APN Scoping Workshop Enhancing Actions of Developing Countries on AdaptationEnhancing Actions of Developing Countries on Adaptation

in the Asia-Pacific Region

Two Approaches in CC Adaptation

20 August 2012

Nobuo MimuraInstitute for Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS)

Ibaraki University1

Contents of Presentation

1 P i f Ad t ti Pl i1. Premises for Adaptation Planning

2 Approaches in two directions2. Approaches in two directions

3.How to combine the risk information withresponses -Wise adaptation approach

4 S4. Summary

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1. Premises for Adaptation Planning

Occurring impactsEffects of climate change has been experienced in the world. Proceeding of CC to a certain extent will be inevitable.g

Adaptation deficitMany developing countries are not safe even for today’sMany developing countries are not safe even for today s climate risks, such as floods, droughts, landslides etc.

Adaptation in local scaleAdaptation in local scaleRequested is assessment of impacts/vulnerability and adaptation planning in national, sub-national and local scales.

Decision-making under uncertaintyUncertainty is inevitably involved in the CC projection. How to deal with the uncertainty is a major issue in decision making

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deal with the uncertainty is a major issue in decision-making for adaptation.

2. Approaches in Two Directions

Global Climate Model

Society’s needs-based approach

Policy formulation

Downscaling to target area •Assessing risks

based approach

People’s participation

formulationto target area

Impact assessment

•Formulating adaptation•Resilient sustainable

Evaluate the existing policies

participationMitigation/Adaptation policy

society

Impacts on the ground

policies

Science-driven approach

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the groundapproach

Science for AdaptationGCMs(Climate Models)

Downscaling 1) Downscaling 2) St ti ti l d li

<Gaps>Method developmentData observation, collection, and

2) Statistical downscaling3) Data assimilation

Impact assessment

mining/ Calibration of RCMsData distribution/ interface with downstream

Impact assessment1) Models for physical impacts2) Estimate economic impacts3) Incorporate socioeconomic

Impact modelsCurrent/ future impactsCompound impacts3) Incorporate socioeconomic

changes to the assessment

Adaptation planning

Compound impacts

Present response/ long-term adaptationp p g1) Strategy and sectoral options2) Effects of adaption3) Capacity building

Present response/ long term adaptationRecognition of politicians and decision-makersRange of capacity building

Communication and awareness

g p y g

People’s acceptance

Merits and Limitations

Science-driven approach:• projections needed for proactive adaptation• but too complicated for local governments and• but too complicated for local governments and

communities.

S i t d b d hSociety need-based approach:• effective for responses to “today’s problems” based on

the needs on the groundg• but long-term CC risk may diffuse in the sea of

problems

<Gaps>How to incorporate the scientific results to the today’s

d i i ki ?6

decision-making?What capacity is needed for this?

Target

Comprehensive Assessment in S-4 and S-8

Target Areas

StabilizationScenarios

• Distribution of damages D t f diff t i i th• Damage costs for different emission pathways

• Foundation for national CC policy 7

Socioeconomic scenarios Climate scenarios

【【ThemeTheme 11】】 Research on highly reliable quantitative assessment of Research on highly reliable quantitative assessment of climate change impacts throughout Japanclimate change impacts throughout Japan

Si

HumanHumanhealthhealth

AgriAgri‐‐cultureculture

Coastal Coastal disaster disaster prevenpreven‐‐tiontion

EcoEco‐‐systemssystems

WaterWaterResourcesResources

Cli i d li n 

Integrated assessment modelEconomic assessment

mplified as

meth Feedback of actual conditions 

from local governments Feedback of actual conditions

Climate scenario downscaling

 projection

etho

d

【【Theme Theme 22】】Research on impact Research on impact assessment andassessment and

ssessment 

hod from local governments Feedback of actual conditions from developing countries

【【Theme 3Theme 3】】Research on indexes for Research on indexes for 

assessment of vulnerabilityassessment of vulnerability

Region

al me

comprehensive adaptationcomprehensive adaptationpolicies atpolicies atlocallocalgovernmentgovernmentlevellevel

assessment of vulnerability assessment of vulnerability and adaptation and adaptation effects in the effects in the AsiaAsia‐‐PacificPacific

regionregion

Provision of scientific findings to policy decision‐making organs in Japan and other countries

levellevel gg

Local government consortiumVarious impact and adaptationstudies in the Asia‐Pacific region

Distribution of Disaster Risks

Changes in Precipitation In 2030

1/50 t b 1/30

Increased land slide probability in 2050

降雨量極値差

(mm/day)降雨量極値差

(mm/day)斜面崩壊発生確率

(%)斜面崩壊発生確率

(%)

- 1/50 present becomes 1/30

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Range of Impacts due to Climate Models-Japanese Beech and Heat Disorder

120 6.0

80

100

%)

4.0

（1990=

1）

ch orde

r

60

ブナ林

適域(%

ス死亡リス

ク（450ppmCO2eq

550nese

bee

c

heat

dis

o

20

40

ブ

2.0

熱ストレ

ス

BaU

550ppmCO2eqJa

pan

tient

s of

h0

010 020 030 040 050 060 070 080 090 100

0.0

010 020 030 040 050 060 070 080 090 100

BaU

Pa

10

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Year

(From Dr Hijioka, NIES)

3.How to combine the risk information with responses- Wise adaptation approach

• How to plan adaptation under uncertainties in climate projection, effects of mitigation, social changes etc?• Introduce effective, efficient, flexible adaptation.

• Short-term and long-term planning1) Short-term adaptation

- respond to occurring climatic extremes e.g. DRM- monitoring/early warning, evacuation, rehabilitation- strengthen the existing policies and institutions “real time adaptation”

2) Long-term adaptation- flexible adjustment of adaptation planning- no/low regret policy

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g p y- incorporate the latest scientific information and GPs “adaptive adaptation”

Summary

1. Four premises for adaptation planning; 1) occurring CC impacts 2) adaptation deficit 3) adaptation planning inimpacts, 2) adaptation deficit, 3) adaptation planning in local scale, and decision-making under uncertainty.

2 Two approaches for adaptation; 1) science driven2. Two approaches for adaptation; 1) science-driven approach and 2) society’s needs-based approach.

3 Wi d t ti 1) h t t ( l ti d t ti ) d3. Wise adaptation; 1) short-term (real time adaptation) and 2) long-term (adaptive adaptation)

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Thank you very much.Thank you very much.

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