u.s. department of energy’s office of science jerry elwood, director climate change research...

U.S. Department of Energy’sU.S. Department of Energy’s

Office of Office of ScienceScience

Jerry Elwood, DirectorClimate Change Research Division

Office of Biological and Environmental Research

BERAC MeetingDecember 6, 2005

Progress Toward Performance Measures for BER’s Climate

Change Research

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

BER Climate Change Research:BER Climate Change Research:Progress Toward Performance GoalsProgress Toward Performance Goals

Long-Term Performance Goal: Deliver improved climate data and models for policy makers to determine safe* level of greenhouse gases for the Earth’s system.

*In context of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) “safe” means a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system

Major Program Areas that Major Program Areas that Address the GoalAddress the Goal

1) Climate Forcing

• Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program - increase understanding of effects of clouds, water vapor, and aerosols on atmospheric radiative fluxes

• Atmospheric Science Program – aerosol properties and processes that affect forcing

• Terrestrial & Ocean Carbon Cycle Research – CO2 fluxes, carbon cycle processes that affect atmospheric CO2 concentration and thereby affect CO2 forcing

• Information & Data Management – greenhouse gas emission and concentration data

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Major Program Areas that Major Program Areas that Address the GoalAddress the Goal

2) Climate Change Modeling

• Climate Change Prediction Program – development, testing, and application of climate and earth system models to assess climate system responses to natural and human-induced forcing

3) Climate Change Response

• Program on Ecosystem Research – research to understand and model ecological responses to climatic and atmospheric changes

• Integrated Assessment Research – development of tools and models to assess environmental and economic costs and benefits of climate change and costs and benefits of different options for mitigating or adapting to climate change

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Sources of Key Sources of Key Uncertainties in Climate Uncertainties in Climate Change AssessmentsChange Assessments

(1) Future emissions and concentrations of GHGs

(2) Radiative forcing due to aerosols and clouds

(3) Climate sensitivity*

(4) Carbon Cycle-Climate feedbacks

(5) Response of natural and human systems to projected changes

*Climate sensitivity determines how much the climate will change for a given change in atmospheric composition. It is usually expressed as the eventual global-mean warming for a doubling of the CO2 concentration, and lies in the range of 1.5-4.5o C with 90% confidence

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U.S. Department of Energy FY 2006:FY 2006: Deliver new Deliver new measurements of clouds, measurements of clouds, especially in regions where especially in regions where observations are missingobservations are missing

Progress:

Reduced measurement uncertainties in water vapor concentrations from 25% to less than 3%

Developed new microwave radiometer for accurately measuring water vapor in highly arid conditions like the Arctic. (Deployed in 2005)

Developed ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) for 6 month to one year deployments

Deployed AMF at Pt. Reyes, CA, to investigate microphysical and radiative characteristics of marine stratus. Campaign collected data to better understand rate at which different types of aerosol particles are converted to cloud droplets and how these cloud droplets eventually grow to produce drizzle

FY 2006:FY 2006: Provide new cloud Provide new cloud measurements where measurements where observations are missingobservations are missing

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Progress:

FY 2006 - Deployed ARM mobile facility to Niamey, Niger (Africa) to measure effects of dust on cloud processes and properties


During the wet phase of the Australia monsoon (December-February) and the build-up to the wet phase (November), convection is a common occurrence at Darwin. The image illustrates the intense convection that typifies the monsoon build-up period.

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Progress:

January 2006 - conduct the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) IOP to study properties of tropical cirrus and the convection that leads to their formation


Progress:

Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) - focus on interactions between the land surface and early cumulus life cycle, especially the stages leading from cumulus humilis to cumulus congestus. Will cover period of 1-3 months and straddle winter wheat harvest when large changes in land surface leads to large changes in surface albedo, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux

ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) deployment to participate in Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) in Black Forest area of Germany in summer, 2007. Goal is to identify reasons for deficiencies in Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and to improve skill of mesoscale model forecasts with respect to precipitation

Requests for use of ARM Climate Research User Facility have exceeded capability to support

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FY 2007:FY 2007: Improved cloud Improved cloud simulations in a climate modelsimulations in a climate model

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ARM Parameterization Research Highlighted in Special Issue of Journal [August issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres (Vol. 110 No. D15)]

Nineteen Papers that

1. Assess current status of cloud simulations in GCMs

2. Report on a case study of cloud simulations during an ARM IOP

3. Describe developments of cloud parameterization algorithms using ARM data

4. Evaluate model cloud processes against ARM measurements

5. Describe results of cloud measurements

Completed analysis of the variability of the hydrologic cycle on a time scale of a few days or less, as simulated using the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) and a standard GCM, including a comparison with observations (FY 2005)

Performed and extensively analyzed high-resolution simulation of deepening diurnal convection over the Amazon (FY 2005)

Completed 15-year AMIP run with the MMF with extensive comparisons with both observations and a control run. Model produces realistic variability in response to ENSO (FY 2005)

Created super-parameterized version of Randall’s geodesic GCM that was developed under DOE-CCPP funding. Model currently being tested (FY 2005)

Completed development of radically new cloud-resolving model based on the vector vorticity equation (FY 2005)


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A Global Climate Model Column • Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (MMF) Approach to Modeling Clouds in Climate Models

• Role of clouds in controlling solar and thermal radiation onto and away from the earth is still the single largest uncertainty in climate models

• Influence of clouds on resolved scales in climate models is parameterized

• These parameterizations have a weak physical bases which introduces large sources of uncertainty in simulated responses of clouds to climate change, the associated feedback on climate, and climate sensitivity and projection of climate change

• MMF approach to cloud modeling consists of embedding a cloud resolving model (CRM) in each climate model grid cell

• Each CRM explicitly resolves cloud circulation and its influence on microphysical and radiative processes

• MMF scales much better than conventional climate models, permitting efficient parallelization on thousands of processors on some computing systems


FY 2007FY 2007: Improved cloud : Improved cloud simulations in a climate modelsimulations in a climate model

New representation of cloud overlap incorporated into GFDL and Met Service of Canada GCMs and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Numerical Weather Prediction model (FY 2005)

Developed and tested new microphysics scheme for use in mesoscale and climate models that predicts the hydrometeor number concentration and mixing ratio. Incorporation in the NCAR mesoscale model significantly improved predicted cloud phase and liquid water path (FY 2005)

Developed and tested new theory of heterogeneous ice nucleation, which was incorporated into a parcel model with explicit water and ice microphysics to simulate process of ice nucleation under transient thermodynamic conditions (FY 2005)

Developed and tested parameterizations of moist convection (diurnal cycle of convection over land and the transition from shallow to deep convection) (FY 2005)

Developed and validated new closure for the Zhang-McFarlane convection parameterization scheme (FY 2005)

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Expected progress on Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF):

• Examine boundary-layer processes, especially over the tropical continents, by performing experiments in which surface fluxes are computed on high-resolution grid of cloud-resolving model, and compared with control run

• Create new high-resolution global model, using hexagonal grid, and based on vector-vorticity cloud-resolving model. New model will be used to test Quasi-3D MMF idea

• Modify MMF to improve its simulation of deep convection and shallow Clouds. Evaluate modifications against observations


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Expected Progress

Develop and test new statistical cloud parameterization for the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM

Investigate physical processes in arctic clouds and tropical deep convective clouds and improve representation of these clouds in GCMs

Continue development and testing of cloud resolving models


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FY 2008:FY 2008: Measure critical Measure critical ecosystem responses to ecosystem responses to climate change for high priority climate change for high priority ecosystemsecosystems

Progress:

FY 2004 - documented responses of deciduous forest to 10 years of chronic manipulation of precipitation, showing that a 30% reduction in annual rainfall limited tree growth and decomposition of dead leaves on forest floor. Implications are reduced tree growth and possibly nutrient tie-up in dead leaves (reduced decomposition and nutrient cycling) under future climate scenarios that are dryer. Final data on forest response to 13 years of chronic changes in precipitation to be collected in FY 2006 and analyzed through FY 2007

FY 2004 - tested performance of 13 ecosystem models against 8 years of detailed independent field data from the forest ecosystem precipitation manipulation experiments. Results show models with more physiological detail perform better than more simplistic models. Also showed that models were better at predicting forest physiology with ample water than under water stress, indicating need to improve how models represent physiological response of trees to water stress

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Chronic growth effects are apparent after one decade.

Reduced decomposition with drying allowed carbon accumulation.

Understanding variable responses over time required multi-year observations.

Unexpected long-term result: dry plots yield higher leaf production.

Severe drought


FY 2006 – documented median enhancement of net primary productivity of trees at diverse sites exposed to 550 ppm CO2 of 23+/- 2%. Implications of findings are that direct enrichment effect of elevated CO2

on tree productivity must be included in models of terrestrial carbon cycling and terrestrial ecosystem responses to climatic and atmospheric changes

FY 2005 – documented that increased standing biomass of aspen-maple-birch trees exposed to elevated CO2 is partly counteracted when trees are also exposed to elevated ozone. Hence, both elevated CO2 and increasing tropospheric ozone must be considered in assessing direct effect of increasing greenhouse gases on tree growth and productivity

FY 2006-2008 – continue operation of DOE Free-Air CO2 Enrichment user facilities (sites in Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Tennessee) to reduce scientific uncertainty about effects of changes in atmospheric composition on the structure and functioning of major terrestrial ecosystems

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FY 2008:FY 2008: Measure critical Measure critical ecosystem responses to climate ecosystem responses to climate change for high priority change for high priority ecosystemsecosystems

The world’s largest study of ecological effects of changes in atmospheric composition is the DOE FACE Facility site in WI (multiple CCSP agencies use the site). Starting in 1997, both O3 and CO2 concentrations were increased 50% above ambient levels, singly and in combination (the site uses 12 “rings”).

Elevated O3 concentration (partly) counteracts benefits of elevated CO2.

Treatment + CO2 + O3 + CO2 and O3

Aspen stands + 35 % – 26 % – 4 %Aspen-birch stands + 66 % – 10 % + 24 %Aspen-maple stands + 74 % – 8 % + 38 %

Standing biomass (% differences) after 6 years, relative to ambient conditions

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Forest productivity increases in a CO2-enriched atmosphere: a synthesis of FACE experiments

Net primary productivity (NPP), the net amount of carbon fixed into organic matter) was analyzed in four free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments in forest stands

Response of forest NPP to ~550 ppm CO2 was highly conserved across a broad range of productivity, with a stimulation at the median of 23 2%

Surprising consistency of response across diverse sites provides a benchmark to evaluate predictions of ecosystem and global models

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U.S. Department of Energy FY 2008:FY 2008: Measure critical Measure critical ecosystem responses to climate ecosystem responses to climate change for high priority change for high priority ecosystemsecosystems


FY 2006 - complete facility construction and initiate data collection in DOE boreal forest warming experiment in central Manitoba

FY 2007 - complete study of effects of a rural-urban climatic gradient on ecosystem early succession

FY 2008 - initiate large (twelve 40 x 40 m field plots) experimental study of effects of altered precipitation on the physiology and health of pinon-juniper ecosystems in New Mexico

FY 2008 - initiate several individual research projects that address the question of whether ecosystems and their component organisms can “migrate” in response to climatic (generally moving northward and up slope with warming)

FY 2008 - initiate new research projects to quantify effects of various potential climatic changes on the structure and functioning of forests, grasslands, woodlands, and deserts. Research to include experiments with "model" ecosystems (field and lab) to obtain basic understanding relevant to a range of ecosystem types

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FY 2010: FY 2010: Develop/validate Develop/validate improved models predicting improved models predicting the effect of aerosols on the effect of aerosols on climate forcing climate forcing

Progress:

FY 2004 - Atmospheric Science Program reconfigured to address aerosol radiative forcing of climate

FY 2005 – Marine Stratus Experiment (MASE) conducted to examine influence of aerosol composition on ability of particles to serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)

FY 2006 – Megacity Aerosol Experiment in Mexico City – collect more comprehensive aerosol climate data set

FY 2007 – field and lab measurements of aerosol optical properties compared to calculated properties based on aerosol size distribution, morphology, and chemical composition

FY 2007 – development of new instruments and methods for measuring aerosol properties and processes, including precursors of secondary aerosols

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FY 2010FY 2010: Develop/validate : Develop/validate improved models predicting the improved models predicting the effect of aerosols on climate effect of aerosols on climate forcingforcingOffice of Science


Progress:

FY 2005 - Developed treatment of droplet nucleation incorporated into Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

FY 2010FY 2010: Develop/validate : Develop/validate improved models predicting the improved models predicting the effect of aerosols on climate effect of aerosols on climate forcingforcing

Develop improved parameterizations that include detailed aerosol microphysics

Complete study of effect of aerosols on properties of clouds – their effect as additional nucleation sources (thus affecting the radiative properties and lifetime of the clouds) and as a cause of local heating in the atmosphere (thus changing the thermodynamic environment around the cloud which can impact cloud lifetime)

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FY 2010:FY 2010: Provide a model that Provide a model that links the Earth’s Climate links the Earth’s Climate system with Earth’s biological system with Earth’s biological systemssystems

Progress: FY 2005 -- Implemented an ocean biogeochemistry model that includes the effects

of carbon and sulfur species in current version of the Parallel Ocean Program ocean model; implemented the above within the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) to simulate the response of ocean biogeochemistry to climate

FY 2005 -- Implemented a CCSM3 coupler to simulate the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere, and the exchange of sulfur species between atmosphere and ocean

FY 2005 -- Conducted initial testing of all model changes that included the sulfur cycle and carbon cycle in coupled climate model simulations

FY 2005 -- Conducted coupled simulations of the climate system including the carbon and sulfur cycles (POP2/biogeochemistry, CAM3/sulfur+carbon) with an interactive land surface model component

FY 2005 - delivered coupled climate model with an interactive carbon cycle, a submodel of secondary sulfate aerosols, and an interactive terrestrial biosphere. Capability enables modeling studies of interactions between carbon cycle and climate and between secondary sulfur aerosols and climate. Also provides tool to quantify potentially important feedbacks between climate system and terrestrial biosphere

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Progress: Continue basic research on effects of climatic and atmospheric changes on forests,

grasslands, woodlands, and deserts. Results of research important to (1) providing basic understanding needed to develop and improve earth system models and (2) collecting data relevant to testing predictions of earth system models

FY 2008 – support new research that addresses fundamental questions about effects of climatic change on the geographic boundaries of ecosystems and the organisms they contain. Relevance to metric is that an important component of earth system models is dynamic biogeography: changes in the location of future ecosystems (biomes) as a result of climatic changes and feedback effect of such changes on the climate system

Provide systematic observations of net CO2 exchange for representative ecosystems of the U.S. Measurements will be a major product of the N. American Carbon Program, and will contribute significantly to objective of quantifying and understanding major terrestrial carbon sinks and sources of N. America. AmeriFlux network data also contributes to development and testing of next generation carbon cycle models and coupled carbon-climate models.

FY 2010 - provide systematic observations of net CO2 exchange for representative ecosystems of the U.S. These measurements will uniquely contribute to the development and testing of next generation carbon cycle models and coupled carbon-climate models of a new Earth System modeling capability

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U.S. Department of EnergyFY 2010:FY 2010: Provide a model that Provide a model that links the Earth’s Climate links the Earth’s Climate system with Earth’s biological system with Earth’s biological systemssystems

SCM

Earth System Model simulations

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In-situ data

Incorporating new understanding of crucial process research from ARM, ASP, TCP, PER in state-of-the-science coupled models used by CCPP

Field campaigns

GCM ESM

FY 2010:FY 2010: Provide a model that Provide a model that links the Earth’s Climate links the Earth’s Climate system with Earth’s biological system with Earth’s biological systemssystems

Ongoing Activity in land-surface and biogeochemistry model development

• Coupled climate-terrestrial carbon cycle model (PCM-IBIS)

C-cycle code completed, tested, & coupled to relevant GCM• CCSM1-OCMIP2-CASA derivative • CCSM3-CLM3-CASA’

C-cycle code completed, run off-line• CCSM2-LPJ derivative (Gordan Bonan NCAR) • UCLA-SiB2 (Joerg Kaduk Stanford)• CCSM-CLM enhanced (Robert Dickinson Georgia Tech)

C-cycle code under development• NCAR (CCSM3-Biome-BGC derivative)• PCM-IBIS-GTEC loose coupling • CCSM3-POP Ocean POP – OBGCM

Entrepreneurial models -> common path models->CCSM-> ESM

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U.S. Department of Energy FY 2010:FY 2010: Provide a model that Provide a model that links the Earth’s Climate system links the Earth’s Climate system with Earth’s biological systemswith Earth’s biological systems

u.s. department of energy’s office of science jerry elwood, director climate change research...

Documents

benefits of climate

application of climate

climate change fccc

climate system responses

given change

improved climate data

ecosystem research research

cloud processes