U.S. Immigration: Trends and Consequences

Population and Society

SOC 331

08.13.08

Outline

Trends Size Composition

Legislation Responses Consequences

Trends in US Immigration

Immigration History

Pre-1875 no laws, UK/Germany, Involuntary Migrants

1875-1920 Limited Laws, SEC European, Heyday of US immigration

1920-1970 Very small flow, “inferior”, WWI and WWII

1970-1986 Kennedy Act of 1965 - eliminated national quotas,

Unintended effect was Asian and Latin American Immigration

Immigration History (cont)

1986 Simpson-Massoli Act: provided amnesty for

undocumented immigrants who had been in US Sanctions for employers who hired

undocumented workers Failed - no enforcement

Current 800,000-1,000,00 per year

Massey’s Return to Aztlan

Virtually everyone who wants to get to the U.S. eventually does

Equal flow in each direction (Circular Migration)

The Chances of begin apprehended at the border are declining

Composition

Consequences

Hotly debated in media but often citing little evidence

Impact on Workers Empirical Studies find little impact (Bean et al 1988, Borjas

1994, Friedburg and Hunt 1995, Hamermesh 1993, Smith and Edmonston 1997)

National Research Council Report Impact on Fiscal System

Pay lower taxes from lower wages Less likely to stay to receive social security and Medicare Welfare and health care costs are negligible

Impact on Workers

Recurring fear about immigrants Potential loss to native workers But many get pushed up not out (Complement

effect) Empirical Study

National Studies of all cities comparing change in immigrants and change in wages

No evidence of job loss or lower wages for native workers

National Research Council Report

“The weight of empirical evidence suggests that the impact of immigration on the wages of competing native born workers is small - possibly only reducing them by 1 or 2 percent.” (Smith and Edmonston 1997: 220)

“The evidence also indicates that the numerically weak relationship between native wages and immigration is observed across all types of native workers…” (Smith and Edmonston 1997: 223)

Fiscal System

Often said that extraction exceeds contribution NRC report showed that immigrants and their

descendents pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits Younger, so use more school money but use less

social security and Medicare Relieve some per capita fiscal burden of native-born

for national debt and public goods (more people controbuting)