trying to make (yawn) demographics (snore) interesting ...€¦ · trying to make (yawn)...

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C h a r t i n g t h e F u t u r e

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Trying to Make (yawn) Demographics(snore) Interesting (yeah, right):

No – Really!!

A Presentation by:Jonathan Schechter, Executive Director

The Charture InstituteJackson, Wyoming

A Presentation to:The Jackson Hole Community School

September 24, 2008

P.O. Box 4672 • 485 Arapahoe Ln.Jackson, WY 83001 • (307) 733-8687 • [email protected]

Copyright © 2008 – The Charture Institute

ChartureInstituteCharting the Future

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The Charture Institute

Founded to examine PEAS (Places of Ecological and Aesthetic Significance), places such as resort and national

park gateway communities. In practice, a three-legged stool.

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Founding HypothesisResorts & gateways are growing and changing more rapidly than the nation asa whole. They share this and other qualities, but aren’t learning from each other.


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Founding HypothesisResorts & gateways are growing and changing more rapidly than the nation asa whole. They share this and other qualities, but aren’t learning from each other.

PEAS

Leg 1:

Research

Sustaining Jackson Hole

Leg 2:

ActionsLeg 3:

Funding


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Changing Demographics – I

Context – The world’s population stayed flat 0-1100 C.E.;started taking off with the Industrial Revoluation in 1700s

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0 - 1800 CE (Census Bureau & estimates)

Total World Population


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Changing Demographics – II

As Industrial Revolution took hold, population grew 70%

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Population - 1800-1900




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Changing Demographics – III

During the 1900s, the world’s population quadrupled

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Changing Demographics – IV

From 1960-2000, the world’s population grew by 3 billion

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1900-2000 (Census Bureau & estimates)



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Changing Demographics – V

During the 1900s, America’s population almost quadrupled

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200

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300US Population 1900-2000

1900-2000 (Census Bureau & estimates)

Total U.S. Population


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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – I

Slow growth (2%/yr.): 1900=1,100 (est.); 1960= 3,100

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10,000

15,000

20,000Teton WY 1900-1960

Total Permanent Population of Teton WY (1900-1920 est.)

Teton WY Population Growth: 1900-2000


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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – II

Fast growth (6%/yr.): 1960=3,100; 1980=9,400

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10,000

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20,000Teton WY 1900-1960

Teton WY 1960-1980




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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – III

Slow growth (2%/yr.): 1980=9,400; 1990=11,100

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10,000

15,000

20,000Teton WY 1900-1960

Teton WY 1960-1980

Teton WY 1980-1990




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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – IV

Fast growth (5%/yr.): 1990=11,100; 2000=18,300

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10,000

15,000

20,000Teton WY 1900-1960

Teton WY 1960-1980

Teton WY 1980-1990

Teton WY 1990-2000




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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – V

Since 1960, Teton WY has grown faster than nation, world

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0

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400

600

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Teton WY

US

World

World v. US v. Teton WY (1900=100)

Relative Population Growth: 1900-2000


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Changing Demographics: Teton WY – VI

The relationship between population growth and the economy

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10,000

15,000

20,000Teton WY - Ag./Mining Era

Teton WY - Industrial Tourism era

Teton WY - Transitition era

Teton WY - Lifestyle Economy era




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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – I

Fast growth (5%/yr.): 1900=1,500; 1960= 3,900

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4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000Teton ID - 1900-1920

Total Permanent Population of Teton ID

Teton ID Population Growth: 1900-2000


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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – II

Decline (-1%/yr.): 1920=3,900; 1970=2,400

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4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000Teton ID - 1900-1920

Teton ID - 1920-1970




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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – III

Slow growth (2%/yr.): 1970=2,400; 1990=3,400

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10,000Teton ID - 1900-1920

Teton ID - 1920-1970

Teton ID - 1970-1990




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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – IV

Fast growth (6%/yr.): 1990=3.400; 2000=6,000

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10,000Teton ID - 1900-1920

Teton ID - 1920-1970

Teton ID - 1970-1990

Teton ID - 1990-2000




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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – V


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Teton ID

US

World

World v. US v. Teton WY (1900=100)



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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – IV

The 1990s boom: Teton WY’s population grew as much in the1990s as it did from 1930-1980

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Teton WY - 1900-2000

Total Permanent Population of Teton ID & WY

Tetons Area Population Growth: 1900-2000


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Changing Demographics: Teton ID – V


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Teton ID

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World

World v. US v. Teton ID & WY (1900=100)



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POf America’s 3,140 counties, the top 10 in 1980-1990 medianhome price increase:

! New York, NY (island of Manhattan)– $394,300! Pitkin, CO (Aspen) – $252,700! San Mateo, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $219,500! Nantucket, MA (Nantucket Island) – $214,700! Marin, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $203,200! Westchester, NY (suburb of New York City) – $199,800! San Franciso, CA (city of San Francisco) – $194,300! Santa Clara, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $180,000! Santa Cruz, CA (suburb of San Francisco) – $162,000! Fairfield, CT (suburb of New York City) – $157,500

Not Just the Tetons: Median Home Prices

Median price of US home in 1990 = $79,100Median price of in 1980 = $37,300

Difference = $41,800


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POf America’s 3,140 counties, the top 10 in 1990-2000 medianhome price increase:

! New York, NY (island of Manhattan)– $512,700! Pitkin, CO (Aspen) – $297,200! Nantucket, MA (Nantucket Island) – $278,100! Eagle, CO (Vail) – $233,200! Teton, WY (Grand Teton NP; Jackson Hole) – $232,000! San Miguel, CO (Telluride) – $206,400! Summit, CO (Breckenridge) – $196,000! Summit, UT (Park City) – $188,200! Routt, CO (Steamboat) – $173,600! Blaine, ID (Sun Valley) – $161,400

Median Home Prices II: 1990-2000

Median price of US home in 2000 = $119,600Median price of in 1990 = $79,100

Difference = $40,500


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PEagle, CO (Vail)

PPitkin, CO (Aspen)

PRoutt, CO (Steamboat)

PSan Miguel, CO (Telluride)

PSummit, CO (Breckenridge)

PBlaine, ID (Sun Valley)

PNantucket, MA (Nantucket Island)

PSummit, UT (Park City)

PTeton, WY (Grand Teton NP; Jackson Hole)

The A9 Counties

The “Archetypal 9" – 9 counties which serve as archetypes forunderstanding the growth and change going on in resort &

gateway towns – in fact, in all “nice” places to live –throughout the nation, world


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Changes in the A9 – Housing

The proportion of A9 second homes has declined...

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2nd or rental home (Y1) Primary residence (Y1)

Primary/Total (Y2)

Number of Homes by Occupancy Status

Housing Stock in A9 Counties: 1950-2000


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Changes in the A9 – Housing (cont.)

... and prices have risen as demand crushes supply

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

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$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

A9 Counties Median Home Value

Median Home Value in the A9 (constant $s)

A9 Home Values: 1950-2000


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Changes in the A9 – Economy I

A9 income is growing faster than the US’s.It’s also growing faster than the A9's population

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0

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$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000A9 - Per Capita Income (constant $s)

US - Per Capita Income (constant $s)

Per Capita Income, by Year (constant $s)

US v. A9 Counties: 1970-2005


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Changes in the A9 – Economy II

There is now 1 A9 job for every A9 resident (US=0.6)

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0.8

1

1.2

A9 counties

US

Total Jobs/Resident, v. US

A9 Counties: 1970-2005


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Changes in the A9 – Education Levels

We’re better-educated than the nation (and think we’re smarter)

6%8%

11%

16%

20%

24%

6%8%

16%

33%

36%

45%

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20%

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50%

US

A9 counties

Percent of Adults with Bachelor's Degree or Higher

US v. A9 Education Levels: 1950-2000


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Changes in the A9 – Voting Patterns

From 1960-1988, GOP candidates won the A9s 55%-40%;from 1992-2004, the Democratic margin was 47%-38%

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#W on by Democrat

#W onb yR epublican

A9C ountiesW onb yP residentialC andidate,b yP arty

Voting in A9 Counties - 1960-2004


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Two basic reasons:

1. Because people want to move to the A9

2. Because they can

– There link between where people work and where they live is becoming increasingly severed

– There are Six Basic Changes driving this. The Six Basic Changes are affecting not just the A9, but all “nice” places to live

Part 2 – Why the A9 are Changing

A fundamental question: Why are the A9 booming?

As for Michael Corleone, he found himself standing, his heartpounding in his chest; he felt a little dizzy. The blood wassurging through his body, through all its extremities, andpounding against the tips of his fingers, the tips of his toes... Itseemed as if his body had sprung away from him out of himself.

“You got hit by the thunderbolt, eh?” Fabrizio said, clapping himon the shoulder... “You can’t hide the thunderbolt. When it hitsyou, everyone can see it. Christ, man, don’t be ashamed. Some men pray for the thunderbolt. You’re a lucky fellow.”

The Thunderbolt

From “The Godfather” by Mario Puzo


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#1 – The Thunderbolt ! People are moving to the A9 because they want to and because they can

Three Big Take-away Points


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PTechnology

PEconomy

PTransportation

PMores

PValues

PQuality of urban life

Why People Can Move to the A9

The Six Basic Changes transforming the A9, nation, world


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P 1980! No fax, FedEx, PCs, telecommunications competition

P 1990! No World Wide Web, cell phones, DVDs, MRI machines

P 2000! No iPods; wireless internet, digital cameras, hybrid vehicles! What else will be commonplace in 2010?

Basic Change 1 – Technology

Cheaper, more powerful, more ubiquitous


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PYears needed for US Patent Office to issue 2 million patents:! 0-2 million: 99 yrs; 2-4 million: 42 yrs; 4-6 million: 22 yrs; 6-8 million: 10 yrs

Technology (cont.)

Roughly 7 million US patents have been issued since 1790

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8,000,000Annuapl atentsis sued( Y1)

Totalp atentsi ssued( Y2)

TotalP atentsI ssues:A nnuala ndC umulative

USP atents1: 790-2005

Basic Change 2 – Economy

Since 1993, Jackson Hole’s summer tourism has declined...

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GTNP & YNP - combined visits (millions)

Grand Teton + Yellowstone - Combined Annual Visits

Teton County, WY: 1993-2006

The Teton County Paradox

...but the county’s population and economy have boomed

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Population

GTNP & YNP - combined visits

Relative Growth of Socio-economic Indicators (1993=100)

Teton County, WY: 1993-2006


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PFirst generation – Hunter-gatherer

PSecond generation – Land use! Farming, forestry, other agriculture! Mining, oil & gas, other extractives

PThird generation – Value added! Manufacturing (where transportation allows)! Tourism (where scenery allows)

PFourth generation – Intellectual activity! Professional services! Investments

So What’s Going On?A Theory of Economic Evolution

4 phases of economic activity


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Economic Evolution – I

Economic Evolution in U.S.: Divergence to convergence

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5%

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40%

US - 4th Generation (investments)

US - 3rd Generation (constr., manufacturing, lodging)

US - 2nd Generation (ag., mining, government)

Percentage of Total Personal Income from Different Sources

Economic Evolution of the US - 1970-2005


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Economic Evolution – II

Economic Evolution in A9s: Convergence to divergence

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30%

35%

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A9 - 4th Generation (investments)

A9 - 3rd Generation (constr., manufacturing, lodging)

A9 - 2nd Generation (ag., mining, government)


Economic Evolution of the A9 - 1970-2005


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Economic Evolution – III

A9s: Construction is more important than gov’t., lodging

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40%

A9 - 4th Generation (investments)

A9 - 3rd Generation (construction)

A9 - 3rd Generation (manufacturing & lodging)

A9 - 2nd Generation (ag., mining, government)


Economic Evolution of the A9 - 1970-2005


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#2 – The A9 are not tourism-driven economies any more ! Tourism amenities help lure permanent residents



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PYears needed for 50 million vehicles to be registered! Zero-50 million: 51 yrs; 50-100 mil: 17 yrs; 100-150 mil: 10 yrs; 150-200 mil: 16 yrs; 200-250 mil.: 12 yrs.

Basic Change 3 – Transportation

Roughly 250 million vehicles are registered in the US

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Total Vehicles Registered, by Year

United States: 1900 - 2004


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Transportation (cont.)

Vehicle growth is about 4x faster than population...

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350RegisteredV ehicles

U.S.P opulation

Relative Growth of Population and Vehicles Registered (1960=100)

U.S. Population & Transportation: 1960-2004


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Transportation (cont.)

...but vehicle growth pales in comparison to air travel/freight

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Revenue Passenger Ton-miles

Registered Vehicles

U.S. Population

Relative Growth of Population, Vehicles, Air Usage (1960=100)

U.S. Population & Transportation: 1960-2000


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PCasual dress in the office

PFlex work schedules & tele-commuting

PWe want the best; we want it for nothing! Expectations on government for services – both quantity and quality –

are growing exponentially

Basic Change 4 – Mores

Increasingly, we want it all; deserve it all


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PHealthy environment and wildlife

PAbundant recreational opportunities

PSimpler, more intimate communities

PPersonal safety

Basic Change 5 – Values

The A9 counties have what people want


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PCities becoming increasingly problematic! Increasingly congested and hard to live in

PWhy make the continued sacrifice?! Living in the A9 holds increasingly greater appeal; requires increasingly fewer sacrifices

PThe “Aha!” moment! “I can have it all!” - move to an A9 and get recreational lifestyle; same

income; higher quality of life! All for less; all with increasingly fewer sacrifices

Basic Change 6 – Quality of Urban Life

America’s values and mores are becoming increasinglyaligned with what the A9 have,

less so with what America’s cities offer


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#2 – The A9 are not tourism-driven economies any more ! Tourism-amenities help lure permanent residents

#3 – The Six Basic Changes ! Technology ! Economy ! Transportation ! Mores ! Values ! Changes in Urban Life – Virtual Suburbanization



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PBetween 1900 and 1990, the A9 counties went from 2nd to 3rdgeneration; since 1990, the A9 counties have gone from 3rd to4th generation! Whiplash-inducing pace of change; much faster than we’re used to

handling, whether genetically or institutionally

PThe A9 are now “lifestyle economy” towns! Residents are attracted to recreational amenities; resorts as public good! Screw up your town, and well-to-do residents will leave it just as quickly

as they came! Reality: The A9s are where the rest of the world is heading

PThe bad news: A9 (and other resort town) leaders are using3rd generation tools (planning, revenue generation,governance, etc.) and a 3rd generation mindset to deal with4th generation challenges! The poorer the synchronization between reality and perception, the

harder it is to govern

Part 3: The Effects of These Changes

Q: What’s happened to the A9?


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PThe 6 Basic Changes aren’t going to reverse themselves

PThe A9 will continue to face the same challenges, only moreso! The same holds true for other resort communities

PThe A9 will continue to become more economically diversified,less dependent on tourism, more like other communities (justway more beautiful...)

The Effects of These Changes (cont.)

Q: What does the future hold?


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PA couple of no-brainers! The A9 will continue to see above-average growth in many areas:< Population, education levels, housing, income, etc.

! A9s’ economies will become increasingly 4th generation, at the expenseof “traditional” industries such as agriculture and tourism< People with 4th generation incomes make more money; can outcompete 2nd

and 3rd generation folks for any consumer good (especially housing)< Tremendous “community character” implications

PUnlike previous booms, this one isn’t going to bust! This boom is based on lifestyles & the 6 Basic Changes; not commodities! Unless, of course, we soil our own nests...

PThe new suburbs’ suburbs

PTremendous homogenization pressure/pressure to sell thecommunity short! Economic forces are homogenizing the US – A9 are not immune! You can replicate an outlet mall anywhere; not a mountain range< Unique commands a premium; what makes you unique?

The Six Basic Changes and the A9

Q: What are the implications?


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PSocial change follows economic change! The A9s’ demographic and economic changes are clearly here, but we

don’t perceive them< We still think we’re tourism economies, and the attendant social, political, and

cultural changes haven’t really been felt yet! People can’t move to a place without ultimately changing it< This is particularly true in the A9, with its lifestyle-oriented arrivistes

PCommunities can change very fast in one generation;perceptions change much more slowly! Communities change much faster than government realizes/can react

PSchechter’s maxim: Economies change faster thanperceptions; perceptions change faster than politics! Leaders arrived in a tourism age; governing in a lifestyle economy age< Government usually dependent on second- and third-generation income

! Our instinct is to look to government, but that’s fool’s gold< Local governments are having a hard time keeping up with the growth and change overwhelming their communities; need help from all of us

The Six Basic Changes and the A9

Conclusions

"What will happen when California is filled by fifty millions of people,and its valuation is five times what it is now, and the wealth will be sogreat that you will find it difficult to know what to do with it? The daywill, after all, have only twenty-four hours. Each man will have onlyone mouth, one pair of ears, and one pair of eyes. There will be morepeople – as many, perhaps, as the country can support – and the realquestion will not be about making more wealth or having more people,but whether those people will then be happier."

A Closing Thought from 100 Years Ago

Lord James Bryce, British historian(from a speech at U.C. Berkeley, 1909)

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I n s t i t u t eC h a r t i n g t h e F u t u r e

trying to make (yawn) demographics (snore) interesting ...€¦ · trying to make (yawn)...

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