unemployment rate monthly market wrap economic overview …€¦ · monthly market wrap economic...

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Monthly Market Wrap E CONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com 0 2000 4000 6000 2017 2018 2019 2020 4-Wk Moving Average of Initial Claims (000s), SA 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 2017 2018 2019 Unemployment Rate Economic data received in July showed signs of a rebound from the disastrous numbers seen in May and June. Readings for second quarter GDP came in showing an historic -32.9% annualized collapse in the output of goods and services in the U.S. as consumer spending all but dried up during the early days of the pandemic. Consumer Spending continued to rebound in June, however, rising 5.6%, following May’s rise of 8.5%. Personal Income declined -1.1%, slightly better than May’s -4.4% fall. Retail Sales for June rose 7.5%, beating analyst expectations for a 5.0% gain. The Unemployment Rate in June came in at 11.1%, better than expected and down from May’s 13.3% number. Average Hourly Earnings fell -1.2% MoM but remain up 5.0% YoY. As of mid-July Continuing Claims still exceeded 17 million, as a combination of slow re-hiring in certain sectors (travel & leisure) and high unemployment benefits (extra $600 per week) kept many would-be workers on the sidelines. The housing sector appears to have weathered the pandemic better than many would expect with demand holding fairly steady throughout the spring and early summer while supply shrank as a result of the pandemic. Housing Starts rose 17.3% MoM in June while Existing Home Sales rose 20.7% MoM and New Home Sales surged 13.8%. The S&P CoreLogic CS US Home Price Index showed a 4.46% YoY rise in home prices through May. The U.S. economy continued to recover throughout July from the Q2 shutdown; however as coronavirus cases surge here in mid-summer, concerns over a second wave and another forced economic shutdown have both consumers and investors on edge. As Congress debates another stimulus package, the Federal Reserve continues to pledge any means necessary to maintain economic stability. So far, markets are responding favorably to this combination of support, although the clear need for a vaccine rises daily. August 1, 2020 100 140 180 220 260 80 120 160 2017 2018 2019 Consumer Confidence LHS vs. Home Prices RHS -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 2017 2018 2019 PPI & CPI YOY % Change Name Current For Previous For Retail Sales ex. Autos MOM % 7.3% June 12.1% May Housing Starts 1186K June 1011K May Factory Orders MOM % 8.0% May -13.5% April Leading Indicators MOM % 2.0% June 3.2% May Unit Labor Costs 5.1% Q1 2020 2.2% Q4 2019 GDP QOQ (Annualized) -32.9% Q2 2020 -5.0% Q1 2020 Wholesale Inventories -2.0% June -1.2% May MBA Mortgage Applications -0.8% July -1.8% June Key Data Points

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Page 1: Unemployment Rate Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW …€¦ · Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com 0 2000 4000 6000

Monthly Market Wrap

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

0

2000

4000

6000

2017 2018 2019 2020

4-Wk Moving Average of Initial Claims (000s), SA

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

2017 2018 2019

Unemployment Rate

Economic data received in July showed signs of a rebound from the disastrous numbers seen in May and June. Readings for second quarter GDP came in showing an historic -32.9% annualized collapse in the output of goods and services in the U.S. as consumer spending all but dried up during the early days of the pandemic.

Consumer Spending continued to rebound in June, however, rising 5.6%, following May’s rise of 8.5%. Personal Income declined -1.1%, slightly better than May’s -4.4% fall. Retail Sales for June rose 7.5%, beating analyst expectations for a 5.0% gain.

The Unemployment Rate in June came in at 11.1%, better than expected and down from May’s 13.3% number. Average Hourly Earnings fell -1.2% MoM but remain up 5.0% YoY. As of mid-July Continuing Claims still exceeded 17 million, as a combination of slow re-hiring in certain sectors (travel & leisure) and high unemployment benefits (extra $600 per week) kept many would-be workers on the sidelines.

The housing sector appears to have weathered the pandemic better than many would expect with demand holding fairly steady throughout the spring and early summer while supply shrank as a result of the pandemic. Housing Starts rose 17.3% MoM in June while Existing Home Sales rose 20.7% MoM and New Home Sales surged 13.8%. The S&P CoreLogic CS US Home Price Index showed a 4.46% YoY rise in home prices through May.

The U.S. economy continued to recover throughout July from the Q2 shutdown; however as coronavirus cases surge here in mid-summer, concerns over a second wave and another forced economic shutdown have both consumers and investors on edge. As Congress debates another stimulus package, the Federal Reserve continues to pledge any means necessary to maintain economic stability. So far, markets are responding favorably to this combination of support, although the clear need for a vaccine rises daily.

August 1, 2020

100

140

180

220

260

80

120

160

2017 2018 2019

Consumer Confidence LHS vs. Home Prices RHS

-8.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

2017 2018 2019

PPI & CPI YOY % ChangeName Current For Previous For

Retail Sales ex. Autos MOM % 7.3% June 12.1% May

Housing Starts 1186K June 1011K May

Factory Orders MOM % 8.0% May -13.5% April

Leading Indicators MOM % 2.0% June 3.2% May

Unit Labor Costs 5.1% Q1 2020 2.2% Q4 2019

GDP QOQ (Annualized) -32.9% Q2 2020 -5.0% Q1 2020

Wholesale Inventories -2.0% June -1.2% May

MBA Mortgage Applications -0.8% July -1.8% June

Key Data Points

Page 2: Unemployment Rate Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW …€¦ · Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com 0 2000 4000 6000

Monthly Market Wrap

DOMESTIC EQUITY

Domestic Equity 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

05

101520253035404550

S&P 500Index

S&P 400Mid Cap

Index

S&P 600Small Cap

Index

S&P500/CitiGrowthIndex

S&P500/Citi

ValueIndex

Domestic Equity Market P/E Ratios

10 Year Average

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

S&P 500 Index 5.64% 5.64% 2.38% 11.94% 11.99% 11.46%

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index 4.61% 4.61% -8.75% -3.55% 3.62% 6.12%

S&P 600 Small Cap Index 4.11% 4.11% -14.49% -8.71% 1.54% 5.44%

S&P 500/Citi Growth Index 6.99% 6.99% 15.47% 24.54% 18.36% 15.34%

S&P 500/Citi Value Index 3.66% 3.66% -12.44% -2.73% 4.50% 6.65%

Domestic Equity ReturnsSector MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year % of S&P 500

Consumer Discretionary 9.00% 9.00% 16.88% 21.57% 17.90% 14.08% 11.84%

Consumer Staples 6.96% 6.96% 0.91% 8.14% 7.20% 7.50% 7.74%

Energy -5.13% -5.13% -38.65% -38.27% -14.68% -8.68% 2.45%

Financials 3.77% 3.77% -20.77% -12.87% 0.74% 5.50% 9.49%

Healthcare 5.38% 5.38% 4.54% 18.77% 11.95% 8.67% 14.22%

Industrials 4.34% 4.34% -10.93% -5.73% 3.31% 7.57% 7.92%

Information Technology 5.62% 5.62% 21.41% 38.91% 27.32% 24.00% 27.05%

Materials 7.07% 7.07% -0.34% 6.28% 5.75% 7.99% 2.52%

Real Estate 4.00% 4.00% -4.88% 0.16% 7.29% 6.85% 2.71%

Communication Services* 6.80% 6.80% 6.47% 14.76% 8.72% 8.59% 11.05%

Utilities 7.81% 7.81% -4.20% 5.83% 8.23% 10.52% 3.00%*The S&P 500 Communciat ion Services Sector was reclassifed from the Telecommunicat ions Sector on September 21st, 2018

S&P 500 Sector Returns

U.S. equities rose sharply in July, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index gaining +5.64% to close at 3,271. Remarkably, the S&P 500 is in the black for the year, up +2.38% despite coronavirus headlines in the U.S. that show +1.9M new cases in July according to Johns Hopkins University. Mid- and Small-Cap equities, as measured by the S&P 400 and 600 Indices, rose in tandem, gaining +4.61% and +4.11%, respectively on the month. For the year, Mid- and Small-Caps remain firmly in the red, down -8.75% and -14.49%, respectively.

The S&P 500 Technology sector rose +5.62% in July, matching the broader market’s return. This comes after blowout earnings from Apple, Facebook and Amazon (sorry Google), and despite their CEO’s testifying on Capitol Hill on Thursday. Apple’s earnings report showed strength in all segments, with consumers stocking up on Macs and iPads to both work and learn from home. The Consumer Discretionary sector, which counts nearly 50% Amazon exposure, surged in July, up +9.00%, due to a record quarter in which demand rose from people staying home and ordering just about anything on Amazon. Both Apple and Amazon are expected to see revenue cross the symbolic $100 Billion mark in Q4, a feat rarely accomplished globally besides at Walmart. For perspective, consensus estimates see Amazon and Apple bringing in revenues of $380 Billion and $280 Billion this year, and their current market capitalizations reflect the heightened expectations at $1.586 and $1.821 Trillion, respectively.

Growth stocks continued to outperform Value stocks during the period with the S&P/Citi Growth Index returning +6.99% compared to +3.66% for the S&P/Citi Value Index. The year to date Growth/Value spread continues to widen, reaching nearly 28 percentage points, with Growth stocks +15.47% YTD compared to -12.43% for value. With nearly two thirds of S&P 500 companies reporting Q2 earnings, an overwhelming 84% of companies have beat consensus EPS targets by an average of 21.8% according to FactSet, both well above average. As the earnings bar gets reset for the rest of 2020 it will be just as important to see how many companies reinstate full year guidance given that nearly 40% of S&P 500 companies pulled their full year guidance last quarter. Stay tuned.

August 1, 2020

-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%MTD S&P 500 Sector Returns

Page 3: Unemployment Rate Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW …€¦ · Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com 0 2000 4000 6000

Monthly Market Wrap

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY

International Equity 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Sector MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year % of ACWI Ex. USA

Energy 0.66% 0.66% -31.57% -27.79% -5.45% -0.86% 9.35%

Healthcare 2.19% 2.19% 8.70% 24.09% 10.78% 4.48% 6.79%

Utilities 6.85% 6.85% -2.70% 5.59% 7.06% 7.41% 5.80%

Information Technology 10.93% 10.93% 14.24% 33.88% 13.81% 17.33% 10.30%

Materials 8.39% 8.39% -1.09% 6.48% 3.84% 7.43% 6.91%

Financials 2.01% 2.01% -21.42% -15.97% -6.38% -1.30% 17.47%

Consumer Discretionary 5.72% 5.72% -3.70% 6.79% 2.84% 3.46% 11.99%

Communication Services* 4.37% 4.37% 5.93% 9.93% 1.95% 1.10% 7.73%

Real Estate** 1.10% 1.10% -20.73% -15.81% -3.88% N/A 2.99%

Industrials 2.23% 2.23% -11.14% -3.02% 0.96% 3.90% 10.12%

Consumer Staples 4.97% 4.97% -1.05% 1.83% 3.34% 4.33% 10.55%*The M SCI ACWI Ex. USA Real Estate Sector was developed on August 31st, 2016

MSCI ACWI Ex U.S. Sector Returns

International equities also rallied sharply in July thanks to a weaker U.S. Dollar and positive headlines from the European Union on a record fiscal stimulus package coming to market. Developed Markets equities, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose +2.36% on the month helped by a surging Euro that gained +4.46% during the period to close July at 1.17 USD/EUR, the highest level in well over a year. Emerging Markets equities, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose an even greater +9.01%, as the U.S. Dollar cratered -4.15% on the month. A weaker Dollar (and strengthening foreign currency) helps boost returns of U.S. Dollar based investors investing overseas. Quietly, EM is outperforming DM year to date (-1.53% vs. -8.92%).

Perhaps the greatest announcement in international markets came mid-July with the European Union agreeing on a 1.8 Trillion Euro spending package which includes issuing common debt from the EU (and available for purchase from the European Central Bank). Looking through the headline, 390 Billion Euros will be issued as grants; however, while that amount may pale in comparison to support from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the announcement is symbolic in that it represents European unity, and perhaps finally a step towards a fiscal union (one could only hope). More interesting is Northern countries agreeing to help Southern countries and Germany opening up its wallet. The likely beneficiaries of the stimulus measures are most likely to be smaller economies such as Italy and Greece where government debt loads have skyrocketed.

European governments have stepped in to aid the labor market, which has helped keep joblessness relatively under control. Unemployment in the Eurozone was only 7.8% (up from a low of 7.2% and versus more than 11.1% in the U.S. from a low of 3.5%). Strict lockdowns and government furlough programs appear to be helping.

Early indications out of the Eurozone are of stabilization and early signs of growth, it remains to be seen whether or not the bloc is out of the woods. The Eurozone recorded a record economic contraction, with GDP falling -12.1% from the previous quarter (much different interpretation than the -40.3% annualized figure reported as a headline). Despite the negative headline, there are a few signs of life. The Markit flash Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) rose to 51.1 from 47.4 in June, indicating manufacturing is beginning to rebound. Services PMI came in at 55.1 from 48.3 in June, also signaling a strong rebound. The overall composite reading of 54.8 handily beat expectations for 51.1, and marked a more than 2-year high. Readings over 50 signal expansion.

Time will tell if the Eurozone recovery is for real and if the recent stimulus announcement was more than a one-time symbolic gesture. Perhaps the Dollar’s years-long surge is over and recent Euro strength will persist. Should investors agree, they might start to vote with their asset allocations.

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

MSCI ACWI Index (USD) 5.33% 5.33% -0.96% 7.79% 7.58% 7.98%

MSCI EAFE Index (USD) 2.36% 2.36% -8.92% -1.13% 1.21% 2.69%

MSCI EM Index (USD) 9.01% 9.01% -1.53% 6.89% 3.19% 6.55%

FTSE 100 Index (GBP) -4.20% -4.20% -20.28% -19.17% -3.31% 1.50%

Nikkei 225 Index (JPY) -2.59% -2.59% -7.17% 3.05% 5.03% 3.10%

Hang Seng Index (HKD) 1.50% 1.50% -10.54% -8.23% 0.08% 3.70%

Shanghai Composite Index (CNY) 11.96% 11.96% 10.83% 15.57% 2.80% 0.21%

MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index (USD) 4.51% 4.51% -6.71% 1.17% 1.92% 3.77%

MSCI EMU Index (EUR) -1.32% -1.32% -13.09% -6.36% 0.10% 1.53%

International Equity Returns

August 1, 2020

05

10152025303540

International Equity Market P/E Ratios

10 Year Average

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

MTD MSCI ACWI Sector

Returns

Page 4: Unemployment Rate Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW …€¦ · Monthly Market Wrap ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com 0 2000 4000 6000

Monthly Market Wrap

FIXED INCOME

Fixed Income 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Bloomberg Barclays US Government Index 1.12% 1.12% 9.82% 11.70% 5.86% 4.11%

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Index 1.49% 1.49% 7.72% 10.12% 5.69% 4.46%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index 3.25% 3.25% 8.44% 12.44% 7.21% 6.36%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index 4.69% 4.69% 0.71% 4.14% 4.53% 5.87%

Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Agg Index 3.12% 3.12% 2.68% 5.13% 4.94% 5.79%

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg Treasuries USD Index 0.80% 0.80% 5.14% 5.98% 5.44% 4.39%

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Index 1.68% 1.68% 3.80% 5.36% 4.51% 4.12%

Fixed Income Returns

0

500

1000

0

200

400

2017 2018 2019

Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS)

US Corporate Master (LHS)US High Yield Master II (RHS)

Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve met on July 28th and 29th, followed by a press conference hosted by Powell. There was plenty of concern about the pandemic battered economy, but no specific action taken (although there has been plenty of action during the past few months). For now, we are in a "wait and see," period. One of the major concerns was that falling demand could lead to a disinflationary shock. To moderate this concern, Powell wanted to make very clear that rates would remain low, indefinitely. During the discussion, he emphasized that the Fed was not even “thinking about thinking about thinking about,” raising interest rates (he has used that phrase before, but not being thrice removed from it).

Duration has continued to be a bond investor’s friend, as Treasury rates declined further in July. Short-term Treasury bond yields are about as low as they can go (without moving below zero...), and longer maturity Treasury bond yields have continued to slowly move lower. U.S. Treasury yields still offer some the highest rates in the developed world. With this month’s move lower, they are approaching Canadian rates, but remain higher than Great Britain, Germany, Japan, etc.

Credit risk has continued to build, illustrated by the consistent stream of corporate bankruptcies, even as the Government attempts to staunch the flow with assorted programs. While defaults rise, the yield of Investment Grade and High Yield bonds has continued to fall. It is difficult to reconcile, but there are a few explanations that make some sense. One, is that spreads are recovering from a possible overreaction earlier this year when they widened significantly. The second possibility is that with Treasury bond yields having declined to historically low levels, corporate bonds are simply adjusting by offering a historically similar amount of relative yield pickup on a percentage basis (25% more yield than a similar Treasury bond), instead of the more traditional nominal spread basis (100 basis points more than a similar Treasury bond).

The combination of lower Treasury yields and contracted corporate spreads (risk-on) resulted in strong monthly returns for Investment Grade and High Yield corporate bonds, as well as Emerging Market bonds, which had the additional tailwind of a weakening US Dollar. Government bonds benefitted from yields moving lower (prices higher), and Municipal bond yields declined relative to Treasury bonds. While Municipal bonds continue to offer value compared to Treasury bonds, their yields have returned to levels closer to those historically experienced than we have seen in the past few months.

August 1, 2020

Name Current 1 Month Ago6 Months Ago 1 Year Ago

Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.25% 1.75% 2.25%

Bank of Japan Target Rate 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

European Central Bank Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Bank of England Base Rate 0.10% 0.10% 0.75% 0.75%

Central Bank Activity

Period 3 Month 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year

Current 0.12% 0.12% 0.23% 0.53% 0.95% 1.20%

1 Month Ago 0.17% 0.16% 0.30% 0.64% 1.14% 1.41%

6 Months Ago 1.61% 1.34% 1.33% 1.51% 1.83% 1.99%

1 Year Ago 2.19% 1.88% 1.85% 2.01% 2.32% 2.53%

U.S. Treasury Yields

-0.5

1.5

3.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Treasury Yield Curve

Current1 Month Ago6 Months Ago1 Year Ago

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Monthly Market Wrap

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative Investments 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Global Hedge 1.29% 1.29% 0.19% 3.63% 1.30% 0.98%

Convertible Arbitrage 2.61% 2.61% 5.63% 7.76% 3.95% 3.97%

Equity Hedge (L/S) 0.86% 0.86% -5.49% -2.31% -0.13% -0.03%

Equity Market Neutral -1.78% -1.78% -6.70% -6.79% -3.77% -2.46%

Event Driven 0.62% 0.62% 2.24% 9.51% 0.02% 1.86%

Macro 1.77% 1.77% 1.03% 1.41% 1.60% -0.19%

Merger Arbitrage 1.01% 1.01% -1.02% 1.27% -0.59% 1.53%

Relative Value Arbitrage 2.03% 2.03% 3.16% 5.15% 3.18% 1.57%

Absolute Return 0.97% 0.97% -0.35% 2.08% 1.65% 1.54%Note: Price Return, Returns as of 07/30/20

Hedge Funds

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Dollar 0.47% -3.70% -2.70% -4.37% 1.02% -3.81%

BCOM 5.70% 5.70% -15.10% -13.03% -6.63% -5.63%

Gold -0.23% 10.69% 29.93% 81.40% 55.40% 81.40%

WTI 2.36% 2.36% -57.80% -55.60% -19.96% -19.40%

FTSENAREIT 3.82% 3.82% -9.99% -4.38% 4.37% 6.32%

Commodities

August 1, 2020 85

90

95

100

2017 2018 2019

U.S. Dollar Index Spot

150

200

250

2017 2018 2019

FTSE NAREIT All REIT's

$0

$25

$50

$75

2017 2018 2019

Crude Oil Spot (WTI Cushing)

$1,100

$1,500

2017 2018 2019

Gold Spot

50.000

90.000

130.000

2017 2018 2019

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Description Current 1 Mth Ago3 Mths Ago6 Mths Ago1 Year Ago

CAD / USD 1.34 1.35 1.41 1.33 1.32

JPY / USD 106.09 107.51 106.79 108.69 106.59

USD / GBP 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.30 1.22

USD / EUR 1.17 1.12 1.10 1.11 1.11

Spot Rates

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Dollar -3.61% -3.61% -3.15% -5.24% 3.29% -4.10%

BCOM 5.70% 5.70% -15.10% -13.03% -6.63% -5.63%

Gold 10.94% 10.94% 30.22% 39.76% 55.65% 80.31%

WTI 2.36% 2.36% -57.80% -55.60% -19.96% -19.40%

FTSENAREIT 3.82% 3.82% -9.99% -4.38% 4.37% 6.32%

Commodities

Alternative investments were mostly positive in July, but positively benefitted from a materially weaker U.S. Dollar. The Dollar, as measured by the DXY Index fell -4.15% during July and is now down -3.15% for the year and -8.67% off of its post-election high reached on December 31, 2016. Weakness in the Dollar boosted the Euro, which gained +4.46% during the month and is now +9.55% off the low of 1.068 hit on March 20th.

A weaker Dollar and falling interest rates propelled Gold to a new all-time high. The shiny metal rose $195/ounce or +10.94% to close the month at $1,976/ounce. Gold has risen +30.23% year to date as investors have sought refuge from weaker currencies, falling interest rates, and increasingly negative real yields. Traditional uses for precious metals (i.e. hedges to geopolitics, market volatility, etc.) remain; however, flows into the metals space are likely more to do with increasingly negative real yields in the short term. Gold futures briefly crossed $2,000/ounce in July which was a first, before paring gains. While flows into Gold related investments have been unrelenting, the immediate headwinds to Gold prices remain elusive save for profit taking. Gold has outperformed both Technology stocks (+21.41%) and the NASDAQ (+18.18%) year to date.

In other alternatives news, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices rose +$1/barrel, or +2.55%, to close at $40/barrel on the NYMEX. Crude’s gains helped the Bloomberg Commodities Index gain +5.7% during the period. Real Estate, as measured by the FTSE NAREIT All-REIT Index, gained +3.62%, and remains -14.79% off of its highs from January.

According to HFR, Hedge Fund strategies largely posted positive returns in July, with eight of nine strategies posting gains during the month. For the year, the picture is more mixed, with only five of nine strategies tracked posting positive returns on average. Convertible Arbitrage is the top performing strategy on the month (+2.61%) and year (+5.61%), while the bottom performer is Equity Market Neutral, down -1.78% in July and -6.70% year to date.

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Dollar -3.61% -3.61% -3.15% -5.24% 3.29% -4.10%

BCOM 5.70% 5.70% -15.10% -13.03% -18.62% -25.17%

Gold 10.94% 10.94% 30.22% 39.76% 55.65% 80.31%

WTI 2.36% 2.36% -57.80% -55.60% -48.75% -66.02%

FTSENAREIT 3.82% 3.82% -9.99% -4.38% 13.71% 35.88%

Commodities

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Monthly Market Wrap

ESG

ESG 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Despite all of the volatility and economic uncertainty created by COVID-19, ESG as a factor has continued to perform well. 2020 introduced the first bear market many of these newer ESG indices have faced, but they seem to have passed the test with flying colors. The MSCI USA ESG Extended Focus Index has returned +4.75% YTD, outperforming the MSCI USA Index which returned +3.64% and the S&P 500 which returned +2.38% over the same time period. This outperformance can be attributed to sector differences, such as a slight overweight to Tech and underweight to Energy, as well as security selection within those sectors. For example, the MSCI USA ESG Extended Focus Index has a position in Tesla, a leader in electric vehicles which has returned a staggering +242% YTD, while the S&P 500 excludes the stock from its index.

The MSCI EAFE ESG Extended Focus Index has returned -8.94% YTD, which is practically in-line with the broad MSCI EAFE Index. The MSCI Emerging Markets Extended Focus Index returned -0.86%, outpacing the broad MSCI EM Index.

Although the environmental aspect of ESG gets the most attention, social and governance factors have grown in importance over the past several years. The unprecedented lockdown most states are in, high unemployment, and an inability to complete many in-person services has caused many businesses to struggle during the pandemic. This has highlighted the need for companies to have strong governance structures in place that position the company for the future. In addition, recent increased civil unrest due to racial and socio-economic circumstances has pushed companies to think about how they can deal with social issues in a thoughtful way.

One company committed to stakeholder capitalism is JUST Capital, a not-for-profit research organization that polls American citizens to determine what their priorities for “just” business behavior are. They also created a COVID-19 Corporate Response Tracker to see how America’s largest employers are treating all of their stakeholders during the midst of this crisis. Investors or any stakeholder can use these public rankings and corporate policy trackers to see if acompany is emphasizing similar values to what they or the general American public supports.

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

MSCI USA Extended ESG Focus GR less MSCI USA Index

ESG US Relative Performance

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

MSCI EAFE Extended ESG Focus NR less MSCI EAFE Index

ESG EAFE Relative Performance

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearMSCI EM Extended ESG Focus NR

less MSCI EM Index

ESG EM Relative Performance

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

S&P 500 Index 5.64% 5.64% 2.38% 11.94% 11.99% 11.46%

MSCI USA GR Index 5.94% 5.94% 3.64% 13.11% 12.42% 11.59%

MSCI USA Extended ESG Focus GR Index 5.87% 5.87% 4.75% 14.85% 13.09% 12.13%

MSCI EAFE Index 2.36% 2.36% -8.92% -1.13% 1.21% 2.69%

MSCI EAFE Extended ESG Focus NR Index 2.44% 2.44% -8.94% -0.51% 1.23% 2.61%

MSCI EM Index 9.01% 9.01% -1.53% 6.89% 3.19% 6.55%

MSCI EM Extended ESG Focus NR Index 9.65% 9.65% -0.86% 7.71% 3.60% 7.41%

Bloomberg Barclays MSCI US Corp 1-5 Yr ESG Focus TR Index 0.82% 0.82% 4.28% 6.43% 4.13% 3.53%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index 3.25% 3.25% 8.44% 12.44% 7.21% 6.36%

Bloomberg Barclays MSCI US Corp ESG Focus TR Index 3.31% 3.31% 9.07% 13.12% 7.42% 6.46%

S&P Green Bond Select Index 1.36% 1.36% 4.05% 3.53% N/A N/A

ESG Index Returns vs Ordinary Index Returns

August 1, 2020

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

S&P 500 Index 5.64% 5.64% 2.38% 11.94% 11.99% 11.46%

MSCI USA GR Index 5.94% 5.94% 3.64% 13.11% 12.42% 11.59%

MSCI USA Extended ESG Focus GR Index 5.87% 5.87% 4.75% 14.85% 13.09% 12.13%

MSCI EAFE Index 2.36% 2.36% -8.92% -1.13% 1.21% 2.69%

MSCI EAFE Extended ESG Focus NR Index 2.44% 2.44% -8.94% -0.51% 1.23% 2.61%

MSCI EM Index 9.01% 9.01% -1.53% 6.89% 3.19% 6.55%

MSCI EM Extended ESG Focus NR Index 9.65% 9.65% -0.86% 7.71% 3.60% 7.41%

Bloomberg Barclays MSCI US Corp 1-5 Yr ESG Focus TR Index 0.82% 0.82% 4.28% 6.43% 4.13% 3.53%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index 3.25% 3.25% 8.44% 12.44% 7.21% 6.36%

Bloomberg Barclays MSCI US Corp ESG Focus TR Index 3.31% 3.31% 9.07% 13.12% 7.42% 6.46%

S&P Green Bond Select Index 1.36% 1.36% 4.05% 3.53% N/A N/A

ESG Index Returns vs Ordinary Index Returns

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member of our investment team:

Tom Quealy, Chief Executive Officer – [email protected] Larry Whistler, CFA, President/Chief Investment Officer – [email protected] Nick Verbanic, CFP® V.P./Portfolio Manager – [email protected] Matthew Krajna, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Director of Equity Research –[email protected]

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