Update on Texas

Demographic Characteristics and Trends

Texas Department of Insurance Texas Consumer Health

Assistance Program

January 26, 2012Austin, TX

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313  9,535,483  1,486,170  18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632  6,392,017  1,261,385  24.6%

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

Growing States, 2000‐2010

2

Percent Change-21% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 81.8%

Number of People82 - 9,999

10,000 - 24,999

25,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 4,092,459

Total Population by County, 2010

3

Total Population Population % Change, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Percent ChangeDue to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangeNatural

IncreaseNet

MigrationPercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33

*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950‐2009

4

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 to2001

2001 to2002

2002 to2003

2003 to2004

2004 to2005

2005 to2006

2006 to2007

2007 to2008

2008 to2009

InternationalState-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2009 Estimates.

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

5

Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000‐2009

44%24%

33%

28%50% 40%

23%8% 15%

5%18% 12%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Net domesticmigration

Internationalmigration

Total

OtherBlackHispanicWhite

67% of all migrants

6Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

States with Largest Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 

7

State Estimate (thousands) Range

California  2,550 (2,350 ‐ 2,750) Texas  1,650 (1,450 ‐ 1,850) Florida  825 (725 ‐ 950) 

New York  625 (525 ‐ 725) New Jersey  550 (425 ‐ 650) Illinois  525 (425 ‐ 625) Georgia  425 (300 ‐ 550) Arizona  400 (275 ‐ 500) 

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011)

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black11%

NH Other4%

Hispanic or Latino32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other6%

Hispanic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census counts. 8

Number of People60 - 9,999

10,000 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 1,349,646

Population by County, 2010

9

Non-Hispanic White Hispanic

Number of People18 - 9,999

10,000 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 1,671,540

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Number of People0 - 9,999

10,000 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 754,258

Population by County, 2010

10

Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian

Number of People0 - 9,999

10,000 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 149,999

150,000 - 249,853

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Percent Change-51.4% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 62.1%

Less than 100 population

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010

11

Non-Hispanic White Hispanic

Percent Change-29.4% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 99.9%

100% - 165.7%

Less than 100 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Percent Change-49% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 74.9%

75% - 3000%

Less than 100 population

Percent Change in Population by County,  2000 to 2010

12

Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian

Percent Change-27.9% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 697%

less than 100 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

AngloBlackHispanicOther

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. 13

Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000‐2040

14

Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Median age

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.

Texas Population Pyramid, 2010

15Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.

Median age

Texas Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2010

16

Race/Ethnicity 2000 2010

Change Percent of Population

Numeric Percent 2000 2010

NH White 8,426,166 9,074,684 648,518 7.7 56.3 49.6

Hispanic 4,282,901 6,143,144 1,860,243 43.4 28.6 33.6

NH Black 1,631,448 2,076,282 444,834 27.3 10.9 11.4

NH Asian 415,219 716,968 301,749 72.7 2.8 3.9

NH Other 209,327 268,659 59,332 28.3 1.4 1.5

Texas 14,965,061 18,279,737 3,314,676 22.2 100.0 100.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.

Texas Population Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2010

Race/Ethnicity 2000 2010

Change Percent of Population

Numeric Percent 2000 2010

NH White 2,507,147 2,322,661 ‐184,486 ‐7.4 42.6 33.8

Hispanic 2,386,765 3,317,777 931,012 39.0 40.5 48.3

NH Black 732,807 810,543 77,736 10.6 12.5 11.8

NH Asian 139,226 231,458 92,232 66.3 2.4 3.4

NH Other 120,814 183,385 62,571 51.8 2.0 2.7

Texas 5,886,759 6,865,824 979,065 16.6 100.0 100.0

17Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.

Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity, 2010

18

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

NH White Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Summary File 1 Data.

Number of People12 - 9,999

10,000 - 24,999

25,000 - 49,999

50,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 333,487

Percent6.9% - 9.9%

10% - 14.9%

15% - 19.9%

20% - 24.9%

25% - 31.1%

19

Percent of total populationPopulation 65 years plus

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Summary File 1 Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Population Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2010

Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected

2000 2040

20

Percent5% - 9.9%

10% - 14.9%

15% - 19.9%

20% - 24.9%

25% - 30.7%

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Projected Population Among Older Texans

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Age 65‐74Age 75‐85Age 85+

21Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Anglo

Hispanic

African American

Other

Projection of Ethnicity of Texas PopulationAged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario. 22

Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have private insurance.Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data

Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicityand Type of Insurance, 2010

23

14

23

37

202625

32 29

15

22

61

45

34

66

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

None Public Private

Percent Health Insurance Coverage By Immigrant Status & Type of Insurance, 2010

24

19

29

52

2723

50

62

11

26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

None Public Private

Native Naturalized Non‐CitizenNote: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have private insurance.Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data

Percent Under 65 Years of Age Who Are Uninsured by County, 2009

25Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2009.Map produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Percent Under 19 Years of Age Who Are Uninsured by County, 2009

26Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2009.Map produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Percent at or below 138% of Poverty Who Are Uninsured by County, 2009

27Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2009.Map produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

Percent of Texans Reporting a Self‐CareLimitation or Any Disability by Age, 2010

Source: Office of the State Demographer tabulation of U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010 28

0.9 1.624.84

7.45

16.19

34.88

4.28.49

22.12

32.16

52.83

77.98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

18 and Under 19 to 55 56 to 65 66 to 75 76 to 85 Over 85

Self‐CareLimitation

Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting aSelf‐Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming

Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability

29

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

30Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario

Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010‐2040

31

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

 Total

 Latino

 Anglo

 African American

 Other

Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario

Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040

32

LE 15%

15-20%

20-25%

25-30%

30-37.5%

2010 2040

Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario

Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010

33

0

.01-.5

.51-1

1.1-1.5

1.51-4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts and Texas Medical Board (physicians).

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000 to 2010

95

53

175

110

159

020406080100120140160180200

Not Border Border Not Border Border

Non‐Metro Non‐Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total

2009

Sources: Census 2009 EstimatesDepartment of State Health Services, Health Professions Resource Center Database

Physicians per 100,000 byMetro & Border Status for Counties, 2009

34

Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008

35

0

GT 0 - LE 5

GT 5 - LE 10

GT 10 - LE 20

GT 20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2008Population Estimate (population), and Texas Medical Board (physicians).

Physicians inDirect Patient

Care2004 2009 Increase Percent

Primary Care 15,374 16,830 1,456 9.6

Specialist 19,558 22,544 2,986 15.3

Total 34,932 39,374 4,442 12.7Population (Millions) 22.4 24.8 2.4 10.5

Source: Tabulation of Texas Medical Board, Physician Licensure Database; Database maintained and supplied by Department of StateHealth Services, Center for Health Statistics, Health Professions Resource Center

Physicians in Direct Patient Care, 2004 and 2009

36

Demographics & Destiny

37

Demographics & Destiny

• Texas is growing.• Texas is becoming more urban.• Texas is becoming more diverse.• Texas is young but aging.• All of these factors along with public policy changes will influence the number of individuals in need of insurance.

38

Contact 

Office: (512) 463‐8390 or (210) 458‐6530E‐mail: State.Demographer@osd.state.tx.usWebsite: http://osd.state.tx.us

Office of the State Demographer

39