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Transforming Post 16 Education in Caerphilly

Executive Summary and DRAFT Strategic Outline Case (SOC)

Please note: The executive summary (Chapter 1) contains the final recommendations

of the SOC Focus group as agreed on September 15 2010.

The remainder of the document is still in draft form, and is distributed for review and

comment. There are still some gaps. Corrections or suggestions for improvement

may be incorporated at a later stage.

Prepared by: DE/AW

Version No: 1.5

Issue Date: 09/11/10

Version: 1.5 DE/AW of 62

Date: 09/11/10

Foreword

The strategic outline case (SOC) is submitted on behalf of the Caerphilly 14-19 Learning

partnership Network. The SOC has been developed in conjunction with a focus group of

representatives from schools and colleges and David Eynon and Alan Whiteman from

Caerphilly CBC.

The SOC has been prepared using the agreed standards and format for business cases, as

set out by HM Treasury and Welsh Assembly Government. The approved format is the Five

Case Model, which comprises the following key components:

•••• The strategic case section. This sets out the strategic context and the case for change, together with the supporting investment objectives for the scheme.

•••• The economic case section. This demonstrates that the organisation has selected a preferred way forward, which best meets the existing and future needs of the service and is likely to optimise value for money (VFM).

•••• The commercial case section. This outlines what any potential deal might look like.

•••• The financial case section. This highlights likely funding and affordability issues and the potential balance sheet treatment of the scheme.

•••• The management case section. This demonstrates that the scheme is achievable and can be delivered successfully in accordance with accepted best practice.


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Contents 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... 6

2.0 THE STRATEGIC CASE ..................................................................................................................... 12

3.0 THE ECONOMIC CASE ...................................................................................................................... 41

4.0 THE COMMERCIAL CASE ................................................................................................................ 53

5.0 THE FINANCIAL CASE ...................................................................................................................... 55

6.0 THE MANAGEMENT CASE ............................................................................................................... 58

Annexes

Annex A – Caerphilly’s current learning partnerships

Annex B – Travel times and distances between institutions

Annex C – A proposed model for partnership federation


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Tables

Table 1: Business scope ....................................................................................................... 8

Table 2: Assessment of scoping options ............................................................................. 10

Table 3: Caerphilly Partnerships ......................................................................................... 13

Table 4: Budget for Education and Leisure for 2009/2010 ................................................... 19

Table 5: Projections for Student Places 2009 – 2017 .......................................................... 22

Table 6: Investment objectives, measures and targets ........................................................ 27

Table 7: School/Pupil Projections ........................................................................................ 29

Table 8: Investment objectives, current positions and business needs ................................ 31

Table 9: Business scope and key service requirements ...................................................... 34

Table 10: Investment objectives and benefit criteria ............................................................ 35

Table 11: Risks and counter measures ............................................................................... 38

Table 13: Summary assessment of service solutions options .............................................. 48

Table 14: Summary assessment of service delivery options ............................................... 49

Table 15: Summary assessment of implementation options ................................................ 50

Table 16: Summary of inclusions, exclusions and possible options ..................................... 51

Table 17: Assumptions on capital and revenue costs .......................................................... 56

Table 18: Milestones ........................................................................................................... 59

Figures

Figure 1: Geographical representation of Partnerships ....................................................... 14

Figure 2: Caerphilly Local Education Authority .................................................................... 17

Figure 3: Caerphilly Partners ............................................................................................... 18

Figure 4: Secondary School Catchment Areas .................................................................... 20

Figure 5: Secondary School Pupil Projections ..................................................................... 30

Version: 1.5 DE of 62

Date: 09/11/10

1.0 Executive Summary

1.1 Introduction

This Strategic Outline Case (SOC) considers a range of alternative models for the future

delivery of secondary and post 16 education and training in Caerphilly County Borough

Council and evaluates the relative advantages, disadvantages and risks.

This business case sets out the current issues with provision and the strategy which has

been adopted to overcome them. It shows the alternative options which have been

considered in order to resolve these issues and the preferred way forward.

This SOC does not seek any monetary investment. Successfully implementing the preferred

option will require funding which will be requested from the Welsh Assembly Government

(WAG) through separate paths mentioned in the document.

1.2 Strategic case

Caerphilly’s mission of ‘promoting a culture of lifelong learning’ is paramount in bringing

about the change to increase the numbers of those in work and improve the skills and

knowledge of the young people and the current workforce.

Furthermore, to drive forward improvements in the education and training infrastructure,

consideration needs to be given as to how the efficiency, flexibility and effectiveness of both

providers and the network, as a whole, can be improved.

The core vision of the Caerphilly’s 14-19 Network is to create an efficient and effective 14-

19 Learning Network that provides all learners with a wide range of relevant, high

quality, learning opportunities that equip each individual with the skills, knowledge

and understanding necessary for them to achieve their full potential in society.

This will be facilitated by first class learner support and guidance that ensures that learner

participation, learner well being and learner outcomes are maximised.

The basis for the case for change is centred on the following key issues:

•••• Breadth of provision: An increasing need to roll out the Learning Pathways entitlement and improve opportunities for vocational and skills based provision.

•••• Collaboration: Addressing barriers to collaboration will lead to higher levels of

collaboration between providers and will extend choice and flexibility of provision.

•••• Value for Money: Efficiency and effectiveness savings are necessary to pay for the increase in participation and performance required to meet the WAG targets for 2010-2015.


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The six investment objectives underlying the case for change are listed below:

1. Maximise the local 14-16 and post 16 curricula including a wide range of vocational options at levels 2 and 3.

2. Deliver high quality provision and outcomes with a particular emphasis on basic skills.

3. Develop skills for the Welsh economy within the global market

4. Strengthen the Welsh culture and ethos across all providers

5. Increase the opportunity to follow courses through the medium of Welsh

6. Seek efficiency and, value for money

Our Transformation proposals need to be considered in the wider context of the current 21st Century Schools programme, which has identified the following 4 Key Principles following consultation with stakeholders: Principle 1: Develop buildings, facilities and environments that are fit for purpose for the 21st century Principle 2: Use integrated information communication technology (ICT) to transform learning experiences for children, young people and the community Principle 3: Organise schools more efficiently and cost effectively Principle 4: Continue 14-19 transformation These four principles are underpinned by the following core aims: • Raise standards and increase well being and opportunities for all learners.

• Meet demand for Welsh Medium and Faith provision.

• Explore the potential for different age ranges of schools.

• Explore the use of Federated and collaborative arrangements, particularly in smaller schools.

• Improve access to play, sport and leisure, thereby developing more healthy lifestyles.

• Achieve co-location of other services on school sites, thereby improving facilities for the wider community, in conjunction with the Community Focus schools and Healthy Schools’ strategies.

• Build on and develop good practice where it already exists.

• Reduce Council revenue costs through greater value for money and cost effectiveness.


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Fulfilling these core aims should result in: • Substantially reducing surplus school places

• Providing an ICT infrastructure to transform teaching and learning and thereby improve outcomes.

• Improving the condition of all school buildings and facilities to an A or B rating, to meet the needs of learners in the 21st century.

• Reviewing school catchment areas in line with school rationalisation. Where relevant and appropriate our Transformation proposals will align with 21st Century Schools aims and outcomes.

The business scope outlined in the table below provides the range within which options are

considered in the economic case. The proposed initiatives identified within this document will

seek to address all of these requirements.

Table 1: Business scope

Service

Requirements

Business Scope and Key Service Requirements

Core

(minimum)

•••• Improved outcomes for learners at Level 2 and Key Stage 4.

•••• Better participation rates post-16 in both schools and colleges.

•••• To meet the minimum requirements of the Learning & Skills measure by

further collaboration between the schools, FE colleges, work-based

providers and the voluntary

•••• More cost effective delivery.

•••• Expanded joint governance arrangements

•••• Alignment with 21st Century Schools strategy.

Desirable

(Intermediate)

•••• A common learner tracker system.

•••• Appointment of a Keeping In Touch (KIT) Coordinator

•••• Improved ICT provision for pupils, parents and the wider community

Optional

(Maximum)

•••• To develop all existing learning settings to create education and

community facilities that reflect the needs of education and training in

the 21st Century


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1.3 Economic case

To fulfil the business scope, the following options were considered:

Option 1: ‘Do Minimum’ - Maintain existing collaboration between schools and

colleges via joint timetabling

This option continues current “loose alliances” in the form of four existing partnerships (3

English medium, 1 Welsh medium). Two of the English medium partnerships involve 11-18

schools and the College, Ystrad Mynach, the third English medium partnership is a long

established tertiary system between 11-16 schools and Coleg Gwent Crosskeys, and the

Welsh medium partnership is a cross-border collaboration between two 11-18 schools. At

present the Welsh medium partnership has a formally constituted joint committee of

governance, and the English medium partnerships have regular management meetings and

agreed protocols. Existing collaborative arrangements in Caerphilly have been cited as an

example of good practice in school/college partnership through joint timetabling.

Option 2: ‘Intermediate’ - Establish “harder” federated arrangements based on

existing or revised partnerships

This would involve the setting up of a strategic management group for each partnership

including governor representatives from each of the partner institutions. These groups

would make strategic decisions relating to the future developments of the partnerships

including curriculum change, finance, transport, and could manage post 16 delegated

funding. More strategic governance would allow difficult issues such as curriculum

rationalisation to be addressed. This option does not preclude an eventual move towards a

fuller tertiary system

(Note: Earlier drafts of the SOC contained an extra option as Option 3, which included

proposals for Welsh Medium reorganisation to meet the forecast demand for additional

Welsh Medium places. As these proposals were rejected by WAG following a Tranche 3

bid, this option is now discounted, and has been incorporated into the 21st Century School

strategy currently under consultation.)

Option 3: ‘Intermediate’ - Full tertiary system in Islwyn. One sixth form centre in

Rhymney Valley/Caerphilly Basin

The tertiary system in Islwyn would be further developed. One sixth form centre would be

established in the Rhymney Valley/Caerphilly Basin (managed by joint governance –see

above). This would require either the re-designation of an existing school in the middle of

the valley or a new build in the same area, possibly on the college site.

Sixth form students are retained on their original school roll but the delivery of all general

subjects at level three would take place at the sixth form centre and all vocational subjects at

the College, Ystrad Mynach. Delivery would be by school and college staff.


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Option 4: ‘Maximum’ - Full tertiary across CCBC. Close all 6th forms. Increase FE

capacity with new build. Further school closures

This would establish a full tertiary system across the authority. This would involve the

closure of all schools’ sixth forms in Caerphilly with all post 16 students educated in Coleg

Gwent Crosskeys and an extended FE college at Ystrad Mynach.

The options were scored in a series of focus group workshops held with school and college

representatives from the Network wherein the investment objectives and critical success

factions were proposed and agreed. Members of the focus group scored the four options

independently, and the results were then collated as follows:

Table 2: Assessment of scoping options


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Following discussion and scoring of options on 15 September, the SOC focus group

proposed that the ‘preferred’ option should be either option 3 or option 4, and that

option 2 (‘federation’) should be implemented from September 2011 as a necessary

interim stage. Full implementation of the final preferred option by September 2014.

To successfully deliver the investment objectives and business needs the solution to deliver

the proposal will require 3 major changes:

i. Joint Governance to oversee future partnership and collaboration arrangements. This will be set up through developing the existing partnership arrangements into more formally constituted Partnership Federations. The detailed purpose, values, functions and strategic operational matters of these Federations are outlined in Annex C.

ii. ICT implementation In order to enhance existing facilities and make the future workforce ready for the 21st Century technology-rich teaching and learning environment, CCBC has developed a new ICT strategy. Implementation will be managed through the 21st Century Schools programme. Please refer to the ICT Learning Strategy document.

iii. Remodelling of learning settings; this will be delivered through the 21st Century schools programme and the Further Education Institutions (FEI) own modernisation and development programmes. Final details will depend on the outcomes of current consultations and further feasibility studies under the OBC.

1.4 Commercial Case

There will be no procurement progressed through this SOC. A robust management structure

to drive and implement the Federation is outlined in the management case.

1.5 Financial case

Costs involved in setting up and running Joint Governance will be met from CCBC’s 14-19

development revenue budget. .Please also refer to the ICT Learning Strategy document and

to the OBC for 21st Century School.

1.6 Management case

Joint Governance will be in place by September 2011 and will be the way forward from that

date. It will be driven forward and managed by CCBC’s current staff. The whole process will

be overseen by the Director of Education and Leisure.

Signed:

Date: 18 January 2011

Senior Responsible Owner

Project team


Date: 09/11/10

2.0 The Strategic Case

2.1 Introduction

The purpose of this section is to explain and revisit how the scope of the proposed project by

Caerphilly Country Council fits within the existing business strategies of DCELLS and the

Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) and provides a compelling case for change, in terms of

the existing and future educational and operational needs of the post 16 education in

Caerphilly.

2.2 Part A: The strategic context

In considering local authority proposals to reorganise schools in a locality, WAG will give

priority to the best interests of learners and the wider community. The Learning Country:

Vision into Action made it clear that future decisions on the allocation of funding for capital

investment would increasingly require local authorities to plan strategically. The 21st Century

Schools programme is designed to support local authorities to develop new and innovative

approaches to school provision, which put the learner at the centre of development. This

SOC is in parallel to the 21st Century Schools programme and has strongly reinforced this

principle.

2.3 Organisational Overview

Caerphilly County Borough, the fifth largest unitary authority in Wales, is located in the mid

valleys corridor and has an increasingly strategic location between Wales’ dynamic capital

and the regenerating Heads of the Valleys area. The county is made up of 50 relatively

small, mainly former coal mining communities and characterised by small towns and villages

that are surrounded by an attractive backdrop of large open rural areas.

The Borough was formed as a Unitary Authority in April 1996 following the Local

Government Reorganisation in Wales. It represented an amalgamation of two district

councils - Islwyn and Rhymney Valley, and part of Gwent and Mid Glamorgan County

Councils.

The population of 171,300 is settled in and around these numerous towns and villages and

is typical of many valleys areas where the population trend of increasing numbers of pension

age and above and fewer children, is shaped through the region’s coal-mining and steel-

making history. Approximately 54,300 children and young people from birth up to the age of

24, live in the borough.

A particular challenge within Caerphilly borough is its physical geography, with some

localities finding access to services problematical due to poor transport links. The borough

has two colleges of Further Education, Ystrad Mynach and Coleg Gwent-Cross Keys

Campus and is supported by two Careers Wales Companies, Careers Mid-Glam and

Careers Gwent.


Date: 09/11/10

As a result, collaborative working presents particular challenges and opportunities. Therefore

the Local Authority’s strategy has been to develop collaborative work through the

three existing area English-Medium partnerships (detailed in the table below) that came

into being several years ago, and a cross Local Authority (LA) border Welsh-Medium

partnership between Caerphilly and Torfaen. Central support for learner travel has been

a key feature in the success of collaborative working so far, and has significant financial

implications. All schools and colleges are active participants in partnership working.

Table 3: Caerphilly Partnerships

Mid and Upper

Rhymney Valley

Collegium

Islwyn Partnership:

Caerphilly Basin

Partnership

Welsh Medium

Partnership

Pre and Post 16

collaboration through

Common Timetabling

Pre collaboration through

Common Timetabling (from

2010)

Post 16 collaboration at

transition

Pre and Post 16

collaboration through

Common Timetabling

Pre and Post 16

collaboration

through jointly

employed

teaching staff

1. Lewis School

Pengam

2. Lewis Girls’ School

3. Heolddu

Comprehensive

School

4. Rhymney High

School

5. The College, Ystrad

Mynach

6. Ysgol Gyfun Cwm

Rhymni*

7. Trinity Fields***

8. Blackwood

Comprehensive School

9. Oakdale Comprehensive

School

10. Newbridge


11. Pontllanfraith


12. Risca Comprehensive

School

13. Cwmcarn High School*

14. Coleg Gwent Cross-keys

Campus


16. Bedwas High School

17. St Cenydd

Community School

18. St Martins

Comprehensive

School

19. The College, Ystrad

Mynach


21. Ysgol Gyfun Cwm

Rhymni*

22. Ysgol Gyfun

Cwm Rhymni

23. Ysgol Gyfun

Gwynlliw

(Torfaen

CCBC)

24. Trinity

Fields***

* Cwmcarn High (Foundation) School attends Headteacher meetings and DEPNET meetings with the

Islwyn Group

** Ysgol Gyfun Cwm Rhymni also works closely with both post-16 partnerships

*** Trinity Fields Special School works closely with all partnerships


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Figure 1 provides an overview of the partnership representing the three geographical areas

and the Welsh medium partnership.

Figure 1: Geographical representation of Partnerships

2.3.1 Strategic Aims and Objectives

Caerphilly’s heavy engineering industries provided employment for many past generations

and low technology manufacturing provided a suitable replacement in recent years.

However, Caerphilly, along with many other counties in the region, must now switch to high

value-added manufacturing and services. This will require a workforce with advanced skills

and a commitment to lifelong learning. Capitalising on its advantageous location within the

capital conurbation and other opportunities offered by the hardy rural setting will support the

county to achieve its high-value, high-growth ambitions.

To achieve these ambitions, many challenges lie ahead. None more so, than by reducing

the levels of deprivation and increasing social inclusion across the area. With deprivation

affecting relatively large numbers of wards, regeneration of these areas by improving

housing, health and providing better skills and jobs, will be essential to improve the

economic viability of the area. In order to bring about this turn around, it will be necessary to

raise the low economic activity rates, lower high long-term illness levels and reduce relatively


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high unemployment affecting the area. Improving employability skills and those specialist

skills required by local employers will effect this change.

Caerphilly’s mission of ‘promoting a culture of lifelong learning’ is paramount in bringing

about the change to increase the numbers of those in work and improve the skills and

knowledge of the young people and the current workforce.

Furthermore, to drive forward improvements in the education and training infrastructure,

consideration needs to be given as to how the efficiency, flexibility and effectiveness of both

providers and the network, as a whole, can be improved.

Caerphilly regularly reviews its learning network to ensure the provision of suitable education

and training for all learners. Reorganisation of the network in recent years has resulted in

the closure of two comprehensive schools, St Ilan (in July 2007), and Bedwellty (in July

2005), and the replacement of two existing comprehensive schools with new builds, Lewis

Pengam and Ysgol Gyfun Cwm Rhymni. This has led to an overall net loss of two

comprehensive schools in the county borough. Additionally, the 14-19 Network has been a

forerunner of collaborative consortia working, utilising joint timetabling across a number of

schools.

If the network is to continue to provide high quality relevant learning, further reviewing the

configuration of the providers and increasing levels of collaboration will be necessary.

Having taken account of the data for learning attainment in the Caerphilly LA and Wales,

international comparisons, through the Programme for International Student Assessment

(PISA) and evidence provided to Webb, Caerphilly County Borough Council is committed to

supporting the Welsh Assembly Government policy of establishing geographic Learning

Partnerships.

The Learning Partnerships plan to implement changes that are capable of supporting the

improvements outlined in the recent Evidence Based Review (EBR). These will include:

•••• Ensuring that partnership work is pivotal and that it drives the agenda;

•••• Ensuring that access is available to connected ‘Learning Places’ rather than just

schools;

•••• Raising aspirations and attainment;

•••• Providing relevant vocational training and post-16 education;

•••• Continuing the emphasis on basic skills development, including information and

communication technologies;

•••• Promoting lifelong learning and skills for all ages and groups;

•••• Providing the skills required for global business;

•••• Ensuring the provision of learning opportunities for disadvantaged groups; and

•••• Rationalisation of student transport.


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Specifically the objective of the council is to work with its partners to address the following

key indicators of performance:

•••• An improvement in levels of basic skills;

•••• An increase in the rate of 16-18 participation in education, training and employment;

•••• An increase in the rate of 19-24 participation in education, training and employment;

•••• An increase in overall learner success rates, reflecting higher levels of learner

completion as well as the achievement of qualification aims;

•••• An increase in Level 2 and 3 qualifications;

•••• An increase in Level 4 qualifications; and

•••• An increase in progression to higher level learning or higher level employment.

2.3.2 Current activities, service stakeholders and customers

14-19 education in Caerphilly is delivered to approximately 10,000 young people through:

• Seven 11-18 Community schools;

• One 11-18 Welsh medium school;

• One 11-18 Foundation school;

• Five 11-16 Community schools;

• Four smaller learning establishments;

• One Special School;

• Two Further Education colleges, and

• A variety of work based learning providers.


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Figure 2: Caerphilly Local Education Authority


Date: 09/11/10

The 4 mainstream secondary schools within Caerphilly County Borough were attended by

12,513 young people in January 2008. Current demand for Welsh secondary places is met

by one secondary school, Ysgol Gyfun Cwm Rhymni. Roman Catholic secondary education

is provided by transfer from St. Helen’s RC Primary school to Cardinal Newman RC

Comprehensive School in Rhondda Cynon Taff LA.

Nine of the schools are 11-18 comprehensives, with sixth forms of varying sizes, located in

the Caerphilly Basin and Rhymney Valley (also including one based in the Islwyn valley).

The other five comprehensive schools are 11-16, with students wishing to continue study

post 16 transferring to one of the two FE colleges: the College, Ystrad Mynach; or Coleg

Gwent, Crosskeys Campus, or to an 11-18 school in the same area.

Collaborative working post 16 has been taking place for several years, with over 900 school

sixth form students in the Caerphilly Basin and Rhymney Valley currently offered level three

courses at other schools, and a smaller number of students in the Islwyn area accessing

courses post 16 via the well-established Crosskeys tertiary partnership.

The success of these arrangements was recognised in the WAG paper ‘Transforming

Education and Training in Wales’ and described as an example of good practice, and will be

underpin our proposals for the development and reconfiguration of the Caerphilly Learning

Partnership.

Figure 3: Caerphilly Partners

A number of link courses involving FE partners are already in place for pre -16 students; with

over 450 involved this year. All schools are involved in collaborative work with local

colleges, and are developing links with Work Based Learning (WBL) providers via the

network. Regular meetings of the Headteachers (Strategic) and the Curriculum Managers


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support the work of the three Area Partnerships. The Curriculum Managers also meet

collectively on a regular basis (DEPNET Group) to ensure that a consistent county-wide

approach is maintained. Representatives of both colleges play a full part in all discussions,

as they do in the meetings of the Caerphilly LAN. The readiness of all partners to play a

positive role in collaborative development has been a major factor in any successes so far;

and is a crucial element in future progress.

The LEA’s budget for 2009/2010 has been £121,756,054 (excluding grant income) and £130

million including grants. Budget for secondary schools is £50,569,000 (including DCELLS

post-16 grant and BSF fund).

Table 4: Budget for Education and Leisure for 2009/2010


Date: 09/11/10

Figure 4: Secondary School Catchment Areas


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2.4 Business strategies

2.4.1 The National Context

The SOC is underpinned by the key policy and strategy themes of the Welsh Assembly

Government outlined below:

1. One Vision Wales with its focus on reaching learners, social justice, economic productivity and new technology.

2. The Learning Country which emphasised the importance of a continual focus on improving educational performance, the Welsh language, flexible learning pathways for young people aged 14-19, increasing participation rates at 19 plus and reducing the numbers who are not in employment, education or training between the ages of 16-18.

3. Welsh-medium Education Strategy establishing a holistic and sustainable infrastructure to support and develop Welsh-medium education and training, from nursery through to further and higher education.

4. Delivering Skills that Work for Wales making it clear that in Wales we need to work together to build the skills for a modern 21st century economy at 14-19, but also in our view with adult learners.

5. 14-19 Learning Pathways requiring the development of flexible pathways that provide relevant, interesting and purposeful education.

6. The Learning & Skills Measure (LSM) underpinning the 14-19 Learning Pathways with its focus on learning pathways that meet the needs of each learner, a wider choice and flexibility of programmes and ways of learning, a learning core from 14 to 19, learning coach support, personal support and impartial careers advice.

7. The National Basic Skills Strategy highlighting the challenges in Wales and, in particular, the impact this has on learners’ career options.

8. Transforming schools with ICT emphasising the role of technology in school-based learning.

9. The School Effectiveness Framework introducing a systemic approach to the relationship between the Welsh Assembly government, schools and councils and the core themes of systemic thinking, equality, being supportive and interdependent, a high performance culture and bilingualism.

10. Making the Connections requiring services to collaborate to bring a clearer focus upon the citizen and meeting his or her needs.


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11. Poverty an issue which ’Tackling Child Poverty in Wales’ (Child Poverty Network Cymru) report concluded has an impact on the vast majority of schools in Wales, but which the ‘Narrowing the Gap’ report also concluded does not necessarily lead to poor performance.

2.4.2 Population and Transport

Projections of the population within the borough show a slight increase but below the rate

projected for the whole of Wales. However there are changes within the overall population

as follows

•••• The total population of the county borough is projected to increase by 12,800 (7.5%) by 2030/31. This is below the average population growth (14.1%) projected to be seen across all Welsh local authorities.

•••• It is projected that more growth will be seen in the male population (8.9%) than the female population (6.1%).

•••• The most recent actual data show that births in the county borough have seen an upward trend since 2001/02. This trend is expected to continue in the initial years of the projection and births are expected to follow the general pattern seen across all local authorities in Wales.

Infrastructure has recently been improved with the building of new roads. There is better

transport for the community. This also provides students with the opportunity to take up

courses offered at various locations.

Projections illustrated in Table 5 for student places indicate that a rise in surplus secondary

school places in the borough will continue to 2017 (surplus of 24%).

Table 5: Projections for Student Places 2009 – 2017

Capacity

2009

Surplus Places/Excess Pupils Pupil

No.s in

2017

% Surplus

Places in

2017 2009 2013 2017

Caerphilly Basin 3,248 208 285 454 2,794 14%

Upper Rhymney Valley 4,406 716 919 1,335 3,071 30%

Islwyn 4,649 1,189 1,496 1,774 2,875 38%

Foundation School 949 48 170 197 752 21%

Welsh Medium School 1,448 153 (28) (289) 1,737 (20%)

Total Surplus Places 14,700 2,314 2,870 3,760 11,229 26%

Net Surplus Places 14,700 2,314 2,842 3,471 11,229 24%


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2.4.3 Education for Life

The Community Strategy clearly sets the council’s ‘Education for Life’ vision; the objectives

to realise this vision are:

•••• Develop learning opportunities for all ages and abilities with an emphasis on

community-based opportunities;

•••• Ensure children and young people have a foundation that enables them to take

advantage of all life opportunities;

•••• Enhance education and training opportunities for 14-19 year olds and improve

standards;

•••• Provide advice and information on all public and voluntary sector services;

•••• Raise awareness and use of the Welsh language;

•••• Increase appreciation of environmental assets and utilise their potential for enhanced

quality of life and sustainable tourism opportunities;

•••• Increase opportunities for and participation in leisure, sport, cultural and arts activities.

2.4.4 Children and Young People’s Plan (CYPP)

Caerphilly’s CYPP aims to ensure that all pupils and particularly those who are vulnerable,

have an education that enables them to achieve recognised qualifications in line with their

potential and national expectations.

•••• Core Aim 2: Have a comprehensive range of education and learning opportunities;

•••• Core Aim 3: To enjoy the best possible health and are free from abuse, victimisation

and exploitation;

•••• Core Aim 4: Have access to play, sport, leisure and cultural activities.

Based on the Core Aims above, the key issues to address in relation to the commissioning

and development of service in the future will be:

•••• School improvement – to expand partnership working and extend the work of area link

advisers;

•••• Investment in school buildings linked with planning and school places;

•••• Match supply of school places to the number of pupils in the locality taking account of

parental preference and pupil need, including preference for Welsh medium education;

•••• Synergy between education and training.

2.4.5 Improvement Plan

Building better communities, the targets for Caerphilly for 2009-2012 are:

•••• Increased numbers of children and young people have access to good quality support

for basic skills;


Date: 09/11/10

•••• There will be greater availability and range of choices of learning offered to young

people;

•••• Learners at 16 achieve greater success;

•••• The percentage of 16/17 year old students continuing in full-time education, training or

employment increases year-on-year;

•••• All learning settings meet current and known future requirements to facilitate learning in

the 21st century.

2.4.6 14-19 Learning Pathways – 3 Year Strategy

The core vision of the Caerphilly’s 14-19 Network is to create an efficient and effective 14-

19 Learning Network that provides all learners with a wide range of relevant, high

quality, learning opportunities that equip each individual with the skills, knowledge

and understanding necessary for them to achieve their full potential in society.

This will be facilitated by first class learner support and guidance that ensures that learner

participation, learner well being and learner outcomes are maximised. Four objectives

underlying the strategy are:

1. An improvement in overall learner success rates at Key Stage 4 and post 16.

2. All schools and colleges to meet the requirements of the Learning and Skills Measure in

Key Stage 4 for students in Year 10 in September 2010, and for students in Year 12 in

September 2011.

3. To acquire, install and utilise Partnership Exchange in all partnership schools and

colleges by September 2012 or earlier if possible; To work with the CYPP and Careers

Wales to track learners more effectively through Keeping in Touch strategy and

coordination.

4. To continue the alignment and convergence of 14-19 activities with CYPP Core Aim 2

priorities and objectives.

The targets set out in the plan are:

1. The percentage of 15 year olds achieving the Level 2 threshold to reach 65% by 2013

(2009 baseline: 55%); The percentage of 17 year olds entering a volume equivalent to 2

A levels achieving the Level 3 Threshold to reach 98.5% by 2013 (2009 baseline:

97.5%).

2. All schools and colleges to offer a minimum of 30 level 2 courses, including at least 5

vocational ones, in KS4 for students in Year 10 in September 2010, and 30 Level 3

courses, including at least 5 vocational ones, for students in Year 12 in September

2011.


Date: 09/11/10

3. Acquisition of a student tracking system in line with procurement regulations by January

2011; installation beginning in December 2010; Agreement of KIT Coordinator job

description by August 2010; appointment of KIT Coordinator by end of Deptember 2010.

4. Coordination of LAN and Core Aim 2 meetings, priorities and objectives by March 2010,

and ongoing thereafter. ‘Match’ between ANDP priorities and the next CYP Plan in

March 2011.

2.4.7 Caerphilly NEETS Strategy

THE NEET strategy has been created as a result of a series of working-party meetings

(Keeping in Touch strategy group) involving a wide range of staff across different agencies in

a multi-disciplinary approach in order to harmonise use of resources and maximise impact in

decreasing the number of NEETs in Caerphilly. The strategy in Caerphilly aims to address

the issue in two ways:

•••• By encouraging young people to remain in education or training through targeted

support and the offer of a suitable curriculum;

•••• By ensuring that when young people do become NEET they are tracked and supported

to become re-engaged; Caerphilly in the process of implementing a NEET tracking

system.

2.4.8 School Premises, Asset Management

In December 2009, ESTYN reported:

The local authority has a good track record in reducing its number of schools in order to manage its surplus places. However, there is still 20.4% surplus capacity in primary schools and 15% in secondary schools. The local authority has identified short-term priorities to address overcapacity but there is no mid to long-term whole-authority plan to address surplus places. The authority currently meets the demand for Welsh-medium provision. It has identified the future need for additional Welsh-medium provision in the secondary sector. It is currently considering options to address this need. The authority has up-to-date information on the condition of its school buildings, and is currently collecting information on suitability and sufficiency. However, as the authority’s information is not complete or fully up to date, it does not know the capital investment needed to meet its corporate commitment to bring all school buildings up

to standard by 2022.


Date: 09/11/10

2.5 Part B: The case for change

The key indicators driving the case for change based on the recent Evidence Based Review

(EBR) are:

1. Indicator 1: Population and Educational Places

•••• The population of 14 – 19 year olds is set to decrease by 9.4% between the years

2007 and 2031;

•••• Utilised capacity within the schools sector is forecast to fall to around three quarters

by 2017 ie 84% of available capacity will be utilised in 2009 and this will fall to 76% by

2017;

•••• However, within Welsh medium schools, forecasts suggest a shortfall of 20% in the

number of places available by 2013.

2. Indicator 2: Net Migration and Indicator 3 – Learner Numbers and Cohort Size

•••• There is a negative net migration figure for the schools sector. Analysis suggests that

this is due to Caerphilly learners attending faith based and Welsh medium schools in

neighbouring authorities;

•••• Roughly 13% of all further education learning activities by Caerphilly domiciled

learners were undertaken at institutions outside the local authority area;

•••• There are more learning activities undertaken at further education institutions in

Caerphilly by learners not resident in the local authority than there were by Caerphilly

learners at institutions outside of their home county;

•••• The forecast shortage of Welsh medium provision in the county is being fully

addressed through proposals in the 21st Century Schools strategy.

3. Indicator 6 – Estate

o Data provided by Caerphilly County Borough Council indicates that 27% of the school

estate was in poor condition at the time of the last property survey.

Ensuring that partnership working drives the agenda, the Council’s strategy is to address

the key issues namely:

1. Provide relevant vocational training and post-16 education;

2. Continue the emphasis on basic skills development, including information and

communication technologies;

3. Address the potential shortage of Welsh-medium places;

4. Address surplus learning places.


Date: 09/11/10

2.6 Investment objectives

The investment objectives for this project are illustrated in the tables below:

Table 6: Investment objectives, measures and targets

Investment Objective Measure Target

1. Maximise the local 14-16

and post 16 curricula

including a wide range of

vocational options at

levels 2 and 3.

i. The number and range of

level 2 and 3 courses

available in each

partnership area

i. All local curricula exceed

requirements of Learning

and Skills Measure (LSM)

by Sept 2011

ii. The participation rate and

pattern for the extended

provision

ii. Annual increase in

participation rate from level

established in Sept 2011

2. Deliver high quality

provision and outcomes

with a particular emphasis

on basic skills

i. The percentage of lesson

observations at KS 4 and

post 16 graded 1 or 2

i. All lessons to be graded

good or better by end

2011-2012 academic

year

ii. The percentage of 18

year olds achieving the

Level 3 threshold

ii. 97% of 17 year old pupils

entering a volume

equivalent to 2 A Levels

achieve the Level 3

threshold in 2011

iii. The percentage of work-

based learners

completing full

frameworks (apprentices)

iii. 80% full framework

completion by Aug 2012

iv. The percentage of WBL

Skill build learners

achieving an

NVQ/appropriate

progression

iv. 60% completion by Aug

2012

v. The percentage of 16

year olds achieving the

Level 2 threshold

v. 65% of 16 year olds

achieving the Level 2

threshold by 2013

vi. Results in Basic Skills

tests

vi. 60% of 16 year olds to

reach level 2 in Literacy

and Numeracy by 2016


Date: 09/11/10


3. Develop skills for the

Welsh economy within the

global market

i. The percentage of young

people aged 16-17

becoming NEET

i. Reduced to 4% by 2012

ii. Progression rates from

level 1 to 2

ii.

iii. Progression rates from

level 2 to 3

iii. 70% by 2012

iv. Vocational courses

available at level 3 which

align with the Welsh

Assembly’s sector

economic priorities

iv. To offer at least one

Level 3 vocational course

in each of the sector

economic priorities within

the Caerphilly Network

v. Capacity to recruit

appropriately qualified

staff and retrain existing

staff

v. Sufficient staff to meet

the target above

4. Improve the Welsh culture

and ethos across all

providers

i. Providers’ self-evaluation

reports and CIF

outcomes for Key

Question 2, Quality

Indicator 2.1, aspect 3

i. No significant

shortcomings identified

ii. Availability of the Welsh

BAC qualification

ii. Available to all learners

at post 16

iii. Partnership approach to

the development of

Welsh culture and ethos

iii. At least one annual

partnership event by

2013

5. Increase the opportunity

to follow courses through

the medium of Welsh

i. Number of Welsh

medium places and

vocational pathways

i. 30 relevant Welsh

medium pathways both

pre and post 16,

including vocational

pathways

ii. The number of courses

delivered through the

medium of Welsh in FE

colleges

ii. A contribution by both

colleges to the targets in

the Welsh Medium

Education Strategy.


Date: 09/11/10


6. Seek efficiency and value

for money and remove

unnecessary duplication

i. The number of surplus

places in Caerphilly

English medium

secondary schools.

i. Ref 21st Century Schools

outcomes

ii. Average post-16 group

size

ii. 18 by 2013

2.7 Existing Arrangements and Business Needs

2.7.1 Population Trends and Provision of the Service

Ongoing restrictions to secondary school budgets and falling school rolls have meant that

many schools have already reduced staff numbers to the minimum. The introduction of

more vocational courses has implications for staff re-training and redeployment. The

availability of staff able to teach vocational courses through the medium of Welsh is limited

particularly in the FE sector.

Table 7: School/Pupil Projections

SCHOOL 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Capacity

Bedwas 836 849 826 814 811 800 795 804 830 825 814 1025

Blackwood 979 984 984 982 948 920 893 870 819 795 788 1002

Cwmcarn 951 954 931 898 851 829 797 766 762 774 787 949

Heolddu 760 774 774 770 756 740 736 704 680 683 680 934

Lewis Girls 1013 1020 1014 1013 1004 977 968 950 939 922 901 1194

Lewis School,

Pengam 1018 1008 980 957 924 881 852 823 804 778 770 1145

Newbridge less 21

SEN 836 835 834 836 825 808 797 797 809 798 777 1017

Oakdale 572 526 523 515 489 498 504 495 494 476 456 782

Pontllanfraith less 50

SEN 598 570 552 542 522 522 518 509 508 482 462 1010

Rhymney 939 933 909 899 857 820 774 750 739 832 744 1133

Risca less 14 SEN 484 453 434 419 386 379 379 367 364 355 351 838

St Cenydd less 24

SEN 1121 1134 1123 1098 1069 1065 1048 1039 1024 999 983 1163

St Martins 1081 1058 1024 1021 1018 1002 974 970 971 973 956 1060

Ysgol Gyfun Cwm

Rhymni 1341 1408 1458 1470 1519 1565 1680 1791 1934 2017 2134 1448

TOTAL 12529 12506 12366 12234 11979 11806 11715 11635 11677 11709 11603 14700


Date: 09/11/10

Figure 5: Secondary School Pupil Projections

2.7.2 Configuration of estates

Changes in the local demography of the last 20 years and alterations to transport

infrastructure, together with legislation regarding access mean that not all existing schools

sites are suitable for development or reorganisation. The situation in Islwyn is complicated

by the presence of a foundation school outside local authority control and the fact that the

majority of surplus places are concentrated in this area. Current plans to refurbish and

modernise both college campuses are intended to modernise and upgrade existing facilities

and would not, in themselves, add significantly to post-16 capacity.

ALL SECONDARY SCHOOLS PUPIL PROJECTIONS

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

YEAR

NUMBER O

N R

OLL

No. ON ROLL CAPACITY


Date: 09/11/10

2.7.3 Gaps in Current Position and Business Needs

The table below outlines the current position and the corresponding business needs required

to achieve the investment objectives.

Table 8: Investment objectives, current positions and business needs

Investment

Objective

Current Position Business Need

1. Maximise the local 14-16 and post 16 curricula including a wide range of vocational options at levels 2 and 3

i. Caerphilly has 14 secondary

schools of which 9 are 11-18

comprehensives with sixth

forms of varying sizes.

Considerable progress has

already been made through

collaborative working and all

post 16 learners will have

access to the appropriate

number of level 3 courses,

including vocational options,

and thus meet the Post-16

Learning and Skills (Wales)

Measure from September

2011.

i. To continue to develop the

curriculum, offering courses at

both levels 2 and 3, in general

and vocational subjects which

match the needs of students

and the local economy.

ii. The current situation is

dependent on informal

partnership working, and on

central support for student

transport and coordination.

This is currently carried out by

a designated LA team who

meet regularly with senior

managers in partnership

schools and colleges. There is

currently no direct

school/college governor

involvement in decision

making.. Howvever, agreed

protocols are in place in all

partnerships.

ii. If the current partnerships are

to continue to develop there is

a need to make governance

arrangements in each

partnership more robust,

possibly by forming “joint

committees” consisting of

governors and senior

managers from all partners

area to ensure further, more

efficient and more resilient

collaboration. One such joint

committee is already in place in

the Welsh medium partnership.

2. Deliver high quality provision and

i. Caerphilly learners’ attainment

is improving at faster than the

national rate and performance

i. To increase participation by

offering a wider range of

vocational qualifications at


Date: 09/11/10

Investment

Objective


outcomes with a particular emphasis on basic skills

at the Level 3 threshold is

currently the fourth best in

Wales. The percentage gaining

the Level 2 threshold at 16 is

improving but is still below the

national average and expected

benchmarks. Recent

curriculum change at Key

Stage 4 has yet to impact on

performance outcomes. There

have been significant changes

to the Key Stage 4 curriculum

through collaborative working

and curriculum development

which as improved the range of

courses on offer, particularly

vocational.

ii. SEF????

iii. Basic Skills Strategy???

Level 2 and 3 by expanding the

curriculum and thus providing a

curriculum that better meets

the needs of learners. This will

be achieved by using

resources more efficiently to

secure cost effective

improvements in all 14-19

learning settings.

???

???

3. Develop skills for the Welsh economy within the global market

i. There are high levels of

economic inactivity in the county

borough and the percentage of

adults with no qualifications is

among the highest in Wales.

i. To provide more support for

basic skills, skills for working

life and strategy for prevention

of NEETs.

To provide more diverse

opportunities that will fit the

needs of a wider range of

learners.

i. To track learners more

effectively and put into place

strategies that will reduce the

numbers of learners who “drop

out” of the system.

4. Strengthen the Welsh culture and ethos across all providers

i. ????? ?????

5. Increase the opportunity to

Because of the success of existing i. To improve the range of


Date: 09/11/10

Investment

Objective


follow courses through the medium of Welsh

Welsh medium collaborative

arrangements 14-19 learners are

already able to access the range of

courses required by the LSM.

i. There is still a need however to

offer a wider range of vocational

courses at levels 2 and 3

through the medium of Welsh

ii. There is a lack of trainers who

are able to deliver vocational

subjects through the medium of

Welsh.

qualifications offered through

the medium of Welsh by

training suitable personnel.

This will require closer

collaboration between the

Welsh Medium school and FE

sector

6. Seek efficiency and value for money and remove unnecessary duplication

i. The average class size for post

16 learners in schools has

been increasing steadily – In

the last LA inspection of 14-19

provision post 16 provision

within the current partnerships

was described as “good value

for money”. However there is

still unnecessary duplication of

some courses.

i. To reduce surplus places in

line with WAG requirements.

ii. To target resources more

effectively, particularly at post-

16, through improved

governance at partnership

level.


Date: 09/11/10

2.8 Potential business scope and key service requirements

This section describes the potential business scope and key service requirements for the

project in relation to the above business needs. The business scope and service

requirements identified within the two following tables provide the ranges within which

options are considered in the economic case. The proposed initiatives identified and short-

listed within this document will seek to address all of these requirements.

Table 9: Business scope and key service requirements

Service

Requirements

Business Scope and Key Service Requirements

Core

(minimum)

•••• Improved outcomes for learners at Level 2 and Key Stage 4.

•••• Better participation rates post-16 in both schools and colleges.

•••• To meet the minimum requirements of the Learning & Skills measure by

further collaboration between the schools, FE colleges, work-based

providers and the voluntary

•••• More cost effective delivery.

•••• Expanded joint governance arrangements

•••• Alignment with 21st Century Schools strategy.

Desirable

(Intermediate)

•••• A common learner tracker system.

•••• Appointment of a Keeping In Touch (KIT) Coordinator

•••• Improved ICT provision for pupils, parents and the wider community

Optional

(Maximum)

•••• To develop all existing learning settings to create education and

community facilities that reflect the needs of education and training in

the 21st Century


Date: 09/11/10

2.9 Main benefits criteria

This section describes the main outcomes and benefits associated with the implementation

of the potential scope in relation to business needs.

Satisfying the potential scope for this investment will deliver the following high-level strategic

and operational benefits. The investment objectives, and the potential benefits to different

stakeholder groups, are included in the table below.

Benefits identified are classified as:

1. Quantifiable (QB);

2. Cash releasing (CRB);

3. Not cash releasing (Non CRB);

4. Non quantifiable (Non QB).

Table 10: Investment objectives and benefit criteria

Investment Objective Stakeholder

Group

Main Benefit criteria by Stakeholder

Group

i. Maximise the local 14-16

and post 16 curricula

including a wide range of

vocational options at

levels 2 and 3.

Learners QB - Minimum of 30 subject choices for all

students, 5 of which are vocational, by Sept

2011.

QB - Improvement in recruitment and

retention.

Non QB - Better alignment with career

opportunities.

QB - Able to mix vocational and academic

pathways.

QB - Better opportunities for NEETs.

QB - Raising educational attainment.

Non QB - Improved progression

opportunities

Staff Non QB - All buildings to be category A or B

by 2012 – Improved morale.

Employers QB - Increasing numbers in FE and HE.

Non QB - Better qualified pool of

employees.


Date: 09/11/10


Group


Group

Wider

Community

Non QB - Social benefits of a better

educated population.

ii. Deliver high quality

provision and outcomes

with a particular

emphasis on basic skills

Learners QB - 97% of 17year old pupils entering a

volume equivalent to 2 A Levels achieve the

Level 3 threshold in 2011.

QB - 10% improvement by 2013 as

monitored by Careers Wales.

Staff Non QB - Improved morale due to raising

standards.

Employers Non QB - Better qualified workforce.

Wider

Community

Non QB - Economic regeneration.

iii. Develop skills for the

Welsh economy within

the global market

Learners QB - Greater efficiency savings enable

better variety of courses to be offered.

Staff CRB - Individual institutions no longer

burdened by uneconomic group sizes.

Employers QB - Improved local curriculum offer widens

local skills base.

Wider

Community

Non QB - Skills provision that can be

focused toward community need.

iv. Strengthen the Welsh

culture and ethos across

all providers

Learners

Staff

Employers

Wider

Community

v. Increase the opportunity

to follow courses through

the medium of Welsh

Learners QB – Learners who have followed a Welsh

medium education up to the age of 16 will

continue in this medium post 16.


Date: 09/11/10


Group


Group

Staff Non QB - Maintaining job security in the

Welsh medium sector.

Employers QB - Larger and better qualified pool of

Welsh speaking employees.

Wider

Community

Non QB – Welsh speaking public able to

communicate through their chosen

language in the workplace.

vi. Seek efficiency and

value for money

Learners tba

Staff Non QB - Staff more able to teach within

their specialism

Employers Non QB - Stability of potential workforce

based on school sustainability

Wider

Community

CRB - More efficient use of resources


Date: 09/11/10

2.10 Main risks

The main business and service risks associated with the potential scope for this project are

shown below, together with their counter measures.

Main risks

LEA inspection – asset mgt strategy

Partnership arrangement…

Political change – continuing dialog with politicians (counter measure)

Funding availability…

Table 11: Risks and counter measures

Main Risk Counter Measures

Business and Political Risks

1. Execution of strategic developments

planned to bring about the

Transformation requires amounts

greater than available WAG funding

Continued liaison with WAG to

understand the potential funding

envelope available.

2. Increased participation and broadening

of curriculum requires greater revenue

funding for post-16 in both school and

colleges.

Understand WAG funding intentions

and work within these potential

budgets.

3. The best possible transformation and

governance arrangement for each

partnership area is inhibited by political

issues.

To put more effort into political

persuasion between providers and

encourage providers to accept

compromise solutions.

4. Participation, NEETS and other

performance and investment objectives

are not achieved post implementation.

Formulate and implement a strong

benefits realisation plan with associated

investment objectives.

Service Risks

5. More choices including vocational

options may result in class sizes too

small to be financially viable.

Ensure weak areas (courses that may

not be financially viable) are eliminated

with effective curriculum planning.

6. Planning/provision of vocational

courses does not reflect demand for or

needs for vocational training.

Ensuring vocational courses offered are

discussed with potential employers and

closely aligned to market needs.


Date: 09/11/10

Main Risk Counter Measures

7. Capital costs exceeded Competitive procurement and strong

cost control of subsequent capital

works must be established; set up form

of contract that puts onus upon

contractor.

8. National cut backs mean that

anticipated revenue funding streams

are not sustainable.

Must anticipate future funding levels

and budget accordingly.

9. Target implementation timescale are

too ambitious.

Regular monitoring and reviewing of

project plans must be set up by the

management team.

10. There may be insufficient teaching staff

with the right vocational skills to deliver

the planned curriculum; There may be

some amount of competition between

councils to recruit staff

Plan resource and training needs

assessment well in advance and

provide incentives for staff to select

Caerphilly as their preferred employer.

External Environmental Risks

11. Projections of numbers of learners and

reductions in surplus places have been

overstated because of the recession.

Continuously review pupil projections

and build flexibility to education

provision to tailor changing numbers.

12. Delay in WAG approval of SOC delays

delivery of transformation proposal

Liaison with WAG to progress SOC in

accordance with timetable.

13. A change in political climate at County

level

Mutual understanding at the local level

of political imperatives that impact upon

Transformation strategy

14. A change in political climate within

WAG

Contact with DCELLS representatives

to understand the implications of policy

shifts.

15. Local communities do not accept or

object to the planned strategy.

Ensure local politicians and

educationalists are supportive. Clear

communication in an understandable

form setting out the benefits of change.


Date: 09/11/10

2.11 Constraints

The project is subject to the following constraints:

• WAG policy;

• County Council policy;

• Common agreement across Board of the Partnership in Caerphilly;

• Consultation process in new build/location of extra Welsh medium provision;

• Insufficient provision of teaching staff to support the provision of Welsh medium

education;

• Future legislation.

2.12 Dependencies

The project is subject to dependencies that will be managed carefully throughout the lifespan

of the scheme. These external factors need to be actively managed to ensure that any

issues can be identified early and resolved or mitigated to reduce the potential affect on the

overall success of the project.

The project dependencies are as follows:

• Availability of funding to conduct feasibility work to:

– Plan and implement vocational courses;

– Plan and implement the provision of higher education in Welsh medium;

• Completion of acceptable feasibility work that can move the project forward;

• Availability of capital funding;

• Transport infrastructure to support increased participation of 16+ - vocational courses .

• Business case approvals;

• Consultation outcomes;

• Ministerial approval of Authority proposals by WAG;

• Changes to educational and curricular policies;

• Changes to funding arrangements.


Date: 09/11/10

3.0 The Economic Case

3.1 Introduction

In accordance with the Capital Investment Manual and requirements of HM Treasury’s

Green Book (A Guide to Investment Appraisal in the Public Sector), this section of the SOC

documents the wide range of options that have been considered in response to the potential

scope identified within the strategic case.

3.2 Critical Success Factors

The key Critical Success Factors (CSF)s for the project are listed below:

• CSF1: Business Needs

– The option must satisfy all of the 6 investment objectives and associated business

needs determined for the initiative.

– The option must also optimise compliance with these objectives throughout any

phased implementation.

– The option must be the best fit with the demands for skills of the business and

commercial communities within the area.

• CSF2: Strategic Fit

– The option must fit within and promote National and Regional strategies presented in

Business Strategies.

– The option must complement the transformation plans that Caerphilly County Council

have developed.

– The option must be the best fit with the strategies of the business and commercial

communities within the area.

– The option must fit with the Community Strategies for the area.

• CSF3: Benefits Optimisation

– Achieves an integrated service provision around pupils, families, parents/ carers, and

schools/learning settings.

– Sustainable model(s) of learning provision that meet the needs and aspirations of all

children and young people.

– Educational attainment levels raised to the targets expressed for investment

objectives.

– Operating costs for delivering learning are optimised at levels that achieve reductions.


Date: 09/11/10

• CSF4: Potential Achievability

– The option needs to be accepted by learners, staff, employees and the wider

community.

– There must be the management capacity, skills and vision to deliver the

transformation, or must be aware of the need to recruit assistance.

– Innovative governance and management arrangements need to be deployed.

– Effective and efficient collaborative working for the longer term.

– Transferable ‘models’ and ‘processes’ for dissemination – for both service delivery

and Tri-Level reform.

• CSF5: Supply Side Capacity and Capability

– The new cluster configuration attracts staff of the highest quality to deliver courses to

learners.

• CSF6: Potential Affordability

– The required capital investment can be met from combining grants available from the

Welsh Assembly Government, contributions from the Learning Partnership and

realisations from land and property sales.

– Developments can be phased to match the funds available.

– The financial and non financial benefits must more than repay the investment.

These CSFs have been used alongside the investment objectives for the project to evaluate

the long list of possible options.

3.3 Scoping options

3.3.1 Introduction

The long list of options for this investment was been generated by the Learning Partnership

based upon sensible logistical, geographic and local acceptability criteria. This generated the

following options which are described along with their advantages and disadvantages.

Financial consequences are attributed where known but are only estimates at this stage and

exclude optimism bias within this section.

3.3.2 Option 1: ‘Do Minimum’ - Maintain existing collaboration between schools and


This option continues current “loose alliances” in the form of four existing partnerships (3

English medium, 1 Welsh medium). Two of the English medium partnerships involve 11-18

schools and the College, Ystrad Mynach, the third English medium partnership is a long

established tertiary system between 11-16 schools and Coleg Gwent Crosskeys, and the

Welsh medium partnership is a cross-border collaboration between two 11-18 schools. At


Date: 09/11/10

present the Welsh medium partnership has a formally constituted joint committee of

governance, and the English medium partnerships have regular management meetings and

agreed protocols. Existing collaborative arrangements in Caerphilly have been cited as an

example of good practice in school/college partnership through joint timetabling.

Advantages Existing collaborative arrangements in Caerphilly have been cited as an

example of good practice in school/college partnership.

•••• The range of subjects offered to all Caerphilly post-16 students (apart one sixth form) is

already well above the proposed Post-16 Learning and Skills threshold.

Disadvantages

•••• The lack of any firm governance arrangements other than agreements at headteacher

level.

•••• This is more of an operational arrangement than a strategic one.

•••• This is not sufficiently transformative

Financial Attributes

There will be revenue costs associated with managing the four current area partnerships and

transport arrangements. No capital spend required

3.3.3 Option 2: ‘Intermediate’ - Establish “harder” federated arrangements based on


This would involve the setting up of a strategic management group for each partnership

including governor representatives from each of the partner institutions. These groups

would make strategic decisions relating to the future developments of the partnerships

including curriculum change, finance, transport, and could manage post 16 delegated

funding.

Advantages

•••• The partnerships become more resilient.

•••• More strategic governance would allow difficult issues such as curriculum rationalisation

to be addressed.

•••• This option does not preclude an eventual move towards a fuller tertiary system

Disadvantages

•••• Governing bodies may perceive this as a threat to autonomy.

•••• Partnerships would be faced with more administrative responsibilities.

•••• The potential to create tensions between partnerships


No Capital spend required


Date: 09/11/10

(Important note: Earlier drafts of the SOC contained an extra option as Option 3,

which included proposals for Welsh Medium reorganisation to meet the forecast

demand for additional Welsh Medium places. As these proposals were rejected by

WAG following a Tranche 3 bid, this option is now discounted, and has been

incorporated into the 21st Century School strategy currently under consultation.)

3.3.4 Option 3: ‘Intermediate’ - Full tertiary system in Islwyn. One sixth form centre in


The tertiary system in Islwyn would be further developed. One sixth form centre would be

established in the Rhymney Valley/Caerphilly Basin (managed by joint governance –see

above). This would require either the re-designation of an existing school in the middle of

the valley or a new build in the same area, possibly on the college site.

Sixth form students are retained on their original school roll but the delivery of all general

subjects at level three would take place at the sixth form centre and all vocational subjects at

the College, Ystrad Mynach. Delivery would be by school and college staff.

Advantages

•••• student travel during the day would be greatly reduced.

•••• Improved choice and further reduction in duplication

•••• Some redundancies would be avoided

•••• Disadvantages

•••• Local opposition if site was current school.

•••• Net increase in travel for the majority of learners may be a barrier to access

•••• Potential issues relating to duty of care


This option would require some capital spending.

3.3.5 Option 4: ‘Maximum Scope’ - Full tertiary across CCBC. Close all 6th forms.

Increase FE capacity with new build. Further school closures



Gwent Crosskeys and an extended FE college at Ystrad Mynach.

Advantages

•••• A consistent system of post 16 education across Caerphilly.


Date: 09/11/10

•••• In line with WAG policy for the HOV area

•••• Economies of scale

•••• Disadvantages

•••• Possible staff redundancies or re-deployment

•••• Increase in school surplus places inevitably leading to more school closures.

•••• Local opposition to loss of sixth forms


This option would require capital spending


Date: 09/11/10

3.4 Scoping options

3.4.1 Introduction

The options were scored in a series of focus group workshops held with school and college

representatives from the network where the investment objectives and critical success

factors were proposed and agreed.. Members of the focus group scored the four options

independently, and the results were collated. In accordance with the Treasury Green Book

the ‘do minimum’ option was considered as a benchmark for potential VFM.

3.4.2 Option Assessment

The table below summarises the assessment of each option scoped against the investment

objectives and CSFs.

Table 12: Assessment of scoping options


Date: 09/11/10

3.4.3 Overall conclusion

Option 1: ‘Do Minimum’ - Maintain existing collaboration between schools and


The chief advantage of this option is that it has already been shown to work in practice.

Collaborative arrangements that are already in place, together with agreed further joint

timetabling from September 2011 mean that all Caerphilly learning settings will be well

above the minimum requirements of the new Learning and Skills Measure. The lack of any

formal joint governance arrangements (other than in the Welsh Medium Partnership) might

jeopardise future sustainability, however, and inhibit the longer term strategic direction.

Discounted

Option 2: ‘Intermediate’ - Establish “harder” federated arrangements based on


This would achieve most, or possibly all, of the Transformation objectives in a ‘tried and

tested’ format. By itself, it would not fully align with some of the 21st Century Schools aims

and objectives. It could well represent an interim stage in the development of some form of

future tertiary system in which learning settings combine and integrate in new and

imaginative ways..

Possible, but only as an interim solution

(Important note: Earlier drafts of the SOC contained an extra option as Option 3,

which included proposals for Welsh Medium reorganisation to meet the forecast

demand for additional Welsh Medium places. As these proposals were rejected by

WAG following a Tranche 3 bid, this option is now discounted, and has been

incorporated into the 21st Century School strategy currently under consultation.)

Option 3: ‘Intermediate’ - Full tertiary system in Islwyn. One sixth form centre in


This offers a development of the current system which would require a new kind of

partnership working between learning settings, which would jointly own and manage any

new facilities. It has the advantage of potential achievability in the local context, provided

that it is based firmly on the progress in collaborative working that has already taken place.

This option could align closely with 21st Century Schools proposals.

Preferred, but likely to involve a longer timecale because of potentially contentious

implications

Option 4: ‘Maximum’ - Full tertiary across CCBC. Close all 6th forms. Increase FE

capacity with new build. Further school closures




Date: 09/11/10

Gwent Crosskeys and an extended FE college at Ystrad Mynach. This is also potentially

contentious, and likely to be the most expensive option.

Alternative preference

Following discussion and scoring of options on 15 September, the SOC focus group

proposed that the ‘preferred’ option should be either option 3 or option 4, and that

option 2 (‘federation’) should be implemented from September 2011 as a necessary

interim stage. Full implementation of the final preferred option by September 2014.

3.5 Service solution options

(to be completed)

Table 12: Summary assessment of service solutions options

Reference to: Option 3 Option 4

Description of option:

Investment objectives

i.

ii.

iii.

iv.

v.

vi.

Critical Success Factors

Business need

Strategic fit

Benefits optimisation

Potential achievability

Supply-side capacity and capability

Potential affordability

Summary


Date: 09/11/10

3.6 Service delivery options

3.6.1 Introduction

This range of options considers the options for service delivery in relation to the preferred

scope and potential solution. In reality Outsourcing and Strategic Partnerships were not seen

as viable alternatives and have been discounted in favour of in-house delivery. The in-house

choice includes members of the Caerphilly Learning Partnership led by the County Council.

3.6.2 Overall conclusion: service delivery options

The table below summarises the assessment of the in-house option against the investment

objectives and CSFs.

Table 13: Summary assessment of service delivery options

Reference to: Option

Description of options: In-house


i. Maximise the local 14-16 and post 16 curricula including a wide range of vocational options at levels 2 and 3.

ii. Deliver high quality provision and

outcomes with a particular emphasis

on basic skills

iii. Develop skills for the Welsh economy

within the global market

iv. Strengthen the Welsh culture and ethos across all providers

v. Increase the opportunity to follow courses through the medium of Welsh

vi. Seek efficiency and value for money and remove unnecessary duplication

Critical success factors

Business need

Strategic fit



Date: 09/11/10


Description of options: In-house




Summary Only Choice

3.7 Implementation options

3.7.1 Introduction

This range of options considers the choices for implementation in relation to the preferred

scope, solution and method of service delivery.

‘Big Bang’ has been discounted as not being a practicable solution therefore a Phased

approach will be the one adopted.

3.7.2 Overall conclusion: implementation options

The table below summarises the assessment of the phased option against the investment

objectives and critical success factors.

Table 14: Summary assessment of implementation options


Description of options: phased


i. Maximise the local 14-16 and post 16 curricula including a wide range of vocational options at levels 2 and 3.

ii. Deliver high quality provision and

outcomes with a particular emphasis on

basic skills

iii. Develop skills for the Welsh economy within the global market

iv. Strengthen the Welsh culture and ethos across all providers

v. Increase the opportunity to follow courses through the medium of Welsh


Date: 09/11/10


Description of options: phased

vi. Seek efficiency and value for money and remove unnecessary duplication

Critical success factors

Business need

Strategic fit





Summary Only Choice

3.8 Funding options

3.8.1 Introduction

It is anticipated that the preferred option will be funded solely from public sources.

Anticipated capital expenditure will come from WAG grants which will encompass 21st

century school funds and transformation funding.

Additional or continuing running costs requirements will be met from the Caerphilly CBC

schools budget. (Medium term financial plan under review because of public sector cuts)

3.9 The long list: inclusions and exclusions

Table 15: Summary of inclusions, exclusions and possible options

Options Finding

1.0 Scope

1 ‘Do Minimum’ Discounted as the option does not satisfy many of

the Investment Objectives or CSF criteria.

2 Federation Possible as an interim stage in the development

of a tertiary system; could meet most of the

Investment Objectives or CSF criteria.

3 URV 6th Form Centre / Tertiary in Preferred because the option meets all the


Date: 09/11/10

Islwyn selection criteria and embodies a range of viable

service delivery approaches

4 Full Tertiary System Preferred because the option also meets all the

selection criteria and embodies a range of viable

service delivery approaches

2.0 Service solutions

2.1 Redevelopment of existing school

buildings

2.2 New build

3.0 Service delivery

3.1 In-house Preferred for new builds; this is the only option to enable

construction four community learning centres.

Preferred for setting up joint governance.

3.2 Outsource Discounted

3.3 Strategic partnership Preferred - for ICT implementation as permits

collaboration across councils and there widens

boundaries of provision.

4.0 Implementation

4.2 Big bang Preferred for setting up joint governance.

Preferred for ICT implementation.

4.3 Phased Only choice for new builds. Refer to OBC for 21st

Century schools

5.0 Funding

5.1 Private Funding Discounted

5.2 Public Funding Only choice


Date: 09/11/10

4.0 The Commercial Case

4.1 Introduction

This section of the SOC outlines the proposed deal in relation to the preferred option

outlined in the economic case.

4.2 Required services

The exact service requirements are still to be fully defined but the ‘way ahead’ is outlined

below.

i. Joint governance will be in place by September 2011 and will be the way forward from that date. Joint governance is seen as an evolving process and will change according to the requirements of the Learning Partnership and Welsh Assembly Government.

ii. Please refer to the ICT Learning Strategy document. This will be submitted to WAG in December 2010.

iii. Please refer to the SOP for 21st Century Schools. Document (to be submitted to WAG in December 2010)

4.3 Potential for risk transfer

As there will be no procurement progressed through this SOC the only risks associated

would be the formation of Joint Governance.

4.4 Procurement strategy and implementation timescales

Caerphilly County Borough Council is a public sector body and as such governed by EU

Procurement Directives and the Council’s own Standing Orders. The procedure followed will

depend on the value of contract - levels and process are:

•••• Purchases of Goods and Services <£10K

Individual officers to obtain value for money and to be able to substantiate this process

by keeping appropriate records

•••• Purchases between £10,001 and £50,000

3 formal written quotations or 4 formal tenders

•••• Purchases between £50,001 and £156,442

Minimum of 5 formal tenders

•••• Purchases over £156,442

Formal tendering in line with EU directives (new consolidated directives).


Date: 09/11/10

In addition, elements of the project can be procured through the authority’s (Caerphilly)

Framework agreements.

The management team have indicative timescales in mind for the procurement of capacity to

deliver the outcomes however these are to be developed in further detail at OBC stage.

It is possible that the eventually chosen option will drive the disposal of currently held assets.

In this circumstance the disposal will be managed and controlled as per the procedure within

the Council’s Standing Orders.

4.5 FRS 5 accountancy treatment

It is anticipated that any additional school related assets would form part of the balance

sheet of Caerphilly CBC. Any additions to the two colleges would form part of their own

asset portfolio.


Date: 09/11/10

5.0 The Financial Case

5.1 Introduction

It is anticipated that the capital funding for the project, for both new buildings and

refurbishments will be provided by WAG through the Transformation and 21st Century

Schools funds. Discussions have yet to be held with WAG DCELLS to determine the

potential funding mix and timing.

In addition to the funding required for capital expenditure, funding will also be needed to

manage the consequences and management of change and the ongoing management of

the collaboration network. Operational running costs of new premises will be met from the

schools budget.

Please refer to the SOP for 21st Century Schools. Document will be submitted to WAG in

December 2010.

Please refer to the ICT Learning Strategy document produced by Caerphilly Borough

Council.

5.2 Impact on the organisation’s income and expenditure account

The anticipated payment stream for the project over its intended life span is not possible to

predict in a meaningful way with the financial data in its approximate state. This will be

properly developed at the next stage of the project.

5.3 Impact on the balance sheet

Capitalised refurbishment costs and newly built school premises will form part of the assets

of Caerphilly CBC. If required additions to either FE college would form part of the assets of

the respective institution.

5.4 Overall affordability

It is anticipated that the capital funding for the project, for both new buildings and

refurbishments will be provided by WAG through the Transformation and 21st Century

Schools funds. Discussions have yet to be held with WAG DCELLS to determine the

potential funding mix and timing. In addition to the funding required for capital expenditure,

funding will also be needed to manage the consequences and management of change and

the ongoing management of the collaboration network.


Date: 09/11/10

Operational running costs of new premises will be met from the Caerphilly CBC schools

budget.

The table below sets out some of the financial assumptions which have been made about

the options considered.

Table17: Assumptions on capital and revenue costs

(all values are rough estimates which require refinement at OBC stage)

Option Assumptions

1 Loose Alliance –

Do minimum

Cost base stays as current.

2 Federation Four current Area Partnerships currently funded by £400k from WAG

and CCBC. Intended to add strategic governance group for each

partnership. Current funding ceases 2010/11. New annual funding

stream required.

3 Single sixth form

centre in

Rhymney/Caerphilly

Basin – Full Tertiary

in Islwyn

Current two partnership arrangements mean that the seven schools

involved retain their 6th forms and Learners move between schools

and the College at Ystrad Mynach. In this proposal individual 6th

forms would be closed and an existing school shut and re-designated

as a mixed 6th Form Centre. Staff would remain on the payroll of their

existing schools and travel to the 6th form, the college would retain its

current role. Staff move rather than learners.

Possible minor reductions in running costs of other schools. Capital

of £1–2m required for refurbishment and equipment. Additional staff

travel costs will be incurred but this option saves surplus places.

An alternative may be a new build 6th Form Centre on the college

site.


Date: 09/11/10

4 Full Tertiary -

Maximum

The move to a full tertiary system will mean closing all 6th forms with

consequent costs of staff redeployment. Without 6th forms it will be

necessary to rationalise 11-16 provision which may see the closure

and disposal of 3 or 4 school sites.

6th form learners would have to be accommodated at expanded FE

colleges. Potentially a 1,000 extra at Ystrad Mynach and 200 extra at

Coleg Gwent. Both colleges would require additional new build

capacity to accommodate these students.


Date: 09/11/10

6.0 The Management Case

6.1 Introduction

This section of the SOC addresses the ‘achievability’ of the scheme. Its purpose is to set out

the actions that will be required to ensure the successful delivery of the scheme in

accordance with best practice.

6.2 Programme management arrangements

The scheme is an integral part of the Caerphilly 14-19 Learning Partnership programme. The

diagram below shows the structure of the partnership and how decisions are made.

In the context of the Transition Programme this group is a strategy setting, co-ordinating and

advisory body. For structures and terms of reference for the future please see Appendix C.


Date: 09/11/10

6.3 Project management arrangements

Tba

Table 18: Milestones

Milestone activity Date / Month / Year

i.

ii.

iii.

iv.

v.

vi.

vii.

viii.

ix.

x.

xi.

xii.

xiii.


Date: 09/11/10

Annex A – Current Members of the Caerphilly LAN/Learning Partnership

1. David Eynon Head of 14-19 Development (Chair)

2. Cllr Phil Bevan Cabinet Member for Education and Leisure

3. Dr Chris Howard Upper Rhymney Valley Partnership

4. Chris David Islwyn Partnership

5. Owain ap Dafydd Welsh Medium Partnership

6. David Finch The College, Ystrad Mynach

7. Martin Jones The College, Ystrad Mynach

8. Bill Mason Crosskeys Campus, Coleg Gwent

9. Dot Powell Quality Champion

10. Guy Brewer Gwent Visual Impairment Service

11. Howard Jones Trinity Fields Special School

12. Arlene Pryce UWIC

13. Melanie Aitchison University of Glamorgan

14. Tom Croke University of Wales, Newport

15. Phil Bowden Careers Wales Gwent

16. Mark Owen Careers Wales Mid Glamorgan

17. Steve Mason Adult Education

18. Alex Hicks WBL representative(Educ8)

19. Dave Brunton Voluntary Sector


Date: 09/11/10

ANNEX B - Approximate distances and travel times between institutions

(to be inserted from relevant prospectus)


Date: 09/11/10

ANNEX C

THE CAERPHILLY* LEARNING PARTNERSHIP FEDERATION

TERMS OF REFERENCE

(currently under separate consultation in each partnership group)

* Replace with Upper Rhymney Valley/Caerphilly Basin/Islwyn as appropriate

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