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Prof. Kevin Chika Urama FAAS

Senior Director, African Development Institute, African Development Bank Group.

E-mail : k.urama@afdb.org

ABSTRACT

As countries turn the corner on COVID-19 daily confirmed

cases and death rates, the need for strategic re-opening of eco-

nomic activities become imminent. This opinion paper, based

on policy dialogues held under the auspices of the African

Development Institute’s Global Community of Practice (G-

CoP) established to harness and synthesize knowledge and

experiences globally to inform policy responses to COVID-

19 pandemic in Africa, argues that COVID-19 presents a

unique opportunity for Africa to re-think its development pol-

icies. It presents policy options to help African countries to

build back better - more inclusive, equitable and sustainable

economies post-COVID-19. Countries are encouraged to fol-

low the science and prioritize polices that deliver mutual ben-

efits and co-benefits for social, economic, and environmental

resilience – building back better.

At the national level, recommended policy options include

scaling investments in testing, contact tracing and isolation of

SARS-CoV-2 Carriers especially at key ports of entry; imple-

menting social distancing, wearing masks in public, personal

hygiene; and investing in strategic communication to build

public and private trust in the science and policies on COVID-

19. Other national level polices recommended include incen-

tivizing proactive labor market policies to protect workers and

their jobs; investment in digitization of key economic sectors

(agriculture, health and education); and scaling investments

in one health infrastructure, clean technologies and research

for development. To succeed, countries should enact polices

to enhance proactive public - private sector participation as

well as inter-sectoral and inter-ministerial coordination at na-

tional, regional and continental levels.

At the regional level, there is need for accelerated investments

in the domestication and implementation of the African De-

velopment Bank Group’s Hi-5s Strategies and the African

Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTA).

There is need for a Marshal Plan on Inclusive Health in Africa

and the establishment of an African Phenome Centre to facil-

itate disease profiling, research, and enhanced precision pub-

lic health care services in Africa. Increasing investments in

Africa-led institutions such as Centers for Disease Control

(CDCs) and other policy research institutions is a key to pre-

paring Africa’s readiness for future exogenous shocks such as

COVID-19. Finally, there is need for structured debt relief

and targeted debt forgiveness to mitigate the economic

hardships caused by the pandemic in African countries. While

short-term debt moratoriums are helpful, considering the

massive impact of the pandemic on African countries’ already

constrained fiscal balances before COVID-19, debt

forgiveness would be ideal.

There is no magic bullet or one-size-fits all policy for mitigat-

ing the effects of COVID-19 on African economies or indeed

any other policy challenge facing the continent. Decisionmak-

ers need to follow the science and carefully consider the local

social, economic, environmental and political realities for in-

formed decision-making. To build resilient economies, it is

crucial to consider implications of each policy action on eco-

nomic, social and environmental goals today and tomorrow.

This can be achieved through effective cost-benefit and trade-

off analyses to determine the potency, positive and negative

multiplier effects (benefits, co-benefits and negative external-

ities) of each policy option across sectors within local and na-

tional contexts. Decisionmakers are encouraged to engage lo-

cal experts to inform policy design and implementation for

each community based on local realities not politics.

Key words: COVID-19; Economic Resilience, Building back

Better.

BUILDING BACK BETTER

Policies for Building Resilient Economies in Post-COVID-19 Africa

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

The year 2020 began with what seemed to be a brief

stint of nature fighting back when humans crossed

boundaries. For the past 40 years or more, many

Environmental Economists have highlighted the

risks associated with the current geological age of

the “Anthropocene” – one in which human activity

has become the dominant influence on climate and

the environment.

The scientific literature is now awash with publica-

tions on the impacts of climate change, biodiversity

loss, environmental degradation and other forms of

anthropogenic impacts on nature, as well as the

self-destructive impacts of social inequalities, pov-

erty and deprivation that characterize human socie-

ties everywhere. Beyond the science, these negative

impacts have all too often been evident in human

societies over time. Millions of life forms and treas-

ured assets (economic, social and natural capital)

worth billions of US dollars are lost annually. Inci-

dences of increasing extreme climate events (cy-

clones, wild fires, melting of the glacier that holds

the poles of the earth together, floods, droughts, in-

creased temperatures and heat waves, and the grow-

ing sea level rise), other forms of pollution and en-

vironmental degradation (depletion in air quality,

plastic litter in oceans – stifling the blue economy,

etc.,), and heightened social fragilities (hunger pan-

demics, social insecurity and growing terrorism)

that social inequities and environmental degrada-

tion engender, have become regular news every-

where.

However, the incidence of COVID-19 has been

very different. Like other supranational challenges

such as climate change, COVID-19 is a global

commons problem. However, unlike climate

change, the impacts of COVID-19 have been more

urgent, more globalized. Its immediate devastating

impacts on global, regional and national health sys-

tems, economies, trade, cultures, societies, and sys-

tems of cooperation has been unprecedented.

It has impacted all cultures, races, and economies

with no respect to social, economic, or political sta-

tus or class- calling into question the contemporary

systems of interaction and cooperation in human

societies. It has fully demonstrated our common hu-

manity and the inherent inequities within and be-

tween countries more than ever before. It has also

called into question, the relevance and sufficiency

of the current social, economic and environmental

governance systems in very fundamental ways.

This is a crisis that Africa and the world must not

allow to waste. As aptly noted by His excellency

President Emmanuel Macron, “This period will

have taught us a lot. Many certainties and convic-

tions will be swept away. Many things that we

thought were impossible are happening. The day

after when we have won, it will not be a return to

the day before, we will be stronger morally. We will

draw the consequences, all the consequences.”i

“We are all embarking on the unthinkable…. We all

face the profound need to invent something new,

because that is all we can do… But it will change

the nature of globalisation, with which we have

lived for the past 40 years…”ii.

Furthermore, the UN Secretary-General António

Guterres noted that: “Everything we do during and

after this crisis must be with a strong focus on

building more equal, inclusive and sustainable

economies and societies that are more resilient in

the face of pandemics, climate change, and the

many other global challenges we face - recovery

from the COVID-19 crisis must lead to a different

economy.”iii

This call is even more necessary in Africa and the

developing countries than anywhere else in the

world today. Compared to its population and natu-

ral capital endowments, Africa has not benefited

enough from the existing global order before

COVID-19.

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

Africa hosts 30% of the world’s mineral reserves

and accounts for more than 20 percent of global an-

nual production of five key minerals: 80 percent

platinum, 77 percent cobalt, 51 percent manganese,

46 percent of diamonds, 39 percent chromium, and

22 percent of goldiv. Africa also possesses 60 per-

cent of world’s arable land, 13 percent of the global

population and is the most youthful continent with

about 60 percent of its population under the age of

25 as well as abundant energy potentials.

Despite this wealth in natural capital endowments,

African economies remain among the least devel-

oped countries in the world with the size of econo-

mies amongst the lowest compared to other regions

(Figure 1).

The Caribbean and Small Island States, Sub-Sa-

haran Africa, Central Europe, and the Baltics re-

gions rank among the least developed economies

when measured in terms of the size of Gross Do-

mestic Product (GDP), each below 2 trillion US $

as at 2018. This is much less than the fiscal stimulus

that has been doled out by the United States of

America to bolster its economy from the impacts of

COVID-19.

In terms of environmental impacts of development,

Africa receives an unfair share of the impacts com-

pared to its contributions to global environmental

change. It is, therefore, a win-win strategy for Af-

rica to heed the call to build more inclusive, equita-

ble and sustainable economies and societies post-

COVID-19.

BUILDING BACK BETTER IN THE

AFRICAN CONTEXT

The impacts of COVID-19 in terms of morbidities

and mortalities remain a significant concern in

many countries and second waves of infections are

being experienced in countries that are rapidly reo-

pening their economies. However, Scientists now

have a better understanding of the epidemiology of

the virus and its transmission mechanisms. There is

also increasing hope for a vaccine and therapeutic

cure for COVID-19 possibly in 2021 or 2022. The

impacts of lockdown have proven to be significant

and unequal among communities and countries –

sparking significant political considerations. Coun-

tries and businesses are increasingly turning their

attention to re-opening strategies.

In Africa, several demographic and natural factors

– especially the youthful population of the conti-

nent, the human settlement patterns in rural com-

munities, and other preconditions have helped to

stave off the confirmed cases and mortality rates

due to COVID-19 so far.

Compared to the rest of the world, African coun-

tries have reported lower rates of confirmed cases

and deaths. As at 29 August 2020, South Africa

which ranked 5th in the world with regard to con-

firmed COVID-19 cases (629,961), coming after

Peru (629,961), Russia (982,573); India

(3,542,733); Brazil (3,846,153) and United States

of America (5,961,094), is the only African country

that falls within the top 20 countries in terms of

confirmed COVID-19 casesv (Figure 2). Available

data suggest that the confirmed cases of COVID-19

and mortalities due to the disease appear to have

peaked in July 2020 and is now trending down-

wards (Figure 3). A 7-day average analyses of the

confirmed cases and deaths in Africa show down-

ward trends (Figure 4). Even in South Africa, which

has reported more than half of the reported cumu-

lative positive cases in Africa, the 7-day average

analyses by WHO shows that confirmed cases and

number of deaths appear to have peaked in July

2020 (Figure 5). As at 29 August 2020, South Af-

rica recorded 241 daily deaths from COVID-19,

Morocco (41), Egypt (20) and Algeria (13) with the

rest of the continent recording less than 10 deaths

per day.

Some argue that this may be due to lack of testing

capacity in Africa and inability to carry out autop-

sies, but there are no cases of unusual reports of

COVID-19 related illness and deaths in most rural

communities of the continent. Others argue that this

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

is due to the youthful population and dispersed set-

tlement patterns in rural communities of the conti-

nent. Whichever perspective one may hold, there

appears to be a growing consensus that as Africa

has started to turn the corner on COVID-19, atten-

tion is now turning to re-opening economies.

As Africa begin to turn the corner on COVID-19

and Governments start to consider policies for

building back better, there is need to address the so-

cial, economic and environment trade-offs in

COVID-19 impacts. While the COVID-19 lock-

down has led to gains in environmental sustainabil-

ity indicators – reduced CO2 emissions, improved

air quality, reduced plastics littering, etc., it has also

decimated economies and livelihoods, and dispro-

portionately impacted the poorer segments of soci-

ety. The International Energy Agency estimates

that global GHG emissions might fall by 8% or 2.6

GtCO2 in 2020vi. By comparison; annual CO2

emissions fell by an average of 4% during the Sec-

ond World War (1939 – 45), 3% during the 1991–

92 recession, 1% during the 1980–81 energy crisis,

and 1% during the 2009 global financial crisis.

UNEP estimates that global GHG emissions must

fall by 7.6% every year from 2020 to 2030 to keep

temperature increases to less than 1.5°Cvii. So, one

may argue that the COVID-19 lockdown has deliv-

ered some environmental sustain-ability gains.

But there is a trade-off. The halt in economic activ-

ities has caused significant harm to the global and

national economies, livelihoods, and societies eve-

rywhere. Countries are experiencing deeper reces-

sion than in recorded history, the lockdowns have

caused hunger pandemics and pushed millions into

poverty. Unemployment rates in many countries is

higher than in record history and many Central

Banks and Finance Ministries in Africa have lim-

ited fiscal and monetary space / headroom to inter-

vene decisively with rapid burst of fiscal stimulus

or quantitative easing than ever seen before. The

inflationary impacts of the massive easing of fiscal

and monetary policy to provide social safety nets

for households and economies are yet to fully un-

fold. The African Development Bank Groupviii es-

timates that Africa could suffer GDP losses in 2020

between $145.5 billion (baseline) and $189.7 bil-

lion (worst case), from the pre-COVID–19 esti-

mated GDP of $2.59 trillion for 2020.

Some countries have seen a sudden uptick in infla-

tion of up to 5%, and expansionary fiscal spending

could double by the end of 2020.

Remittances and foreign direct investment could

plunge significantly. Between 28.2 and 49.2 mil-

lion more Africans could be pushed into extreme

poverty and an estimated 25 - 30 million jobs could

be lost by the end of 2020. The opportunity costs of

the environmental gains in terms of impacts on eco-

nomic and social welfare of people are therefore too

severe for countries to bear.

Building back better would require a careful but

balanced triangulation of the three pillars of sus-

tainable development: the social, the economic and

the environmental. Framed around the global sus-

tainable development goals, building back better

will lead to more inclusive, efficient, resilient, and

sustainable economies, if and only if, we develop

policies that balance the three objectives. Econo-

mies that leave no one behind. Leaving the poor in

poverty while growing GDP and/or conserving na-

ture is not sustainable development.

Events of the past 40 years of the age of the Anthro-

pocene have shown that social, economic and envi-

ronmental fragilities are mutually re-enforcing. Ac-

tions of one agent and/or within one sector without

proper consideration of the multiplier effects on the

other (including positive and negative externalities)

cannot lead to a sustainable solution. Just like

greenhouse gas emissions that circulate freely in

the atmosphere and warms the global climate for all

irrespective of the geographical boundary of the

emitter(s), if there is COVID-19 anywhere, there is

COVID-19 everywhere. Like COVID-19, when

there is fragility anywhere, there is fragility every-

where. Questions of moral and distributive justice,

as well as intersectoral cooperation and coordina-

tion become inevitable in finding a lasting solution.

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

The African Development Institute’s Global Com-

munity of Practice (G-CoP) inaugural policy dia-

logue on macro-economic policy responses to

COVID-19 in Africa hosted on 29 April 2020

called for African countries to aim, not just to build

back their economies post COVID-19, but to plan

to build back better. Two subsequent events that fo-

cused on food systems and inclusive health empha-

sized the same position. Participants emphasized

that there is need for Africa to build more resilient

economies that are inclusive and efficient to ensure

Africa is able to absorb future exogenous shocks,

adapt itself to maintain its core functions during

such shocks and rapidly transform itself to remain

competitive aftershocks. Some key policy recom-

mendations are highlighted in the subsequent sec-

tion of this paper.

POLICY CONSIDERATIONS FOR BUILDING BACK BETTER IN POST COVID-19 AFRICA

National Level Policies for Reopening Eco-

nomic Activities

To build back better, Countries must first ensure

that the guidelines they follow for re-opening their

economy are informed by science, not politics.

Countries

need to carefully follow the guidelines provided by

the Centers for Disease Control (CDCs) based the

epidemiology of the disease within specific local

contexts (Table 1).

Table 1: Sample Guidelines for Reopening Economic Activities1

Gating Criteria Threshold to Enter Phase 1 Threshold to Enter Phase 2 Threshold to Enter Phase 3

Decreases in

newly identified

COVID-19 cases

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero incidence) of documented

cases over a 14-day period

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero incidence) of documented

cases for at least 14 days after

entering Phase 1

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero incidence) of documented

cases for at least 14 days after

entering Phase 2

Decreases in

emergency de-

partment (ED)

and/or outpatient

visits for COVID-

like illness (CLI)

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero incidence) of CLI syndromic

cases reported over a 14-day pe-

riod

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero incidence) of CLI syn-

dromic cases reported for at

least 14 days after entering

Phase 1

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero incidence) of CLI syn-

dromic cases reported for at

least an additional 14 days after

entering Phase 2

Decreases in per-

centage of SARS-

CoV-2 tests posi-

tive

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero percent) of positive tests as a

percentage of total tests over a

14-day period (flat or increasing

volume of tests)

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero percent) of positive tests

as a percentage of total tests

for 14 days after entering

Phase 1 (flat or increasing vol-

ume of tests)

Downward trajectory (or near-

zero percent) of positive tests as

a percentage of total tests for at

least 14 days after entering

Phase 2 (flat or increasing vol-

ume of tests)

Treat all patients

without crisis care

Jurisdiction inpatient & ICU beds

<80% full; Staff shortage in last

week = no; PPE supplies adequate

for >4 days

Jurisdiction inpatient & ICU

beds <75% full; Staff shortage

in last week = no; PPE sup-

plies adequate for >4 days

Jurisdiction inpatient & ICU

beds <70% full; Staff shortage

in last week = no; PPE supplies

adequate for >4 days

Robust testing

program

Test availability such that per-

centage of positive tests is ≤20%

for 14 days Median time from test

order to result is ≤4 days

Test availability such that per-

centage of positive tests is

≤15% for 14 days Median

time from test order to result is

≤3 days

Test availability such that the

percentage of positive tests is

≤10% for 14 days Median time

from test order to result is ≤2

days

1 Adapted from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC).

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

Governments should work with local experts (Epi-

demiologist) to produce guidelines that are adapted

to their local contexts to inform the thresholds for a

phased approach to reopening economies based on

local contexts. Such guidelines should include,

sustained decline in newly identified COVID-19

cases; decreases in emergency department (ED)

and/or outpatient visits for COVID-like illness

(CLI); decreases in percentage of SARS-CoV-2

tests positive cases; demonstrated ability to treat all

patients without crisis care; and capacity to imple-

ment a robust testing program.

To successfully re-open and rebuild economies, the

following interrelated immediate-term policies are

required:

(a) Follow the science

Rely on epidemiological data on COVID-19 inci-

dences in the population for decision-making re-

garding reopening sequences and rates. Ensure

that the preconditions set by the Centre for Disease

Control (CDCs) are met before re-opening the

economy. In this regard, evidence from WHO does

suggest that based on 7-day average analyses,

most African countries appear to have turned the

corner as the incidences of confirmed cases and

deaths are now trending downwards. But this

should be a reason for continued compliance with

the guidelines based on science not complacency.

Evidence from other countries demonstrate that

there is high risk of resurgence when economies

reopen.

(b) Invest in testing, contact tracing and

isolation

To successfully reopen, countries need to scale up

the capacity for testing, contact tracing and isola-

tion of COVID patients. Testing regimes should be

informed by local realities, but two key areas for

prioritized testing include: (i) testing at key ports

of entry such as international and local airports,

and (ii) community testing where there are high in-

cidences of COVID-19. Testing at ports of entry is

encouraged to reduce importation and inter-city

spread of the virus.

In communities where there are hot spots of posi-

tive cases, community testing to identify and iso-

late asymptomatic careers who could become su-

per spreaders of the virus in communities, schools

and workplaces is encouraged. The current strat-

egy based on identifying symptoms of arrivals

such as heightened temperatures is necessary but

not enough to identify and isolate potential spread-

ers of the disease. It is now known that over 40%

of the SARS-CoV-2 carriers are asymptomatic and

over 50% of the transmission are caused by

asymptomatic carriers. Community testing is

therefore crucial to identify and isolate asympto-

matic carriers to break the cycle of SARS-CoV-2

in communities.

(c) Implement social distancing, wearing masks

in public and personal hygiene

Frequent hand washing, wearing face masks when

in public and maintaining at least 6 feet (about 2

meter) distance from each other always are crucial.

Personal hygiene, water and sanitation are not just

good for COVID-19 but for a lot of communicable

diseases that plague Africa. Implementing social

distancing and personal hygiene saves lives. This is

a moral and social responsibility that we owe each

other to defeat the virus. To be effective, govern-

ments and decisionmakers should invest in the re-

quired infrastructure for water and sanitation and

other facilities to incentivize adoption and imple-

mentation of the policy.

(d) Communication and trust building

Countries should develop effective information

sharing and communication strategies based on sci-

ence to enhance the trust between society, private

sector, and governments. The politicization of

COVID-19 response policies has led to waning

confidence in the public policy responses being im-

plemented by governments. There is need for mass

communication strategies using community cham-

pions, community leaders and trusted institutions to

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

build trust in science and in the policies proposed

to contain the virus.

(e) Incentivize proactive labor market policies

to protect workers and their jobs

Decisionmakers should encourage flexible working

arrangements, retrofitting of offices to ensure effec-

tive social distancing and ventilation. Teleworking

and different variants of working from home could

yield several co-benefits to social, economic and

environmental sustainability in a post-COVID-19

world. Workers could benefit from better work-live

balance and savings in costs of transportation.

Companies could achieve significant savings in

capital expenditure as large high-end city offices

may no longer be required. The environment bene-

fits in terms on reduced CO2 emissions and im-

proved air quality achieved during the COVID-19

lockdown could be sustained, at least in part if a

hybrid working system is adopted for longer. One

major challenge in implementing this policy in Af-

rica is the digital divide and lack of access to data

and affordability of hardware. Governments and

private companies should consider re-investing the

cost savings from teleworking to provide mobile

data to workers.

(f) Digitization of economic activities

COVID-19 has helped to fast track the transition to

the fourth industrial revolution technologies. Digi-

tal access has become essential for participation in

economic and social activities across sectors. Deci-

sionmakers are encouraged to prioritize invest-

ments in digitization of economic activities in pri-

ority sectors, including foods systems and agricul-

tural value chains, education systems (e-learning),

public health care systems (such as telemedicine,

heath data systems, and mobile health delivery)

through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). If there

is one take home message from COVID-19, it is the

fact that the digital economy is the new normal.

Only those with hardware and reliable and afforda-

ble internet connections will benefit for the post-

COVID-19 economy. Digitization also delivers key

cost savings and benefits for environmental sustain-

ability through reduced transportation and unneces-

sary air travel. It could also lead to decongestion in

cities as workers will become more willing to live

in rural communities and work from home – driving

greater social inclusion, equity and work-life bal-

ance. This calls for strategic investments in digiti-

zation of the key sectors of every nation’s economy

and building the physical infrastructure and human

capacity for digital economies in all sectors, espe-

cially in the critical sectors: health, agriculture and

education.

(g) Prioritize investments in inclusive one health

infrastructure

This includes investments in food systems, water

and sanitation facilities, and public health care for

all, especially to the vulnerable households in com-

munities where lockdown policies are needed. Also

promote community-based health care to augment

the traditional hospitals. Food production and dis-

tribution within communities should be classified

as essential services. Governments should assist

small holder farmers with personal protective

equipment such as masks and hand sanitizers. In-

vesting in health systems needs to be re-conceptu-

alized as investing in improving the human experi-

ence from conception to the grave (all keys must

play harmoniously for better health and wellbeing).

This is a step-change from the consumptive health

systems which focuses on building hospitals to

manage disease conditions.

(h) Private sector participation

To succeed, countries need to implement policies

that eases the business environment to allow the

private sector to proactively participate in rebuild-

ing the economies. The limited fiscal space in Af-

rica means that countries have limited headroom to

act decisively at the pace and scale required to rap-

idly rebuild economies. Policies that encourage so-

cial innovations and public-private sector participa-

tion would be a win-win for Africa. This could help

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

create jobs and unleash the innovative talent of Af-

rican youths. Macro-economic policies such as

small business tax deferrals could be helpful. Po-

lices that target bailouts to large business such as

airline bailouts, assisted bankruptcy for large com-

panies, and large business tax deferrals are known

to have negative externalities on environmental

sustainability.

(i) Clean Technology Investments

To drive the transition to low carbon economies,

countries should prioritize clean technical invest-

ments in key sectors, such as (i) clean energy infra-

structure; (ii) connectivity infrastructure such as

mass transit systems, (iii) e-education; and (iv)

smart quality health care infrastructure.

(j) Investments in Research and Development

Knowledge dependence have been at the roots of

Africa’s underdevelopment for decades. With very

low investments in research for development, Afri-

can countries register low patents and continue to

rely on foreign knowledge for its policies and de-

velopment programs. Most Think Tanks in Africa

are faced with sustainability challenges as they

largely depend on research grants from Donors of-

ten at the expense of undertaking relevant research

that can inform context-relevant policymaking in

Africa. Investments in R & D spending and capac-

ity development will deliver significant benefits to

building resilience in Africa.

(k) Intersectoral coordination and collaboration

at the national and regional scales will be

critical for sustainable policy design and im-

plementation

While COVID-19 is primarily a health pandemic,

the transmission channels through which it impacts

economies and citizens are multi-sectoral, espe-

cially through food systems and food value chains,

water and sanitation services, trade and industry.

Effective collaboration among the relevant Minis-

tries including health, agriculture, food and live-

stock, tourism, national planning, finance and more

is therefore crucial in designing policies to build

back better.

Polices for Regional and Global Deci-

sionmakers

(a) Invest in domestication and implementation

of the African Development Bank’s Hi-5s

Strategies

Before COVID-19, the United Nations Develop-

ment Program had released a report which con-

firmed that if Africa implements the High-5s, we

would have achieved over 90% of the global Sus-

tainable Development Goals and the agenda 2063 –

the Africa We Want. The Hi-5s strategies: to light

up and power Africa, feed Africa, industrialize Af-

rica, integrate Africa and improve the quality of life

for Africans, present focused sector-based strate-

gies for building inclusive, resilient and sustainable

economies before, during and after COVID-19.

Without universal access to electricity, Africans

cannot participate in the new digital economy

which has become the new normal in the post-

COVID-19 world. Feeding Africa is a pre-condi-

tion for inclusive health and wellness for Africans

to be able to build the anti-bodies and immunities

required to withstand COVID-19. Rapid industrial-

ization is required to ensure self-sufficiency in

basic necessaries such as production of personal

protective equipment (PPEs), medical supplies,

pharmaceuticals, food and other production. Accel-

erated integration of the continent provides unique

opportunities for building national, regional and

continental value chains in all sectors to reduce the

vulnerabilities associated with over dependence on

global value chains. Ultimately the goal of every

policy is to improve the quality of lives for Afri-

cans. Creating jobs for African youths; invest in ed-

ucation, science, technology and mathematics; ac-

celerate gender empowerment; and investments in

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Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

quality health infrastructure for Africa, are all nec-

essary pre-conditions for an inclusive and resilient

development in Africa.

Like other sound policies and strategies in Africa,

COVID-19 pandemic is a call for accelerated im-

plementation of the Hi-5s at national, regional and

continental scales.

(b) Accelerate the domestication and implemen-

tation of the Africa Continental Free Trade

Agreement

The sudden closure of boarders and the protection-

ist policies implemented by countries to contain the

COVID-19 virus is a stark reminder of the risk ex-

posures associated with over-reliance on global

value chains. The ACFTA presents a unique oppor-

tunity for Africa to build one of the world’s largest

free trade zone with immense potentials for future

growth. While Africa participates in global value

chains (GVC) development and integration, it is

mostly through upstream production which embod-

ies production of raw materials that are then bene-

ficiated in the importing countriesix. With a few ex-

ceptions, the degree of processing (value addition)

in Africa’s commodity exports remains generally

low and the share of local labor in their value is rel-

atively smallx. Building national and regional value

chains is crucial as they can bring about new forms

of production, technological transfer and develop-

ment, logistical development, labour skills up-

grade, long-term industrial upgrade, job creation,

poverty reduction, inclusive growth and global net-

workingxi. COVID-19 has highlighted the need for

countries and regions to build value chains at na-

tional, regional and continental levels to reduce vul-

nerabilities to exogenous shocks such as fluctua-

tions in global market prices and/or health pandem-

ics. Like the Hi-5s, the ACFTA is already available

for Africa to implement.

(c) Structured debt relief and targeted debt

forgiveness

Short-term debt moratoriums are helpful. However,

considering the massive impact of the pandemic on

countries’ already constrained fiscal balances, debt

forgiveness would be ideal.

(d) A Marshal Plan on Inclusive Health for

Africa

The African Union Commission, the African

Development Bank and the World Health

Organsiation are encouraged to convene a dialogue

to establish a Marshal Plan for Inclusive Health in

Africa, to prepare the continent for future

pandemics after COVID-19.

(e) Establish an African Phenome:

Africa needs to develop its own knowledge, espe-

cially in health profiling and management, and

harness its rich biodiversity to benefit its citizens.

Understanding the interactions between the human

phoneme and genome with the environment is a

sure way to building an inclusive one health sys-

tem for a health population that eats well, lives

well and can withstand future pandemics. This is

necessary for disease profiling, research, and de-

velopment and enhanced precision public health

care services in Africa.

(f) Invest in Africa-led institutions including

regional and national Centers for Disease

Control (CDCs) and other policy research

institutions.

To be resilient, Africa’s health and economic sys-

tems need strengthened absorptive, adaptive, and

transformative capacity in times of both endoge-

nous and exogenous shocks such as COVID-19.

COVID-19 is a pandemic among pandemics in Af-

rica and it is likely not going to be the last. It has

demonstrated that reliance on external institutional

capacities and aid for development is risky. Coun-

tries and regions need to strengthen own capacity

for early warning systems, policy research, gov-

ernance and risk mitigation to secure the welfare

of citizens today and tomorrow. Future economic

headwinds and new health pandemics will come

when it will.

10 | P a g e

Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

The key test of resilience will be the capacity of a

system to absorb shocks, adapt to shocks and trans-

form itself within the broader context to remain

competitive in the new normal after the shock.

POLICY PRIORITIZATION

There is no magic bullet or one-size-fits-all policy

for COVID-19 or indeed any policy challenge fac-

ing the continent. Decisionmakers need to follow

the science and carefully consider the local social,

economic, environmental and political realities for

informed decision-making. To build resilient econ-

omies, it is crucial to consider implications of each

i https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/corona-

virus-who-will-be-winners-and-losers-in-new-world-or-

der#img-1 (accessed 14 April 2020). ii https://www.ft.com/content/3ea8d790-7fd1-11ea-8fdb-

7ec06edeef84 iii https://www.un.org/en/un-coronavirus-communications-

team/launch-report-socio-economic-impact-covid-19 iv United States Geological Survey, (2020). “Mineral Com-

modities Survey 2020” available at https://pubs.usgs.gov/pe-

riodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020.pdf v https://africacovid.opendataforafrica.org/buxtoug/africa-

covid-19-tracker , accessed 30 August vi International Energy Agency, 2020. “Global energy de-

mand to plunge this year as a result of the biggest shock

since the Second World War” available at

https://www.iea.org/news/global-energy-demand-to-plunge-

this-year-as-a-result-of-the-biggest-shock-since-the-second-

world-war vii United Nations Environment Programme, (2019). “Cut

policy action on economic, social and environmen-

tal goals today and

tomorrow. This can be achieved through effective

cost-benefit and trade-off analyses to determine the

potency, positive and negative multiplier effects

(benefits, co-benefits and negative externalities) of

each policy option across sectors within local and

national contexts. Decisionmakers are encouraged

to engage local experts to inform policy design and

implementation for each community based on local

realities, not politics.

global emissions by 7.6 percent every year for next decade

to meet 1.5°C Paris target - UN report” available at

https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-re-

lease/cut-global-emissions-76-percent-every-year-next-dec-

ade-meet-15degc viii African Development Bank Group, (2020). AEO Supple-

ment available at https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/afri-

can-economic-outlook-2020-supplement ix UNIDO, (2015). “Global Value Chains in Africa” availa-

ble at https://www.unido.org/api/opentext/documents/down-

load/9928077/unido-file-9928077 x Deaton A. (1999). "Commodity Prices and Growth in Af-

rica." Journal of Economic Perspectives-Volume 13, Num-

ber 3-Summer 1999-Pages 23-40 xi African Development Bank, (2014). “Global Value Chain

Development and Structural Transformation in Nigeria”

available at https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/up-

loads/afdb/Documents/Publications/AEB_Vol5_Is-

sue_2__2014__AEB_Vol5_Issue_2__2014_.pdf

11 | P a g e

Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

Figure 1: Gross Domestic Product by Regions, 1995 – 2018 (Constant US$ 2010)

Figure 2: Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in to 20 impacted countries as at 29 August 2020v

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tri

llio

ns

(US

$) Middle East & North Africa

North America

Sub-Saharan Africa

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

5,9

61

,094

3,8

46

,153

3,5

42

,733

98

2,5

73

62

9,9

61

62

2,5

51

59

9,8

84

59

1,7

12

43

9,2

86

40

8,0

09

40

1,2

93

37

1,8

16

33

4,9

16

31

3,9

11

30

8,9

25

30

4,9

47

29

5,3

72

26

7,0

64

26

6,8

53

24

2,8

35

Confirmed Cases, 29 August 2020 Confirmed Cases, 28 August 2020 Confirmed Cases 22 Auhust 2020

1 Compiled from the World Bank Development Indicators

12 | P a g e

Building Back Better: Resilient and Inclusive Africa post-COVID-19

Figure 3: COVID-19 Death Rates and Confirmed Daily Deaths in Africa v

Figure 4: Confirmed COVID-19 Daily Cases and Deaths in Africa: – 7 Day moving Averagev

Figure 5: Confirmed COVID-19 Daily Cases and Deaths in South Africa: – 7 Day moving Averagev