TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group

March 27, 2008

The “Business” of Politics

The 2008 Election Forecast Update

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Located in Arlington, VA

Providing insights on political ad spending since 1997

Track, analyze and forecast political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising

Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting 

Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communications efforts

TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG

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Elections and the Media Economy

Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast

The political marketplace

The spending drivers

The Forecast by the Numbers

The race for the White House

The House and Senate

State and local

The Role New Media

Not a banner year

Ask Chuck

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:

The Political Marketplace

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The Uniqueness of the Marketplace

Four year business cycle

- Majority of ad spending in final 60 days before an election

Upward growth in ad spending

- Multi-level messaging - Changes to campaign finance laws - More campaigns using TV advertising

Event driven

“The Democrats' project is being considered a new benchmark

in the trend toward ‘permanent campaigns,’ which specialists

said is transforming the political culture.”

- The Boston Globe

The Changing “Business” of Politics:The Political Marketplace

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The Changing “Business” of Politics:Total Spend in Comparison (2002-2006)

$ billions3

1

2

2002 2004 2006

+62% from 2002

+35% from 2004

$1.0 $1.7 $2.6

Total Ad Spend

Total TV Spend

$2.4

$.2

Total All Other Media*

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Drivers

CMAG Forecast: $3 Billion on Campaign Ads

12 percent of total and climbing

Spending Drivers:

Historic presidential race

State and federal races

Well-funded special interest groups

$300-400 million on issue advocacy

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2008 Forecast By The Numbers

PresidentialOther FederalState and Local

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:By the Numbers

Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008

Presidential Race:Candidate $400-460 million $89 million*Party $150-175 million $106,000Groups $100-140 million $14 million

*January-March 18th 2008

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast: By the Numbers

2008 Race for the White House

Primary Overview:

Over $210m on TV since February 2007

Democrats combined spending $106m vs. $57m for the GOP

Majority of “group” spending on issues

Ad spending focused on early states

- $87m spent on TV ads in IA, NH and SC

- Contests by contest focused

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2008 The Democrats:The Strategy

Barack Obama

Spending: $52m on TV - Outspent Clinton in 35 out of 41

states- 41 percent of recent ad spending in

prime timeStrategy: - Go on the air first in key states- Focus buys into population centers- Use local and national surrogates in

some ads- Using niche media to fortify

Hillary Clinton

Spending: $35m on TV

Strategy - Heaviest in the “must win” state - First to use negative ads

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2008 The Republicans: John McCain

Spending:

- $9.5m on TV- Minimal spending post-Florida

Strategy:

- “All in” in New Hampshire- Ride the momentum

Message Strategy:

- Disciplined - Biography and service

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2008 The Others

Candidate

No Bloomberg

Yes Nader

Maybe others?

Groups

$50m in primary

Groups pledged $700m

Typically used for issue awareness

Recent ads more tactical

General election ads beginning from groups on the left

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers

Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008

US Senate:

Candidate $220-250 million $1.8 million

Party $60-100 million $0

IE $10-20 million $100K

US House:

Candidate $200-230 million $10 million

Party $100-160 million $1.3 million

IE $20-50 million $2.4 million

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:By the Numbers

US Senate - Sea of red- GOP on defense- Groups engaged

US House- Historic number of competitive

seats - Retirements adding primaries

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast: By the Numbers

Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008

State and Local

Governors $90-110 million $3.1 million

Ballots $190-230 million $114 million

Judges/AG $50-60 million $3 million

Other $175-250 million $11 million

Issue: $330-400 million $77 million

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast: By the Numbers

Governors

- 11 states holding governor elections

Ballot Measures

- 28 States - Affirmative action, abortion,

healthcare, gaming, gay rights, taxes immigration and unions

- Over $100m in CA on round 1 of 3Issue Ad Spending

- Energy, environment, and telecom

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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:The Perfect Storm States of 2008

TX

CA

NM

CO

IL

IA

MN

FL

WI

MO

MI

PA

IN

NC

VAKY

OH

ME

RI

NH

MT

ID

UT

WY

AL

AR

MS

SC

VT

NJ

DE

AZ

NV

OR

KS

NE

SD

ND

OK

WA

GA

LA

NY

TN

WV

CT

MD

MA

AK

HI

COLD

MEDIUM

HOT

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The Role of the New Media

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Top tier presidential campaigns

Online ads mostly used for fundraising and grassroots

$3-4 million total spent

Top sites – local and national news, ideology, demographic, sports and election

Mistakes and perception

Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:The Role of the Internet in the 2008 Election

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Looking Ahead: 2009

Start of a new political business cycle

Winning strategies will show the way

Make-up of US House and Senate

2008 issues drive 2009 issue ad spending:

Economy

China and NAFTA trade

Healthcare

Energy

Iraq

2010 redistricting

Rethink primary process

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Ask Chuck

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Past, Present, Future