transition from armed struggle to nonviolent resistance
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Dynamics and Factors of Transition from Armed Struggle
to Nonviolent Resistance
Dr Véronique Dudouet,
Book presentation
Washington, 10.02.2015
Outline of this presentation
Rationale and methodology
Actor-based approach:
resistance/liberation
movements
Action-based approach:
repertoire of contention
Conflict ‘demilitarisation’
patterns
Drivers of change
page 2
Conflict transformation stages
01 Rationale and methodology page 3
1. INTRODUCTION - Véronique Dudouet2. Western Sahara: Nonviolence as a Last Resort - Jacob Mundy and Stephen
Zunes3. From the Mountains and Jungles to the Villages an d Streets: Transitions from
Violent to Nonviolent Resistance in West Papua - Jason McLeod4. Evolution of Armed to Unarmed Resistance in Pales tine - Mazin Qumsiyeh5. South Africa: The Townships Rise Up - Stephen Zunes6. From Armed Struggle to Interaction with Civil Soc iety: Chiapas’ Zapatista
National Liberation Army - Guiomar Rovira Sancho7. Two Sides of the Same Coin: Indigenous Armed Stru ggle and Indigenous
Nonviolent Resistance in Colombia - José Armando Cárdenas Sarrias and Katrin Planta
8. Egypt’s Revolution and the Transformation of Arme d Islamist Movements towards Unarmed Activism - Omar Ashour
9. Nepal’s Maoists: From Violent Revolution to Nonvi olent Political Activism -Manish Thapa
10. CONCLUSION - Véronique Dudouet
Edited book: Table of Contents
01 Rationale and methodology page 4
Actor-oriented approach : Resistance/Liberation movements
Three main types of movements:
National liberation movements striving for freedom through self-
determination (Western Sahara, West Papua, Palestine + South Africa)
� Organisational, geographic and strategic divisions
Movements representing an oppressed/marginalised ethnic community
advancing agendas for cultural, economic, or political rights – but with no
claims to seize central state power (Chiapas/Mexico and Cauca/Colombia)
� Three concentric organisational circles, self-defense army at the service of a social
movement
Ideological/revolutionary armed movements (Nepal and Egypt)
� Emerged from a pre-existing political party and developed cohesive underground
structures over the course of armed insurgency
02 Actor-oriented approach page 5
Action -oriented approach: Armed vs. nonviolent resistance
Conventional action Non-institutional/Contentious action
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unarmed resistance Armed resistance
• Party politics
• Advocacy or diplomacy
• Dialogue and negotiation
• Litigation
• Protest and persuasion
• Non-cooperation (civil
disobedience)
• Disruptive intervention
• Creative resistance
• Sabotage
• Protest violence
• Guerrilla insurgency
• Terrorist attacks
• Conventional warfare
03 Action-oriented approach page 6
Conflict demilitarisation trajectories
Types of transition from armed to unarmed resistance Cases
A. Collective shift to (primarily) nonviolent struggle
while retaining use of violence or access to weapons,
followed/accompanied by negotiations with the state
• African National Congress, South Africa (1980s)
• Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN), Chiapas
(Mexico) (1994)
• Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) (2006)
B. Unequivocal demobilisation in a context of
dialogue/peace process, shift to institutional action,
followed by a (re)turn to nonviolent resistance by
some members
• Armed Movement Quintín Lame (MAQL), Colombia
(1990 onwards)
• Gama’a Islamiya, Egypt (1997 onwards)
C. Progressive escalation of civil resistance and de-
escalation of armed struggle within a broader
liberation movement, but with a geographical and
generational gap, and no clear-cut leadership
endorsement
• Polisario, Western Sahara
• West Papua National Liberation Army (TPN-PB)
• Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO)
04 Transition patterns page 7
1912 1950 1961 1970 1980 1990 1994
1912: African
National
Congress
established
1990-1993:
Negotiations
and peace
accords
1994: ANC
electoral
victory
1950s: Defiance
Campaign
1970s: Black
Consciousness
Movement
1983: United
Democratic Front
(UDF)
established
1961: Launch of
armed struggle
by ANC (MK)
1980s: ANC armed
activity in moral
support of nonviolent
resistance
South Africa: Anti-apartheid movement
05 Transition patterns page 8
From 1994 onwards: Nonviolent mobilisation
in Chiapas, greater Mexico, and abroad
1994:
Dialogue
with the
state
1980s: Zapatista movement
organizes for armed action
1994: 12-day guerrilla
insurgency, mutual
ceasefire declared
Kept unused weapons as security
guarantee
1980 1994
Chiapas (Mexico): Zapatista movement
04 Transition patterns page 9
Parliamentary
politics
'Hardliners'
remobilise for
nonviolent
struggle
1990:
Nonviolent
revolution
1996-2006: Maoists wage 'people's war'
2006:
Participation
in nonviolent
revolution
1990 1996 2006 2012
2006: Maoists
negotiate peace
accord with the
government
Electoral politics and state
governance; disarmament
and demobilization of
former combatants
Nepal: Maoist movement
04 Transition patterns page10
1977-1990: MAQL wage a
guerrilla insurgency
1971: CRIC
established
Formal and collective DDR, party
politics, and legal channels
Remobilization of some
former combatants for
nonviolent resistance
1991: MAQL
negotiates a peace
accord with the
government
1971 1980 1990
Cauca/Colombia: Indigenous movement
04 Transition patterns page 11
1988-1993:
Mediation
attempts
2002: Armed
wings
dismantled
From late-1970s
onward: GI engages in
violent Islamist
militancy (jihadism)
1997: GI declares
unilateral ceasefire
Egypt: Islamist group (GI)
2013:
Mix of party
politics and
nonviolent
resistance2011: Some
members participate
in nonviolent
revolution
From 1997 onwards: Dialogue
with the state and DDR
1980 1997 2002 2011 2013
04 Transition patterns page12
West Papua (Indonesia): Liberation movement
1999-2000: Mass based
campaigns
2010-2011: Mass based
campaigns
1965 1998 2000 2010
National and international lobbying for West Papua1969: "Act of Free
Choice"
From 1965 onwards: West
Papuan National Liberation
Army (TPN-PB) operates in a
network of decentralised
guerrilla groups
President
Suharto is
overthrown
Many groups demobilise (but do not become
active in nonviolent resistance),
while some TPN-PB groups remain
active
04 Transition patterns page 13
Western Sahara: Liberation movement
1975-1991: UN/OAU diplomatic
efforts to resolve the Morocco-
Polisario dispute
1991: Ceasefire
takes hold and
MINURSO
formed
Since 1991 Polisario maintains a
standing army
1975-1991: Polisario wage war of
independence
1975-2005: Intermittent nonviolent resistance
(significant campaigns in 1987, 1995, and 1999)
2000-present: Successive UN
mediation attempts
1973: Polisario
founded against
Spanish
occupiers
1973 1980 1991 2000 2005 2010
2010: Largest
mass
demonstrations
and most
violent under
Moroccan
occupation
2005: Protests
galvanize a new
generation of
activists (Sahrawi
intifada)
04 Transition patterns page 14
Palestine: Liberation movement
1965 1974 1987 1993 2000 2009
1965-1980s: Violent actions waged
on the international stage by various
armed factions
2009: Fatah leaders
pledge support for
nonviolent
resistance
From 1990s onwards:
Violent campaigns
launched by Islamist
groups
1974: PLO
diplomatic
engagement
Armed struggle by Islamists
continues intermittently
From 1993 onwards: Negotiations and state-
building by the Palestinian Authority
1987-1991:
First
intifada
2000:
Second
intifada
1993: Oslo
agreement
From 2000
onwards:
Decentralized
nonviolent
resistance
04 Transition patterns page 15
Drivers of transition from armed to nonviolent resi stanceLevels of analysis Mechanisms of change
Intra-group
• Shifts in the identity, belief systems and strategic choices of the leadership
• Horizontal dynamics and power shifts
• Vertical dynamics across the hierarchy (top-down/bottom-up)
Group-society
• Pressure from (existing) allies within a broader movement
• Coalition-building with other socio-political forces
• Mirroring a strategy that has been proved effective by other groups
• ‘Reversed outbidding’ to emphasise one’s distinction with competitors
Group-state
• Persistence or increase in power asymmetry in favour of the state
• Level and nature of state repression to dissent
• Selective state inducement and political opportunities
Group-
international
• Loss of foreign support and search for new allies
• Emulation of successful regional/international models
• Cross-border transmission of techniques and skills
05 Factors of transition
1. Intra-group factors
Shifts in the identity, belief systems and strategi c choices of the leadership:
Some leaders underwent behavioural shifts caused by a reassessment of the means (e.g.
Egypt, Palestine) and/or goals (e.g. Chiapas, Nepal) of the movement.
Some movements started using nonviolent resistance more intensively after the
emergence of a new generation of leaders (e.g. Western Sahara, West Papua)
Horizontal and vertical communication and power dyn amics:
Some shifts to civil resistance were induced by internal power dynamics between
‘moderate’ and ‘hardliner’ leaders/branches of the movement (e.g. Nepal, Colombia)
Rank-and-file militants were able to take up active leadership roles in civil resistance
thanks to top-down political education and ‘socialisation’ (e.g. Colombia, Egypt)
page 1705 Factors of transition
2. Group -society factors
Pressure and incentives from existing or potential allies:
Some armed groups become sensitive to ‘war fatigue’ within their community
(Colombia, West Papua)
Others become socialised to join broader civil society campaigns (Chiapas, Nepal) –
including in alliance with their opponents’ constituency (South Africa, Palestine, West
Sahara).
Relations with other socio-political actors operati ng in the same social environment:
Armed groups might turn to civil resistance to mirror a strategy used effectively by
others (Palestine, Colombia, Egypt)
Or they might adopt unarmed means to distance themselves from their political
competitors (Colombia, Palestine)
page 1805 Factors of transition
3. Group -state factors
Persistent power asymmetry and counter-effectivenes s of guerrilla warfare:
Some armed groups realised that the correlation of forces with the state forced them to
adopt nonviolent struggle as an alternative methods of asymmetric conflict, and as ‘a
tool of necessity, not of choice’ (Western Sahara, South Africa).
Others first attempted to negotiate a peace deal and adopt conventional politics, before
turning to civil resistance as a more effective method to effect change (Palestine,
Colombia, Egypt).
Impact of state repression to dissent or political opportunity structure:
The impact of repressive state policies on their members and communities forced some
movements to reconsider the (ethical) benefits of armed vs. nonviolent methods of
struggle (West Papua, Egypt).
Some movements seized political openings (e.g. ceasefire, democratisation) to reinforce
their capacity for nonviolent mobilisation (Western Sahara, West Papua)
page 1905 Factors of transition
4. International factors
Loss of support base for armed insurgency or search for new allies:
Global events such as the end of the Cold War or the post-9/11 War on Terror
convinced some opposition groups to adopt conflict strategies more likely to attract
international sympathy and support (South Africa, Palestine).
Some movements framed their struggle in line with existing transnational social
movements in order to gain support from global activism and networks (Chiapas).
Emulation of successful international models and cr oss-border transmission of knowledge and skills:
Some activists looked to other movements regionally or internationally for inspiration
(West Papua and Chiapas vs. Colombia and Western Sahara).
A few movements expanded their ‘toolbox’ of tactics by being trained and exposed to
technical and empirical expertise on nonviolent action from abroad (West Papua,
Palestine)
page 2005 Factors of transition
Comparison of main factors across the eight cases
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Role of the leadership X X X X X X X
Intra-group horizontal dynamics X X X X
Intra-group vertical dynamics X X
Pressure from social allies X X X X X
(Societal) coalition-building X X X X X
(Societal) reversed outbidding X X
Societal mirroring X X X
Group-state power asymmetry X X X X X X
State repression to dissent X X
Selective state inducement and political opportunities X X X X X
Loss/lack of foreign support and search for new allies X X X X X X X
Emulation of successful international models X X
Cross-border transmission of skills and knowledge X X X
page 2105 Factors of transition
Thank you for your attention!
For more information:http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9781138019423/http://youtu.be/4mERjp83pMI (recorded live webinar)
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