using model builder to forecast election results -

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USING MODEL BUILDER TO FORECAST ELECTION RESULTS Ryan Kelly Professor of Geography, GISP Bluegrass Community & Technical College ABSTRACT Model Builder is one of the most powerful tools currently available to users of ArcGIS Desktop. This document will examine how Model Builder was used to forecast the results of the upcoming 2012 Presidential Election at the county level. The document will cover what variables were incorporated into the analysis, the methodology of the analysis, and the limitations of using Model Builder to make predictive forecasts of a national election. NOTE: The author has elected to withhold specific variables, mathematical formulae and construction details of his predictive model for proprietary reasons. The federal election is fast approaching. Most political pundits are predicting a close turnout. Billions of dollars will be spent by the two major parties to ensure their candidate will occupy the White House come January 20, 2013. Exhaustive analyses have been performed to ensure that campaign finances are applied to specific states, counties and precincts where they are most apt to influence the final voting outcome. The use of Geographic Information Systems technology in performing predictive analyses on the elections be they at the local, state or federal level, is a relatively new phenomenon. Model Builder enables the user to create a vast analytical tool that can examine hundreds of variables germane to voting habits and trends to build a predictive model for the end results of

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Page 1: using model builder to forecast election results -

USING MODEL BUILDER TO FORECAST ELECTION RESULTS

Ryan Kelly Professor of Geography, GISP Bluegrass Community & Technical College

ABSTRACT

Model Builder is one of the most powerful tools currently available to users of ArcGIS Desktop. This document will examine how Model Builder was used to forecast the results of the upcoming 2012 Presidential Election at the county level. The document will cover what variables were incorporated into the analysis, the methodology of the analysis, and the limitations of using Model Builder to make predictive forecasts of a national election. NOTE: The author has elected to withhold specific variables, mathematical formulae and construction details of his predictive model for proprietary reasons.

The federal election is fast approaching. Most political pundits are predicting a close turnout.

Billions of dollars will be spent by the two major parties to ensure their candidate will occupy

the White House come January 20, 2013. Exhaustive analyses have been performed to ensure

that campaign finances are applied to specific states, counties and precincts where they are

most apt to influence the final voting outcome.

The use of Geographic Information Systems technology in performing predictive analyses on

the elections – be they at the local, state or federal level, is a relatively new phenomenon.

Model Builder enables the user to create a vast analytical tool that can examine hundreds of

variables germane to voting habits and trends to build a predictive model for the end results of

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an election. The model operates on one basic caveat – there will not be an “October Surprise”

which has the power to dramatically alter the voting landscape (ex. major terrorist attack within

the USA, war between Israel-Iran, etc.) It assigns specific weights to each variable to attempt

to make as an accurate as possible prediction on the turnout and composition of that turnout

on November 6, 2012.

VARIABLES More than seventy variables were incorporated into Model Builder to perform a predictive

analysis at the county level. The author, wishing to protect the propriety nature of his

predictive analysis model, will disclose the three most reliable variables within the analysis.

Net Change between 2004 and 2008 Federal Election – This is the single most reliable

predictor at the county level. Analysis revealed that a county which voted Democratic in

2004 stood a 91% chance that it voted Democratic in 2008. A county which voted

Republican in 2004 stood an 87% chance that it voted Republican in 2008. Further

analysis revealed that if a county voted Democratic in 2004 by a margin >= 55% of the

total county vote that it stood a 98% chance it voted Democratic in 2008. A county

which voted Republican in 2004 by a margin >=55% of the total county vote stood a

97.5% chance it voted Republican in 2008. A series of variables were created to develop

an equation to determine the likelihood that any one county would vote either

Democratic or Republican in 2012, and by what margin it would vote for a specific party.

Historic Voting Trends – The model incorporated results from the past twelve election

cycles dating back to 1964. The 1964 Presidential Election was chosen as the starting

point for the historic analysis due to the fact that it was the first election cycle in which

the Southern states largely voted Republican after a century of voting solidly

Democratic. It is the only post-WWII election in which there was a large turnover from

one political party to the other at the county level. Each county was given a ranking as

to how many times it had vacillated during the cycle between 1964 and 2008. A county,

for example, which voted Republican in every election cycle, starting with 1964, would

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be given a ranking of “0” indicating a very high level of predictability. A county which

voted Republican in 1964, 1968 and 1972, then voted Democratic in 1976, then

proceeded to vote Republican in 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 and 2004, and

then voted Democratic in 2008 would be given a ranking of “3” indicative of the three

shifts in voting patterns across the last half-century. The higher the number, the lower

the predictability. The predictability variable was then incorporated into the model and

each county was assigned a reliability score.

Demographics by Race – Minority voters, in particular African-Americans, Latinos and

Native Americans have in recent election cycles voted decisively Democratic. African-

American voters, for example, went 95.2% for Barack Obama in 2008, Latino voters

went 67.1% for Obama in 2008, and Native American voters voted 78.2 % for Obama in

2008. These statistics can be further broken down by state, where there were wide

variations, in particular with Latino voters, from state-to-state, depending upon the

primary ancestry of the Latino voter. A weighted variable was assigned to these three

minority cohorts, by state, and incorporated into the overall structure of the model.

POPULATION AND VOTER TURNOUT

The next step of the analysis was to compile US Census data to examine the change in

population between 2000 and 2010. The growth rate for each county was calculated from 2000

to 2010, and then growth for the two-year interim between 2010 and the 2012 election was

extrapolated to generate an estimated population of each county. Census data were also used

to determine what percent of each county’s population was below the age of 18 (and thus

ineligible to vote) so as to generate a raw figure, per county, of eligible voters.

Example: Fayette County (KY) Population 2000: 243,315 Population 2010: 295,803 Percent growth 2000-2010: (295,803 – 243,315)/ (295,803) = 17.74% (Y (2010 Population)) *(0.2) = [(0.1774) (295,803)] (0.2) = 10,495 Population 2010 + Z = 2012 Population (R) = 295,803 + 10,495 = 306,298 Voting Eligible (2012 Population) = (306,298) (0.7241) = 221,755

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Historic voter turnout data was then examined for each county for every presidential election

from 1964-2008, and regression analysis was incorporated to generate a z-value for each

county to predict what percent of the eligible voting age population would come out to vote in

2012. That figure was then reduced by 2.0% for all counties across the nation, as it is widely

believed that there will be less-than-expected turnout in the 2012 election, with the figure lying

somewhere between 1.5% and 2.5% depending upon the study.

RESULTS

The political prognosis has indicated for months that the 2012 federal election is a nine-state

race. Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and

Wisconsin are the only states in which the outcome is in question. The model was run twice,

once to create a general analysis on the entire nation, and then a second time using state-

specific variables for the nine states in play. The end result was that the model, as expected,

predicted that the electoral votes of the forty-one states not “in play” would go to the expected

victor (see Table #1).

NOT IN PLAY – DEMOCRATIC

1. California – 55 2. Connecticut – 7 3. Delaware – 3 4. District of Columbia – 3 5. Hawaii – 4 6. Illinois – 20 7. Maine – 4 8. Maryland – 10 9. Massachusetts – 11 10. Michigan – 16 11. Minnesota – 10 12. New Jersey –14 13. New Mexico –5 14. New York – 29 15. Oregon – 7 16. Rhode Island – 4 17. Vermont –3 18. Washington – 12 TOTAL: 217 Electoral Votes

NOT IN PLAY – REPUBLICAN

1. Alabama – 9 2. Alaska – 3 3. Arizona – 11 4. Arkansas – 6 5. Georgia – 16 6. Idaho – 4 7. Indiana – 11 8. Kansas – 6 9. Kentucky – 8 10. Louisiana – 8 11. Mississippi – 6 12. Missouri – 10 13. Montana – 3 14. Nebraska – 5 15. North Carolina – 15 16. North Dakota – 3 17. Oklahoma – 7 18. South Carolina – 9

19. South Dakota – 3 20. Tennessee – 11 21. Texas – 38 22. Utah – 6 23. West Virginia – 5 24. Wyoming – 3

TOTAL: 206 Electoral Votes

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STATE-BY-STATE ANALYSIS OF BATTLEGROUND STATES

COLORADO (9): Obama: 1,027,989 (50.51%) Romney: 1,007,229 (49.49%) The model predicted an extremely narrow victory for the incumbent in Colorado, with less than

20,000 votes separating the two candidates statewide. The difference will prove to be key

voting cohorts in several suburban Denver counties where there has been both significant

growth as well as racial diversification of the suburbs within the past election cycle which favors

the Democrat. An increase in Latino voters residing in counties adjacent to New Mexico, in

particular in smaller communities such as Alamosa and Trinidad, will also prove to be the

difference in Colorado. The changing demographic landscape of the Rocky Mountain State

indicates that counties located in the highlands of central Colorado will continue to trend more

Democratic in coming election cycles, whereas the counties located on the High Plains of

eastern Colorado will become more staunchly Republican in subsequent election cycles.

FLORIDA (29): Obama: 3,683,441 (49.75%) Romney: 3,719,717 (50.25%) The model predicted that the top prize amongst the battleground states, Florida, will, by the

narrowest of margins, revert back into the GOP column in 2012. Florida is a notoriously difficult

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state on which to run predictive analyses due to its ever-shifting transient and seasonal

population coupled with specific economic issues (which cannot be incorporated into Model

Builder) that have driven both an influx and exodus of people into and from the Sunshine State.

The Interstate 4 corridor will once again play a decisive role in deciding the victor in Florida.

The corridor, which runs from the Tampa-St. Petersburg conurbation along the Gulf of Mexico,

through the bedroom communities of Plant City and Zephyrhills onto Orlando in the center of

the state, will prove to be the tipping point, with Romney taking the central Florida counties by

just enough votes to overcome a strong showing by Obama in the three heavily urbanized

counties of southern Florida – Palm Beach, Broward and Dade.

IOWA (6): Obama: 752,857 (52.08%) Romney: 692,740 (47.92%) The model predicted that Iowa will remain in the Democratic column for the 2012 election,

with the eastern, and more populous, half of the state continuing its long-term trend to the

Democratic Party, while the western half of the state, the majority of which saw a population

decline between 2000-10, turning sharply more Republican. The most polarization in the

Hawkeye State can be found around the Sioux Falls metropolitan center, which is predicted to

go sharply Republican, and around Iowa City, home to the major research facility at the

University of Iowa, which follows a nationwide trend of counties home to major college

campuses going Democratic.

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NEVADA (6): Obama: 431,007 (52.52%) Romney: 389,686 (47.48%) The model gave Obama a decisive edge in Nevada – where the majority of statewide votes are

cast in just one county – Clark. The numerical advantage of Democratic voters in the Las Vegas

metropolitan area, where a sizeable percentage of the population is Latino, and where

unemployment benefits remain sacrosanct in a state hit hard by the recession and housing

bust, will overcome the very strong GOP presence in the more rural parts of the state. The

model predicted that Obama will win by more than 70,000 votes within Clark County, enough

to offset sizeable GOP victories in the rural counties of the Silver State. The model also

predicted a Democratic victory in Washoe County, revealing that the further racial

diversification of northwestern Nevada continues a long-term trend of voting Democratic at the

federal level.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4): Obama: 322,421 (52.43%) Romney: 292,509 (47.57%) The model predicted that President Obama will win by a small, but comfortable, margin in the

Granite State. New Hampshire’s long-standing reputation as a libertarian redoubt, coupled

with bedroom communities in the southeastern corner of the state, comprised of voters who

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work in Boston but reside in the far more tax-friendly Granite State, will enable Romney to run

close to Obama and gain a plurality of voters in Belknap, Carroll and Rockingham counties, but

not enough to wrest the state, won by Bush in 2000, back into the GOP column.

OHIO (18): Obama: 2,621,426 (50.14%) Romney: 2,606,893 (49.86%)

The model predicted that the concentrated efforts of the President to hold onto Ohio – the

state which most researchers argue is the linchpin for the election – will bear fruit, albeit by the

narrowest of margins. No state in the analysis generated as close a turnout as did the Buckeye

State. The model predicted that Romney will improve upon McCain’s showing in Ohio, most

notably in the GOP dominated suburban counties around Cincinnati, as well as in the north-

central Ohio rural hinterlands, but will fall just short of taking the state in 2012, as large

Democratic turnouts in northeastern Ohio and in the state capital of Columbus will allow, by

less than 15,000 votes, for the state’s eighteen electoral votes to go to Obama.

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PENNSYLVANIA (20): Obama: 2,949,886 (53.13%) Romney: 2,602,244 (46.87%) Many analysts argue whether Pennsylvania can truly be considered a battleground state, as no

GOP candidate has taken the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. The model corroborated that

sentiment, predicting that President Obama will win by a wide margin in the Keystone State –

by almost 350,000 votes, primarily on the strength of a large turnout in heavily Democratic

southeastern Pennsylvania and within the metropolitan core of Philadelphia. The out-migration

and aging of people in the rural mountainous counties of central Pennsylvania will continue to

produce a lower voter turnout in several election cycles to come, and will likely keep

Pennsylvania in the Democratic column in subsequent election cycles.

VIRGINIA (13): Obama: 1,622,187 (49.47%) Romney: 1,656,803 (50.53%)

The model predicted that Romney will win a narrow victory against Obama in Virginia, placing

that pivotal state back into the GOP column after it went Democratic in 2008. The model

pinpointed that it will be suburban voters residing in bedroom communities in counties 40-50

miles from both the Washington DC conurbation, as well as in the Norfolk-Virginia Beach urban

core, who will be instrumental in delivering the thirteen electoral votes to Romney.

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WISCONSIN (10): Obama: 1,515,150 (53.31%) Romney: 1,326,848 (46.69%)

The model defied the conventional wisdom that has Wisconsin trending Republican, especially

after the selection of its native son, Paul Ryan, as the vice-presidential candidate on the GOP

ticket. The model predicted that Obama will win by a comfortable margin over Romney in

Wisconsin, by almost 200,000 votes. The general pattern of Wisconsin trending more

Democratic will continue in 2012, especially in the rural southwestern corner of the county,

which traditionally has been a Democratic stronghold. Note: the model did not incorporate any

specific variables to incorporate the impact of a native son on the GOP ticket for vice president.

LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL

A predictive election model has a host of limitations. The major flaw is using the county as the

primary geographic unit of analysis. There is incredible variance within the boundaries of a

county in terms of demographics, income, etc. – and turnout. The analytical model used in this

research did not have access to precinct level data – a far more detailed geographic unit, nor

would it be feasible to use such data, as the boundaries of precincts change from election cycle

to election cycle. The model thus worked under the assumption that all precincts within a given

county would have identical turnout rates – hardly the case when one examines data at the

precinct level. The model also is limited in its ability to determine in which state do specific

residents vote. There is a sizeable transient population within the USA who may reside in one

state at the time of the census is distributed – yet may vote in a different state. An example

would be “snowbirds” who reside in New York or Connecticut for six months of the year yet

may call Florida home for the winter months. Too often such individuals are tabulated as

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residents of a different state, thus altering the final predicted voting results of the model. The

predicted results in several of the key battleground corroborate just how small such a variance

can produce a major impact on determining which way a state’s electoral votes will go.

CONCLUSIONS

The final product produced by the predictive model, by county, is as follows:

The prediction for the 2012 election, by county, produces a result with little variance from the

past three election cycles. A total of 2416 out of 3140 counties, or 76.94% of the aggregate

total, will vote for the Republican candidate. This will be up from 2259 out of 3140, or 71.94%

from the 2008 federal election, but down from the 2552 out of 3140 counties (81.27%)

achieved by George W. Bush in 2004. Romney will be able to regain four states lost to Obama

in 2008 – Florida, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, totaling 68 electoral votes, but it will not

be enough to unseat the incumbent, who will hold onto key states, most notably Ohio,

Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada, in his successful bid for re-election.

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The actual election on November 6, 2012 will reveal the true success or failure of this predictive

model. Should the model prove to be an accurate harbinger of the actual results of the

election, several key items need to be pinpointed:

The increased urbanization/suburbanization of several high-growth counties in Western states will continue to become more racially diversified, which will favor the Democratic Party in future election cycles. Key counties that will be targeted in upcoming election cycles include Washoe (NV), Pima (AZ), Pitkin (CO) and Gallatin (MT)

The increase in the Latino population across the Sunbelt states and Western states will continue to favor the Democratic Party lest the GOP make significant changes to their party platform with respect to issues germane to Latinos. The vast majority of population growth (and registered voter growth) will be with the Latino population in the next three decades. This population will increasingly be concentrated in key battleground states in the West (ex. Colorado, Nevada), in the Southeast (ex. North Carolina, Georgia) and in urban cores of northern cities in states which are reliably Democratic, thereby negating any inroads which the GOP might make in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Texas, once a solidly GOP-dominated state, could very well be in play in coming election cycles as the state’s population continues to become more diversified via immigration from Mexico as well internal migration from other parts of the USA – the loss of Texas would be the death knell for the Republican Party, as there is no conceivable path for the GOP to reach 270 without Texas’ electoral votes.

Regions of the country which heavily favor the GOP (ex. the Great Plains, Appalachia) will continue to grow older and see a continued out-migration to other regions. These regions will account for fewer overall electoral votes in coming election cycles, thereby narrowing the window of opportunity for the GOP candidate to reach 270 electoral votes.

High-growth suburban counties in battleground states in the mid-Atlantic and the Upper Midwest will continue to decide the federal election in the immediate future. Examples of these include Anoka (MN), Butler (OH), Livingston (MI), Stafford (VA) and Wake (NC). The data suggest that for the next couple of election cycles we will continue to see the urban-rural polarization that has defined the electoral map in the 21st century, and thus candidates for both parties will continue to expend the vast majority of their time and financial resources targeting suburban and exurban communities of the USA.

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TABLE 1 – PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS BY STATE, 2012 STATE Obama % Vote Romney % Vote Electoral Votes

Alabama 746,563 39.08% 1,163,658 60.92% 9

Alaska 69,713 36.57% 120,848 63.43% 3

Arizona 864,775 45.51% 1,035,435 54.49% 11

Arkansas 436,966 43.06% 577,807 56.94% 6

California 6,523,997 58.30% 4,667,181 41.70% 55

Colorado 1,027,989 50.51% 1,007,229 49.49% 9

Connecticut 911,740 58.94% 635,092 41.06% 7

Delaware 220,241 58.62% 155,442 41.38% 3

District of Columbia 199,374 91.85% 17,689 8.15% 3

Florida 3,683,441 49.75% 3,719,717 50.25% 29

Georgia 1,521,390 44.95% 1,863,120 55.05% 16

Hawaii 267,129 64.22% 148,803 35.78% 4

Idaho 196,002 33.44% 390,178 66.56% 4

Illinois 3,002,897 58.75% 2,108,878 41.25% 20

Indiana 1,129,972 45.35% 1,361,648 54.65% 11

Iowa 752,857 52.08% 692,740 47.92% 6

Kansas 455,889 39.84% 688,420 60.16% 6

Kentucky 713,646 41.26% 1,016,193 58.74% 8

Louisiana 796,875 42.36% 1,084,470 57.64% 8

Maine 376,625 56.12% 294,488 43.88% 4

Maryland 1,401,281 58.10% 1,010,451 41.90% 10

Massachusetts 1,798,671 63.30% 1,042,925 36.70% 11

Michigan 2,583,231 55.00% 2,113,904 45.00% 16

Minnesota 1,440,540 53.30% 1,262,329 46.70% 10

Mississippi 472,867 41.74% 659,921 58.26% 6

Missouri 1,305,193 48.41% 1,390,822 51.59% 10

Montana 190,466 43.29% 249,545 56.71% 3

Nebraska 276,814 37.51% 461,227 62.49% 5

Nevada 431,007 52.52% 389,686 47.48% 6

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STATE Obama % Vote Romney % Vote Electoral Votes

New Hampshire 322,421 52.43% 292,509 47.57% 4

New Jersey 1,954,962 56.12% 1,528,308 43.88% 14

New Mexico 391,646 53.46% 340,916 46.54% 5

New York 4,287,519 61.67% 2,665,328 38.33% 29

North Carolina 1,731,828 46.99% 1,953,848 53.01% 15

North Dakota 120,907 40.27% 179,304 59.73% 3

Ohio 2,621,426 50.14% 2,606,893 49.86% 18

Oklahoma 496,619 35.24% 912,474 64.76% 7

Oregon 914,738 54.52% 762,978 45.48% 7

Pennsylvania 2,949,886 53.13% 2,602,244 46.87% 20

Rhode Island 273,657 63.28% 158,792 36.72% 4

South Carolina 729,299 43.51% 947,029 56.49% 9

South Dakota 152,094 41.99% 210,129 58.01% 3

Tennessee 1,042,831 43.57% 1,350,481 56.43% 11

Texas 3,050,024 41.27% 4,338,999 58.73% 38

Utah 259,657 30.83% 582,650 69.17% 6

Vermont 175,999 62.60% 105,156 37.40% 3

Virginia 1,622,187 49.47% 1,656,803 50.53% 13

Washington 1,201,925 55.06% 981,198 44.94% 12

West Virginia 308,432 44.09% 391,137 55.91% 5

Wisconsin 1,515,150 53.31% 1,326,848 46.69% 10

Wyoming 73,852 31.31% 162,050 68.69% 3

TOTAL 59,995,210 51.11% 57,385,920 48.89% 290-248

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TABLE 2 – PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS BY COUNTY, 2012

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Autauga Alabama 5391 15463 25.85% 74.15%

Baldwin Alabama 16915 53936 23.87% 76.13%

Barbour Alabama 5290 5704 48.12% 51.88%

Bibb Alabama 2316 5550 29.44% 70.56%

Blount Alabama 3982 17660 18.40% 81.60%

Bullock Alabama 3603 1434 71.53% 28.47%

Butler Alabama 3794 5009 43.10% 56.90%

Calhoun Alabama 15790 29262 35.05% 64.95%

Chambers Alabama 6045 7464 44.75% 55.25%

Cherokee Alabama 2812 6135 31.43% 68.57%

Chilton Alabama 3957 12706 23.75% 76.25%

Choctaw Alabama 3539 3975 47.10% 52.90%

Clarke Alabama 5207 6887 43.05% 56.95%

Clay Alabama 1851 4566 28.85% 71.15%

Cleburne Alabama 1352 4510 23.06% 76.94%

Coffee Alabama 4906 13174 27.13% 72.87%

Colbert Alabama 10186 13280 43.41% 56.59%

Conecuh Alabama 3041 3228 48.51% 51.49%

Coosa Alabama 2161 2940 42.36% 57.64%

Covington Alabama 3567 11223 24.12% 75.88%

Crenshaw Alabama 1857 3798 32.84% 67.16%

Cullman Alabama 7339 25507 22.34% 77.66%

Dale Alabama 4921 13060 27.37% 72.63%

Dallas Alabama 12366 7099 63.53% 36.47%

De Kalb Alabama 6445 16463 28.13% 71.87%

Elmore Alabama 7310 22500 24.52% 75.48%

Escambia Alabama 4577 8550 34.87% 65.13%

Etowah Alabama 14974 27269 35.45% 64.55%

Fayette Alabama 2367 5474 30.19% 69.81%

Franklin Alabama 4112 7500 35.41% 64.59%

Geneva Alabama 2256 8384 21.20% 78.80%

Greene Alabama 3990 898 81.63% 18.37%

Hale Alabama 4786 3177 60.10% 39.90%

Henry Alabama 2764 4998 35.61% 64.39%

Houston Alabama 10559 26860 28.22% 71.78%

Jackson Alabama 7723 11980 39.20% 60.80%

Jefferson Alabama 146744 150266 49.41% 50.59%

Lamar Alabama 1959 5033 28.02% 71.98%

Lauderdale Alabama 13878 21960 38.72% 61.28%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Lawrence Alabama 5744 7956 41.93% 58.07%

Lee Alabama 18163 28684 38.77% 61.23%

Limestone Alabama 9276 20207 31.46% 68.54%

Lowndes Alabama 4845 1762 73.33% 26.67%

Macon Alabama 8501 1386 85.98% 14.02%

Madison Alabama 56731 78162 42.06% 57.94%

Marengo Alabama 5388 5243 50.68% 49.32%

Marion Alabama 3446 8765 28.22% 71.78%

Marshall Alabama 8245 22804 26.55% 73.45%

Mobile Alabama 70604 91450 43.57% 56.43%

Monroe Alabama 4286 5832 42.36% 57.64%

Montgomery Alabama 51580 41981 55.13% 44.87%

Morgan Alabama 14449 32547 30.75% 69.25%

Perry Alabama 4115 1709 70.66% 29.34%

Pickens Alabama 4263 5092 45.57% 54.43%

Pike Alabama 5016 7388 40.44% 59.56%

Randolph Alabama 2987 6265 32.28% 67.72%

Russell Alabama 9137 8023 53.25% 46.75%

Shelby Alabama 17024 62376 21.44% 78.56%

St. Clair Alabama 5966 23917 19.96% 80.04%

Sumter Alabama 4809 1754 73.27% 26.73%

Talladega Alabama 12414 18116 40.66% 59.34%

Tallapoosa Alabama 5881 12134 32.65% 67.35%

Tuscaloosa Alabama 28836 42005 40.71% 59.29%

Walker Alabama 8885 18594 32.33% 67.67%

Washington Alabama 3148 5087 38.23% 61.77%

Wilcox Alabama 4068 1802 69.30% 30.70%

Winston Alabama 2124 7735 21.54% 78.46%

Aleutians West Alaska 501 460 52.13% 47.87%

Aluetians East Alaska 1074 2382 31.08% 68.92%

Anchorage Alaska 33273 53005 38.56% 61.44%

Bethel Alaska 1172 1217 49.06% 50.94%

Bristol Bay Alaska 122 178 40.67% 59.33%

Dillingham Alaska 614 1014 37.71% 62.29%

Fairbanks North Star Alaska 9396 17494 34.94% 65.06%

Haines Alaska 403 496 44.83% 55.17%

Juneau Alaska 4593 4443 50.83% 49.17%

Kenai Peninsula Alaska 7340 15479 32.17% 67.83%

Ketchikan Gateway Alaska 772 1390 35.71% 64.29%

Kodiak Island Alaska 612 1201 33.76% 66.24%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Lake and Peninsula Alaska 339 704 32.50% 67.50%

Matanuska-Susitna Alaska 2777 9582 22.47% 77.53%

Nome Alaska 673 719 48.35% 51.65%

North Slope Alaska 492 1028 32.37% 67.63%

Northwest Arctic Alaska 351 547 39.09% 60.91%

Prince of Wales-Ketchikan Alaska 528 784 40.24% 59.76%

Sitka Alaska 1032 1248 45.26% 54.74%

Skagway-Yakutat-Angoon Alaska 925 2067 30.92% 69.08%

Southeast Fairbanks Alaska 287 1091 20.83% 79.17%

Valdez-Cordova Alaska 243 818 22.90% 77.10%

Wade Hampton Alaska 555 496 52.81% 47.19%

Wrangell-Petersburg Alaska 576 1088 34.62% 65.38%

Yukon-Koyukuk Alaska 1063 1917 35.67% 64.33%

Apache Arizona 14843 7841 65.43% 34.57%

Cochise Arizona 16782 25154 40.02% 59.98%

Coconino Arizona 26283 20055 56.72% 43.28%

Gila Arizona 7726 11877 39.41% 60.59%

Graham Arizona 3357 7546 30.79% 69.21%

Greenlee Arizona 1170 1753 40.03% 59.97%

La Paz Arizona 1807 3085 36.94% 63.06%

Maricopa Arizona 490572 627406 43.88% 56.12%

Mohave Arizona 19585 35216 35.74% 64.26%

Navajo Arizona 14205 17044 45.46% 54.54%

Pima Arizona 182291 159685 53.31% 46.69%

Pinal Arizona 32520 42458 43.37% 56.63%

Santa Cruz Arizona 7324 4307 62.97% 37.03%

Yavapai Arizona 31826 52540 37.72% 62.28%

Yuma Arizona 14484 19468 42.66% 57.34%

Arkansas Arkansas 2839 3868 42.33% 57.67%

Ashley Arkansas 3520 4680 42.93% 57.07%

Baxter Arkansas 6727 11536 36.83% 63.17%

Benton Arkansas 21163 45868 31.57% 68.43%

Boone Arkansas 4514 9861 31.40% 68.60%

Bradley Arkansas 1950 2073 48.47% 51.53%

Calhoun Arkansas 846 1346 38.59% 61.41%

Carroll Arkansas 4035 5994 40.23% 59.77%

Chicot Arkansas 2925 1783 62.13% 37.87%

Clark Arkansas 4595 4268 51.84% 48.16%

Clay Arkansas 2870 2768 50.90% 49.10%

Cleburne Arkansas 3733 7181 34.20% 65.80%

Page 18: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Cleveland Arkansas 1202 2132 36.05% 63.95%

Columbia Arkansas 3813 5563 40.67% 59.33%

Conway Arkansas 3502 4207 45.43% 54.57%

Craighead Arkansas 12323 16364 42.96% 57.04%

Crawford Arkansas 5980 13389 30.87% 69.13%

Crittenden Arkansas 8941 7003 56.08% 43.92%

Cross Arkansas 2880 3914 42.39% 57.61%

Dallas Arkansas 1590 1696 48.39% 51.61%

Desha Arkansas 2718 1848 59.53% 40.47%

Drew Arkansas 2819 3415 45.22% 54.78%

Faulkner Arkansas 13778 22007 38.50% 61.50%

Franklin Arkansas 2427 4081 37.29% 62.71%

Fulton Arkansas 2037 2493 44.97% 55.03%

Garland Arkansas 16194 22605 41.74% 58.26%

Grant Arkansas 2099 4364 32.48% 67.52%

Greene Arkansas 5610 7521 42.72% 57.28%

Hempstead Arkansas 3419 3807 47.32% 52.68%

Hot Spring Arkansas 5100 6311 44.69% 55.31%

Howard Arkansas 1956 2743 41.63% 58.37%

Independence Arkansas 4595 7508 37.97% 62.03%

Izard Arkansas 2222 2852 43.79% 56.21%

Jackson Arkansas 2964 2767 51.72% 48.28%

Jefferson Arkansas 18616 10071 64.89% 35.11%

Johnson Arkansas 3286 4432 42.58% 57.42%

Lafayette Arkansas 1427 1625 46.76% 53.24%

Lawrence Arkansas 2854 3059 48.27% 51.73%

Lee Arkansas 2461 1444 63.02% 36.98%

Lincoln Arkansas 1911 2096 47.69% 52.31%

Little River Arkansas 2312 2809 45.15% 54.85%

Logan Arkansas 2862 5058 36.14% 63.86%

Lonoke Arkansas 6620 14732 31.00% 69.00%

Madison Arkansas 2216 3808 36.79% 63.21%

Marion Arkansas 2423 4142 36.91% 63.09%

Miller Arkansas 5604 8839 38.80% 61.20%

Mississippi Arkansas 7061 6292 52.88% 47.12%

Monroe Arkansas 1825 1604 53.22% 46.78%

Montgomery Arkansas 1312 2310 36.22% 63.78%

Nevada Arkansas 1633 1899 46.23% 53.77%

Newton Arkansas 1099 2251 32.81% 67.19%

Ouachita Arkansas 4987 5325 48.36% 51.64%

Page 19: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Perry Arkansas 1607 2501 39.12% 60.88%

Phillips Arkansas 5746 3130 64.74% 35.26%

Pike Arkansas 1276 2389 34.82% 65.18%

Poinsett Arkansas 3486 4027 46.40% 53.60%

Polk Arkansas 2208 5184 29.87% 70.13%

Pope Arkansas 6509 13941 31.83% 68.17%

Prairie Arkansas 1334 2078 39.10% 60.90%

Pulaski Arkansas 82752 66202 55.56% 44.44%

Randolph Arkansas 2902 3247 47.19% 52.81%

Saline Arkansas 13180 26190 33.48% 66.52%

Scott Arkansas 1280 2612 32.89% 67.11%

Searcy Arkansas 1157 2647 30.42% 69.58%

Sebastian Arkansas 14991 26943 35.75% 64.25%

Sevier Arkansas 1701 2664 38.97% 61.03%

Sharp Arkansas 2890 4203 40.74% 59.26%

St. Francis Arkansas 5390 3768 58.86% 41.14%

Stone Arkansas 1986 3339 37.30% 62.70%

Union Arkansas 6494 10159 39.00% 61.00%

Van Buren Arkansas 2768 4001 40.89% 59.11%

Washington Arkansas 26833 35033 43.37% 56.63%

White Arkansas 7878 17229 31.38% 68.62%

Woodruff Arkansas 1662 1075 60.72% 39.28%

Yell Arkansas 2541 3633 41.16% 58.84%

Alameda California 383691 111642 77.46% 22.54%

Alpine California 371 278 57.16% 42.84%

Amador California 6747 10014 40.25% 59.75%

Butte California 39546 45108 46.71% 53.29%

Calaveras California 8100 11769 40.77% 59.23%

Colusa California 2017 3642 35.64% 64.36%

Contra Costa California 250542 132821 65.35% 34.65%

Del Norte California 3710 4760 43.80% 56.20%

El Dorado California 31245 44975 40.99% 59.01%

Fresno California 102142 119744 46.03% 53.97%

Glenn California 3195 6001 34.74% 65.26%

Humboldt California 31877 21155 60.11% 39.89%

Imperial California 17337 12902 57.33% 42.67%

Inyo California 3132 4448 41.32% 58.68%

Kern California 71397 120844 37.14% 62.86%

Kings California 12371 19164 39.23% 60.77%

Lake California 12089 9201 56.78% 43.22%

Page 20: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Lassen California 3309 7608 30.31% 69.69%

Los Angeles California 1877688 919843 67.12% 32.88%

Madera California 13748 21798 38.68% 61.32%

Marin California 92285 30088 75.41% 24.59%

Mariposa California 3383 4958 40.56% 59.44%

Mendocino California 18919 9826 65.82% 34.18%

Merced California 25726 27389 48.43% 51.57%

Modoc California 1176 3063 27.74% 72.26%

Mono California 2530 2343 51.92% 48.08%

Monterey California 67590 37813 64.13% 35.87%

Napa California 30004 18272 62.15% 37.85%

Nevada California 22238 24662 47.42% 52.58%

Orange California 419701 542732 43.61% 56.39%

Placer California 56606 83157 40.50% 59.50%

Plumas California 4240 6393 39.88% 60.12%

Riverside California 215021 246822 46.56% 53.44%

Sacramento California 238875 198620 54.60% 45.40%

San Benito California 7953 6043 56.82% 43.18%

San Bernardino California 229354 240840 48.78% 51.22%

San Diego California 521619 509815 50.57% 49.43%

San Francisco California 265219 47708 84.75% 15.25%

San Joaquin California 87110 84861 50.65% 49.35%

San Luis Obispo California 57546 60878 48.59% 51.41%

San Mateo California 176957 70549 71.50% 28.50%

Santa Barbara California 88941 68644 56.44% 43.56%

Santa Clara California 374266 182145 67.26% 32.74%

Santa Cruz California 79391 25619 75.60% 24.40%

Shasta California 23395 45470 33.97% 66.03%

Sierra California 666 1191 35.86% 64.14%

Siskiyou California 7398 11063 40.07% 59.93%

Solano California 78098 50348 60.80% 39.20%

Sonoma California 139663 57823 70.72% 29.28%

Stanislaus California 65534 76300 46.20% 53.80%

Sutter California 8342 15249 35.36% 64.64%

Tehama California 6991 13076 34.84% 65.16%

Trinity California 2778 3220 46.32% 53.68%

Tulare California 32686 53695 37.84% 62.16%

Tuolumne California 10478 14709 41.60% 58.40%

Ventura California 138316 129590 51.63% 48.37%

Yolo California 42461 24008 63.88% 36.12%

Page 21: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Yuba California 6287 10482 37.49% 62.51%

Adams Colorado 75120 60238 55.50% 44.50%

Alamosa Colorado 3116 2866 52.09% 47.91%

Arapahoe Colorado 112164 106177 51.37% 48.63%

Archuleta Colorado 2286 3472 39.70% 60.30%

Baca Colorado 515 1626 24.05% 75.95%

Bent Colorado 791 1168 40.38% 59.62%

Boulder Colorado 102002 47009 68.45% 31.55%

Chaffee Colorado 4016 4728 45.93% 54.07%

Cheyenne Colorado 200 916 17.92% 82.08%

Clear Creek Colorado 2947 2352 55.61% 44.39%

Conejos Colorado 1956 1733 53.02% 46.98%

Costilla Colorado 1174 483 70.85% 29.15%

Crowley Colorado 518 959 35.07% 64.93%

Custer Colorado 765 1616 32.13% 67.87%

Delta Colorado 4359 9503 31.45% 68.55%

Denver Colorado 169532 63673 72.70% 27.30%

Dolores Colorado 334 783 29.90% 70.10%

Douglas Colorado 42265 71874 37.03% 62.97%

Eagle Colorado 10555 8042 56.76% 43.24%

El Paso Colorado 86136 151592 36.23% 63.77%

Elbert Colorado 3139 8177 27.74% 72.26%

Fremont Colorado 6177 11905 34.16% 65.84%

Garfield Colorado 9250 10589 46.63% 53.37%

Gilpin Colorado 1711 1222 58.34% 41.66%

Grand Colorado 3354 4030 45.42% 54.58%

Gunnison Colorado 4724 3238 59.33% 40.67%

Hinsdale Colorado 227 341 39.96% 60.04%

Huerfano Colorado 1771 1596 52.60% 47.40%

Jackson Colorado 232 666 25.84% 74.16%

Jefferson Colorado 133522 131041 50.47% 49.53%

Kiowa Colorado 181 679 21.05% 78.95%

Kit Carson Colorado 822 2547 24.40% 75.60%

La Plata Colorado 13071 11086 54.11% 45.89%

Lake Colorado 1650 1133 59.29% 40.71%

Larimer Colorado 70528 69804 50.26% 49.74%

Las Animas Colorado 3369 2984 53.03% 46.97%

Lincoln Colorado 522 1717 23.31% 76.69%

Logan Colorado 2601 5946 30.43% 69.57%

Mesa Colorado 20389 40454 33.51% 66.49%

Page 22: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Mineral Colorado 233 341 40.59% 59.41%

Moffat Colorado 1419 4092 25.75% 74.25%

Montezuma Colorado 3910 6770 36.61% 63.39%

Montrose Colorado 5208 10921 32.29% 67.71%

Morgan Colorado 3326 6299 34.56% 65.44%

Otero Colorado 3248 4478 42.04% 57.96%

Ouray Colorado 1307 1356 49.08% 50.92%

Park Colorado 3545 4560 43.74% 56.26%

Phillips Colorado 580 1595 26.67% 73.33%

Pitkin Colorado 6258 2586 70.76% 29.24%

Prowers Colorado 1389 3148 30.61% 69.39%

Pueblo Colorado 35131 28122 55.54% 44.46%

Rio Blanco Colorado 600 2364 20.24% 79.76%

Rio Grande Colorado 2127 3137 40.41% 59.59%

Routt Colorado 6680 4786 58.26% 41.74%

Saguache Colorado 1506 1033 59.31% 40.69%

San Juan Colorado 235 216 52.11% 47.89%

San Miguel Colorado 2800 1005 73.59% 26.41%

Sedgwick Colorado 418 899 31.74% 68.26%

Summit Colorado 8204 4943 62.40% 37.60%

Teller Colorado 3739 7666 32.78% 67.22%

Washington Colorado 488 1961 19.93% 80.07%

Weld Colorado 36561 51694 41.43% 58.57%

Yuma Colorado 1086 3292 24.81% 75.19%

Fairfield Connecticut 218947 172835 55.88% 44.12%

Hartford Connecticut 245027 141617 63.37% 36.63%

Litchfield Connecticut 46856 45948 50.49% 49.51%

Middlesex Connecticut 48931 32886 59.81% 40.19%

New Haven Connecticut 213813 144985 59.59% 40.41%

New London Connecticut 68674 47330 59.20% 40.80%

Tolland Connecticut 40491 28910 58.34% 41.66%

Windham Connecticut 29001 20581 58.49% 41.51%

Kent Delaware 29193 29132 50.05% 49.95%

New Castle Delaware 156496 81643 65.72% 34.28%

Sussex Delaware 34552 44667 43.62% 56.38%

Washington DC District of Columbia 199374 17689 91.85% 8.15%

Alachua Florida 63868 44406 58.99% 41.01%

Baker Florida 2292 7680 22.98% 77.02%

Bay Florida 21707 51552 29.63% 70.37%

Bradford Florida 3289 7338 30.95% 69.05%

Page 23: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Brevard Florida 115023 146591 43.97% 56.03%

Broward Florida 454188 225407 66.83% 33.17%

Calhoun Florida 1994 3830 34.24% 65.76%

Charlotte Florida 35343 42762 45.25% 54.75%

Citrus Florida 29401 39196 42.86% 57.14%

Clay Florida 21421 59714 26.40% 73.60%

Collier Florida 44710 78219 36.37% 63.63%

Columbia Florida 8319 16320 33.76% 66.24%

Dade Florida 427968 340920 55.66% 44.34%

De Soto Florida 3988 5287 43.00% 57.00%

Dixie Florida 1913 4383 30.38% 69.62%

Duval Florida 162289 194908 45.43% 54.57%

Escambia Florida 52397 87816 37.37% 62.63%

Flagler Florida 20251 19984 50.33% 49.67%

Franklin Florida 2198 3391 39.33% 60.67%

Gadsden Florida 13958 6169 69.35% 30.65%

Gilchrist Florida 1983 4892 28.84% 71.16%

Glades Florida 1637 2349 41.07% 58.93%

Gulf Florida 2288 4601 33.21% 66.79%

Hamilton Florida 2185 2821 43.65% 56.35%

Hardee Florida 2375 4634 33.89% 66.11%

Hendry Florida 4261 5542 43.47% 56.53%

Hernando Florida 28086 32233 46.56% 53.44%

Highlands Florida 16226 24629 39.72% 60.28%

Hillsborough Florida 206652 215148 48.99% 51.01%

Holmes Florida 1728 6372 21.33% 78.67%

Indian River Florida 25518 36442 41.18% 58.82%

Jackson Florida 7437 12158 37.95% 62.05%

Jefferson Florida 3868 3336 53.69% 46.31%

Lafayette Florida 741 2381 23.73% 76.27%

Lake Florida 52072 72582 41.77% 58.23%

Lee Florida 100026 136370 42.31% 57.69%

Leon Florida 82215 50564 61.92% 38.08%

Levy Florida 6205 10218 37.78% 62.22%

Liberty Florida 979 1974 33.15% 66.85%

Madison Florida 3918 4092 48.91% 51.09%

Manatee Florida 61486 74684 45.15% 54.85%

Marion Florida 60472 79338 43.25% 56.75%

Martin Florida 30862 40941 42.98% 57.02%

Monroe Florida 19490 18461 51.36% 48.64%

Page 24: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Nassau Florida 9104 23719 27.74% 72.26%

Okaloosa Florida 21619 65131 24.92% 75.08%

Okeechobee Florida 5005 6806 42.38% 57.62%

Orange Florida 216444 176777 55.04% 44.96%

Osceola Florida 45400 37753 54.60% 45.40%

Palm Beach Florida 321742 198738 61.82% 38.18%

Pasco Florida 89141 98501 47.51% 52.49%

Pinellas Florida 228186 208266 52.28% 47.72%

Polk Florida 95850 118437 44.73% 55.27%

Putnam Florida 12695 17799 41.63% 58.37%

Santa Rosa Florida 16354 50247 24.56% 75.44%

Sarasota Florida 91191 98990 47.95% 52.05%

Seminole Florida 82881 99515 45.44% 54.56%

St. Johns Florida 28947 59102 32.88% 67.12%

St. Lucie Florida 56216 46831 54.55% 45.45%

Sumter Florida 13845 23010 37.57% 62.43%

Suwannee Florida 4445 10685 29.38% 70.62%

Taylor Florida 2844 5589 33.72% 66.28%

Union Florida 1307 3398 27.78% 72.22%

Volusia Florida 116787 106152 52.39% 47.61%

Wakulla Florida 4842 7203 40.20% 59.80%

Walton Florida 6506 17238 27.40% 72.60%

Washington Florida 2863 7195 28.46% 71.54%

Appling Georgia 1902 4634 29.10% 70.90%

Atkinson Georgia 866 1691 33.87% 66.13%

Bacon Georgia 886 2771 24.23% 75.77%

Baker Georgia 886 778 53.25% 46.75%

Baldwin Georgia 7384 7389 49.98% 50.02%

Banks Georgia 1111 4457 19.95% 80.05%

Barrow Georgia 5136 14101 26.70% 73.30%

Bartow Georgia 8543 22253 27.74% 72.26%

Ben Hill Georgia 2374 3158 42.91% 57.09%

Berrien Georgia 1563 4083 27.68% 72.32%

Bibb Georgia 32596 26710 54.96% 45.04%

Bleckley Georgia 1323 3222 29.11% 70.89%

Brantley Georgia 1222 4395 21.76% 78.24%

Brooks Georgia 2383 3064 43.75% 56.25%

Bryan Georgia 2959 7575 28.09% 71.91%

Bulloch Georgia 7776 12381 38.58% 61.42%

Burke Georgia 4557 4093 52.68% 47.32%

Page 25: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Butts Georgia 2726 5059 35.02% 64.98%

Calhoun Georgia 1215 850 58.84% 41.16%

Camden Georgia 5235 9246 36.15% 63.85%

Candler Georgia 1137 2064 35.52% 64.48%

Carroll Georgia 11724 24645 32.24% 67.76%

Catoosa Georgia 5829 16240 26.41% 73.59%

Charlton Georgia 1110 2256 32.98% 67.02%

Chatham Georgia 51454 44385 53.69% 46.31%

Chattahoochee Georgia 760 793 48.94% 51.06%

Chattooga Georgia 2694 4946 35.26% 64.74%

Cherokee Georgia 17607 59100 22.95% 77.05%

Clarke Georgia 23727 14455 62.14% 37.86%

Clay Georgia 839 517 61.87% 38.13%

Clayton Georgia 64281 19475 76.75% 23.25%

Clinch Georgia 871 1489 36.91% 63.09%

Cobb Georgia 116676 165024 41.42% 58.58%

Coffee Georgia 4263 7991 34.79% 65.21%

Colquitt Georgia 3698 8312 30.79% 69.21%

Columbia Georgia 12786 35251 26.62% 73.38%

Cook Georgia 1864 3209 36.74% 63.26%

Coweta Georgia 12460 31998 28.03% 71.97%

Crawford Georgia 1667 2876 36.69% 63.31%

Crisp Georgia 2658 3984 40.02% 59.98%

Dade Georgia 1684 4285 28.21% 71.79%

Dawson Georgia 1518 6815 18.22% 81.78%

De Kalb Georgia 214417 66759 76.26% 23.74%

Decatur Georgia 3914 5331 42.34% 57.66%

Dodge Georgia 2465 4763 34.10% 65.90%

Dooly Georgia 2030 1855 52.25% 47.75%

Dougherty Georgia 21917 12869 63.01% 36.99%

Douglas Georgia 20179 24730 44.93% 55.07%

Early Georgia 2084 2466 45.80% 54.20%

Echols Georgia 227 825 21.58% 78.42%

Effingham Georgia 4116 12565 24.67% 75.33%

Elbert Georgia 3052 4430 40.79% 59.21%

Emanuel Georgia 2918 4569 38.97% 61.03%

Evans Georgia 1285 2267 36.18% 63.82%

Fannin Georgia 2677 6971 27.75% 72.25%

Fayette Georgia 16637 36080 31.56% 68.44%

Floyd Georgia 10382 21013 33.07% 66.93%

Page 26: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Forsyth Georgia 11402 48223 19.12% 80.88%

Franklin Georgia 2051 5243 28.12% 71.88%

Fulton Georgia 220194 125579 63.68% 36.32%

Gilmer Georgia 2494 7306 25.45% 74.55%

Glascock Georgia 232 1042 18.21% 81.79%

Glynn Georgia 10350 18492 35.89% 64.11%

Gordon Georgia 4136 11484 26.48% 73.52%

Grady Georgia 3208 5121 38.52% 61.48%

Greene Georgia 2884 4033 41.69% 58.31%

Gwinnett Georgia 97929 150872 39.36% 60.64%

Habersham Georgia 2768 10255 21.25% 78.75%

Hall Georgia 12210 38909 23.89% 76.11%

Hancock Georgia 3013 774 79.56% 20.44%

Haralson Georgia 2448 7561 24.46% 75.54%

Harris Georgia 3638 8925 28.96% 71.04%

Hart Georgia 3365 5681 37.20% 62.80%

Heard Georgia 1108 2754 28.69% 71.31%

Henry Georgia 27704 40930 40.36% 59.64%

Houston Georgia 17793 29945 37.27% 62.73%

Irwin Georgia 1128 2322 32.70% 67.30%

Jackson Georgia 4116 13855 22.90% 77.10%

Jasper Georgia 1726 3303 34.32% 65.68%

Jeff Davis Georgia 1332 3514 27.49% 72.51%

Jefferson Georgia 3654 2951 55.32% 44.68%

Jenkins Georgia 1434 1786 44.53% 55.47%

Johnson Georgia 1190 2237 34.72% 65.28%

Jones Georgia 4006 6849 36.90% 63.10%

Lamar Georgia 2518 4154 37.74% 62.26%

Lanier Georgia 967 1574 38.06% 61.94%

Laurens Georgia 6819 10791 38.72% 61.28%

Lee Georgia 2535 8449 23.08% 76.92%

Liberty Georgia 8050 5624 58.87% 41.13%

Lincoln Georgia 1462 2385 38.00% 62.00%

Long Georgia 1133 1900 37.36% 62.64%

Lowndes Georgia 14267 18912 43.00% 57.00%

Lumpkin Georgia 2318 6914 25.11% 74.89%

Macon Georgia 3026 1726 63.68% 36.32%

Madison Georgia 2664 7302 26.73% 73.27%

Marion Georgia 1257 1608 43.87% 56.13%

McDuffie Georgia 3313 4888 40.40% 59.60%

Page 27: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

McIntosh Georgia 2587 2797 48.05% 51.95%

Meriwether Georgia 3985 4384 47.62% 52.38%

Miller Georgia 779 1708 31.32% 68.68%

Mitchell Georgia 3501 3782 48.07% 51.93%

Monroe Georgia 3528 6713 34.45% 65.55%

Montgomery Georgia 1025 2163 32.15% 67.85%

Morgan Georgia 2639 5078 34.20% 65.80%

Murray Georgia 2908 7448 28.08% 71.92%

Muscogee Georgia 36847 28642 56.26% 43.74%

Newton Georgia 14392 17543 45.07% 54.93%

Oconee Georgia 4115 10503 28.15% 71.85%

Oglethorpe Georgia 1963 3672 34.84% 65.16%

Paulding Georgia 12296 31451 28.11% 71.89%

Peach Georgia 4741 4600 50.75% 49.25%

Pickens Georgia 2521 8371 23.15% 76.85%

Pierce Georgia 1257 4748 20.93% 79.07%

Pike Georgia 1516 5385 21.97% 78.03%

Polk Georgia 4004 8498 32.03% 67.97%

Pulaski Georgia 1352 2296 37.06% 62.94%

Putnam Georgia 2919 5180 36.04% 63.96%

Quitman Georgia 567 440 56.31% 43.69%

Rabun Georgia 1831 4521 28.83% 71.17%

Randolph Georgia 1659 1342 55.28% 44.72%

Richmond Georgia 43224 27514 61.10% 38.90%

Rockdale Georgia 14965 17210 46.51% 53.49%

Schley Georgia 470 1068 30.56% 69.44%

Screven Georgia 2685 3188 45.72% 54.28%

Seminole Georgia 1454 2029 41.75% 58.25%

Spalding Georgia 8290 13163 38.64% 61.36%

Stephens Georgia 2744 6912 28.42% 71.58%

Stewart Georgia 1268 764 62.40% 37.60%

Sumter Georgia 5773 5512 51.16% 48.84%

Talbot Georgia 2031 1133 64.19% 35.81%

Taliaferro Georgia 613 323 65.49% 34.51%

Tattnall Georgia 1891 4454 29.80% 70.20%

Taylor Georgia 1465 1848 44.22% 55.78%

Telfair Georgia 1752 2205 44.28% 55.72%

Terrell Georgia 2114 1794 54.09% 45.91%

Thomas Georgia 6511 9526 40.60% 59.40%

Tift Georgia 4187 8549 32.88% 67.12%

Page 28: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Toombs Georgia 2760 6022 31.43% 68.57%

Towns Georgia 1427 3827 27.16% 72.84%

Treutlen Georgia 1040 1611 39.23% 60.77%

Troup Georgia 8600 14049 37.97% 62.03%

Turner Georgia 1272 1816 41.19% 58.81%

Twiggs Georgia 2247 1980 53.16% 46.84%

Union Georgia 2376 6856 25.74% 74.26%

Upson Georgia 3643 6563 35.69% 64.31%

Walker Georgia 6113 15453 28.35% 71.65%

Walton Georgia 6945 22192 23.84% 76.16%

Ware Georgia 3716 7646 32.71% 67.29%

Warren Georgia 1409 1064 56.98% 43.02%

Washington Georgia 4064 3937 50.79% 49.21%

Wayne Georgia 2773 6811 28.93% 71.07%

Webster Georgia 521 503 50.88% 49.12%

Wheeler Georgia 802 1204 39.98% 60.02%

White Georgia 2086 7310 22.20% 77.80%

Whitfield Georgia 7504 18502 28.85% 71.15%

Wilcox Georgia 949 1835 34.09% 65.91%

Wilkes Georgia 2136 2486 46.21% 53.79%

Wilkinson Georgia 2185 2198 49.85% 50.15%

Worth Georgia 2361 5112 31.59% 68.41%

Hawaii Hawaii 40658 17740 69.62% 30.38%

Honolulu Hawaii 176960 109699 61.73% 38.27%

Kauai Hawaii 17036 7484 69.48% 30.52%

Maui Hawaii 32475 13880 70.06% 29.94%

Ada Idaho 64996 89504 42.07% 57.93%

Adams Idaho 583 1491 28.11% 71.89%

Bannock Idaho 13296 19812 40.16% 59.84%

Bear Lake Idaho 503 2402 17.31% 82.69%

Benewah Idaho 1207 2696 30.92% 69.08%

Bingham Idaho 3903 12042 24.48% 75.52%

Blaine Idaho 5918 3657 61.81% 38.19%

Boise Idaho 1040 2364 30.55% 69.45%

Bonner Idaho 6660 10507 38.80% 61.20%

Bonneville Idaho 9467 28606 24.87% 75.13%

Boundary Idaho 1267 2994 29.73% 70.27%

Butte Idaho 327 1063 23.53% 76.47%

Camas Idaho 155 417 27.10% 72.90%

Canyon Idaho 15779 39658 28.46% 71.54%

Page 29: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Caribou Idaho 515 2676 16.14% 83.86%

Cassia Idaho 1218 6321 16.16% 83.84%

Clark Idaho 58 305 15.98% 84.02%

Clearwater Idaho 1097 2729 28.67% 71.33%

Custer Idaho 554 1743 24.12% 75.88%

Elmore Idaho 2213 5608 28.30% 71.70%

Franklin Idaho 532 4188 11.27% 88.73%

Fremont Idaho 876 4687 15.75% 84.25%

Gem Idaho 1804 5260 25.54% 74.46%

Gooding Idaho 1371 3775 26.64% 73.36%

Idaho Idaho 1687 5916 22.19% 77.81%

Jefferson Idaho 1335 7801 14.61% 85.39%

Jerome Idaho 1548 4884 24.07% 75.93%

Kootenai Idaho 18690 35377 34.57% 65.43%

Latah Idaho 8153 8257 49.68% 50.32%

Lemhi Idaho 805 2967 21.34% 78.66%

Lewis Idaho 434 1307 24.93% 75.07%

Lincoln Idaho 495 1243 28.48% 71.52%

Madison Idaho 1179 10271 10.30% 89.70%

Minidoka Idaho 1465 5283 21.71% 78.29%

Nez Perce Idaho 6434 10623 37.72% 62.28%

Oneida Idaho 339 1679 16.80% 83.20%

Owyhee Idaho 786 2841 21.67% 78.33%

Payette Idaho 2054 5849 25.99% 74.01%

Power Idaho 901 1897 32.20% 67.80%

Shoshone Idaho 2392 2926 44.98% 55.02%

Teton Idaho 1655 2139 43.62% 56.38%

Twin Falls Idaho 7268 18526 28.18% 71.82%

Valley Idaho 1929 2743 41.29% 58.71%

Washington Idaho 1114 3144 26.16% 73.84%

Adams Illinois 11414 19059 37.46% 62.54%

Alexander Illinois 2169 1715 55.84% 44.16%

Bond Illinois 3459 3952 46.67% 53.33%

Boone Illinois 9235 10246 47.41% 52.59%

Brown Illinois 975 1584 38.10% 61.90%

Bureau Illinois 8320 8681 48.94% 51.06%

Calhoun Illinois 1378 1255 52.34% 47.66%

Carroll Illinois 3629 3959 47.83% 52.17%

Cass Illinois 2646 2877 47.91% 52.09%

Champaign Illinois 43223 35997 54.56% 45.44%

Page 30: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Christian Illinois 6620 8187 44.71% 55.29%

Clark Illinois 3271 4630 41.40% 58.60%

Clay Illinois 2269 4058 35.86% 64.14%

Clinton Illinois 7097 9469 42.84% 57.16%

Coles Illinois 10369 11543 47.32% 52.68%

Cook Illinois 1468018 529939 73.48% 26.52%

Crawford Illinois 3528 5385 39.58% 60.42%

Cumberland Illinois 1948 3227 37.64% 62.36%

De Kalb Illinois 21161 18956 52.75% 47.25%

De Witt Illinois 3049 4453 40.64% 59.36%

Douglas Illinois 3071 5175 37.24% 62.76%

Du Page Illinois 195006 198913 49.50% 50.50%

Edgar Illinois 3407 4779 41.62% 58.38%

Edwards Illinois 1034 2245 31.53% 68.47%

Effingham Illinois 4738 11143 29.83% 70.17%

Fayette Illinois 3815 5557 40.71% 59.29%

Ford Illinois 2091 4179 33.35% 66.65%

Franklin Illinois 9149 9523 49.00% 51.00%

Fulton Illinois 9334 6922 57.42% 42.58%

Gallatin Illinois 1647 1431 53.51% 46.49%

Greene Illinois 2535 3236 43.93% 56.07%

Grundy Illinois 8551 9732 46.77% 53.23%

Hamilton Illinois 1834 2490 42.41% 57.59%

Hancock Illinois 3939 5210 43.05% 56.95%

Hardin Illinois 967 1395 40.94% 59.06%

Henderson Illinois 2191 1683 56.56% 43.44%

Henry Illinois 12465 11824 51.32% 48.68%

Iroquois Illinois 4317 9095 32.19% 67.81%

Jackson Illinois 14138 10208 58.07% 41.93%

Jasper Illinois 1914 3186 37.53% 62.47%

Jefferson Illinois 7039 9375 42.88% 57.12%

Jersey Illinois 4738 5220 47.58% 52.42%

Jo Daviess Illinois 5630 5531 50.44% 49.56%

Johnson Illinois 1689 3457 32.82% 67.18%

Kane Illinois 84896 85231 49.90% 50.10%

Kankakee Illinois 21916 22705 49.12% 50.88%

Kendall Illinois 16499 18823 46.71% 53.29%

Knox Illinois 13557 10082 57.35% 42.65%

La Salle Illinois 25462 23142 52.39% 47.61%

Lake Illinois 119708 111151 51.85% 48.15%

Page 31: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Lawrence Illinois 2806 3698 43.14% 56.86%

Lee Illinois 6944 8559 44.79% 55.21%

Livingston Illinois 5921 9560 38.25% 61.75%

Logan Illinois 4778 8146 36.97% 63.03%

Macon Illinois 24469 25735 48.74% 51.26%

Macoupin Illinois 11544 10361 52.70% 47.30%

Madison Illinois 64855 56003 53.66% 46.34%

Marion Illinois 8062 8830 47.73% 52.27%

Marshall Illinois 2874 3340 46.25% 53.75%

Mason Illinois 3354 3455 49.26% 50.74%

Massac Illinois 2779 4286 39.33% 60.67%

McDonough Illinois 6737 6676 50.23% 49.77%

McHenry Illinois 57810 67982 45.96% 54.04%

McLean Illinois 32190 37608 46.12% 53.88%

Menard Illinois 2395 3960 37.69% 62.31%

Mercer Illinois 4653 3990 53.84% 46.16%

Monroe Illinois 7081 9239 43.39% 56.61%

Montgomery Illinois 6329 6397 49.73% 50.27%

Morgan Illinois 6509 8292 43.98% 56.02%

Moultrie Illinois 2542 3563 41.64% 58.36%

Ogle Illinois 9710 13548 41.75% 58.25%

Peoria Illinois 42017 36447 53.55% 46.45%

Perry Illinois 4758 5187 47.84% 52.16%

Piatt Illinois 3530 5041 41.19% 58.81%

Pike Illinois 3003 4701 38.98% 61.02%

Pope Illinois 886 1394 38.86% 61.14%

Pulaski Illinois 1522 1599 48.77% 51.23%

Putnam Illinois 1781 1472 54.75% 45.25%

Randolph Illinois 7050 7625 48.04% 51.96%

Richland Illinois 2809 4686 37.48% 62.52%

Rock Island Illinois 40473 26748 60.21% 39.79%

Saline Illinois 5030 6380 44.08% 55.92%

Sangamon Illinois 44158 50654 46.57% 53.43%

Schuyler Illinois 1727 2076 45.41% 54.59%

Scott Illinois 1005 1535 39.57% 60.43%

Shelby Illinois 4024 6391 38.64% 61.36%

St. Clair Illinois 67860 47025 59.07% 40.93%

Stark Illinois 1269 1663 43.28% 56.72%

Stephenson Illinois 9656 10757 47.30% 52.70%

Tazewell Illinois 27282 33784 44.68% 55.32%

Page 32: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Union Illinois 3870 4977 43.74% 56.26%

Vermilion Illinois 15545 16883 47.94% 52.06%

Wabash Illinois 2120 3606 37.02% 62.98%

Warren Illinois 4001 3974 50.17% 49.83%

Washington Illinois 3065 4644 39.76% 60.24%

Wayne Illinois 2335 5614 29.37% 70.63%

White Illinois 3154 4502 41.20% 58.80%

Whiteside Illinois 14365 11650 55.22% 44.78%

Will Illinois 128009 117782 52.08% 47.92%

Williamson Illinois 12335 16854 42.26% 57.74%

Winnebago Illinois 62533 56134 52.70% 47.30%

Woodford Illinois 6328 12050 34.43% 65.57%

Adams Indiana 4200 8880 32.11% 67.89%

Allen Indiana 56415 77507 42.13% 57.87%

Bartholomew Indiana 11091 17547 38.73% 61.27%

Benton Indiana 1368 2444 35.89% 64.11%

Blackford Indiana 2291 2944 43.76% 56.24%

Boone Indiana 7268 15995 31.24% 68.76%

Brown Indiana 3202 4169 43.44% 56.56%

Carroll Indiana 3214 5243 38.00% 62.00%

Cass Indiana 5750 8934 39.16% 60.84%

Clark Indiana 19482 23724 45.09% 54.91%

Clay Indiana 4114 6658 38.19% 61.81%

Clinton Indiana 4279 7484 36.38% 63.62%

Crawford Indiana 2064 2450 45.72% 54.28%

Daviess Indiana 2954 7326 28.74% 71.26%

De Kalb Indiana 5851 9766 37.47% 62.53%

Dearborn Indiana 6702 13905 32.52% 67.48%

Decatur Indiana 3245 6722 32.56% 67.44%

Delaware Indiana 24054 23224 50.88% 49.12%

Dubois Indiana 6756 10394 39.39% 60.61%

Elkhart Indiana 23540 39977 37.06% 62.94%

Fayette Indiana 3917 5230 42.82% 57.18%

Floyd Indiana 14776 19153 43.55% 56.45%

Fountain Indiana 2805 4578 37.99% 62.01%

Franklin Indiana 3064 6686 31.43% 68.57%

Fulton Indiana 3171 5455 36.76% 63.24%

Gibson Indiana 5951 8518 41.13% 58.87%

Grant Indiana 10013 16391 37.92% 62.08%

Greene Indiana 5161 7943 39.38% 60.62%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Hamilton Indiana 34881 73330 32.23% 67.77%

Hancock Indiana 9024 20240 30.84% 69.16%

Harrison Indiana 6593 10287 39.06% 60.94%

Hendricks Indiana 17755 36767 32.56% 67.44%

Henry Indiana 8562 11514 42.65% 57.35%

Howard Indiana 15112 21404 41.38% 58.62%

Huntington Indiana 4804 10693 31.00% 69.00%

Jackson Indiana 6191 10085 38.04% 61.96%

Jasper Indiana 4300 7696 35.85% 64.15%

Jay Indiana 3282 4806 40.58% 59.42%

Jefferson Indiana 5623 7185 43.90% 56.10%

Jennings Indiana 4324 6343 40.54% 59.46%

Johnson Indiana 15341 30683 33.33% 66.67%

Knox Indiana 6647 9055 42.33% 57.67%

Kosciusko Indiana 7380 20714 26.27% 73.73%

La Porte Indiana 23978 19153 55.59% 44.41%

Lagrange Indiana 3075 5884 34.32% 65.68%

Lake Indiana 124089 68017 64.59% 35.41%

Lawrence Indiana 6112 11339 35.02% 64.98%

Madison Indiana 25896 28789 47.35% 52.65%

Marion Indiana 189358 141075 57.31% 42.69%

Marshall Indiana 6598 10929 37.64% 62.36%

Martin Indiana 1603 3190 33.44% 66.56%

Miami Indiana 4689 8758 34.87% 65.13%

Monroe Indiana 31252 21236 59.54% 40.46%

Montgomery Indiana 4714 9634 32.85% 67.15%

Morgan Indiana 8185 17843 31.45% 68.55%

Newton Indiana 2310 3441 40.17% 59.83%

Noble Indiana 5778 9941 36.76% 63.24%

Ohio Indiana 1106 1696 39.47% 60.53%

Orange Indiana 3046 4952 38.08% 61.92%

Owen Indiana 2933 4522 39.34% 60.66%

Parke Indiana 2633 4104 39.08% 60.92%

Perry Indiana 4511 3571 55.82% 44.18%

Pike Indiana 2585 3472 42.68% 57.32%

Porter Indiana 33103 33542 49.67% 50.33%

Posey Indiana 4933 7075 41.08% 58.92%

Pulaski Indiana 2106 3540 37.30% 62.70%

Putnam Indiana 5098 8196 38.35% 61.65%

Randolph Indiana 4289 6300 40.50% 59.50%

Page 34: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Ripley Indiana 3808 7758 32.92% 67.08%

Rush Indiana 2628 4741 35.66% 64.34%

Scott Indiana 4041 4408 47.83% 52.17%

Shelby Indiana 5804 10521 35.55% 64.45%

Spencer Indiana 4379 5332 45.09% 54.91%

St. Joseph Indiana 58683 50552 53.72% 46.28%

Starke Indiana 4372 4570 48.89% 51.11%

Steuben Indiana 5153 7765 39.89% 60.11%

Sullivan Indiana 3869 4555 45.93% 54.07%

Switzerland Indiana 1518 1989 43.28% 56.72%

Tippecanoe Indiana 27748 29340 48.61% 51.39%

Tipton Indiana 2710 4918 35.53% 64.47%

Union Indiana 1097 2078 34.55% 65.45%

Vanderburgh Indiana 33580 38431 46.63% 53.37%

Vermillion Indiana 3669 3209 53.34% 46.66%

Vigo Indiana 21168 19050 52.63% 47.37%

Wabash Indiana 4682 8713 34.95% 65.05%

Warren Indiana 1558 2310 40.28% 59.72%

Warrick Indiana 10417 15695 39.89% 60.11%

Washington Indiana 4137 6503 38.88% 61.12%

Wayne Indiana 11856 15171 43.87% 56.13%

Wells Indiana 3732 8558 30.37% 69.63%

White Indiana 4055 6213 39.49% 60.51%

Whitley Indiana 4811 9020 34.78% 65.22%

Adair Iowa 1858 2221 45.55% 54.45%

Adams Iowa 1020 1161 46.77% 53.23%

Allamakee Iowa 3551 3221 52.44% 47.56%

Appanoose Iowa 2907 3148 48.01% 51.99%

Audubon Iowa 1701 1802 48.56% 51.44%

Benton Iowa 6690 6293 51.53% 48.47%

Black Hawk Iowa 35628 25438 58.34% 41.66%

Boone Iowa 6995 6324 52.52% 47.48%

Bremer Iowa 6210 6018 50.79% 49.21%

Buchanan Iowa 5674 4344 56.64% 43.36%

Buena Vista Iowa 3713 4471 45.37% 54.63%

Butler Iowa 3096 3963 43.86% 56.14%

Calhoun Iowa 2259 2923 43.59% 56.41%

Carroll Iowa 4903 5185 48.60% 51.40%

Cass Iowa 2867 4307 39.96% 60.04%

Cedar Iowa 4790 4420 52.01% 47.99%

Page 35: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Cerro Gordo Iowa 13523 9894 57.75% 42.25%

Cherokee Iowa 2910 3518 45.27% 54.73%

Chickasaw Iowa 3731 2793 57.19% 42.81%

Clarke Iowa 2221 2113 51.25% 48.75%

Clay Iowa 3651 4451 45.06% 54.94%

Clayton Iowa 4820 3952 54.95% 45.05%

Clinton Iowa 13880 9636 59.02% 40.98%

Crawford Iowa 3347 3576 48.35% 51.65%

Dallas Iowa 12253 14864 45.19% 54.81%

Davis Iowa 1958 2285 46.15% 53.85%

Decatur Iowa 1873 2016 48.16% 51.84%

Delaware Iowa 4313 4411 49.44% 50.56%

Des Moines Iowa 12184 7798 60.97% 39.03%

Dickinson Iowa 4242 5007 45.86% 54.14%

Dubuque Iowa 24392 17778 57.84% 42.16%

Emmet Iowa 2423 2469 49.53% 50.47%

Fayette Iowa 5377 4630 53.73% 46.27%

Floyd Iowa 4433 3310 57.25% 42.75%

Franklin Iowa 2392 2742 46.59% 53.41%

Fremont Iowa 1934 2451 44.10% 55.90%

Greene Iowa 2379 2420 49.57% 50.43%

Grundy Iowa 2504 4081 38.03% 61.97%

Guthrie Iowa 2582 3084 45.57% 54.43%

Hamilton Iowa 3833 4075 48.47% 51.53%

Hancock Iowa 2575 3124 45.18% 54.82%

Hardin Iowa 4109 4533 47.55% 52.45%

Harrison Iowa 3113 4141 42.91% 57.09%

Henry Iowa 4602 5216 46.87% 53.13%

Howard Iowa 2714 1868 59.23% 40.77%

Humboldt Iowa 2104 2967 41.49% 58.51%

Ida Iowa 1432 2118 40.34% 59.66%

Iowa Iowa 3853 4235 47.64% 52.36%

Jackson Iowa 5682 3879 59.43% 40.57%

Jasper Iowa 9941 8983 52.53% 47.47%

Jefferson Iowa 4368 3414 56.13% 43.87%

Johnson Iowa 43413 20722 67.69% 32.31%

Jones Iowa 5141 4500 53.32% 46.68%

Keokuk Iowa 2364 2812 45.67% 54.33%

Kossuth Iowa 4306 4621 48.24% 51.76%

Lee Iowa 9733 6888 58.56% 41.44%

Page 36: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Linn Iowa 61003 44744 57.69% 42.31%

Louisa Iowa 2395 2374 50.22% 49.78%

Lucas Iowa 1992 2385 45.51% 54.49%

Lyon Iowa 1470 4437 24.89% 75.11%

Madison Iowa 3459 4338 44.36% 55.64%

Mahaska Iowa 3990 6390 38.44% 61.56%

Marion Iowa 6760 9290 42.12% 57.88%

Marshall Iowa 9405 8795 51.68% 48.32%

Mills Iowa 2542 4194 37.74% 62.26%

Mitchell Iowa 2928 2508 53.86% 46.14%

Monona Iowa 2278 2440 48.28% 51.72%

Monroe Iowa 1793 1989 47.41% 52.59%

Montgomery Iowa 2072 3239 39.01% 60.99%

Muscatine Iowa 9794 8184 54.48% 45.52%

O'Brien Iowa 2296 4985 31.53% 68.47%

Osceola Iowa 975 2125 31.45% 68.55%

Page Iowa 2532 4698 35.02% 64.98%

Palo Alto Iowa 2420 2429 49.91% 50.09%

Plymouth Iowa 4232 7420 36.32% 63.68%

Pocahontas Iowa 1790 2259 44.21% 55.79%

Polk Iowa 108151 89252 54.79% 45.21%

Pottawattamie Iowa 17897 21765 45.12% 54.88%

Poweshiek Iowa 5037 4557 52.50% 47.50%

Ringgold Iowa 1255 1416 46.99% 53.01%

Sac Iowa 2199 2859 43.48% 56.52%

Scott Iowa 43642 36715 54.31% 45.69%

Shelby Iowa 2535 3774 40.18% 59.82%

Sioux Iowa 2568 13437 16.04% 83.96%

Story Iowa 23324 18907 55.23% 44.77%

Tama Iowa 4554 4076 52.77% 47.23%

Taylor Iowa 1292 1741 42.60% 57.40%

Union Iowa 2809 2955 48.73% 51.27%

Van Buren Iowa 1527 2065 42.51% 57.49%

Wapello Iowa 8668 6744 56.24% 43.76%

Warren Iowa 11142 11574 49.05% 50.95%

Washington Iowa 4690 5389 46.53% 53.47%

Wayne Iowa 1351 1643 45.12% 54.88%

Webster Iowa 9448 8491 52.67% 47.33%

Winnebago Iowa 2939 2861 50.67% 49.33%

Winneshiek Iowa 5775 4701 55.13% 44.87%

Page 37: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Woodbury Iowa 20101 20919 49.00% 51.00%

Worth Iowa 2390 1683 58.68% 41.32%

Wright Iowa 2970 3379 46.78% 53.22%

Allen Kansas 2061 3587 36.49% 63.51%

Anderson Kansas 1243 2309 34.99% 65.01%

Atchison Kansas 3148 3696 46.00% 54.00%

Barber Kansas 598 1781 25.14% 74.86%

Barton Kansas 2996 7905 27.48% 72.52%

Bourbon Kansas 2271 4162 35.30% 64.70%

Brown Kansas 1329 2994 30.74% 69.26%

Butler Kansas 7974 17010 31.92% 68.08%

Chase Kansas 391 955 29.05% 70.95%

Chautauqua Kansas 404 1429 22.04% 77.96%

Cherokee Kansas 3579 5697 38.58% 61.42%

Cheyenne Kansas 328 1252 20.76% 79.24%

Clark Kansas 258 930 21.72% 78.28%

Clay Kansas 912 3022 23.18% 76.82%

Cloud Kansas 1234 3087 28.56% 71.44%

Coffey Kansas 1121 3023 27.05% 72.95%

Comanche Kansas 200 762 20.79% 79.21%

Cowley Kansas 4996 8604 36.74% 63.26%

Crawford Kansas 7510 7779 49.12% 50.88%

Decatur Kansas 364 1259 22.43% 77.57%

Dickinson Kansas 2370 5913 28.61% 71.39%

Doniphan Kansas 1086 2391 31.23% 68.77%

Douglas Kansas 28329 18406 60.62% 39.38%

Edwards Kansas 373 1032 26.55% 73.45%

Elk Kansas 372 1073 25.74% 74.26%

Ellis Kansas 3958 7650 34.10% 65.90%

Ellsworth Kansas 823 2050 28.65% 71.35%

Finney Kansas 2741 6936 28.32% 71.68%

Ford Kansas 2598 6038 30.08% 69.92%

Franklin Kansas 3985 6878 36.68% 63.32%

Geary Kansas 2932 4396 40.01% 59.99%

Gove Kansas 262 1146 18.61% 81.39%

Graham Kansas 332 1059 23.87% 76.13%

Grant Kansas 613 2058 22.95% 77.05%

Gray Kansas 428 1672 20.38% 79.62%

Greeley Kansas 144 595 19.49% 80.51%

Greenwood Kansas 939 2220 29.72% 70.28%

Page 38: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Hamilton Kansas 239 868 21.59% 78.41%

Harper Kansas 764 2050 27.15% 72.85%

Harvey Kansas 5546 8956 38.24% 61.76%

Haskell Kansas 252 1286 16.38% 83.62%

Hodgeman Kansas 212 875 19.50% 80.50%

Jackson Kansas 2137 3586 37.34% 62.66%

Jefferson Kansas 3284 5034 39.48% 60.52%

Jewell Kansas 351 1356 20.56% 79.44%

Johnson Kansas 105378 148167 41.56% 58.44%

Kearny Kansas 296 1139 20.63% 79.37%

Kingman Kansas 930 2624 26.17% 73.83%

Kiowa Kansas 238 1107 17.70% 82.30%

Labette Kansas 3718 4997 42.66% 57.34%

Lane Kansas 199 812 19.68% 80.32%

Leavenworth Kansas 11509 15396 42.78% 57.22%

Lincoln Kansas 383 1266 23.23% 76.77%

Linn Kansas 1519 2921 34.21% 65.79%

Logan Kansas 233 1181 16.48% 83.52%

Lyon Kansas 5414 7003 43.60% 56.40%

Marion Kansas 1554 4071 27.63% 72.37%

Marshall Kansas 1794 3168 36.15% 63.85%

McPherson Kansas 3751 8968 29.49% 70.51%

Meade Kansas 372 1618 18.69% 81.31%

Miami Kansas 5133 8575 37.45% 62.55%

Mitchell Kansas 705 2461 22.27% 77.73%

Montgomery Kansas 4374 9150 32.34% 67.66%

Morris Kansas 905 1835 33.03% 66.97%

Morton Kansas 263 1198 18.00% 82.00%

Nemaha Kansas 1408 3809 26.99% 73.01%

Neosho Kansas 2492 4403 36.14% 63.86%

Ness Kansas 338 1317 20.42% 79.58%

Norton Kansas 507 1901 21.05% 78.95%

Osage Kansas 2523 4557 35.64% 64.36%

Osborne Kansas 433 1488 22.54% 77.46%

Ottawa Kansas 651 2241 22.51% 77.49%

Pawnee Kansas 859 1990 30.15% 69.85%

Phillips Kansas 551 2127 20.58% 79.42%

Pottawatomie Kansas 2312 6246 27.02% 72.98%

Pratt Kansas 1254 2910 30.12% 69.88%

Rawlins Kansas 284 1324 17.66% 82.34%

Page 39: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Reno Kansas 9360 16337 36.42% 63.58%

Republic Kansas 615 2110 22.57% 77.43%

Rice Kansas 1198 2926 29.05% 70.95%

Riley Kansas 8470 11808 41.77% 58.23%

Rooks Kansas 518 2068 20.03% 79.97%

Rush Kansas 506 1224 29.25% 70.75%

Russell Kansas 786 2529 23.71% 76.29%

Saline Kansas 7682 13908 35.58% 64.42%

Scott Kansas 347 1838 15.88% 84.12%

Sedgwick Kansas 70704 103896 40.49% 59.51%

Seward Kansas 1236 3893 24.10% 75.90%

Shawnee Kansas 37635 40842 47.96% 52.04%

Sheridan Kansas 254 1108 18.65% 81.35%

Sherman Kansas 663 1976 25.12% 74.88%

Smith Kansas 493 1695 22.53% 77.47%

Stafford Kansas 532 1552 25.53% 74.47%

Stanton Kansas 186 718 20.58% 79.42%

Stevens Kansas 303 1813 14.32% 85.68%

Sumner Kansas 3329 6686 33.24% 66.76%

Thomas Kansas 790 2857 21.66% 78.34%

Trego Kansas 444 1219 26.70% 73.30%

Wabaunsee Kansas 1015 2384 29.86% 70.14%

Wallace Kansas 103 718 12.55% 87.45%

Washington Kansas 651 2351 21.69% 78.31%

Wichita Kansas 179 852 17.36% 82.64%

Wilson Kansas 1158 2999 27.86% 72.14%

Woodson Kansas 518 1082 32.38% 67.63%

Wyandotte Kansas 35947 16294 68.81% 31.19%

Adair Kentucky 1725 5539 23.75% 76.25%

Allen Kentucky 1973 5052 28.09% 71.91%

Anderson Kentucky 3230 6271 34.00% 66.00%

Ballard Kentucky 1638 2329 41.29% 58.71%

Barren Kentucky 5249 10498 33.33% 66.67%

Bath Kentucky 2315 2261 50.59% 49.41%

Bell Kentucky 3704 6451 36.47% 63.53%

Boone Kentucky 13426 30696 30.43% 69.57%

Bourbon Kentucky 3248 4656 41.09% 58.91%

Boyd Kentucky 9447 10969 46.27% 53.73%

Boyle Kentucky 4547 7370 38.16% 61.84%

Bracken Kentucky 1153 2165 34.75% 65.25%

Page 40: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Breathitt Kentucky 2734 2498 52.26% 47.74%

Breckinridge Kentucky 2920 5266 35.67% 64.33%

Bullitt Kentucky 9305 18426 33.55% 66.45%

Butler Kentucky 1458 3824 27.60% 72.40%

Caldwell Kentucky 2225 3776 37.08% 62.92%

Calloway Kentucky 5902 8806 40.13% 59.87%

Campbell Kentucky 14368 23820 37.62% 62.38%

Carlisle Kentucky 1013 1645 38.11% 61.89%

Carroll Kentucky 1681 2032 45.27% 54.73%

Carter Kentucky 4705 5167 47.66% 52.34%

Casey Kentucky 1182 4735 19.98% 80.02%

Christian Kentucky 7775 13131 37.19% 62.81%

Clark Kentucky 5535 9097 37.83% 62.17%

Clay Kentucky 1706 5541 23.54% 76.46%

Clinton Kentucky 885 3335 20.97% 79.03%

Crittenden Kentucky 1394 2615 34.77% 65.23%

Cumberland Kentucky 756 2192 25.64% 74.36%

Daviess Kentucky 16972 23734 41.69% 58.31%

Edmonson Kentucky 1733 3504 33.09% 66.91%

Elliott Kentucky 1709 875 66.14% 33.86%

Estill Kentucky 1680 3523 32.29% 67.71%

Fayette Kentucky 59189 60860 49.30% 50.70%

Fleming Kentucky 2218 3504 38.76% 61.24%

Floyd Kentucky 9299 6771 57.87% 42.13%

Franklin Kentucky 11515 11656 49.70% 50.30%

Fulton Kentucky 1320 1476 47.21% 52.79%

Gallatin Kentucky 1197 1740 40.76% 59.24%

Garrard Kentucky 1889 4768 28.38% 71.62%

Grant Kentucky 2893 5456 34.65% 65.35%

Graves Kentucky 6020 9515 38.75% 61.25%

Grayson Kentucky 2949 6624 30.81% 69.19%

Green Kentucky 1214 3774 24.34% 75.66%

Greenup Kentucky 7078 8439 45.61% 54.39%

Hancock Kentucky 1854 2070 47.25% 52.75%

Hardin Kentucky 13257 23044 36.52% 63.48%

Harlan Kentucky 3786 6511 36.77% 63.23%

Harrison Kentucky 2822 4470 38.70% 61.30%

Hart Kentucky 2330 4205 35.65% 64.35%

Henderson Kentucky 8956 9432 48.71% 51.29%

Henry Kentucky 2470 3899 38.78% 61.22%

Page 41: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Hickman Kentucky 878 1346 39.48% 60.52%

Hopkins Kentucky 6794 11510 37.12% 62.88%

Jackson Kentucky 742 4321 14.66% 85.34%

Jefferson Kentucky 177302 155497 53.28% 46.72%

Jessamine Kentucky 5626 12656 30.77% 69.23%

Johnson Kentucky 2888 5686 33.68% 66.32%

Kenton Kentucky 23625 40508 36.84% 63.16%

Knott Kentucky 3689 2698 57.76% 42.24%

Knox Kentucky 3460 7671 31.08% 68.92%

Larue Kentucky 1842 3968 31.70% 68.30%

Laurel Kentucky 4886 16307 23.05% 76.95%

Lawrence Kentucky 2308 3468 39.96% 60.04%

Lee Kentucky 813 1972 29.19% 70.81%

Leslie Kentucky 1031 3511 22.70% 77.30%

Letcher Kentucky 3607 4895 42.43% 57.57%

Lewis Kentucky 1514 3402 30.80% 69.20%

Lincoln Kentucky 2750 5852 31.97% 68.03%

Livingston Kentucky 1839 2647 40.99% 59.01%

Logan Kentucky 3813 6537 36.84% 63.16%

Lyon Kentucky 1664 2072 44.54% 55.46%

Madison Kentucky 11418 18101 38.68% 61.32%

Magoffin Kentucky 2462 2646 48.20% 51.80%

Marion Kentucky 3349 3733 47.29% 52.71%

Marshall Kentucky 6032 8865 40.49% 59.51%

Martin Kentucky 1241 2846 30.36% 69.64%

Mason Kentucky 2650 4077 39.39% 60.61%

McCracken Kentucky 11339 17813 38.90% 61.10%

McCreary Kentucky 1384 3924 26.07% 73.93%

McLean Kentucky 1868 2415 43.61% 56.39%

Meade Kentucky 3971 6540 37.78% 62.22%

Menifee Kentucky 1226 1178 51.00% 49.00%

Mercer Kentucky 3166 6454 32.91% 67.09%

Metcalfe Kentucky 1384 2647 34.33% 65.67%

Monroe Kentucky 1118 4097 21.44% 78.56%

Montgomery Kentucky 4236 5533 43.36% 56.64%

Morgan Kentucky 2086 2460 45.89% 54.11%

Muhlenberg Kentucky 6376 6341 50.14% 49.86%

Nelson Kentucky 6794 9607 41.42% 58.58%

Nicholas Kentucky 1230 1651 42.69% 57.31%

Ohio Kentucky 3746 5833 39.11% 60.89%

Page 42: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Oldham Kentucky 8522 17726 32.47% 67.53%

Owen Kentucky 1601 2921 35.40% 64.60%

Owsley Kentucky 388 1414 21.53% 78.47%

Pendleton Kentucky 1919 3659 34.40% 65.60%

Perry Kentucky 4556 6245 42.18% 57.82%

Pike Kentucky 11925 12274 49.28% 50.72%

Powell Kentucky 2114 2658 44.30% 55.70%

Pulaski Kentucky 5631 18860 22.99% 77.01%

Robertson Kentucky 414 600 40.83% 59.17%

Rockcastle Kentucky 1328 4603 22.39% 77.61%

Rowan Kentucky 4108 3879 51.43% 48.57%

Russell Kentucky 1668 5742 22.51% 77.49%

Scott Kentucky 6752 10537 39.05% 60.95%

Shelby Kentucky 5798 10519 35.53% 64.47%

Simpson Kentucky 2717 4101 39.85% 60.15%

Spencer Kentucky 2122 4696 31.12% 68.88%

Taylor Kentucky 3020 7147 29.70% 70.30%

Todd Kentucky 1515 3151 32.47% 67.53%

Trigg Kentucky 2149 3898 35.54% 64.46%

Trimble Kentucky 1398 2181 39.06% 60.94%

Union Kentucky 2612 3176 45.13% 54.87%

Warren Kentucky 15329 24400 38.58% 61.42%

Washington Kentucky 1739 3305 34.48% 65.52%

Wayne Kentucky 2364 4743 33.26% 66.74%

Webster Kentucky 2361 2996 44.07% 55.93%

Whitley Kentucky 3788 9305 28.93% 71.07%

Wolfe Kentucky 1497 1369 52.23% 47.77%

Woodford Kentucky 4615 6790 40.46% 59.54%

Acadia Louisiana 8079 16977 32.24% 67.76%

Allen Louisiana 3418 5425 38.65% 61.35%

Ascension Louisiana 14126 25842 35.34% 64.66%

Assumption Louisiana 5136 5289 49.27% 50.73%

Avoyelles Louisiana 6626 8945 42.55% 57.45%

Beauregard Louisiana 3466 9667 26.39% 73.61%

Bienville Louisiana 3487 3609 49.14% 50.86%

Bossier Louisiana 12402 29710 29.45% 70.55%

Caddo Louisiana 52351 51657 50.33% 49.67%

Calcasieu Louisiana 31934 46244 40.85% 59.15%

Caldwell Louisiana 1260 3371 27.21% 72.79%

Cameron Louisiana 1047 3012 25.79% 74.21%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Catahoula Louisiana 1677 3269 33.91% 66.09%

Claiborne Louisiana 2900 3653 44.25% 55.75%

Concordia Louisiana 3616 5356 40.30% 59.70%

De Soto Louisiana 5124 6298 44.86% 55.14%

East Baton Rouge Louisiana 88726 95516 48.16% 51.84%

East Carroll Louisiana 2084 1294 61.69% 38.31%

East Feliciana Louisiana 4172 4988 45.55% 54.45%

Evangeline Louisiana 5801 8622 40.22% 59.78%

Franklin Louisiana 2878 6029 32.31% 67.69%

Grant Louisiana 1781 6103 22.59% 77.41%

Iberia Louisiana 12308 19249 39.00% 61.00%

Iberville Louisiana 8620 6543 56.85% 43.15%

Jackson Louisiana 2507 4952 33.61% 66.39%

Jefferson Louisiana 68624 112935 37.80% 62.20%

Jefferson Davis Louisiana 4472 8352 34.87% 65.13%

La Salle Louisiana 1078 5176 17.24% 82.76%

Lafayette Louisiana 30732 57600 34.79% 65.21%

LaFourche Louisiana 12350 23745 34.22% 65.78%

Lincoln Louisiana 7611 10397 42.26% 57.74%

Livingston Louisiana 8714 36087 19.45% 80.55%

Madison Louisiana 2709 2193 55.26% 44.74%

Morehouse Louisiana 5528 7192 43.46% 56.54%

Natchitoches Louisiana 7472 8740 46.09% 53.91%

Orleans Louisiana 133029 35501 78.93% 21.07%

Ouachita Louisiana 23135 40270 36.49% 63.51%

Plaquemines Louisiana 3879 7086 35.38% 64.62%

Pointe Coupee Louisiana 5647 5835 49.18% 50.82%

Rapides Louisiana 19446 34176 36.26% 63.74%

Red River Louisiana 2122 2429 46.63% 53.37%

Richland Louisiana 3228 5467 37.12% 62.88%

Sabine Louisiana 2545 6727 27.45% 72.55%

St. Bernard Louisiana 7466 14430 34.10% 65.90%

St. Charles Louisiana 8721 14892 36.93% 63.07%

St. Helena Louisiana 3323 2303 59.07% 40.93%

St. James Louisiana 6694 4777 58.36% 41.64%

St. John the Baptist Louisiana 11122 8623 56.33% 43.67%

St. Landry Louisiana 19078 19160 49.89% 50.11%

St. Martin Louisiana 9816 12664 43.67% 56.33%

St. Mary Louisiana 9525 12668 42.92% 57.08%

St. Tammany Louisiana 24199 75110 24.37% 75.63%

Page 44: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Tangipahoa Louisiana 15941 27236 36.92% 63.08%

Tensas Louisiana 1572 1387 53.13% 46.87%

Terrebonne Louisiana 12911 26059 33.13% 66.87%

Union Louisiana 3121 7155 30.37% 69.63%

Vermilion Louisiana 7747 15830 32.86% 67.14%

Vernon Louisiana 3950 10941 26.53% 73.47%

Washington Louisiana 6550 11094 37.12% 62.88%

Webster Louisiana 6815 10858 38.56% 61.44%

West Baton Rouge Louisiana 5009 5992 45.53% 54.47%

West Carroll Louisiana 1094 3760 22.54% 77.46%

West Feliciana Louisiana 2297 3594 38.99% 61.01%

Winn Louisiana 2077 4409 32.02% 67.98%

Androscoggin Maine 29617 22649 56.67% 43.33%

Aroostook Maine 18829 16527 53.26% 46.74%

Cumberland Maine 90555 57150 61.31% 38.69%

Franklin Maine 9017 6592 57.77% 42.23%

Hancock Maine 17273 13249 56.59% 43.41%

Kennebec Maine 33126 25559 56.45% 43.55%

Knox Maine 12041 9004 57.22% 42.78%

Lincoln Maine 10388 9254 52.89% 47.11%

Oxford Maine 15917 12636 55.75% 44.25%

Penobscot Maine 39735 37853 51.21% 48.79%

Piscataquis Maine 4271 4970 46.22% 53.78%

Sagadahoc Maine 9046 7298 55.35% 44.65%

Somerset Maine 12645 11516 52.34% 47.66%

Waldo Maine 9855 9013 52.23% 47.77%

Washington Maine 7961 8240 49.14% 50.86%

York Maine 56349 42978 56.73% 43.27%

Allegany Maryland 10582 17611 37.53% 62.47%

Anne Arundel Maryland 108326 123898 46.65% 53.35%

Baltimore Maryland 188691 154023 55.06% 44.94%

Baltimore City Maryland 185421 30488 85.88% 14.12%

Calvert Maryland 17076 21366 44.42% 55.58%

Caroline Maryland 4183 7146 36.92% 63.08%

Carroll Maryland 24426 51638 32.11% 67.89%

Cecil Maryland 15362 21421 41.76% 58.24%

Charles Maryland 33468 25410 56.84% 43.16%

Dorchester Maryland 5952 7451 44.41% 55.59%

Frederick Maryland 43141 53928 44.44% 55.56%

Garrett Maryland 3348 8587 28.05% 71.95%

Page 45: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Harford Maryland 42177 66814 38.70% 61.30%

Howard Maryland 74527 54946 57.56% 42.44%

Kent Maryland 4392 4717 48.22% 51.78%

Montgomery Maryland 278055 124239 69.12% 30.88%

Prince Georges Maryland 278473 46494 85.69% 14.31%

Queen Annes Maryland 7458 13608 35.40% 64.60%

Somerset Maryland 4252 4606 48.00% 52.00%

St. Marys Maryland 15418 93532 14.15% 85.85%

Talbot Maryland 7571 10462 41.98% 58.02%

Washington Maryland 22161 33352 39.92% 60.08%

Wicomico Maryland 16571 20401 44.82% 55.18%

Worcester Maryland 10250 14313 41.73% 58.27%

Barnstable Massachusetts 70578 55248 56.09% 43.91%

Berkshire Massachusetts 46192 15678 74.66% 25.34%

Bristol Massachusetts 144606 81600 63.93% 36.07%

Dukes Massachusetts 7146 2465 74.35% 25.65%

Essex Massachusetts 196922 130331 60.17% 39.83%

Franklin Massachusetts 24468 10094 70.79% 29.21%

Hampden Massachusetts 113489 68397 62.40% 37.60%

Hampshire Massachusetts 51057 20514 71.34% 28.66%

Middlesex Massachusetts 440397 232459 65.45% 34.55%

Nantucket Massachusetts 3645 1869 66.10% 33.90%

Norfolk Massachusetts 197156 127072 60.81% 39.19%

Plymouth Massachusetts 125790 103671 54.82% 45.18%

Suffolk Massachusetts 185127 52691 77.84% 22.16%

Worcester Massachusetts 192098 140836 57.70% 42.30%

Alcona Michigan 2843 3411 45.46% 54.54%

Alger Michigan 2357 2221 51.49% 48.51%

Allegan Michigan 20351 30729 39.84% 60.16%

Alpena Michigan 7461 7226 50.80% 49.20%

Antrim Michigan 5354 7636 41.22% 58.78%

Arenac Michigan 4024 3809 51.37% 48.63%

Baraga Michigan 1631 1887 46.36% 53.64%

Barry Michigan 11919 17008 41.20% 58.80%

Bay Michigan 31112 23980 56.47% 43.53%

Benzie Michigan 4676 4772 49.49% 50.51%

Berrien Michigan 35150 37680 48.26% 51.74%

Branch Michigan 7560 9775 43.61% 56.39%

Calhoun Michigan 31389 29224 51.79% 48.21%

Cass Michigan 10505 11603 47.52% 52.48%

Page 46: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Charlevoix Michigan 6041 7545 44.46% 55.54%

Cheboygan Michigan 6186 7189 46.25% 53.75%

Chippewa Michigan 7447 8379 47.06% 52.94%

Clare Michigan 7057 6701 51.29% 48.71%

Clinton Michigan 17027 20108 45.85% 54.15%

Crawford Michigan 3191 3664 46.55% 53.45%

Delta Michigan 9332 9093 50.65% 49.35%

Dickinson Michigan 5777 7251 44.34% 55.66%

Eaton Michigan 27289 26949 50.31% 49.69%

Emmet Michigan 7278 9496 43.39% 56.61%

Genesee Michigan 133372 74964 64.02% 35.98%

Gladwin Michigan 6282 6373 49.64% 50.36%

Gogebic Michigan 4491 3665 55.06% 44.94%

Grand Traverse Michigan 19614 25101 43.86% 56.14%

Gratiot Michigan 7957 8825 47.41% 52.59%

Hillsdale Michigan 7713 11585 39.97% 60.03%

Houghton Michigan 6829 8317 45.09% 54.91%

Huron Michigan 7795 8952 46.55% 53.45%

Ingham Michigan 83543 49711 62.69% 37.31%

Ionia Michigan 12237 15677 43.84% 56.16%

Iosco Michigan 6879 6769 50.40% 49.60%

Iron Michigan 3110 3044 50.54% 49.46%

Isabella Michigan 13797 11139 55.33% 44.67%

Jackson Michigan 33257 36332 47.79% 52.21%

Kalamazoo Michigan 63959 51288 55.50% 44.50%

Kalkaska Michigan 3359 4560 42.42% 57.58%

Kent Michigan 126781 156003 44.83% 55.17%

Keweenaw Michigan 601 761 44.13% 55.87%

Lake Michigan 2763 2279 54.80% 45.20%

Lapeer Michigan 19065 23188 45.12% 54.88%

Leelanau Michigan 6314 7181 46.79% 53.21%

Lenawee Michigan 21960 23031 48.81% 51.19%

Livingston Michigan 36546 54242 40.25% 59.75%

Luce Michigan 1090 1574 40.92% 59.08%

Mackinac Michigan 2848 3415 45.47% 54.53%

Macomb Michigan 203194 187290 52.04% 47.96%

Manistee Michigan 6559 5746 53.30% 46.70%

Marquette Michigan 17974 13426 57.24% 42.76%

Mason Michigan 6825 7454 47.80% 52.20%

Mecosta Michigan 8021 9135 46.75% 53.25%

Page 47: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Menominee Michigan 5455 5367 50.41% 49.59%

Midland Michigan 18883 22891 45.20% 54.80%

Missaukee Michigan 2519 4621 35.28% 64.72%

Monroe Michigan 36455 34855 51.12% 48.88%

Montcalm Michigan 11833 13718 46.31% 53.69%

Montmorency Michigan 2275 2974 43.34% 56.66%

Muskegon Michigan 46908 31265 60.01% 39.99%

Newaygo Michigan 9520 12341 43.55% 56.45%

Oakland Michigan 334593 289562 53.61% 46.39%

Oceana Michigan 5682 6144 48.05% 51.95%

Ogemaw Michigan 5222 5145 50.37% 49.63%

Ontonagon Michigan 1831 2114 46.41% 53.59%

Osceola Michigan 4534 6113 42.58% 57.42%

Oscoda Michigan 1809 2378 43.21% 56.79%

Otsego Michigan 4958 6848 42.00% 58.00%

Ottawa Michigan 41506 85871 32.59% 67.41%

Presque Isle Michigan 3517 3743 48.44% 51.56%

Roscommon Michigan 6847 6820 50.10% 49.90%

Saginaw Michigan 56372 43630 56.37% 43.63%

Sanilac Michigan 8238 11393 41.96% 58.04%

Schoolcraft Michigan 2135 2134 50.01% 49.99%

Shiawassee Michigan 17083 16674 50.61% 49.39%

St. Clair Michigan 37470 38842 49.10% 50.90%

St. Joseph Michigan 10593 13704 43.60% 56.40%

Tuscola Michigan 12622 14172 47.11% 52.89%

Van Buren Michigan 16711 16070 50.98% 49.02%

Washtenaw Michigan 113927 56117 67.00% 33.00%

Wayne Michigan 609576 231868 72.44% 27.56%

Wexford Michigan 6465 8167 44.18% 55.82%

Aitkin Minnesota 4406 4463 49.68% 50.32%

Anoka Minnesota 80511 86611 48.17% 51.83%

Becker Minnesota 6836 9010 43.14% 56.86%

Beltrami Minnesota 10495 9606 52.21% 47.79%

Benton Minnesota 7778 9645 44.64% 55.36%

Big Stone Minnesota 1520 1404 51.98% 48.02%

Blue Earth Minnesota 16950 14691 53.57% 46.43%

Brown Minnesota 5334 7749 40.77% 59.23%

Carlton Minnesota 10848 6364 63.03% 36.97%

Carver Minnesota 17434 26638 39.56% 60.44%

Cass Minnesota 6742 8393 44.55% 55.45%

Page 48: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Chippewa Minnesota 3254 2983 52.17% 47.83%

Chisago Minnesota 11886 14682 44.74% 55.26%

Clay Minnesota 13987 12715 52.38% 47.62%

Clearwater Minnesota 1784 2306 43.62% 56.38%

Cook Minnesota 1735 1335 56.51% 43.49%

Cottonwood Minnesota 2691 3337 44.64% 55.36%

Crow Wing Minnesota 14218 17961 44.18% 55.82%

Dakota Minnesota 105768 102093 50.88% 49.12%

Dodge Minnesota 4105 5231 43.97% 56.03%

Douglas Minnesota 8265 11107 42.66% 57.34%

Faribault Minnesota 3721 4427 45.67% 54.33%

Fillmore Minnesota 5689 5150 52.49% 47.51%

Freeborn Minnesota 9543 7172 57.09% 42.91%

Goodhue Minnesota 11772 12467 48.57% 51.43%

Grant Minnesota 1776 1763 50.18% 49.82%

Hennepin Minnesota 383395 237882 61.71% 38.29%

Houston Minnesota 5384 5113 51.29% 48.71%

Hubbard Minnesota 4553 6242 42.18% 57.82%

Isanti Minnesota 7682 10467 42.33% 57.67%

Itasca Minnesota 12764 10271 55.41% 44.59%

Jackson Minnesota 2573 2894 47.06% 52.94%

Kanabec Minnesota 3490 4273 44.96% 55.04%

Kandiyohi Minnesota 9438 11160 45.82% 54.18%

Kittson Minnesota 1353 1188 53.25% 46.75%

Koochiching Minnesota 3488 3279 51.54% 48.46%

Lac Qui Parle Minnesota 2255 1979 53.26% 46.74%

Lake Minnesota 4054 2642 60.54% 39.46%

Lake of the Woods Minnesota 927 1314 41.37% 58.63%

Le Sueur Minnesota 6455 7340 46.79% 53.21%

Lincoln Minnesota 1547 1578 49.50% 50.50%

Lyon Minnesota 5532 6560 45.75% 54.25%

Mahnomen Minnesota 1289 1001 56.29% 43.71%

Marshall Minnesota 2221 2725 44.90% 55.10%

Martin Minnesota 4417 6057 42.17% 57.83%

McLeod Minnesota 6819 10640 39.06% 60.94%

Meeker Minnesota 5133 6506 44.10% 55.90%

Mille Lacs Minnesota 5564 6692 45.40% 54.60%

Morrison Minnesota 6346 9380 40.35% 59.65%

Mower Minnesota 11645 7202 61.79% 38.21%

Murray Minnesota 2247 2472 47.62% 52.38%

Page 49: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Nicollet Minnesota 8891 8042 52.51% 47.49%

Nobles Minnesota 4021 4720 46.00% 54.00%

Norman Minnesota 1948 1535 55.93% 44.07%

Olmsted Minnesota 34038 35356 49.05% 50.95%

Otter Tail Minnesota 12358 18382 40.20% 59.80%

Pennington Minnesota 3094 3450 47.28% 52.72%

Pine Minnesota 6924 6695 50.84% 49.16%

Pipestone Minnesota 1969 2799 41.30% 58.70%

Polk Minnesota 7012 7776 47.42% 52.58%

Pope Minnesota 3190 3089 50.80% 49.20%

Ramsey Minnesota 169374 91377 64.96% 35.04%

Red Lake Minnesota 1003 1067 48.45% 51.55%

Redwood Minnesota 3075 4567 40.24% 59.76%

Renville Minnesota 3783 4132 47.80% 52.20%

Rice Minnesota 16120 13143 55.09% 44.91%

Rock Minnesota 2053 2885 41.58% 58.42%

Roseau Minnesota 2663 4800 35.68% 64.32%

Scott Minnesota 24857 33664 42.48% 57.52%

Sherburne Minnesota 15945 23749 40.17% 59.83%

Sibley Minnesota 2966 4461 39.94% 60.06%

St. Louis Minnesota 74631 38455 65.99% 34.01%

Stearns Minnesota 32260 39418 45.01% 54.99%

Steele Minnesota 8205 9765 45.66% 54.34%

Stevens Minnesota 2717 2844 48.86% 51.14%

Swift Minnesota 2947 2326 55.89% 44.11%

Todd Minnesota 4942 6605 42.80% 57.20%

Traverse Minnesota 1001 1012 49.73% 50.27%

Wabasha Minnesota 5364 5843 47.86% 52.14%

Wadena Minnesota 2711 4068 39.99% 60.01%

Waseca Minnesota 4170 5159 44.70% 55.30%

Washington Minnesota 62731 61955 50.31% 49.69%

Watonwan Minnesota 2478 2682 48.02% 51.98%

Wilkin Minnesota 1311 2013 39.44% 60.56%

Winona Minnesota 14451 11500 55.69% 44.31%

Wright Minnesota 22972 34152 40.21% 59.79%

Yellow Medicine Minnesota 2746 2683 50.58% 49.42%

Adams Mississippi 7991 6174 56.41% 43.59%

Alcorn Mississippi 4587 8824 34.20% 65.80%

Amite Mississippi 3074 4072 43.02% 56.98%

Attala Mississippi 3359 4921 40.57% 59.43%

Page 50: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Benton Mississippi 2156 2038 51.41% 48.59%

Bolivar Mississippi 9294 4916 65.40% 34.60%

Calhoun Mississippi 2241 3951 36.19% 63.81%

Carroll Mississippi 1918 3652 34.43% 65.57%

Chickasaw Mississippi 3943 3935 50.05% 49.95%

Choctaw Mississippi 1388 2597 34.83% 65.17%

Claiborne Mississippi 3852 794 82.91% 17.09%

Clarke Mississippi 2539 4770 34.74% 65.26%

Clay Mississippi 5443 4202 56.43% 43.57%

Coahoma Mississippi 6614 3158 67.68% 32.32%

Copiah Mississippi 6126 6349 49.11% 50.89%

Covington Mississippi 3336 5056 39.75% 60.25%

De Soto Mississippi 15220 36968 29.16% 70.84%

Forrest Mississippi 10461 15189 40.78% 59.22%

Franklin Mississippi 1620 2791 36.73% 63.27%

George Mississippi 1635 6351 20.47% 79.53%

Greene Mississippi 1372 3905 26.00% 74.00%

Grenada Mississippi 4538 5859 43.65% 56.35%

Hancock Mississippi 4189 11428 26.82% 73.18%

Harrison Mississippi 21801 37259 36.91% 63.09%

Hinds Mississippi 59254 33687 63.75% 36.25%

Holmes Mississippi 6419 1753 78.55% 21.45%

Humphreys Mississippi 2978 1474 66.89% 33.11%

Issaquena Mississippi 528 371 58.73% 41.27%

Itawamba Mississippi 2461 6701 26.86% 73.14%

Jackson Mississippi 15249 33042 31.58% 68.42%

Jasper Mississippi 4051 3644 52.64% 47.36%

Jefferson Mississippi 3024 543 84.78% 15.22%

Jefferson Davis Mississippi 3360 2547 56.88% 43.12%

Jones Mississippi 7775 18329 29.78% 70.22%

Kemper Mississippi 2613 1881 58.14% 41.86%

Lafayette Mississippi 6769 9143 42.54% 57.46%

Lamar Mississippi 4167 15855 20.81% 79.19%

Lauderdale Mississippi 11099 19034 36.83% 63.17%

Lawrence Mississippi 2518 4054 38.31% 61.69%

Leake Mississippi 3280 4572 41.77% 58.23%

Lee Mississippi 10638 20164 34.54% 65.46%

Leflore Mississippi 7476 4104 64.56% 35.44%

Lincoln Mississippi 4888 10025 32.78% 67.22%

Lowndes Mississippi 10971 13290 45.22% 54.78%

Page 51: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Madison Mississippi 14752 23346 38.72% 61.28%

Marion Mississippi 3883 7443 34.28% 65.72%

Marshall Mississippi 8837 5997 59.57% 40.43%

Monroe Mississippi 6536 9264 41.37% 58.63%

Montgomery Mississippi 2308 2758 45.56% 54.44%

Neshoba Mississippi 2585 7220 26.36% 73.64%

Newton Mississippi 2598 6103 29.86% 70.14%

Noxubee Mississippi 4409 1584 73.57% 26.43%

Oktibbeha Mississippi 7027 7987 46.80% 53.20%

Panola Mississippi 7232 6802 51.53% 48.47%

Pearl River Mississippi 4172 14718 22.09% 77.91%

Perry Mississippi 1382 3717 27.10% 72.90%

Pike Mississippi 7618 7852 49.24% 50.76%

Pontotoc Mississippi 2814 8585 24.69% 75.31%

Prentiss Mississippi 3182 6736 32.08% 67.92%

Quitman Mississippi 2388 1331 64.21% 35.79%

Rankin Mississippi 11784 42856 21.57% 78.43%

Scott Mississippi 4149 6134 40.35% 59.65%

Sharkey Mississippi 1664 960 63.41% 36.59%

Simpson Mississippi 3760 6729 35.85% 64.15%

Smith Mississippi 1668 5474 23.35% 76.65%

Stone Mississippi 1658 4276 27.94% 72.06%

Sunflower Mississippi 6408 3216 66.58% 33.42%

Tallahatchie Mississippi 3436 2534 57.55% 42.45%

Tate Mississippi 4414 6792 39.39% 60.61%

Tippah Mississippi 2769 6280 30.60% 69.40%

Tishomingo Mississippi 2422 5462 30.72% 69.28%

Tunica Mississippi 2352 877 72.84% 27.16%

Union Mississippi 2846 7678 27.04% 72.96%

Walthall Mississippi 2856 3955 41.93% 58.07%

Warren Mississippi 8628 10629 44.80% 55.20%

Washington Mississippi 11895 7003 62.94% 37.06%

Wayne Mississippi 3442 5576 38.17% 61.83%

Webster Mississippi 1351 3710 26.69% 73.31%

Wilkinson Mississippi 3053 1529 66.63% 33.37%

Winston Mississippi 4189 5260 44.33% 55.67%

Yalobusha Mississippi 2859 3243 46.85% 53.15%

Yazoo Mississippi 5326 4933 51.92% 48.08%

Adair Missouri 5106 6085 45.63% 54.37%

Andrew Missouri 3131 5004 38.49% 61.51%

Page 52: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Atchison Missouri 1005 1972 33.76% 66.24%

Audrain Missouri 4421 6006 42.40% 57.60%

Barry Missouri 4384 9289 32.06% 67.94%

Barton Missouri 1421 4339 24.67% 75.33%

Bates Missouri 3339 4759 41.23% 58.77%

Benton Missouri 3439 5354 39.11% 60.89%

Bollinger Missouri 1712 3907 30.47% 69.53%

Boone Missouri 39821 35274 53.03% 46.97%

Buchanan Missouri 18244 18747 49.32% 50.68%

Butler Missouri 5028 11170 31.04% 68.96%

Caldwell Missouri 1684 2536 39.91% 60.09%

Callaway Missouri 7045 10595 39.94% 60.06%

Camden Missouri 6958 12931 34.98% 65.02%

Cape Girardeau Missouri 11023 23353 32.07% 67.93%

Carroll Missouri 1565 3005 34.25% 65.75%

Carter Missouri 981 1800 35.28% 64.72%

Cass Missouri 17694 26750 39.81% 60.19%

Cedar Missouri 1992 4061 32.91% 67.09%

Chariton Missouri 1828 2357 43.68% 56.32%

Christian Missouri 10053 21940 31.42% 68.58%

Clark Missouri 1699 1847 47.91% 52.09%

Clay Missouri 47420 49938 48.71% 51.29%

Clinton Missouri 4295 5260 44.95% 55.05%

Cole Missouri 12798 23569 35.19% 64.81%

Cooper Missouri 2702 4770 36.16% 63.84%

Crawford Missouri 3693 5622 39.65% 60.35%

Dade Missouri 1159 2809 29.21% 70.79%

Dallas Missouri 2496 4599 35.18% 64.82%

Daviess Missouri 1393 2236 38.39% 61.61%

De Kalb Missouri 1668 2789 37.42% 62.58%

Dent Missouri 1944 4413 30.58% 69.42%

Douglas Missouri 1875 4257 30.58% 69.42%

Dunklin Missouri 4745 6572 41.93% 58.07%

Franklin Missouri 19224 25824 42.67% 57.33%

Gasconade Missouri 2575 4632 35.73% 64.27%

Gentry Missouri 1232 1961 38.58% 61.42%

Greene Missouri 49541 73509 40.26% 59.74%

Grundy Missouri 1570 3055 33.95% 66.05%

Harrison Missouri 1293 2593 33.27% 66.73%

Henry Missouri 4642 5966 43.76% 56.24%

Page 53: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Hickory Missouri 2082 2680 43.72% 56.28%

Holt Missouri 820 1804 31.25% 68.75%

Howard Missouri 1987 2703 42.37% 57.63%

Howell Missouri 5285 10580 33.31% 66.69%

Iron Missouri 2157 2252 48.92% 51.08%

Jackson Missouri 190176 121894 60.94% 39.06%

Jasper Missouri 13928 30208 31.56% 68.44%

Jefferson Missouri 47692 46286 50.75% 49.25%

Johnson Missouri 8346 11573 41.90% 58.10%

Knox Missouri 765 1213 38.68% 61.32%

Laclede Missouri 4653 10259 31.20% 68.80%

Lafayette Missouri 6610 9155 41.93% 58.07%

Lawrence Missouri 4708 10581 30.79% 69.21%

Lewis Missouri 1850 2638 41.22% 58.78%

Lincoln Missouri 8883 11414 43.77% 56.23%

Linn Missouri 2572 3257 44.12% 55.88%

Livingston Missouri 2380 3942 37.65% 62.35%

Macon Missouri 2815 4536 38.29% 61.71%

Madison Missouri 1971 2803 41.29% 58.71%

Maries Missouri 1577 2701 36.86% 63.14%

Marion Missouri 4722 7484 38.69% 61.31%

McDonald Missouri 2244 5249 29.95% 70.05%

Mercer Missouri 548 1200 31.35% 68.65%

Miller Missouri 3280 7385 30.75% 69.25%

Mississippi Missouri 2402 2848 45.75% 54.25%

Moniteau Missouri 2047 4403 31.74% 68.26%

Monroe Missouri 1719 2486 40.88% 59.12%

Montgomery Missouri 2223 3401 39.53% 60.47%

Morgan Missouri 3321 5299 38.53% 61.47%

New Madrid Missouri 3567 4185 46.01% 53.99%

Newton Missouri 6932 16730 29.30% 70.70%

Nodaway Missouri 4063 5697 41.63% 58.37%

Oregon Missouri 1761 2662 39.81% 60.19%

Osage Missouri 1835 4831 27.53% 72.47%

Ozark Missouri 1577 2916 35.10% 64.90%

Pemiscot Missouri 3194 3501 47.71% 52.29%

Perry Missouri 2673 5355 33.30% 66.70%

Pettis Missouri 6313 10880 36.72% 63.28%

Phelps Missouri 6899 11258 38.00% 62.00%

Pike Missouri 3561 4143 46.22% 53.78%

Page 54: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Platte Missouri 19078 22590 45.79% 54.21%

Polk Missouri 4083 8271 33.05% 66.95%

Pulaski Missouri 4362 8569 33.73% 66.27%

Putnam Missouri 724 1614 30.97% 69.03%

Ralls Missouri 2036 2866 41.53% 58.47%

Randolph Missouri 3878 6125 38.77% 61.23%

Ray Missouri 5112 5381 48.72% 51.28%

Reynolds Missouri 1400 1814 43.56% 56.44%

Ripley Missouri 1838 3438 34.84% 65.16%

Saline Missouri 4603 5015 47.86% 52.14%

Schuyler Missouri 822 1138 41.94% 58.06%

Scotland Missouri 804 1302 38.18% 61.82%

Scott Missouri 6234 10916 36.35% 63.65%

Shannon Missouri 1585 2258 41.24% 58.76%

Shelby Missouri 1176 2153 35.33% 64.67%

St. Charles Missouri 71648 93540 43.37% 56.63%

St. Clair Missouri 1867 2964 38.65% 61.35%

St. Francois Missouri 10727 11728 47.77% 52.23%

St. Louis Missouri 300860 229270 56.75% 43.25%

St. Louis City Missouri 118950 25692 82.24% 17.76%

Ste. Genevieve Missouri 4440 3701 54.54% 45.46%

Stoddard Missouri 4043 8874 31.30% 68.70%

Stone Missouri 4660 10193 31.37% 68.63%

Sullivan Missouri 1164 1758 39.84% 60.16%

Taney Missouri 5966 13209 31.11% 68.89%

Texas Missouri 3512 6981 33.47% 66.53%

Vernon Missouri 3272 5389 37.78% 62.22%

Warren Missouri 5806 7811 42.64% 57.36%

Washington Missouri 4480 4531 49.72% 50.28%

Wayne Missouri 2277 3732 37.89% 62.11%

Webster Missouri 5006 9666 34.12% 65.88%

Worth Missouri 439 689 38.92% 61.08%

Wright Missouri 2365 5797 28.98% 71.02%

Beaverhead Montana 1261 3040 29.32% 70.68%

Big Horn Montana 2811 1764 61.44% 38.56%

Blaine Montana 1471 1294 53.20% 46.80%

Broadwater Montana 660 1747 27.42% 72.58%

Carbon Montana 2015 3157 38.96% 61.04%

Carter Montana 86 590 12.72% 87.28%

Cascade Montana 15258 17790 46.17% 53.83%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Chouteau Montana 965 1813 34.74% 65.26%

Custer Montana 1882 3151 37.39% 62.61%

Daniels Montana 328 729 31.03% 68.97%

Dawson Montana 1506 2734 35.52% 64.48%

Deer Lodge Montana 2979 1565 65.56% 34.44%

Fallon Montana 295 1109 21.01% 78.99%

Fergus Montana 1682 4265 28.28% 71.72%

Flathead Montana 12814 24949 33.93% 66.07%

Gallatin Montana 18352 21594 45.94% 54.06%

Garfield Montana 79 606 11.53% 88.47%

Glacier Montana 2865 1630 63.74% 36.26%

Golden Valley Montana 113 374 23.20% 76.80%

Granite Montana 467 1094 29.92% 70.08%

Hill Montana 3196 3150 50.36% 49.64%

Jefferson Montana 2107 3583 37.03% 62.97%

Judith Basin Montana 345 905 27.60% 72.40%

Lake Montana 5491 6719 44.97% 55.03%

Lewis and Clark Montana 13986 15427 47.55% 52.45%

Liberty Montana 311 676 31.51% 68.49%

Lincoln Montana 2477 5735 30.16% 69.84%

Madison Montana 1205 2792 30.15% 69.85%

McCone Montana 309 770 28.64% 71.36%

Meagher Montana 254 665 27.64% 72.36%

Mineral Montana 641 1121 36.38% 63.62%

Missoula Montana 28693 21775 56.85% 43.15%

Musselshell Montana 569 1596 26.28% 73.72%

Park Montana 3385 4528 42.78% 57.22%

Petroleum Montana 57 233 19.66% 80.34%

Phillips Montana 530 1575 25.18% 74.82%

Pondera Montana 1039 1754 37.20% 62.80%

Powder River Montana 169 831 16.90% 83.10%

Powell Montana 849 1849 31.47% 68.53%

Prairie Montana 191 526 26.64% 73.36%

Ravalli Montana 6740 12667 34.73% 65.27%

Richland Montana 1131 3075 26.89% 73.11%

Roosevelt Montana 2312 1591 59.24% 40.76%

Rosebud Montana 1660 1839 47.44% 52.56%

Sanders Montana 1632 3433 32.22% 67.78%

Sheridan Montana 862 1086 44.25% 55.75%

Silver Bow Montana 10273 5663 64.46% 35.54%

Page 56: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Stillwater Montana 1219 2973 29.08% 70.92%

Sweet Grass Montana 448 1462 23.46% 76.54%

Teton Montana 1111 2086 34.75% 65.25%

Toole Montana 697 1479 32.03% 67.97%

Treasure Montana 132 330 28.57% 71.43%

Valley Montana 1478 2314 38.98% 61.02%

Wheatland Montana 264 682 27.91% 72.09%

Wibaux Montana 140 386 26.62% 73.38%

Yellowstone Montana 26673 37273 41.71% 58.29%

Adams Nebraska 4138 8519 32.69% 67.31%

Antelope Nebraska 690 2542 21.35% 78.65%

Arthur Nebraska 31 229 11.92% 88.08%

Banner Nebraska 60 365 14.12% 85.88%

Blaine Nebraska 41 285 12.58% 87.42%

Boone Nebraska 640 2165 22.82% 77.18%

Box Butte Nebraska 1731 3128 35.62% 64.38%

Boyd Nebraska 246 883 21.79% 78.21%

Brown Nebraska 281 1312 17.64% 82.36%

Buffalo Nebraska 4803 13134 26.78% 73.22%

Burt Nebraska 1321 2082 38.82% 61.18%

Butler Nebraska 1107 2718 28.94% 71.06%

Cass Nebraska 4112 7098 36.68% 63.32%

Cedar Nebraska 1125 3087 26.71% 73.29%

Chase Nebraska 320 1537 17.23% 82.77%

Cherry Nebraska 526 2401 17.97% 82.03%

Cheyenne Nebraska 959 3436 21.82% 78.18%

Clay Nebraska 758 2313 24.68% 75.32%

Colfax Nebraska 1022 2278 30.97% 69.03%

Cuming Nebraska 1070 3029 26.10% 73.90%

Custer Nebraska 1087 4325 20.08% 79.92%

Dakota Nebraska 2926 3315 46.88% 53.12%

Dawes Nebraska 1109 2538 30.41% 69.59%

Dawson Nebraska 2008 5660 26.19% 73.81%

Deuel Nebraska 229 773 22.85% 77.15%

Dixon Nebraska 915 1877 32.77% 67.23%

Dodge Nebraska 5793 9313 38.35% 61.65%

Douglas Nebraska 90310 106021 46.00% 54.00%

Dundy Nebraska 199 812 19.68% 80.32%

Fillmore Nebraska 888 2069 30.03% 69.97%

Franklin Nebraska 427 1171 26.72% 73.28%

Page 57: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Frontier Nebraska 301 1089 21.65% 78.35%

Furnas Nebraska 530 1828 22.48% 77.52%

Gage Nebraska 3957 5817 40.48% 59.52%

Garden Nebraska 238 912 20.70% 79.30%

Garfield Nebraska 204 784 20.65% 79.35%

Gosper Nebraska 240 808 22.90% 77.10%

Grant Nebraska 43 332 11.47% 88.53%

Greeley Nebraska 416 792 34.44% 65.56%

Hall Nebraska 6815 13170 34.10% 65.90%

Hamilton Nebraska 1162 3478 25.04% 74.96%

Harlan Nebraska 407 1381 22.76% 77.24%

Hayes Nebraska 74 487 13.19% 86.81%

Hitchcock Nebraska 322 1084 22.90% 77.10%

Holt Nebraska 959 3912 19.69% 80.31%

Hooker Nebraska 71 359 16.51% 83.49%

Howard Nebraska 994 1885 34.53% 65.47%

Jefferson Nebraska 1422 2318 38.02% 61.98%

Johnson Nebraska 878 1265 40.97% 59.03%

Kearney Nebraska 773 2377 24.54% 75.46%

Keith Nebraska 849 3071 21.66% 78.34%

Keya Paha Nebraska 101 423 19.27% 80.73%

Kimball Nebraska 396 1394 22.12% 77.88%

Knox Nebraska 1147 2850 28.70% 71.30%

Lancaster Nebraska 55711 61336 47.60% 52.40%

Lincoln Nebraska 4986 10449 32.30% 67.70%

Logan Nebraska 72 339 17.52% 82.48%

Loup Nebraska 80 302 20.94% 79.06%

Madison Nebraska 3406 10043 25.33% 74.67%

McPherson Nebraska 47 247 15.99% 84.01%

Merrick Nebraska 901 2500 26.49% 73.51%

Morrill Nebraska 511 1698 23.13% 76.87%

Nance Nebraska 503 1151 30.41% 69.59%

Nemaha Nebraska 1128 2278 33.12% 66.88%

Nuckolls Nebraska 631 1720 26.84% 73.16%

Otoe Nebraska 2535 4375 36.69% 63.31%

Pawnee Nebraska 490 918 34.80% 65.20%

Perkins Nebraska 279 1171 19.24% 80.76%

Phelps Nebraska 948 3570 20.98% 79.02%

Pierce Nebraska 656 2559 20.40% 79.60%

Platte Nebraska 3126 10025 23.77% 76.23%

Page 58: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Polk Nebraska 614 1948 23.97% 76.03%

Red Willow Nebraska 1156 3860 23.05% 76.95%

Richardson Nebraska 1395 2583 35.07% 64.93%

Rock Nebraska 135 690 16.36% 83.64%

Saline Nebraska 2477 2652 48.29% 51.71%

Sarpy Nebraska 21366 36913 36.66% 63.34%

Saunders Nebraska 3257 6136 34.67% 65.33%

Scotts Bluff Nebraska 4220 8273 33.78% 66.22%

Seward Nebraska 2392 4817 33.18% 66.82%

Sheridan Nebraska 431 2039 17.45% 82.55%

Sherman Nebraska 565 1013 35.80% 64.20%

Sioux Nebraska 114 632 15.28% 84.72%

Stanton Nebraska 589 1928 23.40% 76.60%

Thayer Nebraska 815 1926 29.73% 70.27%

Thomas Nebraska 55 346 13.72% 86.28%

Thurston Nebraska 1065 1004 51.47% 48.53%

Valley Nebraska 630 1690 27.16% 72.84%

Washington Nebraska 3121 6489 32.48% 67.52%

Wayne Nebraska 1131 2719 29.38% 70.62%

Webster Nebraska 560 1305 30.03% 69.97%

Wheeler Nebraska 89 348 20.37% 79.63%

York Nebraska 1456 5004 22.54% 77.46%

Carson City Nevada 9947 11929 45.47% 54.53%

Churchill Nevada 2941 6867 29.99% 70.01%

Clark Nevada 306035 237053 56.35% 43.65%

Douglas Nevada 8798 14060 38.49% 61.51%

Elko Nevada 3598 11300 24.15% 75.85%

Esmeralda Nevada 105 331 24.08% 75.92%

Eureka Nevada 145 581 19.97% 80.03%

Humboldt Nevada 1553 3700 29.56% 70.44%

Lander Nevada 481 1544 23.75% 76.25%

Lincoln Nevada 472 1497 23.97% 76.03%

Lyon Nevada 6493 10729 37.70% 62.30%

Mineral Nevada 995 1221 44.90% 55.10%

Nye Nevada 6088 8601 41.45% 58.55%

Pershing Nevada 584 1196 32.81% 67.19%

Storey Nevada 927 1196 43.66% 56.34%

Washoe Nevada 80700 75432 51.69% 48.31%

White Pine Nevada 1145 2449 31.86% 68.14%

Belknap New Hampshire 14540 16552 46.76% 53.24%

Page 59: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Carroll New Hampshire 12849 13210 49.31% 50.69%

Cheshire New Hampshire 20766 12874 61.73% 38.27%

Coos New Hampshire 7643 6454 54.22% 45.78%

Grafton New Hampshire 25078 17463 58.95% 41.05%

Hillsborough New Hampshire 86157 85086 50.31% 49.69%

Merrimack New Hampshire 38237 32230 54.26% 45.74%

Rockingham New Hampshire 74136 76357 49.26% 50.74%

Strafford New Hampshire 31775 22973 58.04% 41.96%

Sullivan New Hampshire 11240 9310 54.70% 45.30%

Atlantic New Jersey 58110 44958 56.38% 43.62%

Bergen New Jersey 206889 174785 54.21% 45.79%

Burlington New Jersey 112793 84959 57.04% 42.96%

Camden New Jersey 137484 71277 65.86% 34.14%

Cape May New Jersey 21205 25828 45.09% 54.91%

Cumberland New Jersey 30825 22200 58.13% 41.87%

Essex New Jersey 204838 72365 73.89% 26.11%

Gloucester New Jersey 69983 56089 55.51% 44.49%

Hudson New Jersey 131665 52829 71.37% 28.63%

Hunterdon New Jersey 26608 37772 41.33% 58.67%

Mercer New Jersey 93097 50091 65.02% 34.98%

Middlesex New Jersey 169953 114494 59.75% 40.25%

Monmouth New Jersey 139330 151931 47.84% 52.16%

Morris New Jersey 97251 124298 43.90% 56.10%

Ocean New Jersey 104521 145767 41.76% 58.24%

Passaic New Jersey 100762 70565 58.81% 41.19%

Salem New Jersey 14702 14525 50.30% 49.70%

Somerset New Jersey 67448 67318 50.05% 49.95%

Sussex New Jersey 25381 43733 36.72% 63.28%

Union New Jersey 123350 75614 62.00% 38.00%

Warren New Jersey 18767 26910 41.09% 58.91%

Bernalillo New Mexico 140192 109791 56.08% 43.92%

Catron New Mexico 555 1379 28.70% 71.30%

Chaves New Mexico 7278 13511 35.01% 64.99%

Cibola New Mexico 4775 3139 60.34% 39.66%

Colfax New Mexico 3071 2850 51.87% 48.13%

Curry New Mexico 4021 9654 29.40% 70.60%

De Baca New Mexico 330 671 32.97% 67.03%

Dona Ana New Mexico 33045 26668 55.34% 44.66%

Eddy New Mexico 7032 12168 36.63% 63.38%

Grant New Mexico 7222 5539 56.59% 43.41%

Page 60: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Guadalupe New Mexico 1371 700 66.20% 33.80%

Harding New Mexico 248 367 40.33% 59.67%

Hidalgo New Mexico 913 987 48.05% 51.95%

Lea New Mexico 4316 12918 25.04% 74.96%

Lincoln New Mexico 2940 5639 34.27% 65.73%

Los Alamos New Mexico 5243 5432 49.11% 50.89%

Luna New Mexico 3681 3857 48.83% 51.17%

McKinley New Mexico 13826 6351 68.52% 31.48%

Mora New Mexico 1910 710 72.90% 27.10%

Otero New Mexico 7182 12653 36.21% 63.79%

Quay New Mexico 1488 2447 37.81% 62.19%

Rio Arriba New Mexico 10064 4114 70.98% 29.02%

Roosevelt New Mexico 2094 4406 32.22% 67.78%

San Juan New Mexico 15452 26791 36.58% 63.42%

San Miguel New Mexico 8849 2673 76.80% 23.20%

Sandoval New Mexico 24719 22031 52.87% 47.13%

Santa Fe New Mexico 46758 16146 74.33% 25.67%

Sierra New Mexico 2062 2997 40.76% 59.24%

Socorro New Mexico 4136 3275 55.81% 44.19%

Taos New Mexico 11175 3088 78.35% 21.65%

Torrance New Mexico 2574 3638 41.44% 58.56%

Union New Mexico 456 1308 25.85% 74.15%

Valencia New Mexico 12668 13018 49.32% 50.68%

Albany New York 87065 50042 63.50% 36.50%

Allegany New York 6439 11226 36.45% 63.55%

Bronx New York 287210 44093 86.69% 13.31%

Broome New York 44849 39521 53.16% 46.84%

Cattaraugus New York 13708 18313 42.81% 57.19%

Cayuga New York 17037 15593 52.21% 47.79%

Chautauqua New York 27061 29089 48.19% 51.81%

Chemung New York 17435 19633 47.04% 52.96%

Chenango New York 9231 10405 47.01% 52.99%

Clinton New York 17432 13186 56.93% 43.07%

Columbia New York 15212 13453 53.07% 46.93%

Cortland New York 10428 10048 50.93% 49.07%

Delaware New York 8591 10695 44.55% 55.45%

Dutchess New York 59835 57540 50.98% 49.02%

Erie New York 234245 165832 58.55% 41.45%

Essex New York 8920 8445 51.37% 48.63%

Franklin New York 9416 7268 56.44% 43.56%

Page 61: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Fulton New York 9202 11858 43.69% 56.31%

Genesee New York 10166 15265 39.97% 60.03%

Greene New York 9134 12180 42.85% 57.15%

Hamilton New York 1100 2201 33.32% 66.68%

Herkimer New York 11461 14358 44.39% 55.61%

Jefferson New York 16563 19383 46.08% 53.92%

Kings New York 524777 139226 79.03% 20.97%

Lewis New York 4617 6098 43.09% 56.91%

Livingston New York 12139 16367 42.58% 57.42%

Madison New York 12955 14845 46.60% 53.40%

Monroe New York 181137 147686 55.09% 44.91%

Montgomery New York 9246 10584 46.63% 53.37%

Nassau New York 324280 267781 54.77% 45.23%

New York New York 493492 88872 84.74% 15.26%

Niagara New York 46088 44248 51.02% 48.98%

Oneida New York 43596 48734 47.22% 52.78%

Onondaga New York 115833 85698 57.48% 42.52%

Ontario New York 21579 24863 46.46% 53.54%

Orange New York 64351 69891 47.94% 52.06%

Orleans New York 6047 9558 38.75% 61.25%

Oswego New York 23381 23679 49.68% 50.32%

Otsego New York 12153 12078 50.15% 49.85%

Putnam New York 19251 24106 44.40% 55.60%

Queens New York 431226 146602 74.63% 25.37%

Rensselaer New York 36005 31981 52.96% 47.04%

Richmond New York 71752 80244 47.21% 52.79%

Rockland New York 65797 58341 53.00% 47.00%

Saratoga New York 48960 51184 48.89% 51.11%

Schenectady New York 35677 29423 54.80% 45.20%

Schoharie New York 5634 7863 41.74% 58.26%

Schuyler New York 3567 4596 43.70% 56.30%

Seneca New York 6915 7071 49.44% 50.56%

St. Lawrence New York 21990 16764 56.74% 43.26%

Steuben New York 15118 24456 38.20% 61.80%

Suffolk New York 315113 285419 52.47% 47.53%

Sullivan New York 15244 13846 52.40% 47.60%

Tioga New York 9581 12675 43.05% 56.95%

Tompkins New York 25656 12522 67.20% 32.80%

Ulster New York 46703 33993 57.88% 42.12%

Warren New York 13585 15398 46.87% 53.13%

Page 62: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Washington New York 10958 12616 46.48% 53.52%

Wayne New York 16045 22429 41.70% 58.30%

Westchester New York 235052 147520 61.44% 38.56%

Wyoming New York 6046 10978 35.51% 64.49%

Yates New York 4233 5466 43.64% 56.36%

Alamance North Carolina 23482 32947 41.61% 58.39%

Alexander North Carolina 4755 10917 30.34% 69.66%

Alleghany North Carolina 1918 2909 39.73% 60.27%

Anson North Carolina 5666 3775 60.01% 39.99%

Ashe North Carolina 4544 7319 38.30% 61.70%

Avery North Carolina 1938 5490 26.09% 73.91%

Beaufort North Carolina 8005 12456 39.12% 60.88%

Bertie North Carolina 5458 3055 64.11% 35.89%

Bladen North Carolina 6832 6511 51.20% 48.80%

Brunswick North Carolina 17341 24697 41.25% 58.75%

Buncombe North Carolina 56706 50958 52.67% 47.33%

Burke North Carolina 13058 20085 39.40% 60.60%

Cabarrus North Carolina 24082 41012 37.00% 63.00%

Caldwell North Carolina 10578 20869 33.64% 66.36%

Camden North Carolina 1415 2574 35.47% 64.53%

Carteret North Carolina 9466 19931 32.20% 67.80%

Caswell North Carolina 4851 4872 49.89% 50.11%

Catawba North Carolina 21245 39852 34.77% 65.23%

Chatham North Carolina 14527 13060 52.66% 47.34%

Cherokee North Carolina 3597 7725 31.77% 68.23%

Chowan North Carolina 2965 3193 48.15% 51.85%

Clay North Carolina 1614 3247 33.20% 66.80%

Cleveland North Carolina 15406 23353 39.75% 60.25%

Columbus North Carolina 10595 11222 48.56% 51.44%

Craven North Carolina 15091 22485 40.16% 59.84%

Cumberland North Carolina 56702 47784 54.27% 45.73%

Currituck North Carolina 3184 6096 34.31% 65.69%

Dare North Carolina 6736 9013 42.77% 57.23%

Davidson North Carolina 19193 41949 31.39% 68.61%

Davie North Carolina 4934 12541 28.23% 71.77%

Duplin North Carolina 7687 9717 44.17% 55.83%

Durham North Carolina 82259 32478 71.69% 28.31%

Edgecombe North Carolina 14525 7981 64.54% 35.46%

Forsyth North Carolina 73087 72722 50.13% 49.87%

Franklin North Carolina 10539 11595 47.61% 52.39%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Gaston North Carolina 24924 46394 34.95% 65.05%

Gates North Carolina 2395 2102 53.26% 46.74%

Graham North Carolina 1210 2665 31.23% 68.77%

Granville North Carolina 10520 9855 51.63% 48.37%

Greene North Carolina 3116 3904 44.39% 55.61%

Guilford North Carolina 114269 94844 54.64% 45.36%

Halifax North Carolina 13104 8125 61.73% 38.27%

Harnett North Carolina 13231 20615 39.09% 60.91%

Haywood North Carolina 11577 14164 44.97% 55.03%

Henderson North Carolina 16709 28785 36.73% 63.27%

Hertford North Carolina 6256 2880 68.48% 31.52%

Hoke North Carolina 7105 5271 57.41% 42.59%

Hyde North Carolina 1136 1198 48.67% 51.33%

Iredell North Carolina 21541 39516 35.28% 64.72%

Jackson North Carolina 7371 7300 50.24% 49.76%

Johnston North Carolina 20567 37532 35.40% 64.60%

Jones North Carolina 2087 2586 44.66% 55.34%

Lee North Carolina 8817 11658 43.06% 56.94%

Lenoir North Carolina 11367 12774 47.09% 52.91%

Lincoln North Carolina 10202 20700 33.01% 66.99%

Macon North Carolina 5805 9578 37.74% 62.26%

Madison North Carolina 4417 5064 46.59% 53.41%

Martin North Carolina 5680 5389 51.31% 48.69%

McDowell North Carolina 5727 10613 35.05% 64.95%

Mecklenburg North Carolina 196097 149468 56.75% 43.25%

Mitchell North Carolina 2021 5435 27.11% 72.89%

Montgomery North Carolina 4486 5736 43.89% 56.11%

Moore North Carolina 14807 24730 37.45% 62.55%

Nash North Carolina 18209 21815 45.50% 54.50%

New Hanover North Carolina 39961 45453 46.79% 53.21%

Northampton North Carolina 6150 3279 65.22% 34.78%

Onslow North Carolina 14608 26306 35.70% 64.30%

Orange North Carolina 45047 19897 69.36% 30.64%

Pamlico North Carolina 2518 3586 41.25% 58.75%

Pasquotank North Carolina 8153 6733 54.77% 45.23%

Pender North Carolina 8128 11056 42.37% 57.63%

Perquimans North Carolina 2336 3117 42.84% 57.16%

Person North Carolina 6924 8932 43.67% 56.33%

Pitt North Carolina 30355 29541 50.68% 49.32%

Polk North Carolina 3907 5501 41.53% 58.47%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Randolph North Carolina 14083 37534 27.28% 72.72%

Richmond North Carolina 8818 8102 52.12% 47.88%

Robeson North Carolina 19837 15411 56.28% 43.72%

Rockingham North Carolina 15192 21802 41.07% 58.93%

Rowan North Carolina 19231 34636 35.70% 64.30%

Rutherford North Carolina 8703 16785 34.15% 65.85%

Sampson North Carolina 10388 12714 44.97% 55.03%

Scotland North Carolina 6981 5199 57.32% 42.68%

Stanly North Carolina 8038 17923 30.96% 69.04%

Stokes North Carolina 6069 13572 30.90% 69.10%

Surry North Carolina 9114 17540 34.19% 65.81%

Swain North Carolina 2518 2646 48.76% 51.24%

Transylvania North Carolina 6355 9264 40.69% 59.31%

Tyrrell North Carolina 847 869 49.36% 50.64%

Union North Carolina 23095 45304 33.77% 66.23%

Vance North Carolina 10317 6902 59.92% 40.08%

Wake North Carolina 194257 172236 53.00% 47.00%

Warren North Carolina 5702 2766 67.34% 32.66%

Washington North Carolina 3250 2495 56.57% 43.43%

Watauga North Carolina 11963 12452 49.00% 51.00%

Wayne North Carolina 17918 24818 41.93% 58.07%

Wilkes North Carolina 8177 19095 29.98% 70.02%

Wilson North Carolina 16018 16564 49.16% 50.84%

Yadkin North Carolina 3846 11749 24.66% 75.34%

Yancey North Carolina 4290 4983 46.26% 53.74%

Adams North Dakota 374 837 30.88% 69.12%

Barnes North Dakota 2368 3195 42.57% 57.43%

Benson North Dakota 1306 912 58.88% 41.12%

Billings North Dakota 102 404 20.16% 79.84%

Bottineau North Dakota 1265 2254 35.95% 64.05%

Bowman North Dakota 418 1158 26.52% 73.48%

Burke North Dakota 304 708 30.04% 69.96%

Burleigh North Dakota 12960 25132 34.02% 65.98%

Cass North Dakota 30138 35110 46.19% 53.81%

Cavalier North Dakota 846 1344 38.63% 61.37%

Dickey North Dakota 935 1716 35.27% 64.73%

Divide North Dakota 435 628 40.92% 59.08%

Dunn North Dakota 529 1122 32.04% 67.96%

Eddy North Dakota 538 618 46.54% 53.46%

Emmons North Dakota 536 1346 28.48% 71.52%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Foster North Dakota 583 1073 35.21% 64.79%

Golden Valley North Dakota 193 660 22.63% 77.37%

Grand Forks North Dakota 13716 15737 46.57% 53.43%

Grant North Dakota 319 943 25.28% 74.72%

Griggs North Dakota 541 810 40.04% 59.96%

Hettinger North Dakota 394 979 28.70% 71.30%

Kidder North Dakota 394 820 32.45% 67.55%

La Moure North Dakota 776 1465 34.63% 65.37%

Logan North Dakota 271 784 25.69% 74.31%

McHenry North Dakota 976 1564 38.43% 61.57%

McIntosh North Dakota 480 1086 30.65% 69.35%

McKenzie North Dakota 842 1764 32.31% 67.69%

McLean North Dakota 1706 2875 37.24% 62.76%

Mercer North Dakota 1294 2997 30.16% 69.84%

Morton North Dakota 4377 7819 35.89% 64.11%

Mountrial North Dakota 1423 1458 49.39% 50.61%

Nelson North Dakota 814 952 46.09% 53.91%

Oliver North Dakota 305 723 29.67% 70.33%

Pembina North Dakota 1344 2122 38.78% 61.22%

Pierce North Dakota 692 1369 33.58% 66.42%

Ramsey North Dakota 2024 2697 42.87% 57.13%

Ransom North Dakota 1248 1223 50.51% 49.49%

Renville North Dakota 489 854 36.41% 63.59%

Richland North Dakota 3054 4595 39.93% 60.07%

Rolette North Dakota 2963 1242 70.46% 29.54%

Sargent North Dakota 1048 971 51.91% 48.09%

Sheridan North Dakota 203 644 23.97% 76.03%

Sioux North Dakota 937 262 78.15% 21.85%

Slope North Dakota 96 314 23.41% 76.59%

Stark North Dakota 3309 6946 32.27% 67.73%

Steele North Dakota 583 520 52.86% 47.14%

Stutsman North Dakota 3624 5829 38.34% 61.66%

Towner North Dakota 569 644 46.91% 53.09%

Traill North Dakota 1835 2197 45.51% 54.49%

Walsh North Dakota 2055 2824 42.12% 57.88%

Ward North Dakota 8919 15463 36.58% 63.42%

Wells North Dakota 806 1562 34.04% 65.96%

Williams North Dakota 2651 6033 30.53% 69.47%

Adams Ohio 4019 6958 36.61% 63.39%

Allen Ohio 15967 28856 35.62% 64.38%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Ashland Ohio 8356 14983 35.80% 64.20%

Ashtabula Ohio 23197 19206 54.71% 45.29%

Athens Ohio 17816 9819 64.47% 35.53%

Auglaize Ohio 6089 15816 27.80% 72.20%

Belmont Ohio 16515 14725 52.86% 47.14%

Brown Ohio 6943 11721 37.20% 62.80%

Butler Ohio 56999 100993 36.08% 63.92%

Carroll Ohio 6003 7151 45.64% 54.36%

Champaign Ohio 6829 10808 38.72% 61.28%

Clark Ohio 30340 31936 48.72% 51.28%

Clermont Ohio 26668 58250 31.40% 68.60%

Clinton Ohio 4222 9352 31.10% 68.90%

Columbiana Ohio 21832 24492 47.13% 52.87%

Coshocton Ohio 7071 8926 44.20% 55.80%

Crawford Ohio 7660 12576 37.85% 62.15%

Cuyahoga Ohio 425853 203810 67.63% 32.37%

Darke Ohio 7795 16940 31.51% 68.49%

Defiance Ohio 7279 10425 41.12% 58.88%

Delaware Ohio 28756 49710 36.65% 63.35%

Erie Ohio 14096 11836 54.36% 45.64%

Fairfield Ohio 25159 39780 38.74% 61.26%

Fayette Ohio 4058 6802 37.37% 62.63%

Franklin Ohio 275779 214315 56.27% 43.73%

Fulton Ohio 8532 12185 41.18% 58.82%

Gallia Ohio 4923 8104 37.79% 62.21%

Geauga Ohio 19199 28356 40.37% 59.63%

Greene Ohio 29918 45535 39.65% 60.35%

Guernsey Ohio 7341 9116 44.61% 55.39%

Hamilton Ohio 195267 203072 49.02% 50.98%

Hancock Ohio 11342 22764 33.26% 66.74%

Hardin Ohio 4797 7754 38.22% 61.78%

Harrison Ohio 3610 3882 48.18% 51.82%

Henry Ohio 5413 8792 38.11% 61.89%

Highland Ohio 6110 11294 35.11% 64.89%

Hocking Ohio 5756 6335 47.61% 52.39%

Holmes Ohio 2724 7697 26.14% 73.86%

Huron Ohio 10630 13354 44.32% 55.68%

Jackson Ohio 5310 7891 40.22% 59.78%

Jefferson Ohio 17901 16722 51.70% 48.30%

Knox Ohio 9615 15869 37.73% 62.27%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Lake Ohio 54365 56426 49.07% 50.93%

Lawrence Ohio 11422 14627 43.85% 56.15%

Licking Ohio 29826 44968 39.88% 60.12%

Logan Ohio 6981 13430 34.20% 65.80%

Lorain Ohio 74156 55516 57.19% 42.81%

Lucas Ohio 128194 76847 62.52% 37.48%

Madison Ohio 5995 10205 37.01% 62.99%

Mahoning Ohio 77048 44951 63.15% 36.85%

Marion Ohio 10068 13667 42.42% 57.58%

Medina Ohio 35630 45178 44.09% 55.91%

Meigs Ohio 4069 5987 40.46% 59.54%

Mercer Ohio 5369 14538 26.97% 73.03%

Miami Ohio 17201 31469 35.34% 64.66%

Monroe Ohio 3826 3162 54.75% 45.25%

Montgomery Ohio 133625 125206 51.63% 48.37%

Morgan Ohio 2759 3525 43.91% 56.09%

Morrow Ohio 5603 9611 36.83% 63.17%

Muskingum Ohio 16103 20383 44.13% 55.87%

Noble Ohio 2470 3549 41.04% 58.96%

Ottawa Ohio 8122 8204 49.75% 50.25%

Paulding Ohio 3752 5539 40.38% 59.62%

Perry Ohio 6897 7421 48.17% 51.83%

Pickaway Ohio 8228 13251 38.31% 61.69%

Pike Ohio 5683 6027 48.53% 51.47%

Portage Ohio 38655 33303 53.72% 46.28%

Preble Ohio 6884 12990 34.64% 65.36%

Putnam Ohio 4664 13356 25.88% 74.12%

Richland Ohio 23822 33726 41.40% 58.60%

Ross Ohio 13311 15913 45.55% 54.45%

Sandusky Ohio 13417 14646 47.81% 52.19%

Scioto Ohio 15151 16745 47.50% 52.50%

Seneca Ohio 11433 14415 44.23% 55.77%

Shelby Ohio 6655 14843 30.96% 69.04%

Stark Ohio 88839 84397 51.28% 48.72%

Summit Ohio 146839 109298 57.33% 42.67%

Trumbull Ohio 62702 38835 61.75% 38.25%

Tuscarawas Ohio 15215 17450 46.58% 53.42%

Union Ohio 7052 14534 32.67% 67.33%

Van Wert Ohio 4543 9485 32.39% 67.61%

Vinton Ohio 2405 3004 44.46% 55.54%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Warren Ohio 27323 64412 29.78% 70.22%

Washington Ohio 11859 16652 41.59% 58.41%

Wayne Ohio 19277 29151 39.81% 60.19%

Williams Ohio 6880 10497 39.59% 60.41%

Wood Ohio 29489 30118 49.47% 50.53%

Wyandot Ohio 3930 6528 37.58% 62.42%

Adair Oklahoma 2289 5076 31.08% 68.92%

Alfalfa Oklahoma 469 2052 18.60% 81.40%

Atoka Oklahoma 1681 3135 34.90% 65.10%

Beaver Oklahoma 292 2199 11.72% 88.28%

Beckham Oklahoma 1901 5286 26.45% 73.55%

Blaine Oklahoma 1168 3029 27.83% 72.17%

Bryan Oklahoma 5115 8355 37.97% 62.03%

Caddo Oklahoma 3764 6083 38.22% 61.78%

Canadian Oklahoma 10173 32321 23.94% 76.06%

Carter Oklahoma 6125 12092 33.62% 66.38%

Cherokee Oklahoma 7684 8808 46.59% 53.41%

Choctaw Oklahoma 2328 3260 41.66% 58.34%

Cimarron Oklahoma 179 1185 13.12% 86.88%

Cleveland Oklahoma 35144 61207 36.47% 63.53%

Coal Oklahoma 909 1446 38.60% 61.40%

Comanche Oklahoma 12943 19803 39.53% 60.47%

Cotton Oklahoma 843 1686 33.33% 66.67%

Craig Oklahoma 2326 3638 39.00% 61.00%

Creek Oklahoma 9174 18270 33.43% 66.57%

Custer Oklahoma 2808 7549 27.11% 72.89%

Delaware Oklahoma 5349 9598 35.79% 64.21%

Dewey Oklahoma 423 1797 19.05% 80.95%

Ellis Oklahoma 361 1621 18.21% 81.79%

Garfield Oklahoma 5780 16791 25.61% 74.39%

Garvin Oklahoma 3512 7193 32.81% 67.19%

Grady Oklahoma 5783 13693 29.69% 70.31%

Grant Oklahoma 576 1858 23.66% 76.34%

Greer Oklahoma 678 1484 31.36% 68.64%

Harmon Oklahoma 379 770 32.99% 67.01%

Harper Oklahoma 271 1350 16.72% 83.28%

Haskell Oklahoma 2006 2860 41.22% 58.78%

Hughes Oklahoma 2037 2902 41.24% 58.76%

Jackson Oklahoma 2309 6569 26.01% 73.99%

Jefferson Oklahoma 987 1542 39.03% 60.97%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Johnston Oklahoma 1527 2542 37.53% 62.47%

Kay Oklahoma 5774 13202 30.43% 69.57%

Kingfisher Oklahoma 1079 5307 16.90% 83.10%

Kiowa Oklahoma 1359 2480 35.40% 64.60%

Latimer Oklahoma 1646 2501 39.69% 60.31%

Le Flore Oklahoma 5982 10543 36.20% 63.80%

Lincoln Oklahoma 3824 9677 28.32% 71.68%

Logan Oklahoma 5166 11224 31.52% 68.48%

Love Oklahoma 1411 2317 37.85% 62.15%

Major Oklahoma 549 2948 15.70% 84.30%

Marshall Oklahoma 1917 3365 36.29% 63.71%

Mayes Oklahoma 6337 9447 40.15% 59.85%

McClain Oklahoma 3643 9818 27.06% 72.94%

McCurtain Oklahoma 3303 7399 30.86% 69.14%

McIntosh Oklahoma 3905 4508 46.42% 53.58%

Murray Oklahoma 1920 3466 35.65% 64.35%

Muskogee Oklahoma 11993 14457 45.34% 54.66%

Noble Oklahoma 1281 3774 25.34% 74.66%

Nowata Oklahoma 1559 2741 36.26% 63.74%

Okfuskee Oklahoma 1637 2446 40.09% 59.91%

Oklahoma Oklahoma 102178 161642 38.73% 61.27%

Okmulgee Oklahoma 6802 7953 46.10% 53.90%

Osage Oklahoma 7695 11031 41.09% 58.91%

Ottawa Oklahoma 4846 6799 41.61% 58.39%

Pawnee Oklahoma 2313 4238 35.31% 64.69%

Payne Oklahoma 10149 18104 35.92% 64.08%

Pittsburg Oklahoma 6603 10821 37.90% 62.10%

Pontotoc Oklahoma 4924 9171 34.93% 65.07%

Pottawatomie Oklahoma 8340 16559 33.50% 66.50%

Pushmataha Oklahoma 1644 2898 36.20% 63.80%

Roger Mills Oklahoma 352 1404 20.05% 79.95%

Rogers Oklahoma 11162 24587 31.22% 68.78%

Seminole Oklahoma 3380 5254 39.15% 60.85%

Sequoyah Oklahoma 5155 8631 37.39% 62.61%

Stephens Oklahoma 5292 13358 28.38% 71.62%

Texas Oklahoma 990 5290 15.76% 84.24%

Tillman Oklahoma 1166 2160 35.06% 64.94%

Tulsa Oklahoma 90934 154661 37.03% 62.97%

Wagoner Oklahoma 8798 18768 31.92% 68.08%

Washington Oklahoma 6567 15895 29.24% 70.76%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Washita Oklahoma 1261 3520 26.38% 73.62%

Woods Oklahoma 972 3024 24.32% 75.68%

Woodward Oklahoma 1518 6036 20.10% 79.90%

Baker Oregon 2602 5841 30.82% 69.18%

Benton Oregon 26235 16353 61.60% 38.40%

Clackamas Oregon 92794 85332 52.09% 47.91%

Clatsop Oregon 10032 7540 57.09% 42.91%

Columbia Oregon 12374 10638 53.77% 46.23%

Coos Oregon 13574 16177 45.63% 54.37%

Crook Oregon 3168 6290 33.50% 66.50%

Curry Oregon 4967 6845 42.05% 57.95%

Deschutes Oregon 32456 38356 45.83% 54.17%

Douglas Oregon 18086 32301 35.89% 64.11%

Gilliam Oregon 394 688 36.41% 63.59%

Grant Oregon 836 2987 21.87% 78.13%

Harney Oregon 870 2712 24.29% 75.71%

Hood River Oregon 5536 3642 60.32% 39.68%

Jackson Oregon 43340 50321 46.27% 53.73%

Jefferson Oregon 3298 4378 42.97% 57.03%

Josephine Oregon 15414 23867 39.24% 60.76%

Klamath Oregon 8437 20151 29.51% 70.49%

Lake Oregon 848 2811 23.18% 76.82%

Lane Oregon 100615 65082 60.72% 39.28%

Lincoln Oregon 13216 9108 59.20% 40.80%

Linn Oregon 19999 28311 41.40% 58.60%

Malheur Oregon 2677 7557 26.16% 73.84%

Marion Oregon 55408 60264 47.90% 52.10%

Morrow Oregon 1341 2516 34.77% 65.23%

Multnomah Oregon 247329 83465 74.77% 25.23%

Polk Oregon 15386 17510 46.77% 53.23%

Sherman Oregon 372 663 35.94% 64.06%

Tillamook Oregon 6650 6165 51.89% 48.11%

Umatilla Oregon 8874 15554 36.33% 63.67%

Union Oregon 4321 8062 34.89% 65.11%

Wallowa Oregon 1271 3031 29.54% 70.46%

Wasco Oregon 5501 5474 50.12% 49.88%

Washington Oregon 118135 90856 56.53% 43.47%

Wheeler Oregon 249 555 30.97% 69.03%

Yamhill Oregon 18133 21575 45.67% 54.33%

Adams Pennsylvania 14951 25664 36.81% 63.19%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Allegheny Pennsylvania 360053 262864 57.80% 42.20%

Armstrong Pennsylvania 11249 17628 38.95% 61.05%

Beaver Pennsylvania 40360 39351 50.63% 49.37%

Bedford Pennsylvania 5889 15660 27.33% 72.67%

Berks Pennsylvania 79848 78676 50.37% 49.63%

Blair Pennsylvania 18075 32233 35.93% 64.07%

Bradford Pennsylvania 9156 15532 37.09% 62.91%

Bucks Pennsylvania 163280 145189 52.93% 47.07%

Butler Pennsylvania 29072 51875 35.91% 64.09%

Cambria Pennsylvania 31242 30897 50.28% 49.72%

Cameron Pennsylvania 794 1391 36.34% 63.66%

Carbon Pennsylvania 12389 12027 50.74% 49.26%

Centre Pennsylvania 32625 31070 51.22% 48.78%

Chester Pennsylvania 114869 112148 50.60% 49.40%

Clarion Pennsylvania 6254 10616 37.07% 62.93%

Clearfield Pennsylvania 13197 18624 41.47% 58.53%

Clinton Pennsylvania 6288 19442 24.44% 75.56%

Columbia Pennsylvania 11153 14129 44.11% 55.89%

Crawford Pennsylvania 15253 20075 43.18% 56.82%

Cumberland Pennsylvania 40909 62924 39.40% 60.60%

Dauphin Pennsylvania 59225 59512 49.88% 50.12%

Delaware Pennsylvania 159294 112248 58.66% 41.34%

Elk Pennsylvania 6550 7035 48.21% 51.79%

Erie Pennsylvania 68569 51718 57.00% 43.00%

Fayette Pennsylvania 27300 24204 53.01% 46.99%

Forest Pennsylvania 968 1435 40.28% 59.72%

Franklin Pennsylvania 18193 39820 31.36% 68.64%

Fulton Pennsylvania 1503 4474 25.15% 74.85%

Greene Pennsylvania 7438 7216 50.76% 49.24%

Huntingdon Pennsylvania 6193 11806 34.41% 65.59%

Indiana Pennsylvania 15854 19203 45.22% 54.78%

Jefferson Pennsylvania 6106 12306 33.16% 66.84%

Juniata Pennsylvania 2880 6542 30.57% 69.43%

Lackawanna Pennsylvania 62457 40142 60.87% 39.13%

Lancaster Pennsylvania 80231 129608 38.23% 61.77%

Lawrence Pennsylvania 20315 20880 49.31% 50.69%

Lebanon Pennsylvania 19392 33071 36.96% 63.04%

Lehigh Pennsylvania 75562 63571 54.31% 45.69%

Luzerne Pennsylvania 68970 60174 53.41% 46.59%

Lycoming Pennsylvania 16634 30780 35.08% 64.92%

Page 72: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

McKean Pennsylvania 6190 9894 38.49% 61.51%

Mercer Pennsylvania 24661 24929 49.73% 50.27%

Mifflin Pennsylvania 5088 10844 31.94% 68.06%

Monroe Pennsylvania 30489 26001 53.97% 46.03%

Montgomery Pennsylvania 224455 163399 57.87% 42.13%

Montour Pennsylvania 2900 4539 38.98% 61.02%

Northampton Pennsylvania 66262 57167 53.68% 46.32%

Northumberland Pennsylvania 13930 19458 41.72% 58.28%

Perry Pennsylvania 5504 12653 30.31% 69.69%

Philadelphia Pennsylvania 534543 115888 82.18% 17.82%

Pike Pennsylvania 9602 11759 44.95% 55.05%

Potter Pennsylvania 2221 5214 29.87% 70.13%

Schuylkill Pennsylvania 28097 33481 45.63% 54.37%

Snyder Pennsylvania 4624 9912 31.81% 68.19%

Somerset Pennsylvania 12665 22050 36.48% 63.52%

Sullivan Pennsylvania 1187 1932 38.06% 61.94%

Susquehanna Pennsylvania 7586 10819 41.22% 58.78%

Tioga Pennsylvania 5510 10833 33.71% 66.29%

Union Pennsylvania 6091 9717 38.53% 61.47%

Venango Pennsylvania 8700 13108 39.89% 60.11%

Warren Pennsylvania 7914 9710 44.90% 55.10%

Washington Pennsylvania 45749 45857 49.94% 50.06%

Wayne Pennsylvania 8586 12668 40.40% 59.60%

Westmoreland Pennsylvania 72547 94347 43.47% 56.53%

Wyoming Pennsylvania 5133 7018 42.24% 57.76%

York Pennsylvania 69112 105287 39.63% 60.37%

Bristol Rhode Island 14971 9259 61.79% 38.21%

Kent Rhode Island 45360 31839 58.76% 41.24%

Newport Rhode Island 23599 15684 60.07% 39.93%

Providence Rhode Island 154238 77061 66.68% 33.32%

Washington Rhode Island 35489 24949 58.72% 41.28%

Abbeville South Carolina 4341 5585 43.73% 56.27%

Aiken South Carolina 21847 39448 35.64% 64.36%

Allendale South Carolina 2721 964 73.84% 26.16%

Anderson South Carolina 21981 44053 33.29% 66.71%

Bamberg South Carolina 4014 2194 64.66% 35.34%

Barnwell South Carolina 4332 4660 48.18% 51.82%

Beaufort South Carolina 24549 33580 42.23% 57.77%

Berkeley South Carolina 22984 32303 41.57% 58.43%

Calhoun South Carolina 3576 3506 50.49% 49.51%

Page 73: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Charleston South Carolina 68826 67270 50.57% 49.43%

Cherokee South Carolina 6726 12143 35.65% 64.35%

Chester South Carolina 6386 5831 52.27% 47.73%

Chesterfield South Carolina 7086 7510 48.55% 51.45%

Clarendon South Carolina 7550 6176 55.01% 44.99%

Colleton South Carolina 7495 7714 49.28% 50.72%

Darlington South Carolina 12668 13445 48.51% 51.49%

Dillon South Carolina 5999 4928 54.90% 45.10%

Dorchester South Carolina 17307 26578 39.44% 60.56%

Edgefield South Carolina 4484 5743 43.84% 56.16%

Fairfield South Carolina 6465 3585 64.33% 35.67%

Florence South Carolina 23410 27763 45.75% 54.25%

Georgetown South Carolina 11944 13561 46.83% 53.17%

Greenville South Carolina 59689 109480 35.28% 64.72%

Greenwood South Carolina 10281 15018 40.64% 59.36%

Hampton South Carolina 5284 3183 62.41% 37.59%

Horry South Carolina 33598 54486 38.14% 61.86%

Jasper South Carolina 4485 3010 59.84% 40.16%

Kershaw South Carolina 9478 14685 39.23% 60.77%

Lancaster South Carolina 9890 14207 41.04% 58.96%

Laurens South Carolina 9530 14326 39.95% 60.05%

Lee South Carolina 5169 2928 63.84% 36.16%

Lexington South Carolina 28314 68537 29.23% 70.77%

Marion South Carolina 8494 5312 61.52% 38.48%

Marlboro South Carolina 5805 3517 62.27% 37.73%

McCormick South Carolina 2528 2260 52.80% 47.20%

Newberry South Carolina 5460 8490 39.14% 60.86%

Oconee South Carolina 8695 19091 31.29% 68.71%

Orangeburg South Carolina 24750 12429 66.57% 33.43%

Pickens South Carolina 10609 29872 26.21% 73.79%

Richland South Carolina 86319 55528 60.85% 39.15%

Saluda South Carolina 3073 4730 39.38% 60.62%

Spartanburg South Carolina 36283 61156 37.24% 62.76%

Sumter South Carolina 20727 17820 53.77% 46.23%

Union South Carolina 5419 6790 44.39% 55.61%

Williamsburg South Carolina 9522 4828 66.36% 33.64%

York South Carolina 29206 46806 38.42% 61.58%

Aurora South Dakota 612 877 41.10% 58.90%

Beadle South Dakota 3415 4407 43.66% 56.34%

Bennett South Dakota 584 709 45.17% 54.83%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Bon Homme South Dakota 1297 1871 40.94% 59.06%

Brookings South Dakota 6028 6793 47.02% 52.98%

Brown South Dakota 8260 9061 47.69% 52.31%

Brule South Dakota 957 1422 40.23% 59.77%

Buffalo South Dakota 460 175 72.44% 27.56%

Butte South Dakota 1103 2921 27.41% 72.59%

Campbell South Dakota 220 663 24.92% 75.08%

Charles Mix South Dakota 1809 2276 44.28% 55.72%

Clark South Dakota 836 1234 40.39% 59.61%

Clay South Dakota 3384 2443 58.07% 41.93%

Codington South Dakota 5019 6918 42.05% 57.95%

Corson South Dakota 818 618 56.96% 43.04%

Custer South Dakota 1292 2821 31.41% 68.59%

Davison South Dakota 3320 4944 40.17% 59.83%

Day South Dakota 1731 1527 53.13% 46.87%

Deuel South Dakota 995 1229 44.74% 55.26%

Dewey South Dakota 1320 769 63.19% 36.81%

Douglas South Dakota 400 1398 22.25% 77.75%

Edmunds South Dakota 769 1296 37.24% 62.76%

Fall River South Dakota 1287 2333 35.55% 64.45%

Faulk South Dakota 415 844 32.96% 67.04%

Grant South Dakota 1666 2161 43.53% 56.47%

Gregory South Dakota 773 1525 33.64% 66.36%

Haakon South Dakota 192 961 16.65% 83.35%

Hamlin South Dakota 1007 1771 36.25% 63.75%

Hand South Dakota 667 1363 32.86% 67.14%

Hanson South Dakota 777 1303 37.36% 62.64%

Harding South Dakota 106 635 14.30% 85.70%

Hughes South Dakota 2740 5513 33.20% 66.80%

Hutchinson South Dakota 1178 2537 31.71% 68.29%

Hyde South Dakota 235 585 28.66% 71.34%

Jackson South Dakota 434 692 38.54% 61.46%

Jerauld South Dakota 502 622 44.66% 55.34%

Jones South Dakota 140 507 21.64% 78.36%

Kingsbury South Dakota 1188 1597 42.66% 57.34%

Lake South Dakota 2702 3055 46.93% 53.07%

Lawrence South Dakota 4099 6919 37.20% 62.80%

Lincoln South Dakota 6596 10421 38.76% 61.24%

Lyman South Dakota 713 935 43.26% 56.74%

Marshall South Dakota 1135 1058 51.76% 48.24%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

McCook South Dakota 1157 1761 39.65% 60.35%

McPherson South Dakota 385 1038 27.06% 72.94%

Meade South Dakota 3150 7649 29.17% 70.83%

Mellette South Dakota 335 492 40.51% 59.49%

Miner South Dakota 599 687 46.58% 53.42%

Minnehaha South Dakota 34483 39599 46.55% 53.45%

Moody South Dakota 1568 1569 49.98% 50.02%

Pennington South Dakota 15115 27743 35.27% 64.73%

Perkins South Dakota 427 1208 26.12% 73.88%

Potter South Dakota 448 1045 30.01% 69.99%

Roberts South Dakota 2408 2087 53.57% 46.43%

Sanborn South Dakota 520 739 41.30% 58.70%

Shannon South Dakota 2878 378 88.39% 11.61%

Spink South Dakota 1465 1926 43.20% 56.80%

Stanley South Dakota 471 1041 31.15% 68.85%

Sully South Dakota 217 633 25.53% 74.47%

Todd South Dakota 2050 656 75.76% 24.24%

Tripp South Dakota 908 1994 31.29% 68.71%

Turner South Dakota 1610 2714 37.23% 62.77%

Union South Dakota 2965 3970 42.75% 57.25%

Walworth South Dakota 863 1788 32.55% 67.45%

Yankton South Dakota 4361 5330 45.00% 55.00%

Ziebach South Dakota 530 373 58.69% 41.31%

Anderson Tennessee 12371 18151 40.53% 59.47%

Bedford Tennessee 5353 8637 38.26% 61.74%

Benton Tennessee 3287 3248 50.30% 49.70%

Bledsoe Tennessee 1707 2886 37.17% 62.83%

Blount Tennessee 15058 32498 31.66% 68.34%

Bradley Tennessee 9249 25720 26.45% 73.55%

Campbell Tennessee 5215 7698 40.39% 59.61%

Cannon Tennessee 2331 2880 44.73% 55.27%

Carroll Tennessee 4623 6729 40.72% 59.28%

Carter Tennessee 6109 14991 28.95% 71.05%

Cheatham Tennessee 5763 9392 38.03% 61.97%

Chester Tennessee 2032 4175 32.74% 67.26%

Claiborne Tennessee 3566 6454 35.59% 64.41%

Clay Tennessee 1542 1620 48.77% 51.23%

Cocke Tennessee 3657 8116 31.06% 68.94%

Coffee Tennessee 7859 11770 40.04% 59.96%

Crockett Tennessee 2229 3342 40.01% 59.99%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Cumberland Tennessee 7981 15240 34.37% 65.63%

Davidson Tennessee 141262 100284 58.48% 41.52%

De Kalb Tennessee 3244 3580 47.54% 52.46%

Decatur Tennessee 1958 2688 42.14% 57.86%

Dickson Tennessee 8052 10269 43.95% 56.05%

Dyer Tennessee 4928 8593 36.45% 63.55%

Fayette Tennessee 6079 9814 38.25% 61.75%

Fentress Tennessee 2166 4319 33.40% 66.60%

Franklin Tennessee 7277 9191 44.19% 55.81%

Gibson Tennessee 8054 11380 41.44% 58.56%

Giles Tennessee 5037 6095 45.25% 54.75%

Grainger Tennessee 2299 4822 32.28% 67.72%

Greene Tennessee 7461 15869 31.98% 68.02%

Grundy Tennessee 2465 2186 53.00% 47.00%

Hamblen Tennessee 7183 14431 33.23% 66.77%

Hamilton Tennessee 59127 77279 43.35% 56.65%

Hancock Tennessee 681 1589 30.00% 70.00%

Hardeman Tennessee 5626 4719 54.38% 45.62%

Hardin Tennessee 3350 6274 34.81% 65.19%

Hawkins Tennessee 6364 13278 32.40% 67.60%

Haywood Tennessee 4491 3021 59.78% 40.22%

Henderson Tennessee 3196 6749 32.14% 67.86%

Henry Tennessee 5554 7404 42.86% 57.14%

Hickman Tennessee 3947 4227 48.29% 51.71%

Houston Tennessee 1917 1415 57.53% 42.47%

Humphreys Tennessee 4029 3314 54.87% 45.13%

Jackson Tennessee 2722 1954 58.21% 41.79%

Jefferson Tennessee 5285 11617 31.27% 68.73%

Johnson Tennessee 1823 4429 29.16% 70.84%

Knox Tennessee 65741 105055 38.49% 61.51%

Lake Tennessee 1648 1388 54.28% 45.72%

Lauderdale Tennessee 4351 4320 50.18% 49.82%

Lawrence Tennessee 5967 9707 38.07% 61.93%

Lewis Tennessee 2039 2704 42.99% 57.01%

Lincoln Tennessee 4282 7918 35.10% 64.90%

Loudon Tennessee 5907 13991 29.69% 70.31%

Macon Tennessee 2508 4591 35.33% 64.67%

Madison Tennessee 18101 21546 45.66% 54.34%

Marion Tennessee 5061 5986 45.81% 54.19%

Marshall Tennessee 4628 5856 44.14% 55.86%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Maury Tennessee 12402 17500 41.48% 58.52%

McMinn Tennessee 5790 12021 32.51% 67.49%

McNairy Tennessee 3648 6188 37.09% 62.91%

Meigs Tennessee 1487 2475 37.53% 62.47%

Monroe Tennessee 5212 10145 33.94% 66.06%

Montgomery Tennessee 22295 27315 44.94% 55.06%

Moore Tennessee 999 1704 36.96% 63.04%

Morgan Tennessee 2499 4262 36.96% 63.04%

Obion Tennessee 5110 7934 39.18% 60.82%

Overton Tennessee 4027 3950 50.48% 49.52%

Perry Tennessee 1484 1476 50.14% 49.86%

Pickett Tennessee 933 1612 36.66% 63.34%

Polk Tennessee 2424 3850 38.64% 61.36%

Putnam Tennessee 10245 15311 40.09% 59.91%

Rhea Tennessee 3340 7315 31.35% 68.65%

Roane Tennessee 8240 14296 36.56% 63.44%

Robertson Tennessee 9707 15217 38.95% 61.05%

Rutherford Tennessee 34590 51432 40.21% 59.79%

Scott Tennessee 2452 4490 35.32% 64.68%

Sequatchie Tennessee 1791 3068 36.86% 63.14%

Sevier Tennessee 8519 22173 27.76% 72.24%

Shelby Tennessee 225977 146822 60.62% 39.38%

Smith Tennessee 3762 3803 49.73% 50.27%

Stewart Tennessee 2689 2611 50.74% 49.26%

Sullivan Tennessee 19445 41537 31.89% 68.11%

Sumner Tennessee 21617 39504 35.37% 64.63%

Tipton Tennessee 7376 14570 33.61% 66.39%

Trousdale Tennessee 1709 1399 54.99% 45.01%

Unicoi Tennessee 2298 4615 33.24% 66.76%

Union Tennessee 2224 4075 35.31% 64.69%

Van Buren Tennessee 1059 1136 48.25% 51.75%

Warren Tennessee 6360 7538 45.76% 54.24%

Washington Tennessee 15327 29247 34.39% 65.61%

Wayne Tennessee 1666 3893 29.97% 70.03%

Weakley Tennessee 5142 7897 39.44% 60.56%

White Tennessee 3799 5251 41.98% 58.02%

Williamson Tennessee 23800 56614 29.60% 70.40%

Wilson Tennessee 15645 28836 35.17% 64.83%

Anderson Texas 4735 11296 29.54% 70.46%

Andrews Texas 771 3661 17.40% 82.60%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Angelina Texas 9481 18708 33.63% 66.37%

Aransas Texas 2802 6361 30.58% 69.42%

Archer Texas 842 3437 19.68% 80.32%

Armstrong Texas 147 829 15.06% 84.94%

Atascosa Texas 4390 6395 40.70% 59.30%

Austin Texas 2648 8072 24.70% 75.30%

Bailey Texas 586 1700 25.63% 74.37%

Bandera Texas 1895 6640 22.20% 77.80%

Bastrop Texas 10004 12853 43.77% 56.23%

Baylor Texas 466 1236 27.38% 72.62%

Bee Texas 3812 4779 44.37% 55.63%

Bell Texas 31584 48343 39.52% 60.48%

Bexar Texas 233704 244116 48.91% 51.09%

Blanco Texas 1254 3228 27.98% 72.02%

Borden Texas 50 304 14.12% 85.88%

Bosque Texas 1832 5527 24.89% 75.11%

Bowie Texas 11352 22063 33.97% 66.03%

Brazoria Texas 31369 63072 33.22% 66.78%

Brazos Texas 17215 36458 32.07% 67.93%

Brewster Texas 1685 1866 47.45% 52.55%

Briscoe Texas 205 601 25.43% 74.57%

Brooks Texas 1796 652 73.37% 26.63%

Brown Texas 2791 11370 19.71% 80.29%

Burleson Texas 2168 4276 33.64% 66.36%

Burnet Texas 4215 11231 27.29% 72.71%

Caldwell Texas 4938 6008 45.11% 54.89%

Calhoun Texas 2680 4102 39.52% 60.48%

Callahan Texas 1091 4366 19.99% 80.01%

Cameron Texas 40225 29619 57.59% 42.41%

Camp Texas 1724 2592 39.94% 60.06%

Carson Texas 449 2441 15.54% 84.46%

Cass Texas 4120 7538 35.34% 64.66%

Castro Texas 691 1649 29.53% 70.47%

Chambers Texas 3042 8806 25.68% 74.32%

Cherokee Texas 4583 11106 29.21% 70.79%

Childress Texas 525 1670 23.92% 76.08%

Clay Texas 1240 3888 24.18% 75.82%

Cochran Texas 286 802 26.29% 73.71%

Coke Texas 300 1255 19.29% 80.71%

Coleman Texas 735 2947 19.96% 80.04%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Collin Texas 80601 168459 32.36% 67.64%

Collingsworth Texas 340 1034 24.75% 75.25%

Colorado Texas 2328 5494 29.76% 70.24%

Comal Texas 10131 31637 24.26% 75.74%

Comanche Texas 1436 3704 27.94% 72.06%

Concho Texas 264 844 23.83% 76.17%

Cooke Texas 3104 11496 21.26% 78.74%

Coryell Texas 5644 11561 32.80% 67.20%

Cottle Texas 208 521 28.53% 71.47%

Crane Texas 312 1212 20.47% 79.53%

Crockett Texas 489 1077 31.23% 68.77%

Crosby Texas 668 1374 32.71% 67.29%

Culberson Texas 480 346 58.11% 41.89%

Dallam Texas 312 1362 18.64% 81.36%

Dallas Texas 362046 324593 52.73% 47.27%

Dawson Texas 1201 3167 27.50% 72.50%

De Witt Texas 1648 4882 25.24% 74.76%

Deaf Smith Texas 1207 3735 24.42% 75.58%

Delta Texas 632 1439 30.52% 69.48%

Denton Texas 69072 136154 33.66% 66.34%

Dickens Texas 249 727 25.51% 74.49%

Dimmit Texas 2580 1014 71.79% 28.21%

Donley Texas 326 1381 19.10% 80.90%

Duval Texas 3324 1089 75.32% 24.68%

Eastland Texas 1486 5051 22.73% 77.27%

Ector Texas 9007 25895 25.81% 74.19%

Edwards Texas 284 695 29.01% 70.99%

El Paso Texas 104386 64591 61.78% 38.22%

Ellis Texas 13049 34241 27.59% 72.41%

Erath Texas 2916 9755 23.01% 76.99%

Falls Texas 2216 3193 40.97% 59.03%

Fannin Texas 3785 7576 33.32% 66.68%

Fayette Texas 2837 7354 27.84% 72.16%

Fisher Texas 754 1083 41.05% 58.95%

Floyd Texas 635 1877 25.28% 74.72%

Foard Texas 229 325 41.34% 58.66%

Fort Bend Texas 77094 93266 45.25% 54.75%

Franklin Texas 1049 3108 25.23% 74.77%

Freestone Texas 2108 4941 29.90% 70.10%

Frio Texas 2227 1789 55.45% 44.55%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Gaines Texas 652 3282 16.57% 83.43%

Galveston Texas 41997 59116 41.53% 58.47%

Garza Texas 376 1385 21.35% 78.65%

Gillespie Texas 2179 9147 19.24% 80.76%

Glasscock Texas 46 503 8.38% 91.62%

Goliad Texas 1271 2245 36.15% 63.85%

Gonzales Texas 1946 4145 31.95% 68.05%

Gray Texas 1248 6992 15.15% 84.85%

Grayson Texas 13691 29779 31.50% 68.50%

Gregg Texas 12436 28881 30.10% 69.90%

Grimes Texas 2651 5159 33.94% 66.06%

Guadalupe Texas 12419 27847 30.84% 69.16%

Hale Texas 2369 7374 24.31% 75.69%

Hall Texas 387 915 29.72% 70.28%

Hamilton Texas 860 2774 23.67% 76.33%

Hansford Texas 230 1872 10.94% 89.06%

Hardeman Texas 452 1154 28.14% 71.86%

Hardin Texas 4862 15041 24.43% 75.57%

Harris Texas 513175 565895 47.56% 52.44%

Harrison Texas 9131 16159 36.11% 63.89%

Hartley Texas 296 1705 14.79% 85.21%

Haskell Texas 911 1461 38.41% 61.59%

Hays Texas 21863 26655 45.06% 54.94%

Hemphill Texas 237 1324 15.18% 84.82%

Henderson Texas 8276 19676 29.61% 70.39%

Hidalgo Texas 74486 43095 63.35% 36.65%

Hill Texas 3723 8740 29.87% 70.13%

Hockley Texas 1574 5793 21.37% 78.63%

Hood Texas 4924 15864 23.69% 76.31%

Hopkins Texas 3536 8565 29.22% 70.78%

Houston Texas 2782 5737 32.66% 67.34%

Howard Texas 2626 7095 27.01% 72.99%

Hudspeth Texas 376 510 42.44% 57.56%

Hunt Texas 8221 19426 29.74% 70.26%

Hutchinson Texas 1487 7537 16.48% 83.52%

Irion Texas 156 653 19.28% 80.72%

Jack Texas 606 2415 20.06% 79.94%

Jackson Texas 1309 3585 26.75% 73.25%

Jasper Texas 4114 8336 33.04% 66.96%

Jeff Davis Texas 396 744 34.74% 65.26%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Jefferson Texas 45715 42824 51.63% 48.37%

Jim Hogg Texas 1378 586 70.16% 29.84%

Jim Wells Texas 6893 5083 57.56% 42.44%

Johnson Texas 12460 33732 26.97% 73.03%

Jones Texas 1652 4190 28.28% 71.72%

Karnes Texas 1634 2806 36.80% 63.20%

Kaufman Texas 9598 21044 31.32% 68.68%

Kendall Texas 2862 11524 19.89% 80.11%

Kenedy Texas 103 92 52.82% 47.18%

Kent Texas 131 356 26.90% 73.10%

Kerr Texas 4881 16200 23.15% 76.85%

Kimble Texas 332 1447 18.66% 81.34%

King Texas 13 139 8.55% 91.45%

Kinney Texas 570 961 37.23% 62.77%

Kleberg Texas 4846 4812 50.18% 49.82%

Knox Texas 454 1009 31.03% 68.97%

La Salle Texas 1158 809 58.87% 41.13%

Lamar Texas 5342 11941 30.91% 69.09%

Lamb Texas 1047 3390 23.60% 76.40%

Lampasas Texas 1722 5314 24.47% 75.53%

Lavaca Texas 2030 5960 25.41% 74.59%

Lee Texas 1907 4125 31.61% 68.39%

Leon Texas 1634 5116 24.21% 75.79%

Liberty Texas 6542 14561 31.00% 69.00%

Limestone Texas 2650 4862 35.28% 64.72%

Lipscomb Texas 176 1106 13.73% 86.27%

Live Oak Texas 1054 3046 25.71% 74.29%

Llano Texas 2229 7048 24.03% 75.97%

Loving Texas 16 79 16.84% 83.16%

Lubbock Texas 25059 65181 27.77% 72.23%

Lynn Texas 565 1580 26.34% 73.66%

Madison Texas 1196 2745 30.35% 69.65%

Marion Texas 1770 2407 42.37% 57.63%

Martin Texas 328 1460 18.34% 81.66%

Mason Texas 488 1520 24.30% 75.70%

Matagorda Texas 5465 9693 36.05% 63.95%

Maverick Texas 7117 3069 69.87% 30.13%

McCulloch Texas 748 2291 24.61% 75.39%

McLennan Texas 27449 48911 35.95% 64.05%

McMullen Texas 107 413 20.58% 79.42%

Page 82: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Medina Texas 4610 9996 31.56% 68.44%

Menard Texas 316 713 30.71% 69.29%

Midland Texas 8641 35258 19.68% 80.32%

Milam Texas 3261 5127 38.88% 61.12%

Mills Texas 437 1763 19.86% 80.14%

Mitchell Texas 659 1823 26.55% 73.45%

Montague Texas 1858 5841 24.13% 75.87%

Montgomery Texas 30953 105926 22.61% 77.39%

Moore Texas 1067 4370 19.62% 80.38%

Morris Texas 2271 2872 44.16% 55.84%

Motley Texas 94 534 14.97% 85.03%

Nacogdoches Texas 7493 14231 34.49% 65.51%

Navarro Texas 5345 10230 34.32% 65.68%

Newton Texas 2172 3120 41.04% 58.96%

Nolan Texas 1606 3531 31.26% 68.74%

Nueces Texas 46140 54105 46.03% 53.97%

Ochiltree Texas 247 2838 8.01% 91.99%

Oldham Texas 105 752 12.25% 87.75%

Orange Texas 9865 20174 32.84% 67.16%

Palo Pinto Texas 2774 6872 28.76% 71.24%

Panola Texas 2804 7038 28.49% 71.51%

Parker Texas 9597 32141 22.99% 77.01%

Parmer Texas 549 2617 17.34% 82.66%

Pecos Texas 1412 2758 33.86% 66.14%

Polk Texas 6612 13293 33.22% 66.78%

Potter Texas 8075 20269 28.49% 71.51%

Presidio Texas 1178 593 66.52% 33.48%

Rains Texas 1139 2846 28.58% 71.42%

Randall Texas 8423 39665 17.52% 82.48%

Reagan Texas 212 885 19.33% 80.67%

Real Texas 345 1242 21.74% 78.26%

Red River Texas 1876 3318 36.12% 63.88%

Reeves Texas 1663 1517 52.30% 47.70%

Refugio Texas 1285 1943 39.81% 60.19%

Roberts Texas 50 471 9.60% 90.40%

Robertson Texas 2911 3701 44.03% 55.97%

Rockwall Texas 6346 20074 24.02% 75.98%

Runnels Texas 799 3137 20.30% 79.70%

Rusk Texas 4923 13106 27.31% 72.69%

Sabine Texas 1360 3326 29.02% 70.98%

Page 83: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

San Augustine Texas 1455 2254 39.23% 60.77%

San Jacinto Texas 2760 5559 33.18% 66.82%

San Patricio Texas 8260 12353 40.07% 59.93%

San Saba Texas 530 1870 22.08% 77.92%

Schleicher Texas 322 952 25.27% 74.73%

Scurry Texas 1076 4389 19.69% 80.31%

Shackelford Texas 227 1238 15.49% 84.51%

Shelby Texas 2832 6309 30.98% 69.02%

Sherman Texas 108 755 12.51% 87.49%

Smith Texas 20818 51866 28.64% 71.36%

Somervell Texas 799 2560 23.79% 76.21%

Starr Texas 7504 1937 79.48% 20.52%

Stephens Texas 693 2748 20.14% 79.86%

Sterling Texas 96 528 15.38% 84.62%

Stonewall Texas 240 509 32.04% 67.96%

Sutton Texas 367 1156 24.10% 75.90%

Swisher Texas 760 1599 32.22% 67.78%

Tarrant Texas 229531 334844 40.67% 59.33%

Taylor Texas 11509 34673 24.92% 75.08%

Terrell Texas 184 300 38.02% 61.98%

Terry Texas 1124 2974 27.43% 72.57%

Throckmorton Texas 192 652 22.75% 77.25%

Titus Texas 3122 5690 35.43% 64.57%

Tom Green Texas 9985 26981 27.01% 72.99%

Travis Texas 206208 141423 59.32% 40.68%

Trinity Texas 2066 3834 35.02% 64.98%

Tyler Texas 2463 5126 32.45% 67.55%

Upshur Texas 3273 7897 29.30% 70.70%

Upton Texas 249 954 20.70% 79.30%

Uvalde Texas 3694 4833 43.32% 56.68%

Val Verde Texas 5812 6262 48.14% 51.86%

Van Zandt Texas 4774 14734 24.47% 75.53%

Victoria Texas 9036 19967 31.16% 68.84%

Walker Texas 6345 11080 36.41% 63.59%

Waller Texas 6328 7485 45.81% 54.19%

Ward Texas 979 2700 26.61% 73.39%

Washington Texas 3587 9641 27.12% 72.88%

Webb Texas 26771 14651 64.63% 35.37%

Wharton Texas 4836 9165 34.54% 65.46%

Wheeler Texas 408 1902 17.66% 82.34%

Page 84: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Wichita Texas 13554 31079 30.37% 69.63%

Wilbarger Texas 1261 3383 27.15% 72.85%

Willacy Texas 3140 1780 63.82% 36.18%

Williamson Texas 50213 81298 38.18% 61.82%

Wilson Texas 4740 9981 32.20% 67.80%

Winkler Texas 466 1540 23.23% 76.77%

Wise Texas 4654 14652 24.11% 75.89%

Wood Texas 3986 12518 24.15% 75.85%

Yoakum Texas 443 2051 17.76% 82.24%

Young Texas 1492 5713 20.71% 79.29%

Zapata Texas 1780 1029 63.37% 36.63%

Zavala Texas 2809 691 80.26% 19.74%

Beaver Utah 525 1884 21.79% 78.21%

Box Elder Utah 2685 14354 15.76% 84.24%

Cache Utah 7632 28944 20.87% 79.13%

Carbon Utah 3368 4245 44.24% 55.76%

Daggett Utah 116 328 26.13% 73.87%

Davis Utah 23966 75620 24.07% 75.93%

Duchesne Utah 818 4426 15.60% 84.40%

Emery Utah 919 3465 20.96% 79.04%

Garfield Utah 306 1737 14.98% 85.02%

Grand Utah 1757 1909 47.93% 52.07%

Iron Utah 2521 11756 17.66% 82.34%

Juab Utah 664 2520 20.85% 79.15%

Kane Utah 656 2281 22.34% 77.66%

Millard Utah 689 3801 15.35% 84.65%

Morgan Utah 580 3079 15.85% 84.15%

Piute Utah 133 637 17.27% 82.73%

Rich Utah 139 839 14.21% 85.79%

Salt Lake Utah 141087 182741 43.57% 56.43%

San Juan Utah 2076 2744 43.07% 56.93%

Sanpete Utah 1309 6302 17.20% 82.80%

Sevier Utah 1126 6245 15.28% 84.72%

Summit Utah 7434 6990 51.54% 48.46%

Tooele Utah 4643 10329 31.01% 68.99%

Uintah Utah 1356 7941 14.59% 85.41%

Utah Utah 21118 114045 15.62% 84.38%

Wasatch Utah 2198 5026 30.43% 69.57%

Washington Utah 7830 32471 19.43% 80.57%

Wayne Utah 286 979 22.61% 77.39%

Page 85: using model builder to forecast election results -

COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Weber Utah 21720 45012 32.55% 67.45%

Addison Vermont 10826 6030 64.23% 35.77%

Bennington Vermont 11260 6876 62.09% 37.91%

Caledonia Vermont 7144 5863 54.92% 45.08%

Chittenden Vermont 44663 23357 65.66% 34.34%

Essex Vermont 1411 1404 50.12% 49.88%

Franklin Vermont 10030 7381 57.61% 42.39%

Grand Isle Vermont 2354 1591 59.67% 40.33%

Lamoille Vermont 7291 3780 65.86% 34.14%

Orange Vermont 8340 5800 58.98% 41.02%

Orleans Vermont 6534 4963 56.83% 43.17%

Rutland Vermont 14812 11790 55.68% 44.32%

Washington Vermont 18746 10059 65.08% 34.92%

Windham Vermont 14925 6503 69.65% 30.35%

Windsor Vermont 17663 9759 64.41% 35.59%

Accomack Virginia 6391 7438 46.21% 53.79%

Albemarle Virginia 24216 20273 54.43% 45.57%

Alexandria Virginia 43586 19353 69.25% 30.75%

Alleghany Virginia 3139 3596 46.61% 53.39%

Amelia Virginia 2116 3586 37.11% 62.89%

Amherst Virginia 5400 7830 40.82% 59.18%

Appomattox Virginia 2378 4446 34.85% 65.15%

Arlington Virginia 67606 29502 69.62% 30.38%

Augusta Virginia 8183 21585 27.49% 72.51%

Bath Virginia 922 1368 40.26% 59.74%

Bedford Virginia 9744 21989 30.71% 69.29%

Bedford City Virginia 1124 1438 43.87% 56.13%

Bland Virginia 855 1948 30.50% 69.50%

Botetourt Virginia 5159 10690 32.55% 67.45%

Bristol Virginia 2572 4237 37.77% 62.23%

Brunswick Virginia 4317 2798 60.67% 39.33%

Buchanan Virginia 4841 4380 52.50% 47.50%

Buckingham Virginia 3049 3194 48.84% 51.16%

Buena Vista Virginia 1014 1260 44.59% 55.41%

Campbell Virginia 7363 15975 31.55% 68.45%

Caroline Virginia 5768 5023 53.45% 46.55%

Carroll Virginia 3930 7950 33.08% 66.92%

Charles City Virginia 2420 1218 66.52% 33.48%

Charlotte Virginia 2391 3188 42.86% 57.14%

Charlottesville Virginia 12401 4100 75.15% 24.85%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Chesapeake Virginia 44373 49635 47.20% 52.80%

Chesterfield Virginia 58062 81859 41.50% 58.50%

Clarke Virginia 2917 3594 44.80% 55.20%

Clifton Forge Virginia -584 -641 47.67% 52.33%

Colonial Heights Virginia 2292 6008 27.61% 72.39%

Covington Virginia 1232 1036 54.32% 45.68%

Craig Virginia 879 1673 34.44% 65.56%

Culpeper Virginia 6707 9756 40.74% 59.26%

Cumberland Virginia 1888 2306 45.02% 54.98%

Danville Virginia 10462 8944 53.91% 46.09%

Dickenson Virginia 3589 3368 51.59% 48.41%

Dinwiddie Virginia 5188 6067 46.10% 53.90%

Emporia Virginia 1420 930 60.43% 39.57%

Essex Virginia 2362 2269 51.00% 49.00%

Fairfax Virginia 263495 204884 56.26% 43.74%

Fairfax City Virginia 5688 4823 54.11% 45.89%

Falls Chruch Virginia 4092 2040 66.73% 33.27%

Fauquier Virginia 11910 18095 39.69% 60.31%

Floyd Virginia 2570 4122 38.40% 61.60%

Fluvanna Virginia 4983 6109 44.92% 55.08%

Franklin Virginia 8530 14028 37.81% 62.19%

Franklin City Virginia 2280 1547 59.58% 40.42%

Frederick Virginia 10302 18656 35.58% 64.42%

Fredericksburg Virginia 4811 3285 59.42% 40.58%

Galax Virginia 1018 1288 44.15% 55.85%

Giles Virginia 3102 4217 42.38% 57.62%

Gloucester Virginia 5787 11005 34.46% 65.54%

Goochland Virginia 4044 6815 37.24% 62.76%

Grayson Virginia 2460 4511 35.29% 64.71%

Greene Virginia 2552 4487 36.26% 63.74%

Greensville Virginia 2740 1694 61.80% 38.20%

Halifax Virginia 7010 8328 45.70% 54.30%

Hampton Virginia 37633 21247 63.91% 36.09%

Hanover Virginia 15522 34757 30.87% 69.13%

Harrisonburg Virginia 6102 6019 50.34% 49.66%

Henrico Virginia 69437 67840 50.58% 49.42%

Henry Virginia 10202 13205 43.59% 56.41%

Highland Virginia 537 950 36.11% 63.89%

Hopewell Virginia 4212 4094 50.71% 49.29%

Isle of Wight Virginia 6914 9999 40.88% 59.12%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

James City Virginia 13710 18861 42.09% 57.91%

King and Queen Virginia 1663 1679 49.76% 50.24%

King George Virginia 3361 5123 39.62% 60.38%

King William Virginia 2770 4461 38.31% 61.69%

Lancaster Virginia 2694 3620 42.67% 57.33%

Lee Virginia 3661 5488 40.02% 59.98%

Lexington Virginia 1364 946 59.05% 40.95%

Loudoun Virginia 55791 57707 49.16% 50.84%

Louisa Virginia 5674 7211 44.04% 55.96%

Lunenburg Virginia 2439 2799 46.56% 53.44%

Lynchburg Virginia 13445 15421 46.58% 53.42%

Madison Virginia 2407 3509 40.69% 59.31%

Manassas City Virginia 6365 6575 49.19% 50.81%

Manassas Park City Virginia 1826 1653 52.49% 47.51%

Martinsville Virginia 3529 2442 59.10% 40.90%

Mathews Virginia 1726 3357 33.96% 66.04%

Mecklenburg Virginia 5998 7381 44.83% 55.17%

Middlesex Virginia 2072 3320 38.43% 61.57%

Montgomery Virginia 16660 17256 49.12% 50.88%

Nelson Virginia 3779 3448 52.29% 47.71%

New Kent Virginia 2823 5517 33.85% 66.15%

Newport News Virginia 41489 29478 58.46% 41.54%

Norfolk Virginia 48095 23804 66.89% 33.11%

Northampton Virginia 3134 2606 54.60% 45.40%

Northumberland Virginia 2792 3820 42.23% 57.77%

Norton Virginia 765 729 51.20% 48.80%

Nottoway Virginia 2942 3294 47.18% 52.82%

Orange Virginia 5747 7695 42.75% 57.25%

Page Virginia 3596 5889 37.91% 62.09%

Patrick Virginia 2638 5365 32.96% 67.04%

Petersburg Virginia 11294 1918 85.48% 14.52%

Pittsylvania Virginia 9899 17515 36.11% 63.89%

Poquoson City Virginia 1573 4941 24.15% 75.85%

Portsmouth Virginia 27355 14092 66.00% 34.00%

Powhatan Virginia 3522 8984 28.16% 71.84%

Prince Edward Virginia 4127 3760 52.33% 47.67%

Prince George Virginia 5787 8062 41.79% 58.21%

Prince William Virginia 71872 65029 52.50% 47.50%

Pulaski Virginia 5568 8435 39.76% 60.24%

Radford Virginia 2509 2416 50.94% 49.06%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Rappahannock Virginia 1873 2125 46.85% 53.15%

Richmond Virginia 1373 2020 40.47% 59.53%

Richmond City Virginia 59406 19925 74.88% 25.12%

Roanoke Virginia 17753 29506 37.57% 62.43%

Roanoke City Virginia 21350 15645 57.71% 42.29%

Rockbridge Virginia 3797 5356 41.48% 58.52%

Rockingham Virginia 8367 21116 28.38% 71.62%

Russell Virginia 5123 5991 46.10% 53.90%

Salem Virginia 4679 6897 40.42% 59.58%

Scott Virginia 3108 6492 32.38% 67.63%

Shenandoah Virginia 5779 11412 33.62% 66.38%

Smyth Virginia 4340 7572 36.43% 63.57%

South Boston Virginia 1 1 50.00% 50.00%

Southampton Virginia 3847 4108 48.36% 51.64%

Spotsylvania Virginia 19596 26833 42.21% 57.79%

Stafford Virginia 19964 27094 42.42% 57.58%

Staunton Virginia 4465 5387 45.32% 54.68%

Suffolk Virginia 17730 16481 51.83% 48.17%

Surry Virginia 2228 1545 59.05% 40.95%

Sussex Virginia 2720 1918 58.65% 41.35%

Tazewell Virginia 6488 10248 38.77% 61.23%

Virginia Beach Virginia 81287 97599 45.44% 54.56%

Warren Virginia 5815 8221 41.43% 58.57%

Washington Virginia 7707 14743 34.33% 65.67%

Waynesboro Virginia 3275 4745 40.84% 59.16%

Westmoreland Virginia 3807 3449 52.47% 47.53%

Williamsburg Virginia 3045 2129 58.85% 41.15%

Winchester Virginia 4401 4820 47.73% 52.27%

Wise Virginia 5579 8184 40.54% 59.46%

Wythe Virginia 3788 7738 32.86% 67.14%

York Virginia 11430 18683 37.96% 62.04%

Adams Washington 1183 2941 28.69% 71.31%

Asotin Washington 3413 5030 40.42% 59.58%

Benton Washington 19275 36084 34.82% 65.18%

Chelan Washington 10325 16132 39.03% 60.97%

Clallam Washington 14406 14648 49.58% 50.42%

Clark Washington 73764 72505 50.43% 49.57%

Columbia Washington 613 1472 29.40% 70.60%

Cowlitz Washington 17001 14342 54.24% 45.76%

Douglas Washington 3671 6910 34.69% 65.31%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Ferry Washington 1223 1902 39.14% 60.86%

Franklin Washington 4916 8957 35.44% 64.56%

Garfield Washington 345 919 27.29% 72.71%

Grant Washington 7751 15769 32.95% 67.05%

Grays Harbor Washington 12854 10223 55.70% 44.30%

Island Washington 16760 16383 50.57% 49.43%

Jefferson Washington 10446 5724 64.60% 35.40%

King Washington 415409 204955 66.96% 33.04%

Kitsap Washington 51454 43734 54.06% 45.94%

Kittitas Washington 6065 7770 43.84% 56.16%

Klickitat Washington 3471 4055 46.12% 53.88%

Lewis Washington 9776 16546 37.14% 62.86%

Lincoln Washington 1643 3481 32.06% 67.94%

Mason Washington 11965 10478 53.31% 46.69%

Okanogan Washington 5171 7564 40.60% 59.40%

Pacific Washington 5404 4216 56.17% 43.83%

Pend Oreille Washington 2248 3392 39.86% 60.14%

Pierce Washington 117053 100402 53.83% 46.17%

San Juan Washington 5726 2775 67.36% 32.64%

Skagit Washington 22075 20814 51.47% 48.53%

Skamania Washington 2380 2439 49.39% 50.61%

Snohomish Washington 126528 96848 56.64% 43.36%

Spokane Washington 76662 86388 47.02% 52.98%

Stevens Washington 5662 9806 36.60% 63.40%

Thurston Washington 57935 40528 58.84% 41.16%

Wahkiakum Washington 971 1043 48.21% 51.79%

Walla Walla Washington 7109 11603 37.99% 62.01%

Whatcom Washington 37552 29647 55.88% 44.12%

Whitman Washington 6523 7257 47.34% 52.66%

Yakima Washington 25197 35516 41.50% 58.50%

Barbour West Virginia 2500 3727 40.15% 59.85%

Berkeley West Virginia 13123 19359 40.40% 59.60%

Boone West Virginia 5588 3974 58.44% 41.56%

Braxton West Virginia 2812 2721 50.82% 49.18%

Brooke West Virginia 4944 4854 50.46% 49.54%

Cabell West Virginia 15553 18919 45.12% 54.88%

Calhoun West Virginia 1103 1444 43.31% 56.69%

Clay West Virginia 1601 1929 45.35% 54.65%

Doddridge West Virginia 764 2202 25.76% 74.24%

Fayette West Virginia 8021 7305 52.34% 47.66%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Gilmer West Virginia 1125 1603 41.24% 58.76%

Grant West Virginia 958 3548 21.26% 78.74%

Greenbrier West Virginia 5750 7577 43.15% 56.85%

Hampshire West Virginia 2597 5001 34.18% 65.82%

Hancock West Virginia 6124 7183 46.02% 53.98%

Hardy West Virginia 1735 3331 34.25% 65.75%

Harrison West Virginia 13298 16454 44.70% 55.30%

Jackson West Virginia 5034 7112 41.45% 58.55%

Jefferson West Virginia 9783 9758 50.06% 49.94%

Kanawha West Virginia 40741 41029 49.82% 50.18%

Lewis West Virginia 2280 4199 35.19% 64.81%

Lincoln West Virginia 3546 3701 48.93% 51.07%

Logan West Virginia 6770 6333 51.67% 48.33%

Marion West Virginia 12108 11328 51.66% 48.34%

Marshall West Virginia 6120 7789 44.00% 56.00%

Mason West Virginia 4881 6077 44.54% 55.46%

McDowell West Virginia 4093 2710 60.16% 39.84%

Mercer West Virginia 8198 12472 39.66% 60.34%

Mineral West Virginia 3567 7345 32.69% 67.31%

Mingo West Virginia 4924 4425 52.67% 47.33%

Monongalia West Virginia 15729 15850 49.81% 50.19%

Monroe West Virginia 2111 3336 38.76% 61.24%

Morgan West Virginia 2390 4271 35.88% 64.12%

Nicholas West Virginia 4670 5097 47.81% 52.19%

Ohio West Virginia 8318 10740 43.65% 56.35%

Pendleton West Virginia 1187 1872 38.80% 61.20%

Pleasants West Virginia 1232 1885 39.53% 60.47%

Pocahontas West Virginia 1517 2062 42.39% 57.61%

Preston West Virginia 3964 7331 35.10% 64.90%

Putnam West Virginia 9042 14742 38.02% 61.98%

Raleigh West Virginia 10889 16685 39.49% 60.51%

Randolph West Virginia 4538 6026 42.96% 57.04%

Ritchie West Virginia 1024 2856 26.39% 73.61%

Roane West Virginia 2503 3156 44.23% 55.77%

Summers West Virginia 2357 2782 45.86% 54.14%

Taylor West Virginia 2497 3555 41.26% 58.74%

Tucker West Virginia 1329 2098 38.78% 61.22%

Tyler West Virginia 1285 2569 33.34% 66.66%

Upshur West Virginia 2914 5820 33.36% 66.64%

Wayne West Virginia 7280 9084 44.49% 55.51%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Webster West Virginia 1733 1515 53.36% 46.64%

Wetzel West Virginia 3040 3413 47.11% 52.89%

Wirt West Virginia 826 1572 34.45% 65.55%

Wood West Virginia 13021 22931 36.22% 63.78%

Wyoming West Virginia 3395 4480 43.11% 56.89%

Adams Wisconsin 5469 4268 56.17% 43.83%

Ashland Wisconsin 5435 2894 65.25% 34.75%

Barron Wisconsin 11250 10846 50.91% 49.09%

Bayfield Wisconsin 5589 3451 61.83% 38.17%

Brown Wisconsin 59107 59260 49.94% 50.06%

Buffalo Wisconsin 3820 3152 54.79% 45.21%

Burnett Wisconsin 4233 4329 49.44% 50.56%

Calumet Wisconsin 11162 12969 46.26% 53.74%

Chippewa Wisconsin 14822 13997 51.43% 48.57%

Clark Wisconsin 6951 7130 49.36% 50.64%

Columbia Wisconsin 14978 13066 53.41% 46.59%

Crawford Wisconsin 4719 3190 59.67% 40.33%

Dane Wisconsin 182115 78889 69.77% 30.23%

Dodge Wisconsin 17327 24114 41.81% 58.19%

Door Wisconsin 8754 7866 52.67% 47.33%

Douglas Wisconsin 15567 7837 66.51% 33.49%

Dunn Wisconsin 11853 9880 54.54% 45.46%

Eau Claire Wisconsin 30104 22175 57.58% 42.42%

Florence Wisconsin 1016 1579 39.15% 60.85%

Fond Du Lac Wisconsin 20871 29510 41.43% 58.57%

Forest Wisconsin 2503 2275 52.39% 47.61%

Grant Wisconsin 13291 10393 56.12% 43.88%

Green Wisconsin 10050 7332 57.82% 42.18%

Green Lake Wisconsin 3712 5765 39.17% 60.83%

Iowa Wisconsin 7262 4461 61.95% 38.05%

Iron Wisconsin 1863 1667 52.78% 47.22%

Jackson Wisconsin 5199 3856 57.42% 42.58%

Jefferson Wisconsin 18886 21568 46.69% 53.31%

Juneau Wisconsin 5740 5554 50.82% 49.18%

Kenosha Wisconsin 40849 32166 55.95% 44.05%

Kewaunee Wisconsin 5386 5169 51.03% 48.97%

La Crosse Wisconsin 34497 25368 57.62% 42.38%

Lafayette Wisconsin 4395 3377 56.55% 43.45%

Langlade Wisconsin 4820 5475 46.82% 53.18%

Lincoln Wisconsin 7717 7063 52.21% 47.79%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Manitowoc Wisconsin 20775 20525 50.30% 49.70%

Marathon Wisconsin 32360 32034 50.25% 49.75%

Marinette Wisconsin 10269 10610 49.18% 50.82%

Marquette Wisconsin 3826 3928 49.34% 50.66%

Menominee Wisconsin 1240 228 84.47% 15.53%

Milwaukee Wisconsin 296142 162015 64.64% 35.36%

Monroe Wisconsin 9172 9132 50.11% 49.89%

Oconto Wisconsin 8870 9506 48.27% 51.73%

Oneida Wisconsin 10632 10176 51.10% 48.90%

Outagamie Wisconsin 43000 42688 50.18% 49.82%

Ozaukee Wisconsin 18387 32851 35.89% 64.11%

Pepin Wisconsin 2073 1698 54.97% 45.03%

Pierce Wisconsin 10825 9612 52.97% 47.03%

Polk Wisconsin 10549 11170 48.57% 51.43%

Portage Wisconsin 22303 14588 60.46% 39.54%

Price Wisconsin 4234 3893 52.10% 47.90%

Racine Wisconsin 49048 47684 50.71% 49.29%

Richland Wisconsin 4607 3988 53.60% 46.40%

Rock Wisconsin 46978 29312 61.58% 38.42%

Rusk Wisconsin 3689 3609 50.55% 49.45%

Sauk Wisconsin 16402 12521 56.71% 43.29%

Sawyer Wisconsin 4328 4399 49.59% 50.41%

Shawano Wisconsin 9045 10341 46.66% 53.34%

Sheboygan Wisconsin 27948 31762 46.81% 53.19%

St. Croix Wisconsin 18496 21016 46.81% 53.19%

Taylor Wisconsin 4026 5072 44.25% 55.75%

Trempealeau Wisconsin 7873 5207 60.19% 39.81%

Vernon Wisconsin 7871 5911 57.11% 42.89%

Vilas Wisconsin 5835 7400 44.09% 55.91%

Walworth Wisconsin 20580 26017 44.17% 55.83%

Washburn Wisconsin 4485 4350 50.76% 49.24%

Washington Wisconsin 22532 47239 32.29% 67.71%

Waukesha Wisconsin 76723 145705 34.49% 65.51%

Waupaca Wisconsin 11306 13590 45.41% 54.59%

Waushara Wisconsin 5302 6098 46.51% 53.49%

Winnebago Wisconsin 42602 40895 51.02% 48.98%

Wood Wisconsin 19505 18187 51.75% 48.25%

Albany Wyoming 7337 8264 47.03% 52.97%

Big Horn Wyoming 1036 4034 20.43% 79.57%

Campbell Wyoming 2586 12184 17.51% 82.49%

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COUNTY STATE Obama Romney % Obama % Romney

Carbon Wyoming 2248 4510 33.26% 66.74%

Converse Wyoming 1247 4542 21.54% 78.46%

Crook Wyoming 519 2773 15.77% 84.23%

Fremont Wyoming 5380 11082 32.68% 67.32%

Goshen Wyoming 1656 3995 29.30% 70.70%

Hot Springs Wyoming 603 1804 25.05% 74.95%

Johnson Wyoming 752 3200 19.03% 80.97%

Laramie Wyoming 14235 24405 36.84% 63.16%

Lincoln Wyoming 1528 6227 19.70% 80.30%

Natrona Wyoming 9864 21000 31.96% 68.04%

Niobrara Wyoming 227 1004 18.44% 81.56%

Park Wyoming 3211 10652 23.16% 76.84%

Platte Wyoming 1346 3030 30.76% 69.24%

Sheridan Wyoming 4073 9621 29.74% 70.26%

Sublette Wyoming 761 3006 20.20% 79.80%

Sweetwater Wyoming 5524 10250 35.02% 64.98%

Teton Wyoming 6205 4950 55.63% 44.37%

Uinta Wyoming 2001 5802 25.64% 74.36%

Washakie Wyoming 927 3078 23.15% 76.85%

Weston Wyoming 586 2637 18.18% 81.82%

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