trend macrolytics, llc · 8/11/2020 · brazil as of aug 11 39.6 median population age 26.8 median...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not
authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying
or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no
warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Tuesday, August 11, 2020
The global scorecard
India + 53,601 India + 871
US + 49,530 Mexico + 705
Brazil + 22,048 Brazil + 703
Colombia + 10,142 US + 523
Russia + 10,063 Colombia + 312
Philippines + 6,725 South_Africa + 213
Mexico + 5,558 Kazakhstan + 211
Peru + 5,109 Peru + 204
France + 4,854 Russia + 200
Argentina + 4,688 Iran + 189
+ 172,318 + 4,131
World + 221,174 World + 5,041
Top ten 78% Top ten 82%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
26.435 bp of population infected
As of Aug 11
New confirmed cases
by continent
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
2
The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital
FL AL CA NY NY
CA FL FL NJ FL
TX WA TX CA NJ
GA VA NY MA GA
AL MS GA TX AZ
LA MD IL FL VA
SC OH AZ IL MD
MS AR NJ PA AL
AR MN NC MI MA
TN GA LA CT OH
All states All states All states All states All states
Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
TX + 4,988
TN + 2,173
PA + 1,048
OH + 886
MN + 796
TN -925 WA -16 AR -9
NC -826 AR -12 ID -9
-38 GA -24
AL -1,261 LA -32 AZ -15
+ 533
+ 284
+ 105
+ 89
+ 1,686
+ 1,319
+ 1,202
+ 24
+ 18
+ 16
+ 74
+ 2,575
+ 31
+ 30
+ 29
+ 93
+ 66
+ 11
+ 10
+ 328
+ 7,751
+ 4,455
+ 4,155
+ 2,429
CA
TX
FL
MO
GA
Top ten
OH
All states
+ 27,547
+ 41,807
AL
IL
TN
KS + 1,092
+ 883
38.1 median population age
156.404 bp of population infected
61% 67%
5,060,880 154,947
66%
+ 426
77%
Five most improved US states
LA -2,091 TX -85 NJ -43
FL -2,074 CA
561,911 25,204
334,347
74%
The ten worst US states
+ 1,370
+ 1,654
83%
89,995
31,177
21,992
20,676
19,277
14,212
13,247
12,070
12,062
11,629
246,337
185,031 7,317
136,844 6,526
+ 70
+ 64
+ 52
+ 51
+ 48
536,961 15,878
490,817 10,359
196,699 8,408
187,523 7,846
421,336 8,741
219,025 8,490
131,961 4,444
3,068,108 103,213
Dail
y n
ew
cases a
nd d
eath
s
Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
3
Recommended reading
Children and the virus: As schools reopen, much
remains unknown about the risk to kids and the peril
they pose to others Haisten Willis, Chelsea Janes and Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post August 10, 2020
First-in-Human Trial of a SARS CoV 2 Recombinant
Spike Protein Nanoparticle Vaccine Cheryl Keech et al.
medRvx August 6, 2020
KDHE doctored a COVID case chart to justify mask
mandates Dave Trabert
The Sentinel August 7, 2020
Lockdown Lunacy 3.0: It's over J. B. Handley
J. B. Handley Blog July 28, 2020
Pelosi, Mnuchin open door to narrower COVID-19 aid
through 2020 Susan Heavey and Jeff Mason
Reuters
August 9, 2020
20% Of Harvard’s First-Year Class Has Deferred Brandon Busteed
Forbes August 7, 2020
NYC Councilman Paul Vallone credits
Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 recovery Jon Levine
New York Post
August 8, 2020
Meme of day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Cartoons"
4
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
5
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
6
Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: number of days it takes to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
7
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
8
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
9
Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations
10
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas169.27 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Aug 11
38.1 median population age
216.59 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
152.58 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
11
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona257.63 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
As of Aug 11
42.2 median population age
142.21 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
250.01 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
12
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Aug 11
28.8 median population age
0.64 bp of population infected
37.4 median population age
32.24 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
13
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Aug 11
41.2 median population age
30.26 bp of population infected
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
3.90 bp of population infected
26.17 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
14
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia7.73 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of Aug 11
46.75 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
31.70 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
15
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Aug 11
42.2 median population age
42.86 bp of population infected
44.9 median population age
45.5 median population age
41.56 bp of population infected
68.81 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
16
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
As of Aug 11
41.8 median population age
2.83 bp of population infected
96.94 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
40.9 median population age
81.97 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
17
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
As of Aug 11
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
16.92 bp of population infected
6.21 bp of population infected
33.5 median population age
145.94 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
18
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)7.67 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
As of Aug 11
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
95.93 bp of population infected
37.57 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations