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Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover

Hels, Tove

Publication date:2011

Document VersionOgså kaldet Forlagets PDF

Link back to DTU Orbit

Citation (APA):Hels, T. (2011). Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport - nu og fremover [Lyd og/eller billed produktion (digital)].,01/01/2011

Uheldsmodeller på DTU Transport – nu og fremover

Tove Hels, ths@transport.dtu.dk

Workshop om uheldsmodeller Trafitec 29. november 2011

Emner

• ’Deskriptiv’ modellering

• Modellering af hastighed og uheld

• Disaggregeret modellering, trafikanten i centrum

• Vejtypemodellering, vejtypen i centrum

• Tidsseriemodellering, det aggregerede antal uheld pr. tidsenhed er i centrum

Uheldsmodeller Tove Hels © DTU Transport

’Deskriptiv’ modellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

1 Jan 2003

1 Jan 2004

1 Jan 2005

1 Jan 2006

1 Jan 2007

1 Jan 2008

1 Jan 2009

1 Jan 2010

studyperiod

speed limit raised

demerit point system introduced

beforeperiod initial

period

first afterperiod second after

period

time

130 km/t på motorvejene

’Deskriptiv’ modellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

Model Variable Value Estimate Significance Y: mean speed (km/h)

X:

intercept 111.84 P<0.0001

road type

110-road: 5.72 P<0.0001 130-road: 6.70

Cph-road: ref.

month 0.04 P<0.0001

season

winter: ref. P<0.0001 spring: 1.76

summer: 1.16 autumn: 1.05

period + (road type * period)

110 road before: ref. P<0.0001 (period) P<0.0001 (road type* period)

110 road initial: -5.27 110 road after 1: -4.23 110 road after 2: -4.56

130 road before: ref. 130 road initial: -1.19 130 road after 1: -0.45 130 road after 2: -0.35

Cph road before: ref. Cph road initial: -4.37 Cph road after 1: -3.54 Cph road after 2: -4.52

F-value= 545.56, R-square= 0.97, N=275.

Deskriptiv modellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

Hastighedsudvikling på 110 motorveje 130 motorveje

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

01-0

1-20

02

30-0

6-20

02

27-1

2-20

02

25-0

6-20

03

22-1

2-20

03

19-0

6-20

04

16-1

2-20

04

14-0

6-20

05

11-1

2-20

05

09-0

6-20

06

06-1

2-20

06

04-0

6-20

07

01-1

2-20

07

29-0

5-20

08

25-1

1-20

08

24-0

5-20

09

20-1

1-20

09

Mea

n sp

eed

(km

/h)

Time

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

01-0

1-20

02

30-0

6-20

02

27-1

2-20

02

25-0

6-20

03

22-1

2-20

03

19-0

6-20

04

16-1

2-20

04

14-0

6-20

05

11-1

2-20

05

09-0

6-20

06

06-1

2-20

06

04-0

6-20

07

01-1

2-20

07

29-0

5-20

08

25-1

1-20

08

24-0

5-20

09

20-1

1-20

09

Mea

n sp

eed

(km

/h)

Time

før initial efter1 efter2 før initial efter1 efter2

Hastighed-uheld modellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

Hastighed-uheld modellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

Exponent in the power model Road type Variables Exponent from

Elvik (2009) Exponent without a control group

Exponent with a control group

130 motorways

PIA-1 1.6 -31.2 -71.5 PIA-2 28.0 -79.3 Injuries-1 2.2 -15.7 -61.2 Injuries-2 32.9 -83.3

110 motorways

PIA-1 1.6 10.5 6.2 PIA-2 10.2 2.4 Injuries-1 2.2 18.1 6.7 Injuries-2 -1.5 5.9

x

før

efter

før

efter

hastighedhastighed

uhelduheld

)(=

Potensmodellen

Hastighed-uheld modellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

Antal uheld

Vejrlig

Uheldsrisiko

Hastighed Trafikarbejde

Politikontrol

+

÷

+ +

+

÷

÷

+

÷

Uheldsmodellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

WP1Variables for accidents modelling

WP2Road user attitudes and

behaviour

WP4Assessing the value of accident

consequences

WP3Accidents modelling

WP5Future traffic safety policies

WP0Management

IMPROSA

Uheldsmodellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

IMPROSA

• Disaggregeret modellering, trafikanten i centrum

• Vejtypemodellering, vejtypen i centrum

• Aggregeret modellering (tidsserier), det aggregerede antal uheld pr. tidsenhed er i centrum

Uheldsmodellering unikke data

• Uheldsdata • politiregistrerede uheld • skadestuedata - Odense • Landpatientregistret

• Transportvaneundersøgelsen - eksponeringsdata

• Socioøkonomiske og demografiske data på individniveau (Danmarks Statistik)

Uheldsmodellering

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Uheldsmodeller

Aggregeret modellering

Disaggregeret modellering

Eksponerings- og risikotendenser som funktion af samfundstendenser: • brændstofpriser, BNP, billetpriser til kollektiv trafik,… • længde og kvalitet af vejnettet • større ændringer i lovgivning og politikontrol

Eksponerings- og risikotendenser som funktion af individuelle variable: • trafikantadfærd (acceptans af risiko, hastighedsvalg, biltypevalg, etc.) • trafikantens alder, erfaring, uddannelse, etc.

Trafikmængde

Vejtype Predikteret antal uheld

Vejtypemodellering

Andet

Tove Hels © DTU Transport Sociale Karakteristika

Tove Hels, ths@transport.dtu.dk DTU Transport

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