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UNDERSTANDINGRISKInnovation in Disaster Risk Assessment
Proceeds from the 2010 UR Forum
Pub
lic D
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osur
e A
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rized
Pub
lic D
iscl
osur
e A
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rized
Pub
lic D
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osur
e A
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Pub
lic D
iscl
osur
e A
utho
rized
v
Ack
no
wle
dg
me
nts
vii
Fo
rew
ord
—D
isas
ter
Ris
k: C
on
fro
nti
ng
th
e I
ne
vit
able
ix
Ov
erv
iew
1
Hai
ti: J
anu
ary
12
an
d B
eyo
nd
6
Flo
od
s an
d D
rou
gh
ts: A
sse
ssin
g a
nd
Pre
dic
tin
g t
he
Ris
ks
10
D
isas
ter
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t in
Cu
rre
nt
and
Fu
ture
Clim
ate
s
14
F
arm
ing
Dat
a: W
hat
’s N
ew
in A
gri
cult
ure
Ris
k M
od
elin
g?
18
C
om
mu
nit
y-B
ase
d R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
22
M
akin
g E
nd
s M
ee
t: H
ow
Co
mm
un
itie
s C
an U
se R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
sult
s
26
R
isk
Pe
rce
pti
on
an
d C
om
mu
nic
atio
n
28
B
lack
Sw
ans
and
Wh
ite
Wh
ale
s
32
E
xtra
ctio
n o
f E
xpo
sure
In
form
atio
n f
rom
Ear
th O
bse
rvat
ion
36
C
row
dso
urc
ing
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t: W
isd
om
of
the
Cro
wd
s
40
O
pe
n S
ou
rce
Sp
atia
l We
b a
nd
Op
en
Dat
a
45
C
limat
e R
isk
Mo
de
ling
: Man
agin
g E
xtre
me
s To
war
d S
ust
ain
abili
ty
48
R
isk
Mo
de
ling
Be
yon
d I
nsu
ran
ce—
An
alyz
ing
th
e C
atas
tro
ph
e E
xpo
sure
of
the
Sta
te
52
S
ub
-Re
gio
nal
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
ts a
s a
Too
l fo
r N
atio
nal
In
ve
stm
en
t P
lan
nin
g
58
C
AP
RA
: Me
asu
rin
g t
he
Un
me
asu
rab
le
66
T
he
Glo
bal
Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
po
rt (
GA
R)
68
T
he
Glo
bal
Ear
thq
uak
e M
od
el (
GE
M)
Tab
le o
f C
on
ten
ts
a: J
1an
uH
ait
blo
e G
Th
6
Ris
kM
4
: MA
PC
A5
8R
A5
8
52
b-R
eS
Th
is v
olu
me
is a
pro
du
ct o
f th
e s
taff
of
the
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank.
Th
e f
ind
ing
s, in
terp
reta
tio
ns,
an
d c
on
clu
sio
ns
exp
ress
ed
in t
his
v
olu
me
do
no
t n
ece
ssar
ily r
efl
ect
th
e v
iew
s o
f th
e E
xecu
tiv
e D
ire
cto
rs o
f T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k o
r th
e g
ov
ern
me
nts
th
ey
rep
rese
nt.
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
do
es
no
t g
uar
ante
e t
he
acc
ura
cy o
f th
e d
ata
incl
ud
ed
in t
his
wo
rk. T
he
bo
un
dar
ies,
co
lors
, de
no
min
atio
ns,
an
d
oth
er
info
rmat
ion
sh
ow
n o
n a
ny
map
in t
his
wo
rk d
o n
ot
imp
ly a
ny
jud
gm
en
t o
n t
he
par
t o
f T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k co
nce
rnin
g t
he
le
gal
sta
tus
of
any
terr
ito
ry o
r th
e e
nd
ors
em
en
t o
r ac
cep
tan
ce o
f su
ch b
ou
nd
arie
s.
Pu
blis
he
d in
Was
hin
gto
n D
C N
ov
em
be
r, 2
01
0E
dit
ed
by
Em
ma
Ph
illip
s, T
ho
mas
Gru
bis
ich
& B
rad
ley
Lyo
nD
esi
gn
an
d la
you
t b
y M
iki F
ern
ánd
ez
(mik
i@u
ltra
de
sig
ns.
com
), W
ash
ing
ton
, DC
Co
pyr
igh
t ©
20
10
by
the
In
tern
atio
nal
Ban
k fo
r R
eco
nst
ruct
ion
an
d D
ev
elo
pm
en
t/T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k1
81
8 H
Str
ee
t, N
.W.
Was
hin
gto
n, D
C 2
04
33
U.S
.A.
All
rig
hts
re
serv
ed
Man
ufa
ctu
red
in t
he
Un
ite
d S
tate
s o
f A
me
rica
Fir
st p
rin
tin
g N
ov
em
be
r 2
01
0
viv
Wit
h f
ive
hu
nd
red
att
en
de
es
rep
rese
nti
ng
ov
er
on
e h
un
dre
d c
ou
ntr
ies,
th
e U
nd
ers
tan
din
g R
isk
(UR
) F
oru
m w
as a
tru
ly g
lob
al e
ve
nt
that
bro
ug
ht
tog
eth
er
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t e
xpe
rts
and
pra
ctit
ion
ers
fro
m a
rou
nd
th
e w
orl
d. T
his
co
mm
un
ity,
ho
we
ve
r, e
xte
nd
s b
eyo
nd
th
e f
oru
m
atte
nd
ee
s to
th
e e
igh
tee
n h
un
dre
d o
n-l
ine
par
tici
pan
ts. I
t w
as in
th
is c
olla
bo
rati
ve
an
d p
arti
cip
ato
ry s
pir
it
that
th
e U
R C
om
mu
nit
y w
as b
orn
an
d w
e w
ou
ld li
ke t
o t
han
k e
ve
ry o
ne
of
you
fo
r yo
ur
con
trib
uti
on
an
d
de
dic
atio
n t
o s
har
ing
yo
ur
kno
wle
dg
e a
nd
exp
ert
ise
in in
no
vat
ive
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
t ap
pro
ach
es.
Th
ere
are
an
ov
erw
he
lmin
g n
um
be
r o
f p
eo
ple
th
at h
elp
ed
bu
ild t
he
UR
co
mm
un
ity.
We
can
no
t m
en
tio
n
the
m a
ll, b
ut
a fe
w s
tan
d o
ut.
In
par
ticu
lar,
we
wo
uld
like
to
giv
e a
sp
eci
al t
han
ks t
o t
he
Se
ssio
n L
ead
s w
ho
pro
vid
ed
so
mu
ch t
ime
an
d e
ffo
rt in
org
aniz
ing
th
eir
se
ssio
ns,
mo
de
rati
ng
th
e o
n-l
ine
dia
log
ue
, pre
sen
tin
g
in t
he
Ig
nit
e, a
nd
wri
tin
g t
he
su
mm
arie
s yo
u w
ill r
ead
in t
his
pu
blic
atio
n. T
han
k yo
u t
o: D
ieg
o A
rias
, Lau
ren
Au
gu
stin
e, H
ann
ah B
ren
kert
-Sm
ith
, Om
ar D
. Car
do
na,
Ro
wan
Do
ug
las,
Ro
n E
gu
chi,
Dan
iele
Eh
rlic
h, S
ush
il
Gu
pta
, Ch
ris
Ho
lme
s, D
anie
l Ku
ll, P
atri
ck M
eie
r, S
tuar
t M
ille
r, S
erg
io M
ora
, Pra
ve
en
Par
de
shi,
Ed
war
d P
ickl
e,
Ru
i P
inh
o,
Mar
k R
asm
uso
n,
Pao
lo R
eg
gia
ni,
Ju
lio S
erj
e,
Ke
nn
eth
L. V
ero
sub
, O
lga
Wilh
elm
i, an
d M
ary
Lo
u
Zo
bac
k.
We
wo
uld
lik
e t
o e
xte
nd
ou
r g
rati
tud
e t
o a
ll o
ur
UR
par
tne
rs:
UR
was
sp
on
sore
d b
y th
e G
lob
al F
acili
ty
for
Dis
aste
r R
ed
uct
ion
an
d R
eco
ve
ry (
GF
DR
R),
info
De
v a
nd
th
e K
no
wle
dg
e S
trat
eg
y G
rou
p (
KS
G),
in
par
tne
rsh
ip w
ith
th
e G
lob
al E
arth
qu
ake
Mo
de
l (G
EM
) an
d t
he
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns
Inte
rnat
ion
al S
trat
eg
y
for
Dis
aste
r R
ed
uct
ion
(U
N I
SD
R).
Co
llab
ora
tiv
e U
R p
artn
ers
in
clu
de
: th
e A
cad
em
y o
f E
du
cati
on
al
De
ve
lop
me
nt
(AE
D),
AIR
– W
orl
dw
ide
, C
en
ter
for
Inte
rnat
ion
al E
arth
Sci
en
ce I
nfo
rmat
ion
Ne
two
rk
(CIE
SIN
)— E
arth
In
stit
ute
Co
lum
bia
Un
ive
rsit
y, D
elt
are
s/D
elf
t H
ydra
ulic
s, D
isas
ter
Re
sist
ant
Bu
sin
ess
(DR
B)
Too
lkit
, th
e E
uro
pe
an C
om
mis
sio
n J
oin
t R
ese
arch
Ce
nte
r (J
RC
), E
val
uac
ión
de
Rie
sgo
s N
atu
rale
s
(ER
N),
Fo
rtiu
sOn
e,
the
H
aiti
P
ost
er
Pro
ject
, Im
age
Cat
, In
term
ap
Tech
no
log
ies
Ris
k M
anag
em
en
t
Ap
plic
atio
ns,
th
e I
nte
rnat
ion
al F
ed
era
tio
n o
f R
ed
Cro
ss a
nd
Re
d C
resc
en
t S
oci
eti
es
(IF
RC
), L
eic
a
Ge
osy
ste
ms
Ge
osp
atia
l So
luti
on
s, t
he
Nat
ion
al A
cad
em
ies,
th
e N
atio
nal
Ce
nte
r fo
r A
tmo
sph
eri
c R
ese
arch
(NC
AR
), O
pe
nG
eo
, th
e U
nit
ed
Nat
ion
s In
stit
ute
fo
r Tr
ain
ing
an
d R
ese
arch
(UN
ITA
R),
Op
era
tio
nal
Sat
elli
te
Ap
plic
atio
ns
Pro
gra
m (
UN
OS
AT
), U
shah
idi,
V1
Mag
azin
e,
and
th
e W
illis
Re
sear
ch N
etw
ork
. A
dd
itio
nal
par
tne
rs i
ncl
ud
ed
Go
og
le,
Mic
roso
ft,
NA
SA
, th
e U
.S.
Sta
te D
ep
artm
en
t an
d Y
aho
o!
for
the
Ran
do
m
Hac
ks o
f K
ind
ne
ss e
ve
nt
and
th
e C
risi
s C
om
mo
ns
for
the
DC
Cri
sis
Cam
p.
A b
ig t
han
k yo
u t
o o
ur
keyn
ote
sp
eak
ers
: An
ee
sh C
ho
pra
, Ro
wan
Do
ug
las,
Sh
elle
y B
Le
ibo
wit
z, E
d P
arso
ns,
and
Mar
gar
eta
Wah
lstr
om
. To
th
e e
nti
re W
orl
d B
ank
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k Te
am:
Air
es
Co
nce
icao
, A
na
Daz
a, A
na
Mar
ia T
orr
es,
Arm
and
o G
uzm
an, B
rad
ley
Lyo
n, E
mm
a P
hill
ips,
Fe
rnan
do
Ram
ire
z C
ort
es,
Fra
nci
s
Gh
esq
uie
re,
Gal
en
Ev
ans,
Jo
aqu
in T
oro
, L
aura
Do
rlin
g,
Lu
is C
orr
ale
s, N
iels
Ho
lm-N
iels
en
, N
oo
sha
Taye
bi,
Osc
ar A
po
dac
a, O
scar
Ish
izaw
a, R
oss
Gar
tle
y, S
tuar
t G
ill,
Tig
uis
t F
isse
ha,
Tri
sh B
arre
tt,
Ulr
ich
Myb
oto
,
Vio
leta
Wag
ne
r, a
nd
Zu
zan
a To
mko
va—
than
k yo
u f
or
you
r ti
me
, e
ne
rgy,
an
d c
reat
ivit
y in
mak
ing
th
is
con
fere
nce
a r
eal
ity.
We
wo
uld
als
o l
ike
to
th
ank
the
Wo
rld
Ban
k’s
Ge
ne
ral
Se
rvic
es
De
par
tme
nt
for
all
the
ir h
ard
wo
rk a
nd
Se
con
dM
use
fo
r h
elp
ing
us
pu
t to
ge
the
r th
e c
om
mu
nit
y si
te.
Ack
no
wle
dg
me
nts
Sp
on
sors
Ra
nd
om
Ha
ck
s o
f K
ind
ne
ss
Co
llab
ora
tiv
e P
art
ne
rs
AIR
WO
RL
DW
IDE
Th
an
k y
ou
: To
th
e U
R C
om
mu
nit
y
Le
ss t
han
tw
o m
on
ths
afte
r it
co
nv
en
ed
in W
ash
ing
ton
, DC
, in
Ju
ne
20
10
, th
e U
nd
ers
tan
din
g R
isk
Fo
rum
too
k o
n f
resh
an
d g
rim
re
lev
ance
wh
en
mo
nso
on
flo
od
s sw
ep
t th
rou
gh
Pak
ista
n, k
illin
g n
ear
ly 1
,50
0 p
eo
ple
and
leav
ing
20
mill
ion
ho
me
less
.
Th
e F
oru
m b
rou
gh
t to
ge
the
r 5
00
dis
aste
r ri
sk e
xpe
rts
and
pra
ctit
ion
ers
, re
pre
sen
tin
g g
ov
ern
me
nt
age
n-
cie
s, r
ese
arch
inst
itu
tio
ns,
mu
ltila
tera
l org
aniz
atio
ns,
pri
vat
e s
ect
or
firm
s, n
on
go
ve
rnm
en
tal o
rgan
izat
ion
s
(NG
Os)
an
d c
om
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d o
rgan
izat
ion
s in
vo
lve
d in
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
t—al
l of
wh
om
are
se
arch
ing
for
be
tte
r w
ays
to c
on
fro
nt
and
re
du
ce r
isks
of
futu
re—
and
incr
eas
ing
ly li
kely
—ca
lam
itie
s lik
e t
he
on
e t
hat
stru
ck P
akis
tan
.
Sp
eak
er
afte
r F
oru
m s
pe
ake
r e
mp
has
ize
d t
he
me
ssag
e s
um
me
d u
p in
th
e e
eri
ly p
resc
ien
t w
ord
s o
f cl
osi
ng
keyn
ote
r M
arg
are
ta W
ahls
trö
m, U
N A
ssis
tan
t S
ecr
eta
ry-G
en
era
l fo
r D
isas
ter
Ris
k R
ed
uct
ion
:
“Ma
ny
co
un
trie
s to
da
y c
an
pre
tty
we
ll p
inp
oin
t th
e l
oc
ati
on
[o
f th
e n
ext
na
tura
l d
isa
ste
r].
It’s
go
ing
to
ha
pp
en
, if
no
t th
is y
ea
r, n
ext
ye
ar.
”
Bu
t re
cog
niz
ing
th
e in
ev
itab
ility
of
dis
aste
r—d
riv
en
to
a g
reat
ext
en
t b
y in
cau
tio
us
de
ve
lop
me
nt
in e
nv
i-
ron
me
nta
lly s
en
siti
ve
are
as a
nd
a c
han
gin
g c
limat
e—
is o
nly
a f
irst
ste
p, a
s W
ahls
trö
m a
nd
oth
er
spe
ake
rs
said
. B
eyo
nd
re
spo
nd
ing
to
dis
aste
rs, t
he
big
ge
r, m
ore
dif
ficu
lt s
tep
is d
ev
elo
pin
g b
est
pra
ctic
es
for
taki
ng
fore
han
de
d a
ctio
n t
o a
sse
ss a
nd
min
imiz
e t
he
ir im
pac
t.
Ro
wan
Do
ug
las,
Ch
airm
an o
f W
illis
Re
sear
ch N
etw
ork
, a g
lob
al r
isk
man
age
me
nt
and
insu
ran
ce in
term
ed
i-
ary
bas
ed
in L
on
do
n, s
aid
in w
rap
pin
g u
p t
he
Fo
rum
:
“Th
e m
ain
qu
est
ion
s p
ost
ed
we
re: ‘
Wh
at
is r
isk
? C
an
we
me
asu
re it
? I
f w
e u
nd
ers
tan
d it
, ca
n w
e
ma
na
ge
it b
ett
er?
’ Th
e a
nsw
er
to a
ll th
ese
qu
est
ion
s is
an
ab
solu
tely
em
ph
ati
c y
es.
”
Do
ug
las’
un
he
sita
nt
yes
was
bac
ked
up
by
thre
e d
ays
of
pre
sen
tati
on
s w
he
re r
isk
exp
ert
s an
d p
ract
itio
ne
rs
fro
m a
rou
nd
th
e w
orl
d d
eta
iled
th
e f
ast-
pac
ed
inn
ov
atio
n in
ris
k as
sess
me
nt.
Fro
m f
irst
-han
d e
xpe
rie
nce
,
the
y im
pre
ssiv
ely
do
cum
en
ted
wh
at c
an b
e d
on
e t
o b
ett
er
un
de
rsta
nd
th
e p
ote
nti
al im
pac
t o
f th
e n
ext
mo
nso
on
flo
od
s in
So
uth
Asi
a, e
arth
qu
ake
s in
th
e C
arib
be
an a
nd
Lat
in A
me
rica
, tsu
nam
is in
Eas
t A
sia,
an
d
dro
ug
hts
in S
ub
-Sah
aran
Afr
ica.
Te
chn
olo
gy—
som
e o
f it
no
w a
s u
biq
uit
ou
s as
th
e m
ob
ile p
ho
ne
—is
lead
ing
mu
ch o
f th
e in
no
vat
ion
. Sp
eak
ers
at
ne
arly
ev
ery
pre
sen
tati
on
str
ess
ed
th
at t
he
be
st s
trat
eg
ies
and
pra
c-
tice
s w
on
’t p
ay o
ff u
nle
ss t
he
y e
ng
age
all
the
sta
keh
old
ers
, be
gin
nin
g w
ith
vu
lne
rab
le l
oca
l co
mm
un
itie
s,
wh
ere
th
e r
isks
lie
wai
tin
g t
o b
eco
me
dis
aste
rs.
On
th
e f
ollo
win
g p
age
s ar
e s
um
mar
ies
of
pre
sen
tati
on
s b
y le
ade
rs o
f F
oru
m s
ess
ion
s. T
he
pre
sen
tati
on
s
and
vid
eo
re
cord
ing
s o
f th
e s
ess
ion
s ca
n b
e f
ou
nd
on
th
e U
R w
eb
site
at:
ww
w.u
nd
ers
tan
dri
sk.o
rg.
Fra
nc
is G
he
squ
iere
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k Te
am L
ead
er
Dis
ast
er
Ris
k:
Co
nfr
on
tin
g t
he
In
ev
itab
le
Fo
rew
ord
Photo courtesy of NASA
Wh
at is
ris
k? C
an w
e m
eas
ure
it?
If W
e u
nd
ers
tan
d it
, can
we
man
age
it b
ett
er?
Th
e U
nd
ers
tan
din
g R
isk
(UR
): In
no
vat
ion
in D
isas
ter
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t co
nfe
ren
ce a
dd
ress
ed
th
ese
imp
ort
ant
qu
est
ion
s. T
he
ev
en
t
exp
lore
d b
est
pra
ctic
es
in a
var
iety
of
top
ics
ran
gin
g f
rom
op
en
so
urc
e r
isk
mo
de
ling
to
co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
. Ne
w a
pp
roac
he
s in
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
we
re s
ho
wca
sed
, fo
cusi
ng
on
te
chn
olo
gic
al d
ev
elo
p-
me
nts
an
d t
he
be
ne
fits
of
incl
usi
ve
par
tne
rsh
ips.
Th
e U
R c
on
fere
nce
was
att
en
de
d b
y o
ffic
ials
fro
m g
ov
ern
me
nt
age
nci
es,
re
sear
ch in
stit
uti
on
s, m
ult
ilate
ral
org
aniz
atio
ns,
pri
vat
e s
ect
or
firm
s, n
on
go
ve
rnm
en
tal
org
aniz
atio
ns
(NG
Os)
an
d c
om
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d o
rgan
i-
zati
on
s in
vo
lve
d in
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
t. P
rio
r to
th
e c
on
fere
nce
a s
eri
es
of
on
-lin
e d
iscu
ssio
ns
on
th
e
sess
ion
to
pic
s w
ere
le
d b
y e
xpe
rts
in t
he
fie
ld a
t th
e U
R c
om
mu
nit
y si
te:
ww
w.u
nd
ers
tan
dri
sk.o
rg.
Th
e
UR
co
mm
un
ity
site
was
bu
ilt a
s a
pla
tfo
rm f
or
exp
ert
s an
d p
ract
itio
ne
rs i
n d
isas
ter
risk
man
age
me
nt
to
exc
han
ge
ide
as, s
har
e in
form
atio
n, a
nd
dis
cuss
inn
ov
ativ
e r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t p
ract
ice
s.
UR
was
org
aniz
ed
in c
on
jun
ctio
n w
ith
th
e O
utr
eac
h M
ee
tin
g o
f th
e G
lob
al E
arth
qu
ake
Mo
de
l (G
EM
) in
itia
-
tiv
e. O
the
r si
de
ev
en
ts in
clu
de
d a
DC
Cri
sis
Cam
p o
rgan
ize
d b
y th
e C
risi
s C
om
mo
ns
(ww
w.c
risi
sco
mm
on
s.
org
) an
d a
glo
bal
Ran
do
m H
acks
of
Kin
dn
ess
hac
kath
on
(w
ww
.RH
oK
.org
)—a
join
t p
artn
ers
hip
wit
h G
oo
gle
,
Mic
roso
ft, Y
aho
o!,
NA
SA
, an
d t
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k.
Ov
erv
iew
Th
e C
ha
llen
ge
: F
ind
ing
In
no
vat
ive
, Pra
ctic
al S
olu
tio
ns
© Susan Dimitroff | Dreamstime.com
xPro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Mar
y L
ou
Zo
bac
k V
ice
Pre
sid
en
t,
Ear
thq
uak
e R
isk
Ap
plic
atio
nR
isk
Man
age
me
nt
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luti
on
s
& Ro
n E
gu
chi
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sid
en
t/C
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Im
age
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In
c.
& Se
rgio
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raC
on
sult
ant
to W
orl
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ank
an
d o
the
r in
tern
atio
nal
o
rgan
izat
ion
s an
d p
riv
ate
fir
ms
Th
e e
art
hq
ua
ke
an
d e
art
hq
ua
ke
ha
zard
s
On
Jan
uar
y 1
2, 2
01
0, a
7.0
-mag
nit
ud
e e
arth
qu
ake
to
ok
pla
ce in
Hai
ti
(max
imu
m in
ten
sity
of
X+
on
th
e M
od
ifie
d M
erc
alli
Sca
le),
clai
min
g
app
roxi
mat
ely
23
0,0
00
liv
es
and
inju
rin
g 1
00
,00
0 p
eo
ple
. Alm
ost
60
0,0
00
pe
op
le w
ere
left
ho
me
less
an
d n
ear
ly 3
00
,00
0 w
ere
dis
pla
ced
. Th
ese
fig
ure
s ar
e in
ad
dit
ion
to
an
oth
er
size
able
po
rtio
n o
f th
e p
op
ula
tio
n
in a
sim
ilar
situ
atio
n a
s a
resu
lt o
f th
e c
om
bin
ed
eff
ect
s o
f p
ov
ert
y
exa
cerb
ate
d b
y p
rev
iou
s d
isas
ters
an
d p
olit
ical
up
he
aval
, wh
ich
hav
e
pla
gu
ed
Hai
ti f
or
man
y ye
ars.
Th
e e
arth
qu
ake
als
o c
ause
d la
nd
slid
es
and
liqu
efa
ctio
n o
f so
ft s
oils
ov
er
larg
e e
xpan
ses
of
the
co
un
try,
an
d s
eg
me
nts
of
the
co
ast
we
re s
ub
ject
to
su
bsi
de
nce
an
d c
ort
ical
up
lift
as w
ell
as a
min
or
tsu
nam
i. T
his
sit
uat
ion
has
re
sult
ed
in p
rofo
un
d p
sych
oso
cial
tra
um
a
in a
dd
itio
n t
o d
amag
es
and
eco
no
mic
loss
es
tota
ling
alm
ost
US
$ 8
bill
ion
,
all o
f w
hic
h r
ep
rese
nts
a s
etb
ack
to t
he
co
un
try’
s re
cov
ery
eff
ort
s an
d
de
ve
lop
me
nt
pro
cess
in t
he
wak
e o
f th
e h
ydro
-me
teo
rolo
gic
al a
nd
po
litic
al
pro
ble
ms
in w
hic
h H
aiti
has
be
en
mir
ed
in r
ece
nt
de
cad
es.
It
is n
ot
the
firs
t ti
me
—n
or
will
be
th
e la
st—
that
a p
ow
erf
ul e
arth
qu
ake
hit
s th
e is
lan
d
of
His
pan
iola
an
d H
aiti
in p
arti
cula
r.
he
lp b
uild
hai
ti /
Gö
tz G
ram
lich
/ ©
Co
pyr
igh
t 2
01
0 T
he
Hai
ti P
ost
er
Pro
ject
ww
w.t
he
hai
tip
ost
erp
roje
ct.c
om
1
2Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mH
ait
i: J
an
ua
ry 1
2 a
nd
Be
yo
nd
Wh
ile t
he
occ
urr
en
ce o
f th
e
ear
thq
uak
e w
as a
nti
cip
ate
d a
nd
pu
blic
off
icia
ls h
ad b
ee
n n
oti
fie
d
of
that
fac
t, it
s p
reci
se t
imin
g w
as
un
kno
wn
. Lik
e t
he
vas
t m
ajo
rity
of
dam
agin
g q
uak
es,
it o
ccu
rre
d
wit
ho
ut
war
nin
g. G
eo
log
ists
wo
rkin
g o
n H
isp
anio
la h
ad id
en
tifi
ed
bo
th t
he
En
riq
uill
o-P
lan
tain
Gar
de
n f
ault
in t
he
so
uth
an
d t
he
Se
pte
ntr
ion
al f
ault
in t
he
no
rth
as
maj
or
~E-W
pla
te b
ou
nd
ary
fau
lt
zon
es
tran
sect
ing
His
pan
iola
an
d
est
ablis
he
d a
po
ten
tial
fo
r M
7+
ear
thq
uak
es
on
bo
th b
ase
d o
n p
ast
off
sets
of
stre
am f
eat
ure
s (M
ann
& P
ren
tice
et
al.,
in p
rep
arat
ion
).
Th
e J
anu
ary
12
ear
thq
uak
e
rup
ture
d ~
50
km
lon
g s
eg
me
nt
of
a n
ort
h-d
ipp
ing
fau
lt w
ith
in t
he
En
riq
uill
o-P
lan
tain
Gar
de
n s
yste
m,
wit
h s
ign
ific
ant
com
po
ne
nts
of
bo
th v
ert
ical
an
d h
ori
zon
tal s
lip. T
he
seg
me
nt
that
slip
pe
d w
as lo
cate
d
we
st o
f P
ort
au
Pri
nce
. Se
con
dar
y
haz
ard
s re
late
d t
o t
he
ear
thq
uak
e
incl
ud
e: a
sm
all t
sun
ami (
that
kill
ed
4 p
eo
ple
ne
ar L
éo
gân
e),
are
as o
f
bo
th c
oas
tal u
plif
t an
d s
ub
sid
en
ce,
and
a w
ide
are
a af
fect
ed
by
slo
pe
failu
re (
lan
dsl
ide
s, r
ock
-fal
ls),
and
liqu
efa
ctio
n.
Th
e la
st m
ajo
r e
arth
qu
ake
s al
on
g
this
str
etc
h o
f th
e E
nri
qu
illo
-
Pla
nta
in G
ard
en
fau
lt z
on
e o
ccu
rre
d
in 1
75
1 a
nd
17
70
. Sin
ce t
hat
tim
e t
he
fau
lt z
on
e h
as r
em
ain
ed
larg
ely
“lo
cke
d”,
wh
ile c
on
tin
uo
us
pla
te t
ect
on
ic m
oti
on
at
de
pth
relo
ads
the
fau
lt a
nd
cau
ses
slo
w
de
form
atio
n o
n t
he
ear
th’s
su
rfac
e,
just
like
a t
hic
k ru
bb
er
she
et
be
ing
she
are
d. G
eo
ph
ysic
ists
an
alyz
ed
Glo
bal
Po
siti
on
ing
Sys
tem
(G
PS
)
sig
nal
s ca
ptu
red
by
inst
rum
en
tati
on
at p
reci
sely
fix
ed
be
nch
mar
ks
on
th
e g
rou
nd
an
d d
ete
rmin
ed
a
load
ing
rat
e o
f 7
-10
mm
/yr
for
the
En
riq
uill
o-P
lan
tain
Gar
de
n
fau
lt. A
sci
en
tifi
c p
ape
r p
ub
lish
ed
in 2
00
8 u
sed
24
0 y
ear
s si
nce
th
e
last
maj
or
ear
thq
uak
e t
o o
bta
in
1.7
to
2.4
m o
f p
ote
nti
al s
lip a
nd
con
clu
de
d t
hat
th
e E
nri
qu
illo
fau
lt
“was
cu
rre
ntl
y ca
pab
le o
f a
Mw
7.2
ear
thq
uak
e if
th
e e
nti
re e
last
ic
stra
in a
ccu
mu
late
d s
ince
th
e la
st
ear
thq
uak
e w
as r
ele
ase
d in
a s
ing
le
ev
en
t to
day
” (M
anak
er
et
al.,
20
08
).
Th
is e
arth
qu
ake
was
th
e
mat
eri
aliz
atio
n o
f a
nat
ura
l haz
ard
,
bu
t th
e t
rue
cat
astr
op
he
was
larg
ely
man
-mad
e: a
co
llusi
on
of
mo
de
rate
to
str
on
g s
hak
ing
wit
h a
de
nse
po
pu
lati
on
liv
ing
an
d w
ork
ing
in la
rge
ly s
ub
stan
dar
d c
on
stru
ctio
n.
Usi
ng
a c
urr
en
t p
op
ula
tio
n d
en
sity
dat
ase
t an
d t
he
dis
trib
uti
on
of
shak
ing
inte
nsi
ty p
rov
ide
d b
y th
e
US
Ge
olo
gic
al S
urv
ey
(US
GS
) in
the
ho
urs
aft
er
the
qu
ake
, RM
S
app
lied
dam
age
fu
nct
ion
s d
ev
elo
pe
d
in o
the
r p
arts
of
the
wo
rld
an
d
est
imat
ed
ap
pro
xim
ate
ly 2
50
,00
0
po
ten
tial
fat
alit
ies
wit
hin
36
ho
urs
of
the
ear
thq
uak
e’s
occ
urr
en
ce
(RM
S s
pe
cial
re
po
rt).
Th
is
info
rmat
ion
was
re
laye
d t
o u
rban
sear
ch a
nd
re
scu
e t
eam
s h
ead
ing
to
assi
st w
ith
th
e r
eco
ve
ry. H
isp
anio
la
has
no
t se
en
its
last
ear
thq
uak
e.
Typ
ical
ly s
lip o
n o
ne
se
gm
en
t o
f a
lon
g f
ault
zo
ne
load
s th
e a
dja
cen
t
seg
me
nts
. Th
e 1
75
1 a
nd
17
70
ear
thq
uak
es
hav
e b
ee
n in
terp
rete
d
as r
up
turi
ng
ad
jace
nt
seg
me
nts
of
the
En
riq
uill
o f
ault
. Th
e s
ect
ion
of
the
En
riq
uill
o f
ault
clo
sest
to
Po
rt-
au-P
rin
ce d
id n
ot
rup
ture
in t
he
Jan
uar
y e
arth
qu
ake
. Fu
rth
erm
ore
,
ge
olo
gic
stu
die
s an
d G
PS
stu
die
s o
f
the
Se
pte
ntr
ion
al f
ault
tra
nse
ctin
g
no
rth
ern
His
pan
iola
ind
icat
e t
hat
the
mo
st r
ece
nt
ear
thq
uak
e o
n
that
fau
lt o
ccu
rre
d 7
75
to
96
5
year
s ag
o a
nd
th
at m
ore
th
an 4
.5
m o
f sl
ip h
ave
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
inte
rve
nin
g t
ime
, en
ou
gh
slip
fo
r
a M
w7
.5 e
arth
qu
ake
to
re
cur
at
any
tim
e (
Man
ake
r, 2
00
8; M
ann
&
Pre
nti
ce e
t al
., in
pre
par
atio
n).
Da
ma
ge
ass
ess
me
nt
tow
ard
s a
co
mm
on
m
eth
od
olo
gy
Th
e U
nit
ed
Nat
ion
s In
stit
ute
fo
r
Trai
nin
g a
nd
Re
sear
ch (
UN
ITA
R)/
Op
era
tio
nal
Sat
elli
te A
pp
licat
ion
s
Pro
gra
m (
UN
OS
AT
), th
e E
uro
pe
an
Co
mm
issi
on
(E
C)
/ J
oin
t R
ese
arch
Ce
ntr
e (
JR
C),
the
Ce
ntr
e N
atio
nal
d’I
nfo
rmat
ion
Gé
o-S
pat
ial (
CN
IGS
)
rep
rese
nti
ng
th
e G
ov
ern
me
nt
of
Hai
ti a
nd
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
/ G
lob
al
Fac
ility
fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n a
nd
Re
cov
ery
(G
FD
RR
), su
pp
ort
ed
by
its
Dat
a fr
om
dif
fere
nt
mis
sio
ns
(Wo
rld
Ban
k-Im
age
Cat
-RIT
Re
mo
te S
en
sin
g
Mis
sio
n (
15
cm o
pti
cal a
nd
2 p
t/m
2 L
iDA
R),
Go
og
le (
15
cm o
pti
cal)
, NO
AA
(2
5cm
op
tica
l), P
icto
me
try,
as
we
ll as
sat
elli
te im
age
ry f
rom
Ge
oE
ye a
nd
Dig
ital
glo
be
allo
we
d d
amag
e f
rom
th
e H
aiti
ear
thq
uak
e t
o b
e v
iew
ed
th
rou
gh
mu
ltip
le
sen
sors
an
d a
t d
iffe
ren
t ti
me
s. T
he
se m
ult
i-d
ime
nsi
on
al p
ers
pe
ctiv
es
we
re
inv
alu
able
in u
nd
ers
tan
din
g t
he
mag
nit
ud
e a
nd
sco
pe
of
dam
age
cau
sed
by
this
de
vas
tati
ng
ear
thq
uak
e.
1 G
reat
er P
ort-
au-P
rince
stu
dy a
rea
durin
g Ph
ase
2 of
the
dam
age
asse
ssm
ent.
Grid
cel
ls fo
r dist
ribut
ed
dam
age
anal
ysis
are
show
n
2 F
light
pat
hs s
howi
ng c
over
age
of 1
5-cm
W
orld
Ban
k-Im
ageC
at-R
IT R
emot
e Se
nsin
g M
issio
n
(dat
a ca
ptur
ed u
sing
the
RIT
WAS
P sy
stem
)
12
con
sult
ant
Imag
eC
at, p
erf
orm
ed
a
de
taile
d a
sse
ssm
en
t o
f d
amag
e t
o
bu
ildin
gs.
Th
e r
esu
lts
of
this
an
alys
is
hav
e b
ee
n c
riti
cal i
n d
efi
nin
g t
he
reb
uild
ing
ne
ed
s o
f H
aiti
.
Th
is d
amag
e a
sse
ssm
en
t re
lied
on
th
e u
se o
f re
mo
te s
en
sin
g
tech
no
log
y. N
ev
er
be
fore
had
the
av
aila
bili
ty o
f h
igh
-re
solu
tio
n
sate
llite
an
d a
eri
al im
age
ry b
ee
n
so o
pe
n a
nd
acc
ess
ible
. Dat
a fr
om
dif
fere
nt
mis
sio
ns
(Wo
rld
Ban
k-
Imag
eC
at-R
IT R
em
ote
Se
nsi
ng
Mis
sio
n (
15
cm o
pti
cal a
nd
2 p
t/
m2 L
iDA
R),
Go
og
le (
15
cm o
pti
cal),
NO
AA
(2
5cm
op
tica
l), P
icto
me
try,
as w
ell
as s
ate
llite
imag
ery
fro
m G
eo
Eye
an
d D
igit
alg
lob
e
allo
we
d d
amag
e f
rom
th
e H
aiti
ear
thq
uak
e t
o b
e v
iew
ed
th
rou
gh
mu
ltip
le s
en
sors
an
d a
t d
iffe
ren
t
tim
es.
Th
ese
mu
lti-
dim
en
sio
nal
pe
rsp
ect
ive
s w
ere
inv
alu
able
in
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
th
e m
agn
itu
de
and
sco
pe
of
dam
age
cau
sed
by
this
de
vas
tati
ng
ear
thq
uak
e.
In a
dd
itio
n t
o t
he
ad
van
cem
en
t
in a
cce
ss t
o r
em
ote
se
nsi
ng
dat
a,
adva
nce
me
nts
in in
form
atio
n
tech
no
log
y, s
oci
al n
etw
ork
ing
and
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g t
ech
niq
ue
s
pla
yed
an
imp
ort
ant
role
in b
oth
dat
a d
eve
lop
me
nt
and
dam
age
asse
ssm
en
t. G
EO
-CA
N (
Glo
bal
Ear
th O
bse
rvat
ion
-Cat
astr
op
he
Ass
ess
me
nt
Ne
two
rk)
em
erg
ed
fro
m t
his
eve
nt
as a
n u
ne
xpe
cte
d
reso
urc
e f
or
dam
age
ass
ess
me
nt.
Co
mp
rise
d o
f o
ver
60
0 e
ng
ine
ers
and
sci
en
tist
s fr
om
23
co
un
trie
s
rep
rese
nti
ng
ove
r 6
0 u
niv
ers
itie
s,
18
go
vern
me
nt
and
no
n-p
rofi
t
org
aniz
atio
ns
and
ove
r 5
0 p
riva
te
com
pan
ies,
GE
O-C
AN
ide
nti
fie
d
clo
se t
o 3
0,0
00
se
vere
ly-d
amag
ed
bu
ildin
gs
in le
ss t
han
a w
ee
k u
sin
g
very
hig
h r
eso
luti
on
ae
rial
imag
ery
.
Uti
lizin
g t
he
ae
rial
imag
ery
, de
taile
d
dam
age
ass
ess
me
nts
of
ind
ivid
ual
bu
ildin
gs
we
re c
on
du
cte
d b
y
com
par
ing
pre
-ear
thq
uak
e s
ate
llite
imag
ery
to
po
st-e
arth
qu
ake
ae
rial
ph
oto
s. U
sin
g c
om
ple
me
nta
ry
app
roac
he
s, d
atas
ets
pro
du
ced
by
the
Wo
rld
Ban
k/G
EO
-CA
N t
eam
an
d
the
UN
OS
AT
/JR
C t
eam
s w
ere
use
d
to: 1
) e
stim
ate
th
e t
ota
l nu
mb
er
of
colla
pse
d a
nd
se
vere
ly-d
amag
ed
bu
ildin
gs
in P
ort
-au
-Pri
nce
an
d
surr
ou
nd
ing
are
as; a
nd
2)
est
ablis
h
the
ove
rall
relia
bili
ty o
f th
e a
eri
al
surv
ey
dam
age
re
sult
s. I
n t
ota
l,
dam
age
est
imat
es
we
re p
rovi
de
d f
or
13
ad
min
istr
ativ
e u
nit
s w
ith
in H
aiti
.
In o
rde
r to
val
idat
e t
he
ae
rial
surv
ey
resu
lts
and
to
als
o
ext
rap
ola
te t
his
info
rmat
ion
to
low
er
dam
age
sta
tes
wh
ich
may
no
t b
e e
vid
en
t fr
om
th
e a
eri
al
ph
oto
s, t
he
UN
OS
AT-
JR
C-W
orl
d
Ban
k/Im
age
Cat
te
am p
erf
orm
ed
stra
teg
ical
ly-t
arg
ete
d f
ield
gro
un
d
surv
eys
. In
ad
dit
ion
, a s
ep
arat
e
en
gin
ee
rin
g t
eam
co
nd
uct
ed
mo
re d
eta
iled
dam
age
ev
alu
atio
ns
3
Th
is e
art
hq
ua
ke
wa
s th
e m
ate
ria
liza
tio
n o
f a
na
tura
l ha
zard
, bu
t th
e t
rue
ca
tast
rop
he
wa
s la
rge
ly m
an
-ma
de
: a c
ollu
sio
n o
f m
od
era
te t
o s
tro
ng
sha
kin
g w
ith
a d
en
se p
op
ula
tio
n li
vin
g a
nd
wo
rkin
g in
larg
ely
su
bst
an
da
rd
co
nst
ruc
tio
n.
54P
roc
ee
ds
fro
m t
he
20
10
UR
Fo
rum
Ha
iti:
Ja
nu
ary
12
an
d B
ey
on
d
usi
ng
ve
ry h
igh
re
solu
tio
n, o
bliq
ue
imag
ery
pro
vid
ed
by
Pic
tom
etr
y.
Th
is la
tte
r d
atas
et
was
inv
alu
able
in d
ete
rmin
ing
wh
eth
er
sig
nif
ican
t
stru
ctu
ral d
amag
e h
ad o
ccu
rre
d
that
did
no
t re
sult
in t
he
co
mp
lete
colla
pse
of
a st
ruct
ure
. Th
is
info
rmat
ion
, in
co
nju
nct
ion
wit
h t
he
fie
ld s
urv
ey
dat
a, h
elp
ed
to
val
idat
e
that
th
e a
sse
ssm
en
ts p
rod
uce
d
fro
m t
he
ae
rial
su
rve
ys w
ere
accu
rate
in id
en
tify
ing
th
e t
ota
l
nu
mb
er
of
colla
pse
d s
tru
ctu
res
and
th
at s
tati
stic
ally
, th
e a
eri
al
resu
lts
cou
ld b
e u
sed
as
an in
de
x
for
est
imat
ing
dam
age
at
all l
ow
er
lev
els
(i.e
., b
elo
w c
olla
pse
d a
nd
ve
ry
he
avy
dam
age
).
Th
e r
esu
lts
of
the
join
t U
NO
SA
T-
JR
C-W
orl
d B
ank/
Imag
eC
at d
amag
e
anal
ysis
(Ta
ble
1)
sho
ws
that
a li
ttle
ove
r 9
0,0
00
bu
ildin
gs
we
re e
ith
er
de
stro
yed
or
exp
eri
en
ced
he
avy
dam
age
in t
he
ear
thq
uak
e (
dam
age
clas
ses
3 t
hro
ug
h 5
). T
his
re
pre
sen
ts
a lit
tle
less
th
an 1
/3 o
f th
e b
uild
ing
inve
nto
ry in
th
e a
ffe
cte
d a
reas
.
Mo
st o
f th
e d
amag
e o
ccu
rre
d in
the
Po
rt-a
u-P
rin
ce a
rea;
ho
we
ver,
sig
nif
ican
t n
um
be
rs o
f b
uild
ing
s w
ere
also
de
stro
yed
in C
arre
fou
r, D
elm
as,
Lé
og
âne
, an
d P
éti
on
-Vill
e.
Bas
ed
on
me
dia
n f
loo
r ar
ea
est
imat
es
for
dif
fere
nt
occ
up
ancy
use
s, t
his
dam
age
tra
nsl
ate
s ro
ug
hly
to
ove
r
26
mill
ion
sq
uar
e m
ete
rs in
bu
ildin
g
are
a af
fect
ed
wit
h a
bo
ut
a th
ird
of
this
to
tal a
sso
ciat
ed
wit
h b
uild
ing
s
that
will
hav
e t
o b
e e
ith
er
rep
lace
d
or
sig
nif
ican
tly
rep
aire
d. T
he
to
tal
rep
air
cost
to
bu
ildin
gs
is e
stim
ate
d
by
the
join
t U
NO
SA
T-J
RC
-Wo
rld
Ban
k/Im
age
Cat
re
po
rt t
o b
e o
ver
$6
bill
ion
(U
S).
As
par
t o
f th
e P
ost
-PD
NA
pro
cess
,
the
UN
-JR
C-W
B/I
mag
eC
at
gro
up
has
als
o la
un
che
d a
se
rie
s
of
wo
rksh
op
s to
cap
ture
th
e
exp
eri
en
ces
of
the
dif
fere
nt
rem
ote
sen
sin
g-b
ase
d d
amag
e a
sse
ssm
en
ts
afte
r th
e H
aiti
ear
thq
uak
e. T
he
firs
t w
ork
sho
p w
as h
eld
on
27
-28
Ap
ril 2
01
0 a
t th
e U
nit
ed
Nat
ion
s in
Ge
ne
va;
th
e s
eco
nd
on
20
-21
May
20
10
at
the
Jo
int
Re
sear
ch C
en
tre
(JR
C)
in I
spra
(It
aly)
; an
d t
he
fin
al
sess
ion
at
the
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k
Co
nfe
ren
ce, w
hic
h s
um
mar
ize
d
the
ou
tco
me
of
the
tw
o p
rev
iou
s
me
eti
ng
s. D
uri
ng
th
e c
on
fere
nce
and
on
th
e c
om
mu
nty
we
bsi
te, t
he
follo
win
g it
em
s w
ere
dis
cuss
ed
:
P
rese
nta
tio
n o
f th
e P
DN
A
fin
din
gs
P
rese
nta
tio
n o
f th
e jo
int
ear
thq
uak
e d
amag
e a
tlas
C
on
ve
rsat
ion
on
th
e m
ost
app
rop
riat
e s
en
sor
D
ata
colle
ctio
n t
ech
niq
ue
s (t
his
thre
ad w
as s
tart
ed
wit
h t
he
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g g
rou
p)
F
ield
val
idat
ion
of
dam
age
est
imat
es
D
amag
e m
od
els
bas
ed
on
rem
ote
ly-s
en
sed
dat
a
D
ata
inte
gra
tio
n—
inte
gra
tin
g
dam
age
dat
a fr
om
dif
fere
nt
sen
sors
an
d m
od
alit
ies
T
he
dif
fere
nce
s b
etw
ee
n
sate
llite
an
d a
eri
al (
this
th
read
cou
ld b
e s
tart
ed
wit
h t
he
rem
ote
se
nsi
ng
gro
up
)
Th
e a
na
lysi
s o
n H
ait
i’s
mu
ltip
le n
atu
ral
ha
zard
s
Nat
ura
l haz
ard
s h
ave
a h
isto
ry o
f
de
stru
ctiv
e p
ote
nti
al in
His
pan
iola
.
So
me
re
cen
t—an
d n
ot
so r
ece
nt—
do
cum
en
ts h
ave
alr
ead
y d
esc
rib
ed
the
cau
ses
and
po
ssib
le e
ffe
cts
of
seis
mic
ity,
cyc
lon
es,
El N
iño
,
dro
ug
ht,
lan
dsl
ide
s, a
nd
oth
er
occ
urr
en
ces.
Th
e s
tud
y fo
rme
d
par
t o
f th
e P
ost
-dis
aste
r D
amag
e
and
Ne
ed
s A
sse
ssm
en
t (P
DN
A),
and
aim
ed
at:
C
on
du
ctin
g a
n in
ve
nto
ry o
f
haz
ard
s ac
ross
th
e c
ou
ntr
y
Ta
ble
1. N
um
be
r o
f d
amag
ed
ho
use
s g
rou
pe
d in
EM
S-9
8 D
amag
e c
lass
es
pe
r co
mm
un
e a
nd
do
min
ant
lan
d-u
se c
lass
EM
S-9
81 D
amag
e C
lass
es
CO
MM
UN
E5
43
21
Car
refo
ur
27
63
59
05
59
20
32
20
35
,21
9
Cit
é S
olei
l1
01
25
49
10
73
57
66
40
3
Del
mas
50
12
28
14
50
64
28
81
29
,47
8
Gra
nd-
Goâ
ve1
48
54
14
21
27
62
17
5
Gre
ssie
r5
65
28
95
67
31
93
43
6
Jac
mel
21
41
78
51
48
98
57
87
99
Léo
gân
e2
22
05
98
54
13
92
36
02
4,7
36
Pét
ion
-Vill
e2
02
79
06
16
93
70
81
0,6
14
Pet
it-G
oâve
17
31
04
16
71
16
77
0
Por
t-au
-Pri
nce
99
02
15
,25
71
2,3
51
66
99
62
,69
3
Taba
rre
53
23
65
66
33
83
39
14
Tota
l2
4,0
62
34
,50
03
3,5
46
18
,39
51
88
,23
6
Not
e: 1
– E
MS
-98
: Eu
rope
an M
acro
-sei
smic
Sca
le (1
99
8)
P
rov
idin
g a
n a
sse
ssm
en
t o
f
imm
ine
nt
haz
ard
s, w
hic
h m
ain
ly
resu
lt f
rom
th
e e
xpo
sure
of
dis
aste
r v
icti
ms
du
rin
g t
he
app
roac
hin
g r
ain
y se
aso
n a
nd
the
po
ssib
ility
of
ano
the
r se
ve
re
ear
thq
uak
e
S
um
mar
izin
g r
eco
mm
en
dat
ion
s
for
a m
ed
ium
- an
d lo
ng
-te
rm
stra
teg
y fo
r im
pro
vin
g r
isk
man
age
me
nt
F
orm
ula
tin
g a
n a
ctio
n
pla
n c
on
sist
en
t w
ith
th
e
stra
teg
y d
ev
elo
pe
d a
nd
off
er
reco
mm
en
dat
ion
s
to b
e c
on
sid
ere
d d
uri
ng
reco
nst
ruct
ion
op
era
tio
ns
Th
e a
nal
ysis
is in
ten
de
d t
o in
form
a v
arie
d t
arg
et
aud
ien
ce—
de
cisi
on
-
mak
ers
, th
e g
en
era
l po
pu
lati
on
,
the
inte
rnat
ion
al c
om
mu
nit
y, a
nd
scie
nti
sts
and
en
gin
ee
rs—
of
the
nat
ura
l haz
ard
s an
d t
he
ass
oci
ate
d
vu
lne
rab
ility
cu
rre
ntl
y p
rese
nt
in H
aiti
. In
vie
w o
f th
e q
uan
tity
,
qu
alit
y o
f d
ata
colle
cte
d a
nd
th
e
tim
e a
vai
lab
le, i
t w
as n
ece
ssar
y to
org
aniz
e t
he
wo
rk in
th
e f
ollo
win
g
ord
er
of
pri
ori
ty:
In
th
e v
ery
sh
ort
te
rm, t
hat
is, o
nce
hu
man
itar
ian
wo
rk is
com
ple
ted
an
d r
eh
abili
tati
on
has
be
gu
n, d
ete
rmin
e t
he
haz
ard
s
at t
he
te
mp
ora
ry s
he
lte
rs in
th
e
Po
rt-a
u-P
rin
ce m
etr
op
olit
an
are
a, in
oth
er
affe
cte
d r
eg
ion
s
and
cit
ies
in t
he
co
un
try,
an
d
also
in t
ho
se a
reas
th
at h
ave
be
en
re
ceiv
ing
an
d p
rov
idin
g
she
lte
r to
re
fug
ee
s fr
om
dis
aste
r-af
fect
ed
are
as
C
on
sid
eri
ng
th
e li
kelih
oo
d o
f
ano
the
r m
ajo
r e
arth
qu
ake
stri
kin
g H
aiti
an
d P
ort
-au
-
Pri
nce
in t
he
ne
ar f
utu
re,
pay
ing
par
ticu
lar
atte
nti
on
to t
he
po
ssib
le m
agn
itu
de
,
inte
nsi
ty, a
cce
lera
tio
n, a
nd
seco
nd
ary
eff
ect
s (a
fte
rsh
ock
s,
soil
liqu
efa
ctio
n, l
and
slid
es
and
mu
dfl
ow
s, t
sun
amis
)
E
val
uat
e t
he
hyd
rom
ete
oro
log
ical
haz
ard
s
and
th
eir
se
con
dar
y e
ffe
cts
(e.g
.,
he
avy
rain
fall,
tro
pic
al c
yclo
ne
s,
El N
iño
/EN
SO
)
Ou
r m
ult
iple
haz
ard
s as
sess
me
nt
of
Hai
ti a
ime
d a
t id
en
tify
ing
th
e
spat
ial a
nd
te
mp
ora
l sco
pe
as
we
ll as
th
e r
ela
tiv
e in
ten
sity
of
the
mo
st s
ev
ere
nat
ura
l haz
ard
s
in H
aiti
. Ev
ide
ntl
y, t
he
de
gre
e o
f
pre
cisi
on
an
d e
ffe
ctiv
en
ess
of
the
re
sult
s o
f th
is s
tud
y d
ire
ctly
de
pe
nd
ed
on
th
e q
uan
tity
an
d
qu
alit
y o
f d
ata
avai
lab
le. I
t is
ho
pe
d
that
th
e a
nal
yse
s p
rese
nte
d w
ill
he
lp t
o s
tee
r e
me
rge
ncy
re
cov
ery
eff
ort
s an
d r
isk
man
age
me
nt,
in
add
itio
n t
o f
utu
re la
nd
-use
an
d
de
ve
lop
me
nt
pla
nn
ing
. Ho
we
ve
r,
the
se r
esu
lts
are
pre
limin
ary
and
are
su
bje
ct t
o r
ev
iew
in t
he
co
min
g
mo
nth
s.
Th
e m
ost
imm
inen
t n
atu
ral h
azar
ds
are
asso
ciat
ed w
ith
pre
cip
itat
ion
cau
sed
by
pol
ar f
ron
ts f
rom
th
e
nor
ther
n h
emis
ph
ere;
in a
dd
itio
n
mor
e ra
infa
ll is
exp
ecte
d f
rom
tro
pic
al
cycl
ones
an
d w
aves
, th
e In
tert
rop
ical
Con
verg
ence
Zon
e, a
nd
con
vect
ive
and
oro
gra
ph
ic a
ctiv
ity.
A n
ew E
l
Niñ
o/E
NS
O e
pis
ode
cou
ld b
rin
g t
he
ten
den
cy t
o d
elay
th
e ar
riva
l of
the
rain
y se
ason
an
d p
erh
aps
even
cre
ate
dro
ug
ht
con
dit
ion
s. M
odel
s al
so
ind
icat
e th
at E
l Niñ
o ac
tivi
ty c
ould
incr
ease
th
e n
um
ber
an
d in
ten
sity
of
cycl
ones
; how
ever
, it
is n
ot p
ossi
ble
to p
red
ict
the
rou
te t
he
cycl
ones
will
take
an
d if
th
ey w
ill a
pp
roac
h o
r h
it
His
pan
iola
.
It is
als
o c
lear
th
at o
the
r n
atu
ral
haz
ard
s su
ch a
s n
ew
ear
thq
uak
es,
lan
dsl
ide
s, t
orr
en
tial
mu
dfl
ow
s,
dro
ug
ht,
an
d t
sun
amis
mu
st a
lway
s
be
tak
en
into
acc
ou
nt.
As
a re
sult
,
the
vis
ion
fo
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t,
wh
ich
incl
ud
es
em
erg
en
cy
man
age
me
nt,
sh
ou
ld b
e c
en
tere
d
on
a m
ult
i-h
azar
ds
situ
atio
n.
Th
e m
ult
i-h
azar
ds
anal
ysis
pe
rsp
ect
ive
is m
ean
t to
se
rve
as
the
pla
tfo
rm f
or
the
en
suin
g r
isk
asse
ssm
en
ts.
It is
als
o r
eq
uir
ed
as
on
e o
f th
e t
oo
ls t
o u
nd
ers
tan
d a
nd
com
mu
nic
ate
ris
k, a
nd
to
ass
ist
po
litic
al a
nd
man
age
rial
de
cisi
on
mak
ing
fo
r la
nd
use
pla
nn
ing
,
risk
re
du
ctio
n a
nd
tra
nsf
er,
and
em
erg
en
cy a
nd
dis
aste
r
man
age
me
nt.
Th
ese
are
all
pill
ars
for
nat
ion
al r
isk
man
age
me
nt
and
de
ve
lop
me
nt
pla
nn
ing
po
licie
s.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Yv
on
ne
Tsi
kata
, Co
un
try
Dir
ect
or
Car
ibb
ean
Re
gio
n, T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k,
Was
hin
gto
n, D
C
Car
ol P
ren
tice
, Ge
olo
gis
t,
US
Ge
olo
gic
al S
urv
ey
Eri
c C
alai
s, P
rofe
sso
r o
f
Ge
op
hys
ics
of
Pu
rdu
e U
niv
ers
ity
and
Co
-Ch
air
of
the
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns
Hai
ti E
arth
qu
ake
Ris
k R
ed
uct
ion
Task
Fo
rce
Ro
n E
gu
chi,
Pre
sid
en
t, I
mag
eC
at
Gu
ido
Le
mo
ine
, Se
nio
r S
cie
nti
st,
Eu
rop
ean
Co
mm
issi
on
, Jo
int
Re
sear
ch C
en
tre
Alix
Ro
um
agn
ac, P
resi
de
nt,
Pre
dic
t S
erv
ice
s
Je
an P
ierr
e A
sté
, Man
age
r,
Gru
pp
o I
talia
no
Pro
du
tto
ri
Eti
che
tte
Au
toad
esi
ve
(G
IPE
A)
7
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mF
loo
ds
and
Dro
ug
hts
66666Flo
od
s a
nd
Dro
ug
hts
:A
sse
ssin
g a
nd
P
red
icti
ng
th
e R
isk
s
Pao
lo R
eg
gia
ni
Se
nio
r R
ese
arch
Sci
en
tist
De
ltar
es
Th
e
sess
ion
fe
atu
red
fo
ur
spe
ak
ers
: i)
T
ho
mas
G
razi
ano
, Ch
ief
of
Hy
dro
log
ical
Se
rvic
e, U
.S. N
ati
on
al
We
ath
er
Se
rvic
e;
ii)
Ra
fae
l O
rea
mu
no
fr
om
th
e
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f C
ost
a R
ica
; iii
) E
zio
To
din
i fr
om
th
e
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f B
olo
gn
a,
Ita
ly;
an
d i
v)
Ro
wa
n D
ou
gla
s,
CE
O o
f W
illis
Re
sea
rch
in
th
e U
.K.
Th
e f
oc
us
of
the
se
ssio
ns
wa
s c
lea
rly
sh
ap
ed
by
th
e c
on
ten
t o
f th
e
pre
sen
tati
on
s.
Th
e f
irst
sp
eak
er
gav
e a
pre
sen
tati
on
ab
ou
t F
resh
wat
er
Pre
dic
tio
n a
nd
Nat
ion
al W
arn
ing
Se
rvic
es
at t
he
U.S
. Nat
ion
al
We
ath
er
Se
rvic
e (
NW
S).
Th
e
U.S
. NW
S p
rov
ide
s w
eat
he
r,
hyd
rolo
gic
, an
d c
limat
e f
ore
cast
s
and
war
nin
gs
for
the
Un
ite
d S
tate
s,
its
terr
ito
rie
s, a
dja
cen
t w
ate
rs,
and
oce
an a
reas
fo
r th
e p
rote
ctio
n
of
life
an
d p
rop
ert
y an
d s
up
po
rt
of
the
nat
ion
al e
con
om
y. O
ve
r
the
pas
t 2
0 y
ear
s, f
loo
din
g h
as
clai
me
d o
n a
ve
rag
e o
ve
r 9
0 li
ve
s
pe
r ye
ar in
th
e U
.S. a
nd
has
cau
sed
dam
age
s in
exc
ess
of
US
$7
bill
ion
ann
ual
ly. F
loo
ds
occ
ur
thro
ug
ho
ut
all 5
0 s
tate
s, c
on
stit
ute
a t
hre
at
year
-ro
un
d, a
nd
cau
se m
ore
fata
litie
s th
an a
ny
oth
er
sev
ere
we
ath
er-
rela
ted
ph
en
om
en
on
.
Mo
re t
han
hal
f o
f al
l flo
od
-re
late
d
de
ath
s re
sult
fro
m m
oto
rist
s
be
ing
sw
ep
t aw
ay in
th
eir
ve
hic
les.
Op
era
tio
nal
flo
od
fo
reca
st s
erv
ice
s
thro
ug
ho
ut
the
U.S
. are
pro
vid
ed
by
Riv
er
Fo
reca
st C
en
ters
(R
FC
s).
Th
e p
rin
cip
al s
erv
ice
s in
clu
de
flas
h f
loo
d g
uid
ance
, qu
anti
tati
ve
rain
fall
fore
cast
s, m
ult
i-se
nso
r
pre
cip
itat
ion
an
alys
es,
sh
ort
an
d
ext
en
de
d r
ang
e r
ive
r fo
reca
st
gu
idan
ce (
de
term
inis
tic
and
pro
bab
ilist
ic),
rou
tin
e m
ult
i-ag
en
cy
colla
bo
rati
on
, dri
nki
ng
wat
er
sup
ply
fore
cast
s o
utr
eac
h a
nd
tra
inin
g,
and
su
pp
ort
to
we
ath
er
fore
cast
ing
off
ice
s an
d o
the
r d
ev
elo
pm
en
t
acti
vit
ies.
To
m G
razi
ano
’s t
alk
pro
vid
ed
fu
rth
er
de
tails
on
th
e
inte
rfac
es,
th
rou
gh
wh
ich
th
e N
WS
de
live
rs w
arn
ing
on
all
asp
ect
s
of
the
ir s
erv
ice
s to
th
e e
nd
-use
r
com
mu
nit
y.
Ezi
o T
od
ini g
ave
a p
rese
nta
tio
n
on
th
e r
ele
van
ce o
f u
nce
rtai
nty
in r
ive
r fl
ow
pre
dic
tio
ns.
In
pre
dic
tin
g r
ive
r fl
oo
ds,
un
cert
ain
ty
and
ris
k g
o h
and
-in
-han
d w
ith
a h
igh
de
gre
e o
f su
bje
ctiv
e
pe
rce
pti
on
by
stak
eh
old
ers
, he
said
. In
his
vie
w, u
nd
ers
tan
din
g
risk
imp
lies
gra
spin
g t
he
co
nce
pt
of
“pre
dic
tiv
e u
nce
rtai
nty
” in
flo
od
risk
map
pin
g a
nd
flo
od
em
erg
en
cy
man
age
me
nt.
To
din
i use
d e
xam
ple
s
to d
em
on
stra
te h
ow
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
and
ass
ess
ing
pre
dic
tiv
e
un
cert
ain
ty is
th
e p
rere
qu
isit
e f
or
red
uci
ng
ris
k as
we
ll as
imp
rov
ing
the
re
liab
ility
an
d r
ob
ust
ne
ss o
f
em
erg
en
cy d
eci
sio
ns.
Flo
od
ris
k
alle
via
tio
n t
hro
ug
h r
ese
rvo
ir
Glo
bal
(cl
imat
olo
gic
al)
dri
ve
rs,
loca
l (fl
oo
d/d
rou
gh
t) im
pac
ts
Mu
ltip
le a
nd
inte
rre
late
d
sou
rce
s: r
ive
r, c
oas
tal,
inte
nse
rai
nfa
ll, h
ail,
dro
ug
ht,
su
bsi
de
nce
Co
mp
lex
pat
hw
ays:
riv
er
catc
hm
en
ts, u
rban
dra
inag
e,
coas
tal z
on
es,
ag
ricu
ltu
ral
lan
d u
se
Co
nsi
de
rati
on
of
nat
ura
l an
d
anth
rop
og
en
ic in
flu
en
ces:
u
rban
izat
ion
, lan
d u
se,
de
fen
ces/
chan
ne
lisat
ion
, d
rain
age
Re
lati
ve
vu
lne
rab
ility
: bu
ildin
g
char
acte
rist
ics,
usa
ge
, lo
cati
on
, in
sura
nce
co
ve
rag
e,
cro
pp
ing
pat
tern
s
De
alin
g w
ith
hy
dro
log
ica
l ris
ks S
ew
age
/d
rain
age
pro
ble
ms
Po
or
flo
od
d
efe
nse
s
Ch
ang
ing
sto
rm t
rack
s
Ris
ing
sea
lev
els
Sto
rm s
urg
e
Incr
eas
ing
w
ind
sto
rme
ve
nts
Pro
lon
ge
dra
infa
ll
Inte
nse
rain
fall
WH
AT
CA
US
ES
F
LO
OD
ING
?
8Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
man
age
me
nt
and
flo
od
ale
rt s
ho
uld
be
bas
ed
on
th
e a
sse
ssm
en
t o
f th
e
pre
dic
tiv
e u
nce
rtai
nty
in r
eal
tim
e
flo
od
fo
reca
stin
g.
Th
e la
st s
pe
ake
r, R
ow
an D
ou
gla
s,
CE
O o
f W
illis
Re
sear
ch N
etw
ork
,
focu
sed
on
th
e im
po
rtan
ce o
f
flo
od
pre
dic
tio
n in
th
e c
on
text
of
the
bu
sin
ess
mo
de
ls o
f in
sura
nce
com
pan
ies.
In
sura
nce
co
mp
anie
s
ne
ed
to
man
age
larg
e q
uan
titi
es
of
cap
ital
re
serv
es,
wh
ich
ne
ed
to
be
pai
d o
ut
in c
ase
a d
isas
ter
stri
kes.
Th
is r
eq
uir
es
insu
rers
to
cla
ssif
y
the
exp
osu
re o
f re
sid
en
tial
an
d
pro
du
ctiv
e a
reas
to
se
ve
ral k
ind
s
of
risk
s an
d t
hro
ug
ho
ut
a ra
ng
e o
f
cou
ntr
ies.
Th
e r
isks
incl
ud
e n
atu
ral
haz
ard
s ra
ng
ing
fro
m e
arth
qu
ake
s,
vo
lcan
o e
rup
tio
ns,
ch
em
ical
acci
de
nts
an
d f
ire
to
flo
od
s an
d
dro
ug
hts
. Ris
k m
app
ing
co
nst
itu
tes
a su
bst
anti
al t
ask
that
ne
ed
s to
be
sup
po
rte
d t
hro
ug
h c
utt
ing
-ed
ge
rese
arch
in e
arth
ob
serv
atio
n a
nd
mo
de
ling
to
ols
. Wh
ile t
he
GE
M
(Glo
bal
Ear
thq
uak
e M
od
el)
init
iati
ve
is a
lre
ady
at a
n a
dv
ance
d s
tag
e o
f
imp
lem
en
tati
on
, Will
is is
cu
rre
ntl
y
wo
rkin
g w
ith
a g
rou
p o
f e
xpe
rt
scie
nti
sts
on
de
ve
lop
ing
a s
imila
r
app
roac
h t
o f
loo
ds
and
dro
ug
hts
.
Aft
er
giv
ing
a b
road
ov
erv
iew
of
the
cas
h r
ese
rve
str
uct
ure
s o
f
larg
e in
sure
rs, D
ou
gla
s o
utl
ine
d
Will
is’ e
ffo
rts
in g
ett
ing
su
ch a
glo
bal
flo
od
an
d d
rou
gh
t m
od
elin
g
init
iati
ve
on
tra
ck.
Flo
od
ris
k in
Co
sta
Ric
aR
afae
l O
ream
un
o f
rom
Co
sta
Ric
a in
tro
du
ced
th
e a
ud
ien
ce t
o t
he
flo
od
risk
in C
ost
a R
ica
wh
ich
has
a n
eg
ativ
e s
oci
o-e
con
om
ic im
pac
t. C
ost
a R
ica
is a
co
un
try
wit
h a
str
on
g t
op
og
rap
hic
re
lief
wh
ose
pre
cip
itat
ion
pat
tern
s
are
co
ntr
olle
d b
y m
ois
t ai
r cu
rre
nts
fro
m t
he
Atl
anti
c an
d t
he
Pac
ific
.
Inte
nse
to
po
gra
ph
ical
ly-d
riv
en
tro
pic
al r
ain
fall
cau
ses
flo
od
ing
, e
spe
-
cial
ly in
th
e lo
we
r p
arts
of
the
riv
er
reac
he
s. I
n C
ost
a R
ica,
wh
ich
is p
art
of
a re
gio
n w
ith
hig
h s
eis
mic
act
ivit
y, t
he
re i
s a
sig
nif
ican
t co
rre
lati
on
be
twe
en
ear
thq
uak
es
and
flo
od
ing
. Ear
thq
uak
es
trig
ge
r la
nd
slid
es
in t
he
up
pe
r b
asin
s o
f th
e A
tlan
tic
Re
gio
n, c
ausi
ng
par
tial
de
fore
stat
ion
an
d in
-
stab
ility
of
slo
pe
s.
Be
cau
se o
f th
e h
eav
y p
reci
pit
atio
n a
nd
ru
n-o
ff,
the
nat
ura
l v
eg
eta
tio
n c
ov
er
has
no
t b
ee
n a
ble
to
re
cov
er,
le
avin
g t
he
so
il
exp
ose
d t
o e
rosi
on
. Th
e u
pp
er
par
ts o
f th
e r
ive
r b
asin
s th
en
yie
ld s
tro
ng
se
dim
en
t lo
ads
wh
ich
are
tra
nsp
ort
ed
do
wn
stre
am, w
he
re t
he
y ar
e d
ep
osi
ted
in t
he
riv
er
be
d a
nd
th
e f
loo
dp
lain
s an
d r
est
rict
riv
er
flo
ws.
Raf
ael O
rea-
mu
no
’s p
rese
nta
tio
n h
igh
ligh
ted
th
e h
ydro
log
ical
ch
arac
teri
stic
s o
f th
e m
ost
im
po
rtan
t b
asin
s, t
he
so
cial
an
d
eco
no
mic
act
ivit
ies
in t
he
flo
od
pla
ins,
an
d t
he
ne
ed
fo
r m
od
elin
g r
ive
r sy
ste
ms
un
de
r u
nst
ead
y fl
ow
co
nd
itio
ns
po
ssib
ly u
sin
g s
pat
ial m
od
elin
g a
pp
roac
he
s an
d t
oo
ls.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Ro
wan
Do
ug
las,
CE
O G
lob
al
An
alyt
ics,
Will
is R
e C
hai
rman
,
Will
is R
ese
arch
Ne
two
rk
Tom
Gra
zian
o, C
hie
f, H
ydro
log
ic
Se
rvic
es
Div
isio
n, U
.S. N
atio
nal
We
ath
er
Se
rvic
e (
NW
S)
Ezi
o T
od
ini,
Ch
air
of
Wat
er
Re
sou
rce
s P
lan
nin
g a
nd
of
Hyd
rolo
gy,
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f B
olo
gn
a
Raf
ael O
ream
un
o, P
rofe
sso
r
of
Hyd
rolo
gy,
Wat
er
Re
sou
rce
s
En
gin
ee
rin
g a
nd
Ad
van
ce
Hyd
rau
lics,
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f
Co
sta
Ric
a
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
ris
k im
plie
s g
rasp
ing
th
e c
on
ce
pt
of
“pre
dic
tiv
e
un
ce
rta
inty
” in
flo
od
ris
k m
ap
pin
g a
nd
flo
od
em
erg
en
cy
ma
na
ge
me
nt.
Photo: © Michael Kirkham | Dreamstime.com
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
10
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
stra
teg
ies,
pre
par
ed
ne
ss p
lan
nin
g,
and
ad
apta
tio
n (
bo
th a
uto
no
mo
us
and
pla
nn
ed
). In
teg
rati
on
of
spat
ially
var
yin
g d
ynam
ic p
hys
ical
and
so
cial
ind
icat
ors
into
dis
aste
r
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
is a
ch
alle
ng
e,
par
ticu
larl
y, b
eca
use
it m
ust
be
syst
em
atic
an
d, m
ost
imp
ort
antl
y,
stak
eh
old
er
dri
ve
n. S
take
ho
lde
r
inv
olv
em
en
t al
low
s as
sess
me
nts
no
t o
nly
to
fo
cus
on
imp
ort
ant
fact
ors
sh
apin
g v
uln
era
bili
ty
bu
t al
so in
cre
ase
th
e li
kelih
oo
d
of
de
ve
lop
ing
ad
just
me
nts
an
d
adap
tati
on
s th
at a
re r
eal
isti
c fo
r
any
giv
en
co
mm
un
ity
con
sid
eri
ng
hu
man
, so
cial
, an
d e
con
om
ic c
apit
al.
A b
ott
om
-up
, co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
app
roac
h t
o r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t an
d
man
age
me
nt
has
pro
ve
n t
o b
e
an e
ffe
ctiv
e p
roce
ss w
ith
a h
igh
like
liho
od
of
sust
ain
able
re
sult
s.
Pas
t d
eca
de
s o
f d
isas
ter
risk
rese
arch
an
d a
sse
ssm
en
ts h
ave
lead
to
man
y in
no
vati
ve a
pp
roac
he
s
to m
eas
uri
ng
ris
k—fo
r e
xam
ple
,
com
bin
ing
so
cial
vu
lne
rab
ility
an
d
mu
ltip
le p
hys
ical
haz
ard
s. A
dva
nce
s
in r
em
ote
se
nsi
ng
, Ge
og
rap
hic
Info
rmat
ion
Sys
tem
s (G
IS)
tech
no
log
y, a
nd
par
tici
pat
ory
GIS
giv
e u
s b
ett
er
too
ls a
nd
dat
a fo
r
risk
map
pin
g a
nd
vis
ual
izat
ion
acr
oss
scal
es.
In
par
ticu
lar,
GIS
-bas
ed
inte
gra
tio
n o
f w
eat
he
r an
d c
limat
e
mo
de
ls w
ith
sp
atia
l so
cial
dat
a al
low
s
for
mo
re c
om
pre
he
nsi
ve a
sse
ssm
en
t
of
bo
th h
azar
d a
nd
vu
lne
rab
ility
in a
sin
gle
fra
me
wo
rk.
Co
up
ling
cu
rre
nt
soci
al a
nd
en
viro
nm
en
tal c
on
dit
ion
s
wit
h c
limat
e c
han
ge
sce
nar
ios
has
th
e p
ote
nti
al f
or
mo
de
ling
of
po
ten
tial
fu
ture
ris
ks w
ith
asso
ciat
ed
un
cert
ain
tie
s. T
he
ran
ge
of
un
cert
ain
ty, h
ow
eve
r, m
ay v
ary
sig
nif
ican
tly
amo
ng
dif
fere
nt
reg
ion
s
and
wh
en
mo
vin
g f
rom
glo
bal
to
reg
ion
al s
cale
s o
f cl
imat
e p
roje
ctio
ns.
Wit
h d
eve
lop
me
nt
of
ne
xt
ge
ne
rati
on
of
glo
bal
an
d r
eg
ion
al
clim
ate
mo
de
ls a
nd
imp
rove
d
me
tho
ds
for
do
wn
scal
ing
of
clim
ate
chan
ge
pro
ject
ion
s, t
he
un
cert
ain
ty
will
de
cre
ase
. In
th
e m
ean
tim
e,
inco
rpo
rati
ng
sci
en
tifi
c u
nce
rtai
nty
into
ris
k m
anag
em
en
t an
d c
limat
e
chan
ge
ad
apta
tio
n d
eci
sio
n m
akin
g is
an im
po
rtan
t co
nsi
de
rati
on
.
Ho
w r
isk
asse
ssm
en
ts a
re u
sed
an
d
by
wh
om
ult
imat
ely
de
term
ine
th
e
app
rop
riat
e s
cale
of
risk
an
alys
is.
Nat
ion
al a
nd
glo
bal
ass
ess
me
nts
pro
vid
e a
big
pic
ture
of
haz
ard
s
and
vu
lne
rab
iliti
es
at t
he
sca
le
that
mo
st c
lose
ly m
atch
es
pro
ject
ion
s fr
om
glo
bal
clim
ate
mo
de
ls.
Inn
ov
atio
n in
bri
dg
ing
glo
bal
clim
ate
dat
a w
ith
haz
ard
map
pin
g d
em
on
stra
tes
chan
gin
g
spat
ial p
atte
rns
of
haz
ard
ev
en
ts
and
th
e in
ters
ect
ion
wit
h h
um
an
sett
lem
en
t an
d d
ev
elo
pm
en
t.
Inte
gra
tin
g c
limat
e p
roje
ctio
ns
wit
h s
pat
ial d
ata
on
exi
stin
g h
azar
d
ho
tsp
ots
can
he
lp t
o id
en
tify
like
ly f
utu
re “
ho
tsp
ots
” fo
r h
azar
d
acti
vit
y an
d s
oci
al v
uln
era
bili
ty
(Fig
ure
1).
A c
en
tral
ch
alle
ng
e o
f
inco
rpo
rati
ng
so
cial
vu
lne
rab
ility
at t
his
sca
le, h
ow
ev
er,
is a
lack
of
avai
lab
le a
nd
co
nsi
ste
nt
dat
a
acro
ss t
he
glo
be
. Pro
xy d
ata
for
soci
al v
uln
era
bili
ty t
o f
ill in
curr
en
t g
aps
allo
ws
the
sci
en
ce o
f
asse
ssm
en
ts t
o m
ov
e f
orw
ard
.
% C
han
ge
in r
un
off
po
pu
lati
on
de
nsi
ty
Fig
ure
1 .
Sp
atia
l ov
erl
ay o
f p
roje
cte
d
chan
ge
s in
ru
n-o
ff a
nd
cu
rre
nt
po
pu
la-
tio
n d
en
sity
. So
urc
e: A
dam
o a
nd
de
Sh
erb
inin
(2
00
9).
Th
e im
pac
t o
f cl
imat
e
chan
ge
on
th
e s
pat
ial d
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f
po
pu
lati
on
s an
d m
igra
tio
n, P
roce
ed
ing
s
of
the
Exp
ert
Gro
up
Me
eti
ng
on
Mig
ra-
tio
n, N
ew
Yo
rk: U
.N. P
op
ula
tio
n D
ivis
ion
Dis
ast
er
Ris
k
Ass
ess
me
nt
in C
urr
en
t a
nd
Fu
ture
C
lima
tes
Pre
dic
tin
g f
utu
re c
han
ge
s in
th
ese
haz
ard
s u
nd
er
a
war
min
g c
limat
e is
a c
hal
len
gin
g t
ask,
esp
eci
ally
at
the
re
gio
nal
an
d lo
cal s
cale
. Eq
ual
ly c
hal
len
gin
g a
nd
imp
ort
ant
is u
nd
ers
tan
din
g a
nd
ch
arac
teri
zin
g t
he
curr
en
t an
d f
utu
re s
oci
al s
yste
ms
that
are
be
ing
affe
cte
d b
y cl
imat
ic h
azar
ds
and
an
y an
tici
pat
ed
chan
ge
s in
th
ese
nat
ura
l ph
en
om
en
a. I
n f
act,
we
un
de
rsta
nd
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
s a
pro
du
ct o
f n
atu
ral
ph
en
om
en
a ( h
azar
d)
and
so
cial
ch
arac
teri
stic
s
( vu
lne
rab
ility
). T
his
dis
tin
ctio
n b
etw
ee
n h
azar
ds
and
vu
lne
rab
ility
is a
cri
tica
l gu
idin
g p
rin
cip
le in
dis
aste
r ri
sk
red
uct
ion
an
d c
limat
e c
han
ge
ad
apta
tio
n. W
hile
clim
atic
haz
ard
s ca
nn
ot
be
pre
ve
nte
d, t
he
ris
k o
f an
d n
eg
ativ
e
imp
acts
fro
m c
limat
e a
nd
we
ath
er-
rela
ted
dis
aste
rs
can
be
re
du
ced
wit
h a
fo
cuse
d a
nd
tar
ge
ted
att
en
tio
n
to s
oci
eta
l vu
lne
rab
ility
.
We
de
fin
e v
uln
era
bili
ty o
f th
e s
yste
m a
s a
fun
ctio
n o
f
thre
e in
tera
ctiv
e c
om
po
ne
nts
: exp
osu
re, s
en
siti
vit
y,
and
ad
apti
ve
cap
acit
y (W
ilhe
lmi a
nd
Hay
de
n, 2
01
0).
Eac
h c
om
po
ne
nt
con
sist
s o
f a
set
of
dyn
amic
, sp
atia
lly
var
iab
le in
dic
ato
rs, w
hic
h in
tu
rn a
re a
ffe
cte
d b
y
ext
ern
al d
riv
ers
, su
ch a
s cl
imat
e c
han
ge
an
d m
acro
-
scal
e s
oci
o-e
con
om
ic t
raje
cto
rie
s (e
.g.,
urb
aniz
atio
n).
Po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
, lan
d u
se p
ract
ice
s, a
nd
pat
tern
s
of
urb
aniz
atio
n c
an a
ffe
ct e
xpo
sure
of
po
pu
lati
on
to
clim
atic
haz
ard
s, s
uch
as
coas
tal f
loo
din
g o
r e
xtre
me
he
at. S
imu
ltan
eo
usl
y, n
on
-clim
atic
fac
tors
su
ch a
s ag
ing
,
po
ve
rty,
pre
-exi
stin
g h
eal
th c
on
dit
ion
s, a
nd
mig
rati
on
pat
tern
s d
ete
rmin
e s
en
siti
vit
y, t
he
de
gre
e t
o w
hic
h
a so
cie
ty is
aff
ect
ed
by
clim
ate
str
ess
es.
Ad
apti
ve
cap
acit
y is
th
e p
ote
nti
al t
o m
od
ify
feat
ure
s an
d
be
hav
iors
of
soci
al a
nd
en
vir
on
me
nta
l sys
tem
s in
ord
er
to b
ett
er
cop
e w
ith
exi
stin
g a
nd
an
tici
pat
ed
clim
atic
stre
sse
s. I
n m
any
case
s, it
is t
he
sta
rtin
g p
oin
t fo
r an
auto
no
mo
us
adap
tati
on
to
clim
ate
ch
ang
e.
Incr
eas
ed
adap
tiv
e c
apac
ity
is li
nke
d t
o in
cre
ase
d r
esi
lien
ce—
or
the
ab
ility
to
re
cov
er
fro
m e
nv
iro
nm
en
tal c
han
ge
and
dis
rup
tio
n. T
o b
ett
er
un
de
rsta
nd
, ch
arac
teri
ze,
and
re
du
ce s
oci
eta
l vu
lne
rab
ility
it is
imp
ort
ant
to
incl
ud
e a
ll it
s d
ynam
ic e
lem
en
ts in
cu
rre
nt
and
fu
ture
asse
ssm
en
ts. P
rese
nt-
day
vu
lne
rab
ility
an
d h
isto
ric
reco
rd o
f p
lace
-sp
eci
fic
haz
ard
ou
s e
ve
nts
pro
vid
e a
bas
elin
e f
or
the
ass
ess
me
nts
of
curr
en
t ri
sks
and
a
star
tin
g p
oin
t fo
r b
uild
ing
fu
ture
sce
nar
ios,
mit
igat
ion
Olg
a W
ilhe
lmi
Pro
ject
Sci
en
tist
Nat
ion
al C
en
ter
for
Atm
osp
he
ric
Re
sear
ch
& Han
nah
Bre
nke
rt-S
mit
h
Po
std
oct
ora
l Fe
llow
Nat
ion
al C
en
ter
for
Atm
osp
he
ric
Re
sear
ch
Flo
od
s, d
rou
gh
ts,
he
at
wa
ve
s, a
nd
sto
rms
ha
ve
a
lwa
ys
be
en
pa
rt o
f h
um
an
liv
es
be
ca
use
th
ey
a
re a
no
rma
l p
art
of
clim
ate
va
ria
bili
ty a
nd
lo
ca
l w
ea
the
r p
att
ern
s. H
ow
ev
er,
th
e o
bse
rve
d t
ren
ds
an
d
pro
jec
ted
c
ha
ng
es
in
glo
ba
l c
lima
te
ha
ve
th
e p
ote
nti
al
to a
lte
r p
att
ern
s o
f th
ese
clim
ati
c
ha
zard
s a
nd
ext
rem
e w
ea
the
r e
ve
nts
.
> 4
05
mill
ion
pe
op
le li
ve
in r
eg
ion
s w
he
re t
he
ru
n-o
ff is
pro
ject
ed
to
de
clin
e b
y m
ore
th
an 2
0%
by
20
80
11
13
12
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
lack
dat
a an
d in
form
atio
n n
ece
ssar
y
for
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
t
and
pre
ve
nti
on
. W
ith
exi
stin
g
chal
len
ge
s in
co
mm
un
icat
ion
and
lim
ite
d c
apac
ity
of
ear
ly
war
nin
gs
syst
em
s, d
isas
ter
risk
man
age
me
nt
and
clim
ate
ch
ang
e
adap
tati
on
re
mai
n d
eco
up
led
.
Lo
cal a
nd
inst
itu
tio
nal
fo
ci r
em
ain
on
dis
aste
r re
spo
nse
an
d r
elie
f
rath
er
than
on
an
tici
pat
ory
act
ion
to m
anag
e d
isas
ters
an
d m
itig
ate
like
ly im
pac
ts.
Mo
vin
g f
rom
“R
elie
f
to R
esi
lien
ce”
(Tab
le 1
) re
qu
ire
s
imp
rov
ing
war
nin
g s
yste
ms,
stre
ng
the
nin
g v
uln
era
bili
ty
asse
ssm
en
ts, p
rom
oti
ng
re
silie
nt
live
liho
od
s, a
nd
a f
ocu
s o
n lo
w-c
ost
inn
ov
atio
ns
that
can
be
un
de
rtak
en
in t
he
co
nte
xt o
f lim
ite
d r
eso
urc
es.
Au
ton
om
ou
s ad
apta
tio
n is
oft
en
alre
ady
un
de
rway
an
d m
ore
feas
ible
at
the
loca
l sca
le. B
uild
ing
inst
itu
tio
nal
cap
acit
y, lo
cal
cap
acit
y, a
nd
en
gag
ing
co
mm
un
ity
par
tici
pat
ion
in r
isk
asse
ssm
en
ts is
crit
ical
to
dis
aste
r ri
sk r
ed
uct
ion
and
clim
ate
ch
ang
e a
dap
tati
on
in
bo
th d
ev
elo
pin
g a
nd
de
ve
lop
ed
con
text
s.
Ev
en
sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt d
isas
ter
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
oft
en
lack
de
taile
d in
form
atio
n a
bo
ut
soci
al v
uln
era
bili
ty a
nd
ad
apti
ve
cap
acit
y at
th
e a
pp
rop
riat
e s
cale
.
Pre
vio
us
rese
arch
ind
icat
es
that
a co
mb
inat
ion
of
top
-do
wn
an
d
bo
tto
m-u
p a
pp
roac
he
s e
nsu
re
that
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
ts a
re
adju
ste
d t
o lo
cal e
colo
gy
bu
t ar
e
pla
ced
in a
larg
er
pic
ture
of
clim
ate
and
nat
ion
al p
olic
ies.
Lo
cal-
lev
el,
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d a
sse
ssm
en
ts
he
lp t
o f
ocu
s o
n s
pe
cifi
c cu
ltu
ral
and
so
cial
co
nte
xts,
ch
arac
teri
ze
adap
tiv
e c
apac
ity
at h
ou
seh
old
or
com
mu
nit
y le
ve
l an
d in
ve
stig
ate
op
tio
ns
for
bo
th a
uto
no
mo
us
and
pla
nn
ed
ad
apta
tio
n.
Inco
rpo
rati
on
of
loca
l-le
ve
l ris
k
asse
ssm
en
ts in
to m
un
icip
al a
nd
nat
ion
al le
ve
l pla
ns,
wit
h t
he
inp
ut
fro
m c
limat
e c
han
ge
sci
en
ce
rem
ain
s a
chal
len
ge
. F
urt
he
r
imp
rov
em
en
ts n
ee
d t
o b
e m
ade
in t
he
do
wn
scal
ing
te
chn
iqu
es
of
clim
ate
ch
ang
e p
roje
ctio
ns
and
be
tte
r p
red
icti
on
s o
f ch
ang
es
in
haz
ard
s an
d e
xtre
me
s. A
wid
er
ran
ge
of
clim
ate
ch
ang
e p
roje
ctio
ns
eit
he
r fr
om
mu
lti-
mo
de
l or
mu
lti-
en
sem
ble
clim
ate
pro
ject
ion
s
is im
po
rtan
t fo
r q
uan
tify
ing
“wo
rst-
case
” an
d “
be
st-c
ase
”
haz
ard
sce
nar
ios
wit
h t
he
ran
ge
of
un
cert
ain
tie
s, t
hat
are
oft
en
lack
ing
in f
utu
re p
lan
nin
g a
nd
de
cisi
on
-mak
ing
. On
a s
oci
al s
cie
nce
sid
e, b
ett
er
char
acte
riza
tio
n o
f
the
dyn
amic
fac
tors
of
soci
eta
l
vu
lne
rab
ility
(i.e
., e
xpo
sure
,
sen
siti
vit
y, a
nd
ad
apti
ve
cap
acit
y)
at m
ult
iple
sca
les
is n
ee
de
d f
or
com
pre
he
nsi
ve
ass
ess
me
nts
of
risk
an
d r
isk
red
uct
ion
me
asu
res.
Ov
era
ll, f
urt
he
r re
sear
ch n
ee
ds
to
focu
s o
n a
mu
lti-
face
ted
, to
p-d
ow
n,
and
bo
tto
m-u
p a
nal
ysis
of
curr
en
t
and
fu
ture
ris
ks a
nal
ysis
wit
h
exp
licit
me
asu
rin
g a
nd
mo
de
ling
of
curr
en
t an
d f
utu
re h
azar
ds
and
vu
lne
rab
iliti
es.
Cap
ital
Ne
ed
s
Hu
man
Kn
ow
led
ge
of
clim
ate
ris
ks, c
on
serv
atio
n, a
gri
cult
ure
ski
lls
So
cial
Div
ers
ifie
d in
com
e s
ou
rce
s
Ph
ysic
alIr
rig
atio
n, s
ee
d &
gra
in s
tora
ge
fac
iliti
es
Nat
ura
lW
ate
r su
pp
ly, p
rod
uct
ive
lan
d
Fin
anci
alM
icro
-in
sura
nce
, var
ied
inco
me
s
Ta
ble
1: F
rom
Re
lief
to R
esi
lien
ce: e
lem
en
ts o
f ad
apti
ve
cap
acit
y an
d d
isas
ter
pre
par
ed
ne
ss in
ru
ral c
om
mu
nit
ies
Fig
ure
3. C
ity
of
Tun
is: S
torm
su
rge
s
exp
ect
ed
to
incr
eas
e t
o 1
.34
m a
nd
to
cau
se e
xte
nsi
ve
in
un
dat
ion
s o
f so
me
crit
ical
an
d c
en
tral
low
-lyi
ng
urb
an
are
as (
in b
lue
). S
ou
rce
: Big
io (
20
10
)
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Mit
ulo
Sile
ng
o, D
ire
cto
r o
f th
e
Dis
aste
r M
anag
em
en
t Tr
ain
ing
Ce
nte
r, M
ulu
ng
ush
i Un
ive
rsit
y
An
ton
y B
igio
, Se
nio
r U
rban
Sp
eci
alis
t, T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k
Pao
lo G
asp
arin
i, P
resi
de
nt
and
Fu
ll P
rofe
sso
r o
f G
eo
ph
ysic
s,
Nap
les
Un
ive
rsit
y, a
nd
Pre
sid
en
t
and
Sci
en
tifi
c D
ire
cto
r o
f A
MR
A
s.c.
a.r.l
.
Ale
x d
e S
he
rbin
in, S
en
ior
Sta
ff
Ass
oci
ate
fo
r R
ese
arch
, Th
e
Ear
th I
nst
itu
te a
t C
olu
mb
ia
Un
ive
rsit
y
Mar
gar
et
Arn
old
, Se
nio
r S
oci
al
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Sp
eci
alis
t, T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k
At
a su
b-n
atio
nal
lev
el,
mu
nic
ipal
or
reg
ion
al a
sse
ssm
en
ts a
llow
fo
r
mo
re g
en
era
lize
d in
ter-
com
par
iso
n
of
mu
lti-
haz
ard
ris
ks a
nd
str
ess
es
that
oft
en
incl
ud
e c
limat
e c
han
ge
.
Inn
ov
ativ
e a
pp
roac
he
s ar
e b
ein
g
de
ve
lop
ed
to
pro
du
ce u
rban
haz
ard
sce
nar
ios
thro
ug
h q
uan
tita
tiv
e
mu
lti-
risk
mo
de
ls a
nd
exp
licit
inte
gra
tio
n o
f cl
imat
e c
han
ge
pro
ject
ion
s in
to d
isas
ter
risk
asse
ssm
en
t. I
n m
ult
i-ri
sk m
od
els
(Fig
ure
2),
the
ph
ysic
al h
azar
ds
such
as
sto
rm s
urg
es,
urb
an h
eat
wav
es,
dro
ug
hts
, wild
lan
d f
ire
s,
and
se
a le
ve
l ris
e a
re t
rig
ge
red
by
the
ch
ang
e o
f cl
imat
e p
aram
ete
rs
(te
mp
era
ture
, wat
er
vap
or,
air
pre
ssu
re, e
tc.)
and
inte
ract
wit
h
eac
h o
the
r. P
rob
abili
stic
me
tho
ds
(i.e
., B
aye
sian
log
ic)
are
use
d t
o
pro
du
ce q
uan
tita
tiv
e h
azar
d
sce
nar
ios,
incl
ud
ing
th
e u
nce
rtai
nty
of
eac
h h
azar
d.
Sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt r
isk
asse
ssm
en
ts
of
urb
an h
azar
ds
incl
ud
e a
wid
e
spe
ctru
m o
f ac
tiv
itie
s, r
ang
ing
fro
m c
limat
e c
han
ge
mo
de
ling
to a
dap
tio
n a
ctio
n p
lan
nin
g.
Th
ey
inco
rpo
rate
Ge
og
rap
hic
Info
rmat
ion
Sys
tem
(G
IS)
map
pin
g,
coas
tal f
loo
din
g a
nd
sto
rm s
urg
e
mo
de
ling
, do
wn
scal
ing
of
clim
ate
chan
ge
pro
ject
ion
s to
loca
l le
ve
l,
urb
aniz
atio
n, a
nd
inst
itu
tio
nal
anal
ysis
an
d e
con
om
ic v
alu
atio
n.
Wo
rk a
t th
is le
ve
l pro
vid
es
op
po
rtu
nit
ies
to in
corp
ora
te
con
sid
era
tio
ns
for
pra
ctic
al
imp
lem
en
tati
on
(e
.g.,
urb
an d
esi
gn
and
pla
nn
ing
) b
ase
d o
n p
roje
ctio
ns
of
a p
hys
ical
haz
ard
(F
igu
re 3
).
Imp
ort
antl
y, t
his
re
sear
ch in
dic
ate
s
that
ad
apta
tio
n a
nd
incr
eas
ing
resi
lien
ce m
ust
be
un
de
rtak
en
in o
rde
r to
ad
dre
ss c
urr
en
t
chal
len
ge
s.
Man
y o
f th
e c
ou
ntr
ies
that
fac
e t
he
gre
ate
st c
hal
len
ge
s in
man
agin
g
haz
ard
/dis
aste
r ri
sk s
uff
er
fro
m
we
ak in
stit
uti
on
al c
apac
ity
and
lack
th
e m
ech
anis
ms
req
uir
ed
fo
r
add
ress
ing
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
t th
e
com
mu
nit
y le
ve
l. P
ov
ert
y it
self
serv
es
as a
maj
or
ob
stac
le t
o
pre
ve
nti
ng
imp
acts
. F
urt
he
rmo
re,
we
ak in
stit
uti
on
al c
apac
ity
limit
s
the
inte
gra
tio
n o
f d
isas
ter
risk
con
sid
era
tio
ns
into
exi
stin
g
de
ve
lop
me
nt
eff
ort
s an
d h
ind
ers
anti
cip
ato
ry a
dap
tati
on
. A
t th
e
com
mu
nit
y le
ve
l, lo
cal a
cto
rs o
fte
n
Fig
ure
2. A
mu
lti-
haz
ard
ris
k
asse
ssm
en
t. S
ou
rce
: Gas
pa-
rin
i an
d M
arzo
cch
i (2
01
0)
Haz
ard
Urb
an v
uln
era
bili
ty
Ru
ral v
uln
era
bili
ty
Fig
ure
2.A
mu
lti-
haz
ard
ris
k
asse
ssm
en
t. S
ou
rce
: Gas
pa-
rin
i an
d M
arzo
cch
i (2
01
0)
Haz
ard
Urb
an v
uln
era
bili
ty
Ru
ral v
uln
era
bili
ty
Clim
ate
ch
ang
e
Mu
lti r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t
Pe
op
leP
lace
sT
hin
gs
Tem
pe
ratu
reW
ind
Pre
cip
itat
ion
Ind
ivid
ual
lev
el
Co
mm
un
ity
lev
el
Go
ve
rnm
en
t le
ve
l
Pro
bab
ility
sce
nar
ios
Illn
ess
Hu
ng
er
Co
pin
g c
apac
ity
Re
silie
nce
Re
fug
ee
s
Th
e I
nte
rgo
ve
rnm
en
tal P
ane
l
on
Clim
ate
Ch
ang
e F
ou
rth
Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
po
rt (
IPC
C, 2
00
7)
sum
mar
ize
d c
han
ge
s in
clim
ate
and
we
ath
er-
rela
ted
haz
ard
s:
“Sin
ce 1
95
0, t
he
nu
mb
er
of
he
at w
ave
s h
as in
cre
ase
d a
nd
wid
esp
read
incr
eas
es
hav
e
occ
urr
ed
in t
he
nu
mb
ers
of
war
m
nig
hts
. Th
e e
xte
nt
of
reg
ion
s
affe
cte
d b
y d
rou
gh
ts h
as a
lso
incr
eas
ed
as
pre
cip
itat
ion
ov
er
lan
d h
as m
arg
inal
ly d
ecr
eas
ed
wh
ile e
vap
ora
tio
n h
as in
cre
ase
d
du
e t
o w
arm
er
con
dit
ion
s.
Ge
ne
rally
, nu
mb
ers
of
he
avy
dai
ly
pre
cip
itat
ion
ev
en
ts t
hat
lead
to f
loo
din
g h
ave
incr
eas
ed
, bu
t
no
t e
ve
ryw
he
re. T
rop
ical
sto
rm
and
hu
rric
ane
fre
qu
en
cie
s v
ary
con
sid
era
bly
fro
m y
ear
to
ye
ar,
bu
t e
vid
en
ce s
ug
ge
sts
sub
stan
tial
incr
eas
es
in in
ten
sity
an
d
du
rati
on
sin
ce t
he
19
70
s. I
n t
he
ext
ratr
op
ics,
var
iati
on
s in
tra
cks
and
inte
nsi
ty o
f st
orm
s re
fle
ct
var
iati
on
s in
maj
or
feat
ure
s o
f
the
atm
osp
he
ric
circ
ula
tio
n, s
uch
as t
he
No
rth
Atl
anti
c O
scill
atio
n.”
(pag
e 1
07
, Fre
qu
en
tly
Ask
ed
Qu
est
ion
s, h
ttp
://w
ww
.ipcc
.ch
/pd
f/
asse
ssm
en
t-re
po
rt/a
r4/w
g1
/ar4
-
wg
1-f
aqs.
pd
f)
Sou
rce:
Sile
ngo
, 20
10
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
Fa
rmin
g D
ata
: W
ha
t’s
Ne
w in
A
gri
cu
ltu
re R
isk
M
od
elin
g? Die
go
Ari
asS
en
ior
Ag
ricu
ltu
re E
con
om
ist
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
Th
e d
ev
elo
pm
en
t o
f in
de
x-b
ase
d i
nsu
ran
ce a
nd
d
eri
vat
ive
co
ntr
acts
fo
r ag
ricu
ltu
re
has
b
ee
n
faci
ng
te
chn
ical
ch
alle
ng
es
to t
he
mo
de
ling
of
we
ath
er
pat
tern
s th
at c
orr
ela
te w
ith
lo
sse
s to
fa
rme
rs a
nd
fin
d s
pat
ial
and
his
tori
cal
we
ath
er
dat
a fo
r as
sess
ing
pro
bab
iliti
es.
Th
is s
ess
ion
in t
he
U
nd
ers
tan
din
g R
isk
con
fere
nce
pre
sen
ted
so
me
o
f th
e n
ew
mo
de
ling
te
chn
iqu
es
the
Wo
rld
Ban
k
has
be
en
su
pp
ort
ing
to
tac
kle
te
chn
ical
ch
alle
ng
es
faci
ng
th
e
de
sig
n
of
ind
ex-
bas
ed
ag
ricu
ltu
re
insu
ran
ce
con
trac
ts.
Mo
de
ling
ra
in,
win
d,
and
fl
oo
d h
as b
ee
n i
mp
rov
ing
in
th
e p
ast
few
ye
ars,
an
d t
he
pre
sen
tati
on
s in
th
is s
ess
ion
sh
ow
case
d
ne
w m
eth
od
olo
gie
s an
d a
pp
roac
he
s. T
he
se
ssio
n’s
sp
eak
ers
re
pre
sen
ted
un
iqu
e l
ead
ers
in
th
e f
ield
o
f m
od
elin
g a
nd
ag
ricu
ltu
re r
isk
man
age
me
nt.
Photo: © Photos.com
15
14
17
16
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Th
ere
is o
fte
n a
lack
of
con
tin
uit
y
in w
eat
he
r re
cord
s an
d f
or
such
mo
un
tain
ou
s an
d m
icro
clim
ate
are
as, s
ate
llite
ap
pro
ach
es
are
no
t
suit
able
. T
he
ap
pro
ach
to
mo
de
ling
we
ath
er
in m
icro
clim
ate
s h
as
be
en
to
aim
fo
r a
mo
de
led
rai
nfa
ll
to b
eg
in w
ith
, mo
vin
g t
o g
aug
e-
con
tro
lled
ass
ess
me
nt
of
risk
s o
ve
r
tim
e, o
r p
erh
aps
som
e c
om
bin
atio
n
of
the
tw
o.
In t
his
mic
rocl
imat
e
situ
atio
n, f
or
insu
ran
ce c
on
trac
tin
g
pu
rpo
ses,
th
ere
’s a
ne
ed
to
ide
nti
fy
clu
ste
rs o
f p
rod
uce
rs w
ho
are
fac
ed
wit
h s
imila
r h
azar
d c
har
acte
rist
ics
(ho
mo
ge
no
us
agro
-clim
atic
zo
ne
s);
and
to
ass
ess
bo
th p
rob
abili
stic
haz
ard
s (f
or
con
trac
t d
esi
gn
an
d
pri
cin
g)
and
als
o s
ing
le e
ve
nt
imp
acts
(fo
r p
ayo
ut
calc
ula
tio
n).
Bu
ildin
g s
yn
the
tic
h
isto
ric
al d
ata
se
rie
s
On
e o
f th
e m
ajo
r co
nst
rain
ts f
or
the
de
velo
pm
en
t o
f ag
ricu
ltu
ral
fin
anci
al m
anag
em
en
t is
th
e la
ck o
f
me
teo
rolo
gic
al in
form
atio
n u
sual
ly
asso
ciat
ed
wit
h: (
i) lim
ite
d c
ove
rag
e
of
stat
ion
s; (
ii) m
issi
ng
dat
a in
th
e
his
tori
cal r
eco
rds;
an
d (
iii)
sho
rt h
is-
tori
cal r
eco
rd (
e.g
., re
cen
tly
inst
alle
d
stat
ion
s).
Usi
ng
we
ath
er
dat
a g
rid
s
fro
m N
AR
R (
a lo
ng
-te
rm, d
ynam
ical
ly,
con
sist
en
t, a
tmo
sph
eri
c an
d h
ydro
-
log
ic d
atab
ase
, wit
h h
igh
sp
atia
l an
d
tem
po
ral r
eso
luti
on
s, g
en
era
ted
wit
h t
he
nu
me
rica
l we
ath
er
mo
de
l
ETA
: htt
p://
ww
w.e
mc.
nce
p.n
oaa
.
go
v/m
mb
/rre
anl/
), g
rid
de
d d
atas
ets
can
be
ge
ne
rate
d w
ith
a s
ucc
ess
ive
corr
ect
ion
me
tho
d (
Cre
ssm
an, 1
95
9)
bas
ed
on
tw
o p
red
icto
rs: P
rim
ary
—M
ete
oro
log
ical
ob
serv
atio
ns;
an
d
Se
con
dar
y—N
ort
h A
me
rica
n R
e-
gio
nal
Re
anal
ysis
fro
m t
he
Nat
ion
al
Oce
anic
an
d A
tmo
sph
eri
c A
dm
in-
istr
atio
n (
NO
AA
) (M
esi
ng
er
et
al.
20
06
). N
AR
R is
use
d a
s a
pre
limin
ary
fie
ld (
seco
nd
pre
dic
tor)
. F
igu
re 3
sho
ws
the
layo
ut
for
the
dat
a g
rid
pro
du
ced
fo
r G
uat
em
ala,
sp
ann
ing
the
en
tire
co
un
try.
Taki
ng
dat
a fr
om
we
ath
er
serv
ice
s
on
an
“as
is”
bas
is is
no
t re
com
-
me
nd
ed
du
e t
o la
rge
err
ors
. In
the
cas
e o
f C
en
tral
Am
eri
ca, t
he
gri
dd
ed
dat
ase
ts w
ere
co
nsi
de
red
feas
ible
, alt
ho
ug
h t
he
re
solu
tio
ns
we
re d
iffe
ren
t fo
r G
uat
em
ala
and
Ho
nd
ura
s, a
nd
, in
th
e c
ase
of
Ho
n-
du
ras,
fo
r d
iffe
ren
t v
aria
ble
s. G
rid
-
de
d d
atas
ets
imp
ly s
mo
oth
ing
of
the
ori
gin
al o
bse
rvat
ion
s; h
ow
ev
er,
risk
an
alys
is is
mo
re c
on
cern
ed
wit
h
cap
turi
ng
th
e p
rob
abili
tie
s o
f lo
sse
s
than
th
e e
xact
mag
nit
ud
e o
f ca
ta-
stro
ph
ic e
ve
nts
. Th
us,
su
ch g
rid
de
d
dat
a se
ts p
rov
ide
an
imp
ort
ant
too
l
for
filli
ng
th
e g
aps
in h
isto
rica
l dat
a-
sets
fo
r in
sura
nce
pu
rpo
ses
and
ris
k
mo
de
ling
.
0 1 –
25
0
25
1 –
50
0
50
1 –
75
0
75
1 –
1,0
00
1,0
01
– 1
,25
0
1,2
51
– 1
,50
0
1,5
01
– 1
,75
0
1,7
51
– 2
,00
0
2,0
01
– 2
,25
0
Fig
ure
2. C
GM
C B
lue
Mo
un
tain
Co
ffe
e R
eg
ion
Pro
ject
CIB
Clu
ste
rs a
nd
1km
Bu
ffe
r
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Ch
rist
op
he
r G
en
tle
s, C
EO
Co
ffe
e I
nd
ust
ry B
oar
d, J
amai
ca
Jo
se L
uis
Mo
nca
da,
Pre
sid
en
t o
f
the
Fe
de
raci
ón
In
tera
me
rica
na
de
Em
pre
sas
de
Se
gu
ros
(FID
ES
)
Tech
nic
al C
om
mit
tee
Sim
on
Yo
un
g, C
EO
, Car
ibb
ean
Ris
k M
anag
ers
Ltd
Ale
x L
otc
h, S
en
ior
Car
bo
n
Fin
ance
Sp
eci
alis
t,
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
Will
iam
Dic
k, A
gri
cult
ure
and
Ru
ral D
eve
lop
me
nt,
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
Ed
gar
Uri
be
, Co
nsu
ltan
t,
Ag
ricu
ltu
re a
nd
Ru
ral
De
ve
lop
me
nt,
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
Fig
ure
3. G
uat
em
ala’
s w
eat
he
r d
ata
gri
d
Flo
od
ris
k m
od
elin
g
De
line
atin
g f
loo
d r
isk
is c
hal
len
gin
g
du
e t
o: (
i) th
e d
iffi
cult
ies
of
ide
nti
fyin
g e
x-an
te d
ire
ct a
nd
ind
ire
ct d
amag
es;
(ii)
th
e d
iffe
ren
t
typ
es
of
flo
od
ris
k an
d t
he
fac
t
that
no
t al
l can
be
mo
de
led
; an
d
(iii)
the
fac
t th
at a
gri
cult
ura
l
asse
ts (
cro
ps)
ch
ang
e o
ve
r ti
me
(se
aso
n).
Th
us,
in o
rde
r to
be
ab
le
to f
ore
cast
or
de
sig
n a
gri
cult
ure
insu
ran
ce c
on
trac
ts a
gai
nst
flo
od
ing
, co
mp
reh
en
siv
e a
nd
com
ple
x m
od
elin
g is
ne
ed
ed
. In
ge
ne
ral,
flo
od
mo
de
ls, e
ve
n s
imp
le
on
es,
are
re
lati
ve
ly c
om
ple
x.
Fu
rth
erm
ore
, th
ere
are
dif
fere
nt
and
he
tero
ge
ne
ou
s d
ata
sou
rce
s
for
flo
od
info
rmat
ion
, su
ch a
s
rain
fall,
riv
er
flo
w (
spe
ed
, de
pth
),
lev
el o
f re
serv
oir
s, e
tc. H
ow
ev
er,
som
e c
on
sid
era
tio
ns
and
ad
van
ces
hav
e b
ee
n d
ev
elo
pe
d f
or
flo
od
ris
k
mo
de
ling
usi
ng
re
mo
te s
en
sin
g
to h
elp
“ca
libra
te”
flo
od
mo
de
ls
and
ass
ess
flo
od
imp
act,
bu
t th
at
req
uir
e t
ech
nic
al c
apac
ity.
Alt
ho
ug
h f
loo
d in
sura
nce
is
dif
ficu
lt t
o p
ut
in p
lace
(d
ue
to
the
loca
lize
d n
atu
re o
f fl
oo
ds,
wat
er
man
age
me
nt
issu
es,
an
d
that
dam
age
ass
ess
me
nts
are
tim
e s
en
siti
ve
), it
can
be
do
ne
.
Ho
we
ve
r, it
re
qu
ire
s so
me
“h
eav
y
lifti
ng
” in
te
rms
of:
(i)
Tech
nic
al
cap
acit
y (o
fte
n a
bse
nt
in d
ev
elo
pin
g
cou
ntr
ies)
; (ii)
Sta
keh
old
er
coo
rdin
atio
n; (
iii)
Trai
nin
g, e
du
cati
on
,
and
tru
st b
uild
ing
wit
h b
anks
,
insu
rers
, re
insu
rers
, far
me
rs, e
tc.;
(iv)
Inv
est
me
nt
in w
eat
he
r an
d
agri
cult
ure
dat
a; a
nd
(v
) E
stab
lish
ing
and
inv
est
ing
in a
bro
ade
r ri
sk
man
age
me
nt
fram
ew
ork
(ri
sk
red
uct
ion
). N
ev
ert
he
less
, re
mo
te
sen
sin
g is
a p
ow
erf
ul t
ech
no
log
y
to s
up
po
rt b
oth
insu
ran
ce a
nd
ex-
po
st d
isas
ter
relie
f/co
mp
en
sati
on
(wh
eth
er
or
no
t ri
sk is
tra
nsf
err
ed
by
insu
ran
ce)
for
flo
od
ris
k. I
t is
a
pro
mis
ing
fie
ld in
wh
ich
(re
-)in
sure
rs
hav
e s
ho
we
d in
tere
st.
Mo
de
ling
we
ath
er
in
mic
roc
lima
tes
Ind
ex-
bas
ed
insu
ran
ce p
rov
ide
s
a p
ote
nti
al s
olu
tio
n f
or
man
agin
g
we
ath
er
risk
s in
hill
sid
e a
gri
cult
ure
syst
em
s. H
ow
ev
er,
th
e s
mal
l
nu
mb
er
of
farm
ers
an
d s
ize
of
the
cult
ivat
ed
are
a, a
nd
th
e v
aria
bili
ty in
haz
ard
lev
els
ov
er
sho
rt d
ista
nce
s
cre
ate
gre
at c
hal
len
ge
s to
re
du
cin
g
bas
is r
isk
to a
n a
cce
pta
ble
lev
el.
Fig
ure
2 s
ho
ws
the
loca
tio
n o
f
the
far
m c
lust
ers
th
at r
ep
rese
nt
agro
clim
atic
ho
mo
ge
no
us
zon
es.
Ev
en
wh
en
so
me
of
the
se c
lust
ers
are
less
th
an 1
km a
par
t, t
he
y
hav
e q
uit
e d
iffe
ren
t ag
rocl
imat
ic
con
dit
ion
s, w
hic
h p
ose
s te
chn
ical
chal
len
ge
s fo
r m
od
elli
ng
ris
ks
and
de
sig
nin
g in
de
x-in
sura
nce
sch
em
es.
(In
oth
er
reg
ion
s w
ith
few
er
mic
rocl
imat
es,
clu
ste
rs c
an
hav
e u
p t
o a
10
km r
adiu
s.)
Oth
er
tech
nic
al c
hal
len
ge
s to
de
sig
nin
g a
n
ind
ex
bas
ed
pro
du
ct in
clu
de
: (i)
lack
of
his
tori
cal w
ind
an
d r
ain
dat
a in
the
co
ffe
e-g
row
ing
are
a; (
ii) la
ck o
f
qu
anti
tati
ve
imp
acts
of
pas
t e
ve
nts
on
ind
ivid
ual
co
ffe
e t
ree
s; a
nd
(iii
)
lack
of
qu
anti
tati
ve
imp
acts
of
pas
t
ev
en
ts o
n t
he
ind
ust
ry a
s a
wh
ole
.
Fu
rth
erm
ore
, rai
n d
ata
is o
fte
n
pat
chy
and
pe
ak e
ve
nts
are
no
t
we
ll re
cord
ed
by
man
ual
gau
ge
s.
1st
- 4
th
5th
- 7
th
8th
- 1
0th
Fig
ure
1. R
elat
ive
econ
omic
lo
sses
du
e to
flo
ods
Far
min
g D
ata
19
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mC
om
mu
nit
y-B
ase
d R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
tC
om
mu
nit
y-B
ase
d
Co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
ris
k as
sess
me
nts
are
co
nst
antl
y
un
de
rtak
en
all
ov
er
the
glo
be
by
a ra
ng
e o
f n
on
-st
ate
, ci
vil
soci
ety
, co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
, an
d v
olu
n-
tee
r o
rgan
izat
ion
s. T
he
we
alth
of
kno
wle
dg
e g
en
-e
rate
d b
y th
ese
par
tici
pat
ory
pro
cess
es
ne
ed
s to
in
form
an
d d
riv
e d
isas
ter
de
cisi
on
-mak
ing
no
t o
nly
at
th
e lo
cal l
ev
el,
bu
t al
so s
ub
-nat
ion
ally
, nat
ion
ally
, re
gio
nal
ly, a
nd
glo
bal
ly.
Photo: Michel Matera, GFDRR
Dan
iel K
ull
Se
nio
r O
ffic
er,
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Re
du
ctio
n
Inte
rnat
ion
al F
ed
era
tio
n o
f R
ed
Cro
ss a
nd
Re
d C
resc
en
t S
oci
eti
es
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
ris
k
at
the
loc
al l
ev
el
Th
e m
ajo
rity
of
civi
l so
cie
ty
org
aniz
atio
ns
use
so
me
fo
rm o
f
par
tici
pat
ory
inve
stig
atio
n t
o
un
de
rsta
nd
th
e le
vel o
f p
eo
ple
’s
exp
osu
re a
nd
cap
acit
y to
re
sist
haz
ard
s at
th
e g
rass
-ro
ots
leve
l. It
is a
n in
teg
ral p
art
of
com
mu
nit
y-
bas
ed
dis
aste
r p
rep
are
dn
ess
an
d
risk
re
du
ctio
n, e
nab
ling
pe
op
le t
o
ide
nti
fy, b
ett
er
un
de
rsta
nd
, an
d
pri
ori
tise
th
e r
isks
th
ey
face
, eve
n
if t
he
se a
re n
ot
rela
ted
to
nat
ura
l
haz
ard
s. L
oca
l ris
k as
sess
me
nt
lead
s to
th
e d
esi
gn
of
acti
on
s th
at
stre
ng
the
n c
om
mu
nit
y sa
fety
and
re
silie
nce
, le
vera
gin
g e
xist
ing
cap
acit
ies
and
if n
ee
de
d e
nab
ling
for
pro
pe
r re
qu
est
ing
an
d t
arg
eti
ng
of
ext
ern
al r
eso
urc
es.
In
ord
er
for
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t
to b
e m
ean
ing
ful i
t ca
nn
ot
be
con
sid
ere
d a
map
pin
g p
roce
ss
cove
rin
g o
nly
infr
astr
uct
ure
;
dif
feri
ng
loca
l an
d c
ult
ura
l
pe
rce
pti
on
s o
f vu
lne
rab
ility
an
d
risk
als
o n
ee
d t
o b
e c
aptu
red
an
d
con
sid
ere
d.
Th
ere
are
a r
ang
e o
f to
ols
avai
lab
le f
or
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d
risk
ass
ess
me
nt,
allo
win
g f
or
fle
xib
ility
of
me
tho
do
log
y to
ad
apt
to s
pe
cifi
c co
nte
xts.
Ge
ne
rally
a m
ix o
f to
ols
an
d m
eth
od
s ar
e
use
d, i
ncl
ud
ing
fo
r e
xam
ple
: se
mi-
stru
ctu
red
inte
rvie
ws,
fo
cus
gro
up
dis
cuss
ion
s, d
ire
ct o
bse
rvat
ion
s,
tran
sect
wal
ks, s
eas
on
al c
ale
nd
ars,
his
tori
cal p
rofi
les,
ho
use
ho
ld
vu
lne
rab
ility
ass
ess
me
nt,
liv
elih
oo
ds
anal
ysis
, in
stit
uti
on
al a
nd
so
cial
ne
two
rk a
nal
ysis
, Ve
nn
dia
gra
ms,
and
co
llect
ion
an
d r
ev
iew
of
seco
nd
ary
dat
a. T
he
se p
rim
arily
par
tici
pat
ory
ap
pro
ach
es
also
pro
vid
e o
pp
ort
un
itie
s to
sh
are
up
-
to-d
ate
sci
en
tifi
c in
form
atio
n w
ith
com
mu
nit
ies,
alt
ho
ug
h t
his
re
qu
ire
s
no
n-t
ech
nic
al d
ialo
gu
e e
nab
ling
com
mu
nit
ies
to f
ind
re
lev
ance
wit
h
the
ev
en
ts t
he
y e
xpe
rie
nce
in t
he
ir
dai
ly li
ve
s.
As
a m
ix o
f q
ual
itat
ive
an
d
qu
anti
tati
ve
ap
pro
ach
es,
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t
ten
ds
to f
ocu
s o
n t
he
vu
lne
rab
ility
and
cap
acit
y as
pe
cts
of
risk
—in
fact
th
e R
ed
Cro
ss R
ed
Cre
sce
nt
app
roac
h is
nam
ed
Vu
lne
rab
ility
an
d
Cap
acit
y A
sse
ssm
en
t (V
CA
). W
hile
haz
ard
ass
ess
me
nts
are
oft
en
incl
ud
ed
in s
uch
pro
cess
es,
th
ey
curr
en
tly
ten
d n
ot
to u
tiliz
e m
uch
scie
nti
fic
info
rmat
ion
. Ho
we
ve
r
as d
ata
avai
lab
ility
an
d r
eso
luti
on
con
tin
uo
usl
y im
pro
ve
, te
chn
ical
haz
ard
an
alys
es
are
mo
re a
nd
mo
re
be
com
ing
av
aila
ble
at
the
loca
l
lev
el.
Sti
ll, lo
cal u
se o
f te
chn
ical
dat
a co
nti
nu
es
to b
e c
hal
len
ge
d
by
info
rmat
ion
de
live
ry, s
om
eti
me
s
du
e t
o a
lack
of
loca
l cap
acit
y
for
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
or
pro
cess
ing
scie
nti
fic
info
rmat
ion
.
Co
mm
un
ity
-dri
ve
n
dis
ast
er
risk
m
an
ag
em
en
t
Co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
sho
uld
no
t b
e p
erf
orm
ed
sim
ply
to
colle
ct in
form
atio
n, b
ut
rath
er
form
a co
re c
om
po
ne
nt
of
com
mu
nit
y-
bas
ed
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t.
Sim
ply
by
be
ing
en
gag
ed
th
rou
gh
par
tici
pat
ory
ass
ess
me
nt
pro
cess
es,
com
mu
nit
y aw
are
ne
ss a
nd
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
risk
s ar
e e
nh
ance
d.
Eq
ual
ly im
po
rtan
t, t
hro
ug
h
“le
arn
ing
by
do
ing
” co
mm
un
itie
s
reco
gn
ize
th
eir
ow
n c
apac
itie
s an
d
app
roac
he
s fo
r m
anag
ing
ris
k. T
his
ge
ne
rate
s a
sen
se o
f o
wn
ers
hip
an
d
em
po
we
rme
nt,
inst
illin
g a
cu
ltu
re
of
pre
ven
tio
n w
ith
in v
uln
era
ble
com
mu
nit
ies.
Du
rin
g a
nd
aft
er
a co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
ris
k as
sess
me
nt,
loca
l
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t p
lan
s ar
e
oft
en
de
ve
lop
ed
. Th
ese
can
incl
ud
e
con
tin
ge
ncy
pla
ns,
de
fin
ing
no
t o
nly
wh
at t
o d
o in
cas
e o
f a
dis
aste
r,
bu
t al
so w
ho
will
be
re
spo
nsi
ble
for
cert
ain
act
ivit
ies.
Fre
qu
en
tly
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d d
isas
ter
risk
man
age
me
nt
is im
ple
me
nte
d b
y
vo
lun
tee
rs a
nd
loca
l org
aniz
atio
ns,
hig
hlig
hti
ng
ag
ain
th
e n
ee
d f
or
par
tici
pat
ory
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
an
d
dia
log
ue
.
A v
arie
ty o
f ac
tiv
itie
s, a
s p
rio
riti
zed
and
de
fin
ed
by
the
co
mm
un
itie
s
the
mse
lve
s, n
atu
rally
fo
llow
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d r
isk
asse
ssm
en
ts,
for
exa
mp
le m
icro
mit
igat
ion
pro
ject
s. P
artn
er
org
aniz
atio
ns
oft
en
pro
vid
e s
mal
l gra
nts
to
sup
po
rt im
ple
me
nta
tio
n, w
ith
th
e
agre
em
en
t th
at t
he
co
mm
un
ity
do
es
mo
st o
f th
e w
ork
. Te
chn
ical
18
21
20
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mC
om
mu
nit
y-B
ase
d R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
info
rmat
ion
he
lpin
g g
uid
e la
rge
r ri
sk
man
age
me
nt
pro
ject
s, a
s w
ell
as
pro
vid
ing
str
on
g r
eco
mm
en
dat
ion
s
for
nat
ion
al a
nd
go
ve
rnm
en
t an
d
stak
eh
old
ers
.
Th
ere
are
, ho
we
ve
r, c
hal
len
ge
s in
uti
lizin
g d
ow
nst
ream
info
rmat
ion
for
up
stre
am d
eci
sio
n-m
akin
g.
Cu
rre
ntl
y, n
o u
niv
ers
al s
yste
m
exi
sts
to c
aptu
re a
nd
co
nso
lidat
e
this
vas
t d
ata
fro
m t
ho
usa
nd
s o
f
sou
rce
s, a
lth
ou
gh
so
me
inte
rest
ing
init
iati
ve
s ad
dre
ssin
g t
his
ch
alle
ng
e
exi
st. O
ne
inn
ov
ativ
e e
ffo
rt t
o u
se
com
mu
nit
y in
form
atio
n t
o in
flu
en
ce
hig
he
r-le
ve
l de
cisi
on
-mak
ing
is
the
Vie
ws
fro
m t
he
Fro
ntl
ine
of
the
Glo
bal
Ne
two
rk o
f C
ivil
So
cie
ty O
rgan
izat
ion
s fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n, w
hic
h p
rov
ide
s a
loca
l
pe
rsp
ect
ive
of
pro
gre
ss t
ow
ard
s
imp
lem
en
tati
on
of
the
Hyo
go
Fra
me
wo
rk f
or
Ac
tio
n. T
he
20
09
stu
dy
con
solid
ate
d 7
,00
0 “
vie
ws”
fro
m o
ve
r 4
00
org
aniz
atio
ns
in
48
co
un
trie
s, c
on
clu
din
g t
hat
:
N
atio
nal
ly-f
orm
ula
ted
po
licie
s
are
no
t g
en
era
tin
g w
ide
spre
ad
syst
em
ic c
han
ge
s in
loca
l
pra
ctic
es;
R
eso
urc
es
are
sca
rce
an
d
con
sid
ere
d o
ne
of
the
mai
n
con
stra
ints
to
pro
gre
ss
alth
ou
gh
th
ere
are
re
sou
rce
s
at a
loca
l le
ve
l wh
ich
re
mai
n
un
tap
pe
d;
T
he
fo
un
dat
ion
fo
r b
uild
ing
resi
lien
ce is
pe
op
le’s
aw
are
ne
ss
and
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
the
ris
ks
that
th
ey
face
; an
d
C
limat
e c
han
ge
pro
vid
es
a
thre
at a
nd
an
op
po
rtu
nit
y to
add
ress
un
de
rlyi
ng
ris
k fa
cto
rs
and
rai
se e
xte
rnal
re
sou
rce
s
and
po
litic
al c
om
mit
me
nt
for
bu
ildin
g r
esi
lien
ce.
Mo
vin
g f
orw
ard
Re
cog
niz
ing
th
at c
om
mu
nit
y-
bas
ed
ris
k as
sess
me
nts
fo
rm t
he
star
tin
g p
oin
t fo
r lo
we
rin
g r
isks
in
com
mu
nit
ies,
ass
ess
me
nts
sh
ou
ld b
e
leve
rag
ed
an
d s
tre
ng
the
ne
d t
o f
orm
kno
wle
dg
e-s
har
ing
me
chan
ism
s.
Ass
ess
me
nts
mu
st b
e b
ase
d
on
a c
om
mo
n la
ng
uag
e a
nd
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
in o
rde
r to
be
com
e
the
bas
is f
or
dia
log
ue
. Th
e m
ost
me
anin
gfu
l ou
tco
me
s sh
ou
ld a
lso
lead
to
gre
ate
r ac
cou
nta
bili
ty
tow
ard
s co
mm
un
itie
s at
ris
k.
Th
e u
tiliz
atio
n o
f co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
risk
ass
essm
ent
for
up
stre
am
dec
isio
n-m
akin
g r
equ
ires
mo
re t
han
just
info
rmat
ion
co
nso
lidat
ion
an
d
tran
sfer
; it
also
req
uir
es p
olit
ical
will
.
Co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed r
isk
asse
ssm
ent
add
s va
lue
at t
he
loca
l lev
el t
hro
ug
h
emp
ow
erm
ent,
so
cial
an
d p
olit
ical
incl
usi
on
, an
d lo
cal o
wn
ersh
ip
of
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
emen
t.
Ass
essm
ents
nee
d t
o b
e em
bed
ded
in w
ider
so
cial
pro
cess
es t
hat
are
of
clea
r b
enef
it t
o c
om
mu
nit
ies
wh
o a
re e
xpec
ted
to
par
tici
pat
e;
oth
erw
ise
they
will
no
t se
e a
ben
efit
an
d g
row
cyn
ical
of
sim
ply
bei
ng
info
rmat
ion
pro
vid
ers.
Th
e
asse
ssm
ent
pro
cess
can
hav
e a
role
in c
reat
ing
so
cial
dem
and
an
d p
olit
ical
spac
e w
hic
h e
nco
ura
ges
loca
l an
d
nat
ion
al g
ove
rnm
ent
to w
ork
mo
re
clo
sely
wit
h c
om
mu
nit
ies
and
loca
l
acto
rs. U
pst
ream
dec
isio
n-m
aker
s
ho
wev
er n
eed
to
rec
og
niz
e an
d v
alu
e
com
mu
nit
y in
pu
ts; o
ther
wis
e th
e
pro
cess
will
be
inef
fect
ive.
Ne
w t
ech
no
log
ies,
as
dis
cuss
ed
in
som
e o
f th
e o
the
r se
ssio
ns
of
the
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k co
nfe
ren
ce,
are
pro
vid
ing
ne
w o
pp
ort
un
itie
s
for
pe
rfo
rmin
g, c
on
solid
atin
g
and
co
mm
un
icat
ing
co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
ris
k as
sess
me
nt.
Co
rpo
rate
par
tne
rsh
ips,
wh
eth
er
rela
ted
to
the
se n
ew
co
mm
un
icat
ion
an
d
dat
a p
roce
ssin
g t
ech
no
log
ies
or
no
t, a
re s
ee
n a
s p
ote
nti
al v
eh
icle
s
for
lev
era
gin
g e
ng
age
me
nt
of
all a
cto
rs. I
f th
e p
riv
ate
se
cto
r
reco
gn
ise
s p
ote
nti
al a
dd
ed
val
ue
,
bo
th v
uln
era
ble
co
mm
un
itie
s an
d
go
ve
rnm
en
ts a
like
are
mo
re li
kely
to b
eco
me
en
gag
ed
.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Ed
mo
n A
zary
an, H
ead
of
Dis
aste
r
Man
age
me
nt
and
Po
pu
lati
on
Mo
ve
me
nt
De
par
tme
nt,
Arm
en
ian
Re
d C
ross
So
cie
ty
Nic
ole
Will
iam
s, D
isas
ter
Man
age
me
nt
Off
ice
r, I
FR
C,
Car
ibb
ean
Re
gio
nal
Re
pre
sen
tati
on
May
a A
ssaf
, Hu
man
itar
ian
an
d
Em
erg
en
cy A
ffai
rs M
anag
er,
Wo
rld
Vis
ion
In
tern
atio
nal
, Le
ban
on
Man
u G
up
ta, C
o-F
ou
nd
er
and
Dir
ect
or
of
SE
ED
S (
Su
stai
nab
le
En
vir
on
me
nt
& E
colo
gic
al
De
ve
lop
me
nt
So
cie
t
adv
ice
, an
d w
he
re n
ece
ssar
y,
app
rov
als
fro
m t
he
mu
nic
ipal
auth
ori
ty, a
re a
lso
so
licit
ed
. Du
e
to t
he
par
tici
pat
ory
nat
ure
of
the
risk
ass
ess
me
nt,
loca
l au
tho
riti
es
are
usu
ally
inv
olv
ed
fro
m t
he
be
gin
nin
g, e
nsu
rin
g a
gre
em
en
t
wit
h a
ny
pro
po
sed
ris
k re
du
ctio
n
me
asu
re, a
nd
to
a c
ert
ain
de
gre
e
stre
ng
the
nin
g s
ust
ain
abili
ty.
In g
en
era
l th
e p
roce
ss c
an a
nd
sho
uld
bri
ng
co
mm
un
itie
s an
d lo
cal
org
aniz
atio
ns
into
clo
ser
con
tact
and
ev
en
tual
par
tne
rsh
ips
wit
h
oth
er
acto
rs w
ork
ing
to
re
du
ce r
isk,
esp
eci
ally
loca
l go
ve
rnm
en
t.
Un
de
rlyi
ng
th
e f
lexi
ble
ap
pro
ach
to
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t,
the
re is
an
acc
ep
tan
ce t
hat
com
mu
nit
ies
kno
w t
he
ir o
wn
risk
s b
ett
er
than
an
y e
xte
rnal
org
aniz
atio
n o
r p
ers
on
, an
d
com
mu
nit
y p
rio
riti
es
can
be
vas
tly
dif
fere
nt
fro
m w
hat
su
pp
ort
ing
par
tne
rs m
igh
t e
xpe
ct. A
cla
ssic
exa
mp
le is
th
e c
ase
of
cert
ain
com
mu
nit
ies
in t
he
Mid
dle
Eas
t
ide
nti
fyin
g r
oad
saf
ety
as
a
pri
ori
ty o
ve
r d
rou
gh
ts, f
loo
ds,
and
co
nfl
ict.
Oft
en
co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
lead
s to
cro
ss-c
utt
ing
inte
gra
ted
dis
aste
r
risk
man
age
me
nt
app
roac
he
s,
wh
ich
, be
ing
de
man
d-d
riv
en
,
add
ress
mu
ltip
le r
isks
fac
ing
com
mu
nit
ies
day
-to
-day
as
we
ll as
lon
g t
erm
. Th
e r
esu
ltan
t m
ult
iplie
r
eff
ect
incr
eas
es
imp
act,
be
tte
r
stre
ng
the
nin
g o
ve
rall
resi
lien
ce. T
he
fau
x “h
um
anit
aria
n-d
ev
elo
pm
en
t
div
ide
” is
eas
ily o
ve
rco
me
at
the
loca
l le
ve
l th
rou
gh
de
man
d-d
riv
en
com
mu
nit
y-o
wn
ed
pro
gra
mm
ing
.
Exp
eri
en
ce h
as s
ho
wn
th
at
com
mu
nit
y-b
ase
d r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t
is a
use
ful e
vid
en
ce-b
ase
d a
dv
oca
cy
too
l fo
r im
pro
vin
g r
isk
man
age
me
nt.
It c
an h
igh
ligh
t th
e o
fte
n la
rge
gap
be
twe
en
th
e “
hav
es”
an
d t
he
“hav
e-n
ots
” n
ot
on
ly in
te
rms
of
we
lfar
e b
ut
also
kn
ow
led
ge
. It
he
lps
cre
ate
aw
are
ne
ss o
n r
isk
red
uct
ion
as
we
ll as
vie
win
g lo
cal
de
ve
lop
me
nt
wo
rk t
hro
ug
h a
ris
k
red
uct
ion
len
s. F
urt
he
r it
te
nd
s to
cre
ate
aw
are
ne
ss in
se
cto
rs o
uts
ide
of
risk
re
du
ctio
n, s
tim
ula
tin
g
cro
ss-s
ect
ora
l en
gag
em
en
t an
d
ide
nti
fyin
g in
no
vat
ive
ap
pro
ach
es.
Fin
ally
, co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
ris
k
asse
ssm
en
t ca
n b
rin
g lo
cal
go
ve
rnm
en
t in
to t
he
ce
nte
r st
age
of
risk
man
age
me
nt,
wh
ere
it
sho
uld
in a
ny
case
be
hig
hly
act
ive
.
Sti
ll, s
om
e c
hal
len
ge
s re
mai
n. W
hile
it is
cle
ar t
hat
co
mm
un
itie
s ar
e
acti
ve
pla
yers
in a
sse
ssin
g r
isk,
incl
ud
ing
go
od
tra
dit
ion
al p
ract
ice
s,
the
y st
ill o
fte
n h
ave
a p
rev
ailin
g
min
dse
t th
at d
isas
ters
loss
es
are
ine
vit
able
. Co
mm
un
itie
s ar
e o
fte
n
un
com
fort
able
wit
h q
uan
tita
tiv
e
surv
ey
me
tho
ds,
me
anin
g m
ore
inn
ov
ativ
e in
form
atio
n-g
ath
eri
ng
app
roac
he
s ar
e n
ee
de
d. F
inal
ly,
go
ve
rnm
en
ts a
re s
om
eti
me
s
relu
ctan
t to
par
tici
pat
e in
or
ev
en
reco
gn
ize
co
mm
un
ity-
inv
olv
ed
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
. Th
e q
ue
stio
n
aris
es
wh
eth
er
this
re
fle
cts
an
un
de
rest
imat
ion
of
com
mu
nit
y
cap
acit
y o
r co
nce
rns
abo
ut
acco
un
tab
ility
.
Info
rmin
g p
olic
y a
nd
d
ec
isio
n-m
ak
ing
In li
gh
t o
f g
lob
al c
om
mit
me
nts
to
en
gag
e a
nd
em
po
we
r co
mm
un
itie
s
in r
isk
man
age
me
nt—
incl
ud
ing
in t
he
Hyo
go
Fra
me
wo
rk f
or
Ac
tio
n —
cle
arly
co
mm
un
ity-
bas
ed
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
mu
st b
e t
ake
n
into
co
nsi
de
rati
on
in n
atio
nal
,
reg
ion
al, a
nd
glo
bal
de
cisi
on
-
mak
ing
an
d p
olic
ies.
Exp
eri
en
ce
has
sh
ow
n u
tilit
y in
loca
l ris
k
Fre
nch
Re
d C
ross
co
ord
inat
or
Mir
aji S
alu
m w
ith
tsu
nam
i-w
arn
ing
bill
bo
ard
on
so
uth
ern
Tan
zan
ian
co
ast
Photo: Alex Wynter/IFRC
Eq
ua
lly im
po
rta
nt,
th
rou
gh
“le
arn
ing
by
d
oin
g”
co
mm
un
itie
s re
co
gn
ize
th
eir
o
wn
ca
pa
cit
ies
an
d
ap
pro
ac
he
s fo
r m
an
ag
ing
ris
k. T
his
g
en
era
tes
a s
en
se
of
ow
ne
rsh
ip a
nd
e
mp
ow
erm
en
t,
inst
illin
g a
cu
ltu
re
of
pre
ve
nti
on
w
ith
in v
uln
era
ble
c
om
mu
nit
ies.
23
Ma
kin
g E
nd
s M
ee
t: H
ow
Co
mm
un
itie
s C
an
Use
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t R
esu
lts
Lau
ren
Au
gu
stin
eD
ire
cto
r, D
isas
ters
Ro
un
dta
ble
N
atio
nal
Aca
de
my
of
Sci
en
ces
To
da
y, t
ext
me
ssa
ge
s, t
we
ets
, sm
art
ph
on
e a
pp
s,
an
d
soc
ial
ne
two
rks,
n
ot
to
me
nti
on
2
4-h
ou
r c
ab
le
ne
ws
cy
cle
s a
nd
c
ou
ntl
ess
o
the
r m
ed
ia
pla
tfo
rms,
de
live
r in
form
ati
on
to
pe
op
le i
n t
he
cri
tic
al t
ime
s d
uri
ng
an
d a
fte
r a
dis
ast
er.
Th
ese
an
d o
the
r te
chn
olo
gic
al
inn
ov
atio
ns
in r
isk
ide
nti
fica
tio
n
and
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
adv
ance
th
e
rate
, qu
anti
ty, a
nd
may
be
ev
en
the
qu
alit
y o
f in
form
atio
n t
hat
is
tran
smit
ted
an
d r
ece
ive
d d
uri
ng
a
dis
aste
r.
Th
e “
Mak
ing
En
ds
Me
et:
Ho
w
Co
mm
un
itie
s C
an U
se R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
sult
s” s
ess
ion
, ho
ste
d
by
the
Dis
aste
rs R
ou
nd
tab
le (
DR
)
of
the
Nat
ion
al R
ese
arch
Co
un
cil o
f
the
U.S
. Nat
ion
al A
cad
em
ies,
po
sed
the
qu
est
ion
”H
ow
can
21
st c
en
tury
tech
no
log
ical
inn
ova
tio
ns
be
use
d in
the
pre
-dis
aste
r, d
uri
ng
dis
aste
r, a
nd
po
st-d
isas
ter
ph
ase
?” T
he
se
ssio
n
was
an
inte
ract
ive
dis
cuss
ion
wit
h
pan
elis
ts a
nd
ab
ou
t 5
0 p
arti
cip
ants
wh
o p
rob
ed
way
s to
sat
isfy
th
e
ne
ed
to
ge
t in
form
atio
n t
ran
smit
ted
,
rece
ive
d, a
nd
un
de
rsto
od
in w
ays
that
re
du
ce r
isk
to p
eo
ple
an
d
com
mu
nit
ies.
Photo: © Rockstarimages | Dreamstime.com
Th
e 9
0-m
inu
te s
ess
ion
was
div
ide
d
into
fo
ur
seg
me
nts
: (1
) b
rie
f o
pe
nin
g
stat
em
en
ts f
rom
eac
h o
f th
e in
vite
d
pan
elis
ts; (
2)
thre
e 2
0-m
inu
te
pan
el d
iscu
ssio
ns
on
pre
-, d
uri
ng
-,
and
po
st-e
ven
t d
isas
ter
ph
ase
s,
resp
ect
ive
ly; (
3)
amp
le t
ime
fo
r
qu
est
ion
s, a
nsw
ers
, an
d d
iscu
ssio
n
amo
ng
pan
elis
ts a
nd
par
tici
pan
ts;
and
(4
) cr
eat
ing
an
ag
en
da
for
acti
on
s th
at c
an a
dva
nce
pe
op
le,
org
aniz
atio
ns,
an
d c
om
mu
nit
ies
to r
ed
uce
th
eir
ris
k an
d b
e m
ore
resi
lien
t in
all
ph
ase
s o
f d
isas
ters
.
Th
e s
ess
ion
incl
ud
ed
fo
ur
pan
elis
ts,
An
a L
uci
a H
ill, D
isas
ters
Man
age
r,
Me
xico
Cit
y, M
exi
co; F
ran
tz
Ve
rella
, fo
rme
r M
inis
ter
of
Pu
blic
Wo
rks,
Po
rt-a
u-P
rin
ce, H
aiti
;
Dav
id R
op
eik
, Am
eri
can
jou
rnal
ist
and
co
nsu
ltan
t sp
eci
aliz
ing
in r
isk
com
mu
nic
atio
n a
nd
au
tho
r o
f “H
ow
Ris
ky I
s It
, Re
ally
?”; a
nd
Tim
oth
y
Tin
ker,
str
ate
gic
an
d t
ech
nic
al
com
mu
nic
ato
r, B
oo
z A
llen
Ham
ilto
n,
Was
hin
gto
n, D
C, U
.S. T
he
pan
elis
ts
bro
ug
ht
fort
h a
ran
ge
of
exp
ert
ise
that
incl
ud
ed
pe
rsp
ect
ive
s fr
om
the
me
dia
, pri
vat
e s
ect
or,
fe
de
ral
go
ve
rnm
en
t o
ffic
ials
in d
isas
ter
man
age
me
nt,
an
d p
ub
lic h
eal
th.
Pan
elis
ts a
nd
par
tici
pan
ts e
ng
age
d
in a
co
nv
ers
atio
n s
tru
ctu
red
aro
un
d
fou
r o
ve
rarc
hin
g q
ue
stio
ns
in t
he
thre
e p
has
es
of
dis
aste
rs, p
re,
du
rin
g, a
nd
po
st. T
he
qu
est
ion
s
we
re p
ose
d a
nd
dis
cuss
ed
in t
hre
e
20
-min
ute
pan
el s
eg
me
nts
. Th
e
qu
est
ion
s w
ere
:
Ho
w d
o p
eo
ple
be
hav
e
wh
en
th
ey
rece
ive
ris
k
info
rmat
ion
?
Wh
at is
th
e r
ole
of
soci
al n
etw
ork
ing
in
com
mu
nic
atin
g d
isas
ter
risk
info
rmat
ion
?
Ho
w d
o t
ech
no
log
ical
inn
ov
atio
ns
in n
atu
ral
haz
ard
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
he
lp r
ed
uce
hu
man
suff
eri
ng
?
Ho
w c
an t
ech
no
log
iog
ical
inn
ov
atio
ns
he
lp
com
mu
nit
ies
use
ris
k
info
rmat
ion
an
d b
eco
me
mo
re r
esi
lien
t?
Ms.
Hill
sp
oke
of t
he
imp
orta
nce
of
edu
cati
on in
th
e p
re-d
isas
ter
ph
ase.
Sh
e sa
id t
hat
ed
uca
tin
g p
eop
le w
ill
hel
p t
hem
mak
e “w
ise
dec
isio
ns”
.
In t
he
pre
-dis
aste
r p
has
e, it
is a
lso
imp
orta
nt
to p
ut
into
pla
ce e
arly
war
nin
g s
yste
ms.
On
e of
th
e ea
rly
war
nin
g s
yste
ms
that
Mex
ico
Cit
y
emp
loys
is a
mes
sag
e (S
MS
) to
ph
ones
wit
h a
dis
tin
ct s
oun
d in
th
e
mes
sag
e. T
he
sou
nd
th
at is
pla
yed
in t
he
mes
sag
e al
erts
loca
l peo
ple
that
th
e m
essa
ge
is im
por
tan
t an
d
that
it s
hou
ld b
e re
ad im
med
iate
ly.
Du
rin
g a
dis
aste
r, M
s. H
ill s
aid
it’s
imp
orta
nt
to m
ake
sure
th
at t
her
e
is a
pla
n in
pla
ce s
o d
isas
ters
are
han
dle
d a
pp
rop
riat
ely,
an
d e
mer
gen
cy
situ
atio
ns
are
elim
inat
ed, e
ven
if 2
1st
cen
tury
tec
hn
olog
y is
n’t
wor
kin
g. M
s. H
ill s
aid
th
at t
ools
like
Twit
ter
(tw
itp
ics)
can
be
use
ful,
bu
t
she
issu
ed a
cau
tion
, as
wel
l: th
e
qu
anti
ty o
f in
form
atio
n t
ran
smit
ted
via
soci
al n
etw
orki
ng
sit
es m
ay n
ot
be
of h
igh
qu
alit
y or
rel
iab
ility
. A
fter
dis
aste
rs, i
t is
imp
orta
nt
to u
tiliz
e
the
tech
nol
ogy
that
is a
vaila
ble
to
the
com
mu
nit
y, s
uch
as
cell
ph
ones
and
tel
evis
ion
s, t
o g
ath
er in
form
atio
n
or c
all f
or h
elp
. M
s. H
ill c
lose
d w
ith
an il
lust
rati
on o
f h
ow t
he
act
of
com
mu
nic
atin
g in
form
atio
n—
even
if it
’s d
one
effe
ctiv
ely—
is n
ot t
he
sam
e as
un
der
stan
din
g h
ow t
hat
1 2 3 4
23
22
Mak
ing
En
ds
Me
et
25
24
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mM
akin
g E
nd
s M
ee
t
Aft
er
the
pan
elis
ts m
ade
th
eir
stat
em
en
ts a
nd
pre
sen
tati
on
s,
par
tici
pan
ts w
ere
ask
ed
to
wri
te
do
wn
imp
ort
ant
acti
on
ite
ms
that
, bas
ed
on
th
eir
exp
eri
en
ces,
wo
uld
re
du
ce r
isk
to p
eo
ple
an
d
com
mu
nit
ies
in t
he
dif
fere
nt
ph
ase
s
of
dis
aste
r p
rep
are
dn
ess
, re
spo
nse
,
and
re
cov
ery
. W
hat
re
sult
ed
was
an a
ge
nd
a to
re
du
ce r
isk
to p
eo
ple
and
co
mm
un
itie
s. T
he
ide
as t
hat
par
tici
pan
ts c
on
trib
ute
d a
re a
s
follo
ws:
.
Pre
-Dis
ast
er
Ph
ase
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
su
gg
est
ed
tha
t e
me
rge
nc
y m
an
ag
ers
,
cit
ize
ns,
an
d g
ov
ern
me
nta
l
off
icia
ls c
ou
ld h
elp
bu
ild
resi
lien
ce
B
uild
co
llab
ora
tiv
e r
ela
tio
nsh
ips
at t
he
co
mm
un
ity
lev
el.
In
itia
te a
war
nin
g s
yste
m in
an
em
erg
en
cy s
imila
r to
th
e s
ire
n
ale
rt t
hat
Me
xico
use
s.
T
ho
se w
ith
ce
ll p
ho
ne
s sh
ou
ld
do
wn
load
ap
plic
atio
ns
like
“I’m
OK
,” a
nd
ne
w c
ell
ph
on
es
sho
uld
co
me
eq
uip
pe
d w
ith
th
e
app
licat
ion
. (T
he
ap
plic
atio
n
allo
ws
you
to
te
ll yo
ur
fam
ily
and
fri
en
ds
that
yo
u’r
e O
K in
a
dis
aste
r si
tuat
ion
).
Id
en
tify
co
mm
un
ity
lead
ers
and
en
gag
e t
he
m t
o p
arti
cip
ate
in d
eci
sio
n-m
akin
g p
roce
sse
s
by
pre
par
ing
co
mm
un
itie
s to
be
ab
le t
o id
en
tify
haz
ard
s an
d
de
ve
lop
an
d p
ract
ice
em
erg
en
cy
pla
ns.
E
ng
age
co
mm
un
ity
me
mb
ers
to b
e e
mp
ow
ere
d t
hro
ug
h
bu
ildin
g t
rust
an
d c
on
tro
l at
the
ind
ivid
ual
lev
el t
o le
ad t
o m
ore
com
mu
nit
y p
rep
are
dn
ess
.
S
up
po
rt t
he
de
ve
lop
me
nt
of
resi
lien
t so
cial
ne
two
rks
that
are
th
e f
ou
nd
atio
ns
for
resp
on
se e
ffo
rts.
W
he
n c
om
mu
nic
atin
g a
bo
ut
haz
ard
s an
d r
isks
, in
form
pe
op
le
abo
ut
wh
at a
ctio
ns
to t
ake
, b
ut
also
te
ll p
eo
ple
wh
at t
he
y m
ay
fee
l. M
ore
str
on
gly
co
nn
ect
ing
the
em
oti
on
al e
xpe
ctat
ion
s o
f
an e
me
rge
ncy
to
th
e a
ctio
ns
that
pe
op
le c
an t
ake
incr
eas
es
the
co
ntr
ol e
ach
pe
rso
n h
as in
risk
y si
tuat
ion
s.
Du
rin
g a
Dis
ast
er
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
su
gg
est
ed
the
fo
llow
ing
ke
y t
hin
gs
to b
uild
re
silie
nc
e o
f p
eo
ple
an
d c
om
mu
nit
ies
F
or
pe
op
le t
o h
ave
re
al,
ach
iev
able
th
ing
s to
do
, so
the
y fe
el t
hat
th
ey
hav
e s
om
e
con
tro
l.
F
or
em
erg
en
cy m
anag
ers
to
rece
ive
info
rmat
ion
fro
m t
he
dis
aste
r si
te, a
nd
fo
r e
me
rge
ncy
man
age
rs b
e e
qu
ipp
ed
to
rece
ive
info
rmat
ion
via
mo
bile
de
vic
es
that
hav
e s
oci
al
ne
two
rks
and
oth
er
app
licat
ion
s
en
able
d (
e.g
. pic
ture
mai
l/te
xt
me
ssag
ing
).
F
or
em
erg
en
cy m
anag
ers
an
d
civ
ic le
ade
rs t
o c
oo
rdin
ate
an
d
com
mu
nic
ate
wit
h c
itiz
en
s.
B
ott
om
-up
co
mm
un
icat
ion
and
no
t ju
st t
op
-do
wn
com
mu
nic
atio
n s
yste
ms.
W
ide
-sp
read
usa
ge
of
cell-
ph
on
e a
pp
licat
ion
s lik
e “
I’m
OK
.”
F
or
citi
zen
s to
be
ab
le t
o
com
mu
nic
ate
to
em
erg
en
cy
man
age
rs t
hro
ug
h t
ext
me
ssag
e, s
har
e v
ide
os,
an
d
pic
ture
s.
Po
st-D
isa
ste
r P
ha
se
Pa
rtic
ipa
nts
su
gg
est
ed
the
se k
ey
th
ing
s to
bu
ild
resi
lien
ce
of
pe
op
le
an
d c
om
mu
nit
ies
U
se t
he
dis
aste
r to
de
sig
n a
nd
secu
re s
trat
eg
ic in
ve
stm
en
t
in lo
ng
-te
rm in
fras
tru
ctu
re
con
stru
ctio
n.
E
val
uat
e le
sso
ns
fro
m t
he
rece
nt
dis
aste
r re
spo
nse
, an
d
bu
ild f
rom
th
ose
less
on
s m
ore
rob
ust
or
alte
rnat
ive
pla
ns.
D
esi
gn
an
d e
ng
age
sys
tem
s fo
r
adv
ance
dis
aste
r re
cov
ery
an
d
reb
alan
ce.
S
ecu
re r
eg
ion
al in
ve
stm
en
t in
risk
re
du
ctio
n t
o h
elp
pro
tect
agai
nst
fu
ture
dis
aste
rs.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Lau
ren
Au
gu
stin
e, D
ire
cto
r o
f
the
Dis
aste
rs R
ou
nd
tab
le a
t
the
Nat
ion
al A
cad
em
ies
in t
he
Div
isio
n o
n E
arth
an
d L
ife
Stu
die
s
and
th
e C
ou
ntr
y D
ire
cto
r o
f
the
Nat
ion
al A
cad
em
ies’
Afr
ican
Sci
en
ce A
cad
em
y D
ev
elo
pm
en
t
Init
iati
ve
(A
SA
DI)
Dav
id R
op
eik
, Pri
nci
pal
, Ro
pe
ik &
Ass
oci
ate
s
Tim
oth
y T
inke
r, S
en
ior
Ass
oci
ate
, Bo
oz
Alle
n H
amilt
on
An
a L
uci
a H
ill M
ayo
ral,
Dir
ect
or
Ge
ne
ral,
Dir
ecc
ión
Ge
ne
ral d
e
Pro
tecc
ión
Civ
il, S
ecr
eta
ría
de
Go
be
rnac
ión
(S
EG
OB
), M
éxi
co
Fra
ntz
Ve
rella
, En
gin
ee
r an
d
Eco
no
mis
t, D
anie
l Arb
ou
r an
d
Ass
oci
ate
s
info
rmat
ion
is r
ece
ive
d, n
or
is it
th
e
sam
e a
s u
nd
ers
tan
din
g w
hat
pe
op
le
will
do
wit
h t
he
info
rmat
ion
up
on
rece
ipt.
A s
tory
th
at M
s. H
ill s
har
ed
was
ab
ou
t an
ev
en
t th
at f
orc
ed
pe
op
le t
o e
vac
uat
e t
he
ir h
om
es.
Th
e e
vac
uat
ion
inst
ruct
ion
s w
ere
spe
cifi
c in
inst
ruct
ing
ev
acu
ee
s to
“tak
e o
nly
ne
cess
ary
ite
ms.
” O
ne
of
the
ev
acu
ee
s, a
wo
man
, bro
ug
ht
he
r w
ash
ing
mac
hin
e t
o t
he
sh
elt
er.
Wh
en
qu
est
ion
ed
ab
ou
t th
is a
s a
“ne
cess
ary
ite
m,”
sh
e r
ep
lied
th
at
the
mac
hin
e w
as n
ece
ssar
y to
he
r
live
liho
od
, an
d s
he
wo
uld
ne
ed
it
and
th
e w
ork
sh
e c
an d
o w
ith
it n
o
mat
ter
wh
ere
sh
e is
.
Fra
ntz
Ve
rella
sp
oke
of
reb
uild
ing
a m
ore
re
silie
nt
Hai
ti a
nd
sh
are
d
man
y st
ori
es
wit
h a
ud
ien
ce
me
mb
ers
. Du
rin
g t
he
pre
-dis
aste
r
ph
ase
, Mr.
Ve
rella
sai
d t
hat
it is
imp
ort
ant
for
pe
op
le t
o b
elie
ve
a
dis
aste
r is
em
ine
nt,
“if
yo
u b
elie
ve
,
you
will
do
wh
at is
ne
ed
ed
[to
pro
tect
yo
urs
elf
be
fore
a d
isas
ter
occ
urs
]”. H
e s
po
ke o
f th
e f
ailu
res
of
com
mo
n c
on
tro
l sys
tem
s d
uri
ng
dis
aste
rs, w
he
n r
oad
s ar
e b
lock
ed
,
com
mu
nic
atio
n s
yste
ms
are
do
wn
,
and
po
we
r is
ou
t. M
r. V
ere
lla t
old
ho
w d
uri
ng
th
e r
ece
nt
ear
thq
uak
e
in H
aiti
th
e H
aiti
an P
rim
e M
inis
ter
cou
ld n
ot
ge
t in
co
nta
ct w
ith
the
Pre
sid
en
t u
sin
g t
he
av
aila
ble
tech
no
log
y, s
o M
r. V
ere
lla h
ad
to d
riv
e b
y m
oto
rcyc
le t
o t
he
Pre
sid
en
t’s
ho
use
. Up
on
re
ach
ing
the
Pre
sid
en
t, M
r. V
ere
lla f
ou
nd
that
th
e P
resi
de
nt
had
be
en
try
ing
to g
et
in c
on
tact
wit
h t
he
Pri
me
Min
iste
r’s
he
ad-q
uar
ters
—th
is is
the
eq
uiv
ale
nt
of
the
U.N
. mili
tary
cen
tral
in H
aiti
—b
ut
had
be
en
un
succ
ess
ful.
So
th
e P
resi
de
nt
aske
d M
r. V
ere
lla t
o g
o t
o t
he
Min
iste
r’s
he
adq
uar
ters
to
se
e
wh
at t
he
sit
uat
ion
was
. On
ce M
r.
Ve
rella
re
ach
ed
th
e h
ead
qu
arte
rs,
he
fo
un
d t
hat
th
e b
uild
ing
had
colla
pse
d, d
est
royi
ng
all
of
the
Min
iste
r’s
con
tro
l sys
tem
s. F
rom
this
sto
ry a
nd
oth
ers
, Mr.
Ve
rella
shar
ed
th
ree
ke
y p
oin
ts:
S
yste
ms
for
red
uci
ng
dis
aste
rs
mu
st b
e o
rgan
ize
d o
n d
en
sity
con
ne
cte
d n
etw
ork
s in
ste
ad o
f
a h
iera
rch
al t
ree
be
cau
se if
on
e
link
fails
in a
hie
rarc
hal
tre
e, t
he
wh
ole
sys
tem
fai
ls. A
de
nsi
ty
con
ne
cte
d n
etw
ork
is t
wo
-way
com
mu
nic
atio
n—
no
t ju
st o
utp
ut
—th
at f
acili
tate
s an
on
-go
ing
con
ve
rsat
ion
.
T
he
re is
a n
ee
d f
or
em
erg
en
cy
loca
tio
ns
ou
tsid
e o
f d
isas
ter
thre
ate
ne
d a
reas
wit
h
po
we
r, e
ne
rgy
sou
rce
s, a
nd
com
mu
nic
atio
n.
C
om
mu
nic
atio
ns
and
th
eir
infr
astr
uct
ure
s m
ust
be
red
un
dan
t an
d p
eo
ple
wh
o
are
no
rmal
ly n
ot
incl
ud
ed
in
com
mu
nic
atio
ns—
you
th g
rou
p
lead
ers
, re
ligio
us
lead
ers
, wo
me
n
in m
arke
ts—
mu
st b
e in
clu
de
d
in d
isas
ter
com
mu
nic
atio
n a
nd
pro
toco
ls.
Au
tho
r an
d r
isk
com
mu
nic
atio
n
con
sult
ant
Dav
id R
op
eik
sp
oke
abo
ut
ho
w t
he
bra
in w
ork
s in
th
e
dif
fere
nt
ph
ase
s o
f d
isas
ters
. Mr.
Ro
pe
ik s
aid
it w
as im
po
rtan
t in
a
pre
-dis
aste
r p
eri
od
fo
r au
tho
riti
es
to s
pe
ak a
bo
ut
em
oti
on
s th
at m
ay
aris
e w
he
n a
dis
aste
r st
rike
s, s
o
pe
op
le c
an e
xpe
ct c
ert
ain
fe
elin
gs
and
be
be
tte
r p
rep
are
d t
o r
esp
on
d
in e
me
rge
ncy
or
life
-th
reat
en
ing
situ
atio
ns.
Th
e t
ran
smis
sio
n o
f
stre
ss-r
ela
ted
ne
uro
-ch
em
ical
s in
the
bra
in c
an s
up
ers
ed
e lo
gic
an
d
reas
on
, so
a r
elia
nce
on
te
chn
olo
gy
or
a d
ev
ice
will
wo
rk b
est
wh
en
th
e
tech
no
log
y is
fam
iliar
or
has
be
en
use
d o
r p
ract
ice
d b
efo
re t
he
ris
ky
situ
atio
n o
ccu
rs.
Tim
oth
y T
inke
r, a
str
ate
gic
an
d
tech
nic
al c
om
mu
nic
ato
r, s
aid
eve
ryo
ne
in a
n e
nte
rpri
se n
ee
ds
to
be
re
ady
for
a d
isas
ter,
un
de
rsta
nd
the
ro
le e
ach
pe
rso
n w
ill p
lay,
an
d
bu
ild r
esi
lien
ce. H
e e
mp
has
ize
d t
he
ne
ed
fo
r in
div
idu
als
to b
e v
igila
nt
by
be
ing
in a
“sk
ille
d s
tate
of
min
d.”
He
sai
d t
hat
pe
op
le m
ust
be
ab
le
to d
eci
ph
er
if t
he
th
reat
is r
eal
or
pe
rce
ive
d a
nd
th
en
act
acc
ord
ing
ly.
Mr.
Tin
ker
sho
we
d e
xce
rpts
fro
m
vid
eo
s an
d a
ske
d a
ud
ien
ce m
em
be
rs
wh
at t
he
y w
ou
ld d
o in
dif
fere
nt
situ
atio
ns.
On
e o
f th
e n
ew
way
s to
shar
e d
isas
ter
info
rmat
ion
is t
he
“cit
ize
n r
ep
ort
er”
. Th
e in
div
idu
al a
t
the
sce
ne
co
nd
uct
s a
sce
ne
an
alys
is,
may
inte
rvie
w p
eo
ple
, gat
he
r
info
rmat
ion
an
d p
ho
tos,
an
d w
rite
a p
iece
on
wh
at h
e o
r sh
e s
aw, o
r
shar
e a
clip
of
the
dis
aste
r sc
en
e.
Mr.
Tin
ker
be
lieve
s th
at t
he
re is
an
op
po
rtu
nit
y to
ad
apt
to t
he
se n
ew
and
inn
ova
tive
way
s to
co
mm
un
icat
e
and
use
ne
w t
ech
no
log
ies.
24
loca
thre
po
w
com
Co
m
infr
a
red
un
are
n
com
m
lead
er
in m
ar
in d
isa
pro
toc
I’m
oka
y!
27
26
So
me
pe
op
le s
urv
eye
d b
elie
ved
th
at
the
“le
vee
s w
ere
mad
e t
o p
rote
ct
us
for
10
0 y
ear
s,”
and
th
at “
the
last
flo
od
cam
e in
19
50
; th
e n
ext
on
e w
ill b
e in
20
50
.” E
ven
th
ou
gh
the
ir r
isk
is c
on
sid
era
bly
hig
he
r,
60
% h
ad n
eve
r b
ee
n in
form
ed
abo
ut
flo
od
ris
k, 6
0%
rar
ely
he
ard
abo
ut
flo
od
ing
, an
d 6
% h
ad e
ver
spo
ken
wit
h a
re
al e
stat
e a
ge
nt
abo
ut
the
ris
k. O
nly
20
% h
ad
flo
od
insu
ran
ce, a
nd
on
ly 1
3%
to
ok
pre
cau
tio
nar
y m
eas
ure
s (s
uch
as
hav
ing
an
eva
cuat
ion
pla
n, p
utt
ing
the
ir v
alu
able
s o
n t
he
se
con
d f
loo
r,
and
hav
ing
a d
isas
ter
sup
ply
kit
).
Mo
st b
elie
ved
th
at t
he
y w
ou
ld n
ot
be
allo
we
d t
o li
ve b
eh
ind
a le
vee
if
it w
ere
no
t sa
fe. J
ess
ica
ide
nti
fie
d
the
ne
ed
ed
ne
xt s
tep
s in
re
sear
ch
as g
ain
ing
a b
ett
er
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
“pro
tect
ion
mo
tiva
tio
n”—
wh
at
will
mo
tiva
te p
eo
ple
to
tak
e
pro
tect
ive
act
ion
in t
his
sit
uat
ion
of
low
pro
bab
ility
bu
t p
ote
nti
ally
cata
stro
ph
ic r
isk.
Th
e f
inal
pre
sen
tati
on
at
the
pan
el w
as g
ive
n b
y To
dd
Kh
oze
in
fro
m S
eco
nd
Mu
se, t
he
co
mp
any
that
org
aniz
ed
th
e in
tera
ctiv
e
We
bsi
te f
or
the
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k co
nfe
ren
ce.
As
illu
stra
ted
by
the
slid
e f
rom
To
dd
’s p
rese
nta
tio
n,
ne
w m
ed
ia li
ke T
wit
ter
are
oft
en
no
t ta
ken
se
rio
usl
y as
to
ols
fo
r
soci
al c
han
ge
. B
ut
he
de
scri
be
d
on
e v
ery
cle
ar il
lust
rati
on
of
wh
at
a p
ow
erf
ul t
oo
l it
can
be
. Act
or
and
ce
leb
rity
Ash
ton
Ku
tch
er
chal
len
ge
d a
nd
be
at C
NN
to
en
list
on
e m
illio
n f
ollo
we
rs o
n t
he
so
cial
me
dia
pla
tfo
rm T
wit
ter
in A
pri
l of
this
ye
ar. T
o c
ele
bra
te h
is v
icto
ry,
Ku
tch
er
is s
en
din
g 1
0,0
00
mo
squ
ito
ne
ts t
o h
elp
th
e o
rgan
izat
ion
Mal
aria
No
Mo
re f
igh
t m
alar
ia in
Afr
ica,
wh
ich
will
pro
tect
20
,00
0
child
ren
fro
m t
his
dis
eas
e.
Ku
tch
er
furt
he
r h
elp
ed
Mal
aria
No
Mo
re
rais
e a
war
en
ess
fo
r W
orl
d M
alar
ia
Day
on
Ap
ril 2
5th
by
gal
van
izin
g h
is
Twit
ter
arm
y to
sp
read
th
e w
ord
abo
ut
ho
w t
he
wo
rld
is f
igh
tin
g—
and
win
nin
g—
the
bat
tle
ag
ain
st t
he
dis
eas
e. A
s th
is T
wit
ter
exp
eri
me
nt
sho
ws,
ne
w m
ed
ia c
an e
nab
le
mill
ion
s o
f in
div
idu
als
to b
e p
art
of
mak
ing
sw
ee
pin
g, g
lob
al s
oci
al
chan
ge
s an
d s
avin
g li
ve
s.
In r
efle
ctin
g o
n m
y ow
n e
xper
ien
ce
wor
kin
g o
n r
isk
com
mu
nic
atio
n f
or
avia
n in
flu
enza
an
d H
1N
1, a
rec
ent
revi
ew o
f th
e g
lob
al e
ffor
t to
red
uce
the
imp
act
of H
1N
1 (“
Th
e P
rice
of
Poo
r P
and
emic
Com
mu
nic
atio
n,”
Th
omas
Ab
rah
am, B
MJ
20
10
;
34
0:c
29
52
) bro
ug
ht
hom
e so
me
of
the
sam
e le
sson
s th
at o
ur
pan
elis
ts
pre
sen
ted
. T
he
revi
ew c
oncl
ud
ed:
“Th
e p
rin
cip
al f
ailu
re w
as t
hat
inst
ead
of u
sin
g t
he
tool
s an
d p
rin
cip
les
of
risk
com
mu
nic
atio
n t
o cr
eate
pu
blic
un
der
stan
din
g o
f th
e ri
sks
pos
ed b
y a
pan
dem
ic, e
xper
ts a
nd
pol
icy
mak
ers
use
d a
not
her
for
m o
f co
mm
un
icat
ion
,
advo
cacy
, wh
ich
is in
ten
ded
not
so
mu
ch t
o cr
eate
un
der
stan
din
g b
ut
to
per
suad
e th
e p
ub
lic t
o ta
ke c
erta
in
acti
ons.
”
Th
e a
rtic
le p
oin
ted
ou
t th
at
com
mu
nic
atio
n m
ess
agin
g
focu
sed
on
th
e s
eve
re h
um
an a
nd
eco
no
mic
co
sts
that
co
uld
re
sult
fro
m a
pan
de
mic
th
at c
ou
ld b
e a
cata
stro
ph
ic e
ven
t. W
he
n t
he
pan
de
mic
tu
rne
d o
ut
to b
e m
uch
mild
er
than
exp
ect
ed
, th
e g
ap
be
twe
en
re
alit
y an
d p
red
icti
on
pro
du
ced
a p
ub
lic b
ackl
ash
, wit
h
pe
op
le q
ue
stio
nin
g t
he
co
mp
ete
nce
and
mo
tiva
tio
n o
f p
ub
lic h
eal
th
age
nci
es
and
a s
usp
icio
n o
f th
e
advi
ce c
om
ing
fro
m t
he
m.
“Ris
k
com
mu
nic
atio
n t
o c
reat
e a
pu
blic
dia
log
ue
on
th
e r
isks
of
a p
and
em
ic,
rath
er
than
ad
voca
cy b
ase
d o
n
app
eal
s to
fe
ar, w
ou
ld h
ave
be
en
th
e
corr
ect
ap
pro
ach
,” a
cco
rdin
g t
o t
he
auth
or.
Ab
rah
am’s
co
ncl
usi
on
, ve
ry
con
sist
en
t w
ith
Dav
id R
op
eik
’s
pe
rsp
ect
ive
, pro
vid
es
an a
pt
sum
mar
y o
f o
ne
of
the
mai
n
less
on
s to
tak
e a
way
fro
m o
ur
dis
cuss
ion
of
risk
pe
rce
pti
on
and
ris
k co
mm
un
icat
ion
. R
isk
com
mu
nic
atio
n is
“ab
ou
t b
uild
ing
a sh
are
d u
nd
ers
tan
din
g w
ith
the
pu
blic
, ab
ou
t th
e n
atu
re
of
a ri
sk a
nd
th
e m
eas
ure
s
ne
ed
ed
to
re
spo
nd
to
it t
hro
ug
h
dia
log
ue
. It
is n
ot
abo
ut
tryi
ng
to p
ers
uad
e p
eo
ple
…th
e a
im o
f
risk
co
mm
un
icat
ion
is n
ot
for
the
aud
ien
ce t
o a
cce
pt
the
vie
ws
or
arg
um
en
ts o
f th
e c
om
mu
nic
ato
r,
bu
t to
rai
se t
he
lev
el o
f
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
so
th
at a
ll th
ose
wh
o a
re in
vo
lve
d a
re a
de
qu
ate
ly
info
rme
d w
ith
in t
he
lim
its
of
avai
lab
le in
form
atio
n.”
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Dav
id R
op
eik
, Har
var
d U
niv
ers
ity
and
Pri
nci
pal
at
Ro
pe
ik &
Ass
oci
ate
s
Je
ssic
a L
ud
y, R
ese
arch
Sp
eci
alis
t, U
niv
ers
ity
of
Cal
ifo
rnia
/Be
rke
ley
Do
ug
las
Sto
rey,
Ass
oci
ate
Dir
ect
or,
Jo
hn
s H
op
kin
s C
en
ter
for
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
Pro
gra
ms
Tod
d K
ho
zein
, Co
-fo
un
de
r o
f
Se
con
dM
use
We
are
ess
en
tia
lly
ha
rdw
ire
d t
o u
se
em
oti
on
be
fore
fa
ct
in r
esp
on
din
g t
o a
ris
k
situ
ati
on
.
RIS
KM
ark
Ras
mu
son
V
ice
Pre
sid
en
t an
d D
ire
cto
r C
en
ter
for
Glo
bal
He
alth
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
an
d M
arke
tin
g, A
cad
em
y fo
r E
du
cati
on
al
De
ve
lop
me
nt
(AE
D)
Pe
rce
pti
on
an
d
Co
mm
un
ica
tio
n
Ris
k P
erc
ep
tio
n a
nd
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
Dav
id R
op
eik
’s p
rese
nta
tio
n o
n
the
Psy
cho
log
y o
f R
isk
be
gan
by
exp
lori
ng
th
e a
ud
ien
ce’s
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
ho
w t
o d
efi
ne
risk
. H
is e
xch
ang
e w
ith
au
die
nce
me
mb
ers
hig
hlig
hte
d t
wo
asp
ect
s
of
risk
pe
rce
pti
on
: ri
sk in
volv
es
the
pro
bab
ility
or
chan
ce t
hat
so
me
thin
g
bad
will
hap
pe
n, a
nd
ris
k is
alw
ays
sub
ject
ive
; wh
at I
pe
rce
ive
as
bad
may
no
t b
e t
he
sam
e f
or
oth
ers
.
He
th
en
gav
e a
co
mp
elli
ng
po
rtra
yal o
f h
ow
th
e a
rch
ite
ctu
re
and
ch
em
istr
y o
f th
e h
um
an b
rain
affe
ct o
ur
pe
rce
pti
on
of
risk
. W
e
are
ess
en
tial
ly h
ard
wir
ed
to
use
em
oti
on
be
fore
fac
t in
re
spo
nd
ing
to
a ri
sk s
itu
atio
n.
Str
ess
ful s
itu
atio
ns
trig
ge
r o
ur
“fig
ht
or
flig
ht”
re
spo
nse
,
he
igh
ten
ing
th
e in
flu
en
ce o
f
inst
inct
ive
an
d e
mo
tio
nal
re
spo
nse
s,
com
par
ed
to
th
e u
se o
f re
aso
n.
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
th
e p
sych
olo
gy
of
risk
will
he
lp m
ake
co
mm
un
icat
ion
pra
ctit
ion
ers
mo
re a
de
pt
at r
isk
com
mu
nic
atio
n, w
hic
h D
avid
de
fin
ed
as:
“Act
ion
s, w
ord
s, a
nd
oth
er
inte
ract
ion
s th
at in
corp
ora
te a
n
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
and
re
spe
ct f
or
the
aff
ect
ive
pe
rce
pti
on
s o
f th
e
info
rmat
ion
re
cip
ien
ts, i
nte
nd
ed
to
he
lp p
eo
ple
mak
e m
ore
info
rme
d
de
cisi
on
s ab
ou
t th
reat
s to
th
eir
he
alth
an
d s
afe
ty.”
Je
ssic
a L
ud
y, s
pe
akin
g a
bo
ut
pu
blic
pe
rce
pti
on
s o
f fl
oo
d r
isk
in t
he
Un
ite
d S
tate
s, p
rese
nte
d
som
e f
asci
nat
ing
dat
a fr
om
a st
ud
y co
nd
uct
ed
by
UC
/
Be
rke
ley
on
pe
rce
pti
on
s o
f ri
sk
amo
ng
pe
op
le li
vin
g b
eh
ind
flo
od
leve
es
in C
alif
orn
ia.
In t
he
fir
st
inst
ance
, th
ere
was
wid
esp
read
mis
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
ab
ou
t th
e
com
mo
nly
use
d t
erm
s “1
00
ye
ar
leve
es”
an
d “
10
0-y
ear
flo
od
,” w
hic
h
refe
rs t
o t
he
1%
ris
k o
f a
flo
od
in
any
giv
en
ye
ar.
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Bla
ck S
wan
s an
d
Wh
ite
Wh
ale
sK
en
ne
th L
. Ve
rosu
bD
ep
artm
en
t o
f G
eo
log
yU
niv
ers
ity
of
Cal
ifo
rnia
Th
e g
oa
l o
f th
is s
ess
ion
wa
s to
use
lo
w-p
rob
ab
ility
ev
en
ts t
ha
t h
av
e t
he
ca
pa
bili
ty o
f
wre
ak
ing
gre
at
ha
vo
c o
n h
um
an
po
pu
lati
on
s to
he
lp u
s u
nd
ers
tan
d s
imila
r e
ve
nts
th
at
oc
cu
r m
ore
fre
qu
en
tly.
In
th
e o
nlin
e d
isc
uss
ion
th
at
led
up
to
th
e s
ess
ion
an
d i
n t
he
sess
ion
itse
lf, w
e f
ou
nd
it u
sefu
l to
fra
me
th
e d
isc
uss
ion
in t
erm
s o
f “b
lac
k s
wa
ns”
an
d
“wh
ite
wh
ale
s.”
In E
uro
pe
an s
oci
ety
, as
far
bac
k as
Ro
man
tim
es,
the
bla
ck s
wan
was
sym
bo
lic o
f so
me
thin
g t
hat
cou
ld n
ot
po
ssib
ly e
xist
. T
he
n in
16
97
, th
e D
utc
h
exp
lore
r W
ille
m d
e V
lam
ing
h d
isco
ve
red
bla
ck s
wan
s
in A
ust
ralia
, an
d t
he
ce
rtai
nty
ab
ou
t th
eir
no
n-
exi
ste
nce
cam
e t
o a
n a
bru
pt
en
d.
Kn
ow
led
ge
of
the
exi
ste
nce
of
gre
at w
hit
e w
hal
es
(à la
Mo
by
Dic
k)
pro
bab
ly g
oe
s b
ack
to t
he
tim
e h
um
ans
firs
t st
arte
d
ve
ntu
rin
g o
ut
into
th
e o
pe
n o
cean
, bu
t w
hit
e w
hal
es
hav
e a
lway
s b
ee
n r
eco
gn
ize
d a
s b
ein
g e
xtre
me
ly r
are
.
Th
us,
bla
ck s
wan
s ca
n b
e u
sed
as
a m
eta
ph
or
for
ev
en
ts t
hat
rad
ical
ly c
han
ge
th
e w
ay w
e lo
ok
at t
he
wo
rld
wh
ile w
hit
e w
hal
es
can
be
use
d a
s a
me
tap
ho
r
for
ve
ry lo
w p
rob
abili
ty e
ve
nts
th
at w
e k
no
w e
xist
.
On
e o
f th
e p
oin
ts t
hat
em
erg
ed
fro
m t
he
on
line
dis
cuss
ion
was
th
at t
he
bo
un
dar
y b
etw
ee
n b
lack
swan
s an
d w
hit
e w
hal
es
was
no
t as
cle
ar a
s it
ori
gin
ally
ap
pe
are
d.
Fo
r e
xam
ple
, th
e d
est
ruct
ion
of
the
Tw
in T
ow
ers
of
the
Wo
rld
Tra
de
Ce
nte
r o
n
Se
pte
mb
er
11
, 20
01
, is
pro
bab
ly t
hat
fir
st e
xam
ple
that
co
me
s to
min
d a
s a
bla
ck s
wan
ev
en
t. A
nd
ye
t,
var
iou
s p
recu
rso
ry e
ve
nts
, fro
m s
uic
ide
by
pla
ne
to t
he
te
rro
rist
tak
e-o
ve
r o
f ai
rcra
ft h
ad a
lre
ady
occ
urr
ed
an
d c
ou
ld h
ave
be
en
use
d t
o d
ev
elo
p a
sce
nar
io v
ery
mu
ch li
ke t
he
on
e t
hat
to
ok
pla
ce a
t
gro
un
d z
ero
. S
o f
rom
th
at p
ers
pe
ctiv
e p
erh
aps
9/1
1
cou
ld b
e v
iew
ed
as
eit
he
r a
bla
ck s
wan
or
a w
hit
e
wh
ale
ev
en
t. S
imila
rly,
tw
o a
pp
are
ntl
y b
lack
sw
an
ev
en
ts t
hat
occ
urr
ed
du
rin
g t
he
co
urs
e o
f th
e o
n-l
ine
dis
cuss
ion
, th
e d
isru
pti
on
of
air
traf
fic
thro
ug
ho
ut
Eu
rop
e d
ue
to
th
e e
rup
tio
n o
f th
e E
yjaf
jalla
joku
ll
vo
lcan
o in
Ice
lan
d (
bac
kgro
un
d p
ho
to)
and
th
e
oil-
dri
llin
g r
ig e
xplo
sio
n a
nd
su
bse
qu
en
t m
assi
ve
oil
spill
in t
he
Gu
lf o
f M
exi
co, c
ame
as
no
su
rpri
se t
o a
mo
de
rate
ly la
rge
se
gm
en
t o
f b
oth
th
e e
arth
sci
en
ce
and
ge
ote
chn
ical
en
gin
ee
rin
g c
om
mu
nit
ies.
Photo: © Photos.com
29
28
31
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mB
lack
Sw
ans
and
Wh
ite
Wh
ale
s
atm
osp
he
ric
con
dit
ion
s in
Eu
rop
e,
that
bu
rie
d e
nti
re c
itie
s u
nd
er
mu
dsl
ide
s in
So
uth
Am
eri
can
, th
at
“bu
rpe
d”
ou
t a
thic
k la
yer
of
carb
on
dio
xid
e w
hic
h k
ille
d p
eo
ple
an
d
anim
als,
bu
t n
ot
bir
ds,
in A
fric
a, a
nd
that
pro
du
ced
glo
bal
co
olin
g w
hic
h
led
to
fam
ine
in m
any
par
ts o
f th
e
wo
rld
. P
rep
arin
g f
or
all o
f th
ese
or
ev
en
a s
ub
set
of
the
m is
a v
ery
dif
ficu
lt c
hal
len
ge
.
in o
ur
abili
ty t
o u
nd
ers
tan
d a
nd
resp
on
d t
o lo
w-p
rob
abili
ty e
ve
nts
.
On
th
e m
ath
em
atic
al/s
tati
stic
al
en
d o
f th
e s
cale
is t
he
ne
ed
fo
r
be
tte
r m
eth
od
s fo
r e
stim
atin
g
the
pro
bab
iliti
es
for
the
se e
ve
nts
,
incl
ud
ing
th
e a
bili
ty t
o w
ork
wit
h f
at-t
aile
d d
istr
ibu
tio
ns
and
inte
rde
pe
nd
en
t p
he
no
me
na.
We
also
ne
ed
ne
w t
oo
ls t
hat
allo
w u
s to
de
al w
ith
hig
he
r le
ve
ls o
f co
mp
lexi
ty
such
as
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g f
or
war
nin
gs
and
re
po
rtin
g, a
nd
th
at a
llow
us
to
be
tte
r u
nd
ers
tan
d a
nd
ev
alu
ate
the
nat
ure
of
thre
ats,
su
ch a
s
vis
ual
izat
ion
te
chn
iqu
es.
An
d f
inal
ly it
is im
po
rtan
t to
un
de
rsta
nd
th
at w
e c
an’t
ide
nti
fy
and
de
fen
d a
gai
nst
ev
ery
bla
ck
swan
imag
inab
le.
We
ne
ed
to
fo
cus
on
wh
at m
igh
t b
e c
alle
d e
xist
en
tial
Pe
op
le’s
pe
rce
pti
on
of
the
re
lati
ve
thre
at p
ose
d b
y d
iffe
ren
t ty
pe
s o
f
risk
ad
ds
to t
he
ch
alle
ng
e o
f d
eal
ing
wit
h b
lack
sw
ans
and
wh
ite
wh
ale
s.
Th
ese
pe
rce
pti
on
s ar
e o
fte
n a
t
var
ian
ce w
ith
eit
he
r th
e a
ctu
al
pro
bab
iliti
es
of
occ
urr
en
ce a
nd
/or
mag
nit
ud
es
of
the
imp
acts
.
Th
e s
ola
r m
axim
um
sto
ry a
lso
de
mo
nst
rate
s h
ow
imp
rov
em
en
ts
in t
ech
no
log
y ca
n in
cre
ase
th
e
imp
act
of
a p
arti
cula
r e
ve
nt.
Oth
er
fact
ors
th
at c
an in
flu
en
ce
the
imp
act
are
loca
tio
n (
If a
mas
siv
e e
arth
qu
ake
occ
urs
in t
he
mid
dle
of
the
larg
ely
un
inh
abit
ed
Takl
imak
an D
ese
rt in
Ch
ina,
is it
a
crit
ical
ev
en
t?)
and
th
e in
ade
qu
acy
of
the
his
tori
c re
cord
(Is
th
e
pe
rce
pti
on
th
at t
he
ear
thq
uak
e
risk
in W
ash
ing
ton
, DC
, is
low
,
corr
ect
or
sim
ply
th
e r
esu
lt o
f an
ano
mal
ou
s p
eri
od
of
low
se
ism
ic
acti
vit
y o
ve
r th
e p
ast
30
0 y
ear
s?)
Th
ese
var
iou
s e
xam
ple
s h
igh
ligh
t
som
e o
f th
e g
aps
and
sh
ort
falls
and
wit
h t
hre
ats
that
re
pre
sen
t a
con
tin
uo
us
spe
ctru
m o
f th
reat
s,
rath
er
than
dis
tin
ct p
he
no
me
na.
We
als
o n
ee
d t
o d
ev
elo
p
org
aniz
atio
nal
str
uct
ure
s th
at c
an
avo
id t
he
te
mp
tati
on
to
fo
cus
on
en
dle
ssly
ch
asin
g t
he
pre
vio
us
bla
ck
swan
an
d f
ocu
s, in
ste
ad, o
n u
sin
g
pas
t e
xpe
rie
nce
to
de
ve
lop
ad
apti
ve
stra
teg
ies
for
de
alin
g w
ith
an
arr
ay
of
futu
re b
lack
sw
ans.
We
ne
ed
to
lear
n h
ow
to
mak
e r
atio
nal
ch
oic
es
be
twe
en
dif
fere
nt
typ
es
of
risk
s,
bas
ed
on
pro
bab
ility
an
d im
pac
t,
rath
er
than
on
me
dia
att
en
tio
n
and
pu
blic
pe
rce
pti
on
s. A
nd
we
ne
ed
to
lear
n h
ow
to
tra
nsf
er
that
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
—re
ach
ed
th
rou
gh
en
gag
em
en
t o
f al
l th
e s
take
ho
lde
rs
—to
th
e d
eci
sio
n-m
ake
rs w
ho
ult
imat
ely
ap
pro
ve
pu
blic
po
licy
and
set
fun
din
g le
ve
ls.
On
th
e p
osi
tiv
e s
ide
, th
ere
are
ne
w
app
roac
he
s th
at c
an b
e u
sed
to
he
lp u
s id
en
tify
an
d e
val
uat
e r
isks
,
thre
ats
as o
pp
ose
d t
o g
ard
en
var
iety
th
reat
s. B
ut
we
can
ne
ve
r
anti
cip
ate
ev
ery
ris
k, e
ve
ry b
lack
swan
, so
th
e b
est
str
ate
gy
mig
ht
we
ll b
e t
o le
arn
ho
w t
o m
anag
e r
isk
ge
ne
rica
lly t
hro
ug
h a
co
mb
inat
ion
of
pre
par
ed
ne
ss, m
on
ito
rin
g, a
nd
vig
ilan
ce.
If a
mas
siv
e e
arth
qu
ake
occ
urs
in t
he
mid
dle
of
the
larg
ely
un
inh
abit
ed
Ta
klim
akan
De
sert
in C
hin
a, is
it a
cri
tica
l ev
en
t? I
s th
e p
erc
ep
tio
n c
orr
ect
th
at t
he
ear
thq
uak
e r
isk
in W
ash
ing
ton
, DC
is lo
w, o
r si
mp
ly t
he
re
sult
of
an
ano
mal
ou
s p
eri
od
of
low
se
ism
ic a
ctiv
ity
ov
er
the
pas
t 3
00
ye
ars?
Th
at r
aise
s th
e q
ue
stio
n o
f w
he
the
r
in t
his
ag
e o
f al
mo
st u
nlim
ite
d
acce
ss t
o k
no
wle
dg
e a
nd
un
limit
ed
dis
sem
inat
ion
of
ne
ws
the
re is
an
y
ev
en
t, n
atu
ral o
r h
um
an-m
ade
, th
at
som
e c
red
ible
pe
rso
n s
om
ew
he
re
has
no
t an
tici
pat
ed
. T
he
tri
ck in
term
s o
f u
nd
ers
tan
din
g r
isk
is t
he
n
no
t so
mu
ch t
o id
en
tify
po
ssib
le
bla
ck s
wan
ev
en
ts a
s to
de
term
ine
the
re
lati
ve
imp
ort
ance
th
at w
e
sho
uld
pla
ce o
n a
n a
rray
of
the
m.
On
e a
spe
ct o
f d
eal
ing
wit
h t
his
is
to f
ind
way
s to
cal
cula
te c
orr
ect
ly
the
pro
bab
ility
of
occ
urr
en
ce o
f
par
ticu
lar
ev
en
ts.
Ho
we
ve
r, d
eal
ing
wit
h e
ith
er
nat
ure
itse
lf (
in t
he
cas
e
of
nat
ura
l dis
aste
rs)
or
wit
h h
um
an
nat
ure
(in
th
e c
ase
of
acci
de
nts
and
att
acks
) d
oe
s n
ot
len
d it
self
to
sim
ple
pro
bab
ility
cal
cula
tio
ns.
Co
mp
ou
nd
ing
th
is p
rob
lem
is t
he
fact
th
at e
ven
if w
e c
an b
uild
a
stat
isti
cal m
od
el f
or
a se
t o
f b
lack
-
swan
or
wh
ite
-wh
ale
eve
nts
, th
e
dis
trib
uti
on
may
be
fat
-tai
led
, rat
he
r
than
no
rmal
or
Gau
ssia
n.
Fat
-tai
led
me
ans
that
low
-pro
bab
ility
eve
nts
can
hav
e im
pac
ts t
hat
are
mu
ch
hig
he
r th
an o
ne
oth
erw
ise
wo
uld
exp
ect
. F
or
exa
mp
le, p
eo
ple
in t
he
95
th p
erc
en
tile
of
he
igh
t ar
e o
nly
slig
htl
y ta
ller
than
pe
op
le in
th
e 9
0th
pe
rce
nti
le, w
he
reas
hu
rric
ane
s in
th
e
95
th p
erc
en
tile
can
be
tw
o o
r th
ree
tim
es
mo
re d
eva
stat
ing
th
an t
ho
se
in t
he
90
th p
erc
en
tile
. D
eal
ing
wit
h
fat-
taile
d d
istr
ibu
tio
ns
stat
isti
cally
is f
ar m
ore
dif
ficu
lt a
nd
far
less
un
de
rsto
od
th
an d
eal
ing
wit
h n
orm
al
dis
trib
uti
on
s. I
n a
dd
itio
n, a
pp
are
ntl
y
ind
ep
en
de
nt
low
pro
bab
ility
eve
nts
can
act
ual
ly b
e c
orr
ela
ted
, as
wh
en
very
he
avy
rain
fall
pro
du
ces
bo
th
flo
od
ing
an
d h
igh
win
ds.
Be
yon
d t
he
mat
he
mat
ical
issu
es
of
de
alin
g w
ith
bla
ck s
wan
s o
r
wh
ite
wh
ale
s is
th
e p
rob
lem
of
ge
ttin
g o
rgan
izat
ion
s to
re
spo
nd
to t
he
ap
pro
pri
ate
ris
ks a
nd
at
the
ap
pro
pri
ate
lev
el.
Man
y
org
aniz
atio
ns
are
ill-
con
fig
ure
d t
o
do
th
is.
Oft
en
th
e b
ure
aucr
atic
resp
on
se t
o a
bla
ck-s
wan
ev
en
t
that
has
occ
urr
ed
is t
o d
ev
elo
p
ela
bo
rate
ru
les
and
pro
ced
ure
for
de
alin
g w
ith
th
e p
ast
ev
en
t
rath
er
than
to
use
th
at e
ve
nt
to
de
ve
lop
a f
lexi
ble
an
d a
dap
tiv
e
resp
on
se t
hat
will
wo
rk w
ith
oth
er,
som
ew
hat
dif
fere
nt
bla
ck-s
wan
ev
en
ts.
Th
e m
ore
bu
reau
crat
ic
an o
rgan
izat
ion
, th
e m
ore
like
ly
it is
th
at m
ess
en
ge
rs a
re ig
no
red
or
ev
en
pu
nis
he
d, a
nd
th
e le
ss
able
th
e o
rgan
izat
ion
will
be
to
resp
on
d e
ffe
ctiv
ely
. O
n t
he
oth
er
han
d, o
rgan
izat
ion
s th
at h
ave
a
ge
ne
rati
ve
saf
ety
cu
ltu
re a
re o
pe
n
to s
ign
s o
f tr
ou
ble
, en
cou
rag
e
me
sse
ng
ers
, an
d a
re a
ble
to
resp
on
d e
ffe
ctiv
ely
.
Th
e c
om
ple
xity
of
cert
ain
typ
es
of
ph
en
om
en
a al
so m
ake
s it
dif
ficu
lt
to d
ev
elo
p a
dap
tiv
e r
esp
on
ses.
Fo
r
exa
mp
le, t
he
th
reat
fro
m v
olc
anic
eru
pti
on
s in
vo
lve
s m
ore
th
an ju
st
the
ext
rusi
on
of
som
e m
agm
a
or
the
eje
ctio
n o
f so
me
vo
lcan
ic
ash
. In
th
e p
ast
20
0 y
ear
s, w
e
hav
e s
ee
n v
olc
ano
es
that
em
itte
d
flu
ori
ne
gas
wh
ich
kill
ed
larg
e
nu
mb
ers
of
pe
op
le a
nd
liv
est
ock
in I
cela
nd
, th
at c
reat
ed
po
iso
no
us
Du
rin
g t
he
ne
xt s
ola
r m
axi
mu
m t
he
re is
a v
ery
str
on
g
po
ssib
ility
th
at
we
will
exp
eri
en
ce
on
e o
r m
ore
so
lar
fla
res
tha
t h
av
e e
no
ug
h e
ne
rgy
to
dis
ab
le o
r d
est
roy
ou
r G
lob
al P
osi
tio
nin
g S
yst
em
(G
PS
) sa
telli
te n
etw
ork
.
Be
ca
use
th
at
ne
two
rk is
no
w b
ein
g u
sed
in a
wa
y t
ha
t
wa
s n
ev
er
inte
nd
ed
, na
me
ly t
o s
yn
ch
ron
ize
po
we
r
ge
ne
rati
on
th
rou
gh
ou
t th
e c
ou
ntr
y, t
he
loss
of
tha
t
ne
two
rk m
igh
t w
ell
bri
ng
do
wn
th
e e
nti
re e
lec
tric
al
gri
d o
f N
ort
h A
me
ric
a.
Ye
t th
is c
lea
rly
-de
fin
ed
an
d
hig
hly
-re
alis
tic
th
rea
t h
as
rec
eiv
ed
co
nsi
de
rab
ly le
ss
att
en
tio
n f
rom
fe
de
ral a
ge
nc
ies
an
d t
he
me
dia
th
an
sev
era
l lo
we
r-p
rob
ab
ility
ev
en
ts, s
uc
h a
s a
ste
roid
im-
pa
cts
. In
de
ed
, th
e U
nit
ed
Sta
tes
is c
urr
en
tly
sp
en
din
g
ov
er
$4
mill
ion
pe
r y
ea
r to
de
tec
t a
nd
wa
rn u
s a
bo
ut
the
ast
ero
id t
hre
at,
wh
ich
ha
s a
n e
xtre
me
ly lo
w p
rob
-
ab
ility
an
d a
ga
inst
wh
ich
we
ha
ve
no
wa
y t
o r
esp
on
d.
Photo: © Geopappas | Dreamstime.com
Th
e n
ext
so
lar
ma
xim
um
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Vic
ki B
ier,
Pro
fess
or
in t
he
De
par
tme
nt
of
Ind
ust
rial
an
d
Sys
tem
s E
ng
ine
eri
ng
an
d t
he
De
par
tme
nt
of
En
gin
ee
rin
g P
hys
ics
at t
he
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f W
isco
nsi
n–
Mad
iso
n
Car
l Tay
lor,
Ass
ista
nt
De
an o
f
the
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f S
ou
th A
lab
ama
Co
lleg
e o
f M
ed
icin
e, D
ire
cto
r o
f
the
Ce
nte
r fo
r S
trat
eg
ic H
eal
th
Inn
ov
atio
n a
nd
th
e N
atio
nal
Ce
nte
r
for
Dis
aste
r M
ed
ical
Re
spo
nse
Le
e C
lark
e, P
rofe
sso
r o
f S
oci
olo
gy
at R
utg
ers
Un
ive
rsit
y, N
ew
Je
rse
y
Car
oly
n K
ou
sky,
Fe
llow
at
Re
sou
rce
s fo
r th
e F
utu
re,
Was
hin
gto
n, D
C
30
Ext
ract
ion
of
Exp
osu
re I
nfo
rmat
ion
33
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Th
e u
niq
ue
char
acte
rist
ic o
f ae
rial
and
sat
ellit
e im
ages
—al
so r
efer
red
as
Ear
th O
bse
rvat
ion
dat
a—is
th
eir
syn
opti
c vi
ew o
f th
e E
arth
’s s
urf
ace
(Fig
. 1a)
. Th
ese
Ear
th O
bse
rvat
ion
imag
es a
re in
crea
sin
gly
use
d t
o m
ap
ph
ysic
al e
xpos
ure
(Fig
. 1d
) bec
ause
they
can
sh
ow t
he
enti
re s
pat
ial
exte
nt
of t
he
city
or
sett
lem
ent
in a
reg
ion
. Sat
ellit
e im
ages
dif
fer
bas
ed
on t
he
det
ail t
hey
sh
ow a
nd
th
e ar
ea
they
cov
er. A
eria
l ph
otog
rap
hy
and
Ver
y H
igh
Res
olu
tion
(VH
R) s
atel
lite
imag
ery—
that
of
reso
luti
on o
f 1
x 1
m
or b
ette
r—al
low
s fo
r id
enti
fica
tion
and
map
pin
g o
f b
uild
ing
s (F
ig. 1
b) a
nd
thu
s th
e b
uild
ing
sto
ck (F
ig. 1
.d) .
VH
R s
atel
lite
imag
ery
is in
crea
sin
gly
avai
lab
le f
rom
com
mer
cial
imag
e
pro
vid
ers.
Th
e co
arse
r re
solu
tion
imag
ery
(Fig
. 1.c
) is
ofte
n f
reel
y
avai
lab
le t
o th
e re
sear
ch c
omm
un
ity
and
civ
il so
ciet
y an
d is
typ
ical
ly
use
d t
o m
ap la
rge
area
s. S
atel
lite
imag
ery
is o
ften
pre
ferr
ed t
o ae
rial
ph
otog
rap
hy
bec
ause
of
its
glo
bal
avai
lab
ility
an
d u
n-r
estr
icte
d u
se
(htt
p://
en.w
ikip
edia
.org
/wik
i/Sat
ellit
e_
imag
ery)
.
A r
ang
e of
air
bor
ne
and
sat
ellit
e-
bor
ne
sen
sors
pro
vid
e ob
liqu
e
look
ing
imag
es t
hat
can
be
use
d t
o
char
acte
rize
th
e b
uilt
-up
or
bu
ildin
g
stoc
k. N
adir
look
ing
imag
ery
has
bee
n p
rove
n o
f g
reat
ben
efit
for
the
accu
rate
sp
atia
l map
pin
g o
f
bu
ildin
gs.
Sid
e lo
okin
g im
ages
dep
ict
bu
ildin
g f
acad
es a
nd
th
us
are
use
d t
o
der
ive
info
rmat
ion
on
th
e q
ual
ity
of
bu
ildin
g a
s w
ell.
Th
e ob
liqu
e lo
okin
g
imag
ery
cap
ture
d in
ste
reo
is a
lso
use
d t
o d
eriv
e th
e b
uild
ing
s h
eig
ht
as w
ell a
s la
nd
scap
e to
pog
rap
hy.
New
er t
ech
nol
ogie
s su
ch a
s L
iDA
R
(Lig
ht
Det
ecti
on a
nd
Ran
gin
g),
pro
vid
e d
etai
led
bu
ildin
g h
eig
hts
and
top
ogra
ph
y in
form
atio
n, a
nd
very
hig
h r
esol
uti
on r
adar
imag
ery
is
also
sta
rtin
g t
o b
e u
sed
for
bu
ilt-u
p
map
pin
g, b
uild
ing
hei
gh
t, a
nd
sto
ck
asse
ssm
ents
.
Exp
osu
re d
ata
Med
ium
res
olu
tion
sat
ellit
e im
ager
y
has
bee
n u
sed
to
pro
du
ce la
nd
cov
er
map
s an
d la
nd
use
map
s. C
onti
nen
tal
lan
d c
over
map
s h
ave
bee
n d
evel
oped
for
the
Un
ited
Sta
tes,
for
Eu
rop
e,
and
par
t of
Afr
ica
as w
ell a
s In
dia
.
Th
ese
lan
d c
over
map
s in
clu
de
one
or m
ore
“art
ific
ial s
urf
aces
/urb
an”
clas
ses.
Th
ese
clas
ses
rela
te t
o th
e
den
sity
of
man
mad
e st
ruct
ure
s in
sett
lem
ent
and
urb
an a
reas
an
d c
an
be
use
d a
s a
bas
ic s
urr
ogat
e m
easu
re
for
ph
ysic
al e
xpos
ure
in c
oun
try
or
con
tin
ent-
wid
e as
sess
men
ts. U
rban
lan
d u
se m
aps
focu
s on
cit
ies
and
are
mor
e d
etai
led
sin
ce t
hey
gen
eral
ly
pro
vid
e a
larg
er n
um
ber
of
bu
ilt-
up
su
b c
lass
es r
equ
ired
by
mor
e
sop
his
tica
ted
cla
ssif
icat
ion
sch
emes
.
Wh
ile la
nd
cov
er c
lass
es o
nly
iden
tify
the
pre
sen
ce o
f th
e b
uilt
-up
, urb
an
lan
d u
se c
lass
es t
ypic
ally
con
tain
attr
ibu
te in
form
atio
n o
n t
he
bu
ilt-u
p
den
sity
as
wel
l as
the
use
of
bu
ildin
gs
and
oth
er u
rban
par
amet
ers
that
are
ind
epen
den
t fr
om im
ager
y. T
he
lan
d c
over
an
d la
nd
use
cla
ssif
icat
ion
s
der
ived
fro
m m
ediu
m r
esol
uti
on
sate
llite
dat
a ar
e u
sual
ly in
suff
icie
nt
wh
en t
he
goa
l is
to d
iffe
ren
tiat
e ri
sk,
or if
exp
ecte
d d
amag
es a
re t
o b
e
qu
anti
fied
.
Ass
ess
me
nt
at t
he
ind
ivid
ual
cit
y
lev
els
re
qu
ire
s th
e u
se o
f V
HR
imag
ery
(F
ig. 2
a) t
hat
pro
vid
es
info
rmat
ion
on
bu
ildin
gs
and
oth
er
man
mad
e o
bje
cts
incl
ud
ing
tran
spo
rt in
fras
tru
ctu
re. N
ot
on
ly
bu
ilt-u
p a
reas
bu
t al
so t
he
bu
ildin
g
sto
ck c
an t
hu
s b
e e
xtra
cte
d a
s
qu
anti
tati
ve
info
rmat
ion
wh
ich
is
a
b
c
d
Fig
ure
1: E
arth
Ob
serv
atio
n (
a); i
mag
ery
co
ve
rin
g 1
km2 o
f N
airo
bi:
hig
h r
eso
luti
on
(b)
and
me
diu
m r
eso
luti
on
(c)
; an
d a
n e
xam
ple
of
de
riv
ed
exp
osu
re d
atas
ets
fo
r
San
a’a
(d)
Ext
rac
tio
n o
f E
xpo
sure
In
form
ati
on
fro
m
Ea
rth
Ob
serv
ati
on
Sa
telli
te i
ma
ge
s d
iffe
r b
ase
d o
n a
nu
mb
er
of
pa
ram
ete
rs
of
wh
ich
tw
o,
the
la
nd
sca
pe
de
tail
an
d t
he
are
a c
ov
ere
d,
are
ta
ke
n i
nto
ac
co
un
t w
he
n m
ap
pin
g a
nd
qu
an
tify
ing
e
xpo
sure
. In
ge
ne
ral,
ima
ge
ry t
ha
t p
rov
ide
s le
ss d
eta
il c
ov
ers
la
rge
are
as
of
the
Ea
rth
su
rfa
ce
, w
hile
im
ag
ery
c
ov
eri
ng
re
lati
ve
ly
sma
ll a
rea
s p
rov
ide
s h
igh
er
de
tail.
C
oa
rse
r im
ag
ery
co
ve
rin
g l
arg
e a
rea
s is
ty
pic
ally
use
d
to m
ap
co
un
trie
s o
r re
gio
ns
wh
ile f
ine
r sc
ale
fo
r h
igh
re
solu
tio
n im
ag
ery
an
d a
eri
al p
ho
tog
rap
hy
are
inc
rea
sin
gly
u
sed
fo
r m
ap
pin
g e
xpo
sure
at
cit
y o
r lo
ca
l le
ve
ls.
Photo: © Teresa Newton | Dreamstime.com
32
Dr.
Dan
iele
Eh
rlic
hS
en
ior
Re
sear
che
rJ
oin
t R
ese
arch
Ce
ntr
e,
Eu
rop
ean
Co
mm
issi
on
.
Ext
ract
ion
of
Exp
osu
re I
nfo
rmat
ion
35
34
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
an u
rban
ize
d a
rea
is b
y d
elin
eat
ing
the
ov
era
ll se
ttle
me
nt
ext
en
t.
Se
ttle
me
nt
map
s ca
n n
ow
be
de
riv
ed
usi
ng
au
tom
ate
d c
om
pu
ter
tech
niq
ue
s. T
he
se t
ech
niq
ue
s
are
typ
ical
ly c
om
pu
ted
ov
er
larg
er
reg
ion
s su
ch a
s an
en
tire
me
tro
po
litan
are
a an
d, i
f im
age
ry is
avai
lab
le, o
ve
r co
un
trie
s (F
ig. 3
).
Sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt im
age
pro
cess
ing
als
o a
dd
ress
es
the
char
acte
riza
tio
n o
f se
ttle
me
nts
bas
ed
on
info
rmat
ion
de
riv
ed
fro
m
the
imag
ery
. Th
e a
im is
to
ide
nti
fy
bu
ilt u
p-p
atte
rns
that
re
late
to
fun
ctio
ns
and
cit
y n
eig
hb
orh
oo
ds.
Th
e r
ese
arch
is p
arti
cula
rly
adv
ance
d f
or
the
ide
nti
fica
tio
n o
f
de
nse
, irr
eg
ula
rly
spac
ed
, an
d b
uilt
-
up
pat
tern
s d
ep
riv
ed
of
ve
ge
tati
on
that
are
typ
ical
ly a
sso
ciat
ed
wit
h
info
rmal
se
ttle
me
nts
in m
any
larg
e
citi
es
of
low
er-
inco
me
co
un
trie
s.
Cu
rre
nt
rese
arch
aim
s to
lin
k th
e
Ear
th O
bse
rvat
ion
de
riv
ed
bu
ilt-u
p
pat
tern
s to
me
anin
gfu
l att
rib
ute
s
to b
e u
sed
in d
isas
ter
risk
. An
oth
er
po
ten
tial
use
of
auto
mat
ed
imag
e
pro
cess
ing
is in
th
e g
en
era
tio
n o
f
inte
rme
dia
te o
utp
uts
th
at a
ssis
t
in b
ett
er
org
aniz
ing
th
e m
ore
lab
or-
inte
nsi
ve
man
ual
an
alys
is, f
or
inst
ance
, th
rou
gh
be
tte
r sa
mp
ling
de
sig
n.
Ch
alle
ng
es
Ear
th O
bse
rvat
ion
is a
n e
xce
llen
t
too
l to
pro
vid
e t
he
loca
tio
n a
nd
size
of
bu
ilt-u
p o
r b
uild
ing
sto
ck.
Imag
ery
, ho
we
ver,
can
on
ly in
par
t
add
ress
th
e n
ee
d o
f in
form
atio
n
abo
ut
the
qu
alit
y o
f th
e b
uilt
-up
or
bu
ildin
g s
tock
. Qu
alit
y d
efi
ne
s th
e
valu
e a
nd
th
e s
tru
ctu
ral v
uln
era
bili
ty
and
is p
art
of
exp
osu
re a
s is
loca
tio
n
and
siz
e.
Th
e la
test
imag
ing
tech
no
log
ies
that
incl
ud
e o
bliq
ue
ph
oto
gra
ph
y, s
tere
o a
nd
mu
lti-
ang
ula
r im
age
ry, a
nd
RA
DA
R, a
s w
ell
as m
ob
ile f
ield
imag
ing
de
vice
s, c
an
pro
vid
e in
form
atio
n t
o t
he
fin
est
imag
e d
eta
il o
n a
sin
gle
bu
ildin
g. T
hat
info
rmat
ion
has
to
be
co
nve
rte
d
to s
tati
stic
ally
so
un
d b
uild
ing
typ
e
clas
sifi
cati
on
—a
vuln
era
bili
ty c
lass
—th
at is
re
late
d t
o it
s st
ruct
ura
l
solid
ity
and
val
ue
. Th
at s
tep
will
hav
e
to b
e d
eci
de
d b
y sp
eci
alis
ts w
ho
may
incl
ud
e c
ivil
en
gin
ee
rs. E
xpe
rie
nce
d
and
mo
de
rate
d c
row
dso
urc
ing
may
be
an
op
tio
n f
or
cove
rin
g la
rge
bu
ilt-
up
are
as.
At
the
loca
l le
ve
l, e
xpo
sure
dat
ase
ts c
an b
e r
ela
tiv
ely
rap
idly
ge
ne
rate
d f
rom
re
mo
te s
en
sin
g
that
de
fin
es
loca
tio
n a
nd
siz
e,
and
fie
ld s
urv
eys
sh
ou
ld p
rov
ide
qu
alit
y o
f th
e b
uilt
-up
. Sat
elli
te
imag
ery
can
be
acq
uir
ed
by
imag
e
pro
vid
ers
; th
e f
ield
exp
ert
ise
can
be
gat
he
red
fro
m p
rofe
ssio
nal
s w
ith
loca
l exp
ert
ise
; an
d t
he
re
lev
ant
too
ls a
nd
pro
ced
ure
s ar
e o
fte
n
avai
lab
le in
th
e o
pe
n-s
ou
rce
do
mai
n
and
de
riv
ed
fro
m b
est
pra
ctic
es.
Th
e c
hal
len
ge
at
the
loca
l le
ve
l is
inst
itu
tio
nal
an
d r
ela
tes
to d
isas
ter
risk
aw
are
ne
ss, r
eso
urc
e a
vai
lab
ility
,
reso
urc
e a
lloca
tio
n, a
nd
tra
inin
g.
Ris
k aw
are
ne
ss n
ee
ds
to b
e r
aise
d
in s
om
e lo
cal c
om
mu
nit
ies.
Lo
cal
de
cisi
on
mak
ers
ne
ed
to
ad
vo
cate
the
de
ve
lop
me
nt
of
exp
osu
re
and
—w
he
n a
vai
lab
le—
sho
uld
be
allo
cate
d t
o b
oth
eq
uip
th
e s
taff
wit
h a
de
qu
ate
eq
uip
me
nt
and
tra
in
staf
f in
th
e u
se o
f to
ols
so
th
e
tech
no
log
y ca
n b
e a
bso
rbe
d b
y th
e
com
mu
nit
y.
Th
e b
igg
er
chal
len
ge
is t
he
re
gio
nal
,
nat
ion
al a
nd
glo
bal
exp
osu
re
dat
ase
ts. T
hat
is in
par
t in
stit
uti
on
al
bu
t te
chn
ical
as
we
ll. T
he
hig
h
reso
luti
on
sat
elli
te im
age
ry
for
de
ve
lop
ing
a b
uild
ing
sto
ck
inv
en
tory
is a
lmo
st g
lob
ally
av
aila
ble
fro
m c
om
me
rcia
l im
age
re
po
sito
ry.
Th
e d
ata
pro
cess
ing
infr
astr
uct
ure
can
be
mad
e a
vai
lab
le a
nd
pro
cess
ing
th
e g
lob
al V
HR
imag
ery
arch
ive
is a
dau
nti
ng
tas
k b
ut
no
t
un
feas
ible
. It
is t
he
pro
cess
ing
too
ls a
nd
pro
ced
ure
s —
in la
rge
par
t au
tom
ate
d—
that
may
no
t b
e
suff
icie
ntl
y d
ev
elo
pe
d t
o p
rod
uce
pro
du
cts
of
ade
qu
ate
acc
ura
cy.
Mo
st im
po
rtan
tly
the
re is
no
op
en
ly
avai
lab
le a
nd
ag
ree
d s
trat
eg
y
on
wh
at s
tru
ctu
ral v
uln
era
bili
ty
info
rmat
ion
to
me
asu
re a
nd
ho
w t
o
colle
ct s
uch
info
rmat
ion
fo
r a
glo
bal
bu
ilt-u
p o
r b
uild
ing
sto
ck m
ap.
Co
llect
ing
th
e d
ata
may
re
qu
ire
a co
llab
ora
tiv
e a
pp
roac
h s
uch
as
mo
de
rate
d c
row
dso
urc
ing
.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Gu
ido
Le
mo
ine
, Se
nio
r S
cie
nti
st,
Jo
int
Re
sear
ch C
en
tre
of
the
Eu
rop
ean
Co
mm
issi
on
Ind
erj
it C
lair
e, V
ice
Pre
sid
en
t,
Sal
es,
Ris
k M
anag
em
en
t
So
luti
on
s In
dia
Mar
k L
uca
s, D
ivis
ion
Man
age
r,
Rad
ian
tBlu
e T
ech
no
log
ies,
In
c.
A r
an
ge
of
air
bo
rne
an
d
sate
llite
-bo
rne
se
nso
rs
pro
vid
e o
bliq
ue
loo
kin
g
ima
ge
s th
at
ca
n b
e
use
d t
o c
ha
rac
teri
ze
the
bu
ilt-u
p o
r b
uild
ing
st
oc
k.
mo
re s
uit
able
fo
r d
isas
ter
risk
anal
ysis
(F
ig. 2
c-d
). T
he
acc
ura
cy
and
pre
cisi
on
of
the
re
sult
ing
info
rmat
ion
de
pe
nd
s o
n t
he
ext
ract
ion
te
chn
iqu
es,
wh
ich
are
in t
urn
re
late
d t
o t
he
co
st o
f
pro
cess
ing
.
Poi
nt
asse
ssm
ent
(Fig
. 2b
) is
a b
asic
app
roac
h t
o cr
eati
ng
an
inve
nto
ry o
f
stru
ctu
res
that
is t
ypic
ally
acc
ura
te
and
fai
rly
rap
id. P
oin
t as
sess
men
t
doe
s n
ot p
rovi
de
info
rmat
ion
on
siz
e
of b
uild
ing
s, w
hic
h is
imp
orta
nt,
for
inst
ance
, to
esti
mat
e th
eir
valu
e. A
ny
bu
ildin
g d
ensi
ty e
stim
atio
n b
ased
on
poi
nt
dat
a co
uld
be
seve
rely
bia
sed
.
Sim
ple
det
ecti
on a
nd
lab
elin
g a
re
still
oft
en u
sed
for
pro
vid
ing
rap
id
asse
ssm
ent
of t
he
hou
sin
g s
tock
esp
ecia
lly in
a p
ost-
dis
aste
r sc
enar
io
wh
en t
he
nu
mb
er o
f d
amag
ed
bu
ildin
gs
nee
ds
to b
e m
easu
red
agai
nst
th
e to
tal n
um
ber
of
bu
ildin
gs.
Bu
ildin
g f
ootp
rin
t (F
ig. 2
c) m
aps
yiel
d u
sefu
l mea
sure
s fo
r ri
sk
asse
ssm
ent
such
as
den
sity
, sp
ace
bet
wee
n b
uild
ing
s, s
ize
of b
uild
ing
s,
or p
roxi
mit
y of
bu
ildin
gs
to p
oten
tial
haz
ard
s. D
elin
eati
ng
eac
h in
div
idu
al
bu
ildin
g o
r st
ruct
ure
is m
ore
tim
e
con
sum
ing
th
an p
oin
t re
pre
sen
tati
on
bu
t su
pp
orts
a b
road
er r
ang
e of
app
licat
ion
s.
Th
e m
ost
pre
cise
bu
ildin
g a
sses
smen
t
is o
bta
ined
by
mea
suri
ng
th
e vo
lum
e
of s
ing
le b
uild
ing
s (F
ig. 2
d).
For
ris
k
asse
ssm
ents
, th
e n
um
ber
of
floo
rs in
com
bin
atio
n w
ith
th
e fo
otp
rin
t ar
ea
pro
vid
es in
form
atio
n o
n f
loor
sp
ace
from
wh
ich
cos
t an
d lo
ss f
un
ctio
ns
can
be
calc
ula
ted
. Flo
or s
pac
e is
als
o
use
ful t
o m
ore
pre
cise
ly e
stim
ate
pop
ula
tion
den
siti
es. E
stim
atin
g
bu
ildin
g v
olu
me
req
uir
es h
eig
ht
and
area
. Are
a ca
n b
e d
eriv
ed f
rom
th
e
foot
pri
nts
wh
ile h
eig
ht
is t
ypic
ally
der
ived
fro
m s
tere
o im
ager
y.
Info
rma
tio
n e
xtra
cti
on
Exp
osu
re m
aps
de
scri
be
d a
bo
ve
are
mo
st o
fte
n d
eri
ve
d t
hro
ug
h
len
gth
y v
isu
al a
nal
ysis
pro
ced
ure
,
bu
t ad
van
ces
in im
age
pro
cess
ing
sug
ge
st t
hat
th
e s
imila
r p
rod
uct
s
may
be
pro
du
ced
mo
re e
ffic
ien
tly
usi
ng
ad
van
ced
mac
hin
e-a
ssis
ted
pro
ced
ure
s. N
ew
co
mp
ute
r
bas
ed
alg
ori
thm
s to
map
bu
ildin
g
foo
tpri
nts
fro
m s
ing
le d
ate
imag
ery
or
bu
ildin
g v
olu
me
fro
m s
tere
o
imag
ery
are
fai
rly
adv
ance
d e
ve
n if
the
y d
o n
ot
pro
du
ce p
rod
uct
s w
ith
the
pre
cisi
on
fro
m v
isu
al a
nal
ysis
.
Ad
van
ced
co
mp
ute
r-b
ase
d
alg
ori
thm
s m
ay p
rod
uce
alt
ern
ativ
e
pro
du
cts
to a
bu
ildin
g s
tock
or
lan
d c
ov
er
lan
d u
se m
ap. O
ne
su
ch
pro
du
ct m
ay b
e a
se
ttle
me
nt
map
—a
bin
ary
bu
ilt-u
p /
no
t b
uilt
-
up
map
th
at c
on
tain
s m
anm
ade
stru
ctu
res
as in
an
urb
aniz
ed
are
a.
Th
e s
imp
lest
way
of
rep
rese
nti
ng
Fig
ure
2: T
he
fig
ure
sh
ow
s a
25
0 x
25
0 m
larg
e a
rea
colle
cte
d o
ve
r S
ana’
a an
d t
he
de
riv
ed
exp
osu
re p
rod
uct
s (a
), p
oin
t
asse
ssm
en
ts (
b),
bu
ildin
g f
oo
tpri
nt
map
(c)
an
d b
uild
ing
vo
lum
e m
ap (
d)
Fig
ure
3. E
xam
ple
of
bin
ary
bu
ilt-u
p m
aps
for
a n
um
be
r o
f ci
tie
s d
eri
ve
d t
hro
ug
h m
ach
ine
-ass
iste
d p
roce
du
res
ab
cd
37
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g h
as b
ee
n a
pp
lied
in o
the
r se
cto
rs a
nd
fo
r m
ult
iple
pu
rpo
ses
incl
ud
ing
dat
a cr
un
ch-
ing
, tra
nsl
atio
n, g
eo
loca
tio
n a
nd
tran
scri
pti
on
. Wh
ile t
he
ap
plic
atio
n
of
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g m
ay b
e n
ew
fo
r
man
y se
cto
rs, t
he
ap
pro
ach
is a
we
ll-kn
ow
n a
nd
est
ablis
he
d s
am-
plin
g m
eth
od
in s
tati
stic
s. C
row
d-
sou
rcin
g is
just
no
n-p
rob
abili
ty
sam
plin
g. T
he
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g o
f ri
sk
asse
ssm
en
ts is
sim
ply
an
ap
plic
atio
n
of
no
n-p
rob
abili
ty s
amp
ling
.
In p
rob
abili
ty s
amp
ling
, ev
ery
un
it
in t
he
po
pu
lati
on
be
ing
sam
ple
d
has
a k
no
wn
pro
bab
ility
(g
reat
er
than
ze
ro)
of
be
ing
se
lect
ed
. Th
is
app
roac
h m
ake
s it
po
ssib
le t
o “
pro
-
du
ce u
nb
iase
d e
stim
ate
s o
f p
op
ula
-
tio
n t
ota
ls, b
y w
eig
hti
ng
sam
ple
d
un
its
acco
rdin
g t
o t
he
ir p
rob
abili
ty
sele
ctio
n.”
No
n-p
rob
abili
ty s
amp
ling
,
on
th
e o
the
r h
and
, de
scri
be
s an
app
roac
h in
wh
ich
so
me
un
its
of
the
po
pu
lati
on
hav
e n
o c
han
ce o
f b
ein
g
sele
cte
d o
r w
he
re t
he
pro
bab
ility
of
sele
ctio
n c
ann
ot
be
acc
ura
tely
de
term
ine
d. A
n e
xam
ple
is c
on
ve
-
nie
nce
sam
plin
g. T
he
mai
n d
raw
bac
k
of
no
n-p
rob
abili
ty s
amp
ling
te
ch-
niq
ue
s is
th
at “
info
rmat
ion
ab
ou
t
the
re
lati
on
ship
be
twe
en
sam
ple
and
po
pu
lati
on
is li
mit
ed
, mak
ing
it
dif
ficu
lt t
o e
xtra
po
late
fro
m t
he
sam
ple
to
th
e p
op
ula
tio
n.”
Th
e d
isti
nct
ion
be
twe
en
pro
bab
ility
sam
plin
g a
nd
no
n-p
rob
abili
ty s
am-
plin
g is
imp
ort
ant
wh
en
it c
om
es
to
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
.
Ris
k is
ty
pic
ally
fo
rmu
late
d
as
be
ing
th
e p
rod
uc
t o
f
two
fa
cto
rs:
th
e p
rob
ab
ility
of
ha
zard
an
d
a
giv
en
po
pu
lati
on
’s
vu
lne
rab
ility
to
sa
id h
aza
rd.
Th
e la
tte
r is
ne
cess
arily
a
po
pu
lati
on
-bas
ed
fig
ure
. He
rein
lie
s
the
te
nsi
on
be
twe
en
tra
dit
ion
al
app
roac
he
s to
ass
ess
ing
ris
k
and
no
ve
l ap
pro
ach
es
that
app
ly c
row
dso
urc
ing
. Ris
k is
a p
op
ula
tio
n-b
ase
d e
stim
ate
that
re
qu
ire
s kn
ow
led
ge
of
po
pu
lati
on
siz
e f
or
the
pu
rpo
ses
of
pro
bab
ility
sam
plin
g. O
the
rwis
e,
the
se e
stim
ate
s ru
n t
he
ris
k
of
be
ing
un
rep
rese
nta
tiv
e o
f
a la
rge
r p
op
ula
tio
n. A
pp
lyin
g
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g—
or
no
n-p
rob
abili
ty
sam
plin
g—
to a
sse
ss r
isk
me
ans
that
th
e r
esu
lts
may
no
t b
e
rep
rese
nta
tiv
e.
Th
ere
are
se
ve
ral a
dv
anta
ge
s to
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g, h
ow
ev
er.
Fir
st,
no
n-p
rob
abili
ty s
amp
ling
is a
qu
ick
way
to
co
llect
an
d a
nal
yze
dat
a
in r
ang
e o
f se
ttin
gs
wit
h d
ive
rse
po
pu
lati
on
s. T
he
ap
pro
ach
is a
lso
a “c
ost
-eff
icie
nt
me
ans
of
gre
atly
incr
eas
ing
th
e s
amp
le, t
hu
s e
nab
ling
mo
re f
req
ue
nt
me
asu
rem
en
t.”
Th
e
me
tho
d is
als
o u
sed
in e
xplo
rato
ry
rese
arch
, e.g
., fo
r h
ypo
the
sis
ge
ne
rati
on
, esp
eci
ally
wh
en
atte
mp
tin
g t
o d
ete
rmin
e w
he
the
r a
pro
ble
m e
xist
s o
r n
ot.
In c
on
tras
t, p
rob
abili
ty s
amp
ling
oft
en
re
qu
ire
s co
nsi
de
rab
le
tim
e a
nd
ext
en
siv
e r
eso
urc
es.
Fu
rth
erm
ore
, no
n-r
esp
on
se e
ffe
cts
can
eas
ily t
urn
an
y p
rob
abili
ty
de
sig
n in
to n
on
-pro
bab
ility
sam
plin
g
if t
he
“ch
arac
teri
stic
s o
f n
on
-
resp
on
se a
re n
ot
we
ll u
nd
ers
too
d”
sin
ce t
he
se m
od
ify
eac
h u
nit
’s
pro
bab
ility
of
be
ing
sam
ple
d. T
his
is
no
t to
su
gg
est
th
at o
ne
ap
pro
ach
is b
ett
er
than
th
e o
the
r si
nce
th
is
de
pe
nd
s e
nti
rely
on
th
e c
on
text
.
Ind
eed
, in
som
e ca
ses
non
-
pro
bab
ility
sam
plin
g m
ay a
ctu
ally
be
the
only
ap
pro
ach
ava
ilab
le—
a
com
mon
con
stra
int
in m
any
med
ical
stu
die
s an
d t
he
rece
nt
app
licat
ion
of c
row
dso
urc
ing
in H
aiti
. Ju
st
hou
rs a
fter
th
e ea
rth
qu
ake
on J
an.
12
, 20
10
, Ush
ahid
i lau
nch
ed a
n
inte
ract
ive
cris
is m
ap o
f H
aiti
an
d
crow
dso
urc
ed t
he
colle
ctio
n a
nd
map
pin
g o
f cr
isis
info
rmat
ion
. A la
rge
gro
up
of
volu
nte
ers
from
th
e H
aiti
an
Dia
spor
a, t
he
Fle
tch
er S
choo
l, Tu
fts
Un
iver
sity
, th
e G
enev
a In
stit
ute
of G
rad
uat
e S
tud
ies,
Lew
is &
Cla
rk
Col
leg
e, a
nd
hu
nd
red
s of
oth
ers
arou
nd
th
e w
orld
sif
ted
th
rou
gh
mai
nst
ream
an
d s
ocia
l med
ia s
ites
to
crea
te a
live
map
of
Hai
ti. J
ust
day
s
afte
r th
e la
un
chin
g o
f th
e U
shah
idi
map
of
Hai
ti, a
ded
icat
ed s
hor
t co
de
was
set
up
to
crow
dso
urc
e th
e ra
pid
asse
ssm
ent
of im
med
iate
nee
ds.
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g r
ep
rese
nts
a p
rom
isin
g b
ut
still
larg
ely
u
nte
ste
d
ap
pro
ac
h
for
ass
ess
ing
ri
sk.
Je
ff
Ho
we
c
oin
ed
th
e t
erm
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g i
n 2
00
6 a
nd
de
fin
ed
it
as
“th
e a
ct
of
tak
ing
a j
ob
tra
dit
ion
ally
pe
rfo
rme
d
by
a
d
esi
gn
ate
d
ag
en
t (u
sua
lly
an
e
mp
loy
ee
) a
nd
o
uts
ou
rcin
g i
t to
an
un
de
fin
ed
, g
en
era
lly l
arg
e g
rou
p
of
pe
op
le i
n t
he
fo
rm o
f a
n o
pe
n c
all.
” T
he
ke
y w
ord
s h
ere
are
“u
nd
efi
ne
d,”
“la
rge
gro
up
,” a
nd
“o
pe
n c
all.
”
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t:
Wis
do
m o
f th
e C
row
ds
Pat
rick
Me
ier
Dir
ect
or
of
Cri
sis
Map
pin
g
and
Str
ate
gic
Par
tne
rsh
ips
Ush
ahid
i
Illustration: © Heizfrosch | Dreamstime.com
36
39
38
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g
An
yon
e in
Hai
ti c
ould
sen
d a
n S
MS
to t
he
nu
mb
er 4
63
6 w
ith
his
or
her
loca
tion
an
d m
ost
urg
ent
nee
d.
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g w
as a
lso
use
d t
o g
eo-
loca
te a
nd
tra
nsl
ate
inco
min
g t
ext
mes
sag
es f
rom
Hai
tian
Cre
ole
into
En
glis
h.
Acc
ord
ing
to
FE
MA
an
d o
the
rs,
this
map
be
cam
e t
he
mo
st
com
pre
he
nsi
ve
an
d u
p-t
o-d
ate
sou
rce
of
info
rmat
ion
on
Hai
ti
avai
lab
le t
o t
he
hu
man
itar
ian
com
mu
nit
y—e
ve
n t
ho
ug
h t
he
info
rmat
ion
on
th
e m
ap w
as n
ot
ne
cess
arily
re
pre
sen
tati
ve
.
In s
um
, tra
dit
ion
al a
nd
no
vel
me
tho
ds
for
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
are
no
t in
com
pat
ible
bu
t ca
n a
ctu
ally
rein
forc
e e
ach
oth
er.
In a
dd
itio
n,
“bo
un
de
d c
row
dso
urc
ing
” ca
n a
lso
be
use
d w
he
reb
y a
kno
wn
an
d
tru
ste
d n
etw
ork
of
ind
ivid
ual
s
sou
rce
re
leva
nt
info
rmat
ion
.
Th
at s
aid
, cro
wd
sou
rcin
g t
he
asse
ssm
en
t o
f ri
sk d
ire
ctly
to
the
dis
aste
r-af
fect
ed
po
pu
lati
on
itse
lf r
ep
rese
nts
an
imp
ort
ant
op
po
rtu
nit
y to
mo
re q
uic
kly
resp
on
d
to t
he
ne
ed
s o
f th
at p
op
ula
tio
n.
At
the
sam
e t
ime
, ho
we
ver,
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g a
s an
ap
pro
ach
is
no
t re
pre
sen
tati
ve a
nd
als
o li
able
to f
alse
or
mis
info
rmat
ion
. No
te
that
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g d
oe
s in
cre
ase
the
pro
bab
ility
th
at in
form
atio
n
be
ing
co
llect
ed
can
be
tri
ang
ula
ted
sin
ce m
ore
info
rmat
ion
can
typ
ical
ly
be
co
llect
ed
mo
re q
uic
kly
usi
ng
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g. I
n o
the
r w
ord
s, t
he
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g o
f ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
ts
can
sca
le a
t re
lati
vely
low
co
st w
hile
the
sam
e c
ann
ot
be
sai
d o
f m
ore
trad
itio
nal
me
tho
ds.
Th
is is
wh
y th
e
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g o
f ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
ts
sho
uld
be
use
d in
co
nju
nct
ion
wit
h
mo
re f
orm
al m
eth
od
s.
Su
gg
est
ed
ne
xt s
tep
s to
fo
ste
r g
rea
ter
inn
ov
ati
on
an
d
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k sh
ou
ld s
up
po
rt
pilo
t p
roje
cts
that
se
ek
to
app
ly c
row
dso
urc
ing
to
ass
ess
risk
. It
is t
oo
ear
ly t
o o
rgan
ize
con
fere
nce
s o
n t
his
to
pic
or
to c
om
mis
sio
n r
ese
arch
. Th
e
use
of
cro
wd
sou
rcin
g f
or
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
is in
an
ear
ly
exp
eri
me
nta
l ph
ase
an
d w
e a
re
un
like
ly t
o le
arn
mo
re a
bo
ut
the
op
po
rtu
nit
ies
and
ch
alle
ng
es
this
re
pre
sen
ts w
ith
ou
t m
ore
case
stu
die
s an
d d
ata
to a
nal
yze
.
T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k sh
ou
ld
cata
lyze
th
e d
ev
elo
pm
en
t o
f
a “C
od
e o
f C
on
du
ct f
or
the
Use
of
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g in
Ris
k
Ass
ess
me
nts
.”
Co
mm
un
ity
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t
Cro
wd
sou
rcin
g
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t
“Exp
ert
”
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Bre
tt H
orv
ath
, Par
tne
r,
Re
-Vis
ion
Lab
s
Jo
hn
Cro
wle
y, R
ese
arch
Fe
llow
,
Har
var
d H
um
anit
aria
n I
nit
iati
ve
and
STA
R-T
IDE
S
Nig
el S
no
ad, L
ead
Cap
abili
tie
s
Re
sear
che
r fo
r M
icro
soft
Hu
man
itar
ian
Sys
tem
s, M
icro
soft
Se
cre
tary
of
Sta
te H
illar
y C
linto
n a
lso
ap
pla
ud
ed
th
e in
itia
tiv
e
in a
pu
blic
sp
ee
ch t
en
day
s af
ter
the
qu
ake
, no
tin
g t
hat
, “th
e
tech
no
log
y c
om
mu
nit
y h
as s
et
up
inte
ract
ive
map
s to
he
lp u
s
ide
nti
fy n
ee
ds
and
tar
ge
t re
sou
rce
s….A
nd
on
Mo
nd
ay, a
se
ve
n-
ye
ar-o
ld g
irl a
nd
tw
o w
om
en
we
re p
ulle
d f
rom
th
e r
ub
ble
of
a co
llap
sed
su
pe
rmar
ket
by
an
Am
eri
can
se
arch
-an
d-r
esc
ue
team
aft
er
the
y s
en
t a
text
me
ssag
e c
allin
g f
or
he
lp.”
Op
en
So
urc
e S
pa
tia
l We
b a
nd
Op
en
Da
ta
41
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Trad
itio
nal
ly g
ath
eri
ng
ge
osp
atia
l
dat
a h
as b
ee
n a
to
p-d
ow
n a
ffai
r,
con
du
cte
d b
y d
ata
exp
ert
s in
big
inst
itu
tio
ns
fro
m g
ov
ern
me
nts
to N
GO
s. I
f yo
u w
ant
a ri
sk
exp
osu
re d
atab
ase
, th
en
yo
u f
un
d
a te
am o
f e
xpe
rts
to g
o b
uild
it.
Ho
we
ve
r, d
ata
no
w f
low
s in
man
y
dir
ect
ion
s, a
nd
th
ere
are
oft
en
man
y o
rgan
izat
ion
s th
at c
are
an
d
kno
w a
bo
ut
var
iou
s as
pe
cts
of
an e
xpo
sure
dat
abas
e f
or
the
ir
ow
n p
urp
ose
s. T
he
ke
y is
to
alig
n
ince
nti
ve
s so
th
at a
ll w
ork
to
war
ds
the
sam
e e
nd
.
Th
e p
rob
lem
of
shar
ing
dat
a h
as
be
en
tra
dit
ion
ally
th
e d
om
ain
of
“Sp
atia
l Dat
a In
fras
tru
ctu
re”
(SD
I).
Th
e p
rim
ary
con
cern
of
SD
I b
uild
ing
has
be
en
on
e o
f re
du
cin
g d
up
licat
ion
in d
ata
gat
he
rin
g e
ffo
rts.
Ho
we
ver,
the
SD
I co
nce
pt
and
fra
me
wo
rk
was
est
ablis
he
d b
efo
re t
he
ad
ven
t
of
the
In
tern
et’
s ro
bu
st s
oci
al
and
co
llab
ora
tive
cap
abili
tie
s. T
he
amo
un
t o
f sh
arin
g a
nd
co
llab
ora
tio
n
on
th
e W
orl
d W
ide
We
b h
as b
eg
un
to h
igh
ligh
t th
e li
mit
atio
ns
of
SD
I.
Nat
ion
al a
nd
mu
lti-
nat
ion
al S
DI
pro
gra
ms
focu
s al
mo
st e
xclu
sive
ly
on
dat
a fr
om
off
icia
l so
urc
es,
gat
he
red
in t
rad
itio
nal
su
rve
y
eff
ort
s. T
his
can
hav
e a
n a
qu
ariu
m
eff
ect
—th
e e
xpe
rts
swim
aro
un
d,
ou
tsid
ers
ad
mir
e t
he
wo
rk, b
ut
the
pro
du
ct r
em
ain
s at
a d
ista
nce
. A
s a
con
seq
ue
nce
, dat
a vi
tal t
o d
isas
ter
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
eff
ort
s ar
e t
oo
dif
ficu
lt t
o f
ind
, or
tig
htl
y h
eld
, or
ne
ver
shar
ed
at
all.
Ho
w c
an w
e r
em
ov
e t
his
“g
lass
wal
l” b
etw
ee
n t
he
to
p-d
ow
n d
ata
gat
he
rin
g e
ffo
rts
of
trad
itio
nal
SD
I in
itia
tiv
es,
an
d t
he
bo
tto
m-
up
“n
eo
ge
og
rap
hy”
exc
ite
me
nt
of
Go
og
le M
aps
mas
h-u
ps,
Op
en
Str
ee
tMap
, Ush
ahid
i, an
d
Ge
oC
om
mo
ns?
Th
ese
an
d o
the
r
eff
ort
s h
ave
led
to
ne
w a
nd
exc
itin
g
foru
ms
for
dat
a cr
eat
ion
, sh
arin
g
and
co
llab
ora
tio
n.
Ho
w d
o w
e
en
cou
rag
e c
om
mu
nit
y, s
har
ing
,
and
co
llab
ora
tio
n a
rou
nd
all
typ
es
of
dat
a to
be
ne
fit
dis
aste
r ri
sk
asse
ssm
en
t m
od
elin
g a
nd
oth
er
vit
al, d
ata
inte
nsi
ve
pro
cess
es?
Th
e ke
y is
to
alig
n t
he
ince
nti
ves
of e
very
one
gat
her
ing
dat
a in
an
“arc
hit
ectu
re o
f p
arti
cip
atio
n”,
wh
ere
we
fin
d w
ays
to e
nco
ura
ge
peo
ple
to
par
tici
pat
e in
bu
ildin
g
geo
spat
ial i
nfo
rmat
ion
, in
stea
d o
f
just
giv
ing
th
em t
op-d
own
man
dat
es.
“Arc
hit
ectu
re o
f P
arti
cip
atio
n”
is b
oth
soci
al a
nd
tec
hn
ical
, lev
erag
ing
th
e
skill
s an
d e
ner
gy
of u
sers
as
mu
ch
as p
ossi
ble
to
coop
erat
e in
bu
ildin
g
som
eth
ing
big
ger
th
an a
ny
sin
gle
per
son
or
org
aniz
atio
n c
ould
do
alon
e.
Bu
t h
ow c
an w
e u
se t
ech
nol
ogy
to
bu
ild c
omm
un
itie
s th
at w
ill n
atu
rally
colla
bor
ate,
an
d e
ng
age
com
mu
nit
ies
to b
uild
th
e p
rop
er t
ech
nol
ogy?
Par
tici
pat
ion
req
uir
es b
oth
: a
com
mu
nit
y w
ill n
ot f
un
ctio
n w
ell i
f
the
tool
s to
par
tici
pat
e ar
e to
o h
ard
to u
se, a
nd
th
e te
chn
olog
y ca
nn
ot
do
anyt
hin
g if
th
ere
is n
o su
pp
orti
ng
com
mu
nit
y.
Th
e r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t co
mm
un
ity
ne
ed
s e
xpo
sure
dat
a to
co
mp
lete
risk
cal
cula
tio
n m
od
els
. T
he
com
mu
nit
y n
ee
ds
to lo
cate
th
e
dat
a th
at a
lre
ady
exi
sts,
acc
ess
an
d
shar
e t
hat
dat
a, a
nd
cre
ate
th
e
dat
a th
at is
no
t in
exi
ste
nce
. It
mak
es
sen
se t
o u
se o
pe
n d
ata
that
is a
lre
ady
avai
lab
le.
Bu
t d
isas
ter
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
(an
d r
esp
on
se)
has
a p
ote
nti
ally
ev
en
big
ge
r ro
le t
o
pla
y in
th
e o
pe
n g
eo
spat
ial w
eb
, as
mo
re t
han
mo
st a
ny
oth
er
do
mai
n
it m
ake
s th
e n
ee
d f
or
dat
a cl
ear
.
Pe
op
le w
ill r
ead
ily r
ally
aro
un
d
op
en
ing
an
d c
reat
ing
dat
a th
at w
ill
he
lp s
ave
liv
es,
ev
en
wh
en
su
ch
dat
a w
ou
ld t
rad
itio
nal
ly b
e lo
cke
d
into
tig
htl
y co
ntr
olle
d “
silo
s.”
Ou
r p
ane
l of
exp
ert
s at
th
e
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k co
nfe
ren
ce in
Was
hin
gto
n, D
C—
incl
ud
ing
An
dre
w
Turn
er
of
Fo
rtiu
sOn
e, B
en
Wys
s
of
the
Glo
bal
Ear
thq
uak
e M
od
el
Fo
un
dat
ion
(G
EM
), Iv
an L
ien
laf
No
va o
f S
NIT
(C
hile
), M
ark
Lu
cas
of
Rad
ian
tBlu
e T
ech
no
log
ies,
Ole
Nie
lse
n o
f th
e A
ust
ralia
In
do
ne
sia
Fac
ility
fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n
(AIF
DR
.org
), an
d S
eb
asti
an B
en
thal
l,
Ge
oN
od
e le
ade
r at
Op
en
Ge
o—
led
a liv
ely
dis
cuss
ion
on
th
e r
ole
th
at
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
po
ten
tial
ly h
as in
bu
ildin
g t
he
op
en
ge
osp
atia
l we
b.
Ke
y id
ea
s, r
eq
uir
em
en
ts,
the
me
s, a
nd
ac
tio
n it
em
s
dis
cu
sse
d:
It is
cri
tica
l th
at g
eo
spat
ial
info
rmat
ion
be
as
eas
y to
fin
d
and
acc
ess
on
th
e W
eb
as
“re
gu
lar”
info
rmat
ion
re
adily
fou
nd
wit
h s
tan
dar
d I
nte
rne
t
sear
ch e
ng
ine
s. E
ve
n t
he
mo
st
com
mo
n g
eo
spat
ial f
orm
ats
(su
ch a
s sh
ape
file
s) a
re n
ot
as
eas
y to
fin
d a
nd
man
ipu
late
as
the
y sh
ou
ld b
e.
“Op
en
sta
nd
ard
s,”
“op
en
dat
a,”
and
“o
pe
n s
ou
rce
” ar
e
too
fre
qu
en
tly
con
flat
ed
, an
d
it is
imp
ort
ant
to k
no
w t
he
dif
fere
nce
. E
ve
n “
clo
sed
”
or
pri
vat
e d
ata
can
be
mad
e
read
ily a
vai
lab
le w
he
n o
pe
n
stan
dar
ds
are
em
plo
yed
.
So
ftw
are
so
luti
on
s b
ase
d o
n
op
en
sta
nd
ard
s ca
n s
imila
rly
be
a b
len
d o
f b
oth
op
en
so
urc
e a
nd
pro
pri
eta
ry c
od
e.
Ch
ris
Ho
lme
s P
resi
de
nt
Op
en
Ge
o
& Ed
war
d P
ickl
eS
en
ior
Vic
e P
resi
de
nt
Op
en
Ge
o
Bu
ildin
g t
he
Op
en
So
urc
e S
pat
ial
We
b a
nd
Op
en
Dat
a—th
e “
Op
en
Ge
osp
atia
l We
b”—
can
he
lp
imp
rov
e t
he
ide
nti
fica
tio
n a
nd
mit
igat
ion
of
glo
bal
dis
aste
r ri
sks
by
pro
vid
ing
th
e r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t
com
mu
nit
y w
ith
th
e t
ime
ly
ge
osp
atia
l in
form
atio
n it
re
qu
ire
s.
Th
e O
pe
n G
eo
spat
ial W
eb
is
key
to d
isas
ter
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
thro
ug
h e
nab
ling
dat
a sh
arin
g a
nd
coo
pe
rati
on
be
twe
en
all
affe
cte
d
par
tie
s—g
ov
ern
me
nts
, NG
Os,
com
me
rcia
l en
terp
rise
s, s
oci
al
en
terp
rise
s, a
nd
cit
ize
ns.
Bu
t
bu
ildin
g t
he
Op
en
Ge
osp
atia
l We
b
is a
s m
uch
a s
oci
al a
s a
tech
nic
al
en
terp
rise
.
Ris
k as
sess
me
nt
com
mu
nit
y
me
mb
ers
bu
ild m
od
els
of
the
pro
bab
ility
of
dis
aste
rs
stri
kin
g, a
nd
th
e e
ffe
cts
the
se
dis
aste
rs w
ill h
ave
on
pe
op
le a
nd
infr
astr
uct
ure
. B
ut
the
wo
rld
wid
e
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
com
mu
nit
y (a
s
rep
rese
nte
d b
y th
e U
nd
ers
tan
din
g
Ris
k g
rou
p—
ww
w.u
nd
ers
tan
dri
sk.
org
) kn
ow
s th
at e
ve
n w
ith
abso
lute
ly a
maz
ing
mo
de
ls, b
ad
dat
a g
oin
g in
eq
ual
s b
ad r
esu
lts
com
ing
ou
t. T
o a
ccu
rate
ly m
od
el
the
re
al w
orl
d w
e n
ee
d t
he
Op
en
Ge
osp
atia
l We
b t
o a
llow
acc
ess
to t
he
gre
at a
mo
un
ts o
f d
ata
req
uir
ed
—in
de
ed
an
acc
ura
te
map
do
wn
to
th
e b
uild
ing
lev
el
thro
ug
ho
ut
the
en
tire
wo
rld
.
Op
en
So
urc
e
Sp
ati
al W
eb
a
nd
Op
en
Da
ta1 2
40
Op
en
So
urc
e S
pa
tia
l We
b a
nd
Op
en
Da
ta
43
42
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Nat
ion
al S
DIs
wo
rk b
ett
er
wh
en
ho
ldin
gs
are
cle
arly
do
cum
en
ted
an
d a
cce
ss is
affo
rde
d t
o e
ve
ryo
ne
.
Fle
xib
ility
in s
yste
m d
esi
gn
is e
sse
nti
al f
or
glo
bal
ris
k
asse
ssm
en
t in
itia
tiv
es
like
GE
M
—w
hic
h is
be
ing
est
ablis
he
d t
o
be
ne
fit
a w
orl
dw
ide
co
mm
un
ity
wit
h h
ub
of
com
pu
tin
g p
ow
er
—if
th
e a
pp
rop
riat
e d
ata
are
avai
lab
le.
An
d, d
ata
and
so
ftw
are
syst
em
s n
ee
d t
o b
e d
ev
elo
pe
d a
s
sust
ain
able
—in
ord
er
to f
ue
l SD
I
dat
a re
qu
ire
me
nts
.
Cu
rre
ntl
y, G
IS s
yste
ms
are
to
o c
om
ple
x an
d d
ata
too
un
reac
hab
le.
Th
at is
wh
y
un
off
icia
l dat
a fo
rmat
s an
d
too
ls t
hat
are
eas
y to
use
,
such
as
KM
L, c
an b
eco
me
off
icia
l sta
nd
ard
s th
rou
gh
th
eir
ge
ne
ral a
cce
pta
nce
an
d w
ide
use
. U
ltim
ate
ly, s
oft
war
e t
oo
ls
and
dat
a fo
rmat
s th
at a
llow
use
rs t
o c
reat
e t
he
ap
plic
atio
ns
the
y n
ee
d—
like
laye
rin
g o
r
“mas
hin
g u
p”
mu
ltip
le d
ata
sets
into
co
mm
on
op
era
tin
g
pic
ture
s th
at a
nyo
ne
can
de
ve
lop
—w
ill b
e t
he
on
es
that
ach
iev
e w
ide
acc
ep
tan
ce a
nd
ult
imat
ely
su
cce
ed
, so
me
tim
es
de
spit
e (
inst
ead
of
be
cau
se o
f)
go
ve
rnm
en
t st
and
ard
s.
Th
e o
pe
n g
eo
spat
ial w
eb
req
uir
es
bo
th o
pe
n d
ata
and
op
en
sou
rce
so
ftw
are
sys
tem
s th
at
allo
w u
sers
to
wo
rk t
og
eth
er
and
colla
bo
rate
. C
urr
en
tly
exp
en
sive
pro
pri
eta
ry s
oft
war
e s
yste
ms
are
th
e m
ain
to
ols
ava
ilab
le,
bu
t o
pe
n s
ou
rce
so
ftw
are
is
adva
nci
ng
to
mak
e c
olla
bo
rati
on
cap
abili
tie
s m
ore
wid
ely
acc
ess
ible
in t
hin
gs
like
wik
is f
or
ge
osp
atia
l
dat
a. S
oft
war
e d
eve
lop
ed
fo
r
colla
bo
rati
on
has
to
let
“bas
ic”
and
“ad
van
ced
” u
sers
co
llab
ora
te.
Th
is s
oft
war
e m
ust
allo
w t
he
tran
spar
en
cy a
nd
vit
alit
y o
f
succ
ess
ful I
nte
rne
t co
mm
un
ity
pro
ject
s—th
ese
pro
ject
s h
ave
succ
ee
de
d b
y g
row
ing
th
eir
ow
n
adm
inis
trat
ive
sys
tem
s an
d r
ule
s
to a
llow
fo
r in
no
vati
on
wh
ile
we
ed
ing
ou
t ab
use
s.
Co
llab
ora
tio
n t
ech
no
log
y
de
ve
lop
ed
sh
ou
ld a
llow
th
e
curr
en
t se
rial
pro
cess
of
ge
osp
atia
l dat
a v
alid
atio
n t
o
be
com
e a
mas
siv
ely
par
alle
l on
e.
Th
e m
ech
anis
ms
that
so
cial
ne
two
rk t
oo
ls a
llow
fo
r th
e
bu
ildin
g o
f tr
ust
ne
two
rks
are
on
e e
xam
ple
. It
is c
riti
cal t
hat
use
rs b
e a
ble
to
wo
rk t
og
eth
er
sid
e b
y si
de
. C
urr
en
tly
ev
en
po
we
rfu
l an
d e
asy
syst
em
s lik
e
Go
og
le M
aps/
Ear
th le
ave
use
rs
iso
late
d f
rom
co
llab
ora
tors
.
Po
litic
al a
nd
ph
iloso
ph
ical
issu
es
are
as
imp
ort
ant
as
tech
no
log
ical
on
es:
T
he
hig
h le
ve
l of
dat
a sh
arin
g
and
co
llab
ora
tio
n t
hat
was
see
n in
Hai
ti a
fte
r th
e r
ece
nt
ear
thq
uak
e w
as a
s m
uch
a
fun
ctio
n o
f a
lack
of
cen
tral
go
ve
rnm
en
t d
ela
ys a
s it
was
mo
de
rn t
ech
no
log
y. I
n r
ece
nt
dis
aste
rs in
th
e P
hili
pp
ine
s
and
Ch
ile, s
uch
a le
ve
l of
mu
lti-
en
terp
rise
co
llab
ora
tio
n
was
no
t p
oss
ible
du
e t
o
go
ve
rnm
en
t co
nce
rns
and
rest
rict
ion
s o
n d
ata.
O
ne
be
nch
mar
k n
ote
d: t
wo
-
thir
ds
of
syst
em
-bu
ildin
g
eff
ort
s sh
ou
ld b
e in
ou
tre
ach
and
tra
inin
g, a
nd
on
ly o
ne
-
thir
d in
te
chn
olo
gy.
T
he
imp
ort
ance
of
inv
olv
ing
ord
inar
y p
eo
ple
(n
ot
just
tech
no
log
ists
) in
de
ve
lop
ing
req
uir
em
en
ts, a
nd
incl
ud
ing
low
-te
ch p
roce
sse
s in
syst
em
s w
as n
ote
d a
nd
wid
ely
dis
cuss
ed
. T
his
can
be
ext
en
de
d t
o in
vo
lvin
g
oth
er
tech
no
log
ies,
su
ch a
s
com
mu
nic
atio
ns
tech
no
log
y,
in t
he
co
nv
ers
atio
n—
oth
er
we
ll-in
ten
tio
ne
d g
eo
spat
ial
coo
pe
rati
on
eff
ort
s h
ave
faile
d w
ith
ou
t su
ch in
clu
sio
n.
Co
nti
nu
ing
th
is d
iscu
ssio
n
is v
ital
.Op
en
So
urc
e S
pat
ial
We
b a
nd
Op
en
Dat
a at
th
e
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k C
on
fere
nce
was
itse
lf a
n a
nal
og
of
the
eff
ort
re
qu
ire
d t
o b
uild
th
e o
pe
n
ge
osp
atia
l we
b t
o im
pro
ve
glo
bal
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
t—it
will
re
qu
ire
str
on
g t
ech
no
log
y
de
ve
lop
me
nt
and
exc
han
ge
,
and
an
ev
en
gre
ate
r m
eas
ure
of
com
mu
nit
y b
uild
ing
an
d
dis
cuss
ion
.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Ole
Nie
lse
n, N
um
eri
cal M
od
elle
r,
Au
stra
lia-I
nd
on
esi
a F
acili
ty f
or
Dis
aste
r R
ed
uct
ion
Se
bas
tian
Be
nth
all,
Pro
ject
Man
age
r, O
pe
nG
eo
An
dre
w T
urn
er,
CT
O o
f
Fo
rtiu
sOn
e
Mar
k L
uca
s, D
ivis
ion
Man
age
r,
Rad
ian
tBlu
e T
ech
no
log
ies,
In
c.
Be
n W
yss,
IT,
GE
M F
ou
nd
atio
n
Lau
ren
t D
avid
Vai
sse
, GIS
/
SD
I C
on
sult
ant,
Se
cre
tarí
a d
e
Pla
nif
icac
ión
y P
rog
ram
ació
n
de
la P
resi
de
nci
a (S
EG
EP
LA
N),
Gu
ate
mal
a
53 4
9
7 8
6
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Ma
na
gin
g E
xtre
me
sT
ow
ard
Su
sta
ina
bili
ty
Mo
de
ling
:C
lima
te R
isk
Photo: © Alexander Lvov | Dreamstime.com
Insu
ran
ce
, re
insu
ran
ce
, an
d t
he
ir n
ew
dim
en
sio
n, m
icro
insu
ran
ce
, are
be
-in
g t
ran
sfo
rme
d. N
o lo
ng
er
see
n a
s a
so
me
wh
at
un
fash
ion
ab
le b
ran
ch
of
the
fi
na
nc
e s
ec
tor,
in
sura
nc
e i
s b
ein
g r
ein
terp
rete
d a
s th
e u
ltim
ate
“c
om
mu
-n
ity
pro
du
ct,
” e
na
blin
g p
op
ula
tio
ns
to s
ha
re t
he
co
sts
of
ext
rem
e e
ve
nts
a
t lo
ca
l an
d g
lob
al s
ca
les.
Th
is is
loc
ati
ng
insu
ran
ce
at
the
ve
ry h
ea
rt o
f th
e
sea
rch
fo
r su
sta
ina
ble
fu
ture
s.
To
fu
lfill
th
eir
ob
liga
tio
ns,
re
gu
lato
rs r
eq
uir
e i
nsu
rers
to
ha
ve
ac
ce
ss t
o
suff
icie
nt
ca
pit
al
to w
ith
sta
nd
th
e m
axi
mu
m p
rob
ab
le l
oss
es
exp
ec
ted
o
nc
e e
ve
ry 2
00
ye
ars
. F
or
ma
ny
in
sure
rs,
na
tura
l c
ata
stro
ph
e e
xpo
sure
p
rov
ide
s a
pri
ma
ry d
riv
er
of
the
se p
ote
nti
al l
oss
es.
No
oth
er
bra
nc
h o
f th
e
fin
an
ce
ind
ust
ry h
as
to m
an
ag
e t
o s
uc
h e
xtre
me
th
resh
old
s o
f su
sta
ina
bil-
ity
as
pa
rt o
f it
s e
ve
ryd
ay
op
era
tio
ns.
Th
ese
un
iqu
e d
em
an
ds
are
dri
vin
g
scie
nti
fic
in
qu
iry
an
d i
nsi
gh
ts w
hic
h m
ay
ext
en
d b
en
efi
ts f
ar
be
yo
nd
th
e
insu
ran
ce
ind
ust
ry.
Ro
wan
Do
ug
las
Ch
airm
anW
illis
Re
sear
ch G
rou
p
45
44
47
46
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mC
limat
e R
isk
Mo
de
ling
com
mu
nit
ies.
A g
row
ing
cro
ss-
sect
or
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
is e
me
rgin
g.
As
par
t o
f o
ur
role
in f
ind
ing
th
e
mo
st c
ost
-eff
ect
ive
way
s to
pre
par
e f
or
cata
stro
ph
es,
th
e
insu
ran
ce in
du
stry
sh
ou
ld c
on
sid
er
its
sust
ain
abili
ty a
nd
th
at o
f it
s
cust
om
ers
—b
e t
he
y m
ult
inat
ion
al
corp
ora
tio
ns
or
com
mu
nit
ies
of
farm
ers
. T
he
me
tho
do
log
ies
and
clim
ate
mo
de
ling
te
chn
olo
gie
s
em
plo
yed
by
the
insu
ran
ce in
du
stry
tod
ay t
o m
anag
e o
ur
exp
osu
re t
o
ext
rem
e e
ve
nts
als
o h
ave
a p
lace
in
en
suri
ng
ou
r su
stai
nab
ility
.
In m
y cl
osi
ng
re
mar
ks a
t th
e
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k co
nfe
ren
ce,
I in
vit
ed
th
e a
ud
ien
ce t
o r
ed
efi
ne
sust
ain
abili
ty in
te
rms
of
avo
idin
g
or
man
agin
g e
xtre
me
s—fr
om
corp
ora
te f
inan
cial
str
ess
an
d
ban
kru
ptc
y o
n W
all S
tre
et,
to f
igh
tin
g p
ov
ert
y, t
o h
elp
ing
com
mu
nit
ies
in d
ev
elo
pin
g c
ou
ntr
ies
mit
igat
e a
nd
ad
apt
to t
he
th
reat
s
po
sed
by
clim
ate
ch
ang
e.
In t
he
ory
, fin
anci
al r
eg
ula
tio
n o
f
corp
ora
te s
ust
ain
abili
ty e
nfo
rce
s
be
tte
r m
anag
em
en
t o
f e
xtre
me
s in
the
sam
e w
ay in
tern
atio
nal
clim
ate
chan
ge
po
licy
sup
po
rts
the
pro
tect
ion
of
the
wo
rld
’s m
ost
vu
lne
rab
le c
om
mu
nit
ies.
Ho
we
ve
r,
as w
e k
no
w, t
he
ory
do
es
no
t al
way
s
tran
slat
e in
to p
ract
ice
.
Th
e m
eth
od
s o
f ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t/
tran
sfe
r in
terv
en
tio
ns,
su
ch a
s
tho
se p
rov
ide
d b
y th
e in
sura
nce
ind
ust
ry, c
an h
elp
bu
ild r
esi
lien
ce
in c
ou
ntr
ies
mo
st a
t ri
sk t
o
ext
rem
es,
par
ticu
larl
y in
th
e f
ace
of
the
imp
acts
of
risi
ng
glo
bal
tem
pe
ratu
res.
It
is e
stim
ate
d
that
eco
no
mic
loss
es
fro
m n
atu
ral
cata
stro
ph
es
as a
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
GD
P a
re 2
0 t
ime
s g
reat
er
in
de
ve
lop
ing
co
un
trie
s th
an in
mo
re
adv
ance
d e
con
om
ies,
acc
ord
ing
to t
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k’s
mo
st r
ece
nt
Glo
bal
Fac
ility
fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n a
nd
Re
cov
ery
(G
FD
RR
)
20
09
an
nu
al r
ep
ort
.
Man
agin
g c
limat
e c
han
ge
ris
ks
req
uir
es
urg
en
t ac
tio
n o
n b
eh
alf
of
the
insu
ran
ce in
du
stry
to
he
lp
con
fro
nt
the
acc
um
ula
tio
n o
f
atm
osp
he
ric
gre
en
ho
use
lev
els
thro
ug
h r
ed
uci
ng
glo
bal
em
issi
on
s
and
to
en
able
ad
apta
tio
n t
o
chan
ge
s in
clim
ate
, esp
eci
ally
fro
m e
xtre
me
we
ath
er-
rela
ted
haz
ard
s, t
o m
inim
ize
har
m, a
nd
max
imiz
e p
ote
nti
al o
pp
ort
un
itie
s.
Wit
ho
ut
app
rop
riat
e in
terv
en
tio
ns
and
ad
apta
tio
n, t
he
co
nse
qu
en
ces
of
clim
ate
ch
ang
e a
nd
incr
eas
ed
clim
ate
var
iab
ility
an
d u
nce
rtai
nty
may
lead
to
hig
he
r lo
sse
s an
d
asso
ciat
ed
pre
miu
m in
cre
ase
s.
Fo
r e
xam
ple
, a R
isk
Man
age
me
nt
So
luti
on
s (R
MS
) an
d L
loyd
’s r
ep
ort
(20
07
) in
dic
ate
d t
hat
ris
es
in s
ea
lev
els
by
20
30
co
uld
lead
to
a
do
ub
ling
of
ave
rag
e a
nn
ual
loss
es
fro
m s
torm
su
rge
fo
r p
rop
ert
ies
in t
he
mo
st e
xpo
sed
co
asta
l are
as
and
aro
un
d a
10
-20
% in
cre
ase
in
loss
es
that
occ
ur,
on
av
era
ge
, on
ce
in e
ve
ry 2
00
ye
ars.
Re
sear
ch b
y th
e A
sso
ciat
ion
of
Bri
tish
In
sure
rs (
AB
I) in
20
05
als
o
sug
ge
ste
d t
hat
wit
h a
6%
incr
eas
e
in w
ind
sp
ee
ds,
an
nu
al lo
sse
s fr
om
hu
rric
ane
dam
age
to
cu
rre
nt
U.S
.
pro
pe
rtie
s w
ou
ld r
ise
fro
m a
rou
nd
$5
.5 b
illio
n t
o $
9.5
bill
ion
, an
d
1-i
n-2
50
-ye
ar lo
sse
s fr
om
$8
5
bill
ion
to
$1
50
bill
ion
. Su
ch in
cre
ase
s
in u
nce
rtai
nty
, exp
ect
ed
loss
es,
an
d
inte
rde
pe
nd
en
cie
s b
etw
ee
n c
limat
e
risk
s as
a r
esu
lt o
f cl
imat
e c
han
ge
may
hav
e p
rofo
un
d c
on
seq
ue
nce
s
for
the
fu
ture
aff
ord
abili
ty a
nd
avai
lab
ility
of
cove
rag
e.
Wh
ile t
he
ind
ust
rial
ep
ice
nte
r o
f
the
se is
sue
s m
ay li
e w
ith
in t
he
insu
ran
ce a
nd
re
insu
ran
ce in
du
stry
,
the
ir n
atu
re r
en
de
rs t
he
m p
art
of
a w
ide
r p
ub
lic, e
con
om
ic a
nd
po
litic
al d
isco
urs
e. T
he
sh
arin
g o
f
risk
am
on
g p
op
ula
tio
ns
at lo
cal a
nd
glo
bal
sca
les,
via
pu
blic
an
d p
riv
ate
me
chan
ism
s is
a s
ub
ject
of
inte
nse
focu
s an
d d
eb
ate
wit
h im
plic
atio
ns
for
all o
f u
s w
ith
in s
cie
nce
an
d r
isk
man
age
me
nt
com
mu
nit
ies.
Me
anw
hile
, th
e in
cre
asin
g f
ocu
s o
n
sust
ain
able
de
ve
lop
me
nt/
gro
wth
wit
hin
pu
blic
po
licy
inst
itu
tio
ns
is d
riv
en
par
tly
by
con
cern
s o
ve
r
en
vir
on
me
nt/
clim
ate
ch
ang
e,
and
mo
re r
ece
ntl
y th
e f
inan
cial
cris
is. I
ncr
eas
ing
ly r
e/i
nsu
ran
ce
solu
tio
ns
are
be
ing
vie
we
d a
s a
lead
ing
ve
hic
le in
re
spo
nse
to
th
ese
wid
er
chal
len
ge
s in
nat
ion
al a
nd
inte
rnat
ion
al s
oci
ety
.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Tom
Kn
uts
on
, Re
sear
ch
Me
teo
rolo
gis
t, G
eo
ph
ysic
al
Flu
id D
ynam
ics
Lab
ora
tory
in
Pri
nce
ton
, Ne
w J
ers
ey
Jam
es
Do
ne
, Pro
ject
Sci
en
tist
,
Nat
ion
al C
en
ter
for
Atm
osp
he
ric
Re
sear
ch
Pe
ter
Dai
ley,
Dir
ect
or,
Atm
osp
he
ric
Sci
en
ce,
AIR
– W
orl
dw
ide
Mat
t H
ud
dle
sto
n, P
rin
cip
al
Co
nsu
ltan
t in
Clim
ate
Ch
ang
e,
UK
Me
t O
ffic
e
Ho
war
d K
un
reu
the
r,
Co
-Dir
ect
or,
Wh
arto
n R
isk
Man
age
me
nt
and
De
cisi
on
Pro
cess
es
Ce
nte
r
Mar
yam
Go
lnar
agh
i, C
hie
f
of
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Re
du
ctio
n
Pro
gra
m, W
orl
d M
ete
oro
log
ical
Org
aniz
atio
n (
WM
O)
In r
ece
nt
year
s, t
he
insu
ran
ce
ind
ust
ry’s
clo
ser
colla
bo
rati
on
wit
h a
cad
em
ic a
nd
pu
blic
sci
en
ce
com
mu
nit
ies,
co
up
led
wit
h
adv
ance
s in
hig
h r
eso
luti
on
clim
ate
mo
de
ling
, hav
e d
ee
pe
ne
d
and
bro
ade
ne
d o
ur
ind
ust
ry’s
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
the
ris
ks li
nke
d t
o
ext
rem
e e
ve
nts
.
Incr
eas
ing
ly, t
he
me
tho
ds
and
pri
nci
ple
s u
sed
to
ev
alu
ate
an
d
calc
ula
te t
he
ris
ks o
f n
atu
ral
cata
stro
ph
es
are
be
ing
em
plo
yed
to u
nd
ers
tan
d o
ur
exp
osu
re t
o
man
mad
e d
isas
ters
, th
e m
elt
do
wn
of
fin
anci
al m
arke
ts, a
nd
oth
er
syst
em
ic r
isks
. All
the
se a
nal
yse
s
are
no
w b
ein
g c
on
du
cte
d in
an
incr
eas
ing
ly u
nif
ied
“m
od
ele
d w
orl
d.”
Th
e C
limat
e M
od
elin
g s
ess
ion
at
the
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k co
nfe
ren
ce
exe
mp
lifie
d t
he
gro
win
g in
teg
rati
on
of
clim
ate
an
d e
con
om
ic m
od
elin
g
and
th
e c
olla
bo
rati
on
be
twe
en
insu
ran
ce a
nd
pu
blic
sci
en
ce
com
mu
nit
ies.
Tom
Kn
uts
on
of
the
Nat
ion
al O
cean
ic
and
Atm
osp
he
ric
Ad
min
istr
atio
n’s
(NO
AA
) G
eo
ph
ysic
al F
luid
Dyn
amic
s
Lab
ora
tory
(G
FD
L)
and
Jam
es
Do
ne
of
the
Nat
ion
al C
en
ter
for
Atm
osp
he
ric
Re
sear
ch (
NC
AR
)
rep
rese
nte
d t
wo
of
Am
eri
ca’s
lead
ing
clim
ate
an
d w
eat
he
r
mo
de
ling
inst
itu
tio
ns
wh
ich
are
acti
vely
en
gag
ed
wit
h t
he
insu
ran
ce
sect
or
to h
elp
est
imat
e h
azar
ds
and
ach
ieve
a b
ett
er
gra
sp o
f re
sult
ing
imp
acts
, ris
ks, a
nd
loss
es.
Me
anw
hile
, Mat
t H
ud
dle
sto
n o
f
the
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m M
et
Off
ice
,
ano
the
r le
adin
g c
limat
e m
od
elin
g
inst
itu
tio
n, i
llust
rate
d h
ow
sim
ilar
mo
de
ls c
an b
e a
pp
lied
to
op
po
rtu
nit
ies
to f
ore
cast
clim
ate
reg
ime
s in
exp
ose
d r
eg
ion
s m
on
ths
and
se
aso
ns
ahe
ad.
Ov
er
the
last
20
ye
ars,
th
e
insu
ran
ce in
du
stry
’s e
ffe
ctiv
e
inte
gra
tio
n o
f sc
ien
ce h
as b
ee
n
en
able
d, i
n la
rge
me
asu
re, b
y
spe
cial
ist
firm
s— c
atas
tro
ph
e
risk
mo
de
ling
co
mp
anie
s kn
ow
n
as “
cat
mo
de
lers
.” P
ete
Dai
ley
of
AIR
Wo
rld
wid
e C
orp
ora
tio
n—
on
e
of
the
se f
irm
s—e
xpla
ine
d h
ow
hig
h r
eso
luti
on
clim
ate
mo
de
ling
is in
flu
en
cin
g t
he
fu
ture
dir
ect
ion
of
Cat
astr
op
he
mo
de
ling
an
d t
he
ind
ust
ry it
se
rve
s.
Th
e f
inal
tw
o s
pe
ake
rs il
lust
rate
d
ho
w t
he
se a
pp
roac
he
s ar
e h
avin
g
wid
er
imp
act.
Ho
war
d K
un
reu
the
r
of
the
Wh
arto
n S
cho
ol a
t th
e
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f P
en
nsy
lvan
ia is
at
the
fo
refr
on
t o
f in
corp
ora
tin
g
clim
ate
mo
de
ling
in e
con
om
ic
and
pu
blic
po
licy
de
cisi
on
mak
ing
aro
un
d m
anag
ing
ext
rem
e e
ve
nts
.
Mar
yam
Go
lnar
agh
i, C
hie
f o
f
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Re
du
ctio
n a
t th
e
Wo
rld
Me
teo
rolo
gic
al O
rgan
izat
ion
,
com
ple
ted
th
e s
ess
ion
wit
h f
urt
he
r
de
tails
of
the
WM
O’s
fra
me
wo
rk f
or
Clim
ate
Se
rvic
es
and
de
scri
be
d h
ow
eff
ect
ive
inte
rve
nti
on
s to
man
age
cou
ntr
y ri
sk t
o n
atu
ral d
isas
ters
wo
uld
re
qu
ire
a f
ar g
reat
er
lev
el o
f in
teg
rati
on
be
twe
en
pu
blic
, sci
en
tifi
c, a
nd
fin
anci
al
Su
mm
ma
ry o
f th
e c
urr
en
t st
ate
of
pra
cti
ce
S
imu
lati
on
ap
pro
ach
is k
ey
to u
nd
ers
tan
din
g r
isk
on
a h
olis
tic
bas
is.
S
imu
lati
on
of
real
wo
rld
sys
tem
s h
ave
co
me
a lo
ng
way
sin
ce t
he
daw
n o
f ca
tast
rop
he
mo
de
ling
in t
he
late
19
80
s.
L
oss
val
idat
ion
has
imp
rov
ed
wit
h a
dd
itio
nal
, mo
re d
eta
iled
exp
eri
en
ce d
ata.
B
ett
er
reco
gn
itio
n a
nd
co
mm
un
icat
ion
of
un
cert
ain
ty in
mo
de
ling
re
sult
s.
O
ccas
ion
al r
elia
nce
on
sh
ort
-te
rm h
isto
ry t
o e
val
uat
e r
isk
and
re
lian
ce o
n a
ve
rag
es.
So
me
pre
limin
ary
fin
din
gs
L
loyd
’s o
f L
on
do
n (
20
08
) in
co
nju
nct
ion
wit
h R
isk
Man
age
me
nt
So
luti
on
s in
dic
ate
d t
hat
ris
k fr
om
sea
lev
el r
ise
co
uld
do
ub
le t
he
av
era
ge
an
nu
al lo
sse
s fr
om
sto
rm s
urg
e b
y 2
03
0.
A
20
05
stu
dy
by
the
Ass
oci
atio
n o
f B
riti
sh I
nsu
rers
(A
BI)
co
ncl
ud
ed
th
at lo
sse
s fr
om
hu
rric
ane
s w
ith
a 1
in 2
00
ch
ance
of
occ
urr
ing
wo
uld
incr
eas
e f
rom
$8
5 b
illio
n t
o $
15
0 b
illio
n b
ase
d o
n e
xist
ing
pro
pe
rtie
s.
R
ole
of
adap
tati
on
me
asu
res:
Llo
yd’s
stu
dy
sho
we
d t
hat
ad
apta
tio
n c
ou
ld r
ed
uce
an
nu
al lo
sse
s fr
om
sto
rm s
urg
e f
or
pro
pe
rtie
s in
hig
h-c
oas
tal c
om
mu
nit
ies
in t
he
20
30
s to
be
low
to
day
’s le
ve
ls. (
D1
< D
).
Re
fere
nce
sA
sso
ciat
ion
oif
Bri
tish
In
sure
rs, 2
00
5. F
inan
cial
Ris
ks o
f C
limat
e C
han
ge
. Lo
nd
on
: Ass
oci
atio
n o
f B
riti
sh I
nsu
rers
.
Llo
yd’s
of
Lo
nd
on
, 20
08
. Co
asta
l Co
mm
un
itie
s an
d C
limat
e C
han
ge
: Mai
nta
inin
g F
utu
re I
nsu
rab
ility
. ww
w.ll
oyd
s.co
m.
49
48
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mR
isk
Mo
de
ling
Be
yo
nd
In
sura
nce
In o
rde
r to
eff
ect
ive
ly m
anag
e it
s
cata
stro
ph
e r
isk,
th
e s
tate
mu
st
firs
t p
reci
sely
ide
nti
fy w
hat
its
cata
stro
ph
e e
xpo
sure
is. O
nly
th
en
can
a c
om
pre
he
nsi
ve
ap
pro
ach
to
cata
stro
ph
e r
isk
man
age
me
nt
be
de
vis
ed
to
mit
igat
e t
he
so
cial
an
d
eco
no
mic
co
sts
of
cata
stro
ph
e.
Th
e e
xpo
sure
of
the
sta
te is
in
som
e w
ays
sim
ilar
to t
hat
of
insu
ran
ce c
om
pan
ies
and
in o
the
r
way
s n
ota
bly
dis
tin
ct. A
lth
ou
gh
pro
bab
ilist
ic m
od
els
hav
e b
ee
n
em
plo
yed
by
insu
ran
ce c
om
pan
ies
for
ov
er
two
de
cad
es,
th
eir
app
licat
ion
to
war
ds
anal
yzin
g t
he
cata
stro
ph
e e
xpo
sure
of
the
sta
te
is s
till
in it
s yo
uth
. As
cata
stro
ph
es
off
er
con
tin
uo
us
rem
ind
ers
of
the
stat
e’s
exp
osu
re, i
t is
wo
rth
wh
ile t
o
ask
wh
eth
er
risk
mo
de
ling
can
be
mo
ve
d b
eyo
nd
insu
ran
ce. C
an r
isk
mo
de
ling
be
use
d t
o a
nal
yze
th
e
cata
stro
ph
e e
xpo
sure
of
the
sta
te?
If s
o, h
ow
can
th
is t
ech
no
log
y b
e
app
lied
to
th
e u
niq
ue
po
siti
on
of
the
stat
e?
To a
dd
ress
th
ese
qu
est
ion
s
and
oth
ers
, we
mu
st c
on
sid
er
the
ir a
nte
ced
en
ts. A
sta
rtin
g
po
int
for
dis
cuss
ion
is—
wh
at is
the
cat
astr
op
he
exp
osu
re o
f
the
sta
te?
Wh
en
fo
rmu
lati
ng
a
cata
stro
ph
e r
isk
man
age
me
nt
stra
teg
y, w
hat
sh
ou
ld t
he
sta
te
incl
ud
e a
nd
exc
lud
e w
he
n d
efi
nin
g
its
cata
stro
ph
e e
xpo
sure
? In
par
ticu
lar,
wh
at is
th
e n
exu
s
be
twe
en
th
e s
tate
an
d t
he
pri
vat
e
Hu
rric
an
e A
nd
rew
is o
fte
n r
efe
rre
d t
o a
s th
e w
ate
rsh
ed
e
ve
nt
tha
t b
rou
gh
t c
ata
stro
ph
e r
isk
mo
de
ling
into
th
e
ma
inst
rea
m w
ith
in t
he
insu
ran
ce
se
cto
r.
sect
or?
Wh
at e
xpo
sure
do
th
e s
tate
and
th
e p
riv
ate
se
cto
r as
sum
e t
he
oth
er
will
be
ar?
Hu
rric
ane
An
dre
w is
oft
en
re
ferr
ed
to a
s th
e w
ate
rsh
ed
ev
en
t th
at
bro
ug
ht
cata
stro
ph
e r
isk
mo
de
ling
into
th
e m
ain
stre
am w
ith
in t
he
insu
ran
ce s
ect
or.
Se
ve
ral p
rom
ine
nt
exa
mp
les
of
the
sta
te a
pp
lyin
g r
isk
mo
de
ling
exi
st, y
et
the
pra
ctic
e
rem
ain
s fa
r fr
om
wid
esp
read
.
Wh
at o
bst
acle
s n
ee
d t
o b
e
ov
erc
om
e in
ord
er
to e
ffe
ctiv
ely
mo
ve
cat
astr
op
he
ris
k m
od
elin
g
be
yon
d in
sura
nce
? Is
th
e c
reat
ion
of
pu
blic
go
od
s a
key
ste
p t
hat
will
allo
w s
tate
to
em
plo
y ri
sk
mo
de
ling
to
an
alyz
e it
s ca
tast
rop
he
exp
osu
re?
Wh
at a
re t
he
su
pp
ly
sid
e a
nd
de
man
d s
ide
co
nst
rain
ts
that
hin
de
r th
e u
se o
f ri
sk m
od
elin
g
colle
ctio
n o
f e
xpo
sure
dat
a fa
ste
r
and
mo
re c
ost
-eff
icie
nt,
ad
dit
ion
al
info
rmat
ion
may
be
re
qu
ire
d t
o
de
ve
lop
a r
ob
ust
dat
abas
e t
hat
can
be
use
d f
or
cata
stro
ph
e r
isk
mo
de
ling
. F
or
exa
mp
le, t
he
use
of
ne
we
r te
chn
olo
gie
s m
ay r
ed
uce
the
tim
e t
o c
om
pile
a d
atab
ase
an
d
yie
ld p
reci
se d
ata
on
th
e lo
cati
on
of
asse
ts.
Th
is in
form
atio
n is
val
uab
le,
bu
t ad
dit
ion
al d
ata
is n
ece
ssar
y
such
as
the
co
nst
ruct
ion
typ
e,
occ
up
ancy
, an
d r
ep
lace
me
nt
val
ue
of
the
str
uct
ure
, wh
ich
may
no
t
be
eas
ily o
bta
ine
d f
rom
a r
em
ote
colle
ctio
n p
roce
ss.
As
par
t o
f it
s ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t
eff
ort
s, C
ost
a R
ica
has
ide
nti
fie
d
the
ne
ed
fo
r an
exp
osu
re d
atab
ase
.
Th
e d
ev
elo
pm
en
t o
f an
exp
osu
re
dat
abas
e o
f st
ate
ass
ets
will
hav
e
imp
ort
ant
do
wn
stre
am b
en
efi
ts f
or
mo
re p
reci
se r
isk
mo
de
ling
re
sult
s
wh
ich
can
, in
tu
rn, f
acili
tate
ris
k
tran
sfe
r m
ech
anis
ms.
Ev
ide
nce
fro
m M
exi
co u
nd
ers
core
s th
e
val
ue
of
a d
atab
ase
of
go
ve
rnm
en
t
asse
ts.
Th
e g
ov
ern
me
nt
of
Me
xico
has
inv
est
ed
re
sou
rce
s to
co
mp
ile
a co
mp
reh
en
siv
e d
atab
ase
of
pu
blic
se
cto
r as
sets
. T
he
dat
abas
e
con
tain
s d
eta
iled
info
rmat
ion
on
go
ve
rnm
en
t as
sets
su
ch a
s sc
ho
ols
,
ho
spit
als,
ro
ads,
bri
dg
es,
dam
s,
and
pu
blic
se
cto
r h
ou
sin
g.
Th
e
dat
abas
e a
llow
s M
exi
co t
o a
nal
yze
its
risk
pro
file
fo
r a
var
iety
of
pe
rils
,
incl
ud
ing
hu
rric
ane
s, e
arth
qu
ake
s,
and
flo
od
s.
by
the
sta
te?
Th
e f
ocu
s o
f th
e
con
fere
nce
se
ssio
n w
as t
o a
dd
ress
the
se q
ue
stio
ns.
So
me
of
the
dis
cuss
ion
th
em
es
that
em
erg
ed
are
su
mm
ariz
ed
be
low
.
Mo
vin
g r
isk
mo
de
ling
b
ey
on
d in
sura
nc
e:
exp
osu
re d
ata
In o
rde
r to
mo
ve
ris
k m
od
elin
g
be
yon
d in
sura
nce
, it
is c
lear
som
e c
hal
len
ge
s re
mai
n.
On
e
chal
len
ge
is t
he
co
mp
ilati
on
of
a d
eta
iled
exp
osu
re d
atab
ase
of
go
ve
rnm
en
t as
sets
. A
lth
ou
gh
ne
w t
ech
no
log
ies
are
mak
ing
th
e
Ris
k M
od
elin
g
Be
yo
nd
In
sura
nc
e:
An
aly
zin
g t
he
C
ata
stro
ph
e E
xpo
sure
o
f th
e S
tate
Stu
art
Mill
er
Se
nio
r R
isk
Co
nsu
ltan
t A
IR W
orl
dw
ide
Photo: © Solarseven | Dreamstime.com
48
Go
ve
rnm
en
ts
be
ar
sig
nif
ica
nt
exp
osu
re
to
na
tura
l c
ata
stro
ph
es.
Th
ese
ev
en
ts c
an
exa
ct
up
on
th
e s
tate
a
ra
ng
e o
f so
cia
l a
nd
ec
on
om
ic c
ost
s. S
oc
ial
co
sts
ma
y
inc
lud
e
de
ath
, d
ise
ase
, h
om
ele
ssn
ess
, c
ivil
dis
ord
er,
a
nd
th
e d
isru
pti
on
of
pu
blic
se
rvic
es.
Ec
on
om
ic c
ost
s in
clu
de
lost
ec
on
om
ic a
cti
vit
y, d
am
ag
ed
infr
ast
ruc
ture
, c
ost
s o
f re
pa
ir
an
d
rec
on
stru
cti
on
, a
nd
p
ote
nti
al
div
ers
ion
of
bu
dg
eta
ry r
eso
urc
es
fro
m o
the
r p
rio
riti
es.
51
50
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mR
isk
Mo
de
ling
Be
yo
nd
In
sura
nce
Cat
astr
op
he
mo
de
ling
can
pla
y an
imp
ort
ant
role
in t
he
se e
ffo
rts
by
asse
ssin
g t
he
fis
cal i
mp
act
of
dis
aste
rs a
nd
qu
anti
fyin
g
the
co
nti
ng
en
t lia
bili
ty o
f th
e
stat
e.
Th
is in
form
atio
n is
use
ful
in d
esi
gn
ing
an
d f
acili
tati
ng
ris
k
tran
sfe
r to
th
e p
riv
ate
se
cto
r. T
he
resu
lts
of
the
ris
k an
alys
es
can
be
cre
dib
ly p
rese
nte
d t
o r
isk
tran
sfe
r
par
tne
rs in
th
e p
riv
ate
se
cto
r
and
to
rat
ing
s ag
en
cie
s. U
sin
g
cata
stro
ph
e m
od
els
to
fac
ilita
te
cata
stro
ph
e r
isk
fin
anci
ng
can
also
be
a m
ean
s to
en
gag
e t
he
Min
istr
y o
f F
inan
ce in
dis
aste
r
risk
man
age
me
nt.
Th
e M
inis
try
of
Fin
ance
is u
sual
ly n
ot
inv
olv
ed
in t
he
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t
dia
log
ue
an
d d
isas
ter
risk
fin
anci
ng
bri
ng
s th
e M
inis
try
into
th
at
dia
log
ue
. C
atas
tro
ph
e m
od
elin
g c
an
also
he
lp t
he
go
ve
rnm
en
t in
sura
nce
reg
ula
tor
to b
ett
er
sup
erv
ise
th
e
insu
ran
ce in
du
stry
an
d r
ed
uce
inso
lve
nci
es
afte
r a
larg
e e
ve
nt.
Tod
ay t
he
ap
plic
atio
n o
f ri
sk
mo
de
ling
to
go
ve
rnm
en
ts c
on
tin
ue
s
to g
row
. In
ord
er
to m
axim
ize
th
e
po
ten
tial
ap
plic
atio
ns
of
mo
de
ling
for
sov
ere
ign
s, it
is im
po
rtan
t
to c
on
sid
er
the
exp
osu
re o
f th
e
stat
e.
A s
tart
ing
po
int
is t
he
po
rtfo
lio o
f p
ub
lic s
ect
or
asse
ts,
alth
ou
gh
th
is is
by
no
me
ans
the
limit
of
the
sta
te’s
exp
osu
re.
On
e
me
ans
of
pro
mo
tin
g t
he
use
of
risk
mo
de
ling
is t
he
cre
atio
n o
f
pu
blic
go
od
s, w
he
the
r th
ey
are
for
the
de
ve
lop
me
nt
of
exp
osu
re
dat
abas
es,
mo
de
ls o
r ri
sk a
nal
ytic
s
to s
up
po
rt r
isk
tran
sfe
r. M
od
els
can
als
o b
e le
ve
rag
ed
fo
r d
isas
ter
risk
fin
anci
ng
, wh
ich
can
rai
se
the
imp
ort
ance
of
risk
fin
anci
ng
and
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t
to g
ov
ern
me
nt
min
istr
ies
no
t
trad
itio
nal
ly in
vo
lve
d in
th
ese
are
as.
In o
rde
r to
fu
lly m
ov
e r
isk
mo
de
ling
be
yon
d in
sura
nce
gro
wth
on
th
e
sup
ply
-sid
e, m
od
els
fo
r n
ew
are
as
and
ne
w p
eri
ls s
ho
uld
be
de
ve
lop
ed
,
and
to
pro
mo
te g
row
th o
n t
he
de
man
d-s
ide
so
ve
reig
ns
sho
uld
con
tin
ue
to
up
dat
e a
nd
en
han
ce
the
ir c
atas
tro
ph
e r
isk
man
age
me
nt
and
ris
k fi
nan
cin
g s
trat
eg
ies.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Jo
se A
ng
el V
illal
ob
os,
Ge
ne
ral
Man
age
r, A
ctu
ary,
In
stit
uto
Nac
ion
al d
e S
eg
uro
s, C
ost
a R
ica
Oliv
ier
Mah
ul,
Insu
ran
ce f
or
the
Po
or
Pro
gra
m C
oo
rdin
ato
r,
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
Jo
ost
Be
cke
rs, S
en
ior
Ad
vis
or,
De
ltar
es
Tsu
ne
ki H
ori
, Dis
aste
r R
isk
Man
age
me
nt
Sp
eci
alis
t,
Infr
astr
uct
ure
an
d E
nv
iro
nm
en
t
Se
cto
r, I
nte
r-A
me
rica
n
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Ban
k
Ju
an S
ori
ano
, Se
cre
tarí
a d
e
Hac
ien
da
y C
réd
ito
Pú
blic
o
(SH
CP
), M
éxi
co
Photo: © Photos.com
51
Wit
h d
eta
iled
ris
k m
od
elin
g r
esu
lts
avai
lab
le, M
exi
co h
as b
ee
n a
ble
to
stra
teg
ical
ly p
urc
has
e in
sura
nce
cov
era
ge
fro
m t
he
pri
vat
e s
ect
or
for
its
po
rtfo
lio o
f g
ov
ern
me
nt
asse
ts.
Th
e r
ole
of
ca
tast
rop
he
mo
de
ls
as
pu
blic
go
od
s
Cat
astr
op
he
mo
de
ls r
ep
rese
nt
a
sig
nif
ican
t in
ve
stm
en
t, p
arti
cula
rly
for
smal
ler
nat
ion
s w
hic
h a
re
vu
lne
rab
le t
o a
ran
ge
of
dif
fere
nt
haz
ard
s. C
reat
ing
cat
astr
op
he
mo
de
ls o
r m
od
el c
om
po
ne
nts
that
are
pu
blic
go
od
s is
on
e
way
of
bri
ng
ing
th
e b
en
efi
ts o
f
cata
stro
ph
e m
od
elin
g t
o a
wid
er
po
ol o
f u
sers
. P
ub
lic g
oo
ds
also
incl
ud
e r
isk
ind
ice
s su
ch a
s th
e
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Ind
icat
ors
pro
vid
ed
by
the
In
ter-
Am
eri
can
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Ban
k. M
od
els
su
ch a
s th
e G
lob
al
Ear
thq
uak
e M
od
el (
GE
M)
and
the
Ce
ntr
al A
me
rica
Pro
bab
ilist
ic
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t (C
AP
RA
) m
od
els
rep
rese
nt
such
so
luti
on
s. I
n
add
itio
n t
o t
he
se, a
no
the
r
inte
rest
ing
cas
e s
tud
y is
un
de
rway
in t
he
So
uth
Pac
ific
. T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k h
as b
rou
gh
t to
ge
the
r 1
5
So
uth
Pac
ific
isla
nd
s to
par
tici
pat
e
in t
he
Pac
ific
Cat
astr
op
he
Ris
k
Fin
anci
ng
In
itia
tiv
e (
PC
RF
I).
Un
de
r th
is p
rog
ram
, th
e is
lan
d
nat
ion
s w
ill h
ave
acc
ess
no
t o
nly
to c
atas
tro
ph
e r
isk
mo
de
ls, b
ut
also
to
th
e p
oo
led
be
ne
fits
of
risk
fin
anci
ng
. T
he
Wo
rld
Ban
k w
ork
ed
wit
h A
IR W
orl
dw
ide
to
cre
ate
a
mo
de
l fra
me
wo
rk w
hic
h c
an a
nal
yze
dif
fere
nt
op
tio
ns
for
cov
ere
d
cou
ntr
ies
and
pe
rils
. M
em
be
rs
can
exp
lore
co
st-e
ffe
ctiv
e w
ays
of
po
olin
g r
isk
and
se
curi
ng
cata
stro
ph
e c
ov
era
ge
.
Ap
ply
ing
ris
k m
od
elin
g
for
dis
ast
er
risk
fi
na
nc
ing
On
ly a
fra
ctio
n o
f g
lob
al c
atas
tro
ph
e
loss
es
are
insu
red
(F
igu
re 1
) an
d
as p
op
ula
tio
ns
and
ass
ets
gro
w
the
po
ten
tial
fo
r la
rge
loss
es
incr
eas
es.
Go
vern
me
nts
ab
sorb
eco
no
mic
loss
fro
m e
me
rge
ncy
relie
f e
xpe
nse
s, r
eco
nst
ruct
ion
and
lost
eco
no
mic
pro
du
ctio
n, a
nd
taxe
s. P
ost
-fin
anci
ng
so
luti
on
s su
ch
as d
on
or
aid
, bu
dg
et
real
loca
tio
n,
and
bo
rro
win
g a
ll in
cur
risk
s. P
re-
fin
anci
ng
of
dis
aste
rs a
void
s th
ese
risk
s. F
or
exa
mp
le, c
apit
al m
arke
ts
solu
tio
ns
like
Mu
ltiC
at d
o n
ot
incu
r
de
bt.
Co
un
try-
spe
cifi
c ap
pro
ach
es
like
th
ose
of
the
In
ter-
Am
eri
can
De
velo
pm
en
t B
ank
and
th
e W
orl
d
Ban
k p
rop
ose
an
inte
gra
ted
dis
aste
r
risk
fra
me
wo
rk w
hic
h e
mp
has
ize
s
pre
ven
tio
n a
nd
uti
lize
s a
mix
of
risk
tran
sfe
r in
stru
me
nts
.
25
0
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
0
15
0
10
0
50 0
Not
e: L
oss
amou
nts
inde
xed
to 2
00
9
Sou
rce:
Sw
iss
Re,
sig
ma
No
2/2
01
0
Eco
nom
ic lo
ss (g
ran
d to
tal)
Insu
red
loss
(gra
nd
tota
l)
Fig
ure
1. N
atu
ral c
atas
tro
ph
e lo
sse
s in
US
D b
illio
ns
53
52
Su
b-R
eg
ion
al R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
An
on
line
dia
log
ue
pre
ced
ed
the
ple
nar
y se
ssio
n o
f th
e
Un
de
rsta
nd
ing
Ris
k F
oru
m. M
ore
than
60
Go
ve
rnm
en
ts in
clu
din
g
Ind
ia, S
ri L
anka
, Ke
nya
, Ge
org
ia,
and
Mac
ed
on
ia, e
xpe
rts
and
inte
r-g
ov
ern
me
nta
l org
aniz
atio
ns
like
th
e A
fric
an U
nio
n a
nd
Wo
rld
Ban
k, U
nit
ed
Nat
ion
s D
ev
elo
pm
en
t
Pro
gra
m (
UN
DP
), an
d o
the
rs
par
tici
pat
ed
in t
he
on
line
dis
cuss
ion
and
mad
e p
rese
nta
tio
ns
in t
he
ple
nar
y.
Qu
est
ion
s ra
ise
d in
th
e o
nlin
e
sess
ion
incl
ud
ed
ho
w t
o o
bta
in
fisc
al c
om
mit
me
nts
fro
m
eco
no
mic
min
istr
ies
for
inv
est
ing
in r
isk
red
uct
ion
, ho
w t
o t
rad
e o
ff
be
twe
en
qu
ick
risk
ass
ess
me
nts
ve
rsu
s m
ore
co
stly
an
d d
eta
iled
mic
ro-r
isk
asse
ssm
en
t, a
nd
ho
w t
o
en
sure
co
op
era
tio
n a
cro
ss b
ord
ers
reg
ard
ing
tra
ns-
bo
rde
r ri
sks
like
Gla
cial
Lak
e O
utb
urs
t F
loo
ds
(GL
OF
).
Re
cen
t e
vid
en
ce f
rom
ear
thq
uak
es
in H
aiti
, Ph
ilip
pin
es,
an
d C
hin
a
con
tin
ue
s to
sh
ow
th
at in
mo
st
case
s co
un
trie
s ar
e c
aug
ht
off
gu
ard
wh
en
a d
isas
ter
stri
kes.
Cap
acit
y to
en
gag
e a
nd
su
stai
n
po
litic
al s
up
po
rt f
or
mai
nst
ream
ing
of
DR
R in
man
y co
un
trie
s
see
ms
to b
e c
yclic
al a
t th
e b
est
,
and
fre
qu
en
tly
dri
ve
n b
y th
e
occ
urr
en
ce o
f la
rge
-sca
le d
isas
ters
that
re
qu
ire
s a
vis
ible
po
litic
al
resp
on
se. Q
uan
tify
ing
ris
k le
ve
ls
by
ide
nti
fyin
g p
ote
nti
al lo
ss t
o
Gro
ss D
om
est
ic P
rod
uct
(G
DP
),
infr
astr
uct
ure
, an
d li
ve
liho
od
s
for
var
iou
s fu
ture
haz
ard
s at
th
e
reg
ion
al, s
ub
-re
gio
nal
, co
un
try,
an
d
loca
l le
ve
ls c
an h
elp
to
mai
nta
in
po
litic
al m
om
en
tum
fo
r re
du
cin
g
dis
aste
r im
pac
ts. I
t is
imp
ort
ant
to
pu
t in
pla
ce e
ffe
ctiv
e D
RR
po
licie
s
that
are
lin
ked
to
su
stai
nab
le
de
ve
lop
me
nt
and
po
ve
rty
red
uct
ion
, an
d t
hat
go
ve
rnm
en
t
inst
itu
tio
ns
and
aca
de
mia
, as
we
ll as
the
pri
vat
e s
ect
or
and
civ
il so
cie
ty,
par
tici
pat
e in
th
e d
ev
elo
pm
en
t
of
tho
se p
olic
ies.
It
is e
qu
ally
imp
ort
ant
that
we
ll-in
form
ed
de
cisi
on
s ar
e m
ade
fo
r in
ve
stm
en
ts
in D
RR
.
Dis
ast
er
risk
a
sse
ssm
en
t a
t re
gio
na
l, su
b-r
eg
ion
al,
an
d c
ou
ntr
y le
ve
ls
Dis
aste
rs c
an h
ave
en
orm
ou
s
soci
o-e
con
om
ic c
on
seq
ue
nce
s.
Th
e q
uan
tita
tiv
e e
con
om
ic
risk
ass
ess
me
nt
pe
rfo
rme
d in
the
se s
tud
ies
con
firm
s th
at a
cata
stro
ph
ic e
ve
nt
wit
h a
20
0-
year
re
turn
pe
rio
d (
0.5
pe
r ce
nt
An
nu
al E
xce
ed
ance
Pro
bab
ility
(AE
P)
wo
uld
hav
e a
maj
or
imp
act
on
de
ve
lop
ing
co
un
trie
s’ e
con
om
ies,
wh
ich
are
alr
ead
y fr
agile
. To
gau
ge
the
po
ten
tial
eco
no
mic
imp
act,
th
e
Eco
no
mic
Vu
lne
rab
ility
(E
V)
ran
kin
g
of
eac
h c
ou
ntr
y h
as b
ee
n e
stim
ate
d
in t
erm
s o
f lik
ely
eco
no
mic
loss
es
that
an
ev
en
t w
ith
a 2
00
-ye
ar
retu
rn p
eri
od
wo
uld
cau
se a
s a
pe
rce
nta
ge
of
that
co
un
try’
s G
DP.
As
an e
xam
ple
, Fig
ure
s 1
an
d 2
sho
w t
he
co
mp
aris
on
of
such
a
cata
stro
ph
ic e
ve
nt
in C
en
tral
Asi
a
and
Cau
casu
s, a
nd
So
uth
Asi
a
reg
ion
s. I
n C
en
tral
Asi
a (F
igu
re 1
), it
can
eas
ily b
e s
ee
n t
hat
a
bu
ildin
g a
nd
tra
nsp
ort
atio
n.
the
incr
eas
e c
an b
e u
p t
o 3
tim
es—
cau
sin
g n
ear
ly 9
5%
ru
no
ff.
cau
ses
flo
od
ing
.
Pu
ne
In
dia
: In
cre
ase
d f
loo
din
g is
a r
esu
lt o
f u
rba
niz
ati
on
Ye
ar 2
00
2
Ye
ar 2
00
8
Su
b-R
eg
ion
al R
isk
A
sse
ssm
en
ts:
A T
oo
l fo
r N
ati
on
al
Inv
est
me
nt
Pla
nn
ing
Su
shil
Gu
pta
G
en
era
l Man
age
r, R
isk
Mo
de
ling
an
d I
nsu
ran
ceR
isk
Man
age
me
nt
So
luti
on
In
dia
(R
MS
I)
& Pra
ve
en
Par
de
shi
He
ad, R
eg
ion
al O
ffic
es
Co
-ord
inat
ion
an
d S
up
po
rt S
ect
ion
Un
ite
d N
atio
ns
Inte
rnat
ion
al S
trat
eg
y fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n (
UN
/IS
DR
) S
ecr
eta
riat
Ris
k a
sse
ssm
en
ts o
ffe
r g
oo
d o
pp
ort
un
itie
s to
cre
ate
lon
g-t
erm
su
sta
ina
ble
in
ve
stm
en
t p
lan
s th
at
ca
n a
dd
ress
co
un
trie
s’ v
uln
era
bili
tie
s to
na
tura
l h
aza
rds,
bu
t c
are
mu
st b
e t
ak
en
to
ad
just
me
tho
do
log
ies
to s
pe
cif
ic n
ee
ds,
a
nd
co
st a
nd
tim
elin
ess
are
cri
tic
al
fac
tors
. T
he
refo
re,
bo
th d
eta
iled
an
d
qu
ick
ass
ess
me
nts
ca
n b
ec
om
e v
alu
ab
le t
oo
ls w
he
n li
nk
ed
to
ad
vo
ca
cy
an
d
use
of
ne
w t
ec
hn
olo
gic
al
de
ve
lop
me
nts
in
mo
de
ling
an
d d
ec
isio
n-m
ak
ing
to
ols
. Q
uic
k a
nd
ba
sic
ass
ess
me
nts
are
va
lua
ble
fo
r fo
cu
sin
g h
igh
-le
ve
l p
olit
ica
l att
en
tio
n o
n d
isa
ste
r re
silie
nc
e, w
hile
de
taile
d m
icro
-ass
ess
me
nts
a
re r
ele
va
nt
for
op
era
tio
na
l d
ec
isio
ns
an
d d
esi
gn
ing
in
fra
stru
ctu
re a
nd
la
nd
-use
pla
ns
at
the
lo
ca
l le
ve
l. U
sin
g r
isk
ass
ess
me
nts
as
a t
oo
l fo
r n
ati
on
al
inv
est
me
nt
pla
nn
ing
ca
n h
elp
to
bri
ng
to
ge
the
r e
sse
nti
al
ac
tors
a
nd
th
us
en
sure
th
e m
uc
h n
ee
de
d m
ult
i-se
cto
r p
art
icip
ati
on
of
go
ve
rnm
en
t in
stit
uti
on
s a
nd
ac
ad
em
ia, a
s w
ell
as
pri
va
te s
ec
tor
an
d c
ivil
soc
iety
. Th
is is
im
po
rta
nt
to s
up
po
rt t
he
fo
rmu
lati
on
an
d a
pp
lica
tio
n o
f e
ffe
cti
ve
dis
ast
er
risk
re
du
cti
on
(D
RR
) p
olic
ies
tha
t a
re l
ink
ed
to
su
sta
ina
ble
de
ve
lop
me
nt
an
d p
ov
ert
y r
ed
uc
tio
n.
55
54
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mS
ub
-Re
gio
nal
Ris
k A
sse
ssm
en
t
Le
ve
l 1: A
n a
nal
ysis
bas
ed
on
ly
on
his
tori
cal r
eco
rds
sho
uld
be
pe
rfo
rme
d t
o in
clu
de
an
acc
ura
te
and
ro
bu
st d
atas
et
of
reg
ion
al
dis
aste
rs. .
Le
ve
l 2: W
ors
t-ca
se s
cen
ario
s
sho
uld
be
co
nsi
de
red
fo
r h
igh
ly
po
pu
late
d c
itie
s. T
his
an
alys
is w
ou
ld
pro
vid
e a
re
aso
nab
le q
uan
tifi
cati
on
of
loss
, giv
en
th
e o
ccu
rre
nce
of
a
par
ticu
lar
dis
aste
r sc
en
ario
. Th
e
un
cert
ain
ty a
rou
nd
th
e r
isk
cou
ld
the
n b
e b
rack
ete
d b
y sc
ien
tifi
cally
est
imat
ing
th
e r
ang
e o
f p
rob
abili
ty
of
occ
urr
en
ce o
f su
ch s
cen
ario
s.
Su
ch w
ors
t-ca
se s
cen
ario
stu
die
s
can
be
use
d in
pre
par
atio
n o
f ci
ty-
spe
cifi
c D
isas
ter
Man
age
me
nt
Pla
ns
(DM
Ps)
.
Le
ve
l 3: F
ully
pro
bab
ilist
ic a
nal
ysis
con
tain
ing
all
the
ele
me
nts
of
stan
dar
d r
isk
anal
ysis
sh
ou
ld b
e
pe
rfo
rme
d f
or
the
haz
ard
s an
d
reg
ion
s id
en
tifi
ed
as
hig
h r
isk
in
lev
els
1 a
nd
2.
Re
co
mm
en
da
tio
ns
to
po
licy
ma
ke
rs
Pro
mo
te r
eg
ion
al c
oo
pe
rati
on
:
Th
e tr
ans-
bou
nd
ary
nat
ure
of
som
e
clim
ate
and
ext
rem
e w
eath
er in
du
ced
dis
aste
rs s
uch
as
GL
OF
in H
imal
ayas
or t
he
An
des
, ear
thq
uak
es (i
ncl
ud
ing
Tsu
nam
i), c
yclo
ne,
flo
od, a
nd
dro
ug
ht,
req
uir
e su
b-r
egio
nal
ris
k as
sess
men
t
wit
h d
ata-
inte
rop
erab
ility
, so
that
cros
s-b
ord
er c
oop
erat
ion
in s
har
ing
and
mon
itor
ing
haz
ard
leve
ls a
nd
dev
elop
ing
ear
ly w
arn
ing
pro
toco
ls
can
be
pro
mot
ed (F
igu
re 3
). T
he
wor
k
un
der
take
n b
y th
e U
nit
ed N
atio
ns
Inte
rnat
ion
al S
trat
egy
for
Dis
aste
r
Red
uct
ion
(UN
IS
DR
) alo
ng
wit
h
the
Wor
ld B
ank
in s
tren
gth
enin
g
the
cap
acit
y of
reg
ion
al
inte
rgov
ern
men
tal o
rgan
izat
ion
s
like
the
Sou
th A
sian
Ass
ocia
tion
For
Reg
ion
al C
oop
erat
ion
(SA
AR
C),
the
Ass
ocia
tion
of
Sou
thea
st A
sian
Nat
ion
s (A
SE
AN
), th
e P
acif
ic I
slan
ds
Ap
plie
d G
eosc
ien
ce C
omm
issi
on
(SO
PAC
) an
d f
acili
tati
ng
join
t re
gio
nal
risk
ass
essm
ents
for
iden
tify
ing
pot
enti
al G
LO
Fs
in t
he
Him
alay
as
wit
h t
he
In
tern
atio
nal
Cen
tre
for
Inte
gra
ted
Mou
nta
in D
evel
opm
ent
(CIM
OD
) nee
ds
to b
e fu
rth
er
stre
ng
then
ed.
Str
en
gth
en
inst
itu
tio
ns:
In
con
jun
ctio
n w
ith
gre
ate
r re
gio
nal
coo
pe
rati
on
, th
e s
tre
ng
the
nin
g
of
rele
van
t in
stit
uti
on
s is
cru
cial
for
de
ve
lop
ing
str
ate
gie
s to
war
ds
haz
ard
s o
f a
tran
s-b
ou
nd
ary
nat
ure
.
De
cen
tral
izin
g t
ho
se in
stit
uti
on
s
and
car
ryin
g o
ut
stre
ng
the
nin
g
acco
rdin
g t
o a
co
mm
on
ly a
cce
pte
d
fram
ew
ork
co
uld
be
a w
ay o
f
max
imiz
ing
th
e p
ote
nti
al b
en
efi
ts o
f
such
en
han
cem
en
ts. B
y co
nsi
de
rin
g
the
ch
arac
teri
stic
s o
f th
e t
err
ain
and
siz
e o
f th
e c
ou
ntr
ies
inv
olv
ed
,
dif
fere
nt
stra
teg
ies
cou
ld b
e
me
rge
d w
ith
th
e d
ev
elo
pm
en
t
pla
nn
ing
pro
cess
to
wo
rk t
ow
ard
s
DR
R.
De
ve
lop
a c
en
tra
lize
d
da
tab
ase
: Im
pro
vin
g a
cce
ss
to in
form
atio
n c
ou
ld e
nh
ance
the
cap
acit
ies
of
all t
he
re
gio
nal
inte
r- g
ov
ern
me
nta
l Dis
aste
r
Ce
nte
rs li
ke t
he
SA
AR
C D
isas
ter
Man
age
me
nt
Ce
nte
r (S
DM
C)
and
SO
PA
C c
ou
ntr
ies.
So
me
cen
tral
izat
ion
an
d c
oo
rdin
atio
n o
f
dat
a g
ath
eri
ng
bo
th w
ith
in a
nd
be
twe
en
co
un
trie
s, p
arti
cula
rly
info
rmat
ion
re
lati
ng
to
ear
thq
uak
es
(incl
ud
ing
tsu
nam
is),
and
oth
er
hyd
ro-m
ete
oro
log
ical
ev
en
ts, c
ou
ld
Fig
ure
3. L
oca
tio
n m
ap s
ho
win
g
reg
ion
al in
ve
nto
ry o
f g
laci
ers
an
d
gla
cie
r la
kes
stu
die
d in
Bh
uta
n,
Ind
ia, N
ep
al, P
akis
tan
, an
d C
hin
a b
y
ICIM
OD
alo
ng
wit
h n
atio
nal
par
tne
rs
(19
99
–20
05
)
cata
stro
ph
ic e
ven
t w
ith
a 2
00
-ye
ars
retu
rn p
eri
od
in T
ajik
ista
n w
ill im
pac
t
cou
ntr
y G
DP
by
21
pe
r ce
nt,
wh
ile
a si
mila
r e
ven
t in
Kyr
gyz
stan
will
imp
act
cou
ntr
y G
DP
by
4.6
pe
r
cen
t. T
hu
s, it
can
be
co
ncl
ud
ed
th
at
Tajik
ista
n is
at
mu
ch h
igh
er
risk
th
an
Kyr
gyz
stan
, an
d s
uch
a c
atas
tro
ph
ic
eve
nt
will
de
rail
the
co
un
try’
s
eco
no
my
and
de
velo
pm
en
t fo
r
seve
ral d
eca
de
s b
ack
and
ag
gra
vate
po
vert
y. A
sim
ilar
com
par
iso
n c
an
be
mad
e f
or
the
So
uth
Asi
a re
gio
n
(Fig
ure
2).
A c
atas
tro
ph
ic e
ven
t
wit
h 2
00
-ye
ars
retu
rn p
eri
od
(0
.5
pe
r ce
nt
AE
P)
will
imp
act
Ind
ia,
Ban
gla
de
sh, a
nd
Ne
pal
GD
P b
y 1
.2,
6.4
, an
d 9
.0 p
erc
en
t, r
esp
ect
ive
ly.
Th
ese
com
par
ison
s al
so p
rove
th
at
larg
e d
evel
opin
g e
con
omie
s, s
uch
as
Ind
ia a
re le
ss s
usc
epti
ble
to
econ
omic
imp
act
of d
isas
ters
th
an s
mal
l
dev
elop
ing
eco
nom
ies
such
as
Nep
al.
Su
ch r
isk
asse
ssm
ent
anal
yses
an
d
com
par
ison
can
als
o h
elp
in c
reat
ing
a d
eep
er a
war
enes
s in
cou
ntr
ies’
fin
anci
ng
an
d p
lan
nin
g m
inis
trie
s of
the
nee
d t
o in
vest
in D
RR
.
Re
co
mm
en
da
tio
n t
o
tec
hn
olo
gy
pro
vid
ers
Est
ab
lish
pa
rtn
ers
hip
s fo
r
risk
an
aly
sis:
Par
tne
rsh
ips
sho
uld
be
est
ablis
he
d t
o p
erf
orm
th
ree
lev
els
of
anal
yse
s in
ord
er
to r
efi
ne
the
re
sult
s o
f ri
sk a
sse
ssm
en
ts.
Th
ese
an
alys
es
sho
uld
fo
cus
firs
t
on
dam
agin
g, q
uic
k o
nse
t d
isas
ters
,
such
as
ear
thq
uak
es,
flo
od
s,
typ
ho
on
s (t
rop
ical
cyc
lon
ic s
torm
s),
and
tsu
nam
is, a
s ap
plic
able
.
Fig
ure
2. L
oss
Po
ten
tial
fo
r 2
00
-ye
ars
retu
rn p
eri
od
(0
.5 p
er
cen
t A
EP
) in
So
uth
Asi
a R
eg
ion
Fig
ure
1. L
oss
Po
ten
tial
fo
r 2
00
ye
ars
retu
rn p
eri
od
(0
.5 p
er
cen
t A
EP
) in
Ce
ntr
al A
sia
and
Cau
casu
s
Afg
han
ista
n
Pak
ista
n
Ind
us
Ind
ia
Ne
pal
Bh
uta
nS
K
Ch
ina
HP
UA
57
56
Su
b-R
eg
ion
al R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
faci
litat
e d
ata
inte
rop
era
bili
ty
for
ear
ly w
arn
ing
an
d h
azar
d
mo
nit
ori
ng
an
d f
ost
er
reg
ion
al
coo
pe
rati
on
on
tra
ns-
bo
rde
r ri
sks.
Ind
ee
d, t
he
pre
sen
ce o
f tr
ans-
bo
un
dar
y zo
ne
s o
f h
igh
se
ism
ic
acti
vit
y an
d r
ive
rs w
ho
se f
low
or
dam
man
age
me
nt
has
a d
ire
ct
imp
act
on
ne
igh
bo
rin
g c
ou
ntr
ies
mak
es
such
co
ord
inat
ion
imp
era
tiv
e.
De
cisi
on
-mak
ing
to
ols
, su
ch a
s
dis
aste
r in
form
atio
n s
har
ing
an
d
com
mu
nic
atio
n n
etw
ork
s sh
ou
ld
be
op
era
ted
at
all l
ev
els
of
dis
aste
r
man
age
me
nt
– fr
om
po
licy
mak
ing
to p
rep
are
dn
ess
, mit
igat
ion
, an
d
resp
on
se a
nd
re
cov
ery
act
ivit
ies.
Wit
h t
he
exc
ep
tio
n o
f e
arth
qu
ake
s,
the
on
set
of
maj
or
haz
ard
s su
ch a
s
flo
od
s ca
n n
orm
ally
be
pre
dic
ted
.
Co
nse
qu
en
tly,
me
asu
res
such
as
pu
blic
ed
uca
tio
n a
nd
ear
ly-w
arn
ing
me
chan
ism
s co
uld
sig
nif
ican
tly
red
uce
th
e n
um
be
r o
f d
eat
hs
and
oth
er
loss
es
cau
sed
by
dis
aste
rs.
Ag
ain
, tra
ns-
bo
un
dar
y co
op
era
tio
n
and
co
ord
inat
ion
co
uld
sig
nif
ican
tly.
Re
co
mm
en
da
tio
n
to n
ati
on
al d
isa
ste
r m
an
ag
em
en
t a
ge
nc
ies
Im
pro
ve
dis
ast
er
risk
ass
ess
me
nt:
Alt
ho
ug
h m
ost
of
the
vu
lne
rab
le c
ou
ntr
ies
hav
e D
MP
s in
pla
ce, t
he
y co
uld
eac
h b
en
efi
t fr
om
gre
ate
r re
fin
em
en
t as
th
e p
lan
s
ten
d t
o la
ck t
he
de
tail
ne
cess
ary
to
refl
ect
gro
un
d r
eal
itie
s. T
his
co
uld
be
eff
icie
ntl
y ac
hie
ve
d t
hro
ug
h
est
ablis
hin
g p
lan
s b
ase
d o
n t
he
kin
d o
f le
ve
l 2 a
nd
lev
el 3
an
alys
is
me
nti
on
ed
in “
Re
com
me
nd
atio
n
to t
ech
no
log
y p
rov
ide
rs”
fro
m
pre
vio
us
pag
e, r
efl
ect
ing
re
alis
tic
sce
nar
ios
and
ass
oci
ate
d r
esp
on
ses.
In a
dd
itio
n, t
he
DM
Ps
cou
ld b
e
inte
gra
ted
into
loca
l de
ve
lop
me
nt
pla
ns,
wh
ich
in t
urn
co
uld
be
fu
rth
er
assi
mila
ted
wit
hin
re
gio
nal
an
d
nat
ion
al p
rog
ram
s. C
arry
ing
ou
t
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
em
en
t ac
tiv
itie
s
wit
hin
a c
om
mo
n f
ram
ew
ork
wo
uld
fac
ilita
te t
he
ir in
teg
rati
on
at t
he
nat
ion
al le
ve
l (in
th
e f
orm
of
nat
ion
al D
MP
) o
r tr
ans-
nat
ion
al
lev
el (
in t
he
fo
rm o
f tr
ans-
nat
ion
al/
reg
ion
al D
MP
).
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Aje
et
Oak
, Urb
an R
isk
Sp
eci
alis
t,
PR
IMO
VE
Co
nsu
ltan
ts, I
nd
ia
Pan
de
Laz
are
vsk
i, N
atio
nal
Co
ord
inat
or
for
Imp
lem
en
tati
on
of
the
Nat
ion
al P
latf
orm
for
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Re
du
ctio
n,
Mac
ed
on
ia
An
il B
hu
shan
Pra
sad
, Se
cre
tary
,
Nat
ion
al D
isas
ter
Man
age
me
nt
Au
tho
rity
(N
DM
A),
Ind
ia
Aky
lbe
k C
hym
yro
v, C
hai
rman
of
the
Bo
ard
, NG
O ‘G
eo
Eco
Ris
k’,
Kyr
gyz
stan
Go
rdo
n O
tie
no
Mu
ga,
Ass
ista
nt
Se
cre
tary
, De
par
tme
nt
of
Dis
aste
r R
ed
uct
ion
, Nat
ion
al
Pla
tfo
rm f
or
Ke
nya
Irm
a G
urg
ulia
ni,
Ch
ief
Sp
eci
alis
t,
Min
istr
y o
f E
nv
iro
nm
en
t
Pro
tect
ion
an
d N
atu
ral
Re
sou
rce
s, G
eo
rgia
Ind
u W
ee
raso
riya
, Dir
ect
or-
Ge
ne
ral,
Pla
nn
ing
, Urb
an
De
ve
lop
me
nt
Au
tho
rity
, Min
istr
y
of
Urb
an D
ev
elo
pm
en
t, S
ri L
anka
Olu
sho
la S
od
eko
, Div
isio
n
for
En
vir
on
me
nt
and
Nat
ura
l
Re
sou
rce
s, A
fric
an U
nio
n
Co
mm
issi
on
, Eth
iop
ia
sate
llite
imag
ery
join
th
e r
ive
r w
ere
ide
nti
fie
d
and
mar
ked
on
bas
e m
ap
hav
e b
ee
n id
en
tifi
ed
an
d
nam
ed
Ide
nti
fy w
ate
rsh
ed
s
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
58
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Th
e C
en
tra
l A
me
ric
a P
rob
ab
ilis
tic
Ris
k A
ss
es
sm
en
t
Om
ar D
. Car
do
na
Civ
il E
ng
ine
er,
Ph
.D.
Re
pre
sen
tati
ve
Co
nso
rtiu
m E
RN
-ALC
AP
RA
Me
asu
rin
g t
he
Th
e C
en
tra
l A
me
ric
a P
rob
ab
ilist
ic R
isk
Ass
ess
me
nt
(CA
PR
A)
init
iati
ve
pro
vid
es
dif
fere
nt
typ
e o
f u
sers
w
ith
to
ols
, c
ap
ab
iliti
es,
in
form
ati
on
, a
nd
d
ata
to
e
va
lua
te d
isa
ste
r ri
sk. T
he
pri
nc
iple
s o
f p
rob
ab
ilist
ic
risk
a
sse
ssm
en
t a
re
ap
plie
d
to
the
a
na
lysi
s o
f e
art
hq
ua
ke
, tsu
na
mi,
hu
rric
an
e, v
olc
an
o, f
loo
ds,
an
d
lan
dsl
ide
ha
zard
s, e
na
blin
g a
co
mm
on
la
ng
ua
ge
to
m
ea
sure
an
d c
om
pa
re r
isk
.
Photo: © Dk1vision | Dreamstime.com
Un
me
asu
rab
le
ww
w.e
ca
pra
.org
59
61
CA
PR
A: M
eas
uri
ng
th
e U
nm
eas
ura
ble
60
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
pro
bab
le m
axim
um
loss
for
an
y g
iven
retu
rn p
erio
d o
r as
an
ave
rag
e an
nu
al
loss
. Sin
ce t
his
ris
k is
qu
anti
fied
acco
rdin
g t
o a
rig
orou
s m
eth
odol
ogy,
use
rs h
ave
a co
mm
on la
ng
uag
e
for
mea
suri
ng
, an
d c
omp
arin
g o
r
agg
reg
atin
g e
xpec
ted
loss
es f
rom
vari
ous
haz
ard
s, e
ven
in t
he
case
of
futu
re c
limat
e ri
sks
asso
ciat
ed w
ith
clim
ate
chan
ge
scen
ario
s.
Op
en
arc
hit
ec
ture
Th
e C
AP
RA
init
iati
ve
has
be
en
bu
ilt w
ith
in a
n o
pe
n a
rch
ite
ctu
re
pla
tfo
rm. A
t th
e d
ata
lev
el,
CA
PR
A
sets
pro
toco
ls, a
cce
ss, a
nd
usa
ge
rig
hts
in o
rde
r to
use
a w
ide
r an
d
rich
er
sou
rce
of
info
rmat
ion
, wh
ich
was
on
ce s
catt
ere
d, i
nac
cess
ible
or
un
reco
rde
d. T
he
arc
hit
ect
ure
of
CA
PR
A is
mo
du
lar,
ext
en
sib
le, a
nd
op
en
so
urc
e, w
hic
h a
llow
s it
to
be
mo
dif
ied
, im
pro
ve
d, a
nd
exp
and
ed
.
Th
is m
ean
s e
xpe
rie
nce
can
be
accu
mu
late
d r
ath
er
than
lost
,
har
ne
ssin
g t
he
co
llect
ive
wo
rk o
f
con
trib
uto
rs. T
he
co
ntr
ibu
tors
allo
w
the
pla
tfo
rm t
o g
row
an
d a
dap
t
wit
h e
ach
ne
w p
rob
lem
cre
atin
g a
‘liv
ing
inst
rum
en
t’ t
hat
exi
sts
in t
he
pu
blic
do
mai
n w
ith
ou
t re
lyin
g o
n
bla
ck-b
ox
mo
de
ls a
nd
av
oid
ing
th
e
pro
ble
ms
of
ve
nd
or
lock
-in
.
Ha
zard
mo
du
les
In t
he
co
nte
xt o
f C
AP
RA
, haz
ard
is d
efi
ne
d a
s a
colle
ctio
n o
f st
o-
chas
tic
sce
nar
ios,
or
ev
en
ts, t
hat
colle
ctiv
ely
de
fin
e a
ll m
ann
ers
in
wh
ich
ev
en
ts c
an t
ake
pla
ce in
th
e
reg
ion
of
stu
dy.
Eac
h s
cen
ario
in
the
co
llect
ion
mu
st h
ave
an
an
nu
al
fre
qu
en
cy o
f o
ccu
rre
nce
an
d m
ust
de
scri
be
th
e g
eo
gra
ph
ical
var
iab
ility
of
inte
nsi
ty d
uri
ng
th
e s
cen
ario
occ
urr
en
ce. I
nte
nsi
tie
s p
rod
uce
d
du
rin
g t
he
occ
urr
en
ce o
f an
ev
en
t
are
loca
l me
asu
res
of
sev
eri
ty.
Fo
r in
stan
ce, i
nte
nsi
ty d
uri
ng
an
ear
thq
uak
e c
ou
ld b
e m
eas
ure
d w
ith
pe
ak g
rou
nd
acc
ele
rati
on
. Ho
we
ve
r,
the
re is
th
e p
oss
ibili
ty t
hat
se
ve
rity
is n
ot
com
ple
tely
de
scri
be
d w
ith
a si
ng
le in
ten
sity
me
asu
re. I
n t
he
con
text
of
pro
bab
ilist
ic r
isk
anal
ysis
,
inte
nsi
tie
s d
uri
ng
a s
cen
ario
are
no
t n
um
be
rs t
hat
are
pre
cise
ly
kno
wn
. Th
ere
fore
, th
ey
mu
st b
e
reg
ard
ed
an
d t
reat
ed
as
ran
do
m
var
iab
les.
Th
is im
plie
s th
at, i
n o
rde
r
to d
esc
rib
e e
ach
of
the
inte
nsi
tie
s
that
are
pro
du
ced
du
rin
g a
sce
nar
io,
stat
isti
cal m
om
en
ts o
f th
e r
and
om
inte
nsi
ty m
ust
be
giv
en
to
de
fin
e it
s
pro
bab
ility
dis
trib
uti
on
co
nd
itio
ne
d
to t
he
sce
nar
io o
ccu
rre
nce
.
Haz
ard
re
pre
sen
tati
on
is g
ive
n in
CA
PR
A b
y m
ean
s o
f A
ME
file
s (a
nd
AM
E in
terf
ace
s) t
hat
co
nta
in t
he
info
rmat
ion
de
scri
be
d a
bo
ve. T
he
haz
ard
mo
du
les
are
co
de
d w
ith
spe
cial
cap
abili
tie
s to
ge
ne
rate
a
com
ple
te s
et
of
sto
chas
tic
eve
nts
rep
rese
nti
ng
th
e h
azar
d f
or
the
zon
e u
nd
er
stu
dy
and
to
sto
re t
his
info
rmat
ion
in a
n A
ME
file
(F
igu
re 1
).
LAN
DSL
IDES
TSU
NA
MI
Fig
ure
1. B
asic
mu
lti-
haz
ard
anal
ysis
co
nsi
de
red
in C
AP
RA
CA
PR
A a
pp
licat
ion
s in
clu
de
a s
et
of
dif
fere
nt
soft
war
e m
od
ule
s
for
the
dif
fere
nt
typ
es
of
haz
ard
s
con
sid
ere
d; a
sta
nd
ard
fo
rmat
fo
r
exp
osu
re o
f d
iffe
ren
t co
mp
on
en
ts
of
infr
astr
uct
ure
; a v
uln
era
bili
ty
mo
du
le w
ith
a li
bra
ry o
f vu
lne
rab
ility
curv
es;
an
d a
n e
xpo
sure
, haz
ard
, an
d
risk
map
pin
g g
eo
gra
ph
ic in
form
atio
n
syst
em
. Exp
ert
s an
d n
atio
nal
go
vern
me
nts
hav
e b
ee
n w
ork
ing
tog
eth
er
tow
ard
s p
lan
nin
g f
or
the
nat
ion
al r
ep
osi
tori
es
of
such
dat
a.
Ad
dit
ion
al e
nvi
sio
ne
d a
pp
licat
ion
s
are
co
st-b
en
efi
t an
alys
is f
or
risk
mit
igat
ion
alt
ern
ativ
es,
fin
anci
al r
isk
tran
sfe
r an
d r
ete
nti
on
str
ate
gie
s,
on
-tim
e d
amag
e e
stim
ate
s, la
nd
use
pla
nn
ing
sce
nar
ios,
an
d c
limat
e
chan
ge
stu
die
s.
Th
e p
latf
orm
’s a
rch
ite
ctu
re h
as
be
en
de
ve
lop
ed
to
be
mo
du
lar,
ext
en
sib
le, a
nd
op
en
, en
ablin
g t
he
po
ssib
ility
of
har
ne
ssin
g v
ario
us
inp
uts
an
d c
on
trib
uti
on
s. T
his
ap
-
pro
ach
en
able
s C
AP
RA
to
be
com
e a
“liv
ing
inst
rum
en
t.”
CA
PR
A’s
inn
ov
a-
tio
n e
xte
nd
s b
eyo
nd
th
e c
reat
ion
of
risk
mo
de
ling
pla
tfo
rms.
A c
om
-
mu
nit
y o
f d
isas
ter
risk
use
rs is
no
w
gro
win
g f
rom
ind
ivid
ual
co
un
trie
s.
Pra
ctic
al t
rain
ing
an
d w
ork
sho
ps
by
reg
ion
al e
xpe
rts
in d
isas
ter
risk
man
age
me
nt
are
un
de
r d
ev
elo
p-
me
nt
and
a c
om
ple
te s
trat
eg
y fo
r
futu
re d
ev
elo
pm
en
t is
un
de
r w
ay.
Th
e f
irst
ph
ase
of
this
am
bit
iou
s
init
iati
ve
be
gan
in C
ost
a R
ica
and
Nic
arag
ua
and
was
sp
on
sore
d b
y
the
Glo
bal
Fac
ility
fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n a
nd
Re
cov
ery
(G
FD
RR
).
Th
e s
eco
nd
ph
ase
has
alr
ead
y
be
gu
n e
xpan
din
g C
AP
RA
ap
plic
a-
tio
ns
to G
uat
em
ala,
Sal
vad
or,
Be
lize
,
and
Ho
nd
ura
s. S
ub
seq
ue
nt
ph
ase
s,
no
w r
ead
y to
be
lau
nch
ed
, will
se
e
CA
PR
A e
xpan
d in
th
e n
ear
fu
ture
to o
the
r co
un
trie
s in
th
e L
atin
Am
eri
ca r
eg
ion
, wh
ile c
on
tin
uin
g
to r
efi
ne
an
d g
row
th
e p
latf
orm
’s
tech
nic
al c
apab
iliti
es.
CA
PR
A is
no
w m
akin
g a
sig
nif
ican
t
con
trib
uti
on
to
th
e f
ield
of
dis
aste
r
risk
re
du
ctio
n a
nd
pre
par
ed
ne
ss,
stre
ng
the
nin
g t
he
re
gio
n’s
sust
ain
able
de
velo
pm
en
t. C
AP
RA
will
ce
rtai
nly
be
th
e r
efe
ren
ce r
isk
anal
ysis
en
gin
e f
or
the
en
tire
re
gio
n
in t
he
ne
ar f
utu
re. (
ww
w.e
cap
ra.o
rg.)
Pro
ba
bili
stic
ris
k
mo
de
ling
Pro
bab
ilist
ic t
ech
niq
ues
of
CA
PR
A
emp
loy
stat
isti
cal a
nal
ysis
of
his
tori
cal d
atas
ets
to s
imu
late
haz
ard
inte
nsi
ties
an
d f
req
uen
cies
acr
oss
a co
un
try’
s te
rrit
ory.
Th
is h
azar
d
info
rmat
ion
can
th
en b
e co
mb
ined
wit
h t
he
dat
a on
exp
osu
re a
nd
vuln
erab
ility
—of
pop
ula
tion
cen
ters
or c
riti
cal i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
, for
exa
mp
le
—an
d s
pat
ially
an
alyz
ed t
o es
tim
ate
the
resu
ltin
g p
oten
tial
dam
age.
Th
is
mea
sure
can
th
en b
e ex
pre
ssed
in
qu
anti
fied
ris
k m
etri
cs s
uch
as
a
Co
st-B
en
efi
t A
nal
ysis
fo
r P
rev
en
tio
n/M
itig
atio
n
Em
erg
en
cy R
esp
on
se S
ce-
nar
ios
& P
lan
nin
g
Haz
ard
Mo
du
leV
uln
era
bili
ty M
od
ule
Exp
osu
re M
od
ule
Ho
listi
c R
isk
Ev
alu
atio
n(I
nd
icat
ors
)
Lan
Use
Pla
nn
ing
&Z
on
ing
Ris
k R
ete
nti
on
an
d
Fin
anci
al R
isk
Tran
sfe
r
Dam
age
& L
oss
Mo
du
le (
Ris
k)
Pro
ba
bili
stic
ris
k m
od
el a
nd
dis
ast
er
risk
ma
na
ge
me
nt
ap
plic
ati
on
s
63
CA
PR
A: M
eas
uri
ng
th
e U
nm
eas
ura
ble
62
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
Th
e p
latf
orm
’s
arc
hit
ec
ture
ha
s b
ee
n d
ev
elo
pe
d t
o b
e
mo
du
lar,
ext
en
sib
le,
an
d o
pe
n, e
na
blin
g
the
po
ssib
ility
o
f h
arn
ess
ing
v
ari
ou
s in
pu
ts a
nd
c
on
trib
uti
on
s. T
his
a
pp
roa
ch
en
ab
les
CA
PR
A t
o b
ec
om
e a
“l
ivin
g in
stru
me
nt.
”
Th
e m
od
ule
of
Vu
lne
rab
ility
of
CA
PR
A a
llow
s th
e d
ire
ct in
clu
sio
n o
f
bu
ilt-i
n f
un
ctio
ns,
th
e m
od
ific
atio
n
of
exi
stin
g c
urv
es,
or
the
co
nst
ruc-
tio
n o
f n
ew
fu
nct
ion
s b
ase
d o
n
cap
acit
y ty
pic
al c
urv
es
for
the
bu
ildin
g s
yste
m u
nd
er
anal
ysis
, or
on
pre
vio
usl
y p
ub
lish
ed
info
rmat
ion
(Fig
ure
3).
Da
ma
ge
an
d lo
ss
mo
du
le
To
cal
cula
te lo
sse
s, t
he
pro
bab
ilist
ic
dam
age
rat
io d
eri
ved
in t
he
vu
lne
r-
abili
ty m
od
ule
is t
ran
slat
ed
into
eco
-
no
mic
loss
by
mu
ltip
lyin
g t
he
dam
age
rati
o b
y th
e v
alu
e a
t ri
sk. T
his
is d
on
e
for
eac
h a
sse
t cl
ass
at e
ach
loca
-
tio
n. L
oss
es
are
th
en
ag
gre
gat
ed
as
req
uir
ed
. Ris
k m
eas
ure
s p
rod
uce
d
by
the
mo
de
l pro
vid
e r
isk
man
age
rs
and
de
cisi
on
mak
ers
wit
h e
sse
nti
al
info
rmat
ion
re
qu
ire
d t
o m
anag
e
futu
re r
isks
. Th
e f
ollo
win
g im
po
rtan
t
risk
me
asu
res
are
pro
vid
ed
by
this
mo
du
le o
f an
alys
is:
L
oss
Exc
ee
dan
ce C
urv
e.
LE
C r
ep
rese
nts
th
e a
nn
ual
fre
qu
en
cy w
ith
wh
ich
a lo
ss o
f
any
spe
cifi
ed
mo
ne
tary
am
ou
nt
will
be
exc
ee
de
d. T
his
is t
he
mo
st im
po
rtan
t ca
tast
rop
he
risk
me
asu
re f
or
risk
man
age
rs,
sin
ce it
est
imat
es
the
am
ou
nt
of
fun
ds
req
uir
ed
to
me
et
risk
man
age
me
nt
ob
ject
ive
s.
P
rob
able
Max
imu
m L
oss
. PM
L
rep
rese
nts
th
e lo
ss a
mo
un
t
for
a g
ive
n a
nn
ual
exc
ee
dan
ce
fre
qu
en
cy, o
r it
s in
ve
rse
, th
e
retu
rn p
eri
od
. De
pe
nd
ing
on
an
org
aniz
atio
n’s
ris
k to
lera
nce
,
the
ris
k m
anag
er
may
de
cid
e
to m
anag
e f
or
loss
es
up
to
a
cert
ain
re
turn
pe
rio
d.
A
gg
reg
ate
d A
vera
ge
An
nu
al
Lo
ss. A
AL
is t
he
exp
ect
ed
loss
pe
r ye
ar. C
om
pu
tati
on
ally
, AA
L
is t
he
su
m o
f p
rod
uct
s o
f e
ven
t
exp
ect
ed
loss
es
and
eve
nt
ann
ual
occ
urr
en
ce p
rob
abili
tie
s
for
all s
toch
asti
c e
ven
ts
con
sid
ere
d in
th
e lo
ss m
od
el.
In
pro
bab
ilist
ic t
erm
s A
AL
is t
he
mat
he
mat
ical
exp
ect
atio
n o
f th
e
ann
ual
loss
fo
r al
l val
ue
s at
ris
k.
A
vera
ge
An
nu
al L
oss
. AA
L p
er
bu
ildin
g. R
esu
lts
are
giv
en
of
the
ann
ual
ave
rag
e lo
ss f
or
eac
h o
f
the
val
ue
s at
ris
k d
esc
rib
ed
in
the
exp
osu
re d
atab
ase
s. R
esu
lts
are
giv
en
in s
uch
a w
ay t
hat
th
ey
can
be
eas
ily a
nal
yze
d in
CA
PR
A-
GIS
en
viro
nm
en
t, o
r in
th
e G
IS
syst
em
th
at t
he
use
r p
refe
rs.
In a
dd
itio
n t
o t
he
pro
bab
ilist
ic e
co-
no
mic
fig
ure
s, it
is a
lso
re
lev
ant
for
dis
aste
r m
anag
em
en
t an
d v
uln
er-
abili
ty r
ed
uct
ion
to
hav
e t
he
loss
es
for
spe
cifi
c sc
en
ario
s, c
on
sid
eri
ng
som
e h
isto
rica
l ev
en
ts o
r fu
ture
ev
en
ts. T
his
is p
arti
cula
rly
use
ful f
or
the
cit
y e
me
rge
ncy
re
spo
nse
pla
n
Exp
osu
re m
od
ule
Th
e e
xpo
sure
val
ue
s o
f “a
sse
ts a
t
risk
” ar
e in
clu
de
d in
a s
tan
dar
d s
hap
e
form
at f
ile. I
nfo
rmat
ion
is e
ith
er
gat
he
red
usi
ng
co
mp
lem
en
tary
too
ls, e
stim
ate
d f
rom
ava
ilab
le s
ec-
on
dar
y d
ata
sou
rce
s su
ch a
s e
xist
ing
dat
abas
es
(cad
astr
al d
atab
ase
or
info
rmat
ion
fro
m p
op
ula
tio
n c
en
sus)
or
de
rive
d f
rom
a p
roxy
or
sim
plif
ied
pro
ced
ure
s b
ase
d o
n g
en
era
l mac
ro
eco
no
mic
an
d s
oci
al in
form
atio
n s
uch
as p
op
ula
tio
n d
en
sity
, co
nst
ruct
ion
stat
isti
cs o
r m
ore
sp
eci
fic
info
rma-
tio
n. A
cco
rdin
g t
o t
he
info
rmat
ion
avai
lab
le, a
ne
w in
pu
t d
ata
bas
e
is c
on
stru
cte
d b
ase
d o
n G
IS a
nd
spe
cifi
c re
qu
ire
d in
form
atio
n is
com
ple
ted
. Exp
osu
re in
form
atio
n h
as
to b
e s
pe
cifi
ed
in a
sh
ape
fo
rmat
file
(Fig
ure
2),
char
acte
rizi
ng
co
mp
o-
ne
nts
eit
he
r b
y p
oly
go
ns,
po
lylin
es,
or
po
ints
. In
ad
dit
ion
, in
ord
er
to
calc
ula
te t
he
imp
act
on
th
e p
op
ula
-
tio
n, g
en
era
l in
form
atio
n r
ela
ted
to
bu
ildin
g o
ccu
pat
ion
is a
lso
est
imat
ed
.
Vu
lne
rab
ility
mo
du
le
Th
e v
uln
era
bili
ty in
form
atio
n
qu
anti
fie
s th
e d
amag
e c
ause
d t
o
eac
h a
sse
t cl
ass
by
the
inte
nsi
ty o
f
a g
ive
n e
ve
nt
at a
sit
e. T
he
de
ve
lop
-
me
nt
of
asse
t cl
assi
fica
tio
n is
bas
ed
on
a c
om
bin
atio
n o
f co
nst
ruct
ion
mat
eri
al, c
on
stru
ctio
n t
ype
(sa
y,
wal
l an
d r
oo
f co
mb
inat
ion
), b
uild
ing
usa
ge
, nu
mb
er
of
sto
rie
s, a
nd
ag
e.
Dam
age
du
rin
g a
n e
arth
qu
ake
, fo
r
exa
mp
le, i
s re
gar
de
d b
y C
AP
RA
as a
n u
nce
rtai
n q
uan
tity
an
d is
thu
s tr
eat
ed
as
a ra
nd
om
var
iab
le
wit
h B
eta
pro
bab
ility
dis
trib
uti
on
.
Sin
ce t
his
dis
trib
uti
on
re
qu
ire
s tw
o
par
ame
ters
, vu
lne
rab
ility
de
fin
itio
n
also
re
qu
ire
s tw
o p
aram
ete
rs: t
he
me
an d
amag
e r
atio
(M
DR
) an
d a
me
asu
re o
f th
e u
nce
rtai
nty
in t
he
dam
age
rat
io, g
ive
n in
te
rms
of
its
stan
dar
d d
ev
iati
on
. Th
e M
DR
is
de
fin
ed
as
the
me
an r
atio
of
the
exp
ect
ed
re
pai
r co
st t
o t
he
re
-
pla
cem
en
t co
st o
f th
e s
tru
ctu
re. A
vu
lne
rab
ility
cu
rve
is d
efi
ne
d r
ela
t-
ing
th
e M
DR
an
d it
s st
and
ard
de
via
-
tio
n t
o t
he
ear
thq
uak
e in
ten
sity
,
wh
ich
can
be
exp
ress
ed
in t
erm
s
of
max
imu
m g
rou
nd
acc
ele
rati
on
,
spe
ctra
l acc
ele
rati
on
, ve
loci
ty, o
r
dis
pla
cem
en
t at
eac
h lo
cati
on
.
Sp
eci
fic
vu
lne
rab
ility
cu
rve
s ca
n b
e
de
fin
ed
fo
r d
ire
ct p
hys
ical
loss
es,
for
bu
ildin
g c
on
ten
t lo
sse
s, a
nd
ev
en
tual
ly f
or
bu
sin
ess
inte
rru
p-
tio
n c
ost
s. A
t th
e p
rese
nt
stag
e
of
de
ve
lop
me
nt,
a u
niq
ue
vu
lne
r-
abili
ty f
un
ctio
n h
as t
o b
e s
pe
cifi
ed
,
wh
ich
we
igh
ts t
he
par
tici
pat
ion
of
dir
ect
loss
es,
as
we
ll as
ind
ire
ct a
nd
con
ten
t lo
sse
s, o
r in
ge
ne
ral a
ny
ad-
dit
ion
al t
ype
of
loss
co
nsi
de
red
. Th
e
syst
em
als
o a
llow
s fo
r th
e u
se o
f
cust
om
ize
d v
uln
era
bili
ty f
un
ctio
ns.
Fig
ure
3. V
uln
era
bili
ty m
od
ule
allo
ws
bu
ilt-i
n a
nd
a li
bra
ry o
f v
uln
era
bili
ty
curv
es
Fig
ure
2. E
xpo
sure
info
rmat
ion
spe
cifi
ed
in a
sh
ape
fo
rmat
file
65
CA
PR
A: M
eas
uri
ng
th
e U
nm
eas
ura
ble
64
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
m
and
to
ide
nti
fy t
he
bu
ildin
gs
and
blo
cks
wit
h p
ote
nti
al d
amag
e c
on
-
cen
trat
ion
. CA
PR
A is
de
sig
ne
d t
o
pro
du
ce, u
po
n t
he
use
r’s
req
ue
st,
pro
bab
ilist
ic lo
ss r
esu
lts
for
spe
cifi
c
sce
nar
ios
(Fig
ure
4).
Bas
ed
on
th
e r
isk
resu
lts
som
e
risk
co
mm
un
icat
ion
fig
ure
s h
ave
be
en
de
velo
pe
d a
nd
use
d, s
uch
as
the
Dis
aste
r D
efi
cit
Ind
ex
use
d b
y
the
In
ter-
Am
eri
can
De
velo
pm
en
t
Ban
k (I
DB
) an
d t
he
Urb
an D
isas
ter
Ris
k In
de
x (U
DR
I). T
he
y h
ave
be
en
de
sig
ne
d u
sin
g t
he
ris
k m
etr
ics
of
CA
PR
A t
o a
lert
an
d in
vite
dif
fere
nt
stak
eh
old
ers
to
de
cisi
on
mak
ing
.
Th
ey
will
als
o b
e a
co
mp
on
en
t o
f
CA
PR
A.
Ne
xt s
tep
s a
nd
fu
ture
de
ve
lop
me
nts
Th
e f
irst
ph
ase
of
the
init
iati
ve
was
lau
nch
ed
in C
en
tral
Am
eri
ca w
ith
the
su
pp
ort
of
the
Wo
rld
Ban
k.
CA
PR
A w
ill b
e im
ple
me
nte
d o
n a
cou
ntr
y-b
y-co
un
try
bas
is. O
the
r
po
ten
tial
sp
on
sors
hav
e e
xpan
de
d
CA
PR
A t
o o
the
r co
un
trie
s. T
he
ID
B
is s
up
po
rtin
g t
he
ne
w im
ple
me
nta
-
tio
ns
be
cau
se t
he
CA
PR
A o
bje
ctiv
es
mat
ch t
he
IA
DB
’s n
ew
dis
aste
r
risk
man
age
me
nt
po
licy.
Th
e b
asic
arch
ite
ctu
re o
f th
e in
itia
tiv
e is
bu
ilt t
hro
ug
h t
he
co
llab
ora
tio
n o
f
nat
ion
al g
ov
ern
me
nts
, aca
de
mic
inst
itu
tio
ns,
an
d t
ech
nic
al e
xpe
rts
fro
m C
en
tral
Am
eri
ca, w
he
re e
xist
-
ing
info
rmat
ion
on
haz
ard
s, e
xpo
-
sure
, an
d v
uln
era
bili
ty is
re
vie
we
d.
Pla
ns
for
the
nat
ion
al r
ep
osi
tori
es
of
such
dat
a ar
e a
lso
be
ing
mad
e. I
n
the
lon
g r
un
, in
cre
ase
d p
arti
cip
atio
n
will
occ
ur,
wit
h N
GO
s an
d c
om
mu
ni-
ty-b
ase
d in
itia
tiv
es
ge
ttin
g in
vo
lve
d
in t
he
pro
cess
. Th
e la
un
ch p
has
e is
follo
we
d b
y a
seri
es
of
wo
rksh
op
s,
and
on
go
ing
cap
acit
y-b
uild
ing
an
d
dia
log
ue
wit
h t
he
co
un
trie
s w
ill
occ
ur,
in o
rde
r to
est
ablis
h r
eg
ion
al
stan
dar
ds
and
inte
r-o
pe
rab
ility
,
wh
ile m
ee
tin
g t
he
ne
ed
s o
f in
di-
vid
ual
co
un
trie
s.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
Gab
rie
l An
dre
s B
ern
al,
Se
nio
r E
ng
ine
er,
Ev
alu
ació
n
de
Rie
sgo
s N
atu
rale
s, A
mé
rica
Lat
ina
(ER
N-A
L)
Lu
is Y
amin
, Ass
oci
ate
Pro
fess
or,
Un
ive
rsid
ad d
e lo
s A
nd
es
Ed
uar
do
Re
ino
so, C
EO
, ER
N-A
L
Van
ess
a R
osa
les
Ard
on
,
Co
mis
ión
Nac
ion
al d
e P
rev
en
ció
n
de
Rie
sgo
s y
Ate
nci
ón
de
Em
erg
en
cias
, Co
sta
Ric
a
Jo
sé A
ng
el V
illal
ob
os,
In
stit
uto
Nac
ion
al d
e S
eg
uro
s (I
NS
),
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ern
est
o D
ura
n, S
iste
ma
Nac
ion
al
de
Est
ud
ios
Terr
ito
rial
es
(SN
ET
),
El S
alv
ado
r
Fig
ure
4. P
rob
abili
stic
mu
lti-
haz
ard
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
Fo
r e
ach
haz
ard
Fo
r e
ach
po
rtfo
lio
Fo
r e
ach
co
mp
on
en
t
inte
nsi
ty
par
ame
ters
(dam
age
, eco
no
mic
an
d
hu
man
loss
es,
etc
.)
Calc
ula
tio
n o
f th
elo
ss r
ecu
rren
ce
or
each
haza
rdF
or
eac
h s
cen
ario
PD
F f
or
eac
h s
cen
ario
EN
D O
F M
OD
ELI
NG
PR
OC
ESS
Calc
ula
tio
n f
or
dif
fere
nt
pu
rpo
ses
PM
LA
AL
Eff
ect
s in
po
pu
lati
on
(Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f in
juri
es)
Calc
ula
tio
n o
f m
ult
ihaza
rs l
oss
re
curr
en
ce (
mu
ltir
isk)
67
66
Glo
ba
l Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
po
rt
and
th
e m
ajo
r d
riv
ers
of
the
se p
at-
tern
s an
d t
ren
ds.
Giv
en
th
e g
row
ing
infl
ue
nce
of
clim
ate
ch
ang
e, t
he
cen
terp
iece
of
this
ch
apte
r w
as a
n
anal
ysis
of
the
mo
rtal
ity
and
eco
-
no
mic
loss
ris
k fo
r w
eat
he
r-re
late
d
haz
ard
s. I
n a
dd
itio
n n
ew
insi
gh
ts
hav
e b
ee
n g
ain
ed
into
oth
er
haz
-
ard
s su
ch a
s e
arth
qu
ake
s, t
sun
amis
,
and
dro
ug
ht.
Ch
apte
r 3
ad
dre
sse
s ri
sk p
atte
rns
and
po
vert
y tr
en
ds
at t
he
loca
l
leve
l, w
he
re d
isas
ter
risk
re
veal
s a
com
ple
xity
th
at is
ess
en
tial
ly in
vis-
ible
wh
en
ob
serv
ed
fro
m a
glo
bal
pe
rsp
ect
ive
, bu
t w
hic
h is
cri
tica
l to
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
bo
th r
isk
dyn
amic
s
and
dis
aste
r ri
sk–p
ove
rty
inte
rac-
tio
ns.
Ch
apte
r 3
mak
es
use
of
Nat
ion
al D
isas
ter
dat
abas
es
wh
ich
con
tain
imp
act
and
loss
re
po
rts
agg
reg
ate
d a
t th
e lo
cal g
ove
rnm
en
t
leve
l of
dis
aste
rs o
f al
l sca
les.
GA
R s
ess
ion
ha
d t
wo
m
ain
fo
cu
ses
A
sp
ace
in w
hic
h t
he
co
mm
un
ity
cou
ld a
sk q
ue
stio
ns
reg
ard
ing
the
me
tho
do
log
ies,
dat
a,
pro
cess
an
d o
the
r as
pe
cts
of
the
GA
R m
ain
re
po
rt a
nd
cas
e
stu
die
s, a
nd
th
e p
rese
nta
tio
ns
giv
en
du
rin
g t
he
se
ssio
n.
Re
spo
nse
s w
ere
pro
vid
ed
by
the
Re
po
rt C
oo
rdin
ato
r
and
tw
o o
the
r e
xpe
rts
wh
o
wo
rke
d o
n t
he
re
po
rt. M
ost
of
the
qu
est
ion
s as
ked
we
re
req
ue
sts
to c
lari
fy a
spe
cts
of
the
me
tho
do
log
y, in
par
ticu
lar
reg
ard
ing
th
e m
eth
od
s to
calc
ula
te v
uln
era
bili
ty, t
he
chal
len
ge
s o
f in
teg
rati
ng
dat
a
fro
m m
ult
iple
so
urc
es,
an
d le
ve
ls
of
de
tail,
etc
.
A
fo
rum
wh
ere
th
e c
om
mu
nit
y
dis
cuss
ed
th
e f
ind
ing
s an
d
reco
mm
en
dat
ion
s o
f th
e G
AR
and
su
gg
est
ed
ne
w c
ou
rse
s o
f
acti
on
, an
d in
ge
ne
ral a
sp
ace
in
wh
ich
GA
R a
uth
ors
list
en
ed
to
wh
at t
he
co
mm
un
ity
had
to
say
and
su
gg
est
ab
ou
t fu
rth
er
wo
rk
in t
his
are
a.
Fe
ed
ba
ck
fro
m
pa
rtic
ipa
nts
T
he
GA
R is
be
ing
use
d a
s a
refe
ren
ce g
uid
e b
y m
any
pra
ctit
ion
ers
an
d d
eci
sio
n-
mak
ers
aro
un
d t
he
wo
rld
, an
d
the
ne
w e
dit
ion
of
the
GA
R
will
be
re
ceiv
ed
wit
h h
igh
exp
ect
atio
ns
fro
m m
any
aro
un
d
the
glo
be
.
T
he
GA
R, a
s e
mp
has
ize
d a
t
the
Fo
rum
, is
an im
po
rtan
t,
inn
ov
ativ
e d
ocu
me
nt
on
th
e
pro
gre
ss o
f ri
sk m
od
elin
g
pat
tern
s an
d p
inp
oin
ts t
he
chal
len
ge
s an
d is
sue
s o
f an
alys
is
and
dat
a o
n lo
cal i
mp
act
wh
en
risk
is v
iew
ed
th
rou
gh
a g
lob
al
len
s. T
he
imp
ort
ance
of
the
init
iati
ve
s to
co
llect
nat
ion
al
lev
el d
ata
was
hig
hlig
hte
d a
nd
con
ve
yed
to
th
e c
om
mu
nit
y.
T
he
fo
cus
ado
pte
d t
o im
pro
ve
the
GA
R is
co
rre
ct: t
he
ne
xt
ed
itio
n s
ho
uld
co
nta
in m
ore
po
licy
reco
mm
en
dat
ion
s, o
n
on
e h
and
, an
d s
om
e d
iffi
cult
ies,
chal
len
ge
s, a
nd
gap
s in
th
e
curr
en
t e
dit
ion
hav
e t
o b
e
add
ress
ed
, i.e
., b
ett
er
dat
a an
d
anal
ysis
ab
ou
t d
rou
gh
t e
ve
nts
,
mo
re c
ov
era
ge
in t
erm
s o
f d
ata
and
de
pth
fo
r A
fric
a in
ge
ne
ral,
refi
ne
me
nts
of
me
tho
do
log
ies
to t
arg
et
Sm
all I
slan
d S
tate
s,
and
allo
win
g in
tere
ste
d p
arti
es
to a
dd
ress
nat
ion
al le
ve
l
anal
ysis
, am
on
g o
the
rs, w
ere
sug
ge
ste
d b
y th
e c
om
mu
nit
y.
Th
e s
ug
ge
stio
ns
are
alig
ne
d
wit
h p
rev
iou
s fe
ed
bac
k an
d t
he
ne
w G
AR
20
11
wo
rk p
lan
.
Dis
ast
er
an
d p
ov
ert
y
inte
rac
tio
ns
at
the
loc
al
lev
el
E
vid
en
ce s
ho
we
d t
hat
dis
aste
r im
pac
ts h
ave
a
dir
ect
an
d n
eg
ativ
e e
ffe
ct
on
we
lfar
e a
t th
e lo
cal a
nd
reg
ion
al le
ve
ls.
C
om
mu
nit
ies
in p
oo
r ar
eas
lose
a f
ar h
igh
er
pro
po
rtio
n
of
the
ir a
sse
ts.
D
isas
ter
imp
acts
may
lead
to lo
ng
er-
term
ou
tco
me
s,
par
ticu
larl
y in
th
e c
ase
of
hig
hly
vu
lne
rab
le g
rou
ps
such
as
child
ren
.
It
is c
lear
th
at s
ucc
ess
ive
dis
aste
r im
pac
ts s
eri
ou
sly
un
de
rmin
e c
op
ing
stra
teg
ies.
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
th
e s
ess
ion
An
dre
w M
askr
ey,
Co
ord
inat
or,
Glo
bal
Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
po
rt o
n
Dis
aste
r R
isk
Re
du
ctio
n, U
nit
ed
Nat
ion
s In
tern
atio
nal
Str
ate
gy
for
Dis
aste
r R
ed
uct
ion
an
d
Re
cov
ery
(U
NIS
DR
)
Uw
e D
eic
hm
ann
, Se
nio
r E
nv
i-
ron
me
nta
l Sp
eci
alis
t,
Th
e W
orl
d B
ank
Ph
ilip
pe
Bal
ly, E
arth
Ob
serv
a-
tio
n A
pp
licat
ion
s E
ng
ine
er,
Eu
rop
ean
Sp
ace
Ag
en
cy
66Th
e G
lob
al A
sse
ssm
en
t
Re
po
rt (
GA
R)
Ju
lio S
erj
eN
atio
nal
Dis
aste
r In
ve
nto
rie
s N
etw
ork
C
oo
rdin
ato
rG
lob
al A
sse
ssm
en
t R
ep
ort
, Un
ite
d N
atio
ns-
Inte
rnat
ion
al S
trat
eg
y fo
r D
isas
ter
Re
du
ctio
n
Th
e f
irst
UN
-IS
DR
G
lob
al A
sse
ssm
en
t R
ep
ort
on
Dis
ast
er
Ris
k
Re
du
cti
on
, Ris
k a
nd
P
ov
ert
y in
a C
ha
ng
-in
g C
lima
te (
GA
R0
9)
wa
s la
un
ch
ed
by
th
e
UN
Se
cre
tary
Ge
ne
ral
in B
ah
rain
on
Ma
y 1
1,
20
09
.
GA
R0
9 f
ocu
sed
on
th
e n
exu
s b
e-
twe
en
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
nd
po
ve
rty,
in
a co
nte
xt o
f g
lob
al c
limat
e c
han
ge
.
It p
rov
ide
d c
om
pe
llin
g e
vid
en
ce
to s
ho
w t
hat
bo
th m
ort
alit
y an
d
eco
no
mic
loss
ris
k fr
om
nat
ura
l
dis
aste
rs a
re h
eav
ily c
on
cen
-
trat
ed
in d
ev
elo
pin
g c
ou
ntr
ies
and
that
wit
hin
th
ese
co
un
trie
s th
ey
dis
pro
po
rtio
nat
ely
aff
ect
th
e p
oo
r.
Dis
aste
r im
pac
ts h
ave
pe
rsis
ten
t,
lon
g-t
erm
ne
gat
ive
imp
acts
on
po
ve
rty
and
hu
man
de
ve
lop
me
nt,
wh
ich
un
de
rmin
e t
he
ach
iev
em
en
t
of
the
Mill
en
niu
m D
ev
elo
pm
en
t
Go
als
(MD
Gs)
. It
ide
nti
fie
d u
nd
er-
lyin
g r
isk
dri
ve
rs s
uch
as
vu
lne
r-
able
ru
ral l
ive
liho
od
s, p
oo
r u
rban
go
ve
rnan
ce a
nd
de
clin
ing
eco
sys-
tem
s th
at s
hap
e t
he
re
lati
on
ship
be
twe
en
dis
aste
r ri
sk a
nd
po
ve
rty,
and
wh
ich
are
lead
ing
to
incr
eas
ing
risk
, ev
en
ass
um
ing
a s
tab
le c
limat
e.
It a
lso
sh
ow
ed
ho
w c
limat
e c
han
ge
will
mag
nif
y th
e u
ne
ve
n s
oci
al a
nd
terr
ito
rial
dis
trib
uti
on
of
risk
, in
-
cre
asin
g t
he
ris
ks f
ace
d b
y th
e p
oo
r
and
fu
rth
er
amp
lifyi
ng
po
ve
rty.
For
th
e p
urp
oses
of
the
Un
der
stan
d-
ing
Ris
k C
onfe
ren
ce, a
nd
giv
en it
s
spec
ific
foc
us
on in
nov
atio
n a
nd
know
led
ge
on r
isk
asse
ssm
ents
, th
e
sess
ion
con
cen
trat
ed o
n g
ivin
g a
t-
ten
dee
s a
bro
ad o
verv
iew
of
the
GA
R
and
th
en p
rovi
ded
det
aile
d p
rese
nta
-
tion
s on
th
e m
ore
rele
van
t su
bje
cts
of t
he
pu
blic
atio
n a
s co
nta
ined
in
Ch
apte
rs 2
an
d 3
of
the
Rep
ort.
Ch
apte
r 2
fe
atu
res
mo
de
ling
of
dis
aste
r ri
sk p
atte
rns
and
tre
nd
s at
the
glo
bal
lev
el,
allo
win
g a
vis
ual
iza-
tio
n o
f th
e m
ajo
r co
nce
ntr
atio
ns
of
risk
an
d a
n id
en
tifi
cati
on
of
the
ge
o-
gra
ph
ic d
istr
ibu
tio
n o
f d
isas
ter
risk
acro
ss c
ou
ntr
ies,
tre
nd
s o
ve
r ti
me
68
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mG
lob
al A
sse
ssm
en
t R
ep
ort
Glo
bal
Ear
thq
uak
e M
od
el
Glo
ba
l Ea
rth
qu
ak
e
Mo
de
lA
lmo
st h
alf
a m
illio
n p
eo
ple
die
d i
n t
he
la
st d
ec
ad
e d
ue
to e
art
hq
ua
ke
s, a
nd
ev
en
mo
re w
he
n o
ne
ad
ds
tsu
na
mis
(ht
tp
://e
art
hq
ua
ke
.us
gs
.go
v/r
eg
ion
al/
wo
rld
/wo
rld
_
de
ath
s.p
hp
). M
ost
of
the
se c
asu
alt
ies
we
re f
elt
in
th
e
de
ve
lop
ing
wo
rld
, w
he
re r
isk
is
inc
rea
sin
g d
ue
to
ra
pid
po
pu
lati
on
g
row
th
an
d
urb
an
iza
tio
n
( ww
w.g
eo
ha
zard
s.
no
/pro
jec
ts/p
roje
ct3
_08
/pro
jec
t_3
_ea
rth
q.h
tm
- fi
gu
re
2).
In
pa
rtic
ula
r m
an
y o
f th
e w
orl
d’s
me
ga
cit
ies
of
10
mill
ion
in
ha
bit
an
ts
an
d
mo
re,
suc
h
as
De
lhi,
Bo
go
ta,
Ja
ka
rta
, a
nd
Lim
a,
are
sit
ua
ted
in
hig
hly
se
ism
ic a
cti
ve
are
as.
A s
ign
ific
an
t p
rop
ort
ion
of
the
wo
rld
’s p
op
ula
tio
n
is t
he
refo
re a
t ri
sk f
rom
ea
rth
qu
ak
es.
Th
e 2
01
0 H
ait
i an
d
Ch
ile e
art
hq
ua
ke
s p
ain
fully
re
min
de
d t
he
wo
rld
of
the
de
stru
cti
ve
imp
ac
t o
f se
ism
ic e
ve
nts
an
d t
he
imp
ort
an
ce
of
relia
ble
ea
rth
qu
ak
e r
isk
info
rma
tio
n. H
ow
ev
er,
in m
an
y
ea
rth
qu
ak
e-p
ron
e r
eg
ion
s n
o r
isk
mo
de
ls e
xist
, a
nd
ev
en
wh
ere
mo
de
ls d
o e
xist
, th
ey
are
oft
en
ina
cc
ess
ible
du
e t
o
the
ir p
rop
rie
tary
na
ture
or
co
mp
lex
use
r-in
terf
ac
e.
Dr.
Ru
i Pin
ho
Se
cre
tary
Ge
ne
ral
GE
M F
ou
nd
atio
n
M
6 s
ince
19
70
US
GS
AN
SS
ca
talo
g
Images courtesy of R. Stein/V. Sevilgen
69
70
Glo
ba
l Ass
ess
me
nt
Re
po
rtG
lob
al E
arth
qu
ake
Mo
de
l
inte
rnat
ion
al c
on
sort
ium
, to
ge
the
r
wit
h t
he
wid
er
com
mu
nit
y, w
ill
de
term
ine
th
e m
ost
re
lev
ant
me
tho
ds
to in
corp
ora
te, f
or
exa
mp
le, p
ort
folio
an
alys
is, v
ario
us
typ
es
of
cost
-be
ne
fit
anal
yse
s, b
ut
also
In
pu
t-O
utp
ut
mo
de
ls o
r th
e
de
ve
lop
me
nt
of
nat
ion
al p
lan
s.
Th
e m
od
el i
s b
ein
g
co
nst
ruc
ted
by
th
e
co
mm
un
ity,
an
d w
ill
the
refo
re b
e “
ow
ne
d”
a
nd
he
nc
e u
sed
by
th
e
ma
jori
ty o
f it
Inte
rnat
ion
al c
onso
rtia
are
dev
elop
ing
dat
abas
es, m
eth
ods,
an
d
stan
dar
ds
for
haz
ard
, ris
k, a
nd
imp
act
asse
ssm
ent.
Reg
ion
al p
rog
ram
s
thro
ug
hou
t th
e w
orld
val
idat
e
thes
e d
ata
and
sta
nd
ard
s an
d w
ill
pro
vid
e m
ore
det
aile
d d
ata
from
eac
h
reg
ion
. In
ad
dit
ion
, in
stit
uti
ons
and
ind
ivid
ual
s fr
om a
ll ov
er t
he
wor
ld
con
trib
ute
dat
a an
d k
now
led
ge
to
the
init
iati
ve. D
evel
opm
ent
of t
he
GE
M I
T a
rch
itec
ture
, in
clu
din
g a
com
pu
tati
onal
(ris
k) e
ng
ine,
occ
urs
from
20
11
in a
n o
pen
sou
rce
envi
ron
men
t an
d in
volv
es in
tera
ctio
n
wit
h s
take
hol
der
s an
d e
nd
-use
r
gro
up
s. G
EM
sh
ares
dev
elop
men
ts,
acti
viti
es, a
nd
dis
cuss
ion
s w
ith
th
e
wid
er c
omm
un
ity
thro
ug
h v
ario
us
com
mu
nic
atio
n c
han
nel
s an
d in
vite
s
the
com
mu
nit
y to
con
trib
ute
an
d
com
men
t.
Th
e c
om
pila
tio
n o
f u
nif
orm
g
lob
al d
ata
ba
ses
an
d m
od
els
is u
np
rec
ed
en
ted
Wit
hin
GE
M, s
eis
mic
haz
ard
is
de
fin
ed
as
the
pro
bab
ility
of
leve
ls
of
gro
un
d s
hak
ing
, re
sult
ing
fro
m
ear
thq
uak
es,
wit
hin
a g
ive
n t
ime
span
. Th
e h
azar
d m
od
ule
of
the
glo
bal
ear
thq
uak
e m
od
el i
s b
ase
d
on
fiv
e c
om
po
ne
nts
to
en
sure
that
eve
ryth
ing
re
leva
nt
to h
azar
d
asse
ssm
en
t is
incl
ud
ed
. Un
ifo
rm
dat
abas
es
and
cat
alo
gu
es
on
his
tori
cal,
inst
rum
en
tal a
nd
act
ive
fau
lts
/se
ism
ic s
ou
rce
dat
a ar
e
be
ing
co
mp
iled
on
a g
lob
al s
cale
fo
r
the
fir
st t
ime
; th
ese
co
mp
rise
th
e
firs
t th
ree
co
mp
on
en
ts. E
xte
nd
ing
the
re
cord
of
larg
e d
amag
ing
ear
thq
uak
es
seve
ral h
un
dre
d
year
s lo
ng
er
and
in e
xce
pti
on
al
case
s b
y 1
,00
0 y
ear
s, b
ut
also
de
fin
ing
me
tho
ds
for
un
ifo
rm
com
pila
tio
n o
f g
lob
al h
isto
rica
l
dat
abas
e is
ext
rem
ely
val
uab
le.
Exi
stin
g (
inst
rum
en
tal)
ear
thq
uak
e
cata
log
ue
s (1
90
0-p
rese
nt)
are
mo
stly
co
mp
ilati
on
s o
f p
revi
ou
sly
pu
blis
he
d o
ne
s co
veri
ng
dif
fere
nt
tim
e p
eri
od
s an
d t
he
refo
re t
he
y
hav
e n
on
-un
ifo
rm e
arth
qu
ake
loca
tio
ns
or
mag
nit
ud
es;
wit
hin
th
e
GE
M s
cop
e a
un
ifo
rm a
nd
up
dat
ed
cata
log
ue
is b
ein
g p
rod
uce
d, w
hic
h
ho
no
rs it
s u
nce
rtai
nti
es
and
re
gio
nal
dif
fere
nce
s in
qu
alit
y an
d e
xte
nt.
GE
M w
ill p
rod
uce
a g
lob
al d
atab
ase
of
acti
ve f
ault
s an
d s
eis
mic
so
urc
es,
as s
eis
mic
haz
ard
ass
ess
me
nts
curr
en
tly
do
no
t co
nsi
de
r fa
ult
s at
all,
or
do
so
on
ly s
par
ing
ly b
eca
use
the
re
qu
isit
e f
ault
dat
a ar
e a
bse
nt
or
inad
eq
uat
e. T
he
pro
ject
will
bu
ild
up
pre
vio
us
glo
bal
pro
ject
s, b
ut
will
also
co
ver
ne
w a
reas
. A h
arm
on
ize
d
suit
e o
f G
rou
nd
Mo
tio
n P
red
icti
on
Eq
uat
ion
s (G
MP
Es)
has
ne
ver
be
fore
be
en
de
velo
pe
d o
n a
glo
bal
sca
le.
Wit
hin
GE
M a
gro
up
of
inte
rnat
ion
al
exp
ert
s w
ill c
arry
ou
t th
is
Fig
ure
1: T
he
co
nce
ptu
al m
od
el o
f th
e G
lob
al E
arth
qu
ake
Mo
de
l
Se
ism
ic R
isk
Pro
bab
ility
In
ten
sity
L
oca
tio
n
Bu
ildin
gs
Pe
op
leP
hys
ical
So
cial
So
cio
-Ec
on
om
ic
Imp
ac
tS
eis
mic
Ha
zard
Exp
osu
reV
uln
era
bili
ty
Sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt
Sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt in
form
atio
n o
n
ear
thq
uak
e r
isk
(incl
ud
ing
so
cio
-
eco
no
mic
imp
act)
co
veri
ng
all
are
as
of
the
wo
rld
is a
ne
cess
ary
firs
t
ste
p t
ow
ard
s ri
sk a
war
en
ess
an
d
the
un
de
rtak
ing
of
mit
igat
ing
act
ion
.
Su
ch in
form
atio
n is
th
ere
fore
a
crit
ical
pu
zzle
-pie
ce f
or
min
imiz
ing
loss
of
life
, pro
pe
rty
dam
age
an
d
soci
al a
nd
eco
no
mic
dis
rup
tio
n d
ue
to e
arth
qu
ake
s, b
y le
adin
g t
o b
ett
er
bu
ildin
gs
cod
es
and
co
nst
ruct
ion
,
lan
d u
se p
lan
nin
g f
or
sust
ain
able
de
velo
pm
en
t, im
pro
ved
em
erg
en
cy
resp
on
se, p
rote
ctio
n o
f cr
itic
al
infr
astr
uct
ure
s an
d g
reat
er
acce
ss
to in
sura
nce
.
Th
ere
is h
ence
a n
eed
for
su
ch
eart
hq
uak
e ri
sk in
form
atio
n t
o
bec
ome
acce
ssib
le t
o a
wid
e
spec
tru
m o
f en
d-u
sers
an
d
ben
efic
iari
es. T
his
nee
d h
as
bee
n u
nd
erlin
ed b
y a
call
from
the
Org
aniz
atio
n o
f E
con
omic
Coo
per
atio
n a
nd
Dev
elop
men
t’s
(OE
CD
) Glo
bal
Sci
ence
For
um
for
the
dev
elop
men
t of
op
en-s
ourc
e
risk
ass
essm
ent
tool
s, a
nd
has
bee
n
con
firm
ed b
y a
vari
ety
of in
stit
uti
ons
and
org
aniz
atio
ns,
th
e sc
ien
tifi
c
com
mu
nit
y, a
nd
pu
blic
op
inio
n. I
n
resp
onse
to
the
nee
ds
outl
ined
abov
e, t
he
GE
M in
itia
tive
will
est
ablis
h
ind
epen
den
t, u
nif
orm
sta
nd
ard
s
to c
alcu
late
an
d c
omm
un
icat
e
eart
hq
uak
e ri
sk w
orld
wid
e, b
ased
on a
com
mon
fra
mew
ork:
a G
lob
al
Ear
thq
uak
e M
odel
.
By
fun
ctio
nin
g a
s a
com
mu
nit
y
effo
rt, t
he
GE
M in
itia
tive
will
pro
du
ce
a st
ate-
of-t
he-
art,
dyn
amic
, an
d
up
dat
able
mod
el f
or t
he
asse
ssm
ent
of s
eism
ic r
isk
wor
ldw
ide.
Th
e m
odel
will
be
bas
ed o
n t
he
pro
bab
ilist
ic
asse
ssm
ent
of e
arth
qu
ake
occu
rren
ce, t
he
resu
ltin
g g
rou
nd
mot
ion
s, a
nd
th
e im
pac
t th
ese
hav
e
on s
tru
ctu
res
and
pop
ula
tion
s in
term
s of
dam
age
and
soc
ial a
nd
econ
omic
loss
. It
is a
mod
el w
ith
un
der
lyin
g d
atab
ases
th
at c
an b
e
con
tin
uou
sly
imp
rove
d a
nd
en
larg
ed
wit
h f
utu
re d
ata
and
can
be
open
ly
acce
ssed
th
rou
gh
use
r-fr
ien
dly
soft
war
e an
d t
ools
for
dat
a an
alys
is
and
pro
du
ctio
n o
f re
sult
s.
Th
e g
lob
al e
arth
qu
ake
mo
de
l
is b
ein
g d
esi
gn
ed
an
d b
uilt
by
hu
nd
red
s o
f e
xpe
rts
and
pra
ctit
ion
ers
aro
un
d t
he
wo
rld
.
Th
e g
oal
s ar
e t
o in
corp
ora
te s
tate
-
of-
the
-art
ad
van
ces,
en
sure
th
at
less
-mo
nit
ore
d a
reas
of
ou
r g
lob
e
are
als
o c
ov
ere
d, a
nd
est
ablis
h
un
ifo
rm s
tan
dar
ds
that
allo
w f
or
risk
co
mp
aris
on
s b
etw
ee
n c
ou
ntr
ies
and
re
gio
ns,
an
d f
or
be
nch
mar
kin
g
ou
tpu
t o
bta
ine
d t
hro
ug
h o
the
r
sou
rce
s. T
he
mo
de
l will
re
fle
ct t
he
ne
ed
s, k
no
wle
dg
e, a
nd
dat
a o
f a
var
iety
of
en
d-u
sers
th
rou
gh
GE
M’s
ext
en
siv
e p
artn
er-
ne
two
rk. S
uch
par
tne
rsh
ips
are
ess
en
tial
in m
akin
g
sure
th
at t
he
info
rmat
ion
re
ach
es
the
pe
op
le t
hat
ne
ed
it.
Th
e m
od
el i
nc
lud
es
a s
oc
io-
ec
on
om
ic im
pa
ct
mo
du
le in
a
dd
itio
n t
o h
aza
rd a
nd
ris
k
(exp
osu
re, v
uln
era
bili
ty)
mo
du
les
Inte
gra
tio
n o
f th
e t
hre
e m
od
ule
s
wit
hin
a c
om
mo
n in
fras
tru
ctu
re w
ill
lead
to
on
e “
mo
de
l” f
or
seis
mic
ris
k
asse
ssm
en
t. (
Fig
ure
1).
So
cio
-Eco
no
mic
Im
pac
t re
fers
to t
ho
se c
on
seq
ue
nce
s b
eyo
nd
dir
ect
loss
an
d d
amag
e t
o p
eo
ple
,
bu
ildin
gs,
an
d c
riti
cal i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
,
such
as
the
imp
act
on
po
ve
rty,
on
re
lief
and
re
cov
ery
ne
ed
s, o
n
lon
g-t
erm
bu
dg
eti
ng
, on
pro
du
ct
de
man
d, e
tc. W
ith
in t
he
sco
pe
of
GE
M a
n in
tern
atio
nal
co
nso
rtiu
m
will
de
ve
lop
a t
oo
lbo
x o
f m
eth
od
s
for
soci
al a
nd
eco
no
mic
imp
act
anal
ysis
inco
rpo
rati
ng
th
e n
ee
ds
of
dif
fere
nt
typ
es
of
use
rs a
nd
are
aim
ed
at
the
sh
ort
, me
diu
m,
and
lon
g t
erm
at
dif
fere
nt
scal
es
(loca
l, re
gio
nal
, an
d n
atio
nal
). T
he
GE
M w
ill s
ign
ific
an
tly
im
pro
ve
ea
rth
qu
ak
e r
isk
ass
ess
me
nt
for
the
wh
ole
glo
be
. G
EM
op
era
tes
ac
co
rdin
g t
o f
ive
–ye
ar
wo
rkin
g p
rog
ram
s, o
f w
hic
h t
he
fir
st s
tart
ed
in 2
00
9 a
nd
will
resu
lt i
n t
he
pre
sen
tati
on
of
a f
irst
fu
lly-f
ea
ture
d v
ers
ion
of
the
glo
ba
l e
art
hq
ua
ke
mo
de
l b
y t
he
en
d o
f 2
01
3. T
he
fo
llow
-
ing
wo
rkin
g p
rog
ram
fo
rese
es
ext
en
sio
n o
f th
e m
od
el a
nd
im-
pro
ve
me
nt
of
the
to
ols
. Th
e f
irst
ve
rsio
n o
f th
e g
lob
al e
art
h-
qu
ak
e m
od
el i
s in
no
va
tiv
e in
a n
um
be
r o
f w
ay
s:
Sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rtSSS
tate
-of-
the
-ar
M
6 s
ince
19
70
US
GS
AN
SS
ca
talo
g
71
Re
lief/
Re
cov
ery
/Mit
igat
ion
Lo
cal/
Re
gio
nal
/ N
atio
nal
Co
st-b
en
efi
tIn
pu
t-O
utp
ut
Mo
de
ls
72
Pro
ce
ed
s fr
om
th
e 2
01
0 U
R F
oru
mG
lob
al A
sse
ssm
en
t R
ep
ort
Glo
bal
Ear
thq
uak
e M
od
el
Co
ntr
ibu
tors
to
20
10
O
utr
ea
ch
Me
eti
ng
Ro
ss S
tein
, US
GS
An
selm
Sm
olk
a, M
un
ich
RE
Cla
ud
io B
oe
ttch
er,
Zu
rich
Fin
anci
al S
erv
ice
s
Min
g L
ee
, AIR
Wo
rld
wid
e
Ro
wan
Do
ug
las,
Will
is
Lo
uis
Gri
tzo
, FM
Glo
bal
Bri
an T
uck
er,
Ge
oh
azar
ds
Inte
rnat
ion
al
Ch
arle
s S
caw
tho
rn, S
PA
Ris
k
Jo
che
n Z
sch
au, G
FZ
He
lmh
olt
z C
en
tre
Do
me
nic
o G
iard
ini,
Sw
iss
Se
ism
olo
gic
al S
erv
ice
Mu
staf
a E
rdik
, Kan
dill
i Ob
serv
ato
ry a
nd
Ear
thq
uak
e R
ese
arch
In
stit
ute
Rav
i Sin
ha,
In
dia
n I
nst
itu
te o
f Te
chn
olo
gy
Bo
mb
ay
An
dre
w E
no
w, I
CS
U –
Re
gio
nal
Off
ice
fo
r A
fric
a
An
dre
w K
ing
, GN
S S
cie
nce
Do
me
nic
o G
iard
ini,
Sw
iss
Se
ism
olo
gic
al S
erv
ice
He
len
Cro
wle
y, G
EM
Fo
un
dat
ion
Jo
hn
Ad
ams,
Can
ada
Ge
olo
gic
al S
urv
ey
Dm
itry
Sto
rch
ak, I
nte
rnat
ion
al S
eis
mo
log
ical
Ce
ntr
e (
ISC
)
An
ne
mar
ie C
rist
op
he
rse
n, G
NS
Sci
en
ce
Car
ola
Di A
less
and
ro, P
acif
ic E
arth
qu
ake
En
gin
ee
rin
g C
en
ter
(PE
ER
)
Co
rné
Kre
em
er,
Un
ive
rsit
y o
f N
ev
ada
Ro
bin
Sp
en
ce, C
amb
rid
ge
Arc
hit
ect
ura
l
Re
sear
ch L
td.
Le
on
ard
o G
arri
do
, GE
M F
ou
nd
atio
n
He
len
Cro
wle
y, G
EM
Fo
un
dat
ion
Se
bas
tian
Be
nth
all,
Op
en
Ge
o
Ch
ris
Ho
lme
s, O
pe
nG
eo
Mar
co P
agan
i, G
EM
Fo
un
dat
ion
Vit
or
Silv
a, G
EM
Fo
un
dat
ion
Be
n W
yss,
GE
M F
ou
nd
atio
n
Om
ar C
ard
ano
, CA
PR
A
Kat
ie F
ilbe
rt, O
pe
nS
tre
etM
ap
Fra
nci
s G
he
squ
iere
, Wo
rld
Ban
k
Ch
ris
Ho
lme
s, O
pe
nG
eo
Bre
tt H
orv
ath
, Re
-vis
ion
lab
Jo
hn
Cro
wle
y, S
TAR
-TID
ES
ear
thq
uak
e r
isk
calc
ula
tio
ns
and
risk
co
mm
un
icat
ion
, in
corp
ora
tin
g
the
late
st t
ech
no
log
ies
for
shar
ing
dat
a b
etw
ee
n u
sers
. Th
is in
clu
de
s
too
ls a
llow
ing
co
nti
nu
ou
s u
pd
ate
s
and
co
ntr
ibu
tio
ns
to G
EM
’s d
ata
and
mo
de
ls.
GE
M a
t th
e c
om
mu
nit
y le
ve
l
An
act
ive
use
r-co
mm
un
ity
and
par
tne
rsh
ips
are
ing
red
ien
ts t
hat
sup
po
rt in
itia
l use
of
the
GE
M t
oo
ls
and
th
e s
ub
seq
ue
nt
pro
mo
tio
n
of
the
info
rmat
ion
co
min
g o
ut
of
it. A
n a
ctiv
e u
ser-
com
mu
nit
y is
sup
po
rte
d b
y u
ser-
de
fin
ed
to
ols
and
a p
latf
orm
th
at a
llow
s fo
r
shar
ing
of
dat
a an
d e
xpe
rie
nce
s.
Th
ere
is, h
ow
eve
r, a
n im
po
rtan
t ro
le
for
use
rs t
o a
ct a
s in
term
ed
iary
and
“tr
ansl
ate
” th
e in
form
atio
n
com
ing
ou
t o
f G
EM
fo
r lo
cal n
ee
ds.
Th
is r
eq
uir
es
go
od
un
de
rsta
nd
ing
of
the
so
ftw
are
, an
d G
EM
will
the
refo
re d
ep
loy
tech
no
log
y
tran
sfe
r m
eth
od
s (m
anu
als,
tra
inin
g
mo
du
les,
wo
rksh
op
s), e
spe
cial
ly
in a
reas
wh
ere
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
too
ls a
nd
dat
a ar
e c
urr
en
tly
less
avai
lab
le. R
isk
asse
ssm
en
t, h
ow
eve
r,
is c
om
ple
x, a
nd
no
n-e
xpe
rts
will
no
t b
e a
ble
to
use
th
e f
ull
GE
M
app
licat
ion
th
em
selv
es.
Fo
r th
ese
be
ne
fici
arie
s, in
clu
din
g t
ho
se a
t
the
co
mm
un
ity
leve
l, th
ere
will
be
too
ls t
o s
up
po
rt u
nd
ers
tan
din
g o
f
risk
an
d w
he
re p
oss
ible
to
ols
fo
r
(de
cisi
on
-mak
ing
on
) ri
sk r
ed
uct
ion
acti
viti
es.
Th
e c
om
mu
nit
y an
d t
he
org
aniz
atio
ns
rep
rese
nti
ng
th
em
will
be
fre
e t
o b
uild
co
mp
lem
en
tary
too
ls/a
pp
licat
ion
s w
he
re t
he
y se
e a
ne
ed
. GE
M w
ill c
olla
bo
rate
inte
nsi
vely
wit
h it
s p
artn
er
ne
two
rk in
ord
er
to s
erv
e t
he
se b
en
efi
ciar
ies.
In
clo
se c
oo
pe
rati
on
wit
h t
he
re
gio
ns,
GE
M w
ill w
ork
on
loca
l pro
ject
s th
at
de
mo
nst
rate
th
e p
ote
nti
al o
f th
e
use
of
GE
M f
or
(pro
mo
tio
n o
f) r
isk
red
uci
ng
act
ivit
ies.
Fu
ture
de
ve
lop
me
nts
Th
e cr
eati
on o
f a
com
mu
nit
y-ow
ned
glo
bal
ear
thq
uak
e m
odel
is a
hu
ge
effo
rt. B
y 2
01
3 t
he
firs
t fu
lly-
feat
ure
d m
odel
an
d r
elat
ed t
ools
and
sof
twar
e w
ill b
e p
rese
nte
d.
Th
is m
odel
is a
fra
mew
ork
incl
ud
ing
firs
t d
atas
ets,
ben
chm
arks
, an
d
met
hod
olog
ies,
bu
t th
ese
nee
d t
o
be
com
ple
men
ted
. For
exa
mp
le, t
he
exp
osu
re d
atab
ase
of t
he
firs
t ve
rsio
n
will
not
incl
ud
e b
uild
ing
ag
gre
gat
es,
uti
lity
net
wor
ks (w
ater
, was
te w
ater
,
ener
gy,
gas
), tr
ansp
orta
tion
sys
tem
s
(roa
d, r
ailw
ays,
har
bor
s), f
ire-
fig
hti
ng
syst
ems,
etc
. Th
e fi
rst
vers
ion
will
incl
ud
e th
e la
test
tec
hn
olog
ies
and
tool
s fo
r d
ata
cap
turi
ng
, an
d e
xplo
res
tech
nol
ogie
s su
ch a
s cr
owd
sou
rcin
g,
bu
t su
ch t
ech
nol
ogie
s co
nst
antl
y
evol
ve a
nd
sh
ould
be
inco
rpor
ated
into
th
e g
lob
al e
arth
qu
ake
mod
el.
Fu
rth
erm
ore,
mod
elin
g o
f so
cio-
econ
omic
imp
act
and
too
ls t
o an
alyz
e
it w
ill d
evel
op a
t a
rap
id p
ace.
Th
ere
is
mu
ch p
oten
tial
in f
utu
re in
clu
sion
of
met
hod
olog
ies
and
too
ls in
th
e m
odel
,
and
als
o fo
r to
ols
to b
e b
uilt
on
top
of t
he
mod
el t
hat
will
be
inp
ut
for
dis
aste
r ri
sk m
anag
emen
t: d
ecis
ion
-
mak
ing
, aw
aren
ess
rais
ing
, an
d r
isk
mit
igat
ion
.
pro
ject
lead
ing
to
th
e f
ou
rth
com
po
ne
nt,
th
ere
by
bas
ing
the
mse
lve
s o
n t
he
mo
st r
ece
nt
adv
ance
me
nts
in t
he
fie
ld, w
hile
inte
ract
ing
wit
h a
ll re
gio
ns.
Th
e
inte
gra
tio
n o
f a
sig
nif
ican
tly
imp
rov
ed
glo
bal
ge
od
eti
c st
rain
rat
e
mo
de
l is
the
last
glo
bal
co
mp
on
en
t
wit
hin
GE
M’s
Haz
ard
Mo
du
le.
Inco
rpo
rati
on
is r
ele
van
t b
eca
use
ear
thq
uak
es
rele
ase
acc
um
ula
ted
cru
stal
str
ain
, an
d h
en
ce s
trai
n r
ate
is a
pro
xy f
or
ear
thq
uak
e p
ote
nti
al.
Sei
smic
ris
k is
def
ined
wit
hin
GE
M
as t
he
pro
du
ct o
f h
azar
d, s
eism
ic
vuln
erab
ility
(th
e p
rob
abili
ty o
f lo
ss
giv
en a
leve
l of
gro
un
d s
hak
ing
),
and
exp
osu
re (t
he
elem
ents
at
risk
—m
ain
ly b
uild
ing
s, c
riti
cal
infr
astr
uct
ure
, an
d p
eop
le).
Th
e ri
sk m
odu
le o
f th
e g
lob
al
eart
hq
uak
e m
odel
als
o co
mp
rise
s
five
com
pon
ents
: a G
EM
On
tolo
gy
and
Tax
onom
y, a
Glo
bal
Ear
thq
uak
e
Con
seq
uen
ces
Dat
abas
e, a
Glo
bal
Exp
osu
re D
atab
ase,
In
ven
tory
Dat
a C
aptu
re T
ools
, an
d G
lob
al
Vu
lner
abili
ty E
stim
atio
n M
eth
ods.
A
ded
icat
ed o
nto
log
y an
d t
axon
omy
will
mak
e su
re t
hat
th
e sa
me
term
inol
ogy
and
ap
plic
atio
n o
f
con
cep
ts is
use
d t
hro
ug
hou
t th
e
pro
ject
by
all c
olla
bor
ator
s. T
he
glo
bal
con
seq
uen
ces
dat
abas
e w
ill le
ad t
o
un
ifor
m g
lob
al d
ata
and
sta
nd
ard
s
for
dat
a co
llect
ion
on
bu
ildin
g
dam
age,
dam
age
to li
felin
es a
nd
oth
er in
fras
tru
ctu
re, g
rou
nd
fai
lure
(liq
uef
acti
on, e
tc.),
hu
man
cas
ual
ties
,
soci
al d
isru
pti
on, a
nd
fin
anci
al a
nd
econ
omic
loss
. Fu
rth
erm
ore
GE
M
will
cre
ate
the
firs
t op
en d
atab
ase
of
glo
bal
bu
ildin
g s
tock
an
d p
opu
lati
on
dis
trib
uti
on c
onta
inin
g t
he
spat
ial,
stru
ctu
ral,
and
occ
up
ancy
-rel
ated
info
rmat
ion
nec
essa
ry f
or d
amag
e,
loss
, an
d h
um
an c
asu
alty
est
imat
ion
mod
els.
Th
e u
se o
f sa
telli
te im
ager
y is
bec
omin
g in
crea
sin
gly
imp
orta
nt
for
risk
ass
essm
ent
and
th
eref
ore
tool
s
will
be
dev
elop
ed t
hat
can
cap
ture
and
tra
nsf
er h
igh
-res
olu
tion
imag
ery
for
the
exp
osu
re a
nd
con
seq
uen
ces
dat
abas
es.
Oth
er t
ools
will
be
dev
elop
ed t
o m
erg
e d
ata
colle
cted
from
Rem
ote
Sen
sin
g w
ith
dat
a
acq
uir
ed f
rom
Dir
ect
Ob
serv
atio
n.
Th
e la
st c
omp
onen
t w
ith
in t
he
risk
mod
ule
will
pro
vid
e g
lob
al s
tan
dar
ds
for
vuln
erab
ility
est
imat
ion
(i.e
.,
the
esti
mat
ion
of
bu
ildin
g d
amag
e,
bot
h s
tru
ctu
ral a
nd
non
-str
uct
ura
l,
and
ass
ocia
ted
soc
ial a
nd
eco
nom
ic
loss
) usi
ng
a n
um
ber
of
dif
fere
nt
met
hod
s (e
mp
iric
al, a
nal
ytic
al, e
xper
t
opin
ion
) an
d a
ran
ge
of m
easu
res
of g
rou
nd
-mot
ion
inte
nsi
ty. T
he
inte
rnat
ion
al c
onso
rtiu
m w
orki
ng
on t
his
com
pon
ent
will
als
o p
rop
ose
def
ault
est
imat
ion
s, d
emon
stra
te t
he
met
hod
s in
a p
arti
cula
r re
gio
n, a
nd
pro
pos
e m
eth
ods
for
un
cert
ain
ty
asse
ssm
ent.
Th
ere
is in
ten
siv
e
co
op
era
tio
n o
n a
reg
ion
al s
ca
le
In a
ll re
gio
ns
of
the
wo
rld
GE
M
Re
gio
nal
Pro
gra
ms
will
be
de
plo
yed
.
Th
ese
are
ind
ep
en
de
ntl
y-ru
n
reg
ion
al p
roje
cts
carr
ied
ou
t u
nd
er
the
GE
M u
mb
rella
, in
co
nfo
rman
ce
to G
EM
sta
nd
ard
s an
d g
oal
s.
So
me
are
se
t u
p a
s d
ed
icat
ed
bo
tto
m-u
p p
roje
cts,
wh
ile in
oth
er
case
s co
llab
ora
tio
n is
so
ug
ht
wit
h
on
go
ing
pro
ject
s. G
EM
Re
gio
nal
Pro
gra
ms
invo
lve
loca
l exp
ert
s
wh
o u
se G
EM
so
ftw
are
, ge
ne
rate
loca
l dat
a, v
alid
ate
th
e d
ata
and
stan
dar
ds
that
are
cre
ate
d o
n
a g
lob
al le
vel,
and
se
rve
as
a
star
tin
g p
oin
t fo
r w
ork
sho
ps
and
trai
nin
gs
in t
he
re
gio
n. T
he
var
iou
s
pro
gra
ms
will
co
mp
lem
en
t th
e
glo
bal
dat
ase
ts, e
spe
cial
ly t
he
inst
rum
en
tal c
atal
og
ue
an
d s
eis
mic
sou
rce
dat
abas
e f
or
haz
ard
an
d
the
exp
osu
re a
nd
co
nse
qu
en
ces
dat
abas
e f
or
risk
, an
d c
on
trib
ute
to
refi
ne
me
nt
of
me
tho
do
log
ies
and
stan
dar
ds.
So
me
re
gio
nal
pro
gra
ms
incl
ud
e c
ity
sce
nar
ios
and
loca
l
de
mo
nst
rati
on
pro
ject
s.
GE
M w
ill p
rod
uc
e o
pe
n
sou
rce
so
ftw
are
an
d
use
r-d
efi
ne
d t
oo
ls
GE
M’s
IT
arc
hit
ect
ure
is b
ase
d
on
th
e la
test
de
velo
pm
en
ts in
IT p
roce
sse
s an
d in
fras
tru
ctu
re.
Op
en
GE
M—
GE
M’s
ris
k as
sess
me
nt
soft
war
e is
cu
rre
ntl
y b
ein
g p
rep
are
d
for
op
en
so
urc
e r
ele
ase
. Th
e
‘en
gin
e’ o
f th
e s
oft
war
e w
ill a
llow
for
calc
ula
tio
ns
on
a g
lob
al le
vel,
and
th
ere
fore
it n
ee
ds
to b
e a
ble
to
inco
rpo
rate
dat
a, s
tan
dar
ds,
mo
de
ls,
and
me
tho
ds
de
velo
pe
d b
y th
e
inte
rnat
ion
al c
om
mu
nit
y th
rou
gh
the
Glo
bal
Co
mp
on
en
ts a
nd
Re
gio
nal
Pro
gra
ms.
By
bu
ildin
g a
co
mm
un
ity
of
de
velo
pe
rs a
nd
exp
ert
s
aro
un
d O
pe
nG
EM
de
velo
pm
en
t;
the
so
ftw
are
, th
e t
oo
ls a
nd
th
e
app
licat
ion
s b
uilt
on
to
p o
f it
will
be
de
velo
pe
d c
olla
bo
rati
vely
an
d
con
tin
uo
usl
y te
ste
d. O
pe
nG
EM
will
be
pla
tfo
rm-i
nd
ep
en
de
nt,
mo
du
lar
(usi
ng
ob
ject
-ori
en
ted
lan
gu
age
),
fle
xib
le (
as t
o a
llow
fo
r fu
ture
mu
lti-
haz
ard
cal
cula
tio
ns)
, exp
and
able
(in
term
s o
f m
eth
od
olo
gie
s e
mp
loye
d),
and
sca
lab
le. I
n o
rde
r to
se
rve
the
ne
ed
s o
f va
rio
us
use
rs, a
use
r-fr
ien
dly
inte
rfac
e is
be
ing
con
stru
cte
d e
nco
mp
assi
ng
to
ols
and
so
ftw
are
fo
r tr
ansp
are
nt
M
6 s
ince
19
70
US
GS
AN
SS
cat
alog
73
Emily Paterson Adrien Oth Ray Willeman Patrick Meier Giampero Renzoni Rojas Andrew Maskrey John Schn
Nobusuke Hasegawa Carrie Freeman Jon Hall Ming Lee Joost Beckers Pablo Suarez Kenneth Verosub Jim
Dingel Andrew Turner Marcial Blondet Omer Aydan Danijel Schorlemmer Chris Holmes Abhas Kumar Jha H
Yamazaki Manfred Krischke Yvonne Tsikata Daniel Fagbuyi Liz Holcombe Antonio Zugaldia John Harrald Pe
Brown, Jr. Lee Clarke Charles Atcheson Gaetano Vivo Fernando Ramirez Cortes Benito M. Pacheco Fred T
Muga Ramesh Malla Kimberly Campbell Ben Wyss Salim Sawaya Anna Burzykowska Jeremy Collymore Osm
Martin Ross Gartley Shyam KC Aiga Stokenberga Eduardo Reinoso Angulo Domenico Giardini Ruth Stiver D
Sheena Siddiqui Ole Nielsen Luis Corrales Olivier Mahul Yumiko Tateshita Rosario Zavaleta Meza Michele
Todd Khozein Michel Matera Edgar Uribe Mary Lou Zoback Surja Sharma Rui Pinho Martin Kaufman Juliett
Fatima Zehra Shah Lauren Alexander Augustine Jonathan Becker Douglas Storey Paolo Reggiani Patrick Sve
Debbie Hill Thomas Graziano Mustafa Erdik John Adams Richard Murnane Trish Barrett Sarah Klucking Pete
Rierola Vladimir Stenek David Robinson Andoniaina Ratsimamanga Francisca Garcia-Sicilia Laura Petersberg
Pacheco-Weber Alexander Lotsch Nadine Dulac Helliot Amilcar Richard Bissell Armando Eduardo Guzman
Magistrale Timothy Tinker Christian Klose Aramide Adebola Marco Pagani Nicole Williams Luis Yamin Rav
Laura Dorling Pedro Bastidas Byron Mason Miguel Robles Andrew King Ana Lucia Hill Kate Chapman Kim
Liliana Carreño Tibaduiza Malinda Braland Chris Chiesa Gregory Yetman Sana Kh.H. Agha Al Nimer Michael D
Marietta Patricia Larenas Linnemann Norimitsu Kamimori Ishwori Aryal Steve Cunnion Christoph Koettl Ed
John Hlatywayo Nikhil da Victoria Lobo Sudhir K. Jain Alix Roumagnac Ron Eguchi Claudio Boettcher Aires Z
Susan Wheeler-Wilderotter Oscar Anil Ishizawa Escudero Inderjit Claire Bradley Michael Lyon Rafael Ore
Applegate Mark Rasmuson Clara Champalle Carola Di Alessandro Nicodemus Omoyo Nyandiko Michael Sieber
Hanna Jessica Menk William Dick Jacqueline Kendall Olushola Sodeko Fareeha Iqbal Jordi Torres Miralles Da
Dolce Fabio Sabetta Gari Mayberry Julie Serakos Francis Raven Maritza del Socorro Bustillo Ross Stein Zo
Firuzabadi Jean Pierre Asté Concepcion Aisa Otin Austin Francis Louis Kilroy Daniel Marshall Frederic Sgar
Dmitry Storchak Alicia Livinski Hellen Mbao Chilupe John Roos Katherine Wisniewski Patrice White Gustavo
Daniele Reinhard Mechler Fernando Ramirez Cortes Jorge Escurra Cabrera José Angel Villalobos Nandita P
Sherbinin Christopher Gentles Roosevelt Compere Robert Belk Nicole Keller Gerardo Suarez Malcolm Anders
Rodolfo Saragoni Brian Rosborough Ryan Engstrom Ulrich Cedric Myboto Hugo Yepez Julio Serje Galen Bu
Bijan Khazai Jehanne Aouab Nisha Krishnan Paul Somerville Nigel Snoad Ashwin Kumar Niels B. Holm-Nielsen
Mutter Maria Elena Soria Margareta Wahlstrom Brett Jones John A. Kelmelis Omar Dario Cardona Ruedige
Narcisse Zahibo Juan Gaviria Edwin Welles Sergio Lagomarsino Ajeet Oak William Jenkins Hannah Brenkert
Sergio Mora Emily Price Koichi Kikuchi Leonardo Garrido Brian Tucker Oscar Apodaca Brad Kiesling Deborah
Tsuneki Brian Scully Robin Spence Werner Corrales-Leal Laurent David Vaisse Jochen Zschau Guido Lemoin
Sergio Alberto Ochoa Peter Suhadolc Svetlana Langman Arrietta Chakos Helen Crowley Jermaine Christo
Cogliano Sheila King McFerran Emily So Sandro Parodi David Green Julia Lendorfer Denise Mickalide Scott Ed
Enow Anselm Smolka Eladio Zarate Hernandez Guillaume Dulac Alan Wright Ernst Groningen, van Modares
Lienlaf Nova Sharon Kent Ray Durrheim Marjorie Greene Lloyd Lynch Kikuchi Kouichi Matthijs Kok David Ke
Vermeiren Ana María Torres Munoz Semelfort Ronald Manu Gupta Ulrich K. H. M. Schmitt Stefano Parolai Em
am Ali, Helliot Amilcar, Edward Anderson, Malcolm Anderson, Eduardo Reinoso Angulo, Jehanne Aouab, Oscar
rnold, Ishwori Aryal, Maya Assaf, Jean Pierre Asté, Charles Atcheson, Lauren Augustine, Omer Aydan, Edmon
ergio Barrientos, Pedro Bastidas, Paolo Bazzurro, Jonathan Becker, Joost Beckers, Ulugbek Begaliev, Robert
Bettencourt, Vicki Bier, Anthony Bigio, Linda Billings, Richard Bissell, Marcial Blondet, Claudio Boettcher, Eric
Maritza del Socorro Bustillo, Eric Calais, Thomas Callahan, Gian Michele Calvi, Djibril Camara, Kimberly Campbell,
rietta Chakos, Clara Champalle, Jim Chandler, Kate Chapman, Chris Chiesa, Hellen Mbao Chilupe, Annemarie
ymore, Miriam Colombi, Kim Colopinto, Roosevelt Compere, Aires Zulian Nunes da Conceicao, Joseph Connery,
obo, Peter Dailey, Michele Daly, Paul R. Daniele, Alex de Sherbinin, Uwe Deichmann, Davide Del Cogliano, Sergio
mod Mani Dixit, Mauro Dolce, Michael Done, James Done, Kevin Donovan, Ioana Monica Dorhoi, Laura Dorling,
wards, Ron Eguchi, Daniele Ehrlich, Inas J. Ellaham, Ryan Engstrom, Achuo Enow, Mustafa Erdik, Jorge Escurra
e Fetterman, Katie Filbert, Reza Firuzabadi, Tiguist Fisseha, Emma Dinorah Flores de Cuellar, Olivier Francis,
-Sicilia, Leonardo Garrido, Ross Gartley, Paolo Gasparini, Juan Gaviria, Christopher Gentles, Fabio Germagnoli,
s Graziano, David Green, Marjorie Greene, Bill Greer, Louis Gritzo, Ernst Groningen, van, Seth Guikema, Polat
n Hanfling, Kevval Andrea Hanna, John Harrald, Nobusuke Hasegawa, Karen Helbrecht, Sean Herron, Karel
hris Holmes, William T Holmes, Niels B. Holm-Nielsen, Modaressi Hormoz, Brett Horvath, Daniel Huaco Oviedo,
William Jenkins, Abhas Kumar Jha, Alex Ricardo Jimenez Cruz, Sharon Jones, Brett Jones, Bo Juza, Norimitsu
on Kent, David Kerridge, Bijan Khazai, Todd Khozein, Gladys Kianji, Brad Kiesling, Hiywot Kifle, Koichi Kikuchi,
on, Christoph Koettl, Matthijs Kok, Kikuchi Kouichi, Carolyn Kousky, Manfred Krischke, Nisha Krishnan, Daniel
tlana Langman, Marietta Patricia Larenas Linnemann, Pande Lazarevski, Angela Leal Pineda, Ming Lee, Guido
ois Clark, Alexander Lotsch, Mark Lucas, Jessica Ludy, Lloyd Lynch, Bradley Michael Lyon, Aubrey Machyo,
to Marroquin, Daniel Marshall, Jeff Martin, Mabel Marulanda Fraume, Andrew Maskrey, Byron Mason, Michel
m L. McGill, Nancy McNabb, Reinhard Mechler, Patrick Meier, Carlo Meletti, Jessica Menk, Charmel Menzel,
eno Muga, Francis Muraya, Richard Murnane, Roger Musson, John Mutter, Ulrich Cedric Myboto, Amy Ndiaye
a, Peter O’Dell, Laura Olson, Jacob Opadeyi, Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Rafael Oreamuno, Adrien Oth, Benito M.
ardeshi, Sandro Parodi, Stefano Parolai, Mili Parra, Ed Parsons, Edward Parsons, Imtiyaz A. Parvez, Fernando
trine Phillips, Cathy Pickering, Roger V. Pierce, Rui Pinho, Nandita Pinisetti, Kyriazis Pitilakis, Keith Porter, Peter
amirez Cortes, Mark Rasmuson, Andoniaina Ratsimamanga, Francis Raven, Paolo Reggiani, Eduardo Reinoso,
iguel Robles, Iris Beatriz Roca Rey Pazos, Chris Rohjan, Semelfort Ronald, John Roos, David Ropeik, Vanessa
Royce, Diana Marcela Rubiano, Claire Rubin, Elizabeth Sabet, Fabio Sabetta, Hamid Sadegh-Azar, Marc Peter
arles Scawthorn, Ulrich K. H. M. Schmitt, John Schneider, Danijel Schorlemmer, Brian Scully, Clark Seipt, Julie
l Siebert, Mitulo Silengo, Vitor Silva, Frederick Simon, Ravi Sinha,
Snoad, Emily So, Olushola Sodeko, Paul Somerville, Maria Elena
k, Kim Stephens, Tim Stephens, Ruth Stiver, Mladen Stojic, Aiga
ter Svekla, Patrick Svenburg, Nikoshi Tamura, Yumiko Tateshita,
andivar, Jordi Torres Miralles, Ana María Torres Munoz, Zoe Elena
Uribe, Edgar Uribe, Laurent David Vaisse, Osmar Eleazar Velasco
no Vivo, Eugen Voit, Maria Vorel, Ruediger Wagner, Margareta
ann Wenzel, Susan Wheeler-Wilderotter, Patrice White, Olga
g Xu, Pradeep Yadav, Fumio Yamazaki, Luis Yamin, Hugo Yepez,
merman, Mary Lou Zoback, Jochen Zschau, Antonio Zugaldia
Jim Chandler, Kate Chapman, Chris Chiesa, Hellen Mbao Chilupe, Ann
opinto, Roosevelt Compere, Aires Zulian Nunes da Conceicao, Joseph C
Pauul RRRRRRRRRRRRR. Daniele, Alex de Sherbinin, Uwwwwwe Deeeicchmaann,,,,, Davidddddde DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDeeeeeeeeeeeel Cogliano
chhhael Done, James Done, Kevin Donnnnnovaaaan, Ioana Monica DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDoooooooooooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrhoiiiii, LLLLLLaura
h, IInaaas J. Ellaham, Ryan Engstrom, AAAAAchuuuo Enow, Mustafa Erdikkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Joooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrge
a FFFiruuuzabadi, Tiguist Fisseha, Emmaaaaa Dinnnnnorah Flores de Cuellar, OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOliviiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer
Gaaartleeey, Paolo Gasparini, Juan Gavirriia, CCCCChristopher Gentles, Fabiooooooo Geeeeeeeeeerm
rie Greeene, Bill Greer, Louis Gritzo, EEEEErnssssst Groningen, van, Seth GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGuikeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeem
na,,, Jooohn Harrald, Nobusuke Hasegaaaaawaaaa, Karen Helbrecht, Seannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerro
iellls B.. Holm-Nielsen, Modaressi Horrrrrmoooooz, Brett Horvath, Daaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnniiiiiel HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHuaco
a, Aleeeex Ricardo Jimenez Cruz, Sharooooon JJJJJJJJJones, Brett JJJJJJJJJJJoooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnneees, BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBoooooooooooooooooooooooo JJJJJJuza, No
Khhazaaai, Todd Khozein, Gladys Kianji, Braaaaaad Kiesling, Hiyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyywoooooooooooooooooottttttttttttttt Kifle, Koichi
Kokkkkkkk, KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKikuchi Kouichi, Carolyn Kouskyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy,,,,, Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaanfred Krischkeeeeeeee,, Niisssssssssssssssssssssssssssshhhha Krishnan
a LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLareeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeenas Linnemann, Pande Lazarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrevsssssssssssssssssski, Angela Leal Pinnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeedaaaaaaa, Ming Le
rk LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLucaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasssssssssssss, Jessica Ludy, Lloyd Lyyyyyyyyyyynnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnch,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Bradley Michael Lyonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubrey M
eff MMMMMMMMMMMMMMaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaartiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, MMMMabel Marulandaaa FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFrauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmmmmmme, Andrew Maskrey, Byroooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMaaaaaaaaaaaaaaason
inhard MMMMMMMMMMMMMeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeecccccccccccccccccccccchler, PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPaaaaaaaaaaaaatttttttttttrrrriiiicccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkk MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMeieerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCarlo Meletti, Jessica Menk, Chhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarmmmmmmmmmmmmmmeeeeeeeeeeel
ard Murnane, Rogeerrrrrrr MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMusson, John Mutter, Ulrich Cedric Myboto, AAAAAAAAAAmy
b O d i D li O D t R f l O Ad i Oth B
Understanding Risk Team
UNDERSTANDINGRISKInnovation in Disaster Risk Assessment
What is risk?Can we measure it?
If we understand it, can we manage it better?
The Understanding Risk: Innovation in Disaster Risk Assessment conference addressed these impor-tant questions. The event explored best practices in a variety of topics ranging from open source risk modeling to community-based risk assessments. New approaches in risk assess-ment were showcased, focusing on technological developments and the benefits of inclusive partnerships.
“An opportunity to find new partnerships that will enable us at the community level to really tap into this great world of high technology…
to help communities manage their own risk” —Daniel Kull, International Federation of Red Cross
“A rich and fecund arrangement of people … remarkable, rich content and a clearly vital motive to be here”
—Rowan Douglas, Willis Research Institute
“A gathering of people of many different backgrounds and interests but with one common denominator: a love to understand risk and
to try to provide answers” —Jose Angel Villalobos, Instituto Nacional de Seguros, Costa Rica
“Refreshing and relevant” —Dr. Ole Nielsen, Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction
www.understandrisk.org