utilizing goes-r fls data to detect the central valley’s deadliest weather phenomenon satellite...
TRANSCRIPT
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Utilizing GOES-R FLS Data toDetect the Central Valley’s
Deadliest Weather PhenomenonSatellite Proving Ground/User Readiness Meeting
June 2014, Kansas City, MO
Paul IñiguezScience & Operations Officer/Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS Hanford, CA
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What’s the problem?
Example of tule fog at the NOAA/NWS Hanford, CA office on 26 Nov 2012. The KHNX radome is roughly 400 ft/120 m away in this image.
View of fog on visible satellite, approximately the same time as the bottom picture.
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Station Name Average Number of Hours with Fog(Visibility < 0.5 mi) Each Winter
KMOD - Modesto, CA 220
KFAT - Fresno, CA 185
KNLC - Lemoore, CA 201
KBFL - Bakersfield, CA 123
Based on 10 years of ASOS data.
Fog in Central California
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Fog in Central California
LIFR <1SMVLIFR <1/2SM
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What’s the problem?
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What’s the problem?
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What’s the problem?
Elev
ation
(m)
ASOS/AWOS
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Where are the high impact areas?
What’s the problem?
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Location of FatalFog-RelatedCar Crashes*
2005-2010
49 Crashes
186 Cars58 Deaths
FYI: No Tornado Deaths in CA History
75% of DeathsDid Not Occuron I-5/Hwy 99
*Does not include car-train collisions
What’s the problem?
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Location of FatalFog-RelatedCar Crashes
2005-2010
60% of Deaths Occurred Within 10 Miles of an
ASOS
Q: What was the ASOSvis when the crashed
occurred?Don’t know (more analysis).
Q: How representative is the ASOS?
Probably not very, fog can show tremendous spatial
discontinuities.
How do we “see” fog?
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…generally, we have a hard time “seeing” it.
How do we “see” fog?
Sensor Level of Use Level of Usefulness Potential
ASOS/AWOS High Medium LowSatellite Medium Medium High
Trained Spotters Low Medium Low
General Public Low Low Medium
Impact Data Low Medium Medium
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How can we “better” “see” fog?
11-3.9µ& FLS
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FLS Training at HNX
• Great Coordination to get Setup!
• VISIT Sessions, Brown Bag (all forecasters)
• Shared Blog Posts
• One-on-One & Frequent Prodding by SOO
• Group Learning Process
• Shared Research Results by SOO
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Obtained hourly FLS data from UW Madison – CIMSS for an area over our CWA. Dates covered 1 November 2012 through 28 February 2013 (2,904 hours).
FLS Satellite Product Verification
Satellite
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Obtained hourly AWOS/ASOS data from NCDC for nine stations in the San Joaquin Valley. Dates covered 1 November 2012 through 28 February 2013 (26,1362 station-hours).
Elev
ation
(m)
FLS Satellite Product Verification
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Daily mean of LIFR conditions, visibility only, at nine stations based on surface observations (frequency, dashed) and FLS (probability, solid). Generally, FLS under-estimate the occurrence of LIFR conditions, significantly in some instances, with an accurate temporal distribution (r=0.86).
FLS Satellite Product Verification
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How has FLS helped NWS Hanford?Overall, the FLS data have been a BIG help to HNX operations.
• Filled in observational gap/provide a tool to ascertain spatial extent of fog.
• Utilized since Fall 2012.Limited use Winter 2013-14, least amount of fog on record!
• Helped with aviation forecasts, allowedforecasters to be more proactive inissuing dense fog advisories.
• Were used extensively whensupporting NASA DISCOVERY-AQmission in the San Joaquin Valleyduring January 2013.
NASA P38 Orion Low Pass at KHNX
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Communicating Fog
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Communicating Fog
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Communicating Fog
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Communicating Fog – Fog Tracker
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FLS
FLS
FLS
FLS
FLS
FLS
FLS
FLS
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
RH
RRR
HRR
R
Fog Tracker
*** IN DEVELOPMENT *** Tule Fog Tracker *** IN DEVELOPMENT ***
Recognizing the need for a tool to clearly communicate to customers where fog currently is and where it is expected to be, NWS Hanford is developing the Tule Fog Tracker. Generated in GFE, data from the GOES-R FLS products are used to depict where fog was/is while the latest forecast from the HRRR is used to show where fog will be. Data from the Tracker are provided in numerous formats for customer use, including KML, ascii grid, and PNG images. NWS forecasters utilize the Tracker to generate official Dense Fog Advisories.
Now
Communicating Fog – NWS Fog Tracker
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Communicating Fog – NWS Fog Tracker
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Yes!
• Supplied training augmented with local efforts were adequate for staff preparation.
• In HNX evaluations, FLS under forecast fog. (Additional calibration needed?)
• Extremely helpful for Situational Awareness when traditional platforms (ASOS) did not capture event(s).
• Further study needed on incorporating this data set with existing platforms .
• Operational improvement in temporal resolution will be of great value.
• Addition of a level below LIFR is needed (impacts are not common until vis drops below 500’).
Is FLS Ready for Prime Time?
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Utilizing GOES-R FLS Data toDetect the Central Valley’s
Deadliest Weather PhenomenonSatellite Proving Ground/User Readiness Meeting
June 2014, Kansas City, MO
Paul IñiguezScience & Operations Officer/Meteorologist
NOAA/NWS Hanford, CA
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NWS Hanford definition is visibility <1/4 mi (1300 ft).
California Highway Patrol paces traffic at 500 ft or less.
Area schools delay at 200-300 ft.
What is dense fog?
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Fog in Central California
LIFR <1SMVLIFR <1/2SM
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Fog in Central California
LIFR <1SMVLIFR <1/2SM
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Temporal Distribution of Fog-RelatedCrashes in NWS Hanford Forecast Area
2005-2010
Local Time
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Amount of Time (sec) Needed By Vehicle to Travel Visibility
Speed and Visibility 2 miles 1 mi 1/2 mi
2640'1/4 mi
1320'1/8 mi
660'200'
20 360.0 180.0 90.0 45.0 22.5 6.8
30 240.0 120.0 60.0 30.0 15.0 4.5
40 180.0 90.0 45.0 22.5 11.3 3.4
50 144.0 72.0 36.0 18.0 9.0 2.7
60 120.0 60.0 30.0 15.0 7.5 2.3
70 102.9 51.4 25.7 12.9 6.4 1.9
http://www.monash.edu.au/miri/research/reports/other/hfr12.pdfhttp://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/HWY/ACCESSMGT/docs/stopdist.pdfhttp://onlinemanuals.txdot.gov/txdotmanuals/rdw/sight_distance.htm
Driving in The Fog – What Can I See?
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Stopping Sight
Distance
Perception-Reaction Time,Vehicle Operating Speed,
Braking Distance= f( )
Driving in The Fog – How Fast Can I Stop?
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SpeedSSD
Feet Time
20 112 3.8
30 197 4.5
40 301 5.1
50 423 5.8
60 566 6.4
70 728 7.1
Driving in The Fog – How Fast Can I Stop?
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Speed and Visibility 2 miles 1 mi 1/2 mi
2640'1/4 mi
1320'1/8 mi
660'200'
20 360.0 180.0 86.2 41.2 18.7 3.0
30 240.0 120.0 55.5 26.5 10.5 0.0
40 180.0 90.0 39.9 17.4 6.2 -1.7
50 144.0 72.0 30.2 12.2 3.2 -3.1
60 120.0 60.0 23.6 8.6 1.1 -4.1
70 102.9 51.4 18.6 5.8 -0.7 -5.2
Driving In The Fog - What Can I Spare?Visibility - Stopping Sight Distance = Spare Time
Accounts for 90-95% of situations.
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Satellite
FLS Satellite Product Verification
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http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/
Forecasting Fog – High-Res ModelsHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, 3km, Hourly
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Will be verifying HRRR forecast from 1 November 2012 through 28 February 2013.
Forecasting Fog – High-Res ModelsHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, 3km, Hourly