All of the women receiving the synthetic hormone carried their in­fants for more than nine months and most of the infants were of nor­mal weight, 5.5 lb or more. How­ever, there were 11 premature births among the women receiving the placebo. Five of these infants weighed less than 2.2 lb. Seven of the premature babies, including one set of twins, died.

Except for temporary discomfort at the injection site, no untoward reactions to the hormone were noted in the mothers participating in the study, the scientists say. And they note that the natural produc­tion of 17a-hydroxyprogesterone, the synthetic substance's parent hormone, in substantial quantities during pregnancy argues against the 17a-hydroxyprogesterone ca-proate's having any teratogenic ef­fects. However, they caution that large-scale trials are needed to cor­roborate the efficacy of the medica­tion, as well as to delineate the pre­cise maternal and fetal risks associ­ated with its administration. D

Nuclear war might not end human life In sharp contrast to the "end of the world" prophecies usually attached to the issue, a National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council panel has concluded rather optimistically that a massive nu­clear war probably would not bring an end to human life or to the bio­sphere of this planet. Further, in transmitting the report to the U.S. Arms Control & Disarmament Agency, NAS president Philip Handler says that the worldwide effects of such an "unimaginable holocaust" would "be less prolonged and less severe than many had feared." Albeit only relatively so.

However, Dr. Handler warns that noncombatants should not take any comfort in these findings. Among other things, he notes that coun­tries not directly involved in such a nuclear exchange could face, among other things, major and unfavorable climatic changes and regions of high radioactivity.

The NAS-NRC study is based on the assumption that nuclear weap­onry with a total yield of about 10,000 megatons of TNT equiva­lent—or about half the nuclear megatonnage in the U.S.-U.S.S.R. arsenals—has been detonated in the Northern Hemisphere. It estimates that effects in the Northern Hemi­sphere might be evident for years after the weapons were detonated.

Another threat to stratospheric ozone

The $56,000 report was prepared by an NRC committee chaired by Dr. Alfred O. C. Nier of the University of Minnesota's school of physics and astronomy.

In Handler's view, the "prin­cipal new point" developed in the report is that the major predicted long-term effects would not result from dispersion of radionuclides, but would be the result of an in­crease in ultraviolet radiation due to a reduction in the stratospheric ozone. This ozone depletion would be the immediate chemical conse­quence of injection into the strato­sphere of large pulses of oxides of nitrogen formed by the detonations.

Although lasting only a decade or two until normal photochemical processes replace the ozone, "there will have occurred during this in­terim more or less severe, worldwide effects on climate, crop production, mutagenesis of pathogenic viruses and microorganisms, as well as a marked increase in the incidence of fatally intense sunburn, skin can­cer, etc." Specifically, the report notes that if the ozone were depleted by 50% for a period of three years, incidences of skin cancer would in­crease about 10% in the mid-lati­tudes for a period of 40 years.

Other findings of the report, which braces many of its conclu­sions with recommendations for further research, include:

• A 2% increase in the spon­taneous cancer death rate during the first generation due to exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation.

• An increase of 0.2 to 2.0% in the incidence of significant genetic disease in the first generation. About four fifths of the genetic dam­

age would be experienced by suc­ceeding generations.

• Although "detectable and sig­nificant, damage" to natural eco­systems would be "minor in terms of disruption of total system stabili­ty." Recovery would be fairly com­plete in 25 years.

Coincident with the release of the NAS report, the Federation of American Scientists issued a press statement taking issue with the NAS report in general, and with Handler's warning to noncombat­ants, in particular. Among other things, FAS says, "It would be easy to warn the six nuclear powers pri­vately without arousing the nuclear nuts—if such exist. Why implicitly encourage them with a false con­clusion, then explicitly encourage them with a Strangelovian scenario, and then pretentiously, and un­necessarily, warn publicly against it?" (Copies of the report "Long-Term Worldwide Effects of Multiple Nuclear Weapons Detonations" is available from the NAS Printing & Publishing Office, 2101 Constitu­tion Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418. Price: $8.50.) D

User group formed for heavy ion lab Already off to a physical start with ground-breaking last April, a heavy ion laboratory scheduled for com­pletion in 1979 at Oak Ridge Na­tional Laboratory now is headed toward an experimental start. A users group has been formed, a charter adopted, and an executive committee elected.

The heavy ion laboratory will be a national resource for research in nuclear structure, nuclear chem­istry, nuclear reactions, atomic physics, biophysics, materials dam­age, and related fields. The users group, similar to those for other na­tional research facilities, will pro­vide a means for including inter­ested scientists in specific research projects and for developing instru­mentation for experimental pro­grams. It also will serve as a formal channel for exchange of information between the laboratory and its users.

The laboratory will consist of a new 25 million volt tandem electro­static accelerator and ORNL's pres­ent heavy ion accelerator, the Oak Ridge isochronous cyclotron. The largest tandem electrostatic acceler­ator now in use is a 14 million volt unit in Canberra, Australia. Most others are in the 10 million volt range.

Oct. 13, 1975C&EN 5

A new realm of experimentation thus will be opened up by the new facility. The accelerator can be used by itself or as an injector for the cy­clotron. With the cyclotron alone, scientists currently are able to ac­celerate elements only as heavy as chlorine, with mass number 35, to energies high enough for nuclear reactions. The new combination will extend the laboratory's capability to a mass range of 150. Thus, studies of the behavior of nuclear matter over a large portion of the periodic table and of atomic structure over the full range of elements will be possible.

The tandem accelerator, being built by National Electrostatics Corp., Middleton, Wis., employs a unique "folded" design, with low-and high-energy acceleration tubes located in parallel. The tubes are housed in a single column mounted vertically in a 98-foot-high, 33-foot-diameter pressure vessel. Per­formance tests of the accelerator are due for completion by late 1978. D

Rising stocks worry fertilizer makers Fears voiced by some fertilizer pro­ducers all summer of rising fertilizer inventories and falling prices may be beginning to be confirmed. Latest data on producers' inven­tories released by the Fertilizer In­stitute show sharp increases not only over the tight supplies of the past two years, but also over the relatively normal inventory levels of 1972.

End of August inventory levels were equivalent to more than one month's production for all three basic types of chemical fertilizers— nitrogen compounds, phosphates, and potash—the survey shows. Nitrogen inventories, although up more than 100% from the very tight supply situation of the past two summers, now stand at the equiva­lent of 39 days' production, approxi­mately their 1972 inventory level. But for both phosphate fertilizers, at 34 days' production, and muriate standard, the major potash fertili­zer, at 86 days', inventories are at their highest midsummer level in recent years. Such high inventory levels are "definitely creating nervousness in the market," Fertili­zer Institute president Edwin M. Wheeler says.

Signs of that nervousness could be seen at major fertilizer producer International Minerals & Chemi­cal's annual meeting earlier this month. There president R. A. Lenon

Fertilizer inventories are ahead of a month's output Days production equivalent 1972 1973 1974 1975 Nitrogen products 40 19 18 39 Phosphate prod- 22 19 19 34

ucts* Muriate standard 44 31 21 86

Note: Inventory at end of August of each year, a Excluding rock. Source: Fertilizer Institute

predicted that earnings per share for IMC will be off 5 to 10% for the current fiscal year, which began July 1. Decreased earnings from phosphate rock sales will be the principal reason for the decline, Lenon says. Domestic prices for phosphate rock—the bulk of IMC's business—range "from fair to low to troublesome," he explains. Whether or not the company matches last year's earnings will depend on the extent of its much higher priced export sales. And for concentrated phosphate chemicals, recent prices have declined sharply, he says, re­flecting a 22% increase in industry capacity in the past year.

As for the buildup in nitrogen fertilizer inventories, for the time being producers view this with satis­faction rather than alarm. Possible natural gas curtailment this winter, and the subsequent decrease in nitrogen fertilizer production, lead many to predict a shortage of nitro­gen fertilizers for the spring plant­ing season. And deregulation of natural gas prices would mean higher production costs for these fertilizers. Combined with a pickup in the fibers market, which will di­vert ammonia from fertilizer to more profitable synthetic fiber pro­duction, anticipated natural gas curtailments may mean 400,000 to 600,000 tons less nitrogen fertilizer available to farmers next spring than was available this year, Wheeler estimated late last month. Lenon tentatively predicts that domestic supplies of most forms of nitrogen fertilizer will be adequate during the coming year, although he, too, can foresee shortages if natural gas is curtailed severely this fall and winter. D

Carbide doubles propionaldehyde unit Union Carbide believes its new 150 million lb-a-year propionaldehyde unit, doubling capacity for the chemical at its Texas City, Tex., plant, will cover market growth for some years to come, but with an

"if." The big unknown in the future demand for propionaldehyde is whether farmers will increase their use of propionic acid as a preserva­tive for grain, especially corn. Pro­pionic acid is one of propionalde-hyde's biggest uses. Carbide also has added a unit with a capacity of 150 million lb a year for the acid.

Should propionic acid become used very widely as a grain preserva­tive in place of drying the grain, de­mand for the acid could skyrocket. Typically, about 1 lb of propionic acid will preserve a bushel of corn.

The cost of preserving corn with propionic acid is about 20 cents a bushel to the farmer, estimates Theodore J. Fontelieu Jr., a product manager at Carbide. This cost is about the same as that for drying using heat, often supplied by burn­ing propane.

Corn preserved with propionic acid goes to feed cattle; as yet, corn preserved this way cannot be used in human food. As a result, exports of grain from the U.S., which all goes for human consumption, could depress demand for propionic acid.

For 1975, Carbide puts the de­mand for propionic acid at 110 mil­lion lb—slightly less than the de­mand of some 120 million lb for pro-panol, the other large use of pro­pionaldehyde. Various small uses account for the remainder of pro­pionaldehyde consumption.

Besides use of propionic acid as a grain preservative (about 30% of its total consumption), much of the balance of U.S.-produced propionic acid goes to make various herbicides used on rice and various food pre­servatives as propionates. These latter uses are growing at about 7 to 8% annually.

Other herbicides are made from propanol and account for more than 40% of propanol demand, Carbide estimates. They are used as an aid in growing soybeans, corn, and cot­ton. Solvents for coatings and for inks used in printing on food con­tainers will take nearly as much propanol this year as will herbicides. Smaller uses, among them some spe­cialty herbicides, will take the rest.

With its new plant, whose capac­ity turned out to be 50% greater than the 100 million lb initially announced, Carbide has 75% of U.S. capacity. Eastman Chemical Prod­ucts has the rest or about 100 mil­lion lb of annual capacity.

Carbide's new propionaldehyde unit uses proprietary OXO tech­nology involving a rhodium-cata­lyzed reaction of ethylene and syn­thesis gas, carbon monoxide and hydrogen, at relatively low pres­sures. •

6 C&ENOct. 13, 1975