Jerzy BartnickiNorwegian

Meteorological Institute

Uncertainty in the future Uncertainty in the future nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea

due to unknown due to unknown meteorological conditionsmeteorological conditions

BackgroundBackground Eutriphication due to nitrogen load is a serious and

expensive problem for the Baltic Sea

Atmospheric part of nitrogen load is 25-30%

In the frame of agreement between HELCOM and EMEP, atmospheric load of nitrogen is calculated every year based on updated emissions and meteorological data

EMEP Unified model is used for calculation of nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea, as well as source receptor matrices

The Source receptor matrix gives the contribution of each of more than 50 emission sources (EMEP countries, ship emissions etc.) to the deposition

What about the future?

Practical Practical problemproblem

Following Gothenburg Protocol and EU NEC Directive, the nitrogen emissions will be reduced in 2010 for most of the sources

How will it affect atmospheric deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea and its sub-regions in 2010?

Which sources will contribute most to the deposition in 2010?

Request from HELCOM to EMEP

What about uncertainty of the prediction? What will be uncertainty due to unknown meteorological conditions?

Simple solutionSimple solution

Compilation of 2010 nitrogen emissions in the model grid system following Gothenburg Protocol and EU NEC Directive (+ 2 additional scenarios)

Runs of EMEP Unified model using meteorological data for: 1996, 1997,1998, 2000

Computation of nitrogen deposition for each of available meteorological year

Computation of source receptor matrices for each of available meteorological year

HELCOM CP’s HELCOM CP’s

DenmarkEstoniaFinlandGermanyLatviaLithuaniaPolandSwedenRussian Federation+Europan Commision

N0N0xx emission sources for 2010 emission sources for 2010

 

Main nitrogen oxides sources in HELCOM

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

EstoniaLatvia

LithuaniaDenmarkSwedenFinland

Baltic SeaPoland

GermanyRussia

Emissions in kt NO2/year

NHNH33 emission sources for 2010 emission sources for 2010

 

Main ammonia sources in HELCOM

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

EstoniaLatvia

LithuaniaDenmark

SwedenFinlandPoland

GermanyRussia

Emissions in kt NH3/year

2010 annual emission maps2010 annual emission maps

Ship NOShip NOxx emissions emissions

EMEP EMEP Unified Unified modelmodel

Eulerian, 170 × 133 grids, Δx=50 km

20 vertical layers up to 10 km

Topography and land use included

Meteorological data every 6 hour (300TB – 1 year)

150 chemical reactions also in clouds

Dry deposition processes

Wet deposition with in cloud and below cloud scavenging

1 year simulation – 2 hours execution time

2010 deposition maps2010 deposition maps

N oxidized N reduced

2010 deposition maps2010 deposition maps

N dry N wet

2010 deposition map – total N2010 deposition map – total N

Catchments and sub-basins Catchments and sub-basins

Depositions to sub-basinsDepositions to sub-basins

Total N deposition - GUB

29,724,6

35,3

45,1

33,7

27,8

05

101520253035404550

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

epo

siti

on

[kt

]

Total N deposition - GUF

15,3

11,9

15,4

17,3

15

9,9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

ep

osit

ion

[kt]

Depositions to sub-basinsDepositions to sub-basins

Total N deposition - BAP

126,2

104,4

136,9 140,4127

110,3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

epo

siti

on

[kt

]

Total N deposition - GUR

11

9,810,9

12,211

8,1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

epo

siti

on

[kt

]

Depositions to sub-basinsDepositions to sub-basinsTotal N deposition - KAT

15,414,4

16,9

19,8

16,617,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

epo

siti

on

[kt

]

Total N deposition - BES

18,917,3

21,6 21,719,9

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

epo

siti

on

[kt

]

Depositions to the Baltic SeaDepositions to the Baltic Sea

Total N deposition - Baltic Sea

216,6

182,4

237256,5

223,1

195,8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1996 1997 1998 2000 MEAN 2002

Year

N d

epo

siti

on

[kt

]

Main contributing sources to Main contributing sources to depositiondeposition

GUB

0

10

20

30

40

FI BAS SE DE PL RU UA GB BY NOS

Contributing sources

Dep

osit

ion

s

GUF

0

5

10

15

20

RU BAS DE PL UA EE FI BY SE GB

Contributing sources

De

po

sit

ion

s

Main contributing sources to Main contributing sources to depositiondeposition

GUR

02468

1012

DE PL BAS UA RU BY LT LV SE GB

Contributing sources

Dep

osit

ion

s

BAP

0

50

100

150

200

250

DE PL BAS SE DK GB UA FR NOS RU

Contributing source

Dep

osit

ion

s

Main contributing sources to Main contributing sources to depositiondeposition

BES

0

20

40

60

80

DE DK GB NL NOS FR PL BAS BE SE

Contributing sources

Dep

osit

ion

s

KAT

0

10

20

30

40

50

DK DE GB NOS BAS FR PL SE NL BE

Contributing sources

Dep

osit

ion

s

Main sources for Main sources for totaltotal nitrogen nitrogen depositiondeposition to the Baltic Sea to the Baltic Sea

BAS

0

100

200

300

400

DE PL BAS DK SE GB RU NOS FR UA

Contributing sources

Dep

osit

ion

s

Uncertainty of the contributionsUncertainty of the contributions

%100minmax

C

CCr

Uncertainty of the contributionsUncertainty of the contributionsto the Baltic Seato the Baltic Sea

Uncertainty reange

40 44

21 2014

4434 34

61

90

0

20

40

60

80

100

DE PL BAS DK SE GB RU NOS FR UA

Contributor

Un

cert

ain

ty r

ang

e [%

]

ConclusionsConclusions More model runs with the same emissions and

different meteorological years necessary to have a better idea about the probability distribution

A longer period than one year is necessary to evaluate the effects of nitrogen emission reductions.

The results of this project had an impact on the plans for the future emission reductions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe