© Council on Energy, Environment and Water, 2018

Vaibhav ChaturvediPoonam Nagar KotiAnjali Ramakrishnan Chordia

11th IAMC Annual MeetingSeville, Spain

14th November 2018

CEEW – Among South Asia’s leading policy research institutions

Energy Access Renewables

Low‐Carbon Pathways

Technology, Finance, & Trade

Industrial Sustainability & Competitiveness

Risks & Adaptation

Power Sector

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The Larger Context

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• Nationally Determined Contribution and Mid‐Century Strategy– Together these intend to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement– A lot has changed since October 2015, Could there be scenarios under which NDC 

targets would not be achieved?

• Uncertainties– Lack of literature on key uncertainties for India’s energy and climate policy

• Sustainable Development and National Priorities– Could a stringent climate policy impact sustainable development and national 

priorities?

Research Objectives

• Evolution of electricity generation mix under an uncertain future and implication for progress towards the NDC target of 40% share of non‐fossil sources in electricity generation capacity

• Evolution of long‐term carbon dioxide emissions under an uncertain future and implication for progress towards the NDC target of 33‐35% reduction in emissions intensity of India’s GDP between 2005 and 2030

• Insights for India’s ‘Mid‐Century Strategy’• Aligning India’s climate policy with sustainable development and priorities

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Electricity generation

Emissions and Emissions Intensity

Mid‐Century Strategy and Sustainable Development

Methodological approach: Characterising uncertainties

Defining uncertainty: “any deviation from the unachievable ideal of completely deterministic knowledge of the relevant system” (Walker, 2003) 

• Large bunch of scenarios spanning key uncertainties• Technology cost pathways

– 2 cost pathways each for coal, gas and nuclear – 3 cost pathways each for solar and wind– 72 unique pathways (combination of technology costs) under each economic growth pathways

• Economic growth pathways– 3 economic growth pathways

• 216 unique pathways• 6 additional scenarios for testing uncertainties related to energy  efficiency                           

and energy demand behaviour in end use sectors

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Global Change Assessment Model‐ IIM Ahmedabad version 

• Assumptions based on inputs by experts from MNRE, CEA, and NTPC

• Cost of integration included (though there is no India specific detailed study on this topic)

• Transparency of key assumptions6

RESULTS

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8

1

High GDP Growth Sc

Medium GDP Growth Sc

Low GDP Growth Sc

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Nuclear

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Wind

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Coal

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Gas

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Solar

Elec

tric

ity

Gen

erat

ion

in T

era

Wat

t-H

ours Coal      Gas      Solar     

Nuclear     Wind    

Coal does not peak under any sc

Gas, Nuclear and 

Wind have only limited role to play

Electricity generation technology outlook

Electricity generation technology outlook‐WITHOUT VRE Integration Cost

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Elec

tric

ity

Gen

erat

ion

in T

era

Wat

t-H

ours

1

High GDP Growth Sc

Medium GDP Growth Sc

Low GDP Growth Sc

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Gas

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Solar

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Nuclear

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - Wind

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Generation - CoalCoal      Gas      Solar     

Nuclear     Wind    

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Storyline based scenarios VERSUS Uncertainty Assessment

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Exa‐Joules

Electricity Generation‐High Non‐Fossil Cost Low Fossil Cost Sc

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Exa‐Joules

Electricity Generation‐High Fossil Cost Low Non‐Fossil Cost Sc

Coal

Solar

• Different underlying technology cost assumptions will give us different perspectives ofthe future

• Uncertainty assessment is a key tool for getting robust insights

Is there room for enhancing India’s NDC?

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• Cost of integration appears to be a key uncertainty

• Lack of reform in India’s power sector is going to be a big bottleneck

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

68%

48%

84%

57%

73%

58%

Industrial sector emissions are going to be critical

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• Share of electricity sector and industrial sector in India’s CO2 emissions would be 40% and 32% respectively in 2050, transport only 19%

• Electricity’s share in the industrial sector’s fuel mix is going to be critical,                           currently it is less than 17%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Energy sector carbon

 dioxide

 emission

s in M

tCO2

Electricity Industry+ Transportation Buildings Other

Energy related emissions across sectors in the Reference scenario

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Indu

stry+

Tran

sportation

Buildings

Indu

stry+

Tran

sportation

Buildings

Indu

stry+

Tran

sportation

Buildings

2015 2030 2050

Fuel con

sumption in m

toe

Biomass

Natural Gas

Oil Products

Coal

Electricity

Fuel consumption by end use sector in the Reference scenario

Will 33‐35% EI reduction be achieved under all scenarios?

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• EI of GDP relative to 2005 declines by 48‐54% across all 216 scenarios by 2030, and by 70‐81% by 2050

• Highly sensitive to developments in the industrial sector‐ high energy demand growth (Make In India), lower rate of energy efficiency improvements, and small increase in the share of electricity increases EI of GDP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Index

11%

The pace of transformation required for a 2 DegC consistent pathway is going to be huge

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• Non‐fossil energy capacity increases to 98% in 2050, for a 2 DegC compatible pathway

• The share of electricity in the industrial sector increases to 55% in 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ref

Cap_

2030 Ref

Cap_

2030 Ref

Cap_

2030

Industry+ Transportation Buildings

Fuel consum

ption

 in mtoe

Biomass

NaturalGas

OilProducts

Coal

Electricity

Electricity generation increases, mix changes

Energy demand declines, electricity’s share increases

A matrix for understanding ‘Sustainable Development’ synergies and trade‐offs?

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Reference Sc

Total Emissions 6785Per capita emissions 4.09

Per capita urban residential electricity

consumption1.38

Per capita rural residential electricity

consumption0.46

Electricity Cost Average generation cost for new investments 2.63

Total jobs related to energy generation

sector13.10

Wind related jobs 0.35Ground mounted solar

jobs 5.77

Solar PV module manufacturing jobs 4.35

Coal 2.43Gas 0.02

Nuclear 0.17

Water Water withdrawal- Electricity 8.28

Land Requirement 17398PV 8366

CSP 63Wind 8350

Coal, oil and gas 619

Coal Coal consumption (2021-50) 37.80

Jobs

Land

Emissions

Electricity Access

CEEW Synergies and Trade‐Off Matrix Cap_2030 Sc

1663 MtCO2

1.00 tCO2/capita

1.41 MWh/capita

0.46 MWh/capita

2.31 INR/kWh        (2015 prices)

27.51 Million FTE

0.36 Million FTE

15.20 Million FTE

11.45 Million FTE

0.15 Million FTE0.00 Million FTE0.34 Million FTE

2.13 Billion Cubic Metres

31235 Thousand Acres22024 Thousand Acres

173 Thousand Acres8574 Thousand Acres464 Thousand Acres

18.15 Billion tonnes

To summarise

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• Uncertainty based assessment helps in deriving a robust understanding of the future

• Our assessment shows that solar is going to grow hugely, but this is very sensitive to the cost of integration and who bears this cost

• Industrial sector is where some important uncertainties are present

Power Sector Reforms 

Integration Cost and Market Design

Electrification of Industrial Sector

Need for India specific study

Need for assessment of decarbonisation strategies on jobs and competitiveness

Acknowledgem

ents

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For their intellectual inputs in shaping the studyP C Maithani (MNRE, India) Pankaj Batra (CEA, India)P R Shukla (Formerly, IIM Ahmedabad, India) Robert Pietzeiker (PIK, Germany)Amit Kumar Kulshreshtha and Amit Kumar Verma (NTPC, India) Solar and wind power plant developers for their perspectivesCleanMax Solar, First Solar Power India, Fourth Partner Energy, Hero Futures Energies, SunSource Energy, ReGenPowertech, ReNew Power Ventures, Suzlon Energy, and Vikram Solar For their comments during various stages of the studyPrasoon Agarwal (IRENA, UAE), Tilman Altenburg (German Development Institute, Germany), Suman Bery(Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, India), Navroz Dubash (CPR, India),  Amit Garg (IIM Ahmedabad, India) CEEW Team for informing analysis of India’s power sector, industrial sector, and renewable energyKapardhi Bharadwaj, Tirtha Biswas, Kanika Chawla, Karthik Ganesan, Vaibhav Gupta, and Neeraj Kuldeep Reviewers Anshu Bharadwaj (CSTEP, India)  Sudhir Chella Rajan (IIT Chennai, India) Srihari Dukkipati (Prayas Energy Group, India) Karthik Ganesan (CEEW, India) Arunabha Ghosh (CEEW, India)  Yeshika Malik (CSTEP, India) Robert Pietzcker (PIK, Germany) Priyadarhi R Shukla (formerly, IIM Ahmedabad, India)Dr E Somanathan (ISI, India) Ashok Srinivas (Prayas Energy Group, India) Henri Waisman (IDDRI, France)Funding SupportFunding support was made available from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.          The views expressed in the report are those of CEEW and not of the Foundation.

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