TRB Webinar: U.S. Transportation System Scenarios to 2050 in a World Addressing Climate Change

September 10, 2009, 2:30 PM EDT

Today’s Presenters and Moderator

George Schoener,1-95 Corridor Coalition

Dan Sperling, Institute of Transportation Studies at University of California, Davis

Gail Achterman, Oregon Transportation Commission / Oregon State University

Diana Bauer, Environmental Protection Agency

Upcoming TRB Webinars:Find them at

http://www.trb.org/ElectronicSessions/Public/Webinars1.aspx

Thursday, September 17, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT Slope Maintenance and Slide Restoration

Thursday, October 1, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDTCreating an Innovative Workforce: Augmenting Words, Equations, and Data with Visualization

Tuesday October 6, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDTState and Local Government Responses to Climate Change

A 2040 Vision for the I-95 Corridor:Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained Environment

George Schoener, Executive Director Transportation System Scenarios

Addressing Climate ChangeSeptember 10, 2009

Transportation Vision 2040

• The Region

• Consequences of “Business as Usual”

• 2040 Vision Principles

• What Will It Take to Achieve the Vision?

• What Will It Cost?

outline

The I-95 Corridor Coalition

• Population:– 42 of the nation’s 100 largest

metropolitan areas– 110 million residents (37% of the

nation’s population, on 10% of its land)– 272 people per square mile

(3+ times more densely populated than the U.S. as a whole, and more densely populated than many Western European countries)

• Economy:– $4.7 trillion economy (37% of US

GDP)– 3rd largest economy in the world

the region

Travel Among and within its

3 Mega Regions Supports the

Region’s Economic

Vitality

the region

The I-95 Mega-regions

Compete with 40 Mega-regions

Around the World

the region

Continuing a “Business as

Usual” Approach to Transportation Will Lead to Dire

Consequences

business as usual

Many Major Highways Along

the East Coast will be

Completely Clogged in Peak

Periods

• 70% increase in VMT• Dramatic increases in

congestion levels– 84% delay increase on urban

Interstate– 49% all systems

business as usual

Cost of Goods will Increase

with the Doubling of

Truck Freight Movement along

Congested Highways

• Loss of mode share by freight rail and marine shipping

• Doubling of freight carried on trucks

business as usual

Large Growth in Travel will Lead

to Increased Greenhouse

Gas Emissions

• 34% increase in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (in spite of more stringent fuel efficiency standards)

business as usual

2005GHG

2040 GHGCurrent Trend

200%

150%

100%

50%

0

2007 EISA Café Improvements

A Better Way:A Strategic Vision for

Transportation in the Region in

2040

2040 Vision

• Significant change is needed to support continuing economic growth in a Carbon Constrained Environment

Coalition’s Strategic

Vision Builds on Results

from Nationally-

Prominent and State/Regional

Visioning Efforts

National Surface Transportation

Policy and Revenue Commission

AASHTO-Led Vision for

21st CenturyState/Local

Vision Efforts

MPO Intake Session

2040 Vision

Other Literature

A Set of Consensus

Policy Principles

Guided Development of the Vision

• Support continuing economic growth• Support sustainable environmental

and energy policies• Support sustainable land use

practices• Provide a balanced multimodal

transportation system

2040 vision

Support Continuing

Economic Growth

• Sustain and enhance regional economic vitality

• Support mega-region global competitiveness

2040 vision

Support Sustainable

Land Use Practices

• Support transit oriented development

• Support efficient distribution of goods

• Discourage unplanned sprawl

• Support travel alternatives (e.g., telecommuting and video conferencing)

2040 vision

Provide a Balanced

Multimodal Transportation

System

• Provide travel options with a multi-modal system

• Achieve seamless intermodal connectivity

• Improve transportation system performance

• Provide safe and secure travel

2040 vision

What will it take to

Achieve the Vision?

• Increased vehicle fuel efficiency• Increased use of alternative fuels• Reduced rate of VMT growth• Greater use of alternative modes• Aggressive transportation system

management– Including pricing and IntelliDriveSM/Vehicle

Infrastructure Integration (VII)• Additional highway capacity

– Especially managed lanes

achieving the vision

Vehicle Fuel Efficiency must

be Doubled:Thereby achieving the current efficiencies of

global competitors

achieving the vision

U.S.Year 2005: 25 MPGYear 2040: 50 MPG

35% Reduction in GHG

Emissions Achieved

through Use of Alternative

Fuels

• Bio-Diesel• Electricity• Ethanol

– Cellulosic biomass as source

• Compressed and Liquid Natural Gas

• Hydrogen

achieving the vision

VMT Growth Rate is Reduced

from a Projected 1.7% to 1.0%

Annually

achieving the vision

VMT in Trillions

A Multimodal Transportation System Enables Greater Use of Non-Highway

Modes

• Transit ridership is tripled in concert with transit oriented development

• Passenger rail ridership increases 8-fold

– Reduces aviation and highway congestion

• Freight rail ton miles increase 20% over trend projection

• A marine highway network reduces the number of trucks on the region’s highways

• Improved port access enhances intermodal connectivity

achieving the vision

System Capacity will be Fully

Used through Aggressive

Transportation Management

• Major unexpected delays will be reduced through aggressive incident management

• All major highways will be instrumented and managed

• Travelers will be well-informed about current conditions along with route and modal choices

• Pricing strategies will be implemented to better manage congestion and improve performance

• Dramatic improvements in safety and efficiency will result from IntelliDriveSM/VIIdeployment

achieving the vision

Additional Highway Capacity

is Needed to Improved System

Performance

• 15,000 additional interstate lane miles will be required throughout the region

– Much of which will be managed lanes, including truck lanes

• An array of highway system improvements will complement the additional capacity:

– Major reconstruction of aging infrastructure

– Bottleneck elimination

achieving the vision

A 60-80% Reduction in

2005 Greenhouse Gas Emission Levels will be

Achieved

25%

0%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2005GHG

2040GHG

w/Trend

2007 EISA Café Improvements

2020-2040 FuelEfficiency Gains

2040GHG

w/Reduction Strategies

Alternative Fuels

VMT Reduction*Aggressive Operations

Double FuelEfficiencyof Fleet

Reduction S

trategiesachieving the vision

* Modal Shift, Demand Reduction, HOV, Land Use, etc.

Economic Growth

is Supported by Improved System

Performance

• Removal of major freight highway and rail bottlenecks

• 46% reduction in delay on urban interstates

• Substantial operational and safety improvements from:

– Reduced VMT growth – Diversions to non-highway

modes– Aggressive management,

including IntelliDriveSM/VII deployment

achieving the vision

More than Doubling of

Investment in all Modes is

Needed

Current Trend VisionMode

Annual Capital Investment: I-95 Region

$8

~$0.8

~$1

$22

$32

(2005 constant $ billions)

*includes intermodal connections to ports, airports, rail terminals

$15 - $19

~$4 - $5

~$2

$47

$71

the cost

We will Transition

to a New Financing

Model

the cost

Environmental Fee(Carbon Pricing)

Congestion Fee

Base VMT Fee(to Replace Gas Tax)

Other State/Local/ Private Options

Transportation Vision 2040Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained EnvironmentContinuing Economic Growth

Sustainable Environmental and Energy Policies

Sustainable Land Use Practices

Balanced Multimodal Transportation Systems

in closing

Supporting Economic Growth in a Carbon-Constrained Environment

How to Achieve 80% Reduction in Transportation GHG Emissions by 2050: A Case Study of California

Daniel SperlingOn behalf of Christopher Yang

David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, Wayne Leighty

Institute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of California, Davis

TRB WebinarSeptember 10, 2009

To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even if

electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550 (450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use

vs. IS92a.

450

550

350 ppm

750 ppm

Bill

ion

tons

of C

O2

(glo

bal)

Humans Need to Dramatically Reduce CO2Emissions to Stabilize the Climate

Need 50-80% reduction in GHGs from “business as usual” by 2050 to stabilize the climate and avoid

catastrophic climate change.

Source: IPCC

80in50 Project Goals• Provide snapshots of what 80% reduction in transport

could look like

• Provide a simple tool (emissions calculator) that helps explore … Most important areas to target

Results and tradeoffs from different assumptions

Role of different strategies and policies in reducing GHG emissions from transport sector

All Transport Activities, California (1990)“In-State Emissions” “Overall Emissions”

(in-state plus ½ out-of-state transport)

Analytical Framework Kaya decomposition analysis

CO2 emissions =

Each transport sector (e.g. heavy duty), sub-sector (e.g. buses) andindividual technology options (e.g. fuel cell hybrid buses) arecharacterized in terms of these Kaya components

P T E CPopulation

California pop.Transport

intensity (e.g., VMT/capita)

Energy Intensity (e.g.,

MJ/mile)

Carbon Intensity (e.g. gCO2-eq/MJ)

Key Fuel AssumptionsGHG Intensity (g CO2-eq/MJ)• Gasoline 95g/MJ

• Biofuels waste (crop/forest residues, MSW): 10g/MJ

• Other biofuels (cellulose and algae): 25g/MJ

• Hydrogen from coal w/CCS 25g/MJ (reduced w/FC)

• Hydrogen from renewables 5g/MJ (reduced w/FC)

• Electricity is 90% decarbonized relative to 1990 (made from mix of renewables, natural gas, coal w/CCS, nuclear)

Key Vehicle Assumptions• HD trucks are mix of hybrids using mostly biofuels and fuel

cells using hydrogen

• Most LD vehicles operate on either electricity or hydrogen

• Battery EVs dominate in smaller vehicles

• PHEVs sales greatly expand after 2015 but fade after 2035 (as batteries improve and GHG targets get stronger)

• On-road fuel economy of vehicles in MPG (gasoline-equivalent) in 2050: Gasoline PHEV: 75 mpg-ge

H2 FCV: 82 mpg-ge

Battery EV: 117 mpg-ge

Key Travel Activity Assumptions• Population increases 35% (85% from 1990)

• VMT/capita decreases 20% 1/4 of reduction is from mode switching and rest from

reduced vehicle use

• Large per-capita increase in intercity rail (including high speed)

• In-state air travel decreases (per capita)

• HD truck miles increase (per capita)

Efficient Biofuels 80in50(reductions from business-as-usual forecast)

Electric-drive 80in50(reductions from business-as-usual forecast)

“Portfolio” 80in50 Scenario (reductions from business-as-usual forecast)

Virtually All Vehicles in 2050 Will Have Electric Drive Propulsion (BEVs, PHEVs, FCVs)

Policy Mechanisms

Conclusions• Meeting 80% reduction goal will be major challenge

Need transformation of vehicles, fuels, and transportation systems

• Not all sectors and subsectors should be reduced equally

• Light-duty vehicles tend to be more amenable to large GHG reductions than other vehicles and subsectors

• Many uncertainties affect findings, including quantity of waste biomass available for energy use, costs of future batteries and renewable hydrogen, effectiveness and cost of carbon sequestration, use of hydrogen and electricity in trucks, marine, ag/offroad, and aviation.

• Biofuels are most applicable across all transport subsectors, but are limited by resource availability and often have relatively high GHG emissions (unless made from waste materials).

• Hydrogen and electricity can be made from a wide range of resources, but limited by applicability to some transport subsectors (especially aviation, marine and off-road) and uncertain costs.

• Slowing growth in travel demand is most challenging but has large co-benefits.

For More Detail…• Christopher Yang, David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, Wayne Leighty,

“Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California,” Transportation Research D (2009). For background report see http://steps.ucdavis.edu/research/Thread_6/80in50

• David McCollum, Christopher Yang, “Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: scenario analysis and policy implications,” Energy Policy (2010)

• Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability, Oxford University Press (2009)

THANKS

Gail AchtermanChair of the Oregon Transportation Commission

Director of the Institute for Natural Resources at Oregon State University

Gail.Achterman@oregonstate.edu