Useful Macro Graphs

Charles I. Jones

Stanford GSB

January 12, 2015

Many of these graphs are updated versions of graphs in the Short-Run

section of my Macroeconomics textbook (W.W. Norton, 2014). Others are just

graphs that I find useful in my teaching.|

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 1

Fig 9.3: U.S. Economic Fluctuations

Year

Short−run output, Ytilde

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

−8%

−7%

−6%

−5%

−4%

−3%

−2%

−1%

0

+1%

+2%

+3%

+4%

+5%

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 2

Fig 9.4: Change in U.S. Employment

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015−1

−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Year

Monthly change in employment (percent)

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 3

Fig 10.2: The Fed Funds Rate

Year

Percent

2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 4

Fig 10.6: U.S. Employment

Year

Millions

2000 2005 2010 2015128

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

Source: Federal Reserve Economic DataChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 5

Fig 10.7: U.S. Economic Fluctuations since 2000

Year

Short−run output, Ytilde

2000 2005 2010 2015−8%

−7%

−6%

−5%

−4%

−3%

−2%

−1%

0

+1%

+2%

+3%

+4%

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 6

Fig 10.8: U.S. Unemployment Rate

Year

Percent

2000 2005 2010 20153

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Source: Federal Reserve Economic DataChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 7

The U.S. Employment-Population Ratio

Year

Percent

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201555

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Down from 63 to 58

V versus ∪

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 8

Fig 10.10: Inflation in the U.S.

Year

Percent

Excluding food and energy

All items

2000 2005 2010 2015−2

−1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Dec 2007 = 2.4%

Dec 2010 = 0.6%

Nov 2014 = 1.7%

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 9

Forecasts of CPI Inflation, 1 Year and 10 Years Ahead

Forecast for 10 years ahead

Forecast for 1 year ahead

Year

Percent

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, FRB PhiladelphiaChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 10

Commodity Prices over the Long Run

Source: Economist, “Resource prices” Oct 14th 2011.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 11

Real GDP per Person in the United States

Year

Real GDP per person (2007Q4=100)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201530

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 12

Real GDP per Person – Current Recession

Year

Real GDP per person (2007Q4=100)

2000 2005 2010 201588

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 13

Real GDP per Employee – Current Recession

Year

GDP per Employee

2000 2005 2010 201588

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 14

The Beveridge Curve (2010 Nobel Prize in Economics)

Source: BLS JOLTS HighlightsChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 15

OECD Outlook: Growth in Real GDP per Person

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 16

World Outlook: Real GDP Growth

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 17

OECD Outlook: Forecast Errors

Source: OECD Economic Outlook, November 2014.

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 18

Dropping the Fed Funds rate to zero

Year

Percent

2000 2005 2010 20150

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 19

Risk spreads in interbank lending

TED Spread: difference between the 3-month LIBORrate and the 3-month U.S. treasury yield

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP:IND

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 20

Fig 14.1: Ten Year Bond Spreads

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 20141

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Year

BAA Corporate Bond Yield

10−Year Treasury Yield

Spread

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 21

Percent

Actual fed funds rate

Taylor Rule prediction

2000 2005 2010 2015−2

0

2

4

6

8

Short−run output

2000 2005 2010 2015−8

−6

−4

−2

0

+2

Core CPI inflation

2000 2005 2010 2015

1

2

3

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 22

Fig 14.8: The Fed’s Use of Unconventional Policies

Source: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/credit_easing/index.cfm

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 23

The Fed’s Stunning Use of Unconventional Policies

Source: MarketRealist.comChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 24

The S&P 500 Stock Price Index (real)

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

80

160

320

640

1280

2560

Year

Real Stock Price Index (ratio scale)

Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 25

Bubbles in the stock market?

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Year

P/E Ratio

Average = 16.3

Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htmChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 26

Bubbles in housing prices?

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

100

120

140

160

180

200

Year

Real Home Price Index (1953=100, ratio scale)

Decline of 35.7 percent

peak to trough

Source: Robert Shiller, http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 27

World Housing Prices (The Economist, August 2014)

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 28

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

5

10

20

40

80

Year

Per capita GDP (US=100)

United States

Japan

Western Europe

Brazil

Russia

China

India

Sub−Saharan Africa

Source: Author’s calculations using Penn World Tables

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 29

The Dynamics of Catch-Up Growth

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

5

10

20

40

80 100

JapanSouth Korea

Taiwan

ChinaIndia

Years since start of rapid growth

GDP per person (US=100)

Source: Author’s calculations using Penn World TablesChad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 30

The Euro Area Crisis: Ten Year Bond Yields

1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Percent

Germany

Spain

Italy

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 31

Unit Labor Costs in Europe

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201295

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

Year

Index (2000=100)

Greece

Germany

Spain Italy

France

Source: FRED

Chad Jones, Updated Graphs – January 12, 2015 – p. 32