update from the uk deafness and asbestos working parties fro… · asbestos working parties robert...
TRANSCRIPT
07/04/2016
1
Update from the UK deafness and
asbestos working parties Robert Brooks, Philip Jacob, Darren Goldthorpe
and John Wilson
07 April 2016
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Agenda
07 April 2016 2
• Deafness: Update on recent experience
• Deafness: The future - new loss quantification guidelines
• Asbestos: Survey 2015 vs. 2009 market estimate
• Asbestos: Mesothelioma deaths
• Asbestos: Key points and this year’s work
07/04/2016
2
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Update from the UK deafness working party
Recent claims experience – Philip Jacob
07 April 2016 3
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Recent experience – monthly notifications
07 April 2016 4
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan
-20
13
Feb
-20
13
Ma
r-2
01
3
Ap
r-2
01
3
Ma
y-2
01
3
Ju
n-2
01
3
Ju
l-2
01
3
Au
g-2
01
3
Se
p-2
01
3
Oct-
20
13
No
v-2
01
3
De
c-2
01
3
Ja
n-2
01
4
Feb
-20
14
Ma
r-2
01
4
Ap
r-2
01
4
Ma
y-2
01
4
Ju
n-2
01
4
Ju
l-2
01
4
Au
g-2
01
4
Se
p-2
01
4
Oct-
20
14
No
v-2
01
4
De
c-2
01
4
Ja
n-2
01
5
Feb
-20
15
Ma
r-2
01
5
Ap
r-2
01
5
Ma
y-2
01
5
Ju
n-2
01
5
Ju
l-2
01
5
Au
g-2
01
5
Se
p-2
01
5
07/04/2016
3
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Update from the UK deafness working party
Impact of the Quantification Guidelines on NIHL Claims –
Darren Goldthorpe
07 April 2016 5
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the present
07 April 2016 6
• The DHSS method of assessing disability is used:
• Hearing averaged at 1-3 kHz in each ear.
• Better ear weighted to reflect that it will ‘assist’ the worse hearing ear
and compared with expected age related loss
07/04/2016
4
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the present
07 April 2016 7
• The DHSS method of assessing disability is used:
• Hearing averaged at 1-3 kHz in each ear.
• In claims the loss is compared with age related loss and
a reduction made.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the present
07 April 2016 8
07/04/2016
5
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the problems
07 April 2016 9
• Very arbitrary method and ignores the impact of other conditions, it
assumes all damage left after deduction for age is noise related.
Normal Hearing
Ignored Abnormal Hearing
attributed to noise
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 10
• The Lutman, Coles and Buffin Guidelines (the quantification
guidelines) were formally published in February 2016 but have been
available online since October.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/coa.12569/abstract
• They make calculation of loss entirely dependent upon the level of
loss seen at 4 kHz.
• No damage at 4 kHz is going to make a significant overall loss
unlikely.
• Most people agree that it will lower level of loss.
07/04/2016
6
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 11
• Introduces a new comparison line for calculations
• The large gaps seen under the DHSS method will always reduce.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 12
• In theory this should reduce disability, particularly where there is an
excess loss unlikely to arise as a result of noise damage
07/04/2016
7
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 13
• But there will be cases where the loss increases under the new
method.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 14
• There are also gaps in the paper.
• Although it gives guidance on how to calculate loss on one ear it is
completely silent as to how a binaural calculation will be made.
• Professor Lutman has indicated that better ear weighting should
remain but has yet to commit to a methodology.
• This is a significant defect and will lead to uncertainty.
• There are already various arguments springing up, particularly
surrounding how the ‘better’ ear is determined.
07/04/2016
8
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 15
• Which is the better ear – an extreme example:
• How any software determines ‘better ear’ will have a big
impact.
• Right Better:
0dB loss
• Left Better:
7dB Loss
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 16
• BC Legal have identified eight different methods of calculating
binaural disability – until a definitive method is selected market wide
analysis isn’t possible with any degree of certainty.
• Desktop Claims Supervisor application allows for analysis of resulting
loss across all of these methods.
• Will there be a flurry of De Minimis arguments?
• Bear in mind that a claim cannot be De Minimis if there is a diagnosis
of Noise Induced Tinnitus.
07/04/2016
9
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 17
• Expect further debate on late onset tinnitus.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 18
• Expect further debate on late onset tinnitus.
07/04/2016
10
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 19
• We have seen previous evidence of coaching:
Just tell the solicitor 18
months, or he will not
take your case on.
Just tell the solicitor you
have ringing in your
ears, or he will not take
your case on.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 20
• Assuming 3dB or less to qualify as De Minimis:
– Increase from 24 DHSS claims to 51 on Full Method
– Increase from 54 to 136 if tinnitus issues can be addressed
– Requires better ear determined at start of process.
07/04/2016
11
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 21
• Assuming 3dB or less to qualify as De Minimis:
– Increase from 24 DHSS claims to 42 on Full Method (-9)
– Increase from 54 to 114 if tinnitus issues can be addressed (-22)
– Better ear determined at end of process.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 22
• Assuming 5dB or less to qualify as De Minimis
• Reduction from 238 (165+73) to 193 (134+59).
07/04/2016
12
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 23
• Choosing the right case to argue De Minimis using the LCB guidance
is essential:
– We do not want a case with accompanying tinnitus to start with
– We do not want a case with large losses at 4 kHz
– Ideal case
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 24
• Choosing the right case to argue De Minimis using the LCB guidance
is essential:
– We do not want a case with accompanying tinnitus to start with
– We do not want a case with large losses at 4 kHz
– Loss is only 3.93db but big loss at 4 kHz allows more argument.
07/04/2016
13
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 25
• There needs to be a thorough analysis of the cases, rushing off just
because a software package says 2 dB loss on the final output without
further thought could undermine the paper.
• A lot of Defendant’s are running De Minimis arguments badly.
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 26
07/04/2016
14
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 27
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 28
• Expect new methods to be suggested
• *************screenshot from symposium – all frequency method*****
07/04/2016
15
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 29
• Experts largely instructed by Claimant’s have already prepared papers
seeking to discredit guidelines:
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Assessing Disability – the future
07 April 2016 30
• Expect damages inflation from more serious attempts at claiming
hearing aids.
07/04/2016
16
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Update from the UK asbestos working party
Survey 2015 vs. 2009 market estimate
07 April 2016 31
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Survey 2015 vs. 2009 market estimate
Insurance costs 2009 to 2014 (£m)
07 April 2016 32 Assuming the 2015 survey covers 80% of the insurance market
£0m
£500m
£1,000m
£1,500m
£2,000m
£2,500m
2009-2014 Projected(Scenario 23 & Scenario 2B)
2009-2014 Actual - ImpliedSettled (Notified No. claims xSettled average)
2009-2014 Actual - Incurred(Notified No. claims xIncurred average)
07/04/2016
17
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Survey 2015 vs. 2009 market estimate
Insurance costs 2009 to 2014 (£m)
07 April 2016 33 Assuming the 2015 survey covers 80% of the insurance market
£0m
£200m
£400m
£600m
£800m
£1,000m
£1,200m
£1,400m
£1,600m
£1,800m
Mesothelioma Asbestosis Lung Cancer Pleural Thickening
Scenario 23 / Scenario 2B Implied settled basis (Notified x Settled) Incurred basis
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Survey 2015 vs. 2009 market estimate
Mesothelioma Number of claims (includes nils)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Scenario 23* Survey
Average Claim Size (£) (includes nils)
07 April 2016 34
£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
£70,000
£80,000
£90,000
£100,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Scenario 23* Settled basis
Incurred basis
* Assuming 23% nil rate based on 5yr weighted average from Survey 2015
07/04/2016
18
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Update from the UK asbestos working party
Mesothelioma deaths
07 April 2016 35
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Mesothelioma deaths
Age-cohort model - Nielsen et al (2013) • No constructing exposure measures and no projecting of future populations.
• Inspired by the chain ladder methodology.
• Basically an age-period-cohort model using a GLM in R to fit parameters.
• Similar forecasts produced for age–cohort model and the age–period–cohort
model, so used age–cohort model.
• Simplifications taken : Discards cohorts younger than 1966, no future cohorts
and only projecting ages 35–89.
• Provides a simple benchmark method, checking the robustness of other more
sophisticated methods.
07 April 2016 36
07/04/2016
19
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Mesothelioma deaths Actual experience up to 2013 and all recent projections
07 April 2016 37
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GB
male
meso
thelio
ma d
eath
s (
ag
es 2
0-8
9)
Actual HSE Non-clearence (2015)
Nielsen et al - AC (2015)* AWP (2009) Adjusted HSE
* A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Britain - Jens Nielsen et al - September 2015
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Mesothelioma deaths Actual experience up to 2013 and rescaled projections
07 April 2016 38
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
GB
male
meso
thelio
ma d
eath
s (
ag
es 2
0-8
9)
Actual HSE Non-clearence (2015)
Nielsen et al - AC (2015)* AWP (2009) Adjusted HSE
* A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Britain - Jens Nielsen et al - September 2015
07/04/2016
20
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Mesothelioma deaths Distribution of actual age by year of death
07 April 2016 39
67 80 66 86 74 94 108 127 146 175 182 174 195 206 122 171 158 206 227 233 239 270 277 315 312
353 404 388 248 309
278
314 315 324 341
368 373 404 407
397 434 447 289 295 334
273 323 321 310
314 372 397 380
363 433 416
224 243 259
276 287 295 315 332
311 292 313 286
351 346 218 215 230 204 226 237
220 223 225 198 216 200 161 163 226 261 233 224 198 228 176 159 139 133 114 115 92 83
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f G
B m
ale
meso
thelio
ma d
eath
s
90+ 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 20-59
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Mesothelioma deaths Average age: HSE (2015)* vs. experience
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89
Perc
en
tag
e d
evia
tio
n :
(A
-E)/
E
Age band
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
07 April 2016 40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
A-E (25) 4 (15) (78) 81 42
(A-E)/E (1%) 0% (1%) (4%) 4% 2%
* AWP recreation of HSE central estimate less than 0.3% difference
07/04/2016
21
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Update from the UK asbestos working party
Key points and plan for next year
07 April 2016 41
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Key points and this year’s work
Key points • After 5 years our market estimates are reasonably in line at the total level.
• However we are beginning to see deviations from our assumptions.
– The propensity for mesothelioma sufferers to make a claim.
– Age of mesothelioma claimants.
• GB male mesothelioma deaths still to peak
– Key questions still: When will deaths peak? How will they run off from the peak?
– HSE recalibrated their “non-clearance” model. The peak is one year later (in 2016)
and 1% higher (at 2,008 deaths) than their 2013 projection.
– Nielsen et al (2015) has a peak in 2017 of 2,079 deaths.
– AWP models based on deaths up to 2008.
07 April 2016 42
07/04/2016
22
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
Key points and this year’s work
What is the AWP doing? • Investigating initial findings and potentially a new insurance market estimate
for GIRO 2016.
– Focus on the estimation of mesothelioma deaths and propensity for mesothelioma
sufferers to make a claim.
– Looking at recreating the Nielsen et al and HSE 2015 models.
• Continue to collect market data to support a new market estimate.
– Announced via the GI newsletter and on the IFoA website.
– Deadline is 22nd April.
07 April 2016 43
Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations
Dark blue
R17 G52 B88
Gold
R217 G171 B22
Mid blue
R64 G150 B184
Secondary colour palette
Primary colour palette
Light grey
R63 G69 B72
Pea green
R121 G163 B42
Forest green
R0 G132 B82
Bottle green
R17 G179 B162
Cyan
R0 G156 B200
Light blue
R124 G179 B225
Violet
R128 G118 B207
Purple
R143 G70 B147
Fuscia
R233 G69 B140
Red
R200 G30 B69
Orange
R238 G116 29
Dark grey
R63 G69 B72
07 April 2016 44
Expressions of individual views by members of the Institute and Faculty of
Actuaries and its staff are encouraged.
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter.
Questions Comments