traffic report nh 7

SEW 6-Laning of NH-7 from Hosur to Krishnagiri Section on DBFOT Basis

Louis Berger Consulting 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TTRRAAFFFFIICC SSUURRVVEEYY AANNDD AANNAALLYYSSIISS .................................................................................................. 3

GENERAL .................................................................................................................................................. 3

DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT ROAD ..................................................................................................... 3

FACT SHEET OF PROJECT STATE (TAMIL NADU) IS PRESENTED BELOW. .................................................. 4

INFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGY, IT DEVELOPMENT IN PROJECT INFLUENCE AREA ............................. 4

HOMOGENEOUS SECTIONS WITH TOLL LENGTH AND STRUCTURES .................................. 4

ROAD NETWORK STUDY ............................................................................................................... 7

TRAFFIC SURVEYS ........................................................................................................................... 8

ORIGIN AND DESTINATION SURVEY ............................................................................................. 11

TRAFFIC GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................... 14

Trend Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 14

Net State Domestic Product- Population- Per Capita Domestic Product (Tamil Nadu) .................. 14

Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimation ................................................................................................ 15

Projected Growth Rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP ...................................................................... 17

TRAFFIC PROJECTION ......................................................................................................................... 20

MILLION STANDARD AXLE (MSA) CALCULATION FOR PAVEMENT DESIGN ................... 21

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Traffic count on NH 4 - Road to Chennai ............................................................................. 7

Table 2: Traffic count on routes originating from Krishnagiri ........................................................... 8

Table 3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) - Tolled Traffic ......................................................................... 9

Table 4: Seasonal Correction Factor ...................................................................................................... 10

Table 5: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) - Tolled Traffic ...................................................... 10

Table 6: Traffic Zones – OD Survey ...................................................................................................... 11

Table 7: Major Origin Destination Pairs............................................................................................... 11

Table 8: Major Commodity movement on project road .................................................................... 12

Table 9 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in No.s) ........................... 13

Table 10 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in % age) ....................... 14

Table 11: Registered Motor Vehicles in Tamil Nadu (2003-2008) (In Thousands) ....................... 14

Table 12: Population - NSDP- PCDP .................................................................................................... 14

Table 13: Elasticity Values...................................................................................................................... 17

Table 14: Forecasted growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP ...................................................... 18

Table 15: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic - Tamil Nadu State ....................................................... 19



Table 16: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic – Karnataka State ......................................................... 19

Table 17: Vehicles – Registration Plate ................................................................................................. 19

Table 18A: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Most Likely) ................................... 20

Table 18B: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Optimistic) ...................................... 20

Table 18C: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Pessimistic) ..................................... 20

Table 19 : Traffic Projection - Toll Plaza at km 87+500 ..................................................................... 20

Table 20: VDF Values adopted in MSA calculations .......................................................................... 21

Table 21: Million Standard Axle Calculation. ..................................................................................... 21

LIST OF FIGURES

Fig 1: Fig 1: NHDP map – Status as on Jan 31 2010 .............................................................................. 5

Fig 2: Location Map of project road, HOSUR - KRISHNAGIRI ......................................................... 5

Fig 3: Route diverting from Krishnagiri ................................................................................................ 7

Fig 4: Snaps showing survey in progress .............................................................................................. 9

Fig 5: Major commodity movement along project road .................................................................... 13

Fig. 6: Elasticity by Graphical Extrapolation Method ........................................................................ 17

Fig. 7: Forecast of growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP ........................................................... 18



TTRRAAFFFFIICC SSUURRVVEEYY AANNDD AANNAALLYYSSIISS

GENERAL

The project Road, Hosur to Krishnagiri, is proposed to be developed on Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (DBFOT) basis. The major source of revenue for the project developer shall be the toll collection. For making the proper assessment of traffic volume, base year traffic and its projection, consultant, Louis Berger Consulting Pvt. Ltd. has carried out the necessary traffic surveys and investigations.

DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT ROAD

Project road corridor Hosur Krishnagiri is section of NH-7 from km 33.130 to km 93.000 in the State of Tamil Nadu. The project road starts from Hosur Town (km 33/130) and traversing through Sulagiri terminates at the outskirt of Krishnagiri Town (km 93/000). The existing road is 4- Laned divided carriageway throughout, with the overall length of 60.0 km.

The project Road Hosur to Krishnagiri is part of Golden Quadrilateral, Mumbai-Chennai Link. Fig 1 below presents the location of project road on NHDP map.

Mumbai – Chennai Link:

NH 4 (Mumbai – Bengaluru),

NH 7 (Bengaluru – Krishnagiri),

NH 46 (Krishnagiri – Ranipet),

NH 4 (Ranipet – Chennai)

Fig 1: NHDP map – Status as on Jan 31 2010



DEVELOPMENT AROUND PROJECT ROAD.

Project road holds a key importance, as part of the route connecting two metros Bengaluru & Chennai. Both the metros are major economic, financial & political hub and capitals of respective state.

Fact sheet of Project State (Tamil Nadu) is presented below.

Possessing the fifth largest economy (2004-2005) among states in India.

Tamil Nadu is also the second most industrialized state next to Maharastra.

It ranks second in per capita income (2004-2005) among large states.

It ranks third in foreign direct investment approvals (cumulative 1991-2002) of Rs.225,826 million ($5,000 million), next only to Maharashtra (Rs.366,024 million ($8,100 million)) and Delhi (Rs.303,038 million ($6,700 million).

Chennai: is the capital city of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. The city is base to around 30% of India's automobile industry and 35% of its auto components industry. A large number of automotive companies including Hyundai, Ford, BMW, Mitsubishi, Komatsu, The TVS Group, Ashok Leyland, Nissan-Renault, Daimler Trucks, TI Cycles of India, TAFE Tractors, Royal Enfield, Caterpillar Inc., Caparo, Madras Rubber Factory (MRF) and Apollo Tyres have or are in the process of setting up manufacturing plants in and around Chennai.

Informational Technology, IT Development in Project influence Area

Bengaluru is known as the Silicon Valley of India because of its position as the nation's leading IT exporter.

The expansion of Bengaluru city towards south-east direction, where Electronic City is under development and the traffic originates and terminates at Electronic City would preferably take route via Hosur –Krishnagar – Vellore to Chennai.

Chennai is the leading software exporter in India, followed by Bengaluru. India's largest IT park is housed at Chennai.

Chennai is a hub for e-publishing

Another potential source for generated /induced traffic is IT city being developed by GoTN through Electronics Corporation of Tamil Nadu (ELCOT), at Hosur and Vellore, among other 9 towns.

HOMOGENEOUS SECTIONS WITH TOLL LENGTH AND STRUCTURES

The project road starts at km 33/130 (Hosur Town) and terminates at km 93/000 (Krishnagiri Town). Based on the toll collection at the existing toll plaza (km 87/500), project road has been kept in one package. Concession Period is given as 24 years.

From To Tollable Length Remarks

Km 33/130 Km 93/000 60.000 km

No structure > Rs 50 Crores Toll Plaza at km 87+500

Location map of project road, Hosur to Krishnagiri, is presented in Figure 2 below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_and_territories_of_India

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Nadu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyundai_Motor_Company

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Company

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Motors

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komatsu_Limited

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashok_Leyland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daimler_AG

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TI_Cycles_of_India

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAFE_Tractors

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Enfield

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_Inc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caparo

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madras_Rubber_Factory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Tyres

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon_Valley_of_India



Fig 2: Location Map of project road, HOSUR - KRISHNAGIRI



The project Road Hosur to Krishnagiri (NH-7) is part of Golden Quadrilateral, Mumbai-Chennai Link. However between Bengaluru & Chennai there exist two road routes.

1). Route via Project Road, Bengaluru to Krishnagiri via NH-7, Krishnagiri to Ranipet via NH-46 and Ranipet to Chennai via NH 4. (Length Bengaluru to Chennai is 360km)

2) Route via NH 4 (Also called old madras road). (Length Bengaluru to Chennai is 330km)

3) Proposed Expressway between Bangluru and Chennai. (Green Field Project)

The two alternatives take different route up to Ranipet and than Ranipet to Chennai (Length 114 km) follows same route (NH 4). The Bengaluru-Chennai section of the highway is supplemented by the triangle of National Highways 7, 46, and returns to NH 4 at Ranipet.

Table below presents a comparison chart for the vehicles plying between Bengaluru and Chennai via many options.

Sr. No.

Description Via Project Road (NH 7) Via NH 4 Via Expressway

1 Length 360 km 330 km Proposed

2 Lane Configuration

4-6 Lane divided carriageway throughout

Bengaluru to Mulbagal (70km) 4 lane in progress,

Malbagul to Ranipet (124km) 2 lane,

Ranipet to Chennai (114km) 4/6 Lane.

Proposed

3 Tolling Complete length tolled 2 lane section is non-tolled.

Tolling will be higher.

4 Merits of Project road over alternate routes.

NH 7 at Krishnagiri divert to Salem, connecting central Tamil Nadu with Bengaluru and Mumbai.

Only Connects Chennai.

A major section is 2 lane configuration.

Being a Greenfield project, will take at least 10 years in start of operation.

Part of GQ, will be developed on priority. For example : refer Box below

Traffic has to enter additional state of A.P.,

Highlights the potential growth in project corridor

Bangalore gets its first, country’s longest elevated expressway. January 22, 2010

Bangalore, Jan 22 – This tech hub Friday got its first elevated expressway on one of the busiest roads – Hosur Road – that leads to Electronic City housing several IT companies in east Bangalore. It is the longest elevated expressway in the country.

The 9.5-km expressway from Silk Board junction to Electronic City is a four-lane toll road. It is expected to drastically reduce travelling time to the centre of IT industry as the expressway passes over six major traffic bottlenecks.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NH_7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NH_46



ROAD NETWORK STUDY

To comprehend the flow of traffic on the project road and road network, consultant carried out 24 hour count on NH 4 (via Kolar, Chittoor finally connecting to Chennai) as an alternative to the project road. The survey at both the alternatives is done on the outskirt of the Bengaluru town, so that a clear picture of the traffic bound for Chennai, can be comprehended. Consultant finds that substantial traffic is plying on NH 4 to save the toll and traveling distance. At present the Nh 4 is non tolled, however it will be tolled after completion of the 4 laning.

Table 1: Traffic count on NH 4 - Road to Chennai

Route Car

/Jeep M. Bus

Bus Tempo/LCV

2-A 3-A 4-6 A PCU

Bengaluru – Kolar –Chittoor – Ranipet - Chennai (NH 4)

6616 622 3121 2131 3978 1653 226 38,023

Bengaluru – Hosur –Krishnagiri – Ranipet - Chennai (NH 7, 46 & 4)

9719 244 3344 2455 5312 4708 553 56,355

In the quest to comprehend further, the traffic travelling on the project road can be divered on the NH 4 (Alternate Route) consultant carried out one day count at 3 locations, three major routes originating from Krishnagiri.

Fig 3: Route diverting from Krishnagiri



Route 1: NH 46 – Road to Ranipet and Chennai

Route 2: NH 66 – Road to Tiruvannamalai and Pondicherry

Route 3: NH 7 – Road to Salem, Erode, Karur and Coimbatore.

Table 2: Traffic count on routes originating from Krishnagiri

Vehicle Type PCU

Factors

NH 46 – Road to Ranipet and

Chennai

NH 66

Road to Tiruvannamalai and

Pondicherry

NH 7 Road to Salem, Erode,

Karur and Coimbatore.

Car/Jeep 1.0 3435 1063 6009

Mini Bus 1.5 173 50 196

Bus 3.0 1049 813 2693

Tempo/LCV 1.5 1046 553 2004

2 Axle 3.0 2130 515 2730

3 Axle 3.0 2134 559 4325

4 - 6 Axle 4.5 636 47 459

>6 Axle 4.5 8 7 2

(PCU) 24101 7872 40628

% Diversion 33% 11% 56%

TRAFFIC SURVEYS

With a view to estimate the base year traffic volume in respect of goods and passenger carrying vehicles, the Classified Traffic Volume Count (CTVC) survey at two locations, Turning Movement survey at two locations and Origin-Destination (O-D) survey at one location were conducted. For the purpose of traffic estimation and projections the year 2010-11 has been taken as the base year.

SEW officials at toll plaza location Manual CTVC at Km 87+4 (Near Krishnagiri)



Manual CTVC at Km 34+000 (Near Hosur) Long Queuing at toll plaza km 87+500

Origin Destination Survey at km 87+500 Origin Destination Survey at km 87+500

Fig 4: Snaps showing survey in progress

CLASSIFIED VOLUME COUNT SURVEY

The format for CTVC surveys were planned in such a ways that it provides the information of different types of toll rates. Data has also been collected to ascertain the capacity–volume ratio or Level of Service along the project road. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) calculated from the 7 day traffic volume count is summarized in Table 3 below. For details of day to day traffic, Daily variation in traffic, refer Appendix A.

Table 3: Average Daily Traffic (ADT) - Tolled Traffic

Vehicle Type PCU

Factors Km 87+400

(Existing Toll Plaza) Km 34+000

(For MSA calculations)

Car/Jeep 1.0 6269 9719

Mini Bus 1.5 101 244

Bus 3.0 3275 3344

Tempo/LCV 1.5 3047 2455

2 Axle 3.0 3028 5312

3 Axle 3.0 4963 4708

4 - 6 Axle 4.5 781 482

>6 Axle 4.5 32 72



Tractor 1.5 14 3

Tractor Trailor 4.5 39 13

Exempted vehicles 83 30

2 Wheelers 0.5 7055 7055

3 Wheelers 1.0 947 947

ADT TOTAL 29634 34385

(PCU) 53116 60895

The project road is passing through the urban section of Hosur and Krishnagiri, however no major settlement exist in-between, but the quantum of non tolled traffic is high.

For arriving at the annual average daily traffic (AADT) consultant collected the monthly data of traffic plying on the project road for complete one year. Table 4 below presents the calculation of Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF) for calculating AADT from the ADT figures given in table above. Survey was carried out in the month of March 2010.

Table 4: Seasonal Correction Factor

Sr .No.

Monthly

Car LCV / Mini Bus Bus / Trucks

Revenue SCF Revenue SCF Revenue SCF

1 Jan-09 198,959 1.06 58,021 1.05 225,188 1.16

2 Feb-09 168,551 1.256 57,760 1.06 228,841 1.14

3 Mar-09 173,478 1.221 63,689 0.958 260,437 1.004

4 Apr-09 200,708 1.05 63,386 0.96 255,167 1.02

5 May-09 235,194 0.90 61,858 0.99 264,592 0.99

6 Jun-09 209,733 1.01 59,684 1.02 265,480 0.98

7 Jul-09 203,269 1.04 61,246 1.00 275,759 0.95

8 Aug-09 221,456 0.96 59,658 1.02 272,865 0.96

9 Sep-09 222,020 0.95 60,582 1.01 260,186 1.00

10 Oct-09 232,703 0.91 63,195 0.97 268,970 0.97

11 Nov-09 206,013 1.03 54,992 1.11 253,719 1.03

12 Dec-09 268,859 0.79 67,876 0.90 306,385 0.85

Ave. 211,745 60,996 261,466

The AADT values as calculated by multiplying the SCF with the ADT values arrived from 7 day 24 hour volume count is presented in Table 5 below.

Table 5: Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) - Tolled Traffic

Vehicle Type PCU

Factors Km 87+400



Car/Jeep 1.0 7652 11862

Mini Bus 1.5 97 234

Bus 3.0 3288 3357

Tempo/LCV 1.5 2918 2351

2 Axle 3.0 3040 5333

3 Axle 3.0 4754 4509

4 - 6 Axle 4.5 784 484

>6 Axle 4.5 30 69

Tractor 1.5 14 3



Vehicle Type PCU

Factors Km 87+400



Tractor Trailor 4.5 39 13

Exempted vehicles 83 30

2 Wheelers 0.5 7055 7055

3 Wheelers 1.0 947 947

ADT TOTAL 30700 36248

(PCU) 53752 62367

ORIGIN AND DESTINATION SURVEY

During the OD survey all the relevant information was collected from the vehicle operators in pre-designed format by stopping vehicles at random sample basis. The collected data includes vehicle number, origin and destination place, commodity carried, distance traveled, no. of trips in a month etc. The project influence area is divided into 13 zones based on the movement of traffic on the project road. Table 6 below presents the traffic zones.

Table 6: Traffic Zones – OD Survey

ZONE CODE PLACE

1 Bengaluru, Tumkur, kolar, Hasan, Mysore

2 Hosur

3 Shoolagiri, Royakotti

4 Krishnagiri, Thiruvallauvar, Kaveripatnam

5 Dharampuri

6 Salem

7 Coimbatore, Kerala

8 Mattur, Tiruvannamalai, Viluppuram, Pondycherry

9 Jolarpetti, Vellore, Kanchipuram, Chennai

10 Andhra Pradesh

11 Maharashtra, Gujrat

12 N. India

13 South TN

Based on the OD survey data collected from the toll plaza, survey locations, major Origin-Destination pairs are presented in Table 7 below. Figure 5 below presents the major commodity movement along the project road, along major routes.

Table 7: Major Origin Destination Pairs

Major OD Pair Vehicle Type

Commodity From To

Bengaluru, Tumkur, Kolar, Mysore, Hasan

Vellore, Kanchipuram, Chennai

Truck 2A Parcel/Courier

Truck 3A Parcel, Vegetables

Truck >3A Gas

LCV Parcel, Food Products

Car -


Salem, Erode

Truck 3A Fruits/Vegetables

LCV Parcel/Courier

Bus -



Major OD Pair Vehicle Type

Commodity From To

Car -


South Tamil Nadu



Truck >3A Vehicles

LCV Fruits/Vegetables


Krishnagiri, Thiruvalluvar, Kaveripatnam

Truck >3A Vehicles

Car -

Hosur Vellore, Kanchipuram, Chennai

Truck 2A Soil

Truck 3A Soil

LCV Hardwares

Car -

Hosur Krishnagiri, Thiruvalluvar, Kaveripatnam

Truck 2A Timber/Food Grains

LCV Fruits/Vegetables

Car -

Maharashtra, Gujrat

Vellore, Kanchipuram, Chennai

Truck 2A Parcel/Courier

Salem, Erode Truck 3A Garments

South Tamil Nadu Truck >3A Vegetables, Gas


Thiruvannamalai, Viluppuram, Pudducherry

Bus -

Hosur Salem, Erode Bus -

Bengaluru being very near to the project road is generating lot of commercial as well as passenger vehicles.

Majority of traffic is not bound for Chennai but is going towards Salem, Erode and Coimbatore.

Major commodities are Hardware, Parcels and Vegetables, Refer Table 8 below.

Table 8: Major Commodity movement on project road

Commodity Krishnagiri

to Hosur Hosur to

Krishnagiri Bothways % distribution

Hardware 57 101 158 35%

Parcel/Courier 55 23 78 17%

Fruits & Vegetables 48 19 67 15%

Vehicle 33 0 33 7%

Grocery 16 18 34 8%

Petrol/Diesel 11 33 44 9%

Construction material 10 18 28 6%

Food Grains 3 6 9 2%

Stationary 2 0 2 1%

Total 235 218 453 100.00%



Major Commodities on Project Road

Hardware

25%

Vehicle

14%

Parcel/Courier

23%

Fruits &

Vegetables

20%

Stationary

1%

Food Grains

1%

Grocery

7%

Construction

material

4%

Petrol/Diesel

5%

Fig 5: Major commodity movement along project road

Table 9 and 10 below presents the OD Matrix at the toll plaza location in both directions.

Table 9 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in No.s)

Origin Destination

Zone No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grand Total

Banglore 1 4 1 99 23 73 52 14 202 17 2 1 59 547

Hosur 2 1 2 73 11 46 5 5 87 10 1 18 259

Shoolagiri 3 1 1 2 1 1 6

krishnagiri, 4 65 78 10 1 2 5 161

Dharampuri 5 14 14 1 1 30

Salem 6 87 45 2 1 10 6 1 152

Coimbatore, 7 45 11 1 3 7 1 68

Pondycherry 8 65 35 7 3 110

Chennai 9 133 58 2 1 2 1 12 3 212

Andhra Pra. 10 6 3 1 1 1 4 16

Maha, Guj 11 2 1 1 13 12 6 28 1 1 13 78

N. India 12 2 1 6 8 5 4 2 2 4 34

South TN 13 32 21 3 1 3 4 64

Grand Total 456 269 13 181 36 142 82 30 328 36 42 22 100 1737



Table 10 : OD Matrix of vehicles plying between Hosur & Krishnagiri (in % age)

Origin Destination

Zone No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Grand Total

Banglore 1 6% 1% 4% 3% 1% 12% 1% 3% 31%

Hosur 2 4% 1% 3% 5% 1% 1% 15%

Shoolagiri 3 0%

krishnagiri, 4 4% 4% 1% 9%

Dharampuri 5 1% 1% 2%

Salem 6 5% 3% 1% 9%

Coimbatore, 7 3% 1% 4%

Pondycherry 8 4% 2% 6%

Chennai 9 8% 3% 1% 12%

Andhra Pra. 10 1%

Maha, Guj 11 1% 1% 2% 1% 4%

N. India 12 2%

South TN 13 2% 1% 4%

Grand Total 26% 15% 1% 10% 2% 8% 5% 2% 19% 2% 2% 1% 6% 100 %

Note: For clarity the % values less than 1 % are omitted.

TRAFFIC GROWTH AND PROJECTIONS

Trend Analysis

Vehicle Registered at the end of financial year in the state of Tamil Nadu is given in Table 11 and also compared with the growth rate achieved in terms of vehicle registered on all India basis.

Table 11: Registered Motor Vehicles in Tamil Nadu (2003-2008) (In Thousands)

Year (As On 31st March)

All Vehicles

Two Wheelers

Car, Jeeps & Taxis

Mini Bus Buses LCV Trucks

2003 8004982 6260093 853493 147087 71111 195069 263221

2004 8575241 6734205 901740 154192 76907 204314 276235

2005 9257187 7292507 962837 163545 82547 216456 293486

2006 10053913 7936778 1030686 174646 89991 231491 315564

Growth 2003-04 7.1% 7.6% 5.7% 4.8% 8.2% 4.7% 4.9%

Growth 2004-05 8.0% 8.3% 6.8% 6.1% 7.3% 5.9% 6.2%

Growth 2005-06 8.6% 8.8% 7.0% 6.8% 9.0% 6.9% 7.5%

Growth (T.N.) 7.9% 8.2% 6.5% 5.9% 8.2% 5.9% 6.2%

Growth (Karnataka)

19.2% 22.3% 15.9% 4.5% 12.3% 14.9% 14.9%

Growth (India) 10.2% 10.9% 10.3% 7.2% 10.5% 6.5% 9.4%

Net State Domestic Product- Population- Per Capita Domestic Product (Tamil Nadu)

The Population, NSDP and Per Capita Income over the period from 2000 to 2009 for the state of Tamil Nadu is presented in Table 12.

Table 12: Population - NSDP- PCDP



Year (As On 31st March)

Population (in Thousand)

Population Growth

NSDP Annual

PCDP Annual

Growth Growth

1971 41199

1981 48408 1.63%

1991 55859 1.44% - -

1.12%

- -

2000 119704 19432

2001 62111 130412 8.95% 20972 7.93%

2002

131392 4.77% 20942 3.81%

2003 138253 4.92% 21830 3.96%

2004 153874 6.48% 24087 5.52%

2005 177222 8.16% 27512 7.20%

2006 205596 9.43% 31663 8.48%

2007 243351 10.67% 37190 9.72%

2008 268667 10.63% 40757 9.70%

2009 299119 10.71% 45058 9.80%

Traffic Demand Elasticity Estimation

The elasticity for car, bus and truck is calculated separately through econometric model. (IRC: 108-1996). The elasticity for car and bus (passenger vehicles) is calculated based on the Population and Per Capita Domestic Product (PCDP) and the elasticity for trucks is calculated based on the Net State Domestic Product (NSDP). The graphical presentation of the elasticity is presented in Fig. 6 below.

Logarithm Chart of cars per 1000 Population v/s per capita Domestic Product

y = 0.5855x - 3.287

R2 = 0.996

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.40 10.60

ln(PCDP)

ln(C

ars

pe

r 1

00

0 p

op

ula

tio

n)



Logarithm Chart of Mini Bus per 1000 Population v/s per capita Domestic Product

y = 1.1975x - 11.287

R2 = 0.9775

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.40 10.60

ln(PCDP)

ln(M

ini B

us p

er

1000 p

op

ula

tio

n)

Logarithm Chart of Bus per 1000 Population v/s per capita Domestic Product

y = 1.2156x - 12.161

R2 = 0.9848

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80 10.00 10.20 10.40 10.60

ln(PCDP)

ln(B

us p

er

1000 p

op

ula

tio

n)

Logarithm Chart of No. of LCV v/s Net State Domestic Product

y = 0.5817x + 5.2643

R2 = 0.9975

11.10

11.30

11.50

11.70

11.90

12.10

12.30

10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50 12.00 12.50

ln(NSDP)

ln(L

CV

)



Logarithm Chart of No. of Truck v/s Net State Domestic Product

y = 0.5949x + 5.4105

R2 = 0.9979

11.40

11.60

11.80

12.00

12.20

12.40

12.60

12.80

10.00 10.50 11.00 11.50 12.00 12.50

ln(NSDP)

ln(T

ruc

k)

Fig. 6: Elasticity by Graphical Extrapolation Method

Based on the above graphical plots, following elasticity values have been computed and considered for future traffic growth estimation, presented in Table 13 below.

Table 13: Elasticity Values

S. No. Type of Vehicle Elasticity

1 Cars/Jeep/Taxi 0.586

2 Mini Bus 1.198

3 Buses (Standard) 1.216

4 LCV 0.582

5 Trucks (2A+3A+Arti) 0.595

Projected Growth Rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP

Based on the previous trends in the growth rate of Population, NSDP and PCDP the future trend is projected (linear extrapolation) as presented in Figure 7 & Table 14

y = 701.87x - 1E+06

R2 = 0.9987

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Po

pu

lati

on



y = 20410x - 4E+07

R2 = 0.925

110000

160000

210000

260000

310000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year

NS

DP

y = 2929x - 6E+06

R2 = 0.9205

18000

23000

28000

33000

38000

43000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year

Per

Cap

ita -

NS

DP

Fig. 7: Forecast of growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP

Based on the above graphical plots, following growth rate for Population, NSDP & PCDP have been computed and considered for future traffic growth estimation, presented in Table15 below

Table 14: Forecasted growth rate of Population - NSDP- PCDP

Year Population Growth

Rate Net State Domestic

Product, NSDP Per Capita Domestic

Product, PCDP

2010-12 1.07% 9.20% 8.42%

2013-17 1.05% 8.32% 7.69%

2018-22 1.02% 7.40% 6.90%

2023-27 1.00% 6.67% 6.25%

>2028 0.98% 6.08% 5.72%

Based on the estimated elasticity values and forecast growth rate of economic variables, the future annual compound growth rates for each type of vehicle was computed using following model.

Tgr = ((1+Pgr)*(1+PCI gr)-1)*100*E

Where,

Tgr = Traffic Growth Rate

Pgr = Population Growth Rate

PCI gr = Per Capita Income Growth Rate

E = Elasticity value



The above model is primarily used for passenger vehicles and assigned equal weightage to population and per capita income. Similarly the model applied for estimating growth rate of goods vehicles is as follows:

Tgr = NSDP gr * 100*E

Where,

Tgr = Traffic Growth Rate

NSDP gr = growth rate of NSDP (in real terms)

E = Elasticity value

Table 15 and 16 presents the traffic growth rates projected based on the economic parameters of two states Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. As the project road is on the state border of Karnataka and T.N. the growth rate of traffic on the project road is calculated based on the presentation of vehicles as per the registration plate survey.

Table 15: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic - Tamil Nadu State

Elasticity 0.5855 1.1975 1.2156 0.5817 0.5949

Vehicles Car Mini Bus Bus LCV Truck

2010-12 4.9% 10.1% 10.2% 5.3% 5.5%

2013-17 4.5% 9.2% 9.4% 4.8% 5.0%

2018-22 4.0% 8.3% 8.4% 4.3% 4.4%

2023-27 3.7% 7.5% 7.6% 3.9% 4.0%

> 2028 3.3% 6.8% 7.0% 3.5% 3.6%

Table 16: Forecasted growth rate of Traffic – Karnataka State

Elasticity 1.2464 0.2826 0.9843 1.0958 1.0958

Vehicles Car Mini Bus Bus LCV Truck

2010-12 9.0% 2.0% 7.1% 9.2% 9.2%

2013-17 8.3% 1.9% 6.5% 8.3% 8.3%

2018-22 7.4% 1.7% 5.9% 7.3% 7.3%

2023-27 6.7% 1.5% 5.3% 6.6% 6.6%

2028-32 6.2% 1.4% 4.9% 6.0% 6.0%

The bifurcation of the vehicles on the project road as per the registration plate survey is presented in Table 17 below.

Table 17: Vehicles – Registration Plate

Reg. No.

Car Bus LCV 2A 3A >3A

No.s %

age No.s

% age

No.s %

age No.s

% age

No.s %

age No.s

% age

T.N. 280 63% 227 59% 75 62% 132 74% 171 62% 22 59%

KA 166 37% 155 41% 46 38% 46 26% 106 38% 15 41%

Also based on the distribution of car, bus and trucks in table 17 above, segregated growth rate for car, bus and trucks (2-Axle, 3 Axle and >3Axle trucks) are given in table 18 below.



Table 18A: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Most Likely)

Vehicle Car Mini Bus Bus LCV 2-Axle 3-Axle > 3 Axle

2010-12 9.0% 6.8% 8.9% 6.8% 6.5% 6.9% 7.0%

2013-17 8.3% 5.7% 8.2% 6.1% 5.9% 6.3% 6.3%

2018-22 7.4% 5.1% 7.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6%

2023-27 6.7% 4.6% 6.7% 4.9% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1%

>2028 6.2% 4.1% 6.1% 4.5% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%

However the project road is very near to the Metro Bengaluru which is having much higher growth as compared with the Karnataka and Tamil Nadu state, hence an optimistic approach will be to consider traffic growth rate equivalent to the GDP growth rate of Bengaluru city, as presented in table 18B below.

Table 18B: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Optimistic)


2010-12 9.0% 6.8% 8.9% 6.8% 6.9% 7.6% 7.7%

2013-17 8.3% 5.7% 8.2% 6.1% 6.3% 6.9% 7.0%

2018-22 7.4% 5.1% 7.4% 5.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.3%

2023-27 6.7% 4.6% 6.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.5% 5.6%

>2028 6.2% 4.1% 6.1% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0%

Similarly considering the worsening of economic slow down and its impact on the traffic movement will result in decline in projected growth rate.

Table 18C: Growth rate of Traffic – For revenue calculation (Pessimistic)


2010-12 5.9% 6.3% 8.4% 6.3% 6.0% 6.4% 6.5%

2013-17 5.4% 5.2% 7.7% 5.6% 5.4% 5.8% 5.8%

2018-22 4.8% 4.6% 6.9% 4.9% 4.6% 5.0% 5.1%

2023-27 4.3% 4.1% 6.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%

>2028 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1%

TRAFFIC PROJECTION

The projected traffic has been calculated based on the most likely growth rate scenario presented in the table 18a above. Table 19 presents the projected traffic at the toll plaza location.

Table 19 : Traffic Projection - Toll Plaza at km 87+500

Years Financial

Year Ending

Car/Van/ Jeep/ Sumo

Mini Bus

Bus Tempo/

LCV

TRUCK PCU (Total) 2 -

Axle 3 -

Axle >3

Axle

Base Year 2011

6269 101 3275 3047 3028 4963 813 48447

1 2012 6671 108 3567 3254 3225 5306 869 51917

2 2013 7098 115 3884 3475 3434 5672 930 55641

3 2014 7516 122 4203 3680 3637 6029 989 59276



4 2015 7960 129 4547 3898 3851 6409 1051 63153

5 2016 8429 136 4920 4127 4079 6813 1117 67288

6 2017 8927 144 5323 4371 4319 7242 1188 71699

7 2018 9453 152 5760 4629 4574 7698 1263 76404

8 2019 9954 160 6186 4865 4807 8122 1333 80838

9 2020 10482 168 6644 5113 5052 8569 1408 85535

10 2021 11038 177 7136 5374 5310 9040 1487 90511

11 2022 11623 186 7664 5648 5581 9537 1570 95784

12 2023 12239 195 8231 5936 5866 10062 1658 101371

13 2024 12826 204 8782 6215 6141 10565 1743 106761

14 2025 13442 214 9371 6507 6430 11093 1832 112445

15 2026 14087 223 9999 6813 6732 11648 1925 118438

16 2027 14763 234 10668 7133 7048 12230 2023 124758

17 2028 15472 244 11383 7468 7380 12841 2126 131422

18 2029 16153 254 12078 7782 7690 13419 2224 137775

19 2030 16863 265 12814 8109 8013 14023 2326 144443

20 2031 17605 276 13596 8449 8349 14654 2433 151442

21 2032 18380 287 14425 8804 8700 15314 2545 158788

22 2033 19189 299 15305 9174 9065 16003 2662 166499

23 2034 20033 311 16239 9559 9446 16723 2785 174594

24 2035 20914 324 17230 9961 9843 17475 2913 183093

MILLION STANDARD AXLE (MSA) CALCULATION FOR PAVEMENT DESIGN

As suggested in the IRC: SP: 84 – 2009 and Manual for 6 laning, clause 5.5.4, traffic growth rate for the calculation of design traffic shall be calculated realistically but shall not be less than 5%. Hence suitably a 5% growth rate for all types of vehicles has been considered.

Vehicle Damage Factors (VDF) taken for calculation of MSA is adopted from the Design Report by planning consultant. For ready reference table 20 below presents the VDF values adopted.

Table 20: VDF Values adopted in MSA calculations

Vehicles Bus LGV 2-Axle 3-Axle >3-Axle

VDF Adopted 0.36 0.36 3.6 4.53 5.21

From traffic and pavement design point of view, the project road has been kept in one homogeneous sections. Table 21 below presents the MSA Calculations.

Table 21: Million Standard Axle Calculation.

Sr. No Year Yearly MSA Cum MSA Design MSA Remarks

1 2011

2 2012

3 2013

1 2014 18 18 5 6 Lane Complete

2 2015 19 36 11

3 2016 20 56 17

4 2017 21 76 23

5 2018 22 98 29 5 years

6 2019 23 120 36

7 2020 24 144 43

8 2021 25 169 51



9 2022 26 195 59

10 2023 27 223 67 10 years

11 2024 29 252 76

12 2025 30 282 85

13 2026 32 314 94

14 2027 33 347 104

15 2028 35 382 115 15 years

16 2029 37 419 126

17 2030 39 458 137

18 2031 41 498 150

19 2032 43 541 162

20 2033 45 586 176 20 Years

21 2034 47 633 190

22 2035 49 682 205

23 2036 52 734 220

24 2037 54 788 237

25 2038 57 846 254 25 Years

Hence for design of pavement 115 MSA has been adopted.

traffic report nh 7

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