u.s. economic outlook mark vitner, managing director & senior economist august 28, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Economic Outlook
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior EconomistAugust 28, 2015
Economic Outlook 2
After a Slow Start, U.S. Growth Should Strengthen During the Second Half of the Year
Overall Outlook
Monetary Policy
The Fed is poised to raise interest rates but monetary policy will remain expansionary. We expect the Fed to move cautiously amid slower global economic growth.
Inflation
Slowing growth in China is pulling down commodity prices and will likely restrain consumer prices. Lower inflation will hold down long-term interest rates.
Fiscal Policy
The drag from government spending cuts is lessoning in the US and major decisions need to be made on the highway bill, corporate tax rates and federal budget.
Global Economy
Slower growth in China is weighing on growth in other emerging economies, pushing up the value of the dollar and presenting a threat to exports and earnings.
U.S growth remains solid but unspectacular. Hiring is improving but wage growth is lacking and there are still huge pockets of underemployment.
Overall Growth
Economic Outlook 4
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 2.3%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.3%
Forecast
Economic Growth
Revisions to previously published data slightly boosted estimates of
economic growth for the first half of 2015 but slightly
reduced economic growth over the past three years.
Inventory building added to growth during the first half of the year and will reduce
real GDP growth in the current quarter. Consumer
spending, homebuilding and commercial construction
are all improving.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 55
Employment Situation
Nonfarm employment growth has picked up over the past year and the unemployment rate has fallen sharply. Wages are only rising modestly, however, as productivity growth remains exceptionally weak. Broader measures of wages only
show modestly stronger growth.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Unemployment RateNonfarm Employment
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nonfarm Employment ChangeChange in Employment, In Thousands
Monthly Change: J ul @ 215K
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Unemployment and Wage RatesWages for Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, SA
Unemployment Rate: J ul @ 5.3%Hourly Earnings - Yr/Yr % Change: J ul @ 1.8%
Economic Outlook 6
2%
6%
10%
14%
18%
2%
6%
10%
14%
18%
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Unemployment Rate MeasuresPercent
12-Month Rolling Average (NSA): J ul @ 5.6%
Unemployment Rate (SA): J ul @ 5.3%
U6 (SA): J ul @ 10.4%
Unemployment
The unemployment rate is slowly but steadily
improving.
The broader U6 unemployment rate has
done a better job of capturing the excess slack in the labor market in this
recovery.
U6 improved relative to the overall unemployment rate
during the past year, suggesting that some of the
headwinds in the labor market are lessening
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 7
108
111
114
117
120
123
126
129
128
131
134
137
140
143
146
149
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Thousa
nds
Thousa
nds
Full Time vs. Part Time EmploymentMillions, Seasonally Adjusted
Total Employment: J ul @ 146.4M (Left Axis)Full-Time: J ul @ 120.7M (Right Axis)
Total: 2.0M Above Prerecession Peak
Full-Time: 0.0M Below Prerecession Peak
Employment: Structural
Full-time employment has only recently risen back to
its previous peak.
Full-time jobs have been rising more rapidly over the
past year and more part-time workers are seeing
their hours increase.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 88
Small Business Survey
Small Business Confidence has pulled back since the start of the year.Business owners appear to be most concerned about slower revenue growth.
Source: NFIB, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Revenue GapSmall Business Optimism
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIBOverall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100
Wells Fargo Overall Situation: Q3 @ 59.0 (Left Axis)
Small Business Optimism: Q2 @ 96.5 (Right Axis)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Company Revenue GapDiff. Between "Increase" and "Decrease" Over Past 12 Months
Current Revenue Assesment: Q3 @ 10
Economic Outlook 99
Energy
Oil prices collapsed in late 2014 and early 2015. The number of active oil rigs has subsequently fallen sharply. While there are some tentative signs that the rig
count has bottomed, another slide in energy prices and another downturn in the rig count cannot be ruled out.
Source: IHS Global Insight, Baker-Hughes, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Production & EmploymentWTI
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Baker-Hughes Rig Count vs. Oil PricesOil Rotary Rigs; USD per Barrel
Oil Rig Count: Aug-21 @ 674 (Left Axis)WTI : Aug-21 @ $41.4 (Right Axis)
0
2
4
6
8
10
200
300
400
500
600
700
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Oil Production vs. EmploymentThousands of J obs, Million of Barrels per Day
Oil & Gas Employment: J ul @ 625.8K (Left Axis)
Oil Production: J ul @ 9.5M (Right Axis)
Inflation and Interest Rates
Economic Outlook 1111
Inflation
Global disinflation has led more aggressive easing moves by the ECB and BOJ. We expect the Fed to look through this transitory slowdown, however, and raise the
federal funds rate.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Eurozone CPIU.S. CPI
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
60 66 72 78 84 90 96 02 08 14
Headline CPIYear-over-Year Percent Change
CPI : J ul @ 0.2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Eurozone Consumer Price IndexYear-over-Year Percent Change
CPI : J ul @ 0.2%
Economic Outlook 12
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015
10-Year Government Bond YieldsPercent
United States: Aug 13 @ 2.2%United Kingdom: Aug 13 @ 1.8%Germany: Aug 13 @ 0.6%
Global Yields
U.S. yields have tended to follow Eurozone yields. The bounce back from earlier
lows reflects greater comfort with the growth
and inflation outlooks. The latest iteration of the Greek crisis led to only a modest
pullback in yields but growth and inflation
prospects have been scaled back a bit.
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 1313
FOMC
The FOMC is slightly more optimistic about the economy’s near-term prospects than the financial markets but has consistently expressed caution about long-term
growth prospects.
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Long Term ForecastFed’s Dot Plot
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Fed Funds Target Rate ExpectationsFed Projections as of J une Meeting; Market Futures as of J une 17
Median Fed Expectations
Futures Market Rate
2015 2016 Longer Run20173.5%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
3.5%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
2012 2013 2014 2015
FOMC Longer Term Fed Funds Rate ForecastMedian of Dot Plot
Fed Funds Rate: J une @ 3.75%
Housing
Economic Outlook 1515
Housing
Mortgage purchase applications and pending home sales both point to further strengthening in new and existing home sales. Most other leading indicators also
remain positive.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, MBA, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Existing Home SalesNew Home Sales
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1,050
1,200
1,350
1,500
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
New Home Sales vs. Mortgage ApplicationsThousands, Index 1990=100; Seasonally Adjusted
New Home Sales: J ul @ 507.0 (Left Axis)
Mortgage Applications: Aug @ 196.4 (Right Axis)2
3
4
5
6
7
8
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Pending vs. Existing Home SalesIndex, Millions, 3-Month Moving Average
Pending Home Sales: J un @ 111 (Left Axis)Existing Home Sales: J un @ 5.30M (Right Axis)
Economic Outlook 16
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Th
ousa
nds
Housing StartsMillions of Units
Multifamily StartsMultifamily ForecastSingle-family StartsSingle-family Forecast
Forecast
Housing
We continue to look for a gradual recovery in
homebuilding.
Apartment demand remains exceptionally strong but
supply is catching up with demand.
Single-family housing starts are beginning to ramp back
up. Gains will be more modest than in past building
cycles.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 1717
Home Prices
Household formations have picked up in a significant way in recent quarters, likely reflecting improving labor market conditions. Stronger demand and tight inventories are resulting in higher home prices, at least as measured by median
sales prices.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Realtors, S&P and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Home PricesHousehold Formation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
Household FormationsAverage of CPS/ ASEC and CPS/HVS, In Millions
Survey Averages: 2014 @ 780K1948 to 2014 Average
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Home PricesYear-over-Year Percentage Change
Median Sale Price: J ul @ $235,500Median Sale Price, 3-M Mov Avg: J ul @ 7.1%FHFA Purchase Only Index: J un @ 5.6%S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10: J un @ 4.6%
Global Economies
Economic Outlook 1919
U.S. Dollar
The appreciation in the dollar is likely to continue, which has created headwinds for U.S. firms competing internationally.
Source: IHS Global Insight, Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
ManufacturingDollar
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Trade Weighted DollarMajor Curency Index, 1973 = 100
Trade Weighted Dollar: Q2 @ 89.9
Forecast
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
ISM Manufacturing Composite IndexDiffusion Index
ISM Manufacturing Index: J ul @ 52.7
12-Month Moving Average: J ul @ 54.4
Economic Outlook 20
55%
48%46%
34%32% 30%
24% 22%
7%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Percent of S&P Revenues Earned AbroadBy Sector, J uly, 2015
S&P Revenues Earned Abroad
IT and Materials earn the highest share of their
revenues abroad, making those industries the most at risk to the stronger dollar.
Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 21
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Chinese TradeYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average
Exports: J ul @ -2.7%
Imports: J ul @ -10.6%
Global Economies: China Slowdown
It is clear that economic growth in China has slowed
recently.
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Regional
Economic Outlook 23
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Florida Gross State Product & U.S. GDPYear-over-Year Percent Change
U.S. GDP: 2014 @ 2.2%Florida GDP: 2014 @ 2.7%
Florida
Florida’s economy grew 2.7 percent in 2014,
comfortably outpacing the national average.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook 2424
Florida - Employment
Nonfarm payrolls continue to outpace the nation by a considerable margin.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Unemployment RateNonfarm Employment
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Nonfarm EmploymentYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-Month Moving Average, NSA
Florida: J ul @ 3.5%
United States: J ul @ 2.1%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Florida vs. U.S. Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted
Florida: J ul @ 5.4%United States: J ul @ 5.3%
Economic Outlook 2525
Cape Coral-Fort Myers
Employment in Cape Coral increased rose 3.9 percent over the year. Large gains were seen in leisure & hospitality sector, trade, transportation & utilities and
education & healthcare.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Employment by IndustryNonfarm Employment
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Cape Coral MSA Nonfarm Employment
QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 6.4%Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: J ul @ 3.9%Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: J un @ 1.4%
3-Month Moving Averages
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Information
Manufacturing
Other Services
Financial Activities
Educ. & Health Services
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Leisure and Hospitality
Government
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Total Nonfarm
Cape Coral MSA Employment Growth By Industry
Number of Employees
Less
More
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
July 2015
Economic Outlook 2626
Cape Coral-Fort Myers
The housing market has been slow to recover. Permits continue to trend upwards, however, and the underlying fundamentals of the housing market have improved
considerably.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Home PricesHousing Permits
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Thou
sand
s
Thou
sand
s
Cape Coral MSA Housing Permits
Single-Family: J un @ 5,616Single-Family, 12-MMA: J un @ 3,643Multifamily, 12-MMA: J un @ 1,747
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 6,017
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
CoreLogic HPI : U.S. vs. Cape CoralYear-over-Year Percent Change
United States: J un @ 6.5%
Cape Coral, FL: J un @ 11.5%
Economic Outlook 2727
Naples
Naples continues to see healthy employment gains. Nonfarm payrolls rose 4.4 percent over the past year, with all major sectors reporting solid gains.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Employment by IndustryNonfarm Employment
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Naples MSA Nonfarm Employment
QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 5.3%Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: J ul @ 4.4%Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: J un @ 1.1%
3-Month Moving Averages
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Information
Manufacturing
Other Services
Financial Activities
Government
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Educ. & Health Services
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Total Nonfarm
Naples MSA Employment Growth By Industry
Number of Employees
Less
More
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
July 2015
Economic Outlook 2828
Naples
Housing construction in Naples has risen significantly over the past year. This positive trend is likely to continue, driven by accelerating population growth and
improving fundamentals.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
PopulationHousing Permits
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Thou
sand
s
Thou
sand
s
Naples MSA Housing Permits
Single-Family: J un @ 3,552Single-Family, 12-MMA: J un @ 2,533Multifamily, 12-MMA: J un @ 1,059
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 3,668
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Naples MSA Population GrowthIn Thousands
Economic Outlook 29
Five Critical Key Takeaways
Economic Outlook
Weaker Global Growth is
Weighing on Commodity
Prices
The stronger gains seen in Europe earlier this year likely were a short-term response to the plunging value of the euro. China’s economy also appears to be slowing and will weigh further on commodity prices.
Interest Rates Will Rise This
Year
We still look for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate this fall but the pace and ultimate magnitude of rate hikes now looks to be less than previously thought.
The Housing Recovery Will
Gain Momentum
Demand for single-family homes is reviving, with first-time homebuyers finally coming back into the market. Apartment construction is close to peaking.
The Mix of Growth is Shifting More
Toward Consumption
The economy is better for consumers than producers. Areas of the country exposed to Agriculture, Energy, Mining and Manufacturing will likely see growth slow.
The economy should weather the recent slide in oil prices and turmoil in Europe. Look for real GDP to rise 2.1 percent in 2015 and 2.5 percent in 2016.
Economic Outlook 30
Our Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Real Gross Domestic Product 1 - 0.9 4.6 4.3 2.1 0.6 2.3 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.1 2.5
Personal Consumption 1.3 3.8 3.5 4.3 1.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 1.5 1.7 2.7 3.0 2.8
Inflation Indicators 2
PCE Deflator 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.9
Consumer Price Index 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 - 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.3 2.1
Industrial Production 1 3.6 5.7 3.9 4.7 - 0.2 - 1.7 2.3 3.1 2.8 1.9 3.7 1.8 3.0
Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 - 3.6 1.2 5.8 3.4 4.6 5.3 4.9 6.6 10.0 2.0 1.7 5.3 6.7
Trade Weighted Dollar Index 3 76.9 75.9 81.3 85.1 92.1 89.9 92.0 93.0 73.5 75.9 78.5 91.7 95.9
Unemployment Rate 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.0
Housing Starts 4 0.93 0.98 1.03 1.06 0.98 1.14 1.19 1.25 0.78 0.92 1.00 1.15 1.25
Quarter- End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.44 1.38Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.34 4.16 4.16 3.86 3.77 3.98 4.15 4.23 3.66 3.98 4.17 4.03 4.5110 Year Note 2.73 2.53 2.52 2.17 1.94 2.35 2.41 2.49 1.80 2.35 2.54 2.30 2.71
Forecast as of: August 12, 20151 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change3 Federal Reserve Major Currency I ndex, 1973=100 - Quarter End4 Millions of Units5 Annual Numbers Represent Averages
Actual
2014
ForecastActual
2015
Forecast
Appendix
Economic Outlook 32
Economic Outlook Group Publications
To view any of our past research please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/economics
To join any of our research distribution lists please
visit:http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economicsemail
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
Selected Recent Economic Reports
Date Title Authors
U.S. Macro
August- 06 Wells Fargo Small Business Survey: Q3 2015 Vitner & WolfAugust- 04 Case Study of the Taper Tantrum and Term Premiums Silvia & MoehringAugust- 04 Presidential Elections in America: A Primer Silvia, Quinlan & Brown August- 04 Inflation Charbook: August 2015 Bullard & House
J uly- 30 2015 Federal Long- Term Fiscal Outlook: How Dramatically Does Policy Have to Change? Silvia, Brown & Pugliese
U.S. RegionalAugust- 06 Western Economic Roundup Vitner & Wolf
J uly- 21 A Strong First Half For North Carolina Vitner & WolfJ uly- 17 California Employment Conditions: J une 2015 Vitner & WolfJ uly- 17 Florida's Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Lower Vitner & WolfJ uly- 17 Texas Labor Market Remains Resilient in J une Vitner & Wolf
Global EconomyAugust- 04 A Slightly More Upbeat RBA Keeps Rates on Hold Quinlan
J uly- 31 Taiwanese GDP Considerably Weaker Than Expected in Q2 Quinlan & NelsonJ uly- 30 Stronger- Than- Expected Q2 GDP Growth in Sweden Quinlan & NelsonJ uly- 28 U.K. GDP Growth Bounces Back in Q2 Quinlan & NelsonJ uly- 24 MENA: Got Oil? Bryson, Aléman & Nelson
Interest Rates/Credit MarketAugust- 05 TIP: Pay Little Heed to Current TIPS Breakeven Inflation Silvia, Vitner & House
J uly- 29 Potential Fiscal Policy Challenges to Monetary Policy: Part II Silvia, Vitner & BrownJ uly- 22 Potential Fiscal Policy Challenges to Monetary Policy: Part I Silvia, Vitner & BrownJ uly- 15 A Closer Look at the 2- Year Treasury Silvia, Vitner & BrownJ uly- 08 Consumers Expect to Borrow More Silvia, Vitner & Brown
Real EstateAugust- 07 Commerial Real Estate Chartbook: Q2 Khan
J uly- 31 Housing Chartbook: J uly 2015 Vitner, Khan & Batcheller
J uly- 24 Nonresidential Construction Recap: J uly Khan
J une- 30 Housing Data Wrap- Up: J une 2015 Vitner, Khan & Moehring
J une- 30 Nonresidential Construction Recap: J une Khan
Economic Outlook
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
33
John E. Silvia … ...................... . … [email protected]
Global Head of Research and Economics
Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected] Head of Research & Economics
Chief Economist
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . [email protected]
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist [email protected]
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……[email protected]
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………[email protected]
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … . [email protected]
Senior Economists
Erik Nelson, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Alex Moehring, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Misa Batcheller, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Michael Pugliese, Economic Analyst [email protected]
Economists
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………[email protected]
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………. [email protected]
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist [email protected]
Sarah House, Economist …………… ………… [email protected]
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … [email protected]
Economic Analysts
Administrative Assistants
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. ("WFS") is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. ("WFBNA") is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not compensate its research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC’s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon and impacted by the overall profitability and revenue of the firm which includes, but is not limited to investment banking revenue. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2015 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE
Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients
For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited ("WFSIL"). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. For purposes of the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority’s rules, this report constitutes impartial investment research. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the "Materials") are provided for general informational purposes only.
Donna LaFleur, Executive Assistant.
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant [email protected]