NATIONAL SCHOOL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONDepartment of International Relations and European Integration

Masters Degree Program: Security and DiplomacyTheory of International Relations- World Politics -

Professor Vasile Secre, Ph.D.SNSPABucharest, 2010

IV. Power: Power Structure, Power Politics, Power Cycles

Realism (Political Realism): a school of thought that explains International Relations (both conflictual & cooperative) in terms of powerNeorealism: the role and consequences of the international power structureA long tradition:Sun Tzu (the warring states period): advised the rulers of state how to use power in order to advance their interests & protect their survivalThucydides: the first systematic study of war ( the Peloponesian War, 431 - 404 B.C.)Niccolo Machiavelli (about 1500): leadership and the logic of power Thomas Hobbes (17th century): the state of nature or the state of war in International Relations1. How to explain or understand the role of power: the realist perspective on IR and power

Karl von Clausewitz (19th century): war is a continuation of politics by other means Edward Hallet Carr (20th century): the realist critique of the natural harmony of national interests (The Twenty-Years Crisis, 1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations, 1939) Hans Morgenthau (after the World War II): international politics is governed by objective laws based on national interest defined as power. Other authors: Kenneth Waltz, Raymond Aron, Martin Wight, Hedley Bull, Henry Kissinger & Zbigniew BrzezinskiPlease remember the realist assumptions on how International Relations work:the state-centric assumption: states are the most important actors and the distribution of power in the international system is essential. the unitary rational-actor assumption: rational pursuit of self-interest the anarchy assumption: they act in a system of sovereign states, lacking central government

Defining power: the ability to influence the behavior of others: to get another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or not to do what it would have done) (Robert A. Dahl) oractors are powerful to the extent that they affect others more than others affect them (Kenneth Waltz), orPower is the capability to prevail in conflicts, orPower is the capability to control events (influence probabilities)All these dimensions should be treated togetherThese definitions treat power as influence. Power is not influence in itself, but the capability or potential to influence others. This potential is based on specific (tangible or intangible) characteristics or possessions of states: size, territory and population, level of economic development (GDP); industrial development; military expeditures and armed forces etc. This is power as capability. Capability = the differential possession of some characteristics or attributes or resources. Capabilities are easier to measure. GDP is a useful estimator of material capabilities.The use of geography as an element of power = a component of geopolitics2. POWER: the central concept in International Relations; surprisingly difficult to define or measure

Power also depends on intangible elements: national will, diplomatic skill; popular support, domestic mobilization, often through religion, ideology or nationalism. International influence is gained by promoting its own values, by being the one to set agenda, to form rules of behavior, to change images (the way others see the world or even their own national interests) = soft power (Joseph S. Nye, Jr.) As a conclusion: Power is a mix of many ingredients: population, territory, geography, natural resources, economic development and industrial capacity, administrative capacity, scientific & technical/logical base, moral legitimacy, military force, political culture, education, popular support of government etc.Power resources = elements that an actor can draw on over the long term to develop particular capabilities, plans and actions. Power capabilities = allow actors to exercise influence in the short term (e.g.. military forces; military-industrial capacity; the quality of states bureaucracy etc.)

Power is a relation, existing in a system of interaction, involving two or more parties, each trying to influence the other more than it is itself influenced = the exercise of power = power politics Relative power = the ratio of the power that two states can bring to bear against each other Power strategies = plans actors use to develop & deploy power capabilities to achieve goals (choosing the kinds of capabilities to develop; or to use in situations etc.) coherent strategies can help a state to make the most of its powerPower distribution (structure) = the most important characteristic of an international system the asymmetric distribution of power among states in the world or in one region; most often it refers to the great-power system The structure of power a pyramid or hierarchy of power in the international system Conclusion: The international distribution of power = the system structure patterns of international behavior 3. Power as a relation / interaction

The international distribution of power can be described in terms of polarity (the member of independent power centers): a multipolar system (5 or 6 centers of power, not grouped into alliances); a bipolar system (2 powers or great rival alliances); a unipolar system (hegemony)The power status: Great Powers, Middle Powers, Regional PowersThe Balance of Power: the most reliable brake on the power of one state is the power of other states; = balancing the power of another state or group of states in order to maintain stability (recurring wars to adjust power relations) alliances play a key roleIn the Post-Cold War era of US dominance, balance of power theory would predict closer relations among Russia, China, France and Germany (?)Hegemony: the holding by one state (the hegemon) of a preponderance of power in the International Relations system; Great Britain in the 19th century and the US after the World War II and now 4. Power and polarity

In terms of time, the modern world system has existed for 500 years, first emerging when certain European states developed a capacity for global options The global political system = institutions & arrangements for the management of global problems & relations and a hegemonic structure entities that dominate the system for a generation or more and whose influence pervades an entire century = world powers the history of world politics = a succession of world powers; each period associated with a world power = one cycle a series of long cycles of about one hundred years.The global political system has displayed a recurring or cyclical pattern: since 1494: 5 full systemic cycles the transition into the 6th Transition: global war or hegemonic war = long lasting, averaging 25 years in length; a war that changes the international system; a mechanism of selection; a war fought over succession to world leadership, when a rising power is surpassing the most powerful state a new hegemonic structure (filling the essential global needs - public goods - for global governance, order, security, stability, innovation, trade) (Organski, Modelski, Gilpin, etc.)

5. Power transition theory: world powers & long cycles

NB: Since 1494 there have been 5 full systemic cycles and the global system is now in a transition phase into the 6th. or the first of a new international systemLONG CYCLES (Systemic)LONG CYCLEWORLD POWERGLOBAL WARI 1494 1579 Portugal Italian & Indian Ocean Wars (1494 - 1516)II 1580 - 1689 Netherlands Spanish Wars (1580 - 1689)III 1689 - 1792 Britain I Wars of Louis XIV (1688-1713)IV 1792 - 1914 Britain II Wars of Napoleon (1792 - 1815)V 1914 - 1989/91 USA I World Wars I & II

VI 1989/91 - USA II?