enzymes, genes, etc. found to extend life

• Nanotech, micro-medicine to repair the body

• Kurzweil, de Grey: all causes of aging curable

• Some claim life spans are genetically fixed

• CEO of Human Genome Sciences: “We can conceive of immortality”

• Young today live beyond 100 years

• TechCast: 100 years avg. span by 2035

Copyright W. Halal

Critical Issues

• De facto medical rationing

• Euthanasia

• Social impact of DNA testing

• Allow cloning, designer kids, etc.?

• Biohackers

• Evolution of microbes

• Is life span limited to 120 years?

Copyright W. Halal

Transportation

Copyright W. Halal

Hybrid/Electric/Fuel Cell Cars

• Fuel efficiency, clean

• Regenerative braking

• Composite plastic bodies

• Solar panels

• Infrastructure being built

• TechCast: – Hybrids: 30% by 2015

– Fuel cells: Introduced by 2013

– Electrics: 30% by 2022

Intelligent Cars

• Annual costs of U.S. congestion - $50 B lost productivity, 40K deaths/$150 B damages

• Traffic to double by 2020

• Self-driving, GPS navigation, OnStar, cruise control, collision-avoidance, electronic tolls, intelligent automated highways, connected to driver’s “info-cloud,” etc.

• Infrastructure required

• Taiwan: Next $ trillion industry

• TechCast - 30% of cars by 2014

Copyright W. Halal

Copyright W. Halal

Small Aircraft

• Costs dropping: $150K, $10/hour

• Easy to fly: GPS, auto controls

• Safe: parachutes, 90% drop in accidents

• 5,000 small airports

• Affluence buys convenience

• Boeing "plane-car” flies 300 miles on batteries and has

a "computerized instructor”. • Air taxis, helicopters,microjets, skycar, etc.

• FAA “Next Gen/Free flight.” NASA “highway in the sky”

• Air congestion? Skies raining junk?

• TechCast: 30% of air travel by 2026. Never - 25%

Copyright W. Halal

Hi-Speed Trains

• French Bullet Train: 300 mph

• Maglev: 300+ mph. Energy efficient, low pollution, comfort. High investment but lower operating costs.

• Replace air travel between hubs

• DC to NYC 1 hour. LA-SF in hour

• UK, Germany dropping projects

• China, Japan, US adopting projects

• TechCast: Major cities by 2031

Copyright W. Halal

Hypersonic Planes

• US, EU, Australia, and Russia testing

Mach 10 scramjet planes

• Aerospatiale Matra planned for 2015

• Demand for global travel, space

• NY to Asia from 30 to 3 hrs

• TechCast: 30% of long flights 2028

Space

Copyright W. Halal

Copyright W. Halal

Space Tourism

• Space Ship One (Virgin Galactic) - “like commercial air travel”

• Space Adventure Co. has 1000 clients interested in going to the Int'l. Space Station for $20 M and around the moon for $100 M

• Robert Bigelow – Building cruise ships and hotels

• Market surveys (10,000 people @ $1 M)

• NASA: 2010 -12

• TechCast: High orbit around Earth – 2014



Managing

Technology Breakthroughs

• Organizations need to plan for technological changes in products, organization, society

• Track Strategic Technologies – Netflix, Apple, Toyota

• Develop Creative Opportunities – All

• Involve stakeholders – Netflix, Apple

• Expect failures as well as success – Apple Source: Halal, “Business Strategies for the Technology Revolution.”

The Global MegaCrisis

Trends Driving the MegaCrisis

• Science Forecasts of Climate Change 1 F to 4-10 F, 3-6 ft sea level by 2100

• Environmental Impacts Extreme weather, pollution, energy shortages, lose a

quarter of species, disease

• Methane a Growing New Threat 23 times the global warming impact of CO2

• Reducing CO2 is Costly $20 trillion, or about 1-3 % of global GDP.

• Industrialization Growing Globalization to double GDP and these trends about 2020

• Little Political Will No global agreement on taxing carbon. US in gridlock

• Increasing Water Scarcity World Bank - half of the world facing scarcity

• Recession Likely for Years Like the Great Depression of 1930

• Institutional Failures Could Grow Severe Stiglitz: “The financial collapse may be to

markets what the Berlin Wall was to Communism.”

• CyberWarfare US military, banks, air traffic systems under constant attack

• Weapons of Mass Destruction 1,784 nuclear trafficking incidents

Trends Resolving the MegaCrisis

• The World Starting to Use Alternative Energy 20% of energy by 2020

• Technology Revolution Introduces New Powers Information Technology (IT),

Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, biogenetics, etc. about 2015

• Forces of Social Change Women in power, Millennial generation, etc.



TechCast Survey on the Megacrisis (Results as of June 10, 2011 Sample = 55)

Decline to Disaster - 25% probability World fails to

react. Global warming, sea level rise, energy shortages, economic

depression, nuclear exchange, etc. Loss of civilization in major nations.

Muddling Down - 35% probability Weak response.

High-tech dark age, ecological damage, increased poverty and conflict.

Muddling Up - 28% probability World reacts out of

need and the help of IT/AI. Disaster avoided but some increased disorder

Rise to Maturity - 12% probability Ideal transition to a

responsible global order.

Source: “Global MegaCrisis” (The Futurist, 2011)


50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Exp

ert

s' C

on

fid

en

ce

(%)

Most Likely Year to Enter Mainstream

Longitudinal Summary of Forecasts - www.TechCast.org

Market

Size

2015 The World Online

2020 High-Tech Arrives

2030 Global Order

© TechCast, LLC. All Rights Reserved

Graph by Elizabeth West

Energy & Environment Information Technology E-Commerce Manufacturing & Robotics Medicine and Biogenetics Transportation Space

Life Extension

Hydrogen Economy

Humans on Mars

Moon Base

Hypersonic Planes

High Speed Trains Child Traits Grown Organs

Automated Highways

Cancer Cure

Gene Therapy

Artificial Intelligence

Thought Power

Biocomputing

Desalination

Alternative Energy

Electric Cars

Eco-Bikes

Quantum Computing

Genetic Food

Organic Farming

Smart Robots

Micro

Nanotech

Modular Homes

Personal Medicine

Power storage

Artificial Organs

Telework

Body Monitoring

Virtual Reality Smart Phones

Digital Convergence

Broadband

Entertainment

Web 2.0

Video Conferencing

Hybrid Cars

Intelligent Interface

Space Tourism

Climate Control

Biometrics

Green Business

E-tailing

Pervasive Networks

Precision Farming

E-Government

Online Publishing

Intelligent Web

Mass customization

Designed Materials

Fuel Cell Cars

Aquaculture

Global Access

Virtual Education

Grid Computing

Optical

Computers

Cloud Computing

Smart Sensors

Nuclear Fusion

Smart Grids

Recycling

Wireless

Intelligent cars

Small Aircraft

Telemedicine

Synthetic Life

Micro- Machines


Devices: Smart phones, $100 PCs, Web 2.0/3.0, wall monitors, convergence

Infrastructure: Faster BB and wireless, cloud computing, language translation, speech recognition, etc.

E-Commerce E-businesses reaches 30% take-off adoption levels

Global Brain: Half the world joins the Internet

Next 35 yr Upcycle: About 2015 -2050

2015

The World Goes Online


Copyright W. Halal 45 Copyright W. Halal 2008 45

2020 - High-Tech Arrives Sustainability Green business, alternative energy,

climate control, GMO, smart grids, etc.

Green Transportation Hybrid/electric/

intelligent cars, small aircraft, hypersonic flight

Mastery Over Life Artificial organs, DNA testing,

grown organs, cancer cure, life extension, neurotech.

Knowledge, Intelligence, and Beyond 2nd generation IT (bio,

optical, quantum), AI, robotics, virtual reality

Global Consciousness Automation of routine thought moves beyond

knowledge to MegaCrisis Restructuring institutions and society.

Next Field in TechCast ?

Technologies of Consciousness

Neurotech – Prostheses for Parkinson’s, adding memory, etc.

Biofeedback – Use of EEG for focused attention, stress, control, etc.

Machine-Brain interface/Thought Power – Brain waves controlling machines, comm.

Virtual Reality – Simulating environments to live in fully.

Media – Consumerism, sex, violence, hype, etc. - the over connected society

The Experience Economy – Travel, dining, sports, the arts, etc

Drugs – Medicinal (Prozac, etc), professional (Modafinil), recreational (marijuana, etc )

Vision & Strategy – Purpose, vision, forecasting, strategy, etc.

Institutional Change – Collaborative enterprise in business & government

Collaboration – Politics, diplomacy, labor-mgt coop., joint problem-solving

Servant Leadership – GM Saturn, Good to Great Studies, Japanese, etc.

Conflict Resolution – Peace Studies, arbitration, mediation, etc.

Physical Practice – Yoga, dance, athletics, art, etc.

Religion – Synthesis of world’s religious values?

Science - Study of spiritual energy?

Meditation & Prayer

Sexuality

Other ways to shape awareness?

Creative Destruction of Institutions

Government: E-government, budget deficits ?

Health Care: Patients vs profits, performance data, cost?

Media/Entertainment: Internet, values ?

Education: Distance learning, cost ?

Banking, Insurance: Internet ?

IT Industry: Technology Gap ?

Auto Makers: 50K deaths/yr, congestion, environment ?

Manufacturing: Mass customization, environment ?

Military: WMD, culture, peace-keeping ?

tracking the technology revolution: highlights …...summary of forecast results www. techcast.org...

Documents