USING & INTERPRETING THE DSFUSING & INTERPRETING THE DSF

Presenter:Presenter:

Hugh CrossHugh Cross

MDBCMDBC

PART 1: PART 1: Use of DSF Analyses within the Use of DSF Analyses within the BDP and Rules Development ProcessesBDP and Rules Development Processes

Analytical Framework for Analytical Framework for Impact Assessment in Impact Assessment in the LMBthe LMB

Overall Impact Assessment

DSF Assisted Analysis

Environmental impacts

Acceptable environmental

standards - "rules"

Socio-economic impacts on affected

populations

Macro-sustainability

analysis

Change

Transboundary issues

National plans

Key water related sectors:Key water related sectors:

irrigated agriculture;

navigation;

watershed management;

tourism;

fisheries and bio-diversity;

domestic and industrial water supply;

hydropower; flood management.

Planning steps Remarks

Planning preparatory work

A Development goals Planners define the development aims and objectives that their plans or assessments are expected to achieve

B Assessment framework

Planners define the high-level development indicators that effectively demonstrate whether the development goals are being achieved

C Development opportunities

Planners define the different development opportunities that may exist to achieve the development goals

D Development Scenario

Planners define the development scenarios that need to be investigated

Scenario definition and reporting

E.1 Scenario Objective For each planning issue, planners define a scenario objective that states what is to be tested against which potential sectoral interests

E.2 Scenario Components

Agreement is reached between the DSF modelling team and planners on the scenario’s components, i.e. hydrological conditions, prevailing demands and interventions in place

E.3 Relevant trans-boundary issues by Sector

The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners which relevant issues are to be investigated when running the scenario

E.4 Indicators relevant to trans-boundary issues

The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners which indicators are to be tested for each selected trans-boundary issue

E.5 Tools for testing changes in indicators

The DSF modelling team selects the tools required to test the selected indicators

E.6 Reporting The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners how information on each indicator is to be reported

End-user scenario post-assessment

F Multi-criteria analysis format

The end-user defines a procedure for multi-criteria assessment of alternative scenarios, linking the high-level development indicators to the indicators used for analysis of trans-boundary issues

G Multi-criteria assessment

Each scenario is assessed using MCA to find out the one that best meets the development goals with the most acceptable mix of development indicators

Planning Step E2: Setting DSF Scenario Planning Step E2: Setting DSF Scenario ComponentsComponents

Climate Conditions Climate Conditions Assuming the future is represented by conditions in:Assuming the future is represented by conditions in:

1985-20001985-2000 Any selected period within 1985-2000 Any selected period within 1985-2000 Representative years (wet, dry, typical)Representative years (wet, dry, typical) New time-series of predicted conditions based on climate New time-series of predicted conditions based on climate

change forecastschange forecasts

Or any of the above with factored changes in:Or any of the above with factored changes in: Rainfall, temperature etcRainfall, temperature etc Sea level changeSea level change Changes in tidal rangeChanges in tidal range

System DemandsSystem Demands

Assuming the future is represented by changed Assuming the future is represented by changed conditions in:conditions in: Urban and rural water supply dependent on river Urban and rural water supply dependent on river

abstractionsabstractions Industrial water supply dependent on river Industrial water supply dependent on river

abstractionsabstractions Changes in existing irrigation areasChanges in existing irrigation areas New irrigation areasNew irrigation areas Changes in crop mixesChanges in crop mixes Changes in irrigation efficienciesChanges in irrigation efficiencies Changes in drainage/return flowChanges in drainage/return flow Freshwater aquacultureFreshwater aquaculture

Proposed InterventionsProposed Interventions

Land management practices:Land management practices: Change in catchment runoff factorsChange in catchment runoff factors

Reservoirs Reservoirs (including hydropower)(including hydropower):: New reservoirs in ChinaNew reservoirs in China New reservoirs in LMBNew reservoirs in LMB Changes in operation of existing reservoirsChanges in operation of existing reservoirs

Flood protection (d/s Kratie):Flood protection (d/s Kratie): New embankments and roadsNew embankments and roads Raised embankments and roadsRaised embankments and roads

Channel improvements (d/s Kratie):Channel improvements (d/s Kratie): Dredging and re-profilingDredging and re-profiling Cross-regulation Cross-regulation Salinity intrusion barriersSalinity intrusion barriers

Scenario Analysis Task E.3: Relevant trans-boundary issues by Sector          

 

Sector:

Navig

ation

Salin

ity Co

ntro

l

Wetlan

ds

Fish

eries

Eco

systems

Estu

aries

Water S

up

ply

Water Q

uality

Ag

ricultu

re

Irrigatio

n &

D

rainag

e

Ru

ral Po

pu

lation

s

 

 Issue:

 Highly relevant

Moderately relevant  

  MRC Agreement Article 6 'Rules'

                      

1 Water Quality Deterioration & Sedimentation

                      

2 Fisheries Productivity & Ecosystem Functioning

                      

3 River Bank Erosion                        

4 Obstruction to Navigation                        

5 Inadequate Dry Season Flows

                      

6 Flooding                        

Sub-issues:Sub-issues:

Scenario Analysis Task E.3: Relevant trans-boundary issues by Sector

Sector: Navi

gatio

n

Salin

ity C

ontro

l

Wet

land

s

Fish

erie

s

Ecos

yste

ms

Estu

arie

s

Wat

er S

uppl

y

Wat

er Q

ualit

y

Agric

ultu

re

Irrig

atio

n &

Drai

nage

Rura

l Po

pula

tions

Issue: Highly relevant Moderately relevantMRC Agreement Article 6 'Rules'

Art 6a "Acceptable" minimum low flows for each month of the dry season

Art 6b "Acceptable" natural reverse flow of the Tonle Sap in the wet season

Art 6c Average daily peak flows < average natural flood season conditions

WQ sub-issues:WQ sub-issues:Scenario Analysis Task E.3: Relevant trans-boundary issues by Sector

Sector: Nav

igat

ion

Salin

ity C

ontr

ol

Wet

land

s

Fish

erie

s

Ecos

yste

ms

Estu

arie

s

Wat

er S

uppl

y

Wat

er Q

ualit

y

Agr

icul

ture

Irrig

atio

n &

D

rain

age

Rur

al

Popu

latio

ns

Issue: Highly relevant Moderately relevantMRC Agreement Article 6 'Rules'

1 Water Quality Deterioration & Sedimentation

1a Eutrophic conditions

1b Elevation of suspended sediment levels

1c Elevated levels of microbial pollution

1d Pesticide pollution

1e Elevated salinity levels upstream of the delta

1f Water quality changes caused by stratification

1g Acidification of surface waters and wetlands

1h Increased saline intrusion in the delta

Scenario Planning Step E.4: Indicators relevant to trans-boundary issues by Sector

 

 Suggested Indicator

DSF Tool Code

Source Data Available

  ISSUE Refer to indicator - tool table for tool reference numbers

  MRC Agreement Article 6 'Rules'

       

Art 6a "Acceptable" minimum low flows for each month of the dry season

Daily flow: duration of low flow events, duration of stable low flows, minimum flows

101F, 102F, 144F, 153F

DSF simulated

 

Art 6b "Acceptable" natural reverse flow of the Tonle Sap in the wet season

Daily flow (at Kratie): mean peak wet season flow

112FDSF simulated

 

    Daily flow (at Prek Kdam): date of flow reversal, peak reverse flow

162FDSF simulated

 

Art 6c Average daily peak flows < average natural flood season conditions

Daily flow: mean & highest wet season flows

112F, 111FDSF simulated

 

Scenario Planning Step E.5: DSF Tools for testing changes in indicators

First Level Second Level Third Level

Raw Data 101Means of Raw Data 102Moving Means of Raw Data 103Ranked Flood Events 111Mean Daily Flows (between years) 112Fitted Frequency Distributions 113Flood Start Date 121Flood End Date 122Flood Peak Date 123Rate of Flood Rise 124Rate of Flood Fall 125Flood Duration 126Flood Consistency by Event 127Flood Consistency - Cumulative 128

Cummulative Probability - all data at site Daily or Monthly 131

Cumulative Probability Distribution over Year

Daily or Monthly 132

Start Date 141End Date 142Duration 143Minimum Flow Value & Date 144Start Date 151End Date 152Duration 153Start Date 161Peak Date 162End Date 163Duration 163

Catchment Averaged Rainfall Generator (MQUAD) Catchment averaged rainfall 170 R

Tool Sub-categories Tool Number

TIM

E-SE

RIE

S A

NA

LYSI

S TO

OLS

Time-Series Plotting Tool

Time-Series Plots

Flood Event Analysis Tool

Annual Flood Frequency Analysis

Flood Threshold Analysis

Probability Exceedence Analysis Tool

Low Flow Analysis Tool

Low Flow Events

Low Flow Variability

Tonle Sap Flow – Reversal Analysis

F Q H D

Data Type

Time-Series Time-Series Tools:Tools:

Scenario Planning Step E5: DSF Tools for testing changes in indicators

Spatial Tools:Spatial Tools:

Country & Province Boundaries 201BDP Sub-areas 202

Infrastructure - roads, crop types, etc 211 SVillages & Associated Socio-Economic Data

212 S P

Environmental habitats & features 213 S

Graphical & Image Data Graphs & images 221

Cross-sections & long-sections Vertically classified cross-sections 231

Multiple Theme Overlay Analysis 241

Analysis of Spatial Changes Over Time 242Proximity Analysis Proximity Analysis 251

Network Analysis Network Analysis River Network Analysis for Connectivity 261 S

Combined Spatial - Time Series Analysis

ISIS Model Output & DEM Analysis Flood Extent & Duration 271 S

DSF Main View GIS View Scenario Views 281 SFlood depth maps 291Flood duration maps 292Salinity intrusion maps 293Sailnity duration maps 294

Specialist Statistical Analysis & Visual Representations

User Defined analyses User Defined functions & criteria 301 M

ISIS Mapping

Planning Sub-Areas

Environmental & Socio-Economic Features

Miscellaneous Data Formats

LINK TO SPATIAL SOFTWARE (ArcView GIS)

Digital Overlay AnalysisOverlay Analysis

S

S

V

F = flow Q = Water Quality H = Water Height D = Depth P = Pop. Data M = miscellaneous or multiple V = visual S = spatial R = rainfall A = area

Shaded cells = tools available within the DSF Un-shaded cells = tools or functions outside the DSF

ISIS Flow

ISIS Quality

S H D

S W

LINKS TO FUNCTIONAL RELATIONSHIP TOOLS

SPA

TIA

L A

NA

LYSI

S TO

OLS

SPATIAL DATA SETS in DSF Knowledge Base

GIS Layers (area, line & point features)

Example of indicators & reports – demonstration scenarios:Example of indicators & reports – demonstration scenarios:

Test Issue Analysis

Indicators Indicator Reports Location

1. “Acceptable

” Minimum flows in the dry season

1.1

Mean daily dry season flows for each month of the dry-season

Extreme annual minimum daily flow

Difference in mean daily discharge (cumecs) for each dry season month between the Baseline & development scenarios’ greater than one standard deviation.

Comparison table of development scenario value verses baseline scenario

• Representative mainstream primary reporting sites

1.2 Dry season flow duration curves (cumulative probability of exceedance)

Flow duration curve graphs (daily flows) for the dry season only, using both the ‘Annual Distribution – Monthly’ for whole year & Daily FDC for 1 Dec to 31 May

• Representative mainstream primary reporting sites

1.3 Low Flow variability

Start, duration & end of the dry season Low flow variability – median duration

without a relative change in flow greater than 1/10 the median flow for at least 30 days

• Representative mainstream primary reporting sites

1.4 Visual comparison of time-series data

Time-series plots of low flows by date and overlaid with the Baseline. Zoom plot to only lower flows and period 1998 – 2000.

• Representative mainstream primary reporting sites

PART 2: USING THE DSFPART 2: USING THE DSF

1.1. Your team and other little helpersYour team and other little helpers

2.2. Where to find the DSFWhere to find the DSF

3.3. Mother’s shopping listMother’s shopping list

4.4. Conversations with an monkConversations with an monk

5.5. Other things that you will needOther things that you will need

6.6. Oh, so someone has been here before?Oh, so someone has been here before?

7.7. But now we are real explorers…But now we are real explorers…

8.8. Shhhh, its thinking….Shhhh, its thinking….

9.9. Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts…Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts…

1. Your team and other little helpers1. Your team and other little helpers

Planning team:Planning team: PlannersPlanners Sector programsSector programs National agenciesNational agencies Specialist modellersSpecialist modellers

2. Where to find the DSF2. Where to find the DSF

Coming to a store near you Coming to a store near you soon:soon: In the MRC secretariat mobile In the MRC secretariat mobile

officeoffice In each of the 4 NMC officesIn each of the 4 NMC offices

At each location:At each location: Accessible by any authorised Accessible by any authorised

user on a PC linked to the user on a PC linked to the office LANoffice LAN

Regular updates to each Regular updates to each office to ensure data office to ensure data consistencyconsistency

DSF – all customers served over 6yrsDSF – all customers served over 6yrs

3. Mother’s shopping list3. Mother’s shopping list

The DSF organises future basin The DSF organises future basin conditions within ‘scenarios’conditions within ‘scenarios’

Each scenario requires:Each scenario requires: An objectiveAn objective Specification of future conditionsSpecification of future conditions

Future conditions are organised by:Future conditions are organised by: Climate parametersClimate parameters Demands (water requirements)Demands (water requirements) Interventions (physical)Interventions (physical)

Mother’s National Plan

Shopping list for

Cambodia…

• Economic objectives

• Poverty alleviation

• Infrastructure development

• Subsistence fisheries objectives

• Power generation

• Agricultural development

• …

…and various other national

goals & objectives

Mother’s National Plan

Shopping list for

Cambodia…

• Economic objectives

• Poverty alleviation

• Infrastructure development

• Subsistence fisheries objectives

• Power generation

• Agricultural development

• …

…and various other national

goals & objectives

4. Conversations with an monk4. Conversations with an monk

Basin Planning using a DSF requires many types of monks:Basin Planning using a DSF requires many types of monks:

Planning monksPlanning monks – mostly you guys, including; – mostly you guys, including; River basin planners, e.g. for water resource developmentRiver basin planners, e.g. for water resource development EconomistsEconomists Social specialistsSocial specialists

Sector monksSector monks (MRCS, NMCs, National agencies)(MRCS, NMCs, National agencies);; FisheriesFisheries NavigationNavigation EnvironmentEnvironment AgricultureAgriculture AquacultureAquaculture etcetc

Modelling monksModelling monks – i.e. – i.e. the DSF ‘monks’the DSF ‘monks’

5. Other things that you will need5. Other things that you will need

To run a new scenario the DSF monks need To run a new scenario the DSF monks need advice on:advice on: Input parameters:Input parameters:

ClimateClimate Demands / managementDemands / management Physical interventionsPhysical interventions

Output parameters:Output parameters: Which locations & frequencies (hourly, daily, Which locations & frequencies (hourly, daily,

weekly…) for each time-series parameterweekly…) for each time-series parameter Which time periods (whole year or a season or Which time periods (whole year or a season or

month)month) What parameters to use for maps of floods and What parameters to use for maps of floods and

saline intrusionsaline intrusion

Modelled water levels at Ben Luc 1998Modelled water levels at Ben Luc 1998

Water levels in Main Rivers Model Ben Luc 1998

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2000 2240 2480

time(hrs)

wat

er le

vel (

m)

VCD08000 BEN LUC

Mean ?

Daily maximum ?

Lowest ?Daily minimum?

Highest ?

10 days

6. Oh, so someone has been here before?6. Oh, so someone has been here before?

The results of previous scenarios can be saved The results of previous scenarios can be saved to the DSF for others to use:to the DSF for others to use: All models have All models have default output settingsdefault output settings – parameters, – parameters,

times & locationstimes & locations Scenario models are savedScenario models are saved – so if you want additional – so if you want additional

parameters, times & locations just ask the modeller parameters, times & locations just ask the modeller monks to re-run the models with your preferencesmonks to re-run the models with your preferences

Impact analysis resultsImpact analysis results may have been saved to the may have been saved to the DSFDSF

Caution! – be sure to check all assumptions, Caution! – be sure to check all assumptions, scenario configurations, indicator settings before scenario configurations, indicator settings before using using – ask your friendly modeller monk to assist – ask your friendly modeller monk to assist checking the model parameterschecking the model parameters

7. But now we are real explorers…7. But now we are real explorers…

Scenario set up time & difficultyScenario set up time & difficulty depends on the depends on the nature of the future conditions to be simulatednature of the future conditions to be simulated

Also…Also… All new scenarios are based on an existing scenarioAll new scenarios are based on an existing scenario The choice of the ‘parent’ scenario is up to the userThe choice of the ‘parent’ scenario is up to the user The most common ‘parent’ is likely to be the Baseline The most common ‘parent’ is likely to be the Baseline

Conditions scenario – as it the one to which others Conditions scenario – as it the one to which others are to be comparedare to be compared

New scenarios don’t always require all 3 models to be New scenarios don’t always require all 3 models to be re-runre-run

The 3 models can only be changed by the expert The 3 models can only be changed by the expert modeller monksmodeller monks

Hydrologic modelHydrologic model – – Can Can factorfactor rainfall & temperature easily rainfall & temperature easily Can introduce completely new climate data if Can introduce completely new climate data if

available – e.g. for climate change scenariosavailable – e.g. for climate change scenarios Soil, landcover, land management practices take Soil, landcover, land management practices take

more time – please have a coffeemore time – please have a coffee

Caution is need in modelling landuse change given the Caution is need in modelling landuse change given the limited data available for calibrationlimited data available for calibration

Location of SWAT sub-basins relative to potential damsLocation of SWAT sub-basins relative to potential dams

River Simulation modelRiver Simulation model – can change: – can change: Crop areas for both dry and wet seasonsCrop areas for both dry and wet seasons - moderately - moderately

easyeasy Crop water demandsCrop water demands - moderately easy- moderately easy Return flows (to the river) Return flows (to the river) - easy- easy New operational rules for existing damsNew operational rules for existing dams - easy if rules are clear- easy if rules are clear New storagesNew storages - moderately easy if all information available- moderately easy if all information available Non-irrigation demands – e.g. higher urban demands Non-irrigation demands – e.g. higher urban demands - easy- easy

Temperature and rainfall are changed through input files Temperature and rainfall are changed through input files common to both the Hydrologic and Simulation modelscommon to both the Hydrologic and Simulation models

River simulation model data needs:River simulation model data needs: ( =( = capacity to change these parameters )capacity to change these parameters )

Minimum dataMinimum data

CatchmentCatchment RainfallRainfall StreamflowStreamflow EvaporationEvaporation StoragesStorages Diversion locationsDiversion locations Design water useDesign water use

Desirable additional where Desirable additional where available/appropriateavailable/appropriate

Actual water useActual water use LicensingLicensing Crop types and areasCrop types and areas Actual pump capacitiesActual pump capacities User decisionsUser decisions Existing operating rulesExisting operating rules

Location of irrigation demand nodes in Isan ProvinceLocation of irrigation demand nodes in Isan Province

Hydrodynamic modelHydrodynamic model – can change; – can change; Physical topographic featuresPhysical topographic features

ChannelsChannels LeveesLevees RoadsRoads River channel location, width, depthRiver channel location, width, depth

River flowRiver flow By changes to flows at Kratie & Tonle Sap tributariesBy changes to flows at Kratie & Tonle Sap tributaries By alterations to water demands – irrigation & othersBy alterations to water demands – irrigation & others

Sea level changesSea level changes

Area covered by Area covered by the hydrodynamic the hydrodynamic modelmodel

$

$

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$$

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#

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$$$

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#

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#

#

#

Kratie

Prek Dam

Koh Khel

Neak Luong

Kompong Cham

Kampong Luong

Phnom Penh Port

Kampong Chhnang

Takmay (Chatomouk) Phnom Penh

2001 Calibration Points for iSIS model

Temporary Gauges

Permanent Gauge Sites#

Extra Gauges in Cambodia 2002

#

#

#

Kratie

Phnom Penh

Beginning the Hydrodynamic schematisation…Beginning the Hydrodynamic schematisation…

Hydrodynamic Hydrodynamic model node model node structurestructure

Detail of hydrodynamic modelDetail of hydrodynamic model

8. Shhhh, its thinking….8. Shhhh, its thinking….

Running the DSF simulations:Running the DSF simulations: Time for a cup of coffee – let the modellers get on the Time for a cup of coffee – let the modellers get on the

mysteriousmysterious ““I’ll be back!” modellers often come back wanting I’ll be back!” modellers often come back wanting

changes – (more) compromises needed in changes – (more) compromises needed in schematising the scenarioschematising the scenario

Each type of model takes different lengths of time to Each type of model takes different lengths of time to run – the Hydrodynamic model takes the longest – run – the Hydrodynamic model takes the longest – about 40 minutesabout 40 minutes

Saving the results to the DSF takes additional time – Saving the results to the DSF takes additional time – perhaps as long as it takes to run the modelsperhaps as long as it takes to run the models

The more you ask for (locations, short time-steps) the The more you ask for (locations, short time-steps) the longer they take to run and to save to the DSFlonger they take to run and to save to the DSF

The volumes of data are large – the DSF models & The volumes of data are large – the DSF models & results for 8 scenarios currently use 5 GBresults for 8 scenarios currently use 5 GB

9. Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts…9. Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts…

Checking & using the results:Checking & using the results: Users should have a pre-conception of what “should” Users should have a pre-conception of what “should”

result from a scenario –result from a scenario – Check against this pre-conceptionCheck against this pre-conception Explore differences relative to the baseline or other Explore differences relative to the baseline or other

‘reference’ scenario‘reference’ scenario Conduct ‘sensitivity’ tests by changing input parameter Conduct ‘sensitivity’ tests by changing input parameter

values & re-running the modelsvalues & re-running the models Use the impact analysis tools to;Use the impact analysis tools to;

Conduct the above checksConduct the above checks Explore the usefulness of particular indicators for Explore the usefulness of particular indicators for

analysing the changes of interestanalysing the changes of interest Conduct the comparative analysis with the selected Conduct the comparative analysis with the selected

indicatorsindicators

PART 3: USING THE IMPACT ANALYSIS PART 3: USING THE IMPACT ANALYSIS TOOLSTOOLS

Time-Series ToolsTime-Series Tools

Use the results of Use the results of the 3 simulation the 3 simulation modelsmodels

Simulated data Simulated data accessed through accessed through the main DSF the main DSF interfaceinterface

Tools

All simulated data are All simulated data are stored by scenario, so…stored by scenario, so…

First open a scenarioFirst open a scenario

By choosing from the drop-down menu…By choosing from the drop-down menu…

Choose the data sets:Choose the data sets: By site and/or by parameter…By site and/or by parameter…

Stung Treng

Phnom Penh

Choose options prior Choose options prior to running the toolto running the tool

Time Series Analysis Tool

01/ Jan/ 1985 - 31/ Dec/ 2000

[S5] Stung Treng: Flow (Simulated flow)gfedcbMeans: [S5] Stung Treng: Flow (Simulated flow)gfedcb

6/12/19996/12/19977/12/19957/12/19938/12/19918/12/19899/12/19879/12/1985

Flo

w(c

umec

s)

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Scenarios can be compared Scenarios can be compared using statistical parameters…using statistical parameters…

Time Series Analysis Tool

01/ Jan/ 1985 - 31/ Dec/ 2000

[S5] Kratie: Flow (Simulated flow )gfedcb[S2] Kratie: Flow (Simulated flow )gfedcb[S5] Kratie: Flow (Simulated flow ) - [S2] Kratie: Flow (Simulated flow )gfedcb

13/07/200015/03/200016/11/199919/07/199921/03/199921/11/199824/07/199826/03/199826/11/1997

Flo

w(c

umec

s)

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

-500

-1,000

……or using visual analysis of graphsor using visual analysis of graphs

Residual of Baseline to High Irrigation Growth

scenario

Monthly volumes:Monthly volumes:

Flow: Percentile Distribution

[S5] Kratie 50%ile (85-00)gfedcb [S2] Kratie 50%ile (85-00)gfedcb

01/Dec01/Nov01/Oct01/Sep01/Aug01/Jul01/Jun01/May01/Apr01/Mar01/Feb01/Jan

cum

ecs 10,000

Flow: Percentile Distribution

[S5] Kratie 50%ile (85-00)gfedcb [S2] Kratie 50%ile (85-00)gfedcb

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

Mon

thly

Tot

al [M

CM

]

10,000

Daily flows:Daily flows:

Comparisons using Comparisons using Cumulative Cumulative Exceedance tool:Exceedance tool:

Comparisons using Event Analysis tool:Comparisons using Event Analysis tool:

Flow (Simulated flow): Time Series Chart

[Th=6570cumecs, MinEvLen=30, MinIntLen=10]

Kratie (05/Jun/1985)gfedcb Kratie (11/May/1986)gfedcb Kratie (06/Jun/1987)gfedcbKratie (15/May/1988)gfedcb Kratie (24/May/1989)gfedcb Kratie (24/May/1990)gfedcbKratie (11/Jun/1991)gfedcb Kratie (11/Jun/1992)gfedcb Kratie (18/May/1993)gfedcbKratie (18/May/1994)gfedcb Kratie (05/Jun/1995)gfedcb Kratie (06/May/1996)gfedcbKratie (25/May/1997)gfedcb Kratie (29/May/1998)gfedcb Kratie (11/May/1999)gfedcbKratie (12/May/2000)gfedcb

Date06/Dec/199906/Dec/199707/Dec/199507/Dec/199308/Dec/199108/Dec/198909/Dec/198709/Dec/1985

Flo

w (

Sim

ulat

ed fl

ow)

(cum

ecs)

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Event Analysis Event Analysis tooltool

Right click to get more options…

Results of flood event analysis:Results of flood event analysis:

Flow (Simulated flow): Time Series Chart

[Th=29000cumecs, MinEvLen=2, MinIntLen=1]

Date06/Dec/199906/Dec/199707/Dec/199507/Dec/199308/Dec/199108/Dec/198909/Dec/198709/Dec/1985

Flo

w (

Sim

ulat

ed fl

ow)

(cum

ecs)

70,00065,00060,000

55,00050,00045,000

40,00035,00030,000

25,00020,00015,00010,000

5,0000

Results of flood event analysis if use 60 days Results of flood event analysis if use 60 days minimum event length:minimum event length:

Flow (Simulated flow): Time Series Chart

[Th=29000cumecs, MinEvLen=60, MinIntLen=30]

Date06/Dec/199906/Dec/199707/Dec/199507/Dec/199308/Dec/199108/Dec/198909/Dec/1987

Flo

w (

Sim

ulat

ed fl

ow)

(cum

ecs)

70,00065,00060,00055,000

50,00045,00040,00035,000

30,00025,00020,00015,000

10,0005,000

0

Additional analysis by exporting tabular data: Additional analysis by exporting tabular data:

Annual Peak Flows Scenario 6 LMB Dams verses Baseline Conditions

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

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Baseline Average Annual Peak Flow

Scenario 6 Average Annual Peak Flow

Difference in Average Peak Flow s

Baseline Highest Annual Peak Flow

LMB Dams Highest Annual Peak Flow

Difference in Highest Peak Flow s

Chian SaenLuang PrabangVientiane Nakom PhanomMukdahan Pakse Stung TrengKratieBaseline Highest Annual Peak Flow 13,300 18,026 17,855 32,023 35,691 47,675 66,389 67,579

LMB Dams Highest Annual Peak Flow 13,300 18,026 17,855 30,984 34,714 46,698 57,428 58,830Difference in Highest Peak Flows 0 0 0 -1039 -977 -977 -8961 -8749

Baseline Average Annual Peak Flow 9,754 14,065 14,739 24,020 26,046 34,127 43,715 44,855Scenario 6 Average Annual Peak Flow 9,754 14,065 14,739 23,702 25,697 33,712 45,549 46,787

Difference in Average Peak Flows 0 0 0 -318 -349 -415 1834 1932Percent Difference in Average Peaks 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 4 4Percent Difference in Highest Peaks 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -13 -13

Time-Series analysis tools:Time-Series analysis tools:

So…So… The analysis tools provide The analysis tools provide flexibilityflexibility Filter and input valuesFilter and input values are important are important Choosing filter values and settings Choosing filter values and settings depend on depend on

analysis objectivesanalysis objectives Results need to be checked Results need to be checked against expected against expected

outcomes and analysis objectivesoutcomes and analysis objectives

Spatial Tools:Spatial Tools:

Use spatial outputs from the hydrodynamic Use spatial outputs from the hydrodynamic modelmodel Flood depth mapsFlood depth maps Flood depth-duration mapsFlood depth-duration maps Salinity intrusion mapsSalinity intrusion maps Salinity intrusion-duration mapsSalinity intrusion-duration maps

Compare these with many different layers in the Compare these with many different layers in the Knowledge BaseKnowledge Base

Specialist GIS expertise is required to generate Specialist GIS expertise is required to generate original mapsoriginal maps

Raw output from Raw output from Delta MapperDelta Mapper

Imported DeltaMapper flood depth layer:Imported DeltaMapper flood depth layer:

Imported DeltaMapper flood duration layer:Imported DeltaMapper flood duration layer:

Imported DeltaMapper max. salinity intrusion layer:Imported DeltaMapper max. salinity intrusion layer:

Spatial analysis tools:Spatial analysis tools:

So…So… The spatial analysis tools provide The spatial analysis tools provide flexibilityflexibility Specialist assistanceSpecialist assistance is needed is needed Choosing thresholds Choosing thresholds depend on analysis objectivesdepend on analysis objectives Results need to be checked Results need to be checked against expected against expected

outcomes and analysis objectivesoutcomes and analysis objectives

Thank youThank you