u.s. employment update and outlook: october 2014
DESCRIPTION
Unemployment dips to 5.9 percent in September—its first time below 6.0 percent during the recovery. The U.S. economy got back on track in September, bouncing back from a sluggish August with 248,000 net new jobs. Growth occurred across sectors and geographies, with office-using industries in particular benefiting from improved corporate confidence leading to permanent hiring. Total unemployment, which includes discouraged and marginally detached workers, also declined slightly to 11.8 percent, bringing it below the 10-year average. With numerous other employment metrics all pointing up—including job openings, voluntary quits and CEO confidence—sentiment will only become more optimistic over the coming months. See more real estate and economic research at: http://bit.ly/1vIGt6mTRANSCRIPT
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Job creation bounces back into
expansion mode in September
U.S. employment situation: September 2014 October 3, 2014
September 2014 employment summary
• Total non-farm employment increased by 248,000 jobs in September, bouncing back from a
slow August and recording yet another monthly increase of more than 200,000 jobs this
year.
- Growth was once again highly diverse and the top three subsectors in terms of additions
were responsible for less than two-thirds of new jobs.
- On a year-on-year basis, all subsectors posted net growth for the first time during the
recovery.
• Unemployment fell by 20 basis points to 5.9 percent due to a combination of persistent labor
force participation declines (down to 62.8 percent in August) and steady employment gains.
- Total unemployment declined to 11.8 percent, the first time during this cycle that it has
fallen below the 10-year average.
- Unemployment for college and high-school grads decreased sharply to a mere 2.9 and 5.2
percent, respectively.
September 2014 employment summary (con’t)
• After months of relative stagnancy, all three office-using subsectors (PBS, financial activities
and information) witnessed a jump in hiring, adding a combined 105,000 jobs during
September. Revisions to previous months were also beneficial to all three industries.
• Even with a slight dip in consumer confidence, it remains high at 86.0 points, although still
below pre-recession levels. Consumer confidence has risen over the course of the year due
to more consistent job growth and falling unemployment in the vast majority of geographies,
while it has also spurred improved consumption and spending.
• From a geographic perspective, Texas and the Sunbelt are the definite leaders, with markets
consistently reporting 3.5 percent or greater year-on-year employment growth. While most
major markets are now in the 2.0+ percent range (with the notable exceptions of Chicago
and Philadelphia), they have yet to keep up with Austin, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Raleigh-
Durham and South Florida in percentage terms, among other high-growth areas.
Job growth bounces back up in September after slowing in
August; 2014 averages monthly growth of 223,000 jobs 22
0,00
0
121,
000
120,
000
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
106,
000
122,
000
221,
000
183,
000
164,
000 19
6,00
0
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
0
84,0
00
144,
000
222,
000
201,
000
304,
000
202,
000
267,
000
243,
000
180,
000
248,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Oct
-10
Dec
-11
Feb
-11
Apr
-11
Jun-
11
Aug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Apr
-12
Jun-
12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Apr
-13
Jun-
13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Apr
-14
Jun-
14
Aug
-14
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
Another month of gains greater than 200,000 jobs pushed
down unemployment to 5.9 percent in September
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
Job openings have hit a seven-year high, remaining stable at
4.7 million
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
-3.0
-2.1
-0.8
0.0
1.8
1.9
4.0
7.0
9.0
12.0
12.0
12.0
16.0
19.7
22.7
32.0
33.0
35.3
81.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Nondurable goods
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Other services
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Mining and logging
Information
Financial activities
Government
Construction
Temporary help services
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
After months of slow growth, office-using industries surge by
105,000 jobs, but gains remain diverse
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
PBS
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
60.2 percent of
monthly
growth.
1.7
10.0
14.0
47.0
47.0
52.0
61.4
89.0
108.9
139.7
147.0
161.0
230.0
232.5
264.4
343.7
372.0
399.0
713.0
0 200 400 600 800
Utilities
Information
Nondurable goods
Government
Other services
Mining and logging
Motor vehicles and parts
Financial activities
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Construction
Temporary help services
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
For the first time during the recovery, all subsectors
demonstrated net growth, with YoY gains totaling 2.6 million
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
Core subsectors added 75.8 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
Strength in the private sector provides first 24-month growth of
more than 5.0 million jobs
Private sector hiring up 5.0
million since September 2012
Public sector hiring down 16,000
workers since September 2012
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Unemployment for both college and high school grads drops
sharply, with white-collar unemployment at just 2.9 percent…
2.9%
5.3%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
…but labor force participation in both segments has remained
largely flat and at record lows
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hig
h sc
hool
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Col
lege
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Bachelor's degree High school, no college
Both goods-producing and service-providing employment are
growing faster, posting notable increases in job creation
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
12
Improvements in financial activities and information push
office-using gains past energy
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through August 2014.
13
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Tech still leading but slightly slower in line with national
trends, while energy remains up-and-down
Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
Initial unemployment claims continue to fall: 4-week moving
average the past three weeks has been below 300,000
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
inde
x
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
Although consumer confidence dipped slightly to 86.0 points, it
remains high as unemployment continues to fall
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
Quits are slowly rising as worker sentiment about the job
market slowly grows
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Qui
ts (
thou
sand
s)
Sunbelt and Texas remain dominant, with Raleigh-Durham year-
on-year growth at a whopping 4.7 percent
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Raleigh-Durham
4.7%
Houston
4.0%
Dallas
3.9%
Austin
3.8% Miami
3.5%
San Francisco
3.3%
Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting
job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however
19
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hampton
Roads
0.5%
Washington,
DC
0.6%
Columbus
0.7%
Detroit
0.9%
New Jersey
0.8%
Westchester
County
1.0%
The labor force participation rate stayed flat a recovery low of
62.8 percent, contributing to the decline in unemployment
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
Total unemployment drops below 12.0 percent for the first
time during the recovery and is now below average
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
Solid increases in PBS, financial and information sectors all
pushed up office-using industries’ share of monthly growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
Office-using job growth posted highest volume since early 2013,
while revisions push up previous months
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In July 2014, it represented all 77.1 percent of new office jobs.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
Temporary help services is still on its way to 3.0 million jobs,
but rate of growth slightly slower and more stable
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mon
thly
net
cha
nge
in jo
bs (
ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary em
ployment (ths)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
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