v1.2 Major Changes

Major Economic Data Sources BEA Local Area Personal Income and Employment

county data (2001-2008), 04/22/2010 release. Estimates of detailed employment and wage data for

the states of Michigan and Nevada (2001-2008) was provided by Don Grimes of the University of Michigan.

BEA State Personal Income and Employment state and national data (1990-2008), 03/25/2010 release.

BLS Employment Projections national data (1993-2008 and 2018), 12/11/2009 release.

RSQE national forecast (2009-2012), 06/16/2010 release.

Long-term forecast of detailed GDP and Labor Productivity was provided by Don Grimes of the University of Michigan.

Major Demographic Data Sources

BEA Local Area Population county data (1990-2008), 04/22/2010 release.

Census Population by age, sex, race, component of change county data (1990-2008).

BLS Labor Force county data (1990-2008). CDC birth rate state data (1990-2006). Census natality rate, survival rate, and net

international migrant national data and forecast (1999-2100).

BLS Participation Rate national data and forecast (1990-2050).

PI+ v1.2 Major Changes Modified 169 level industry list to match the

detail supported by the new BLS input-output table

New Data Suppression Estimation Procedure

New Estimates of Trade Flow Parameters

Data Suppression

Starting values for state-level constrained optimization are now estimated based on the time series and stepwise regression in addition to maximum and minimum bounds.

Constrained optimization procedure incorporated for county-level 23 sector data. Starting values are the mid-point of the maximum and minimum bounds, then a RAS procedure is used to hit column and row targets (industries add up to county total employment as well as industry totals for the state).

Selected Industry and Region Trade Flow Comparisons – Self Supply as Share of Domestic Trade Flows for Counties in Massachusetts

 Wood product

mfg Retail trade Construction Food services

 Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Barnstable 9% 26% 71% 70% 99% 99% 54% 54%Berkshire 4% 10% 69% 62% 84% 89% 79% 81%Bristol 14% 28% 72% 69% 86% 89% 86% 87%Dukes 0% 0% 64% 59% 96% 98% 36% 36%Essex 18% 35% 94% 88% 85% 88% 96% 97%Franklin 2% 4% 86% 69% 83% 89% 90% 92%Hampden 10% 23% 81% 75% 86% 89% 92% 93%Hampshire 4% 9% 78% 66% 84% 90% 78% 80%Middlesex 33% 53% 96% 92% 79% 80% 97% 98%Nantucket 0% 8% 59% 58% 92% 94% 27% 27%Norfolk 21% 37% 89% 82% 64% 65% 92% 93%Plymouth 12% 26% 91% 84% 83% 86% 93% 94%Suffolk 40% 63% 96% 90% 91% 93% 70% 70%Worcester 15% 29% 93% 86% 91% 93% 97% 97%

  Hospitals Motor vehicle mfg Chemical mfg

 Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Previous Estimate

New Estimate

Barnstable 75% 71% 0% 0% 31% 7%Berkshire 43% 40% 3% 8% 13% 4%Bristol 64% 60% 14% 30% 36% 13%Dukes 54% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0%Essex 69% 64% 22% 31% 36% 17%Franklin 70% 58% 0% 0% 10% 2%Hampden 47% 45% 9% 20% 26% 9%Hampshire 63% 54% 0% 0% 11% 3%Middlesex 66% 62% 32% 51% 39% 26%Nantucket 76% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%Norfolk 53% 49% 20% 37% 32% 14%Plymouth 72% 65% 15% 30% 30% 10%Suffolk 12% 11% 26% 45% 50% 24%Worcester 53% 51% 15% 29% 32% 14%

Major Changes, continued Modified State Government Expenditure Predictions

(available in state models) to be based on the average per capita state government demand in the last history year instead of the current year’s state government spending. This change was implemented to offset the relatively large response state government spending has to changes in GDP.

Alternative Model Option for State & Local Government Spending Response to GDP has been added to allow users to change the government spending response to be based on population only, instead of a combination of population and GDP.

Major Changes, continued Addition of Natural Disaster Scenario Integrated and Updated Translator Policy

Variables New Policy Variables for Farm New Map/Diagram View of Model for Policy

Variables and Results Real $ converted from 2000 to 2005 3D Chart option added Updated DevSight Presentation Numerous New Result Variables Added Reduced Memory Requirement

Major Changes, continued New Reports

The first version of a new reporting feature has been added that allows users to select and organize tables and charts into a single PDF document and allows just-in-time previewing by the item or as a group.