uk ageing assets through the spyglass - devex … ageing assets through the spyglass may 2016 g...
TRANSCRIPT
DEVEX Conference 2016
UK Ageing Assets Through
The Spyglass
May 2016
G Forsyth
Subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell
2
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.
Shales: Our use of the term ‘shales’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, par tnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 18 May 2016. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Shell April 2016
What do we mean by
“Through the Spyglass”?
• Late life field Assets – very few remaining brownfield development opportunities
No margin for error
• Need to maximise Value: Cash Flow Positive – How?
• Value of delaying CoP vs. Kick off Decommissioning Projects
• Under scrutiny from joint ventures & governmental bodies
3
Optimise Cost
Enhanced Recovery & Performance
UK Operate Legacy Strategy
4
Main Lessons learned:
1- Projects are sufficiently robust and adhere to FEL process
2- Ensure economic stability promised on 3rd party business volumes - tariff
Varg
Rev (Existing)
Maria Horst
(Existing well)
Armada Hub AHID Phase 8
NW Seymour
(Existing)
Maria Terrace
(Existing well)
Maria Terrace
Infill/STGaupe
(Existing)
Seymour Horst
Prospect NW
Seymour
Infill
Lomond Hub Bridge Linked Platform
Erskine
(Existing)
Lomond
BLP
Columbus
Arran
Armada Hub Example
Excellent to Outstanding Recovery vs FDP
Developments Series of low side outcomes
5
1997 ¦ 1ST Production Armada Fields
2002/3 ¦ SWS & Add Armada Wells 1st Prod
Compressor Rewheleed
2006 ¦ NWS-14 1st Prod
2008 ¦ Maria 1st Prod
2011 ¦ NWS-15 1st Prod
2012 ¦ Gaupe Field Tieback
• 2009 ¦ FEL Flotel Campaign
• Rev Field 3rd Party tieback
2013 ¦ Varg Gas Export project (Through Rev)
6
UK Operate
How to excel in current environment?
• Review Operating Unit Cost
• Highly Focused Team
• Monitor Performance & Value
Created an overall sense of asset purpose and
ownership along with an efficient, cost conscious and
value driven organisation
UK Operate Asset Focused Areas
• New Operating Model Strategy
– Highly focused and integrated asset team – UOC reduced
– Clear asset targets and KPIs
– Review of assurance, guidelines and standards tailored for UK Operate
• Brownfield Projects:
– Portfolio reassessment including review under recent TAX changes
– Portfolio review for near-field, 3rd party tie-backs and Infill opportunities
– Everest MLC2 Compressor System Rewheeled - additional volumes
Promised for 2015 – Delivered
– Erskine Future brownfield project – beyond 2020
– Top side Brownfield mods to delay technical CoP
• Intensive Bullheading Foamer Injection Trials in Armada Hub Subsea Wells
7
UK Operate Asset Focused Areas
• Risk-Reward strategy with service companies for complex well
interventions
• Review of all cash flow positive well intervention opportunities
• Back to basis modelling
• Mind set change: From growth to late life field & abandonment phase
– Sound integrated Asset & Decommissioning project teams
• Synchronised support between asset economics and technical limits –
Right time to kick off
8
UK Operate 2013-2015
Portfolio strategy reviews outcome
• Late Life field assets
– Armada Hub Strategy Review 25km
radius – Late 2012 & 2014
– Lomond Hub Strategy Review – 40km
radius – 2013 & 2014
– Everest Strategy Review inc Exploration
Basin study 2014 & 2015
• Opportunities:
• Near field potential
• 3rd EEE Infill
• Potential 3rd Party tie-back options for both
Lomond & Everest
10
Everest - EEE 3rd Infill Opportunity
– Outstanding EEE wells performance since start-up Mar’13
– Possible to tap in Maureen sst - Modelling progressing
– Opportunity to increase EEE area recovery
– Potential in this competitive cost environment to reduce
costs estimates and/or accelerate execution
– Potential to delay COP, hence incremental value could
increase
11
EEE Production
Pipeline
• 6 km
EEE Manifold
• 2 EEE wells
• 1 Flow tie-in
capacity
• Modification of SDU
EEE SSIV Skid
• 1 WYE tie-in
EEE
Umbilical
• 6 km
3rd EEE Infill
LAD
East Everest – Maureen Sands
Jaere
n H
igh
Top Maureen
EEV
3Km
LAF
LAA
3rd Well
EEEFleming F5
linear sand lobe
constrained by
Jaeren High to E
Fleming
RGB Blend Spectral Frequencies(28, 36, 48hz)
Evidence of compartmentalization
between EEV & EEE.
48
2836
Erskine Brownfield Future Development
Project – Erskine Beyond 2020
13
EoL 1 Train
EoL 2 Trains
EoL Sep trains
5. Different Host
3. EoL
4. LoE EPM
1. Status Quo
2. SQ + EPM Investment
New partner - Serica (18%) – Jul 2015
Good performance after necessary campaign investment
Some EoL/LoE options still being assessed
Pipeline Blockage remediation ongoing
New Host?
Intensive Bullheading Foamer Injection trials
Subsea Wells
14
ME OH
Injection(initial start-up)
FlowlineProd.
Choke
Well
bo
re
Xmas Tree
DH CI
Mandrel
Wing
Valve
DHCIVMEG/Foamer
Maria Terrace and Gaupe North
Injection while producing and/or SI
10.9 km
• Initial Objective– Maria flowline deliquification
– Gaupe Production
• Trial Results– Successful on Terrace/ Maria flowline
deliquification
– Flowline accumulated liquids were recovered
Well Intervention Opportunities – Cash
Flow Model
15
Well Background Input Payback Conclusion
Armada Assisted Kick
off
CoS 50% Below 6
months
Supported
Everest Survey &
velocity string
CoS 76% Below 6
months
Supported
Everest Survey & Re-
perf
CoS 50% Below 6
months
Supported
i.e. Armada Hydraulic Frac CoS 70% Above 6
months
Unsupported
• Cash Flow workflow to BP16
Journey From Late Life Operations Into Decommissioning Armada Hub – Technical/Operations limit
16
• Flow assurance uncertainty at
lower rates
• Cooling medium concern with
Compression system on Recycle
• OIW issues
• Weak wells “ok” while no trips –
struggle to reinstate on
production - Foamer required for
kick off
R
a
t
e
Good cyclic wells
performance
Risked
Unrisked-
Technical
Min
Compressor
rate
Time
Top side Brownfield mods to delay
Technical CoP & Improve EUR
• Attend key areas of asset integrity
• Lower compressor suction pressure
• Fuel gas supply options
• Well interventions – success rate (Benchmark report)
• Reinstatement of S/I wells (i.e. LT-02 in Lomond & ET-03 in Everest)
• Reviewed asset sand management strategy
• Intensive Foamer campaign for cyclic/weak wells
• Improve anti-foamer efficiency & OIW issues (CETCO effc)
• Continuous review of operational efficiency – Evaluate improvement win-
win options
17
Asset Transition to Decommissioning
Armada Hub Asses stage completed
RR4 planned for 2017
18
Mature Operations: Maximum Economic Recovery
(MER) Milestone
Pre Cessation of Production: Reduce UOC & Prepare
for Decom
Wells P&A: Overlap phase
MER CoP Milestone
Decommissioning
Hydrocarbon free & Lift Milestones (as needed)
Disposal & Reuse
Topsides & Substructure recycling. Environmental &
Commercial diligence. Site remediation