update on irish & eu beef market situation · growing the success of irish food &...
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Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
July 2016
Update on Irish & EU Beef Market Situation
Joe Burke
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Increase
2015:
+6.2%
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200
Tho
usa
nd
He
ad
Annual Calf Registrations: 2010 - 2015
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0.991 0.982 1.010
1.104 1.149 1.254
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
he
ad
Dairy
Suckler
Total Calf Births 2013-2015
Source – Calf Births: AIM
Calf Registrations increased by 6.2% / 133,000 head in 2015
+9.1%
+2.9%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
+3.0%
+5.1% +1.2%
+19.6%
+20.5%
-5.5% +6%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
FR LM CH AA HE BB SIM
2014 2015
Calf Registrations by Breed 2015 vs ‘14
Source - AIM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000
Total Dairy Suckler
2015 2016
-20,000
+69,000
+49,000
Calf Registrations up 2.6% to-date (w/e. 15/07)
Source – ICBF / AIM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
(000’ head) 2015 2016 % change
Total
NI
GB
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
France
Other EU
Libya
Other int. mkt.s
122,199
26,509
4,639
10,117
25,556
43,077
347
8,343
725
433
2,453
92,231
14,174
1,593
12,055
29,965
26,627
171
5,699
1,947
0
0
-25%
-47%
-66%
+19%
+17%
-38%
-51%
-32%
+170%
-100%
-100%
Live Cattle Exports 2016 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 25th June
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0-12 12-24 24-36
2015 2016
Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1st of June
-35,000
+83,000
+55,000 Source: AIM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
0-12 12-24 24-36
2015 2016
Female Beef Cattle No.s by Age Category on 1st of June
Source: AIM
-9,000
+57,000 +20,000
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2016
2015
Irish weekly finished cattle supplies (head)
2.9% Increase in Irish Cattle Supplies
(+24,390 head)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Year to-date, Irish R3 steer price 4.5% lower vs. 2015 (€3.87 vs. €4.05)
Latest Irish Price Jul ’16: €3.81/kg vs. Jul. ‘15: €4.18/kg
200
250
300
350
400 2015
2016
Producer Prices: Ireland R3 Steer (c/kg excl VAT)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. UK (c/kg excl VAT)
Year to-date, Irish R3 steer price 8% below average UK price (33c)
Latest Irish Price €3.81/kg vs. UK: €3.96/kg
200
250
300
350
400
450 UK R3 Steer
Ireland R3 Steer
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
British Cattle Price Development in Sterling terms
£ Ste
rling p
/kg
Last week: GB R3 steers average £3.42 @ 83.6p = €4.09/kg
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Currency Exchange Rates
Average for 2014: €1: £0.806
20th July 2016: €1: £0.836
Value of Euro in Sterling terms
For 2015: €1: £0.726
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
Jan 1
0
Jul 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jul 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jul 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jul 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jul 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jul 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jul 1
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
83.6p
Currency Exchange Rates Value of Euro in Sterling terms since 2010
Source: Central Bank of Ireland
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Continental EU (c/kg excl VAT)
Year to-date, Irish R3 steer price 5% above Continental EU average
Latest Irish Price €3.81/kg vs. Continental EU av.: €3.54/kg
In Italy, R3 young bull price: €3.80/kg, Spain: €3.61, France: €3.49, Germany €3.42
200
250
300
350
400 Ireland R3 Steer
Continental European R3 Young Bull
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
© 2010 Mintel International Group. All
rights reserved. Confidential to Mintel
16
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
European Beef / Cattle Supplies 2016
(EU Commission)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Germany (EU Forecast)
Volume : +0.5%
France
(Jan to 12 Jun)
Volume: -0.9%
Av Price: +2.5%
Britain
(12 wks to 22 May)
Volume: +2.1%
Av Price: -2.8%
Home Market
(12 wks to 21 June)
Volume: -1%
Av Price: -1%
EU Beef Retail Sales / Consumption 2016
Italy (EU Forecast)
Volume : -1.5%
Netherlands (EU Forecast)
Volume : +1.8%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK Beef Market (2015 data)
• Population: 65 million
• Beef Consumption: 1,184,000 t. (18.4kg/capita)
• Beef Production (905,000 t.)
• Imports 434,000 t. / Exports 136,000 t.
• Ireland has a 70% share of UK beef imports
• Supplying key retail and foodservice customers
• Product profile well-matched: steer/heifer, grass-based, QA
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK Market Activity
Irish Beef Promotion in Birmingham
Brexit Breifing for Industry
Workshop on managing currency volatility
Mentoring, “meet the buyer” sessions
Trade and consumer promotions
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
July 2016
Update on Irish & EU Beef Market Situation
Joe Burke