trends shaping education 2016

TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2016

2

Trends Shaping Education

• Intention and purpose

– Inform strategic thinking

– Stimulate reflection about the future of education

─ NOT a statistical compendium nor a prescription for policy

3

Trends Shaping Education 2016

• Five thematic chapters– Globalisation– The future of the nation state– Are cities the new countries?– Family matters– A brave new world

• To be included, data needs to be:– Robust– Internationally comparable– Long term trend

Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (World Bank data)

19601962

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20120

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Low income Middle income World OECD members

Gap between richer and poorer regions widensGDP per capita by national income level and OECD member countries, and world, 1960-2013

Globalisation

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4% 4% 4% 4%5%

5%

6%

7%

8%

8%

9%

Middle income Low income World OECD members

Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (World Bank data)

Increasing immigration across the OECDImmigrants as a share of national population, 1960-2010

Globalisation

Migration

Global integratio

n

Trade patterns

Environment

Harmonisation of values

Affluence and

inequality

Democracy and dual

nationalities

GLOBALISATION

Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data)

19701971

19721973

19741975

19761977

19781979

19801981

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

201255

60

65

70

75

80

85

90 Men effective retirement age Women effective retirement agePension men Pension womenLife expectancy from 65 males Life expectancy from 65 females

Year

s Old

Longer life, longer retirementLongevity, effective retirement age, and legal age at which one can become a pensioner, OECD country average, 1970-2012

Nation state

8

Nation state


Changing causes of deathThe top causes of death (left axis) and the fastest growing causes of death (right axis) in OECD countries, 1960-2012

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Circulatory Cancer RespiratoryExternal Diabetes DementiaAlzheimer's

Top

4 pe

r 10

0,00

0

Top

new

per

100

,000

Right axis :

Left axis:

9

Taxes

Dementia

National Identities

Counter terroris

m

The knowledg

e economy

Greater role of women

National Security

Entrepreneurs

Government Spending

Health

Pension System

Ageing

Patents

Obesity

Labour Market

THE NATIO

N STATE

10

Cities


Productivity: from the City of Love to the Big ApplePercent of national GDP growth contributed by the metropolitan areas 2000-10.

Slovak Republic (1)Netherlands (5)

Spain (8)Poland (8)Finland (1)

Slovenia (1)Portugal (2)

Czech Republic (3)Sweden (3)

OECD23 (221)Austria (3)Canada (9)

United States (70)Belgium (4)Ireland (1)

Chile (3)Denmark (1)Mexico (33)

Estonia (1)Korea (10)

Hungary (1)France (15)Japan (36)Greece (2)

0 15 30 45 60 75 90

Largest contributor All metropolitan areasCountry ( No. of cities)

11

Cities

Sources: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Meddin, R (2015), The Bike-sharing World Map and Metrobits (2015), World Metro Database.)

The urban commuteAll metro and bike share systems in OECD and BRIICS countries

18631896

19001902

19051912

19241927

19351954

19571964

19671969

19711974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20130

20

40

60

80

100

120

MetroOECD BRICS

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

200

400

600

Bike Share

Costs

House prices

Benefits

Congestion

Contagion

Pollution

Crime

Citizen Engagement

Productivity

Wages

Culture

Innovation

Are cities the new countries?

Families

Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Eurostat data)

Marriage age is risingMean age at first marriage for men and women, 1990, 2000, and 2013.

13

Turk

ey

Polan

d

Slova

kia

Portu

gal

Czech

Rep

ublic

Eston

ia

Belgium

Hunga

ry

Slove

nia

Switz

erlan

d

OECD(24)

Luxe

mbour

g

Finlan

d

Greec

e

Fran

ce

Nether

lands

German

y

Austr

ia

Irelan

dIta

ly

Norway

Denmar

kSp

ain

Icelan

d

Swed

en20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36 1990 2000 2013 1990 2000 2013

Age

Women Men

14

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Num

ber o

f cou

ntrie

s

Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Pew Research data)

FamiliesMarriage for allNumber of OECD countries in which same-sex marriage is legal, 2000-2015

15

Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD Household debt indicator.)

FamiliesHousehold debt increasingTotal household debt as a percent of net disposable income, 2000 and 2012

Mexico

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Polan

d

Slove

nia

Hunga

ry

Czech

Rep

ublic

Austr

iaIta

ly

German

y

Belgium

Fran

ce

United

State

s

Finlan

dJap

anSp

ain

United

King

dom

Portu

gal

Canad

a

Swed

en

Austr

alia

Switz

erlan

d

Irelan

d

Nether

lands

Denmar

k0

100

200

300

2000 2012

% o

f ne

t di

spos

able

inco

me

16

Government Policy

Changing family values

Ageing

Child Well-being

Marriage and

divorce

HealthHousehold

budgets

Family Matters

17

Technology


Internet is an integral part of our livesAverage number of Internet users, daily users and mobile users, 2006 and 2013.

Icelan

d

Swed

en

Nether

lands

Finlan

d

United

King

dom

Korea

Austr

alia

German

y

Fran

ce

Eston

ia

Irelan

d

United

State

sIsr

ael

Hunga

ryChil

e

Portu

gal

Italy

Mexico

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2006 Of which daily users (2013) Mobile users (2013)

% o

f po

pula

tion

18

Technology


Online multi-tasking: more efficient or more distracted?Average number of activities being performed online at the same time per Internet user, 2009 and 2013.

Norway

Icelan

d

Swed

en

Netherl

ands

Finlan

d

Luxembourg

France

Slove

nia

Austria

Estonia

Czech Rep

ublic

Belgium

Irelan

d

Slova

k Rep

ublic

Hungary

Spain

Portuga

l

Greece Ita

ly

Poland

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2009 2013

Num

ber o

f acti

vitie

s

19

New technologie

s Social networksDigital

divide

Information as power

Entrepreneurs

Cyberbullying

Cyber securit

y

Biotechnology

Privacy

R&DA

BRAVE NEW

WORLD

20

Thank you!

Ageing PopulationsGlobal Economic Integration

International inequality

Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage

Changing balance of global power

More satisfied with life?

Lower voter turnout

Skills mismatch

Women in the labour market and childbirth

More diverse families, generally smaller and with

older parents

Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet

A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies

Migration and mobility

Urban lifeObesity epidemic