transportation (roads) nairobi county
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JICA STUDY TEAMFor The Project on Integrated Urban Development MasterPlan for the City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya
The Project on Integrated Urban Development Plan for
The City of Nairobi in the Republic of Kenya
4th Thematic Technical Working Group
13th Nov 2013
Road and Urban Transport Sector
1
1. Progress of the Study
2. Future Transport Network Plan
1) Alternative Plans
2) Road Network Plan
3) Public Transport Network Plan
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result1) General Methodology
2) Result of Demand Forecast
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast
5. Staging Plan
1) Basic Strategy
2) Road Development Plan
3) Public Transport Development Plan
4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan6. Conclusion and Recommendation
2
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1. Progress of the Study
1. Progress of the Study 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
3
2. Future Transport Network Plan
1) Alternative Plans
The following Alternative Plans are analyzed to establish network.
Do-nothing Case:Future (2030) traffic demand to present network
Case 0:On-going ProjectFuture traffic demand on existing network and on-goingprojects**Refer to next page.
Case 1: Road Development Oriented Case
2006 Road Networked reinforced by future traffic demandand land use plan
Case 2: Utilization of Commuter Rail Case
Future road network with Commuter Railway networkCase 3: Introduction of Selective MRTS Case
Case 2+selective/modified MRTS network where demandconcentrates
2. Future Transport Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
4
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*On-going ProjectsThe following projects are included in the on-going projects. Expanding and upgrading of the Northern Corridor Road including
the Elevated highway over the Uhuru Highway
Construction of Southern Bypass Road Construction of Missing Link Roads financed by EU Dualling of Outer Ring Road Construction of Western Ring Roads Widening of Ngong Road from Kenyatta Ave. intersection to
Dagoretti Widening of Juja Road Upgrading of Langata Road of KWS Gate-Bomas Junction Section
2. Future Transport Network Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
5
a) Basic Policy for Road Network Plan
Basic network shall be 2006 M/P (NUTRANS) andreinforced in the following aspects:
Strengthen circumferential/radial (C/R) network
system. Strengthen radial road network connecting
surrounding area of Nairobi.(Necessary capacity will be estimated by demandforecast.)
Development of new road required by the land useplan.
Strengthen east-west axis roads
Traffic assignment of future traffic demand toexisting road(Do-nothing Case) will be analyzedand necessary capacity will be adopted.
2) Road Network Plan
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
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4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
b)RoadNetworkProposedbyNUTRANS
7
c)ResultofTrafficAssignmentofDonothingCase2030trafficdemandtopresentnetwork
Source: JICA Survey Team (JST) VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all t e of vehicles
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
8
VCR Situation
-1.0Free flow. Trafficcongestion does notappear.
10-1.25
Traffic congestionmay appear at apeak hour.
1.251.50
Traffic congestionappears at a peakhour.
1.50- Traffic congestionmay appear all day.
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d) Evaluation of Demand Forecast of Alternative 0
Mombasa Rd Waiyaki Way shows VCR over 1.50. Thika Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Outer Ring Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Juja Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Jogoo Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Langata Rd shows VCR over 1.50. Ngong Rd. shows partially VCR over 1.50. Eastern Bypass shows VCR over 1.50.
Widening of Langata Rd to 6-lanes. Widening of Jogoo Rd to 6-lanes. Widening of Eastern Bypass to 4-lanes. Introduction of MRTS to over capacity roads. Especially on-going
project roads.
In addition to the road network proposed by NUTRANS, the followingmeasures are required in future road network.
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
9
2. Future Transport Network Plan Road Network 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
e) Future Road Network in 2030
Remark: Route of the circumferential road C2 was altered considering its feasibility. 10
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3) Public Transport Network Plan
a) Commuter Rail Network Proposed by NUTRIP
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
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Legend
Bus Rapid Transit
Light Rail Transit
Metro Rail
Commuter RailTransit Hub
Transit Terminal
Transit Interchange
c) Public Transport Network Proposed by MRTS
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
12
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d) Evaluation of Priority Corridor
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
13
e) Selected Priority Corridors and Routes
LRT circular route is
proposed in order todecrease the number ofvehicles going into CBD andmake the CBD NMT area.
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
14
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Viaduct-1
Viaduct-2
New Bus Terminal
g)Terminal Plan
Development of new bus/matatu terminal in the railway city isproposed to alleviate the congestion at the present terminal.
Inter-city bus terminals are proposed at the outskirt of urban area.
Those terminals also assist the creation of sub-centers.
Concept of new terminalin the railway city
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector2. Future Transport Network Plan
15
1) General Methodology : Four-step-method
Estimation of Future Population, etc.
Trip Generated and Attracted
Trip Distribution
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
Future Traffic Volume
The trip generated and attracted volume by zone isforecast from the trip production.
OD table which set trip generated and attracted volumeto an Origin/Destination is calculated.
The traffic among zones is split by transportation mode.
OD table by modal split is assigned to the transportationnetwork
Trip Production The purpose-oriented trip produced in the overall area isforecast.
Person Trip Survey
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
16
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VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
ii)AssignmentofFutureTrafficDemand(2030)toExistingNetwork(2013)
b) Vehicle Assignment Result
19
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
iii)Alternative0:OngoingProject VehicleAssignment
b) Vehicle Assignment Result
20
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
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VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
iv)Alternative1:RoadDevelopmentOrientedCase VehicleAssignment
b) Vehicle Assignment Result
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
21
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
b) Vehicle Assignment Result
v) Alternative2:Utilizationof CommuterRailCase VehicleAssignment
22
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
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VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
b) Vehicle Assignment Result
vi)Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase VehicleAssignment
23
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
c) Public Transport Assignment Result
i)Alternative2:Utilizationof CommuterRailCase PublicTransport Assignment
24
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Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
ii)Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase PublicTransportAssignment
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
25
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
ii)2Alternative3:IntroductionofSelectiveMRTSCase PublicTransportAssignment
Scaled up
3. Traffic Demand Forecast Result 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
26
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Alternative YearVehicle-km TotalPCU-km000)
Vehicle-hours TotalPCU-HourAverageSpeedkm/h)
AverageVCRVolumeCapacityRatio)Existing Case 2013 17,780 431,690 41.2 0.54
Do Nothing Case 2030 39,110 1,692,480 23.1 1.19
0 On-going ProjectCase
2030 37,670 1,173,180 32.1 1.02
1 Road DevelopmentOriented Case
2030 36,490 929,850 39.2 0.85
2 Utilization ofCommuter Rail Case
2030 35,090 880,110 39.9 0.81
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2030 30,540 725,460 42.1 0.71
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
a)ResultinStudyArea
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast
1) MajorIndicesbyVehicleAssignment
4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
b)ResultinNairobiCity1) MajorIndicesbyVehicleAssignment
Alternative YearVehicle-km TotalPCU-km000)
Vehicle-hours TotalPCU-HourAverageSpeedkm/h)
AverageVCRVolumeCapacityRatio)Existing Case 2013 10,960 273,910 40.0 0.69
Do Nothing Case 2030 25,320 1,254,120 20.2 1.60
0 On-going ProjectCase
2030 25,520 805,560 31.7 1.32
1 Road DevelopmentOriented Case
2030 24,830 621,140 40.0 1.05
2 Utilization ofCommuter Rail Case 2030 23,790 582,600 40.8 1.003 Introduction of
Selective MRTS Case2030 19,450 433,330 44.9 0.82
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2) Congestion Ratio by Vehicle Assignment
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
a)ResultinStudyArea
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
Unit : km
29
CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Do Nothingin 2030 Alternative 0in 2030 Alternative 1in 2030 Alternative 2in 2030 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 1,114.7 563.5 770.2 887.2 908.2 1,010.4
0.8 - 1.0 116.4 199.7 134.8 178.7 193.3 212.81.0 - 1.2 106.9 151.9 120.3 155.7 151.7 136.41.2 - 1.5 84.1 131.3 188.2 163.8 166.1 110.8
1.5 - 29.2 405.0 272.3 133.3 99.3 48.3TOTAL 1,451.4 1,451.4 1,485.8 1,518.7 1,518.7 1,518.7
76.8%
38.8%
51.8%
58.4%
59.8%
66.5%
8.0%
13.8%
9.1%
11.8%
12.7%
14.0%
7.4%
10.5%
8.1%
10.3%
10.0%
9.0%
5.8%
9.0%
12.7%
10.8%
10.9%
7.3%
2.0%
27.9%
18.3%
8.8%
6.5%
3.2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Existing
2013
DoNothingCase
2030
Alternative0
2030
Alternative1
2030
Alternative2
2030
Alternative3
2030
0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
Unit : km
2) Congestion Ratio by Vehicle Assignment b)ResultinNairobiCity
30
CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Do Nothingin 2030 Alternative 0in 2030 Alternative 1in 2030 Alternative 2in 2030 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 510.2 171.1 243.3 329.6 343.5 450.6
0.8 - 1.0 81.0 69.2 81.8 127.6 144.5 151.41.0 - 1.2 69.5 80.6 87.2 109.9 117.1 107.61.2 - 1.5 62.3 85.8 139.1 143.3 131.4 83.9
1.5 - 28.1 344.5 227.4 97.6 71.4 14.5TOTAL 751.2 751.2 778.9 807.9 807.9 807.9
67.9%
22.8%
31.2%
40.8%
42.5%
55.8%
10.8%
9.2%
10.5%
15.8%
17.9%
18.7%
9.3%
10.7%
11.2%
13.6%
14.5%
13.3%
8.3%
11.4%
17.9%
17.7%
16.3%
10.4%
3.7%
45.9%
29.2%
12.1%
8.8%
1.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Existing
2013
DoNothingCase
2030
Alternative0
2030
Alternative1
2030Alternative2
2030
Alternative3
2030
0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
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- Comparing the indices of Alternative 0 to 3, vehicle-km,vehicle-hours and average VCR decrease due to the
development of Mass Transit.
- Development of roads cannot solve the traffic congestionas shown in p.21. Reinforcement of mass transit andintroduction of new transit system are requisite.
- By reinforcement of commuter rail and introduction of BRTto 6 corridors, traffic congestion is eased especially in theeastern area of city centre.
- As the result, Alternative 3 is recommended solutionagainst the future increasing traffic demand.
3) Evaluation of Alternatives
4. Analysis and Evaluation of Traffic Demand Forecast 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
31
1) Basic Strategy
5. Staging Plan
Target of road and urban transport1) Network in coordination with land use2) Network for world class mobility
1st Phase
Present to 2018
2nd Phase
2019 to 2023
3rd Phase
2024 to 2030
Network in
coordination
with Land
Use
Study/technical
assistance for
development of
infrastructure in
Railway City
Development of
infrastructure in
Railway City
Network
development to
connect sub-
centres
Network for
world class
mobility
Improvement of
network to solve
existing issues.
Institutional
arrangement for
strengthening public
transport
Introduction of MRTS
to pilot corridors.
Development of road
corridors to introduce
MRTS
Strengthening of
circumferential roads
to form the C/R
network
Expand
introduction of
MRTS to plural
corridors
Establishment of
C/R network
system
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
32
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Short Term (-2018) Road Network
2) Road Development Plan
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
33
Medium Term (-2023) Road Network
2) Road Development Plan
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
34
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Long Term (-2030) Road Network
2) Road Development Plan
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
35
Medium Term (-2023) Public Transport Network
3) Public Transport Development Plan
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
36
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Long Term (-2030) Publ ic Transport Network
3) Public Transport Development Plan
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
37
1) Result of Modal Split Forecast
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
4) Demand Forecast and Evaluation of Staging Plan
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
38
Alternative Year WALK PRIVATE BUS NewTransport RAIL TOTALExisting 2013 3,090,103 916,624 2,754,489 - 14,006 6,775,222
3Introduction of
Selective MRTS 2018 3,246,051 1,289,796 3,281,824 - 14,416 7,832,087
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS
2023 3,606,326 1,506,186 3,564,101 - 181,736 8,858,349
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS
2030 3,951,711 1,767,773 4,062,046 45,692 190,456 10,017,678
45.6%
41.4%
40.7%
39.4%
13.5%
16.5%
17.0%
17.6%
40.7%
41.9%
40.2%
40.5%
0.2%
0.2%
2.1%
1.9%
0.5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2013
Alternative3
2018
Alternative3
2023
Alternative3
2030
WALK PRIVATE BUS RAIL NewTransport
Unit : Trips
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Source: JICA Survey Team (JST)VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
i) Existing in 2013
2) Vehicle Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
39
Source: JICA Survey Team (JST)VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
ii) Alternative 3 in 2018
2) Vehicle Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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Source: JICA Survey Team (JST)VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
iv) Alternative 3 in 2023
2) Vehicle Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
41
Source: JICA Survey Team (JST)VCR: Volume Capacity RatioVolume includes all type of vehicles
v) Alternative 3 in 2030
2) Vehicle Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
ii) Alternative 3 in 2023
3) Public Transport Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
43
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
iii)-1 Alternative 3 in 2030
3) Public Transport Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
v) Alternative 3 in 2023 (Scaled up)
3) Public Transport Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
45
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
vi) Alternative 3 in 2030 (Scaled up)
3) Public Transport Assignment Result
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
46
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i) Result in Study Area2) Major Indices by Traffic Assignment
Alternative YearVehicle-km TotalPCU-km000)
Vehicle-hours TotalPCU-HourAverageSpeedkm/h)
AverageVCRVolumeCapacityRatio)Existing Case 2013 17,780 431,690 41.2 0.54
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2018 24,170 618,900 39.1 0.69
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2023 27,000 680,230 39.7 0.72
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2030 30,540 725,460 42.1 0.71
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
47
ii) Result in Nairobi City2) Major Indices by Traffic Assignment
Alternative YearVehicle-km TotalPCU-km000)
Vehicle-hours TotalPCU-HourAverageSpeedkm/h)
AverageVCRVolumeCapacityRatio)Existing Case 2013 10,960 273,910 40.0 0.69
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2018 16,210 424,160 38.2 0.92
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2023 18,040 444,960 40.6 0.90
3 Introduction ofSelective MRTS Case
2030 19,450 433,330 44.9 0.82
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
48
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
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i) Result in Study Area3) Congestion Ratio by Traffic Assignment
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
Unit : km
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
49
76.8%
66.8%
67.1%
66.5%
8.0%
10.9%
9.9%
14.0%
7.4%
6.8%
8.2%
9.0%
5.8%
8.8%
7.6%
7.3%
2.0%
6.6%
7.2%
3.2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Existing
2013
Alternative3
2018
Alternative3
2023
Alternative3
2030
0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Alternative 3in 2018 Alternative 3-1 in 2023 Alternative 3-2 in 2023 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 1,114.7 989.4 980.4 1,004.1 1,010.4
0.8 - 1.0 116.4 161.4 147.2 148.7 212.81.0 - 1.2 106.9 101.1 127.9 122.3 136.41.2 - 1.5 84.1 130.9 129.0 113.9 110.8
1.5 - 29.2 98.1 111.7 107.1 48.3TOTAL 1,451.4 1,480.9 1,496.2 1,496.2 1,518.7
50
ii) Result in Nairobi City3) Congestion Ratio by Traffic Assignment
Source: JICA Study Team (JST)
Unit : km
5. Staging Plan 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
CongestionRatio Existing in2013 Alternative 3in 2018 Alternative 3-1 in 2023 Alternative 3-2 in 2023 Alternative 3in 2030-0.8 510.2 389.8 403.4 419.0 450.6
0.8 - 1.0 81.0 122.6 108.6 116.9 151.41.0 - 1.2 69.5 77.7 106.5 95.9 107.61.2 - 1.5 62.3 100.9 100.9 93.1 83.9
1.5 - 28.1 83.0 69.9 64.3 14.5TOTAL 751.2 773.9 789.3 789.3 807.9
67.9%
50.4%
53.1%
55.8%
10.8%
15.8%
14.8%
18.7%
9.3%
10.0%
12.2%
13.3%
8.3%
13.0%
11.8%
10.4%
3.7%
10.7%
8.1%
1.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Existing
2013
Alternative3
2018
Alternative3
2023
Alternative3
2030
0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
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6. Conclusion and Recommendation 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
6. Conclusion and Recommendation
General1. In the short term and medium term, traffic condition will
worsen because improvement of network cannot catch up the
increasing traffic demand.2. Under the condition that the proposed plan is implemented,
transport condition will be improved in the target year. To thisend, improvement of public transport network as well as roadnetwork is essential to realize future transport network.
Road Network1. Improvement of Mombasa Rd-Waiyaki Way is crucial project
for the whole Nairobi city. According to the analysis of the
study, viaduct over Nyayo Stadium round about is necessary toreduce congestion. (See P.42)
2. Entry of heavy vehicles inside the area surrounded by eastern,northern and southern bypass shall be restricted after thecompletion of southern bypass.
51
6. Conclusion and Recommendation 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
Public Transport Network1. In order to materialize the MRTS plan, not only the physical
infrastructure but also institutional framework, especiallyestablishment of operator, is basically requested.
2. Obtaining general consensus for the improvement of transport
network among the passengers and operators of bus/matatu isalso requested.
Short Term MeasuresResult of traffic demand forecast shows the traffic congestionworsen in the short term and medium term . To cope with the issue,various measures should be undertaken.
1. System signal controlIntegrated Urban Surveillance System (IUSS) is now introducedto CBD area. But traffic congestion occurs in wider area,especially along the radial trunk road in the city, system signalcontrol in the whole city area is expected.
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2. Introduction of bus-exclusive lane.Even before introduction of BRT, bus exclusive lane is effectiveto enhance the use of public transport.
3. Staggered working hours
In the morning peak, more than 20% of private car arrival isfrom 7:00 to 8:00. But the before and after the peak hour,traffic volume decreases to only 5%. Staggered working hourscan use the transport facilities more efficiently.
4. Streamline the fleet CarrierIn the information age, volume of commodity has becomesmaller but frequency has become high. Introduction ofcooperating distribution system is highly required to decreasethe number of vehicle trips in the business area.
5. Relocation of Bus terminalsAlong with the land use plan for development of sub-centersin the outskirts area, disposition of bus terminals is expected.These terminals will function as the transfer terminal frommatatu to large bus.
6. Conclusion and Recommendation 4th TWG/ Road and Urban Transport Sector
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