Qing Wu, Senior Economist October, 2014

Understanding World Economy through Lens of Google Search Trends

Google  Trends:  Vodka  and  Hangover  

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Google  trends  mirror  human  behavior,  what  about  using  that  for  insights  of  economy?  

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Leading  Indicator  for  Recession:  CosmeBc  Surgery  

great  recession   debt  ceiling  crisis  

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Leading  Indicator  for  Recession:  Underwear  Index  

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IniBal  Claims  and  Unemployment  Benefits  

Obama  signed  the  extension  bill  

Senate  advanced  the  extension  bill  

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Local  Unemployment  Search  Intensity  

Unemployment  intensity  by  DMAs    (2014)  

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Local  Food  Stamp  Search  Intensity  

Food  stamp  search  intensity  by  DMAs    (2014)  

Es>mated  poverty  rates  by  county  (2008)  

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Unemployment  Search  Trends  for  Other  Countries  

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ReacBons  to  Market  VolaBlity  (VIX)    

buy  bond   gold  price   Money  safe  

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Real  Estate:  Home  Sales  

Google  trends  mirror  human  behavior  

“First  4me  homebuyer  credit”  program:  2008-­‐2010  

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Real  Estate:  ConstrucBon  Spending  

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Auto  Sales  and  Auto  Search  

Light  trucks/suv  sales  outpaced  cars!  

“Cash-­‐for-­‐clunkers”  boosted  car  sales  but  not  so  much  for  searches.    

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Oil  Price  and  Auto  Choices  

Barrel  price  $100  starts  to  boost    Hybrid  interest  significantly!  

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Currency  Exchange  Rate  VolaBlity  

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E-­‐Commerce  Trends:  Varying  Paces  

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E-­‐Commerce  Trend:  Heightened  Holiday  Season  

Black  Friday   Cyber  Monday  

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Weather’s  Impact  on  Search:  Driven  by  Behavior  

April   October  

Search  volume  impact  when  weather  is  colder  (-­‐10C):  consumer  electronics  

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Weather’s  Impact  on  Search:  Driven  by  Weather  

June   October  

Search  volume  impact  when  weather  is  colder  (-­‐10C):  HVAC  &  Climate  Control  

Takeaway: Use big data and Google trends to get economics insights!

THANK YOU

Google  ConfidenBal  &  Proprietary  

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