trinidad nitrogen supplier to the u.s. - firt · trinidad nitrogen supplier to the u.s. 2006...

29
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK Tel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973 www.crugroup.com www.britishsulphur.com LONDON | RALEIGH | WASHINGTON | SINGAPORE | BEIJING Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri

Upload: truongtram

Post on 12-Apr-2018

220 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UKTel +44 20 7903 2132 Fax +44 20 7833 4973

www.crugroup.comwww.britishsulphur.com

LONDON | RALEIGH | WASHINGTON | SINGAPORE | BEIJING

TrinidadNitrogen Supplier to the U.S.

2006Fertilizer Outlook &

Technology Conference

Ken Nyiri

Page 2: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Page 3: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Government: Democratic State(British Commonwealth)

Area: 5,130 sq. km(1.5 times the size of Rhode Island)

Education: English speaking

Population: 1.3 million

Ethnic Profile: 40% African descent40% East Indian20% Mixed or Other

Climate: Tropical (Just south of the Hurricane Belt)

Political Risk: Low

Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Page 4: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Energy based economy - The petroleum sector isabout one-forth of GDP

Large gas reserves – Competitive

Forty-five years of successful natural gas basedinvestment – ammonia, methanol, urea, iron andsteel

World’s Largest ammonia exporter since 1999

GDP per capita 2003 – US$ 7,838

Manufacturing, Distribution, Construction andFinance contribute 5%, 15%, 10% and 13%respectively to the country’s overall GDP

Trinidad and Tobago Economy

Page 5: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Point Lisas

Page 6: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

The Point Lisas Industrial Estate

10 world scale ammonia plants

7 world scale methanol plants

1 world scale urea plant

1 LPG plant

3 DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) plants

1 steel mill

7 berths for export of bulk petrochemicals & metals

1 major electricity generation facility

1 desalination plants (one of the largest in the world)

Page 7: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Koch/Terra

Yara (Hydro)

CNC I

CNC II

PCS Nitrogen

Yara (Tringen)

Clico(Proposed)

Page 8: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

PCS Ammonia/Urea

Page 9: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

CNC II 2000 Ammonia(Nitrogen 2000)

Page 10: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Methanol HoldingsNearing Completion

Page 11: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

10 Point Lisas Ammonia PlantsPCS Nitrogen Point Lisas 1981 520,000PCS Nitrogen Point Lisas 1981 520,000PCS Nitrogen Point Lisas 1996 402,000PCS Nitrogen Point Lisas 1998 610,000Total PCS Nitrogen 2,052,000

Tringen 1 Point Lisas 1977 465,000Tringen 2 Point Lisas 1988 550,000Yara Point Lisas 1966 310,000Total Yara 1,325,000

Pt. Lisas Nitrogen Point Lisas 1998 610,000CNC Point Lisas 2003 610,000Nitrogen 2000 Point Lisas 2004 610,000Total Koch/Terra 1,830,000

Total Point Lisas 5,207,000

Page 12: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Planned Ammonia Plants

Existing Point Lisas 5,207,000

CLICO Point Lisas 2008 610,000TEIL Point Lisas 2009 1,000,000

Page 13: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

La Brea

Point Lisas

Page 14: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Planned Ammonia Plants

Existing Point Lisas 5,207,000

CLICO Point Lisas 2008 610,000TEIL Point Lisas 2009 1,000,000La Brea Nitrogen La Brea 2009 660,000Coffeyville Res La Brea 2009 660,000ANSA McAl La Brea 2009 660,000

Total Planned 3,590,000 *

* At least half of the nitrogen will be converted on-siteinto urea or UAN

Page 15: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Why Trinidad?

Low Political Risk & Positive Business Climate

Friendly & Stable Government

Experienced Workforce/Service Industry

Relatively Low Cost Gas

Page 16: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

2005 Global Gas Prices ($/MMBtu)

West Europe$6.00

Russia$1.10

MiddleEast$0.75

NorthAmerica$9.00

Venezuela$0.75

Indonesia$2.00

Australia $1.00

Trinidad$1.25

India$3.50 China

$3.50

Page 17: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

2005 Global Cash Cost of AmmoniaProduction ($/tonne)

West Europe$250/t Russia

$75/t

MiddleEast $65/t

NorthAmerica

$360/t

Venezuela$65/t

Indonesia$105/t

Australia $70/t

Trinidad$80/t

India$160/t

China$160/t

Page 18: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Why Trinidad?

Low Political Risk & Positive Business Climate

Friendly & Stable Government

Experienced Workforce/Service Industry

Relatively Low Cost Gas

Proximity to Major Markets

Major Supplier of U.S. Ammonia

Opportunity for Urea & UAN exports to U.S.

Potential Sales into Latin America

Page 19: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Distance to Major U.S. PortsAmmonia

Distance in Nautical miles (Days)Departure Tampa NOLA Freeport

Point Lisas 1,735 (6) 2,065 (7) 2,217 (8)Ventspiles (Baltic Sea) 5,143 (18) 5,472 (19) 5,653 (20)Odessa (Black Sea) 6,382 (22) 6,712 (23) 6,893 (24)

Urea/UANDeparture Wilmington NOLA HoustonPoint Lisas 1,697 (6) 2,065 (7) 2,254 (8)San Jose 3,351 (12) 2,385 (8) 2,793 (10)Arab Gulf 8,580 (30) 9,602 (33) 9,800 (34)Constantza 5,544 (19) 6,566 (23) 6,764 (24)

Page 20: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Dedicated Ammonia Vessels

CARLI BAY KOCH NITROGENJESPER MAERSK KOCH NITROGENTOURAINE KOCH NITROGENEUPEN KOCH NITROGEN

ELVERSELE PCS NITROGEN TRINIDADJAKOB MAERSK PCS NITROGEN TRINIDAD

MAROLA TRINIDAD NITGROGEN CO. LTD.SOLARO TRINIDAD NITGROGEN CO. LTD

Page 21: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

World Ammonia Importers(17.7 million metric tons of ammonia)

U.S.41%

IndiaSouth Korea

Other Europe

L. AmericaAfrica

Middle East

Other Asia

France

Page 22: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

World Ammonia Importers(17.7 million metric tons of ammonia)

U.S.41%

IndiaSouth Korea

Other Europe

L. AmericaAfrica

Middle East

Other Asia

France

World Ammonia Exporters(17.7 million metric tons of ammonia)

All Others

L AmericaU.S.

Europe

Trinidad24%

Russia18%

UkraineCanada

Middle East

Indonesia

Page 23: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

1.4

4.4

1.3

0.1

U.S. imported 7.2 million metric tons Ammonia in 2004

Ammonia Imports into the U.S.

Page 24: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

3.9

0.3

0.1

Ammonia Exports from Trinidad

Trinidad exported 4.3 million metric tons Ammonia in 2004

Page 25: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(Mill

ion

so

fTo

nne

sof

Am

mo

nia

)Ammonia Exports from Trinidad

Page 26: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

U.S. Nitrogen Production & Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

33% 57%37%33% 44%

Page 27: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad Issues?

Limited Gas Availability

LNG Exports vs. Domestic Conversion

Domestic Conversion Creates Jobs

Petrochemical vs. Other Industrial Uses

Ammonia & Methanol

Steel & Aluminum

Capital Costs

Ammonia – 2,000 tpd - $400 million

Half Converted to Urea or UAN - $200 million

Page 28: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad Ammonia - NOLA Barge660,000 tpy NH3

$400 million Capital CostAssuming gas @ $1.25 mmbtu

Cash Production Costs $ 75 metric ton

Shipping to NOLA $ 25

Terminal Charge $ 15

Total Cash Delivered $115

Debt Service $ 85

Delivered Full Cost $200 metric ton$181 short ton

Page 29: Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. - FIRT · Trinidad Nitrogen Supplier to the U.S. 2006 Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Ken Nyiri. Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad Conclusions

Ammonia, Urea & UAN plants will be built

Expect 3 or 4 New Plants before 2012

Expect at least Half Converted to Urea or UAN

U.S. will be Primary Target for Trinidad Exports

Ammonia Imports from Trinidad grow to over5 million tonnes by 2012

Urea & UAN Imports from Trinidad grow toover 2.5 million tonnes by 2012