using gis to evaluate agricultural land suitability in hawaii and the impacts of regional climate...
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Jacob Gross*1 Tomoaki Muira1 Jonathan Deenik2 John Yanagida1
Russell Yost2
Using GIS to Evaluate Agricultural Land Suitability in Hawaii and the Impacts of
Regional Climate Change
1Dept. of Natural Resource and Environmental Management (NREM)2Dept. of Tropical Plant and Soil SciencesCollege of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources (CTAHR)
PROJECT BACKGROUND
CTAHR Database & GeoportalCentralize data relevant to
natural resource management in Hawaii
Organize information to support land use evaluation and decision making
Provide user access to information
2
Users
CTAHRDatabase
Local Server Geoportal
PROBLEM & RESEARCH OBJECTIVE
How will climate change impact agricultural land suitability in Hawaii?
Temperature and RainfallCrop specific:
Coffee Macadamia, Papaya, Sweet potato, Cacao, Tea
GeoportalApplication
(late 21st century)
Research Objective: Compare present land suitability vs. future land suitability
2013 HI Rainfall Atlas
1978-2007 (250m)
Specific Crop
Mean Total Rainfall(Monthly or Annual)
Min & Max Temp (Monthly)
Temperature Dataset
1971-2000 (500m)
SSURGO
Variable Size Polygons
SlopeUSGS DEM
(10m)
Soil DrainageSoil DepthSoil pH
Minimum Score
METHODS
2080-2099
Evaluation procedure adapted from Ramirez-Villegas et al. 2011
Crop Ecological Requirements
Environmental Datasets (Rasters)
Suitability Map (Raster)
ArcGIS Python Script
METHODS
PRESENTFUTURE2080 - 2099
Suitability Score
Coffee
RESULTS
Major CropLocations
Core CropLands
Melrose and Delparte 2012
North Kohala
Waimea
Hamakua
North Hilo
South Hilo
Keeau
Pahoa
KauOcean View
Kona
RESULTS
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Current Coffee Fields
Pahoa
Keaau
South Hilo
North Hilo
Hamakua
Waimea
North Kohala
Kona
Ocean View
Kau
Weighted Mean Difference in Suitability Score (per hectare)
RESULTS
Conclusions
Future rainfall and temperature estimates support continued coffee production in the majority of established locations on the Big Island.
Coffee crops in Hilo, Puna, and Hamakua districts
could experience production limitations caused by increases in temperature and rainfall, especially if related problems already exist .
Traditional rain-fed systems on Hawai`I Sweet potato (`uala)Kagawa and Vitousek (2012) Evaluated rain-fed dryland
agriculture Leeward Kohala Field System (LKFS)
Production locations likely shifted seasonally Lower elevation = winter crops Upper elevation = spring and summer crops
SEASONALITY
Sweet Potato Optimal SeasonLeeward Kohala Field System
Sweet Potato Optimal SeasonLeeward Kohala Field System
Conclusions
GIS crop suitability model can provide decision support materials for Farmers & Planners:
System is adaptable Adjustments to crop requirements New environmental datasets Can be applied to crops not currently grown in Hawaii
Acknowledgements
Funding Source:Agribusiness Development Corporation - Hawaii State Dept. of Agriculture
Climate Change Projections:International Pacific Research CenterDr. Kevin Hamilton Dr. Chunxi Zhang
Coffee Extension Specialist:Dr. Skip Bittenbender -CTAHR
CTAHR GeoPortal IT:Nathan DormanElsie Kawahara http://gis.ctahr.hawaii.edu/
Sources Cited Giambelluca, Thomas W, Diaz, Henry F, & Luke, Mark SA. (2008).
Secular temperature changes in Hawai‘i. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(12).
Lauer, Axel, Zhang, Chunxi, Elison-Timm, Oliver, Wang, Yuqing, & Hamilton, Kevin. (2013). Downscaling of Climate Change in the Hawaii Region Using CMIP5 Results: On the Choice of the Forcing Fields*. Journal of Climate, 26(24).
Melrose, J, & Delparte, D. (2012). Hawai'i County Food Self-Sufficiency Baseline 2012 (G. a. E. S. Department, Trans.): University of Hawai'i at Hilo.
Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, Jarvis, Andy, & Laderach, Peter. (2013). Empirical approaches for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 170, 67-78.
Timm, Oliver, & Diaz, Henry F. (2009). Synoptic-statistical approach to regional downscaling of IPCC twenty-first-century climate projections: seasonal rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of Climate, 22(16).
Timm, Oliver, Takahashi, Mami, Giambelluca, Thomas W, & Diaz, Henry F. (2013). On the relation between large scale circulation ‐pattern and heavy rain events over the Hawaiian Islands: Recent trends and future changes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(10), 4129-4141.
LAND SUITABILITY
1. Rainfall2. Temperature3. Soil Drainage4. Soil Depth5. Soil pH6. Slope
High Spatial Variability• Topography• Substrate Age• Climate
Natural EnvironmentalConditions
HAWAII CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS (Late 21st Century)
Temperature Increasing Temperatures (Lauer et al. 2013)
RCP4.5 (1.2 ˚- 2.9˚ C) RCP8.5 (2.3 ˚- 4.9˚ C)
Stronger warming at higher elevations (Giambelluca et al. 2008)
Rainfall Increase in overall rainfall (~5%) (Timm and Diaz 2009) Increased drought in drier areas (Timm et al. 2013) ↑summer precipitation ↓winter precipitation (Timm and Diaz 2009) Increased risk of widespread heavy rain events is low (Timm et al. 2013) *High uncertainty in rainfall estimates (Lauer et al. 2013)
Agricultural Suitability Classification in Hawaii1963-1972 LSB Hawaii Land Study Bureau
(University of Hawaii)
1957-1972 LCC Land Capability Classification – (USDA) 1977 ALISH Agricultural Lands of Importance to the State of
Hawaii – (USDA, Hawaii State Board of Agriculture)1978-1986 LESA Hawaii Land Evaluation and Site Assessment
(HI LESA Commission)
1986-2007 HNRIS Hawaii Natural Resources Information System – (CTAHR)
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-1000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Pahoa
CURRENTFUTURE
% Suitability
Hect
ares
RESULTS
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-1000
1000
2000
3000
Ka'u
CURRENTFUTURE
% Suitability
Hect
ares
RESULTS
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-1000
1000
2000
3000
4000
Kona
CURRENTFUTURE
% Suitability
Hect
ares
RESULTS