valuation models
DESCRIPTION
Valuation Models. Bonds Common stock. Key Features of a Bond. Par value : face amount; paid at maturity. Assume $1,000. Coupon interest rate : stated interest rate. Multiply by par value to get dollar interest payment. Generally fixed. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Valuation Models
BondsCommon stock
Key Features of a Bond
Par value: face amount; paid at maturity. Assume $1,000.
Coupon interest rate: stated interest rate. Multiply by par value to get dollar interest payment. Generally fixed.
Maturity: years until bond must be repaid. Declines over time.
Issue date: date when bond was issued.
Value = + . . . .
How can we value assets on the basis of expected future cash flows?
CF1
(1 + k)1
CF2
(1 + k)2
CFn
(1 + k)n
The discount rate k is the opportunity cost of capital and depends on: riskiness of cash flows. general level of interest rates.
How is the discount rate determined?
An annuity (the coupon payments).A lump sum (the maturity, or par, value to
be received in the future).
Value = INT(PVIFAi%, n ) + M(PVIFi%, n).
The cash flows of a bond consist of:
0 1
1001,000
Value = = $1,000.
Find the value of a 1-year 10% annual coupon bond when kd = 10%.
$1,1001.10
0 10
1001,000
1 2
100 100
Find the value of a similar 10-year bond.
Way to Solve
Using tables:
Value = INT(PVIFA10%,10)+ M(PVIF10%,10).
= 100*0.9090 + 100*0.9091
= 1000
Rule: When the required rate of return (kd) equals the coupon rate, the bond value (or price) equals the par value.
What would the value of thebonds be if kd = 14%?
1-year bond
Using tables:
Value = INT(PVIFA14%,1)+ M(PVIF14%,1).
= 100*0.9772 + 1000*0.8772
= 964.92
10-year bond
When kd rises above the coupon rate,bond values fall below par.They sell at a discount.
Using tables:
Value = INT(PVIFA14%,10)+ M(PVIF14%,10).
= 100*5.2164 + 1000*0.2697
= 791.34
What would the value of the bonds be if kd = 7%?
1-year bond
Using tables:
Value = INT(PVIFA7%,1)+ M(PVIF7%,1).
= 100*0.9346 + 1000*0.9346
= 1028.06
10-year bond
When kd falls below the coupon rate,bond values rise above par.They sell at a premium.
Using tables:
Value = INT(PVIFA7%,10)+ M(PVIF7%,10).
= 100*7.0236 + 1000*0.5083
= 1210.66
Value of 10% coupon bond over time:
13721211
1000
791 775
M
kd = 10%
kd = 7%
kd = 13%
30 20 10 0Years to Maturity
Summary
If kd remains constant: At maturity, the value of any bond must
equal its par value. Over time, the value of a premium bond
will decrease to its par value. Over time, the value of a discount bond
will increase to its par value. A par value bond will stay at its par valu
e.
Semiannual Bonds
1. Multiply years by 2 to get periods = 2n.2. Divide nominal rate by 2 to get
periodic rate = kd/2.3. Divide annual INT by 2 to get PMT
= INT/2.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
2n kd/2 OK INT/2 OK
N I/YR PV PMT FV
2(10) 14/2 100/220 7 50 1000N I/YR PV PMT FV
788.10
Find the value of 10-year, 10% coupon, semiannual bond if kd = 14%.
INPUTS
OUTPUT
Using tables:
Value = INT(PVIFA7%,20)+ M(PVIF7%,20).
= 50*10.5940 + 1000*0.2584
= 788.10
00 11 22 33 . . .. . . 88
100 100 100 . . . 100100 100 100 . . . 100
What is the cash flow stream of aperpetual bond with an annual
coupon of $100?
A perpetuity is a cash flow stream of equal payments at equal intervals into infinity.
Vperpetuity = .PMT
k
V10% = = $1000.
V13% = = $769.23.
V7% = = $1428.57.
V10% = = $1000.
V13% = = $769.23.
V7% = = $1428.57.
$1000.10$1000.10
$1000.13$1000.13
$1000.07$1000.07
P0 = + + . . . . ^ D1
(1 + k)
D2
(1 + k)2
Dฅ
(1 + k)ฅ
Stock value = PV of dividends
D1 = D0(1 + g)D2 = D1(1 + g)
.
.
.
Future Dividend Stream:
P0 = = .^ D1
ks - g
D0 (1 + g)
ks - g
If growth of dividends g isconstant, then:
Model requires: ks > g (otherwise results in negative
price).g constant forever.
D0 = 2.00 (already paid).
D1 = D0(1.06) = $2.12.
P0 = = =$21.20.
Last dividend = $2.00; g = 6%.
What is the value of Bon Temps’ stock given ks = 16%?
^ D1
ks - g
$2.12
0.16 - 0.06
P1 = D2/(ks - g) = 2.247/0.10 = $22.47.
^
What is Bon Temps’ value one year from now?
Note: Could also find P1 as follows:
P1 = P0 (1 + g) = $21.20(1.06) = $22.47.
^
^
ks = + g
= + 0.06 = 16%.
D1
P0
$2.12
$21.20
Constant growth model can berearranged to solve for return:
^
V =
= = $13.25.
Pmtk
If a stock’s dividends are not expected to grow over time (g = 0), then it is a perpetuity.
$2.12 0.16
Zero growth
Subnormal or Supernormal Growth
Cannot use constant growth model
Value the nonconstant & constant growth periods separately
If we have supernormal growth of 30% for 3 years, then a long-run constant
g = 6%, what is P0?^
0 ks=16% 1 2 3 4
g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6%
D0 = 2.00 2.60 3.38 4.394 4.658 2.241 2.512 2.815 P3 = = 46.5829.84237.41 = P0
4.658 0.10
00 11 22 33 44
$2.00$2.00 $2.00$2.00 $2.00$2.00 $2.12$2.12
0%0% 0%0% 0%0% 6%6%. . .. . .
Suppose g = 0 for 3 years, then g is constant at 6%.
ฅ
(1) PV 3-year, $2 annuity, 16% PV = PMT(PVIFA 16%,3)
= 2 * 2.2459 = $4.492.
(2)P3 = = $21.20.
PV(P3) = $13.58.
P0 = $4.49 + $13.58 = $18.07.
$2.120.10
What is the price, P0?