USWRPUSWRPAnalysis or Record SummitAnalysis or Record SummitBreakout Session 1:Breakout Session 1:Analysis RequirementsAnalysis Requirements

Facilitation by David Ruth and John SnookFacilitation by David Ruth and John Snook

June 30, 2004June 30, 2004

USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004

Our ChargeOur Charge

• Identify and prioritize requirements for AORsIdentify and prioritize requirements for AORs– What is absolutely essential at the outset?What is absolutely essential at the outset?– What are the fundamental characteristics to be met in future?What are the fundamental characteristics to be met in future?

USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004

Absolute Essentials at outsetAbsolute Essentials at outset (Target - Dec 04) (Target - Dec 04)

• Resolution and domainResolution and domain– at least 2.5km spatial resolutionat least 2.5km spatial resolution

– at least 1 hour temporal resolutionat least 1 hour temporal resolution

– NDFD grid with some extension (e.g., river basins in Canada)NDFD grid with some extension (e.g., river basins in Canada)

• ContentContent– At least all official NDFD elements as defined by NWS At least all official NDFD elements as defined by NWS

directive 10-506directive 10-506

– Unqualified certainty (i.e., non-probabilistic)Unqualified certainty (i.e., non-probabilistic)

USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004

Absolute Essentials at outsetAbsolute Essentials at outset

• TimelinessTimeliness– Analysis of Moment (AOM) available by 15 minutes past hourAnalysis of Moment (AOM) available by 15 minutes past hour

– Analysis of Record (AOR) available within 24 hoursAnalysis of Record (AOR) available within 24 hours

• Availability (both AOM and AOR)Availability (both AOM and AOR)– To NCEP Service Centers, RFCs, and WFOsTo NCEP Service Centers, RFCs, and WFOs

– To customers and partners along with NDFDTo customers and partners along with NDFD

• ConsistencyConsistency– Both AOM and AOR need to be seamless over NDFD domain Both AOM and AOR need to be seamless over NDFD domain

in time and spacein time and space

– Stable error characteristics pending periodic retrospective Stable error characteristics pending periodic retrospective reanalysesreanalyses

USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004USWRP Analysis of Record Summit June 2004

Fundamental Characteristics Fundamental Characteristics for Futurefor Future

• Retrospective runs at least to 1971Retrospective runs at least to 1971

• Quantify uncertainty of analysis using PDFQuantify uncertainty of analysis using PDF– Addresses average versus extremes issueAddresses average versus extremes issue

• Elements in addition to NDFD (e.g., SLP)Elements in addition to NDFD (e.g., SLP)

• NDFD elements above surfaceNDFD elements above surface

• Subhourly timescale on at least a 1km gridSubhourly timescale on at least a 1km grid