tv in 2017 and beyond

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PROVIDING IN-DEPTH INSIGHT, DATA, AND ANALYSIS OF EVERYTHING DIGITAL. THE FUTURE OF TV 2017 THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX ABOUT HOW WE CONSUME VIDEO

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Page 1: TV in 2017 and beyond

P R O V I D I N G I N - D E P T H I N S I G H T , D A T A , A N D A N A L Y S I S O F

E V E R Y T H I N G D I G I T A L .

THE FUTURE OF TV 2017TH I NKI NG O UTSI DE

TH E BO X ABO UT H O W WE CO NSUM E VI DE O

Page 2: TV in 2017 and beyond

TRADITIONAL TV WAS LINEAR —A SET TIME, ON A SET NETWORK

Page 3: TV in 2017 and beyond

BUT NEW MEDIA SOURCES CONTINUE TO GARNER A LARGER SHARE OF ATTENTION

Note: Other media includes time-shifted TV, TV-connected devices, radio, and total internet usageSource: Nielsen, Rentrak

P E R C E N T A G E O F T O T A L M E D I A U S A G E A M O N G U S A D U L T S

52% 48% 45% 40%

48% 52% 55% 60%

2013 2014 2015 2016

AllOtherMedia

LiveTV

Page 4: TV in 2017 and beyond

Millennials43%

S H A R E O F C O R D - C U T T E R S O R C O R D - N E V E R S W H O A R E

M I L L E N N I A L S

WHICH IS A BIG REASON WHY MILLENNIALS ARE CUTTING THE CORD

n=25,000 US consumersSource: GfK MRI Survey of the American Consumer, Fall 2016

Cordless30%

S H A R E O F M I L L E N N I A L S W H O A R E C O R D - C U T T E R S O R

C O R D - N E V E R S

Page 5: TV in 2017 and beyond

CONSUMERS OF ALMOST ALL AGE GROUPS ARE WATCHING LESS TRADITIONAL TV

Source: Nielsen, January 2016

2-11-26%

12-17-38%

18-24-39%

25-34-34%

35-49-19%

50-64-9%

65+2%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Q32012 Q32013 Q32014 Q32015 Q32016

T I M E S P E N T W A T C H I N G T R A D I T I O N A L T V , B Y A G E G R O U P

Page 6: TV in 2017 and beyond

THAT’S HURTING EVEN TV STRONGHOLDS, LIKE SPORTS

Source: Nielsen, WSJ

96.17

94.4

92.94

90.99

89.01 88.78

Jul'14 Feb'15 Jul'15 Feb'16 Jul'16 Aug'16

Lost7.4Mhouseholds in2

years

H O U S E H O L D S W I T H E S P N( M I L L I O N S )

NBCSundayNightFootball: -10%

FoxSunday: -7%

CBSSunday:-6%

CBSThursdayNight:-15%

ESPNMondayNight:-12%

N F L R A T I N G S( R E G U L A R S E A S O N 2 0 1 5 V S . 2 0 1 6 )

Page 7: TV in 2017 and beyond

55 52 5045

5954 54

49

CBS ABC NBC FOX

2010 2015

MEANWHILE, TRADITIONAL TV AUDIENCES ARE GETTING OLDER

Source: The Sternberg Report, Nielsen

M E D I A N V I E W E R S H I P A G E O F B I G 4 B R O A D C A S T N E T W O R K S

Page 8: TV in 2017 and beyond

209 212260 273

325357 375 362

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

LESS ORIGINAL CONTENT IS BEING MADE FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER

Source: FX Research, December 2016

S C R I P T E D O R I G I N A L S E R I E S O N T R A D I T I O N A L T V ( U S )The#ofbroadcast&cablescriptedoriginalseries

dipped forthefirsttimeYoY

Page 9: TV in 2017 and beyond

$54$57

$61$63

$67$70

$74

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AND PAY-TV PRICES HAVE FINALLY SURPASSED WHAT CONSUMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY

$72

$60

Upperlimitconsumersarewillingtopay

Lowerlimitconsumersarewillingtopay

n=4,000Source: Activate

M O N T H L Y P R I C E O F E X P A N D E D B A S I C C A B L E ( U S )

Page 10: TV in 2017 and beyond

THAT DOESN’T MEAN TV IS DYING — JUST THE DEFINITION IS CHANGING

Page 11: TV in 2017 and beyond

Source: Gfk MRI Survey of the American Consumer, Fall 2016

“Millennials are most likely to define ‘TV’ as anything they can watch on any device — a TV,

laptop, smartphone, or tablet.”

Page 12: TV in 2017 and beyond

IT’S NO LONGER JUST TV NETWORKS

n=1,309 US consumers who watch at least five hours of TV per weekSource: Hub Research, January 2017

75%

33%

45%

72%

TVNetworks

16-24YearsOld 55+YearsOld

Q : H E R E A R E S O M E T E R M S R E L A T E D T O T V . W H I C H O N E S C O M E C L O S E S T T O W H A T Y O U T H I N K O F W H E N Y O U T H I N K O F T V ?

Page 13: TV in 2017 and beyond

IN FACT, LOYALTY TO TRADITIONAL TV NETWORKS IS DIMINISHING

n=1,309 US consumers who watch at least five hours of TV per weekSource: Hub Research, January 2017

Only13%saythatnetworkbrandsareabigfactorintheirdecisionaboutwhichshowtowatch

Lessthanhalf(41%)canidentify theoriginalnetworkofashowthatairedonanSVODservice

Page 14: TV in 2017 and beyond

SO WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

Page 15: TV in 2017 and beyond

DIGITAL DISRUPTION

Page 16: TV in 2017 and beyond

LiveTV47%

Digital28%

Other26%

DIGITAL IS EATING AWAY AT LIVE TV

Note: Other = time-shifted TV & radioSource: Nielsen

LiveTV39%

Digital39%

Other22%

Q32014 Q32016

S H A R E O F M E D I A T I M E S P E N T P E R D A Y P E R A D U L T , B Y F O R M A T ( U S )

Page 17: TV in 2017 and beyond

IT’S STILL GROWING, UNLIKE TRADITIONAL TV

Source: eMarketer, BI Intelligence

C H A N G E I N A V E R A G E T I M E S P E N T P E R D A Y W I T H M E D I A ( U S )

17%15%

7%6%

5% 3%1%-2% -3% -4% -2% -2%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Digital TV

Page 18: TV in 2017 and beyond

64%57%

53%

31%38% 40%

2014 2015 2016

Set-TopBox Online

AND IT’S BECOMING A TOP CHOICE FOR VIDEO CONSUMPTION

Q: What is the main source you use to watch your favorite program? Source: Hub Research, n=1,200

T O P S O U R C E F O R C O N S U M I N G V I D E O C O N T E N T ( U S )

Page 19: TV in 2017 and beyond

49.5 49.3 49.2 49.0 48.8 49.1 49.1 48.9 48.8

51.2 52.053.0 53.5 54.3

55.356.3 57.0 57.8

Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316

TV Broadband

MEANWHILE, CONSUMERS ARE SHIFTING FROM CABLE TV TO BROADBAND

Source: Leichtman Research Group

TotalSubscrib

ers(M

illions)

U S C A B L E S U B S C R I B E R S , B Y S E R V I C ETVdown1%,broadbandup13%fromQ314

Page 20: TV in 2017 and beyond

CREATING AN INCREASE IN BROADBAND-ONLY HOUSEHOLDS

9.2 9.86 10.8912.09

14.816.3

18.019.9

21.9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

B R O A D B A N D - O N L Y H O U S E H O L D S I N T H E U S( M I L L I O N S )

Source: SNL Kagan

2016-2020:14%CAGR

Page 21: TV in 2017 and beyond

4:104:48

5:095:28 5:43 5:53

4:38 4:31 4:22 4:11 4:05 4:00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Digital TV

SO DIGITAL MEDIA CONSUMPTION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW, WHILE TRADITIONAL STUMBLES

Source: eMarketer

A V E R A G E T I M E S P E N T P E R D A Y W I T H M E D I A ( U S )

+41%vs.2012

-14%vs.2012

Page 22: TV in 2017 and beyond

$74.50$73.70

$42.80

$77.40

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

WHICH IS CAUSING A SHIFT IN HOW MARKETERS SPEND THEIR MONEY

Source: IAB, PwC, BI Intelligence estimates

U S D I G I T A L V S . T V A D S P E N D ( B I L L I O N S )

Digitaladspendtosurpass TVforthe

firsttime

Page 23: TV in 2017 and beyond

EXPLOSION OF SCREENS

Page 24: TV in 2017 and beyond

72%

44%

18%12%

78%

54%

22% 19%

84%

61%

28% 25%

Smartphone Tablet MultimediaDevice SmartTV

2014 2015 2016

HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION OF MAJOR DEVICES CONTINUES TO INCREASE

Note: Multimedia Device = Apple TV, Amazon Fire Stick, Roku, Google Chromecast, etc.Source: Nielsen

D E V I C E S I N U S H O U S E H O L D S , B Y P E N E T R A T I O N

Page 25: TV in 2017 and beyond

AND CONSUMERS ARE SPENDING MORE AND MORE TIME WATCHING VIDEO ON THESE DEVICES

Source: Ericsson

P E R C E N T A G E O F M O B I L E D A T A T R A F F I C V O L U M E F R O M V I D E O

2014 2016 2022

45% 50% 75%

Page 26: TV in 2017 and beyond

WHICH IS SEEMINGLY EATING AWAY AT TRADITIONAL TV

Note: Digital TV = connected TVs, desktops, smartphones, and tabletsSource: Nielsen

1,455

1,143

1,3471,431

TraditionalTV DigitalTV

WeeklyaverageduringQ12015 WeeklyaverageduringQ12016

-7%YoY +25%YoY

V I E W I N G T I M E B Y U S A D U L T S ( M I N U T E S )

Page 27: TV in 2017 and beyond

23%

15%17%

31%

20% 19%

Browsetheinternet,relatedtocontentI'mwatching

Watchaprogramonmymobile device

Online discussions aboutthecontentI'mwatching

2014 2016

AND EVEN CONSUMING ATTENTION DURING TRADITIONAL TV VIEWING TIME

Source: Ericsson, 2016

S E C O N D S C R E E N U S E W H I L E W A T C H I N G T V ( U S )

Page 28: TV in 2017 and beyond

MOBILE IS TAKING OVER

Page 29: TV in 2017 and beyond

OVERALL TIME SPENT ON MOBILE IS SKYROCKETING

Source: comScore, 2016

409,847

621,410778,954

864,32877,081

97,440

118,299124,787

June'13 June'14 June'15 June'16

MobileApp MobileBrowser

U S D I G I T A L M E D I A T I M E S P E N T O N M O B I L E( M I L L I O N S O F M I N U T E S )

Page 30: TV in 2017 and beyond

AND CONSUMERS ARE SHIFTING THEIR DIGITAL VIDEO TIME TO MOBILE DEVICES

7%12%

27%

44%

51%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

U S M O B I L E V I D E O C O N S U M E R T I M E S P E N D, % O F T O TA L T I M E S P E N T O N O N L I N E V I D E O

Source: Ooyala Global Video Index

Mobilevideoviewingsurpasses

desktop forfirsttime

Page 31: TV in 2017 and beyond

19%

23%

33%

34%

39%

50%

FileSharing

WebBrowsing

Downloads

Audio

Social

Video

IN FACT, MOBILE VIDEO GROWTH IS SET TO OUTPACE ALL OTHER APPLICATION CATEGORIES

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2016

M O B I L E T R A F F I C , B Y A P P L I C A T I O N C A T E G O R Y( C A G R 2 0 1 6 - 2 0 2 2 )

Page 32: TV in 2017 and beyond

WHICH IS LEADING TO INCREASED CONTENT THAT IS TAILORED TO MOBILE SCREENS

Page 33: TV in 2017 and beyond

33%

43%

33%

63%

75%

54%

Desktop Mobile Tablets

2014 2016

INCLUDING VIDEO CONTENT THAT IS 10 MINUTES OR LESS

How to read: Viewers watched desktop videos less than 10 minutes 33% of the timeSource: Ooyala

S H O R T - F O R M C O N T E N T S H A R E O F T I M E W A T C H E D , B Y D E V I C E( G L O B A L )

91%

74%

64%

Page 34: TV in 2017 and beyond

10.1

1.9

8.3

3.2

ProfessionalContent Pro-AmandAmateurContent

2011 2016

AND AMATEUR PRODUCED CONTENT

n=266 millennials aged 19-30Source: Boston Consulting Group

M I L L E N N I A L S ’ A V E R A G E H O U R S V I E W E D

18%

68%

385

489

628

788

938

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

G L O B A L C O N T E N T C R E A T O R S ( M I L L I O N S )

Page 35: TV in 2017 and beyond

THE NEW TV IS DIGITAL, SOCIAL, AND CROSS-PLATFORM

Page 36: TV in 2017 and beyond

DIGITAL PLAYERS ARE DOMINATING

Page 37: TV in 2017 and beyond

SVOD IS CONTROLLING HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION GROWTH

Source: Nielsen, Leichtman Research Group, BI Intelligence estimates

88% 86% 83% 82% 80% 78% 76% 75%

35% 41%48%

55%61%

66%71% 75%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pay-TV SVOD

U S H O U S E H O L D S W I T H P A Y -T V V S . S V O D

Ifthistrendcontinues,thesame%ofhomeswithPay-TVwillhaveaccesstoanSVODserviceby2020

Page 38: TV in 2017 and beyond

$11.9

$10.2

$5.7$4.9

$3.8$2.9 $2.7 $2.5

$2.0$0.8

SVOD SPENDING IS R IGHT UP THERE WITH MAJOR TV NETWORKS

Note: Red denotes a pureplay SVOD providerSource: IHS Markit TV Programming Intelligence

2 0 1 5 G L O B A L P R O G R A M M I N G S P E N D ( B I L L I O N S )

Page 39: TV in 2017 and beyond

209 212260 273

325 357 375 3621 4

6 15

2432

46 93

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Broadcast/Cable Online TV

WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INFLUX OF ONLINE VIDEO CONTENT

Online TV: Amazon Prime, Crackle, Hulu, Netflix, PlayStation, Seeso, Vimeo, Yahoo, and YouTube RedSource: FX Research, December 2016

E S T I M A T E D N U M B E R O F S C R I P T E D O R I G I N A L S E R I E S ( U S )

+102%YoY

-3%YoY

Page 40: TV in 2017 and beyond

13,643,000

17,275,000

20,777,000

22,428,000

47,497,000

AND LEADING TO MASSIVE (GROWING) AUDIENCES

Source: Company filings

NetflixhasmoreUSsubs thanComcastand

DirecTVcombined

P A Y -T V A N D S V O D U S S U B S C R I B E R S ( Q 3 2 0 1 6 )

Page 41: TV in 2017 and beyond

012%

134%

234%

314%

4,4%

5+1%

GIVING CONSUMERS THE CHANCE TO CREATE THEIR OWN DIGITAL TV BUNDLES

Q: “How many PAID streaming video subscriptions do you have?” Source: BI Intelligence Survey, October 2016, n=1,146

N U M B E R O F P A I D V I D E O S T R E A M I N G S E R V I C E S( U S A D U L T S )

53%ofrespondentshave2ormoreSVODservices

Page 42: TV in 2017 and beyond

AND ALLOWING THEM TO WATCH WHATEVER, WHENEVER THEY WANT VIA OFFLINE VIEWING

Source: Company filings

Theoffline viewingfeatureenablesuserstodownloadandwatchfilmsandTVshowsinplaceswhereinternetislimitedorexpensive— likein

subways,carrides,andplanes.

Page 43: TV in 2017 and beyond

SOCIAL NETWORKS ARE EMERGING VIDEO PLATFORMS

Page 44: TV in 2017 and beyond

SOCIAL CHANNELS ARE LANDING MAJOR TV DEALS TO HOST VIDEO CONTENT ON THEIR PLATFORMS

R E C E N T S O C I A L P L A T F O R M T V D E A L S

Source: Company filings, BI Intelligence

September2016

December2016

January2017

February2017

August2016

July2016

April2016

Page 45: TV in 2017 and beyond

$3.1

$3.0

$2.5

$1.6

$1.5

$1.2

$1.2

$1.2

$1.0

$1.0

BuzzFeed

NewYorkTimes

CNN

HuffingtonPost

NowThisMedia

NPR

VoxMedia

Hearst

ViceMedia

Tastemade

AND PLATFORMS LIKE FACEBOOK HAVE EVEN PAID MEDIA OUTLETS TO CREATE LIVE VIDEO

A M O U N T P A I D B Y F A C E B O O K F O R L I V E V I D E O C O N T E N T ( M I L L I O N S )

Source: Wall Street Journal, June 2016

Page 46: TV in 2017 and beyond

WHICH IS CAUSING A SPIKE IN OVERALL SOCIAL VIDEO VIEWERSHIP

Source: Facebook, Snapchat, YouTube, WSJ, Bloomberg, BI Intelligence estimates

45

6

8

10

Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16

4

6

8

10

12

Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16

6.0 6.3 6.5 7.08.0

Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q2'15 Q4'15

+200%

+150% +33%

D A I L Y V I D E O V I E W S , B Y P L A T F O R M ( B I L L I O N S )

Page 47: TV in 2017 and beyond

$5.1 $4.9 $5.4$6.3 $6.4 $6.7$6.9 $6.6 $7.6

$3.6$5.5

$9.1

$13.7

$16.8

$21.5

Q1-Q32014 Q1-Q32015 Q1-Q32016

CBS Disney Comcast Facebook Google

AND HELPING TO DRIVE AD REVENUE FOR THESE PLATFORMS

U S A D V E R T I S I N G R E V E N U E ( B I L L I O N S )

#5 #3#2

FBadrevsurpassesTVforthefirst

time

Source: The Information

Page 48: TV in 2017 and beyond

WHILE TRADITIONAL PLATFORMS GROW MORE SLOWLY

Source: Company reports, UBS

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Millions

M O D E R N D I G I T A L A D R E V E N U E V S . T R A D I T I O N A L T V R E V E N U E

Page 49: TV in 2017 and beyond

MODERN TV IS ON EVERY DEVICE

Page 50: TV in 2017 and beyond

48%

EVEN SHORT-FORM VIDEO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY POPULAR ON BIG SCREENS…

Source: Google, YouTube, December 2016

Y O U T U B E V I E W I N G T I M E O N T V S

Shareofviewersaged16-34whohavewatchedYouTubeontheirTV

screen

YouTubeviewingtimeonTVscreensmorethandoubled YoYin2016

2015 2016

Theaveragelengthofanonlinevideo:

4:20

Page 51: TV in 2017 and beyond

…WHILE LONGER-FORM CONTENT IS DRAWING BIG AUDIENCES ON DIGITAL SCREENS

Source: NBC Sports Group

Over1Bminutes ofOlympics-relatedcontentconsumedon

YouTube

NBC digitalsitesdrew100Munique visitors, 29%higherthan2012LondonGames

2.2B snapsacrossLiveandDiscoverplatformsintheUS,with230M minofconsumed content

600MvideoviewsonNBCOlympics Page,with3.5Mlive

viewers consuming FBLivevideos

2 0 1 6 O L Y M P I C S D I G I T A L B R E A K D O W N

Page 52: TV in 2017 and beyond

AND THE RISE OF INTERNET-CONNECTED DEVICES ALLOWS FOR ONLINE VIEWING ON TV SCREENS

Source: Digital TV Research, BI Intelligence estimates

115163

228307

397

487

584

673759

831870 896

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Millions

G L O B A L I N T E R N E T - C O N N E C T E D T V S I N S T A L L E D B A S E

Year-Over-YearG

rowth

Page 53: TV in 2017 and beyond

6.6 6.24.6

0.5 1.1 4.3

0.15

2014 2015 2021

OtherSubscriptions LTE 5G

BUT IT WILL BE LTE & 5G NETWORKS THAT DRIVE MOBILE VIDEO GROWTH INTO THE FUTURE

Source: Ericsson

G L O B A L M O B I L E S U B S C R I P T I O N G R O W T H , B Y N E T W O R K ( B I L L I O N S )

Page 54: TV in 2017 and beyond

MODERN TV ISEVERYWHERE,ANYTIME,ON ANY PLATFORM