understanding european non-listed real estate funds · concentration at the top in 2015 rank...
TRANSCRIPT
ERES Business Seminar
Brussels, 11 March 2016 INREV Research Team
1
UNDERSTANDING EUROPEAN NON-LISTED REAL ESTATE FUNDS
Introduction
• INREV Research Committee represented here today by:
• Marcus Cieleback, Head of Research - PATRIZIA Immobilien AG
• Maurizio Grilli, Head of Investment Strategy - BNP Paribas Real Estate
• Stephen Ryan, Research Manager - INREV
2
Agenda
• Non-listed real estate industry is maturing
• Investors’ intentions for 2016
• Global Real Estate Fund Index
3
NON-LISTED INDUSTRY IS MATURING
Maurizio Grilli
4
The non-listed real estate industry is maturing
5Source: INREV Vehicles Universe, Funds of Funds
Universe and Debt Funds Universe
• Non-listed real estate vehicles
• 468 funds
• GAV of EUR 289.84 billion
• Funds of funds
• 64 vehicles
• NAV of EUR 9.3 billion
• Debt Funds
• 42 vehicles
• Target GAV of EUR 33.23 billion
Huge growth observed since 2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nu
mb
er
of
Veh
icle
s
Gro
ss
As
se
t V
alu
es
( b
illi
on
s)
Size of the European Non-Listed Real Estate Market
GAV (€ billions) Number of Funds
6Source: INREV Vehicles Universe, as at 1 September
2015
Capital raising pattern since 2004
7Source: INREV Capital Raising Surveys, 2004 - 2015
Concentration at the top in 2015
Rank Company RE AUM (€ bn)
1 Brookfield Asset Management 104
2 The Blackstone Group 100
3 CBRE Global Investors 75
4 TIAA Henderson Real Estate 68
5 AXA Real Estate 55
6 UBS Global Asset Management 53
7 Invesco Real Estate 53
8 JP Morgan Asset Management 49
9 Pramerica Real Estate Investors 48
10 Principal Real Estate Investors 47
• 164 fund managers: €1,8 trillion AUM
• 37% of the AUM is held by the top 10 fund
managers
• AXA Real Estate is the largest in Europe
• Brookfield Asset Management is the
largest in US
• CapitaLand is the largest in Asia
8
Top 10 Fund Managers Worldwide
Source: INREV/ANREV/NCREIF Fund Manager Survey
2015
Concentration at the top in 2012
9Source: INREV Fund Manager Survey, 2012
A piece of the pie for all
10
4. Almost private equity
1. Large institutions
3. Niche opportunistic
2. Massive private equity
INVESTORS’ INTENTIONS 2016
Marcus
11
Increasing allocations almost everywhere
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Kore
a, R
epublic
of
United K
ingdom
Sw
itzerland
Fin
land
Canada
Italy
Austr
alia
Sw
eden
The N
eth
erland
s
Denm
ark
United S
tate
s
Germ
any
Japan
Fra
nce
% o
f overa
ll port
folio
Investor domicile
Allocation to real estate
Current allocation Increase to target
12Note: Equally weighted allocations
And from every investor type
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Pension funds Insurance companies Other investors All investors
% o
f overa
ll p
ort
folio
Allocation to real estate
Current allocations Increase to target
13Note: Equally weighted allocations
Pension funds have the highest allocations but are only slightly under target
Capital is crossing borders
14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current region Target region
Asia Pacific investors
5,7%11,2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current region Target region
Europeaninvestors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current region Target region
North American investors
Strong preference for Europe
Expected destination forinvestment in 2016
Europe Asia Pacific
United States Americas ex US
Other
15Note: Chart shows only investor preferences
…from investors and fund of funds managers
With intentions to further increase allocation
16Source: ANREV / INREV / PREA Investment Intentions
Survey 2015 – weighted allocations
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Asia Pacific Investors European Investors North AmericanInvestors
All Investors
Real E
sta
te A
llo
cati
on
(%
)
Allocation to Real Estate as % of Overall Portfolio
Current Allocation Target Allocation 2016
Increase in desire for value added
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% o
f re
spondents
Investment style preferences
Core Value added Opportunity
17
Value added preferred ahead of core and opportunity
INRE V GLOBAL REA L ESTATE FUND INDEX
Stephen Ryan
18
Introducing GREFI
• Global Real Estate Fund Index (GREFI)
• Index showing the performance of non-listed real estate funds on a global scale
• Created by ANREV, INREV and NCREIF
• www.anrev.org
• www.inrev.org
• www.ncreif.org
• Updated 12 weeks after the quarter end
• GREFI Q3 2015 update includes 454 funds
• Returns from 2010
19
Global growth in non-listed real estate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 Q
1
2010 Q
3
2011 Q
1
2011 Q
3
2012 Q
1
2012 Q
3
2013 Q
1
2013 Q
3
2014 Q
1
2014 Q
3
2015 Q
1
2015 Q
3
Nu
mb
er
of
Fu
nd
s
Number of Funds
Asia Pacific Europe US
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 Q
1
2010 Q
3
2011 Q
1
2011 Q
3
2012 Q
1
2012 Q
3
2013 Q
1
2013 Q
3
2014 Q
1
2014 Q
3
2015 Q
1
2015 Q
3
GA
V (
$ b
illio
n)
GAV
Asia Pacific Europe US
20Source: ANREV / INREV / NCREIF Global Real Estate
Fund Index Q3 2015
Global Real Estate Fund Index
21
Performance is mixed across the regions
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%2010 Q
1
2010 Q
2
2010 Q
3
2010 Q
4
2011 Q
1
2011 Q
2
2011 Q
3
2011 Q
4
2012 Q
1
2012 Q
2
2012 Q
3
2012 Q
4
2013 Q
1
2013 Q
2
2013 Q
3
2013 Q
4
2014 Q
1
2014 Q
2
2014 Q
3
2014 Q
4
2015 Q
1
2015 Q
2
2015 Q
3
Qu
art
erl
y T
ota
l R
etu
rn
Quarterly Fund Performance
Asia Pacific
Europe
US
22Source: ANREV / INREV / NCREIF Global Real Estate
Fund Index Q3 2015
Index components
23
Questions?
24
