Trends in Employment & Competencies in New England

Ross Gittell

James R. Carter Professor

University of New Hampshire

Main Themes

• (1) New England’s Economy & Higher Education System– the innovation, productivity and income linkages and

strengths ..strongly evident in the late 1990s• (2) Human Capital & Higher Education in the region

– need to understand key dimensions of issues, challenges and problems

– often attempt to make complex problems simple ..this is not appropriate on human capital issues and higher education

(3) Declining Relevance of Traditional Definitions and Categories

• Occupational & Industry categories and definitions and categories are increasingly less relevant and useful in human capital development and higher education– people change occupations and careers multiple

times during their lifetime– there are no longer “traditional”

industries ..industries are constantly changing – have to move away from thinking of educating

students for particular industries or occupations

(4) “Non-Traditional” Students • There are no longer many Traditional

Students– high school graduates often delay post-secondary

matriculation – students work and go to school at the same time– students have significant family responsibilities– for many students their most significant education

will take place outside a classroom • at a distance using technology

• at an internship

• on a team project

• studying abroad

(5) Keys for Students and Graduates

• Portfolio of competencies– need for students to develop range of capabilities– and add to portfolio over time

• “Execution” Skills– problem solve– work with others– deliver a product or service that meets a specific

(but ever changing) societal or market need• Attitude and capability to change and continuously

learn

Students/Graduates ...in search of an occupation, industry and careers

• Students/Graduates in the 21st Century in many respects will have to create and then re-create their own occupations, industries and careers

• Higher education’s challenge is to help give students the capacity and competencies to do this effectively

The Data on Employment and Higher

Education in New England

• Ending with:– What should be in the portfolio of

competencies of students/graduates– Strategic areas for higher education in the

region in human capital development

In the last half of the last decade the region’s economy was able to buck longer term relative decline and lagging population and labor force

growth…but what about the future??

New England Compared to US Growth: Ave Annual Growth, 1995-2000

5.8

2.1

0.7

4.1

2.4

1.3

01234567

Gross Product Employment Labor Force

New England US

Region made good use of limited labor… 4 of 6 NE states

rank in top 8 in productivity increases

Pct Chg in GSP Per Capita: 1994-1998

14.6 13.89.8

22.1

14.8

5.4

10.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

CT MA ME NH RI VT US

Summary: New England Strengths and Weaknesses

New England State Rankings on Economic Measures TOP=50Rank is from top (#50) to low (#1) among the 50 US states New England CT MAINE MASS NH RI VT Average w/o ME-VTGSP Per Capita Pct Change (79-98) 48 39 47 49 44 38 44 47Personal Income Pct Change (79-98) 50 34 49 48 38 44 44 46Pct of Adults Graduate Degree 49 24 50 42 40 43 41 45Scientist & Engineer in workforce % 45 28 47 28 44 46 40 41Median Family Income 50 34 49 48 38 44 44 46Knowledge Job Percentage 45 34 48 43 35 14 37 43Pct of Population with a BA+ 49 26 48 34 32 27 36 41High Tech Workers Per 1,000 39 16 49 48 22 44 36 40Per Capita Personal Income (1999) 35 14 48 49 23 42 35 39PhD Scientist & Engineer % 46 9 50 18 34 43 33 37Pct of Pop. with some college (2000) 4 5 10 29 6 13 11 12Total Population Growth (90-2000) 6 9 2 11 7 1 6 7Pop. Growth 20-34 Cohort (90-2000) 1 2 6 3 5 4 4 4

High Technology employment concentration above US average in 4 of 6 states

Percent of Employment

High-Tech Top=50

2001 Rank

CT 5.57 35

Maine 2.96 16

Mass 8.78 49

NH 8.64 48

RI 3.67 22

VT 6.45 44

NE (pop weighted) 6.97 40

US Ave 5.08

NE/US 137.2%

# Above 4

Knowledge Jobs (aggregate measure, PPI, 2002) includes information technology jobs in non-IT

fields

Knowledge JobsAggregate Measure PPI

2002% Rank 02Connecticut 12.69 45Maine 10.53 34Massachusetts 14.59 48New Hampshire 12.48 43Rhode Island 11.06 35Vermont 8.83 14New England Ave. 13.06 43US 10NE/US 130.6%# of NE states above US 5Highest Colorado

Scientists and Engineers in the Workforce in New England

Scientist & Engineer% in workforce

2002% Rank 02Connecticut 0.65 45Maine 0.44 28Massachusetts 0.92 47New Hampshire 0.43 28Rhode Island 0.64 44Vermont 0.7 46New England Ave. 0.74 43US 0.49NE/US 150.3%# of NE states above US 4Highest New Mexico

PHD Scientist and Engineering percentages are even higher...

Percent of Workforce with a recent PhD in Science or Engineering

1999 RankConnecticut 0.19 46Maine 0.09 9Massachusetts 0.34 50New Hampshire 0.10 18Rhode Island 0.14 34Vermont 0.18 43New England Ave. 0.24 41US Ave 0.14NE/US 169.4%# NE States above US ave. 3

Education Advantages translate into high output per worker across industries in region

Finance Workers % with College Degree

2001% Rank 01Connecticut 50.6 40Maine 40.3 17Massachusetts 57 45New Hampshire 55 44Rhode Island 46.9 33Vermont 46.1 29New England Ave. 52.54 40

New England has not lost its Graduate Education Advantage

New England Share NE/US 1998 Percent change in per capita ratiosDegree Type US Degrees 1998 Degree per capita ratio 66-98 93-98Associates 4.91% 0.98 -28.3% -13.5%Bachelors 6.74% 1.35 0.8% -0.5%Masters 8.80% 1.75 10.7% 4.2%Professional Totals 7.20% 1.4 15.6% 10.4%Doctorate 8.20% 1.62 -0.1% 3.9%Population share 4.98%

Graduate Degree Advantages across different fields

New England's Share of Science and Engineering Doctorates Conferred by U.S. Institutions by Field:

1995, 1997 and 2000

8.3

10.4

4.5

10.5

7.9

8.2

7.8

7.7

8.2

10.7

5.6

9.8

9.1

8.8

6.1

7.0

8.3

10.8

4.5

11.7

8.7

8.2

7.7

7.8

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

All Fields

Social Sciences

Psychology

Physical Sciences

Math & ComputerSciences

Life Sciences

EnvironmentalSciences

Engineering

2000

1997

1995

Graduate education ties to the economy

• Graduate degree attainment is the most strongly statistically correlated to per capita income of all the higher education degrees.

• Using the most current data for the 50 US states, the correlation statistic of per capita personal income with percent of adults with a Graduate degree is .78

• The correlation of income to 4-year College degree (.54) attainment is also high but not as high as graduate degree

• In contrast, the correlation statistic for “some college” with per capita personal income is negative (-.46).

Current situation…the 2001 employment picture for graduates

• Relatively strong fields included:

– technology jobs in health care (from technician to software engineer)

– computer maintenance and services

– wireless technology

– electrical, mechanical, and computer engineering

• A complicated technology employment outlook ... On one hand, it is bleak, yet the numbers indicate there are job opportunities

The New England Economic Outlook (NEEP/economy.com)

Ave. Annual Growth 2001-2006GSP 2.7Total Employment 0.9Services 1.8 Business Services 0.9 Health Services 2.6Durable Goods Manufacturing -0.9 Chemicals Manuf. 1Unemployment Ave 4.0Net Migration 37,000

What about the future...BLS Projections

• Information on 2000 and projected 2010 occupational employment developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Part of Occupational Employment Projections Program

• Data derived from 2000-10 National Employment Matrix

• The information presented part of 2002-2003 edition of Occupational Projections and Training Data.

• Data and projections are available on the BLS website: http://data.bls.gov/oep/noeted/empoptd.jsp

Occupations with Largest Increases Over Next Decade in Employment for US workers

with Bachelors+

2000 Median annualself- earnings

employed (Dollars)Percent

Number Due to Due to Part-time Unemployed(000's) growth growth workers workers

and total and net quartile* quartile*replacement replacement

needs needs

General and operations managers 2,398 2,761 363 15.2 3.9 - 1 77 VL VL 61,160Postsecondary teachers 1,344 1,659 315 23.5 2.4 - 1 68 VH L 46,330Elementary teachers, excep spec. ed. 1,532 1,734 202 13.2 0 - 1 55 L VL 39,700Secondary teachers, excep. spec. ed. 1,004 1,190 187 18.6 0 - 1 49 L VL 40,870Computer software engineers, 380 760 380 100 7.5 - 1 41 VL VL 67,670All other business operations 827 960 133 16.1 0 - 1 34 L L 47,120Accountants and auditors 976 1,157 181 18.5 12.2 - 1 33 L VL 43,500Computer software engineers, systems 317 601 284 89.7 6.5 - 1 31 VL VL 69,530Computer systems analysts 431 689 258 59.7 10.3 - 1 30 VL VL 59,330Chief executives 547 641 94 17.2 0 - 1 27 L VL 113,810

in totalemployment

job openings(000's)

Occupation

Totalemployment

(000's)

2000-2010change

Percent

2000 2010 Percent

2000-2010average annual

Occupations with largest increases in employment for workers with Masters

Number(000's)

Educ., voc., & school counselors 205 257 52 25.3Physical therapists 132 176 44 33.3Speech- language pathologists 88 122 34 39.2Psychologists 182 214 33 18.1Mental health and substance abuse 83 116 33 39.1Rehabilitation counselors 110 136 26 23.6Substance abuse and behavioral 61 82 21 35Instructional coordinators 81 101 20 25Mental health counselors 67 82 15 21.7Librarians 149 160 10 7

in totalemployment

Occupation

Totalemployment

(000's)

2000-2010change

2000 2010 Percent

Occupations with Largest Increases in Employment for workers with Doctorates

Number(000's)

Postsecondary teachers 1,344 1,659 315 23.5Biological scientists 73 88 15 21Medical scientists 37 47 10 26.5Computer and information scientists, 28 39 11 40.3Astronomers and physicists 10 11 1 10.5

2000 2010 PercentOccupation

Totalemployment

(000's)

2000-2010changein total

employment

Bio-Tech concentrations only in MA and CT (47 states in US have focused on Bio-Tech)

Percent EmploymentBio-Tech

2000 RankCT 1.95 48Maine 0.71 26Mass 1.81 47NH 0.79 28RI 0.52 13VT 0.21 3NE 1.49 39US Ave 1.10NE/US 135.2%# Above 2

Thinking beyond BioTech: Industries in which

technology can be used to solve problems • “Big” Problems

– National Defense and Homeland Security

– Education

– Health Care

– Energy (conservation, efficiency and alternative sources)

– At Intersection of Economy-Environment & Public Health

• Transportation (e.g., the Segway)

• Air Quality (e.g., AIRMAP project at UNH)

• “Small” Problems

– Business applications

– Government (public policies, “e-Government”)

– Non-profits (management and service delivery)

The Defense Industry... evidence of a coming increase in defense spending & employment

• Congress has passed appropriations bills for tens of billions of dollars in new defense spending

• Investment analysts project that the defense budget will grow a staggering $200 billion, to $500 billion by 2005

• Pentagon has asked private companies and universities to propose a broad array of technologies that can help America “sniff out terrorists”

Defense & Homeland Security Related Opportunities

• In the short term... the main increase will be for established weapons systems… e.g., missiles & helicopters.. – will add jobs in weapons production but will not

require hiring of hoards of designers and engineers• Longer term, there will be need for “smarter” military

systems designed for special operations and the war against terrorism

• There will be increased need for scientists and engineers developing and implementing the new systems and their commercial “spin-offs”

Beyond Defense & Homeland Security: NSF Information Technology Research program

• The next generation Internet system ...resistant to failure and attack

• Software systems that can be used in a wide range of applications e.g., environmental sciences, health care.

• Optical computer (OptIPuter) focusing on problems in the earth sciences and neurosciences– Using computers to monitor vast radar maps and create

public warning systems for earthquakes

– In neurosciences ...mapping the human brain at a level of resolution well beyond the limits of today's technology

Issues & Challenges

• Demographics– Decline in Entry Level Workforce– Aging Workforce

• Educational Advantages at Risk– Declining advantage in some key fields tied to

the regional economy

The decline in 25-44 more pronounced in New England than in other regions

Population Growth: Average Annual Forecasted 2000-05

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

NewEngland

MiddleAtlantic

Mountain Pacific US

economy.com., 2001

Ave

An

nu

al G

row

th

Total Aged 25-44 Aged 45-64

Science and Engineering Advantages at Risk

Percent of Bachelor's Degrees Granted in Science & Engineering Top=50

1998 RankConnecticut 13.4 2Maine 19.2 41Massachusetts 17.5 21New Hampshire 18.2 31Rhode Island 15.1 6Vermont 17.6 23New England Ave. 16.6 18US Ave 17.6NE/US 94.1%# NE States above US ave. 2

Engineering Masters Degrees

Engineering Masters Degrees

NE/US Ratio per capita 1966 1980 1993 1998 66-98 93-98

New England Public 0.67 0.58 0.65 0.54 -18.9% -16.9%

New England Private 3.58 3.56 3.50 3.64 1.6% 3.7%

New England Total 1.96 1.74 1.58 1.55 -20.6% -1.6%

Beyond efforts in particular fields... Where to focus efforts

• Core competencies

• “Non-Traditional” students

• Graduate Education

What students should be doing from a business perspective...

• “What's most important is to learn to think well and acquire basic skills and tools. I'd make sure today to take computer classes, and get a good foundation in accounting and finance as well as marketing. And I'd supplement the formal education with as much hands-on work on projects as I could get myself into.”

Quotes from Businesses

• “In almost all cases a strong background in computer applications usage would be important. These are today's tools for analysis and communications. Then, the degree of computer industry background would vary: for finance positions it would be less necessary, for technical positions, it's obviously essential. For sales, it would be very helpful.”

This is consistent with the current employment picture for New England graduates...

• In New England.. companies such as Gillette and GE Capital have started IT leadership development programs

• Financial and insurance industries (Fidelity and Liberty Mutual) have need for entry level workers with business training and information technology skills

• Companies are increasingly hiring graduates with IT skills and grooming them for management slots.

• For example in 2001, Mount Holyoke's 500 computer science grads had no trouble finding jobs, said school spokesman David LaChance. "Some received a few job offers. Many are working for Morgan Stanley, IBM, Amazon.com, Raytheon, and Microsoft."

Educated Workforce and Knowledge Workers

• Technology can not and will not solve problems without educated workforce

• Need smart, technically competent, committed and caring people to make it happen

Competencies & “Skills” Needed of Graduates

• Analytical with problem solving orientation

• Technological ..”hands on” ability to use technology to solve problems

• Communications – Written

– Verbal

– Technology-based

• Integrative.. recognize and act on the inter-relationships among things (e.g., technology and its application, the economy-environment-public health, work & family)

• Values-based.. recognize and act on “larger” social responsibility at work and beyond

“How to get there...

• Balance of liberal and technological education (for all)• Mix of theory, applied and practical experiences in college

– liberal arts curriculum, emphasis on inter-disciplinary work

– project work in and out of class

– internships (tied to course work and career objectives)

– faculty-business “exchanges” .. business people in classroom..faculty externships

• Global perspective.. exposure and awareness of other nations and cultures and values– foreign languages

– study of other cultures and countries

– study abroad

Incumbent Worker/Non-Traditional Students

• Ongoing (constant)-education of incumbent workers at all levels is important– increasing share of older workers in nation and

even more so in the region– rapid rate of industry and occupational changes– high percentage of incumbent workers with and

w/o college degrees expect to go back for graduate degrees

Non-Traditional Students..NH as an example of the opportunity and challenge

• In NH one-quarter of all adults report their highest level of education as “some college” (19% of those 25+)

• 32% in NH with “some college” expect to obtain a college degree in next five years (or 9% of all adults in NH)

• Nearly one-half (45%) of current college students in NH are non-traditional– 3/4ths of PT students are non-traditional

– 1/5th of FT students are non-traditional

• 20% of 4-yr college graduates in the state expect to pursue a graduate degree in the next 5 years

• 10% of 4-yr college graduates and 14% of post-graduate degree holders expect to get some non-degree training in next 5 years…needs/opportunities for advanced certification programs

Maintaining the Graduate Education Advantage

• Expanding Graduate education in states other than Massachusetts

• Enhancing the role of public institutions in the region in Graduate education

• Ensuring a continued strong pipeline of Graduate students into the region (with regional recruitment efforts and scholarship programs)

• Emphasis on quality of programs, particularly in areas tied to the economy (e.g., industries of the future)

• Engaging industry in the region more broadly and deeply in Graduate education.

The challenge….

• Need to understand, continuously track, and respond to key human capital opportunities and challenges

• Like our students and graduates ..faculty and higher education institutions and systems have to continuously engage in creation and re-creation