understand the new situation in terms of geopolitics and ... · pdf fileunderstand the new...
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Understand the new situation in terms of geopolitics and geostrategic requires to study the fundaments of history and structures of a country or a situation.
What are the consequences among geopolitics ?
How to explain the raise and the fall of supremacy ?
How to describe the multipolar world of today ?
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consequences
Raise and fall of
supremacy
Structures
history
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• Cycles, stability,
• Ruptures, traumas,
reactions in chain
history
• Uneven development,
open/closed society
• Political regimes
structures
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stabilityNon
stabilitycycles
rupturestraumaReactions
in chain
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Stability
due to natural resources
due to history and culture whose men is the main product
A group, a community, people, territory share common points through history and territory
Geopolitics and geostrategic try to isolate and analyze this data.
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China : the oldest geo historical process of building a nation
Long tradition of history + population brought a feeling of being indestructible
But China always faces a tradition of invasions and wars.
Consequences brings a tradition to be isolated◦ Building of the great wall
◦ Policy of Mao
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An “in between territory”◦ Middle east between Roman empire and Persian
◦ Middle east between Byzance and Arabic empires
◦ Middle east between USRR and USA
◦ Middle east between western and Islamic based values process
Central Asia◦ Between Russia and EU
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This territories are an object of desire between many hegemonies or protections.
This stability/un stability movement bring a configuration always in a move.
Bring a new collection of data that helps to understand the new geopolitics order
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This cycle is a constant among geopolitics
One supremacy collapses another raises
•Rom, UK,
•USRR, US (decline
? May be…)collapse
• India, China
•Saudi Arabia,
Brazil, Iran…. raise
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History of territory faces unexpected ruptures
What is a rupture in geopolitics ?◦ An accident after a long process of maturation
among societies and political systems
◦ Something powerful able to bring a new order
1789 : change of a political and societal order. Consequences in geopolitics : end of monarchies and empires
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1914 : WWI brought a new geopolitical order with the raise of USRR and authoritarism (Italy and Germany)
1989-91 : rupture ? Back to the pre-conditions before WWI ?
2001 : globalization and violence
Rupture doesn’t mean an abolition of stability. Rupture can redefine stability
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Invasion, natural disaster, wars, genocide
A trauma is an element to adopt a certain behavior among countries◦ Russia : trauma of invasion ( Mongols, Napoleon,
Hitler ) explain its geostrategic
◦ Germany : trauma of Reich explain its constant neutrality among conflicts ( Yugoslavia, Iraq )
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They lead to disaster like◦ 1914 : murder of archduke of Austria = failure of
diplomacy= alliances and new geostrategic= war
◦ 1929 : economic crises lead to raise of protectionism and authoritarism = war
◦ 2007 : second intifada in Palestine and question of Jewish colonies in occupied territories = position of US
◦ 2003 : US and Iraq. New center of geopolitics
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•Uneven
development,
open/closed
society
•Political
regimes
structures
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Uneven development
• Immediate needs
•violencepoverty
•Surplus
•exploitationwealth
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Surplus Needs
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Consequences : geopolitics and new geostrategic
New uneven development
New types of conflicts where two kind of development face each other
Africa : Nigerian conflicts,
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• Receptive to foreign influences
• Open to trade, to negotiations
• Can be aggressive (Us in Iraq)open
• Foreign is a threat
• Limited trade
• Policy of isolation (north korea) close