understanding industry staffing patterns in u.s. employment projections dixie sommers assistant...
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Understanding Industry Staffing Patterns in U.S. Employment
Projections
Dixie SommersAssistant Commissioner
Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor
September 29, 2011
2
Employment Projections
BLS projections approach What we project Employment projections process
overview National Employment Matrix
Projecting staffing patterns
3
BLS projections approach
Projections for 10 year periods Produced every two years
– 2008-2018 currently available– 2010-2020 to be published in early 2012
BLS produces national projections State workforce agencies produce
projections for States and areas Employment concept
Jobs, not persons
4
BLS projections approach
Assume a “full-employment economy” for the target year (2018) Labor market in balance No overall labor surplus or shortage Target unemployment rate at a full
employment level Other assumptions and target
variables Energy prices, interest rates, and
more
5
What we project
Four inter-related components Labor force size and composition
– Overall labor supply as constraint on growth
Aggregate economy – Gross domestic product and its
components Industry demand
– Final demand, output, and employment Occupational demand
– Employment– Job openings from replacements
Employment projections process
Labor ForceTotal and by age,
sex, race and ethnicity
Aggregate EconomyGDP, total
employment, and major demand
categoriesOccupational
Employment
Job openings due to growth & replacement
needs
Industry Final Demand
Sales to consumers, businesses,
government, and foreigners
Industry Employment
Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage &
salary employment
Industry OutputUse and Make
Relationships, Total Requirements
Tables
Population
Labor force participation rate
trends
Demographics Fiscal policy
Foreign economies
Energy prices Monetary policy
Staffing patterns
Staffing pattern ratio analyses
Replacement rates
Economic censusesAnnual economic
surveysOther data sources
Industry output
Sector wage rates
Technological change
Input-Output Tables
6
National Employment Matrix
Matrix or set of tables For each industry, the distribution of
employment by occupation or “staffing pattern”
Inverse matrix: for each occupation, the distribution of employment by industry
293 industries by 750 occupations– Self-employed and unpaid family workers
treated as industry vectors
Data shown as Percent distributions or “ratios” Cell employment = ratio x industry
employment7
National Employment Matrix
Base-year matrix (2008) data sources Occupational Employment Statistics
(OES)– Employer survey – Wage and salary workers– All industries except private households
and most of agriculture Current Population Survey
– Household survey– Self-employed and unpaid family workers– Private household workers and most
agriculture workers
8
9
Occupational Employment Statistics
(OES) survey BLS establishment survey
Sample of 1.2 million establishments
Collected over 3-year period Wage and salary employment
Total employment by occupation Percent distribution of employment in
each industry by occupation (staffing pattern)
About 800 detailed occupations Hourly or annual wages
OES data for Residential building
construction
10
SOC code Major Occupation GroupEmployment,
May 2008Percent of industry
total
Annual mean wage,May 2008
00-0000 All Occupations 872,480 100.00 $45,110
11-0000 Management occupations 70,330 8.06 $95,700
13-0000 Business and financial operations occupations 35,720 4.09 $60,500
17-0000 Architecture and engineering occupations 9,300 1.07 $60,790
19-0000 Life, physical, and social science occupations 840 0.1 $62,700
21-0000 Community and social services occupations * * $41,850
23-0000 Legal occupations 650 0.07 $92,010
27-0000 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 3,810 0.44 *
29-0000 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 100 0.01 *
33-0000 Protective service occupations 690 0.08 *
37-0000Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 9,210 1.06 $25,880
39-0000 Personal care and service occupations 480 0.06 *
41-0000 Sales and related occupations 34,890 4 $59,470
43-0000 Office and administrative support occupations 125,350 14.37 $32,870
45-0000 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 70 0.01 $23,360
47-0000 Construction and extraction occupations 556,560 63.79 $40,270
49-0000 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 11,150 1.28 *
51-0000 Production occupations 2,390 0.27 $37,300
*Not available
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics
OES data for Residential building
construction
11
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics
Detailed construction occupations with 2,500 or more workers
SOC code Occupation title Employment, May 2008
Percent of industry total
Annual mean wage,
May 2008
47-2031 Carpenters 265,840 30.47 $41,010
47-2061 Construction laborers 116,070 13.3 $31,150
47-1011First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers
76,410 8.76 $58,810
47-3012 Helpers--carpenters
32,400 3.71 $25,940
47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance
12,260 1.41 $33,710
47-2051 Cement masons and concrete finishers
10,790 1.24 $38,510
47-2073Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators
6,260 0.72 $43,720
47-2111 Electricians
6,030 0.69 $46,210
47-2081 Drywall and ceiling tile installers
4,840 0.55 $39,560
47-2152 Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters
3,880 0.44 $47,290
47-2021 Brickmasons and blockmasons
2,960 0.34 $45,890
47-2181 Roofers
2,850 0.33 $33,100
National Employment Matrix
Projected-year matrix (2018) Ratios projected to capture expected
change from factors affecting utilization of occupations within industries
– Changes in technology– Changes in product mix– Changes in business practices
Developed using “ratio analysis”– Results in “change factor matrix” – Rational for change recorded 12
13
National Employment Matrix
Multiply projected industry employment by the projected staffing pattern Results in projected employment by
occupation for each industry Sum the results for each
occupation across all industries Results in total projected employment
by occupation
14
National Employment Matrix
Answers questions such as: In 2008, what percent of all workers
in the Residential building construction industry work in the occupation Construction Managers?
In 2018, what percent of all workers in the Residential building construction industry do we expect to work in the occupation Construction Managers?
National Employment Matrix, Residential building
construction
15
Employment by industry, occupation, and percent distribution, 2008 and projected 2018.236100 Residential building construction (employment in thousands)
Occupation
2008 2018
Percent change
Employ-ment
changeEmploy-
mentPercent of industry
Percent of occupa-
tion
Employ-ment
Percent of industry
Percent of
occupa-tion
00-0000 Total, all occupations 832.1 100.00 0.55 996.9 100.00 0.60 19.81 164.811-1300 Management, business, and financial occupations 101.1 12.15 0.64 123.2 12.36 0.71 21.78 22.011-0000 Management occupations 67.1 8.06 0.75 80.4 8.07 0.86 19.93 13.411-1000 Top executives 17.3 2.08 0.79 18.4 1.85 0.84 6.33 1.111-1011 Chief executives 2.3 0.27 0.57 2.4 0.24 0.60 4.35 0.111-1021 General and operations managers 15.0 1.81 0.87 16.0 1.61 0.93 6.63 1.011-2000
Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales managers 2.4 0.29 0.38 2.9 0.29 0.41 22.07 0.5
11-2020 Marketing and sales managers 2.3 0.27 0.43 2.8 0.28 0.46 22.59 0.511-2021 Marketing managers 0.9 0.11 0.52 1.0 0.10 0.53 15.21 0.111-2022 Sales managers 1.4 0.16 0.39 1.7 0.17 0.43 27.53 0.411-2031 Public relations managers 0.1 0.01 0.15 0.1 0.01 0.15 15.70 0.011-3000 Operations specialties managers 4.3 0.52 0.28 5.0 0.50 0.30 15.87 0.711-3011 Administrative services managers 0.9 0.11 0.36 1.1 0.11 0.38 16.99 0.211-3031 Financial managers 2.2 0.26 0.40 2.5 0.25 0.43 15.75 0.311-3040 Human resources managers 0.1 0.02 0.11 0.2 0.02 0.12 16.86 0.011-3041 Compensation and benefits managers 0.1 0.01 0.15 0.1 0.01 0.16 17.11 0.011-3049 All other human resources managers 0.1 0.01 0.10 0.1 0.01 0.11 16.64 0.011-3051 Industrial production managers 0.1 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.01 0.06 12.85 0.011-3061 Purchasing managers 0.8 0.09 1.11 0.9 0.09 1.25 14.72 0.111-9000 Other management occupations 43.1 5.17 0.95 54.1 5.43 1.13 25.69 11.111-9021 Construction managers 39.5 4.74 7.16 49.9 5.01 7.73 26.56 10.5
Continued….
Projecting changes in staffing patterns within industries Analysts use occupational expertise
and empirical evidence to make decisions about how occupational utilization may change over the projections period
Provide rationale describing forces underlying the recommendation
Iterative process
Ratio Analysis
16
Show proportional change in an occupation’s projected share of industry employment Projected-year ratio = change factor x base-year
ratio For Carpenter’s helpers in Residential building
construction:4.04 = 1.09 x 3.71
Developed through the Ratio Analysis process
Change Factors
17
Rationales should present a reason why employment of an occupation should change as a share of industry employment “A small increase is expected in utilization of Carpenters helpers
because prefabricated carpentry work is shipped to construction sites more frequently, these workers will be used as a low-cost alternative to carpenters.”
Rationales for Ratio Changes
Occupation (Industry)
Percent of
Industry
Projected Industry
Growth Rate
Change
Factor
Projected
Percent of
Industry
Occupational Growth
Rate in this Industry
Carpenters helpers(Residential building construction)
3.71 18.44 1.09 4.04 30.32
18
Change FactorsChange Factor
magnitude Description
0.50 Very large decrease
0.65 Large decrease
0.80 Moderate decrease
0.90 Small decrease
1.00 No change
1.10 Small increase
1.20 Moderate increase
1.35 Large increase
1.50 Very large increase
19
Total shares of industry employment must equal 100 percent Application of initial change factors does
not result in correct totals Scaling used to force additivity Resulting projected-year ratios will not
equal initial ratios Change factor review and scaling
repeated until no further analysts requests for changes are made
Ratio Analysis
20
Ratio Analysis
Occupation
2008 2018
Change factor
Employment change, 2008-18
Employment
Percent of
industryEmployme
ntPercent of industry Number Percent
Total, all occupations 832.1 100.00 996.9 100.00 1.00 164.8 19.81
Construction managers 39.5 4.74 49.9 5.01 1.06 8.7 25.44
Carpenters 253.5 30.47 294.0 29.49 0.97 40.4 15.94
Carpenters helpers 30.9 3.71 40.3 4.04 1.09 9.4 30.32
All other helpers, construction trades 1.2 0.15 1.5 0.15 1.00 0.3 25.34
Example results for Residential Building Construction(employment in thousands)
21
Ratio Analysis Impact
Without ratio analysis– Assume that staffing patterns would not
change over the projection period– All occupational employment change
would result from industry employment change
How much difference does ratio analysis make?
– Apply base-year staffing patterns to projected-year industry employment
– Compare the result with actual projections made using ratio analysis 21
Ratio Analysis Impact
Changes total employment by occupation Shifts of employment into the
occupation Shifts of employment out of the
occupation Net change
22
Ratio Analysis Impact
Shifted about 4.5 million jobs from one occupation to another 2.69 percent of total jobs projected
for 2018
23
Employment Impact of Ratio Analysis on the 2008-18 Projections CycleAll numbers in thousands.
Occupation Jobs moved out
Jobs moved
in
Net
impact
Percent of
2018 jobs
moved out
Percent
of 2018
jobs
moved in
Net percent impact
Total, All Occupations -4,467.4 4,467.4 0 -2.69% 2.69% 0.00%
Ratio Analysis
25
Business and financial operations
Life, physical, and social science
Healthcare support
Computer and mathematical science
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media
Installation, maintenance, and repair
Education, training, and library
Healthcare practitioners and technical
Personal care and service
Community and social services
Architecture and engineering
Protective service
Food preparation and serving related
Legal
Production
Sales and related
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
4.76%
3.62%
3.03%
2.85%
2.37%
2.05%
1.94%
1.81%
1.69%
1.39%
1.28%
1.12%
0.53%
0.51%
0.39%
0.12%
Positive net percent impact of ratio analysis on projected employment by major occupation group, net job shift as percent of 2018 projected
employment
Ratio Analysis
26
Construction and extraction
Farming, fishing, and forestry
Transportation and material moving
Office and administrative support
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
Management
-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%
-0.07%
-1.34%
-2.70%
-3.04%
-3.53%
-3.70%
Negative net percent impact of ratio analysis on projected employment by major occupation group, net job shift as percent of 2018 projected
employment
Using the matrix
Using the matrix to understand industries and occupations Industry structure Concentration of occupations in
industries Distribution of occupational
employment across industries
26
Largest occupations in Residential building
construction
Occupation2008
Employment
2018 Projected
employment
Projected
percent change
Projected numerical
change47-2031 Carpenters 253.5 294.0 15.94 40.4
47-2061 Construction laborers 110.7 144.3 30.32 33.6
47-1011
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 72.9 95.0 30.32 22.1
11-9021 Construction managers 39.5 49.9 26.56 10.5
47-3012 Helpers—Carpenters 30.9 40.3 30.32 9.4
43-9061 Office clerks, general 28.2 32.7 15.98 4.5
43-6014
Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 27.2 29.2 7.46 2.0
43-3031
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 23.4 27.2 15.94 3.7
13-1051 Cost estimators 16.1 20.9 30.35 4.9
11-1021 General and operations managers 15.0 16.0 6.63 1.0
43-6011
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 14.1 16.3 15.89 2.2
41-9022 Real estate sales agents 12.1 14.0 15.97 1.9
47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance 11.7 13.9 18.46 2.2
47-2051 Cement masons and concrete finishers 10.3 11.7 13.53 1.4
(Employment in thousands)
28
Occupations concentrated in Residential building
construction
29
Occupation
2008 2018
Percent change
Employ-ment
changeEmploy-
ment
Percent of
industry
Percent of occupatio
nEmploy-
ment
Percent of
industry
Percent of occupatio
n47-3012 Helpers—Carpenters 30.9 3.71 38.71 40.3 4.04 40.90 30.32 9.447-2031 Carpenters 253.5 30.47 19.73 294.0 29.49 20.27 15.94 40.447-1011
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 72.9 8.76 10.44 95.0 9.53 11.79 30.32 22.1
47-2061 Construction laborers 110.7 13.30 8.86 144.3 14.47 9.59 30.32 33.613-1051 Cost estimators 16.1 1.93 7.37 20.9 2.10 7.67 30.35 4.911-9021 Construction managers 39.5 4.74 7.16 49.9 5.01 7.73 26.56 10.547-2051
Cement masons and concrete finishers 10.3 1.24 5.12 11.7 1.17 5.15 13.53 1.4
47-3019
All other helpers, construction trades 1.2 0.15 4.49 1.5 0.15 5.01 25.34 0.3
47-2022 Stonemasons 0.9 0.11 3.87 1.1 0.11 4.06 17.11 0.227-1025 Interior designers 2.5 0.30 3.49 2.8 0.28 3.23 10.48 0.349-9095
Manufactured building and mobile home installers 0.3 0.04 3.36 0.4 0.04 3.51 9.96 0.0
47-2131
Insulation workers, floor, ceiling, and wall 0.9 0.11 3.35 1.0 0.10 3.19 9.40 0.1
(Employment in thousands)
Industries where most Carpenters work
30
Industries with 2008 employment of 15,000 or more for Carpenters
Industry
2008 2018
Percent change
Employ-ment
changeEmploy-
ment
Percent of
industry
Percent of
occupa-tion
Employ-ment
Percent of
industry
Percent of
occupa-tion
000000 Total employment, all workers 1,284.9
0.9
100.0
1,450.
3
0.9
100.0
12.9
165.4
SE1300 Self-employed workers, all jobs 411.2
3.5
32.0
458.0
3.7
31.6
11.4
46.8
236100Residential building construction 253.5
30.5
19.7
294.0
29.5
20.3
15.9
40.4
236200Nonresidential building construction 160.2 19.36 12.46 184.6 18.63 12.73 15.27 24.5
238100Foundation, structure, and building exterior contractors 131.0 13.27 10.20 147.6 13.08 10.18 12.63 16.5
238300 Building finishing contractors 126.8 13.89 9.87 147.7 14.41 10.18 16.51 20.9
561300 Employment services 24.3 0.77 1.89 30.1 0.80 2.07 23.58 5.7
321900Other wood product manufacturing 17.1 6.46 1.33 15.4 6.42 1.06 -10.24 -1.8
(Employment in thousands)
31
BLS projections products
Projection data for each component Data tables Technical outputs for researchers
News release Analysis in the Monthly Labor
Review Technical documentation
BLS projections products
Occupational Outlook Handbook
Career Guide to Industries
Occupational Outlook Quarterly
32
33
BLS projections products
Occupational Outlook Handbook Nature of the work Training, other qualifications, and
advancement Employment and job outlook Earnings Related occupations Sources of additional information
34
References
Employment Projections http://www.bls.gov/emp/
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) http://www.bls.gov/oes/
Occupational Outlook Handbook http://www.bls.gov/oco/
Occupational Outlook Quarterly http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq
Career Guide to Industries http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/
Contact Information
Thank you!
Dixie SommersAssistant Commissioner
Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, NEWashington, D.C. [email protected]