transportation & logistics - harris williams...logistics providers rail & rail services...
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
0
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
PAGE |
www.harriswilliams.com
WHAT WE’RE READING
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jeff BurkettDirector [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jershon JonesDirector [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
James O’MalleyVice President [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0165
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
TRUCKING | FREIGHT TONNAGE SETS RECORD
Truck tonnage jumped 8.6% in February, posting an all-time record that washelped by freight that moved later due to January storms, American TruckingAssociations reported. “The strength was mainly due to a weaker-than-averageJanuary, including bad winter storms, thus there was some catch-up going on inFebruary,” said Economist Bob Costello, who consistently cautions that singlemonth tonnage readings need to be placed in context. “This was more a statisticalblip than anything else. If March is strong, I’ll stand corrected and that would begood news, for sure.”
Transport Topics
MARINE | PORT OF LONG BEACH REPORTS RECORD FEBRUARY IMPORTS
Some of the world’s biggest ocean shipping alliances could be much bigger bymonth’s end, as top container operators vie for regulatory approvals of new tie-ups, industry executives said Tuesday. The changes come as Chinese majors ChinaOcean Shipping Co., or Cosco, and China Shipping Group Co. are trying to gettheir recently completed merger approved by European Union and U.S.regulators. The Chinese watchdog already has given a thumbs-up to the merger.France’s CMA CGM SA also is seeking regulatory approvals by all three regulatorsfor its $2.4 billion acquisition of Singapore’s Neptune Orient Lines Ltd., announcedin December.
Wall Street Journal
AIR | AIR FREIGHT SLUMPS IN FEBRUARY AS MARKET FACES HEADWINDS
Global air cargo traffic shrank 5.6 percent in February, but the steepest monthlydecline in three years was heavily skewed by the impact of disruption at U.S. WestCoast ports in early 2015 that triggered a one-off spike in demand for air freight,the International Air Transportation Association said. Traffic was also depressed bythe Chinese Lunar New Year vacation falling in February this year, the industrybody said. Comparing the first two months of 2016 with a year ago removes thesedistortions and shows a relatively strong growth rate, according to IATA.
Journal of Commerce
RAIL | FREIGHT TRAFFIC CONTINUES ON DOWNWARD SLOPE
Freight traffic in the month of April, at least so far, isn’t showing signs ofimprovement. For the week ending April 9, 2016, carloads and intermodal unitswere down 20% and nearly 8%, respectively, the Association of American Railroads(AAR) reported on April 13. For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 479,059carloads and intermodal units, down 14.1% compared with the same week lastyear. Total carloads for the week ending April 9 were 229,704 carloads, down 20%compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was249,355 containers and trailers, down 7.8% compared to 2015.
RailwayAge
Walking through the exhibit hall at the Transportation Intermediaries Associationconference, one might mistake it for a technology convention. Freight brokersbelieve technology is the key to expansion in a “modest” economy. “I don’t thinkyou can talk about brokerage without talking about technology,” Jeff Tucker,chairman of the TIA and CEO of New Jersey logistics firm Tucker CompanyWorldwide said at the opening session of the 2016 TIA Capital Ideas Conferenceand Exhibition on Friday. “The third-party logistics industry is the most voraciousconsumer of technology in the transportation market,” Tucker said. “But most ofthe time I don’t believe that Wall Street investors or the media get that message.We are the marketplace for technology.”
Journal of Commerce
LOGISTICS | US 3PLS, FREIGHT BROKERS RELY ON TECHNOLOGY
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Date Sector Target Business Description Acquirer
4/13/2016* Logistics Indev Logistics Pvt. Ltd. Prov ides sea freight, air freight, and logistics serv ices. Kerry Logistics India Pvt.
Ltd.
4/11/2016* Air gategroup Holding AG Provides global air catering and hospitality, prov isioning and logistics,
and onboard products and serv ices.
HNA Group Co., Ltd.
4/4/2016 Trucking Internet Truckstop
Group LLC
Provides online freight matching serv ices for the trucking industry. Bregal Sagemount
4/4/2016* Air Virgin America Inc. Prov ides scheduled passenger air travel serv ices. Alaska Air Group, Inc.
3/14/2016* Logistics KLN Investment (US) LLC Provides ocean freight, air freight, trucking, customs brokerage, and
warehousing serv ices.
Kerry Logistics Holding (US)
Limited
3/14/2016* Logistics Coastal Pacific Xpress
Inc.
Prov ides refrigerated carrier serv ices specializing in the shipping of
perishable and ambient products throughout the U.S. and Canada.
VersaCold North America
Transportation Solutions
Limited
3/9/2016* Air Avjet Corporation Provides aircraft management and charter serv ices. Jet Aviation AG
3/8/2016 Logistics Almacenes De
Productos Congelados,
Insofrisa S.A And
Prov ides temperature controlled logistics solutions to manufacturers
and retailers.
AGRO Merchants Group,
LLC
3/1/2016 Equipment Interstar Fleet Serv ices Prov ider of emergency road serv ice repair solutions for the
intermodal and commercial trucking industries.
TRAC Intermodal LLC
2/29/2016 Air Aero Express Logistics
Pte Ltd
Provides air freight serv ices in Singapore. Midnite Air Corp.
2/11/2016 Logistics Advanced Distribution
Serv ices
Prov ides manufacturing serv ices and logistics serv ices through cross
docking facilities.
Dicom Transportation
Group, L.P.
2/9/2016 Logistics VersaCold North
America Transportation
Solutions Limited
Provides refrigerated truckload hauling serv ices. Versacold International
Corporation
2/3/2016 Marine Alliance Supply
Management Ltd.
Prov ides supply serv ices for commercial and industrial shippers in the
U.S. Gulf of Mexico and South Eastern U.S.
Ship Supply Of Florida, Inc.
2/2/2016 Marine Global Distribution and
Logistics LLC
Provides various freight transportation serv ices in the U.S. and
internationally.
Rockfarm Supply Chain
Solutions Inc.
1/14/2016 Logistics EZ Alternative Transport Prov ides bulk chemical hauling serv ices. Heniff Transportation
Systems
1/12/2016 Logistics Enroute Systems
Corporation
Provides SaaS transportation management systems. Pitney Bowes Inc.
1/11/2016 Logistics Consolidated Aviation
Serv ices LLC
Provides cargo handling serv ices throughout the United States and
South America.
Worldwide Flight Serv ices,
Inc.
12/29/2015* Logistics Sinotrans & CSC Holdings
Co. Ltd.
Prov ides integrated logistics solutions for customers in China and
internationally.
China Merchants Group
Limited
12/9/2015 Logistics United Transportation
Co LLC, Motor Fuel Fleet
Prov ides motor fuel delivery serv ices. Sentinel Transportation LLC
M&A TRANSACTIONS
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
*Denotes pending transactions
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
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(0.7%)
1.5%
8.2%
10.7%
11.9%
Rail & Rail Services
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Marine
Logistics Providers
3.7%
8.4%
14.0%
14.4%
14.6%
Marine
Logistics Providers
Rail & Rail Services
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
(1.7%)
(0.7%)
1.9%
5.9%
7.3%
Rail & Rail Services
Marine
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Logistics Providers
1.3%
3.8%
4.4%
5.7%
6.8%
Marine
Logistics Providers
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Rail & Rail Services
5.2x
5.4x
7.3x
8.3x
9.1x
Trucking
Transportation
Equipment
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
4.7x
5.3x
8.0x
8.3x
10.2x
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2016E EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015 – 2017P)
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
PAGE |
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
Mar-10-2015 Jun-10-2015 Sep-10-2015 Dec-10-2015 Mar-10-2016
Logistics Providers Trucking Rail and Rail Services
Marine Transportation Equipment S&P 500 Index
(29.8%)
(24.6%)
(20.4%)
(17.9%)
(7.3%)
(0.6%)
Trucking
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Transportation Equipment
Logistics Providers
S&P 500
(0.4%)
2.4%
3.0%
3.7%
4.9%
5.2%
Trucking
Marine
S&P 500
Logistics Providers
Rail & Rail Services
Transportation Equipment
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to April 13, 2015)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
PAGE |
OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
5
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
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RCL Services Group
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has been acquired by
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has been acquired by
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has been acquired by
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has merged with
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Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
PAGE |
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Transportation & Logistics
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OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
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Logistics Providers
Agility Public Warehousing Company K.S.C.P. $1,751 $1.56 3.1% (33.3%) $2.49 62.5% 9.9x 8.0x 6.1x NA NA
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. 1,240 15 3.1% 57.4% 16 95.0% 4.9x 4.6x 6.3x 5.9x 5.6x
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. 2,476 41 0.4% (8.6%) 59 68.7% 7.5x 6.3x 6.4x 6.7x 6.6x
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. 11,441 73 0.4% 3.1% 75 97.1% 13.9x 12.7x 12.5x 11.8x 11.2x
Deutsche Post AG 36,431 28 8.2% (13.2%) 35 81.5% 10.7x 11.4x 10.7x 6.7x 6.3x
DSV A/S 7,477 41 (3.3%) 25.7% 44 93.1% 13.6x 15.7x 14.5x 12.0x 11.0x
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. 916 26 (1.5%) 5.3% 34 75.1% 14.5x 19.1x NM 10.2x 8.4x
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. 8,042 48 0.8% 3.5% 52 93.6% 11.8x 11.2x 10.5x 10.3x 9.6x
FedEx Corporation 50,533 167 15.8% (2.5%) 185 90.3% 7.1x 6.4x 6.9x 6.6x 6.0x
Forward Air Corp. 1,445 45 7.4% (11.6%) 55 82.7% 11.9x 10.2x 10.3x 9.1x 8.0x
Hub Group Inc. 1,342 39 4.7% 5.7% 44 89.4% 10.1x 9.7x 8.7x 8.7x 8.1x
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. 10,741 86 4.9% (5.9%) 94 92.4% 11.9x 9.0x 10.2x 9.6x 8.7x
Kuehne + Nagel International AG 16,190 143 3.1% (2.8%) 150 95.2% 16.2x 15.6x 15.3x 14.6x 13.9x
Landstar System Inc. 2,754 65 3.0% (0.2%) 74 88.5% 11.3x 10.3x 10.2x 10.5x 9.7x
Panalpina World Transport Holding Ltd. 2,235 111 5.8% (24.1%) 148 75.1% NM 18.4x 15.3x 10.2x 8.6x
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. 920 12 1.0% (49.1%) 29 43.7% 10.4x 8.6x 7.1x 6.5x 6.2x
Ryder System, Inc. 8,974 66 6.7% (31.1%) 101 65.1% 5.8x 5.0x 5.1x 4.9x 4.6x
TransForce Inc. 3,018 18 4.2% (25.1%) 23 76.6% 10.6x 8.1x 8.9x 9.1x 8.9x
United Parcel Service, Inc. 102,927 106 4.7% 9.3% 107 98.3% 13.5x 11.9x 10.6x 9.9x 9.4x
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 655 16 (8.4%) (26.8%) 23 68.7% 7.4x 5.9x 6.1x 5.8x 5.6x
World Fuel Services Corp. 3,687 49 4.9% (13.8%) 58 85.3% 13.7x 10.0x 12.1x 10.8x 9.6x
XPO Logistics, Inc. 9,039 32 16.4% (25.5%) 51 62.5% NM NM NM 7.4x 6.2x
Median 3.7% (7.3%) 84.0% 11.0x 10.0x 10.2x 9.1x 8.4x
Trucking
ArcBest Corporation $532 $21.14 (6.2%) (42.0%) $39.78 53.1% 5.4x 3.5x 3.2x 3.2x 2.8x
Celadon Group Inc. 796 9.82 (0.5%) (64.1%) 28.17 34.9% 9.2x 8.0x 6.6x 5.5x 4.9x
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. 665 23.07 6.4% (28.3%) 35.85 64.4% 7.6x 4.4x 5.1x 5.2x 4.9x
Heartland Express, Inc. 1,444 17.75 (5.3%) (23.3%) 23.50 75.5% 9.8x 8.6x 7.5x 6.6x 6.2x
Knight Transportation Inc. 2,215 26.14 0.2% (18.4%) 33.00 79.2% 10.6x 7.0x 7.9x 7.5x 6.9x
Marten Transport Ltd. 619 17.94 (0.3%) (25.1%) 24.92 72.0% 6.5x 4.5x 4.9x 4.4x 4.1x
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. 5,898 68.90 0.1% (4.6%) 75.63 91.1% 10.3x 8.2x 8.9x 8.3x 7.6x
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. 308 25.51 (18.4%) (56.9%) 67.61 37.7% 8.3x 5.3x 4.9x NA NA
Saia, Inc. 767 27.95 2.1% (32.6%) 45.24 61.8% 7.3x 5.8x 4.9x 4.9x 4.5x
Swift Transportation Company 3,719 17.85 1.5% (31.2%) 26.58 67.2% 8.3x 5.7x 6.1x 5.7x 5.3x
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 655 15.66 (8.4%) (26.8%) 22.80 68.7% 7.4x 5.9x 6.1x 5.8x 5.6x
USA Truck Inc. 260 16.75 (6.2%) (39.1%) 29.08 57.6% 6.4x 4.8x 4.7x 4.8x 4.5x
Werner Enterprises Inc. 2,039 27.70 0.6% (11.5%) 31.62 87.6% 6.9x 5.2x 5.4x 5.0x 4.7x
YRC Worldwide Inc. 1,216 9.39 (0.8%) (43.0%) 21.37 43.9% 6.2x 4.7x 4.7x 3.7x 3.3x
Median (0.4%) (29.8%) 65.8% 7.5x 5.5x 5.3x 5.2x 4.9x
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Apr-15 Oct-15 Current 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
PAGE |
Rail and Rail Services
American Railcar Industries, Inc. $1,290 $45.01 7.7% (14.1%) $67.31 66.9% 6.3x 5.6x 4.7x 5.1x NA
Canadian National Railway Company 57,506 63 1.9% (1.0%) 65 97.5% 12.9x 11.2x 11.5x 11.8x 11.2x
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited 29,306 149 9.8% (17.7%) 188 79.3% 15.1x 12.1x 12.1x 11.8x 11.1x
CSX Corp. 34,324 26 (0.3%) (21.6%) 38 69.1% 8.5x 7.4x 7.3x 7.4x 7.0x
FreightCar America Inc. 100 17 5.3% (43.5%) 32 53.8% 8.4x 4.3x 2.0x 2.0x 2.8x
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. 6,002 64 6.1% (32.3%) 97 66.1% 11.3x 9.8x 10.2x 10.2x 9.6x
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 1,154 32 20.3% (48.8%) 67 48.7% 6.7x 3.5x 2.2x 2.4x 3.8x
Kansas City Southern 12,366 91 6.1% (14.3%) 108 83.6% 12.6x 12.0x 11.3x 10.9x 10.1x
Norfolk Southern Corporation 33,306 81 2.7% (19.3%) 107 75.6% 9.2x 7.9x 8.4x 8.3x 7.7x
Trinity Industries Inc. 5,717 20 4.6% (44.7%) 37 53.5% 6.0x 4.8x 3.7x 4.3x 5.1x
Union Pacific Corporation 81,700 82 0.6% (24.5%) 111 73.4% 9.7x 8.8x 8.1x 8.3x 7.8x
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation 7,943 81 4.5% (14.2%) 105 77.3% 15.0x 13.8x 11.8x 11.7x 11.6x
Median 4.9% (20.4%) 71.2% 9.4x 8.3x 8.3x 8.3x 7.8x
Marine
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. $958 $7.71 0.9% (46.4%) $15.71 49.1% 13.1x 10.8x 8.5x 7.1x 6.7x
Costamare Inc. 2,312 11 22.7% (43.0%) 21 52.2% 9.6x 8.1x 7.3x 7.1x 7.3x
Diana Shipping Inc. 658 3 14.7% (49.9%) 8 36.8% 16.0x NM NM NM NM
Kirby Corporation 4,185 63 5.0% (21.6%) 84 75.0% 8.1x 7.4x 7.3x 8.5x 8.1x
Matson, Inc. 2,043 38 (0.5%) (9.0%) 53 70.9% 8.0x 9.3x 6.9x 6.1x 6.0x
Neptune Orient Lines Limited 5,410 1 1.6% 24.5% 1 99.6% 15.4x 12.1x NM 11.4x 10.0x
Nordic American Tankers Limited 1,575 14 3.1% 11.4% 17 81.9% 15.2x 9.7x 7.5x 7.7x 8.6x
Rand Logistics, Inc. 212 1 (17.9%) (74.0%) 4 23.7% 8.1x 8.0x 8.6x 7.3x 5.8x
SEACOR Holdings Inc. 1,482 56 7.8% (25.2%) 79 70.8% 8.9x 9.6x 10.1x 7.4x 7.2x
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA 2,086 5 (1.8%) (24.1%) 6 75.9% 15.1x 10.4x 11.3x 5.0x 4.6x
Median 2.4% (24.6%) 70.8% 11.3x 9.6x 8.0x 7.3x 7.2x
Transportation Equipment
Accuride Corp. $379 $1.61 (1.8%) (65.2%) $4.77 33.8% 6.8x 5.6x 4.9x 5.4x 5.2x
Dana Holding Corporation 2,763 14 5.2% (35.4%) 23 60.2% 5.7x 5.2x 4.5x 4.2x 4.0x
Gentherm Incorporated 1,500 43 7.3% (17.9%) 58 73.5% 13.8x 11.3x 9.8x 9.1x 8.1x
Spartan Motors Inc. 133 5 21.1% (5.6%) 5 92.3% 15.7x 14.5x NM 12.2x 9.0x
Wabash National Corp. 987 13 3.4% (7.7%) 15 85.5% 6.8x 4.7x 4.5x 4.7x 5.6x
Median 5.2% (17.9%) 73.5% 6.8x 5.6x 4.7x 5.4x 5.6x
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Apr-15 Oct-15 Current 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PAGE |
Logistics Providers
Agility Public Warehousing Company K.S.C.P. $5,039 $4,873 $4,633 $4,294 NA NA (5.2%) NA $254 $296 $265 $285 NA NA 3.9% NA
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. 607 580 590 619 625 651 0.6% 2.5% 163 158 179 198 212 223 6.7% 6.0%
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. 1,632 1,643 1,785 1,807 1,897 1,937 3.5% 3.5% 296 307 344 390 375 379 9.6% (1.5%)
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. 11,359 12,752 13,470 13,476 13,611 14,551 5.9% 3.9% 751 731 797 915 974 1,026 6.8% 5.9%
Deutsche Post AG 73,191 75,621 68,547 64,328 69,539 72,015 (4.2%) 5.8% 4,129 5,116 4,469 3,279 5,403 5,768 (7.4%) 32.6%
DSV A/S 7,937 8,439 7,896 7,403 10,752 11,252 (2.3%) 23.3% 519 543 486 497 631 696 (1.5%) 18.4%
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. 758 884 1,173 1,512 1,851 2,196 25.9% 20.5% 27 27 36 45 89 108 18.9% 54.7%
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. 5,992 6,080 6,565 6,617 7,004 7,350 3.4% 5.4% 571 600 644 767 779 838 10.4% 4.5%
FedEx Corporation 42,680 44,287 45,567 47,453 49,899 51,964 3.6% 4.6% 5,367 6,112 6,417 7,141 7,594 8,369 10.0% 8.3%
Forward Air Corp. 584 652 781 959 1,022 1,089 18.0% 6.6% 104 107 127 141 161 179 10.7% 12.8%
Hub Group Inc. 3,124 3,374 3,571 3,526 3,614 3,818 4.1% 4.1% 134 138 135 154 160 169 4.8% 4.6%
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. 4,058 4,527 5,083 5,516 6,634 7,294 10.8% 15.0% 759 830 926 1,055 1,127 1,230 11.6% 8.0%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG 18,699 19,290 17,618 16,711 21,768 22,679 (3.7%) 16.5% 979 1,070 987 1,022 1,106 1,173 1.4% 7.1%
Landstar System Inc. 2,735 2,628 3,145 3,277 3,237 3,461 6.2% 2.8% 223 201 250 271 263 279 6.6% 1.6%
Panalpina World Transport Holding Ltd. 7,227 7,589 6,752 5,848 6,318 6,539 (6.8%) 5.7% 92 161 150 141 214 254 15.4% 34.4%
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. 1,073 1,361 1,873 1,995 2,014 2,119 23.0% 3.1% 81 99 121 130 142 153 17.0% 8.4%
Ryder System, Inc. 6,257 6,419 6,639 6,572 6,759 7,086 1.7% 3.8% 1,396 1,473 1,637 1,764 1,842 1,931 8.1% 4.6%
TransForce Inc. 2,822 2,620 2,817 2,617 2,924 2,974 (2.5%) 6.6% 392 318 361 313 322 341 (7.2%) 4.3%
United Parcel Service, Inc. 54,127 55,438 58,232 58,363 61,812 64,807 2.5% 5.4% 3,201 8,868 6,864 9,747 10,442 11,015 44.9% 6.3%
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 1,037 1,033 1,192 1,129 1,157 1,202 2.9% 3.2% 96 105 115 108 110 116 4.2% 3.4%
World Fuel Services Corp. 38,945 41,562 43,386 30,380 29,545 32,360 (7.9%) 3.2% 287 301 319 304 353 390 2.0% 13.3%
XPO Logistics, Inc. 279 702 2,357 7,623 15,250 16,545 NM NM (25) (20) 95 417 1,245 1,440 NM 85.8%*
Total $290,163 $302,356 $303,671 $292,025 $317,233 $333,889 3.8% 7.3% $19,796 $27,540 $25,722 $29,084 $33,542 $36,076 8.4% 11.9%
Trucking
ArcBest Corporation $2,066 $2,300 $2,613 $2,667 $2,745 $2,879 8.9% 3.9% $70 $104 $155 $165 $165 $190 33.0% 7.5%
Celadon Group Inc. 475 489 615 770 1,082 1,137 17.5% 21.5% 103 100 97 118 147 163 4.7% 17.5%
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. 527 539 579 640 707 758 6.7% 8.8% 71 65 89 130 124 137 22.1% 2.6%
Heartland Express, Inc. 546 582 871 736 720 750 10.5% 0.9% 138 149 208 193 215 232 12.0% 9.4%
Knight Transportation Inc. 752 792 926 1,062 1,191 1,278 12.2% 9.7% 184 192 239 281 295 321 15.1% 7.0%
Marten Transport Ltd. 638 659 673 665 695 742 1.4% 5.6% 101 110 115 127 140 152 7.7% 9.4%
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. 2,135 2,338 2,788 2,972 3,118 3,378 11.7% 6.6% 396 460 587 660 711 781 18.6% 8.8%
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. 298 313 317 355 NA NA 6.1% NA 41 50 55 63 NA NA 15.3% NA
Saia, Inc. 1,099 1,139 1,272 1,221 1,222 1,288 3.6% 2.7% 107 126 145 155 153 172 13.2% 5.3%
Swift Transportation Company 3,976 4,118 4,299 3,782 4,303 4,496 (1.7%) 9.0% 573 577 583 606 651 700 1.9% 7.4%
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 1,037 1,033 1,192 1,129 1,157 1,202 2.9% 3.2% 96 105 115 108 110 116 4.2% 3.4%
USA Truck Inc. 512 555 602 508 476 501 (0.3%) (0.7%) 20 35 60 56 54 58 41.6% 1.8%
Werner Enterprises Inc. 2,036 2,029 2,139 2,094 2,138 2,237 0.9% 3.4% 318 296 318 374 407 432 5.6% 7.4%
YRC Worldwide Inc. 4,851 4,865 5,069 4,832 4,821 5,005 (0.1%) 1.8% 198 199 197 259 328 369 9.3% 19.5%
Total $20,948 $21,752 $23,955 $23,434 $24,376 $25,650 5.7% 5.9% $2,415 $2,567 $2,962 $3,294 $3,499 $3,821 14.6% 8.2%
Revenue Avg. Revenue Growth EBITDA Avg. EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Transportation & Logistics
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
*Excluded from averages
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Rail and Rail Services
American Railcar Industries, Inc. $712 $751 $733 $889 $823 $674 7.7% (12.9%) $145 $179 $204 $272 $251 NA 23.3% NA
Canadian National Railway Company 9,952 9,954 10,478 9,089 9,304 9,795 (3.0%) 3.8% 4,624 4,568 4,900 4,630 4,872 5,146 0.0% 5.4%
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited 5,568 5,631 5,582 4,722 4,901 5,172 (5.3%) 4.7% 1,774 2,194 2,434 2,246 2,466 2,649 8.2% 8.6%
CSX Corp. 11,763 12,026 12,669 11,811 11,218 11,694 0.1% (0.5%) 4,523 4,577 4,803 4,799 4,613 4,939 2.0% 1.4%
FreightCar America Inc. 677 290 599 773 718 624 4.5% (10.2%) 41 (8) 17 51 50 38 7.9% (13.7%)
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. 875 1,569 1,639 2,000 2,010 2,100 31.7% 2.5% 277 534 574 586 591 625 28.4% 3.3%
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 1,736 1,685 2,121 2,507 2,771 2,157 13.0% (7.2%) 152 145 237 437 471 319 42.1% (14.6%)
Kansas City Southern 2,239 2,369 2,577 2,419 2,388 2,552 2.6% 2.7% 872 962 1,106 1,098 1,131 1,222 8.0% 5.5%
Norfolk Southern Corporation 11,040 11,245 11,624 10,511 10,076 10,601 (1.6%) 0.4% 4,046 4,179 4,531 3,943 4,031 4,320 (0.9%) 4.7%
Trinity Industries Inc. 3,812 4,365 6,170 6,393 5,792 5,211 18.8% (9.7%) 730 963 1,400 1,527 1,355 1,198 27.9% (11.4%)
Union Pacific Corporation 19,686 20,684 22,560 20,397 20,965 21,900 1.2% 3.6% 8,505 9,223 10,657 10,064 9,898 10,508 5.8% 2.2%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation 2,391 2,566 3,044 3,308 3,407 3,475 11.4% 2.5% 436 485 588 672 688 685 15.5% 0.9%
Total $70,451 $73,136 $79,795 $74,820 $74,373 $75,955 6.8% (1.7%) $26,125 $28,000 $31,451 $30,325 $30,416 $31,648 14.0% (0.7%)
Marine
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. $7,259 $6,335 $6,662 $4,233 $4,550 $4,831 (16.5%) 6.8% $85 $75 $98 $113 $136 $145 10.1% 13.2%
Costamare Inc. 386 414 484 490 487 476 8.3% (1.5%) 238 258 318 318 326 318 10.1% 0.0%
Diana Shipping Inc. 221 164 176 158 121 139 (10.6%) (6.0%) 124 53 50 25 (2) 14 (41.2%) (25.2%)
Kirby Corporation 2,113 2,242 2,566 2,148 1,874 1,905 0.5% (5.8%) 509 582 647 573 494 509 4.1% (5.8%)
Matson, Inc. 1,560 1,637 1,714 1,885 2,077 2,152 6.5% 6.8% 175 172 203 298 337 345 19.5% 7.7%
Neptune Orient Lines Limited 9,512 8,831 8,617 5,383 5,874 6,061 (17.3%) 6.1% 96 131 294 255 429 525 38.6% 43.5%
Nordic American Tankers Limited 131 244 351 446 288 272 50.5% (21.9%) 13 (21) 60 211 201 179 150.9% (7.9%)
Rand Logistics, Inc. 109 119 129 131 145 144 6.3% 4.9% 28 25 29 30 29 36 2.7% 9.5%
SEACOR Holdings Inc. 1,308 1,247 1,319 1,055 1,089 1,156 (6.9%) 4.7% 165 194 241 147 199 205 (3.7%) 18.0%
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA 395 325 285 313 2,345 2,370 (7.5%) NM 227 154 140 185 429 440 (6.6%) 54.2%
Total $22,993 $21,559 $22,303 $16,241 $18,850 $19,506 1.3% (0.7%) $1,658 $1,624 $2,080 $2,154 $2,578 $2,716 18.4% 10.7%
Transportation Equipment
Accuride Corp. $795 $643 $705 $686 $678 $691 (4.8%) 0.4% $65 $43 $75 $77 $70 $78 5.9% 0.8%
Dana Holding Corporation 7,224 6,769 6,617 6,060 5,847 6,207 (5.7%) 1.2% 753 706 705 618 651 690 (6.4%) 5.6%
Gentherm Incorporated 555 662 811 856 946 1,043 15.6% 10.4% 67 84 135 153 167 185 31.4% 9.9%
Spartan Motors Inc. 471 470 507 550 554 578 5.4% 2.5% 16 6 9 0 11 15 (90.6%) NM
Wabash National Corp. 1,462 1,636 1,863 2,027 1,958 1,825 11.5% (5.1%) 108 142 161 219 213 175 26.5% (10.6%)
Total $10,506 $10,179 $10,504 $10,180 $9,984 $10,346 4.4% 1.9% $1,008 $981 $1,084 $1,066 $1,111 $1,142 (6.6%) 1.5%
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016
Revenue Avg. Revenue Growth EBITDA Avg. EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P '12-15 '15-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017P '12-15 '15-17P
Transportation & Logistics
PAGE |
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. Capital IQ.
2. MergerMarket.
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DISCLOSURES
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INDUSTRY UPDATE │ APRIL 2016