u patnaik what lies behind the food crisis in india and the global south

8/7/2019 U Patnaik What lies behind the Food Crisis in India and the Global South

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What Lies behind the Food Crisis in

India and the Global South?

Utsa Patnaik,

Centre for Economic Studies and Planning

Jawaharlal Nehru University

New Delhi, India


2/26

Chart 1a Sectoral Output and GDP per Head, 1981-2 to

2005-6

Sectoral Output per Head and GDP per Head, 1981

2 to 2005-6,Rupees in constant 1999-00 prices

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1982

-3

1985

-6

1988

-9

1991

-2

1994-5

1997

-8

2000

-1

2003

-4

2005

-6

GDP

PRIMARY

SECOND

TERTIARY


3/26

Chart 1b Share of Sectors in GDP, constant 1999-00

values

SectorShares in GD Constant 1999-00 Values

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1982

-3

1985

-6

1988

-9

1991

-2

1994

-5

1997-8

2000

-1

2003

-4

2006

-7

PercentofGDP

PR R

C ND R

R R


4/26

Chart 2a Annual Growth Rate per decade of

Development and Total Expenditure, 1970-79 to 1990-99

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970-79 1980-89 1990-99

Annual Growth Rates per Decade of Development

and Total Expenditures, %

D V. X

TOT L X


5/26

Chart 2b Annual Growth Rate of Spending on Economic

and Social Services by States, 1972-79 to 1990-1999

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1972-79 1980-89 1990-99

Annu l Growth r t p r D d of Sp nding on

E onomi nd So i l S rvi by St t 72 to

ECON. SEVICES

SOCIAL SERVCES


6/26

Chart 2c Decline in Rural Development Spending,

1985-90 to 2003-4

Rural Develeop ent xpenditure and

Infrastructure xpenditure as Percent ofNNP

under cono ic Refor s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1985-90 1993-4 1995-6 1997-8 2000-1 2003-4

P

ercentofNNP

RD

IF


7/26

Chart 3a Unemployment Rates 1993-4 and

2004-5, All-India Rural, Female Workers

Weekly and Daily tatus Une ploy entRates, 1993-4 and 004-

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1993-4 2004-5

Weekly status

Daily tatus


8/26

Chart 3b. Unemployment Rates during 1993-4

and 2004-5, All-India Rural, Male Workers

0

10

20

30

40

50

00

0

90

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

ast

West

North

Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates,

1993-4 and 2004-5

0

20

40

60

80

100

1993-4 2004-5

Unem

ploymentRat

Weekly status

Daily Status


9/26

Chart 4a Coconut Price Trend in India compared to

Indonesia and Philippines, 1991 to 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

P

riceinUS$perTon

ne

INDO NESIA

INDIA

PHILIPPINES


10/26

Chart 4b Index of Coconut Price 1991 to 2003, base

1991=100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Index

fC

nutPr

ducerPrice,

=

IND NESIA

INDIA

PHI IPPINES


11/26

Chart 4c Price Trend of Pepper 1999-00 to 2004-05

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1999

00

2000

01

2001

02

2002

03

2003

04

2004

05

Pr ce n S$ per T nne

Internation al

Price

Domestic Price

Vietnam M Price

Indonesia M Price


12/26

Chart 4d Index of Pepper Price 1999-00 to 2004-05 with

base 1999-00 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999

-00

2000

-01

2201

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

IndexofPrice,

-

=Internation alPrice

Domestic Price

ietnam Price

Indonesia

Price


13/26

Chart 4e Recent Price Changes, March to December 2008 (Rs. Per

uintal except Cardamom which is Rs. Per 10 kg)

Price change from March to December 2008

0 5000 10000 15000

Coff

C mom

Rubb

Coco ut

D cember

Jul

M rch


14/26

Chart 5 Farmer Suicide Rate compared to General

Suicide Rate 2001

Farmer Suicide Rate compared with General

Suicide Rate, Census 2001

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

M le Fem le

N

umberper100,000

F rmerSuicide R te

Gener l Suicide R te


15/26

Chart 6 Direct, Indirect and Total Demand for

Grain with Rising Income


16/26

Chart 7a Decadal average Foodgrains Growth rate

and Population Growth rate, 1981 to 2008

Decade average oodgrain Ou pu Grow h and

opu ation Growth Rates, 1980-1 to 2007-8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1981-90 1991-2000 2001-08

Percentperannu

FG

POP


17/26

Chart 7b Foodgrains Output and Availability per Capita, India 1989-90 to

2007-08 in Kilograms per Annum

Note : Output is Net Output = 0.87.5 times Gross Output

Availability = Net Output + Net Imports Net Addition to Public Stocks. Both variables divided by total population for per capita values. Chart

updated to 2007-08 from Patnaik, 2007b

(Trienni l ver ge in Kg. perAnnu )

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

1991-

92

1994-

95

1997-

98

2000-

01

2003-

04

2006-

07

Foodgrin

,Kg.per

pit

OUTPUT

A AI ABI IT


18/26

Chart 7c Change in Protein Intake, Gms per Capita,

2004-5 compared to 1993-4

Ch nge in Protein Int e, G . perCapita , -5co pareto

3-4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Change in Protein Intake

C

u

ulatiepercentof

Peron

Percent of Persons


19/26

Chart 7d Output per Capita per annum of Cereals

and Starchy Roots in China, 1988 to 2002, in

Kilograms

Per capita supplies of cereals and starchy roots, China , 1988-

2002 (Kgs)

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

cereals

starchy roots


20/26

Chart 7e Six most populous Countries in Sub-

Saharan Africa: Index of per Capita Cereals and All

Food staples Output, Base 1979-81 = 100

Six Most Populous Countries : Index ofper

Capita Cereals and All Food staples Output, Base

19 9- 1 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1988 1998

Cereals

ll F d


21/26

Table 1 The Rural Poor as Percent of Rural Population in

India

1973-74 1993-94 2004-05

SS ROU D: 28th 50th 61st

RURAL

Direct Estimate

MPCE, Rs. required for

1. 2400 calories 56 325 790

2. 2200 calories 49 260 700

Percent of persons below

3. 2400 calories 72 74.5 87

4. 2200 calories 56.4 58.5 69.5

Official Estimate

5. Official poverty line, MPCE, Rs. 49 206 356

6. Poverty percentage 56.4 37.3 28.3

7. Calorie Intake at OPL 2200 1970 1820


22/26

Chart 8a Official and Directly estimated Poverty Lines, All-India

Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5 .

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

19

73-4

19

77-8

1983 19

93-4

20

04-5Mon

thlypercapitaExpenditure,

Rs.

Official PL

Direct PL

Source: Table 1 lines 1 and 5. Official poverty lines update the cost of a 1973-4 basket while direct poverty

lines apply the official nutrition norm to the current data at each point of time


23/26

Chart 8b Official and Directly estimated percent of

Persons in Poverty, All-India Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5,

obtained by applying the respective Poverty Lines

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

100

1973

-4

1977

-819

83

1993-4

2004-5

PercenoP

er

on

Offi i l overty

ercentage

Direct overty

ercentage

Source: Table 1, lines 3 and 6.


24/26

Chart 8c Declining Calorie Intake accessible at Official Poverty

Lines, All-India Rural 1973-4 to 2004-5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

19

73 4

19

77 8

1983 19

93 4

20

04 5CalrieIn

akeperaypercapia

Calories at

Official overty

Lineless 1000

Official Calorienormless 1000

Source : Table 1 line 7


25/26

Chart 9 Per Capita Cereal Output per Annum in Kg., World 1963

to 2005 ( Five year average centred on specified year)

Worl

r

i

real

K

.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2005

Kilogram

erA

m,Kg.

Per

pi

ereal Kg.

Source: FAOSTAT after 1988 and for earlier years various issues, FAO Food Outlook


26/26

Chart 10 Use of Corn for Ethanol and declining net Output, USA

U e E anol, U

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2002-3 2007-8 2008-9

Million

onne Corn tp t

Net of thanoluse

thanol fro

Corn

Source: US Department of Agriculture data

u patnaik what lies behind the food crisis in india and the global south

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