umts forum activity report 2010-2011

8/12/2019 UMTS Forum Activity Report 2010-2011

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UMTS ForumSummary of Recent Activities 2010-2011

Jean-Pierre BienaimChairman, UMTS Forum

April 2011


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Summary

UMTS Forum focus 2010-2011

3G/3G+/LTE global market

overview

Recent reports and studies- Delivering on the promises ofIMT in C-Band

- Consumer Electronics meetmobile broadband

- Mobile Traffic forecasts 2010-

2020 & UMTSF key messages

Spectrum contributions to ITU,

EC & CEPT

Recent News announcements


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UMTS Forum 2010-2011 key focus areas

Key focus areasSpectrum & Regulation Mobile Broadband/LTE Ecosystem

Advice to industry and administrat ions on 3G/LTE

licensing & regulation

Study of LTE in conjunction with the Digital Home and

Consumer Electronics

Global spectrum and spectrum arrangements

for UMTS/IMT-2000 & IMT-Advanced

Roadmap and competitive benefits for HSPA, LTE and

beyond Global mobile traffic forecasts

Key Growth Markets

Studies and workshops on mobile broadband and

technical choices

Promotion of the use of mobile service allocations and

Digital Dividend

Main activities

Studies, Reports and White papers

Communication and Promotion

Visibility and participation at conferences,

exhibitions, seminars and workshops

Relationships with regulators, administrations,

international media and financial community

Contributions to international organizations (ITU, EC, CEPT/ECC, 3GPP)

Partnerships with international bodies (ETSI, NGMN, GSMA, ICU, COAI, APT, 4GAs)


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Nurturing the mobile broadband ecosystem (1)

Standards support and promotion:The UMTS Forum (UMTSF) provides marketing, technical and spectrum inputs to

standardization bodies (SDOs) such as ITU, CEPT and 3GPP, notably indicating to those

ones the needs of operators, and the benefits of open interfaces

and of globally harmonized

standards and spectrum bands. As an industry forum, UMTSF promotes solut ions defined

by the SDOs, in a way that can be understood by external audiences such as marketingteams, financial analysts, journalists,

UMTSF also provides market knowledge externally to

aid rapid development and uptake of new services and applications.

Some success stories:

-

UMTS Forum became the 1st Market Representation Partner (MRP) in 3GPP (ThirdGeneration Partnership Project)

in 1998, and will be 15 years old by end 2011

- UMTSF was a major contributor for obtaining the 2.6 GHz IMT-2000 extension spectrum

band at World Radiocommunication

Conference 2000 (WRC-00) in Istanbul, now allocated for

LTE, and was instrumental in obtaining Digital Dividend and C-band spectrum for mobile at

WRC-07 in Geneva

- UMTSF traffic and spectrum forecasts were contributing to WRC-07 at ITU-R, and were

integrated in April 2011 as a contribut ion to the next WRC-12 by ITU-R

-

The 750 m 3G/UMTS subscribers milestone will be reached by end May 2011


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Nurturing the mobile broadband ecosystem (2)

Cross-sector organisation:UMTSF has always mediated between the interests of operator and vendor

communities (and also of administrations/regulators until recently), which gives great

credibility to its contributions. For instance we have done a huge amount of work

over the last decade in forecasting data traffic levels as inputs to the ITU, 3GPPand CEPT. Here our cross-sector make-up has given UMTSF a unique industry

position with realistic, carefully-judged and consensual traffic forecasts.

Shaping mobile broadband/LTE ecosystem:

This cross-sector philosophy has renewed relevance today, as mobile evolves

from

a classical ecosystem to a more complex, diverse world. UMTSF offers a

white space, where players in this evolving ecosystem can meet on neutral ground

and share ideas for a low membership fee.

Reports and studies:

UMTSF has published more than 50 reports and studies, of which the most recent

ones give a first global insight of mobile broadband/LTE ecosystem evolution.


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3G/UMTS mobile broadband:

a global mass market Over 900m 3G subscribers (UMTS + EVDO) worldwide

in which almost 750m UMTS subs, including almost 450m HSPA

subs, and over 160m CDMA2000 EV-DO subs.

Over 370 3G/WCDMA networks (inc. 170 in Europe) in 150+ countries...

...in which over 345 HSPA networks,

and more than 100 HSPA+ networks launched

Around 25 UMTS 900 networks launched

And over 20 LTE networks commercially launched


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3G/UMTS Mobile broadband networks

W-CDMA & HSPA map - World


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2G/3G/4G Technologies compared

Source: UMTS Forum


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LTE drivers for Mobile Network Operators

Increase ARPU: with

higher

monthly

caps and DL data rates, MNOs

shouldgenerate

higher

data ARPU

Gain additional

capacity and higher

throughput

Change technology path: CDMA2000 and Mobile WiMAX

operators

areconverging

towards

3GPP LTE

Reduce the data cost structure for operators

already

facing

an explosion inmobile data traffic, especially

owing

to flat-rate or unlimited

packages (this

was thecase for Telia

in Sweden, in particular);

Opt for a completely new network when

the age

and capacity

of the core

mobile networks would

make

expensive

upgrades necessary;

Differentiation from the competition on very

active markets, rather

like

Verizon

(USA), a CDMA EV-DO operator

which

needed

to respond

to competitionfrom 3G+/UMTS (HSPA and HSPA+) Sources: Orange, Idate, UMTS Forum


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A growing TD-LTE Ecosystem

TDD & FDD versions of 3GPP LTE have strong

similarities, and some manufacturers are building

common FDD/TDD chipset platforms

There is a global availability of TDD spectrum: 2.3GHz

was recently allocated for BWA in India

Strong support of TD-LTE from leading mobile

operators, of which China Mobile is a big promoter

(Shanghai World Expo first demos in June 2010),

recently joined by Yota (Russia) and by

Sprint/Clearwire (USA) as well as significant BWA

actors in India


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LTE adopted Business Models

Classical LTE model -

offloading/capacity

requirement: JV Net4Mobility Tele2 / Telenor: expanding

network capacity

Mobile broadband centric solution - Telia Sonera, TelekomAustria, Verizon: offering

high

speed mobile BB services

FWA and substitution of Unbundling Local Loop - VodafoneGermany, O2 Germany: offering

stationary

BB via LTE modems(FWA)

Phasing out DSL via more efficient networks - Deutsche

Telekom: providing

BB services in rural areas / small

cities

Niche services / Targeted B2B2C - WAN for backhaul

solutions/offload

data; solutions for automotive

industry, travel

&transportation,

Wholesale LTE model

for MNOs

and SPs: Lightsquared (USA:LTE/satellite), Yota (Russia), Clearwire (USA): reselling

data traffic

to interested

parties via LTE network; solutions for MNOs

for access

to rural areas and lower

Capex, MVNOs, Service providersSource: Sofrecom


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Recent UMTS Forum Reports and Studies

Delivering on the promises of IMT in C-band: keyfindings on C-band spectrum usage July 2010

From HSPA to LTE & beyond: Recognising the promiseof mobile broadband - July 2010

Two worlds connected: consumer electronics meetsmobile broadband - February 2011

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 February 2011


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Delivering on the promises of IMT in C-band

The 3400-3800 MHz band is the key band in the near futurefor the advent of 4G, with LTE-Advanced as its forefront.The benefits of 4G to customers, citizen and society, will only

materialize if the appropriate frequency channels are availablefor the deployment of 4G systems, i.e. channel bandwidth of 40and up to 100 MHz (Minimum 2x20 MHz for FDD and 40 MHz for TDD. Up to2x50 MHz for FDD and 100MHz for TDD).

Currently, the 3400-3800 MHz band is shared by multiplesystems ranging from Broadband Wireless Access Systems,Fixed Links and satellite services. The UMTS Forum

commissioned a study to identify the current usage of theband and the opportunities to open the band for 4Gnetworks in a representative number of countries in Asia,

Africa and South-America.


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C-band report key findings

The usage of satellite services in the band is clustered geographically as well

as in frequencies. The main satellite deployments occur in the 3600-3800MHzband, in specific countries suffering from heavy rain.

The specific benefits of the C-band for satellite services have drasticallydiminished since WRC-07 with the rise of alternative satellite services in the Ka

and Ku bands due to their improved performance. In effect, the C-band onlyremains attractive for hemispheric or continental satellite services, that is mainlyEarth Stations on board Vessels (ESVs) services for trans-oceanic operations.

Fiber connectivity is increasing around the globe, providing in many countries

an alternative to many satellite services traditionnally

held in the C-band forinternet access. Fiber connectivity is likely to increase speed,

improve reliabilityand reduce the cost of internet access.

Sharing of the 3400-3800 MHz band can be managed between IMT and large

Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) earth stations, but may be challenging whenco-existing with Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), Television Receive-Only(TVRO) and Satellite News Gathering (SNG) devices. These challenges couldseriously hamper the prospect of IMT-Advanced delivering its full benefits in theband.


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Proposals for LTE Advanced in C-band

Based on these decisive findings and its own technical expertise, the UMTS Forumproposes the following guidelines in order to enable the rise of

LTE Advancedservices:

The 3400-3800 MHz should be considered as the key band in order to providemobile broadband 4G services to citizen and society. Minimum channelbandwidth of 40 MHz should be adopted, preferably allowing up to

channelbandwidth of 100 MHz.

Countries and regions should work together in order to agree on

a global, or atleast regional, harmonized band plan for IMT systems in 3400-3800 MHz.

Such international band plan should allow the introduction of IMT systemsindependently in sub-bands 3400-3600 MHz and 3600-3800 MHz, allowingindividual countries to introduce IMT according to their own timeline andrespecting their potential need for continued satellite services

in the band.

Countries should target the total availability of sub-bands (i.e. 3400-3600and/or 3600-3800 MHz) for IMT services. Specifically, countries should assessthe possibility to relocate satellite services in higher bands such as the Ka (17-31GHz) or Ku (12-15 GHz) bands. Sharing of the 3400-3800 MHz band betweensatellite and IMT services will not enable a satisfactory 4G service


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Consumer Electronics meets mobile

broadband : study objectives

This study investigates the relationship of the mobileindustry with Consumer Electronics with a specialfocus on LTE

At the heart of the research were 30 in-depth interviews with playersacross industry segments, value chains and geographies

Fixed, mobile and integrated operators from around the world

Manufacturers of different kinds of CE

Infrastructure and chipset vendors

Other players including auto equipment makers, mediacompanies and regulators

Issues investigated included state of the CE industry and in-homeconnectivity, devices likely to be connected and how, the impact

ofCE devices on the mobile industry, the relative merits of air interfacestandards perceived, as well as the role of regulators.

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Key Findings

1. No doubt CE is becoming connected

Consumer Electronics industry in flux: Connect or Perish

2. CE devices* not main driver for mobile broadband

At least not in short-medium term

3. Mobile broadband enabled devices largely support mobile usage

WiFi

to remain dominant access technology in homes

4. Cloud- and media server-based solutions will coexist

Cloud appears to have more wide-spread momentum currently

5. Business model very much the key barrier to mobile broadbandenabled CE devices on a large scale

Other perceived barriers to ubiquitous mobile broadband include marketfragmentation, LTE chip prices, need of clear value proposition for LTE to be

understood by CE players6. Connected CE Devices worldwide should reach 1 bill ion in 2016

Faster growth than the overall wireless market

North America and Japan are the leading LTE markets in the short

term

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* Other than notebooks and mobile phones


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Mobile Broadband CE Taxonomy

Four majorcategories, with

some applicationsoverlap

Portable devicesmay be used in the

home or in the car

Healthcare devicesmay be usedanywhere

Automotive devicesare dedicated to thecar


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New classes of CE devices connect wirelessly

Though portable devices will represent

the lions share of these billion devices,

more than a third will be designed

primarily for in-home use, such as homerobots, security, or multimedia.

The promise of in-car entertainment and

telematics

will finally be fulfilled by new

generation networks, with more than 200

million cars connected to mobile

broadband networks by 2016

The connected CE device market will be

much more fragmented into vertical

specialties than has been the handsetmarket, with mobile broadband

enabling new classes of devices, such

as connected tablets, augmented reality

games, robots or tele-presence systems.

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There wil l be at least a bill ion consumer electronics devices directly connected to

GSM-family mobile broadband networks by 2016, with good upside potential


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Call for Action: Operators (1)

This research and particularly the interviews carried out across

a wide

range of players very much affirmed the notion that operators need to

stimulate the development of mobile enabled CE, rather than expect much

drive from CE vendors. Hence operators need to regain their pivotal

role in the ecosystem or otherwise the ecosystem may never thrive.

Though clearly traffic is linked to the existence of compelling content and

applications, at the same time the single biggest critical investment is in

the network, without which the content and applications would remaininaccessible.

Clearly, operator walled garden

approaches have failed to muster

consumer enthusiasm, and so if operators wish to regain the initiative, it is

probably by following exactly the opposite tack that they may succeed:becoming agents of openness, or in other words enabling the federation

of devices and content from many different sources.

This approach does not exclude wholesaling of traffic to specialised

MVNOs, on the contrary: being the easiest operator to work with, armedwith the best customer management systems, for a range of MVNOs

can

bring a synergistic range of services to the operators portfolio.


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Call for Action: Operators (2)

At the same time the key question of who pays for the wireless module

demands new collaborative approaches. Modules remain expensive and

manufacturers are reluctant to add the cost into the hardware when

margins are already very thin. An obvious solution could be for operatorsand CE vendors to share the investment risk within the framework

of

service revenue sharing deals. This may also appeal to CE vendors

many of whom are seeking to develop a service revenue business.

In addition CE vendors clearly lack the skills to develop a service business

which poses a further opportunity for operators to carry out roles for

CE vendors beyond connectivity, e.g. technology platform

management, managing parts of the customer experience or acting as a

route to market. Here operators could create packaged offers for

CE

vendors helping them to 'mobilise

their devices.

Operators must be motivated to unlock this opportunity by creating value

for themselves as well as avoid other players seizing the initiative andmoulding

the opportunity which would leave operators in a commoditised

and price competitive space, i.e. the much dreaded dumb pipe scenario.


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MobileMobile TrafficTraffic forecastsforecasts: Main trends (1): Main trends (1)

Mobile voice overtaken by mobile data at 2009, in terms of traffic generatedon mobile networks. Mobile voice traffic growth is expected to remain limited

compared to the explosive growth in data traffic from 2010 to 2020.

Currently mobile data traffic generated by mobile broadband (1) subscribersis taking off. In Nov 2010, one Scandinavian operator indicated that average:

3G smart phone user: 375 MB/month 12 MB/day

3G broadband user (e.g. via HSPA data card): 5 GB/month167 MB/day

LTE consumer (data card usage only) : 15 GB/month 500 MB/day

In the US, one mobile operator announced an average data of 7 GB per month

for a base of 2 million subscribers in July 2010.

Growing number of mobile devices such as tablets, dongles, smartphones

and connected devices(1)

By Mobile Broadband, the UMTS Forum refers to subscriptions and devices using technologies that can offer 3G bitrates (or higher, such as

HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE). In this context, GSM and GPRS are not considered as Mobile Broadband technologies


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MobileMobile TrafficTraffic forecastsforecasts: Main trends (2): Main trends (2)

The LTE ecosystem is developing rapidly as LTE took off in year

2010and LTE-Advanced is planned for 2015 according to time to marketexpectations.

In 2010, the machine-to-machine (M2M) market already represents 53million modules. M2M will continue to grow significantly. However in thefuture, the main contribution for mobile traffic will come from other devices.

Small cells and Femtocells are becoming the solutions of choice forincreasing network capacity.

Social networking has become very important for mobile users andnow represents new consumption patterns and generates significant traffic.

Video has become increasingly important and is the No.1 source ofdata traffic. TV content provision by Internet also generates data traffic onmobile networks.


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TheThe dramaticdramatic

growthgrowth

of dataof data traffictraffic

AT&T traffic

evolutionUK mobile data traffic growth

Source: Ofcom Source: AT&T

Mobile data traffic evolution (TB per million inhabitants per

month) in some European countries

Source: ECC PT1

Daily traffic consumption in Europe

Source: Sandvine


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DriversDrivers (1/2)(1/2)

Main changes compared to 2005 findings:New devices: tablets

& other

connected

devices

Evolutions of the

mobile value chain

Enablers of mobile Internet

2008 2010 2015

Mobile traffic

Networks

Terminals

Appl ications

Tariff plans

HSPA HSPA+ LTE LTE-Advanced

App stores launch App stores growth

iPhone Android smartphones Tablets Connected devices

Unlimited pricing Introduction of tiered pricing Content based pricing?


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Drivers (2/2)

Evolution of the mobile value chain

Source: IDATE / UMTS ForumThe arrival of Internet and PC actors in the mobile sector

Apple with the iPhone

and the AppStore

concept

Google launching the Android Operating System


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Global mobile subscriptions forecasts (including M2M):

Global Base (million) 2010 2015 2020

Europe 1 033 1 222 1 427

Americas 915 1 166 1 437

Asia 2 579 3 825 4 957

Rest of the world 801 1 276 1 863

World 5 328 7 490 9 684

Main hypothesisIn this report, mobile traffic forecasts represent:

The uplink and downl ink traffic for voice and data transported on using l icensed spectrum

Traffic forecasts include the traffic managed by Femtocells

Wi-Fi off loading is not taken into account* nor RFID traffic or any other traffic on unlicensed

frequency bands* Wi-Fi or any type of traffic offloading on unlicensed spectrum relates, by essence, to stationary wireless broadband

access. It implies some usage restrictions/limitations on the quality, mobility and security of the service. As such, Wi-Fi

is a second choice

solution to a primary mobile broadband access. The two access methods (mobile broadband and

stationary wireless broadband) are complementary, not competing.

There will always be applications that work

reasonably well in best effort, while many others will need QoS. This Report clearly focuses on mobile broadband -

that

is, not stationary wireless broadband -

and therefore Wi-Fi traffic was excluded from this Report.

Mobile traffic forecasts 2010Mobile traffic forecasts 2010--2020 (1)2020 (1)


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Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (2)

Total worldwide mobile traffic wil l reach more than 127 EB in 2020,

representing a 33 times increase compared with 2010 figure.

Total mobile traffic (EB per year)

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

2010 2015 2020

Yearly

traffic

in

EB

Europe

AmericasAsia

Rest of the world

World

Source: IDATE


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In 2020, daily traffic per Mobile Broadband subscription [1] in the

representative Western European country will stand at 294 MB as an average

and at 503 MB for dongles only.

Finally, we anticipate total worldwide mobile traffic of 351 EB in 2025

representing a 174% increase compared to 2020.

[1]

According to the model used in this report, users of Mobile Broadband (MBB) subscriptions with high-end smartphones and

dongles will represent 31% of the subscriptions in 2020 and 63% of the mobile traffic

Daily mobile traffic per subscription 2010 2015 2020

Mobile Broadband (MB per day) 10 155 294

Dongles (MB per day) 26.7 265 503



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Significantly, at least 80% of the traffic volume remains generated by users,

leading to large variations of the total mobile traffic both in terms of time and

space variations of traffic.

Future mobile networks must be designed to cope with such variation of

traffic and uneven traffic distribution, while at the same time maintaining a

permanent and extensive geographical coverage in order to provide

continuity of service to customers. LTE is seen as a solution to congestionand saturation network issues in dense areas.

These opposite constraints are some of the most significant future challenges

for operators.

Source: UMTS Forum

From 2010 to 2020, total daily mobile traffic in a representative Western European country

will grow 67 times from 186 TB to

12540 TB.

Total daily mobile traffic 2010 2015 2020

Representative Western European

Country(TB per day)

186 5,098 12,540


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UMTS Forum key Messages

The UMTS Forum believes

strongly

that

all identified IMTspectrum should be made available as soon as possible formobile broadband usage in all countries

At

the forthcoming

World Radiocommunication Conference

(WRC-12), the UMTS Forum will be support ing the adoption of anAgenda Item (AI) for the next WRC in 2016. In particular, we

arearguing

on behalf

of the cellular industry

and related

industries

that

WRC-12 should

open a 4-year study cycle to examine in

detail

the future spectrum requirements for mobile broadband.This in turn

should

lead

to the adoption of an appropriatedecision at WRC-16.

In the UMTS Forum we

dont

want

to prejudge

the outcome

of this

study

cycle. As such, we

cannot

be

specific

about the position it

will

defend

for WRC-16. In any

case the UMTS Forum supportsnot only

the timely availability of spectrum but alsoharmonisation in general, when possible on a global basis.


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Spectrum contributions to ITU, EC & CEPT

Digital Dividend/700MHz band plan in Asia: UMTS Forum hassuccessfully contributed to the definition by the APT/AWF of a band plan forthe Digital Dividend in Asia (ITU Region 3). We promote the importance ofharmonization for the availability of terminals as well as compatibilitybetween regional band plans.

Preparation of WRC-12: with its Mobile Traffic Report 2010-2020, UMTSFis a main contributor to the ITU-R IMT-UPDATE report which details themobile broadband current and expected traffic growth around the world. TheTraffic Report was also an input to CEPT/ECC, as well as to EC SpectrumPolicy Unit.

C-band/3400-3800MHz Harmonization: the C-band study has beensubmitted to several international regulatory groups, including EC andCEPT/ECC, and is also relevant in the context of the WRC 12.

900MHz band: UMTSF engaged discussions with the MIC in Japan in orderto try to achieve harmonization of the Japanese 900 MHz band with theinternational 900MHz band.

L-band/1452-1492MHz: new CEPT/ECC work group on potentialopportunity for mobile broadband in the L-band. UMTSF will examine howthis opportunity is linked to 3GPP, and especially if the definition of specificband aggregation is required in standards.


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PR/external communications

The UMTS Forum continues tostimulate and react to the news agenda

with regular press releases and media

briefings.

Recent topics have included:

3G/UMTS family welcomes its 500

millionth customer

Anatel opens up 2.6GHz for mobile

broadband in Brazil

ITU decision marks 4G milestone

A billion connected devices by2016, predicts UMTS Forum

33x growth in mobile traffic over

next decade, predicts UMTS Forum


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One Billion Connected Devices by 2016 -

Coverage


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Press release issued 22 October 2010at the ITU-R WP5D China meeting

PR statement on LTE-Advanced designation as

4G mobile wireless broadband technology

Supports 3GPP contribution to IMT-Advanced process

As proposed by the 3GPPPartners, LTE-Advanced isthe next iteration in acontinuum of wireless

standardisation at a globallevel that spans almost threedecades.


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For more information

www.umts-forum.org

twitter.com/umtsforum

umts forum activity report 2010-2011

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