vanluong.blogspot.com vitheusd

7/31/2019 VanLuong.blogspot.com ViTheUSD

1/36

LOGO

V th ca USD qua cc thik v vn la ha Nhm 2:

Nguyn Trng Anh Nguyn Bch Hnh Phm Th Bch Ngc (86)

Bi Th Mai Phng Trn Th Thoan H Th Hi Yn


2/36

Ni dung

V th ca la qua cc thi k 1

Vn la ha Vit Nam 2

4


3/36

1. V th ca USD qua cc thi k

Cc tiu ch nh gi v th ca mt ng tin 1.1

V th ca la qua cc thi k 1.2

4

Nhng d on v th ca ng la trongtng lai 1.3


4/36

1.1.Cc tiu ch nh gi v th ca mt ng tin

Nhn t d tr ngoi hi ca quc gia: Mt ng tinc v th ln s c t trngcao trong qu d tr ngoi hi ca cc quc gia

T trng trong thanh ton v tn dng quc t: Cc giao dch nhiu quc gia c quy ira ng tin , v s lng giao dch v ln Yu t lng tin ca ngi dn vo gi tr ng tin : ng yu c nhiu quc gia chp nhn v s dng nhiutronggiao dch quc t Li sutTri phiu Chnh phm nc ban hnh


5/36

Nhn t nh hng n v th ng USD

Thng tin kinh t: ch s GDP, CPI, cung tin

M2, t l tht nghip, t l lm pht.

Nhn t chnh tr

Nhn t chnh sch v li sut


6/36

1.2. V th ca la qua cc thi k

5. Giai on 1980 1985

4. Giai on t nm 1973 n nhng nm 1980

6. T Hip nh Plaza n Hip nh Louvre

1. Trc chin tranh th gii th nht

7. Sau s kin khng b 11/09/2001

2. Gia hai cuc i chin th gii

3. Thi k Bretton Woods sau chin tranh th gii II

8. V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay


7/36


Trc chin tranh th gii th nht Trong giai on ny ng USD ch n thun ng vai tr l 1 ngtin quc gia

Gia hai cuc i chin th gii Trong giai on ny, ng la M t ng tin quc gia bt utin dn n vic tr thnh ng tin c v th trong giao dch quc t


8/36


Thi k Bretton Woods sau chin tranh th gii II - S au i chin th gii th II, M tr thnh mt cng quc mnh

nht th gii v ngoi thng, v tn dng quc t v l nc c d

tr vng ln nht th gii (chim khong tng d tr vng caton b th gii t bn). y chnh l nhng yu t to nn thmnh cho ng la M trn trng quc t, a ng tin nyln ngi ng tin ch cht ca th gii

- Thng 7 nm 1944 ch tin t Bretton-woods ra i vi vic thanhn USD l ng tin chun, lm tr ct cho ch tin t ny


9/36


Giai on 1973 1980 Trong thi k nyUSD mt dn v tr c

tn, nhng do tim lckinh t ca M rt ln,cho nn USD vn cnl mt ng tin mnh

Giai on 1980 1985 USD khng ngng tnggi, t gi danh ngha

v t gi thc tng gn50%. Nguyn nhn lCP M p dng chnhsch tht cht tin t,ni lng chnh sch tikho dn n thm ht

ngn sch

T Hip nh Plaza

n Hip nh Louvre Trc s tng gi cang USD, cc nc i n nhm hp

a ra Hip nh Plaza cam kt hp tc gim gi ng USD. ng USD gim gi

mnh

Sau s kin khng b11/09/2001

S kin 11/9/2001,vnh cao l v tndng ti M dn n

khng hong ti chnhton cu. USD mt gi

16% tnh t thng3/2009 v trn 20%

tnh t nm 2002 vtip tc xung gi


10/36


V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay V th ca USD ang gim dn, bi thc t cho thy: Gi tr ng USD ang b xi mn: t gi USD c xu hng gim sovi mt s ng tin mnh Kim ngch trao i hng ha trn th gii bng USD c chiu hnggim. Cc nc tm cch gim giao dch bng USD V th ng tin d tr ca USD cng suy gim: T l USD trong rtin t d tr th gii do IMF qui nh gim t 69% nm 2002 xung62% nm 2008 v cn 42% t 2011


11/36

V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay

NGUYN NHN V TH GiM

Do Chnh schtin t tnc M:ni lng tin t tng cnhtranh xutkhu, lm chong USDngy cng mtgi

Lng tin vogi tr ngUSD gimst do nhngtn ti trongnn kinh tM

V th tng lnca TrungQuc, gy ranhng lo ngiv ng USD.

M hin l conn ln ca thgii, Trung Qucl ch n lnnht ca M

Vi bt n cah thng tin tquc t, ccnc c xuhng a dng

ha d tr tin tquc gia. IMF ku gi ci tG20, trao thmquyn lc mi


12/36

V th ca ng USD trong giai on hin nay

Tuy nhin USD vn chim v tr s 1 th gii trong giai on hin nay do:

M vn lnn kinh t ng u th gii

D cc ncgim giao dchbng USD songla vn duy trvai tr chnhtrong cc giao

dch ngoi hi,TM, v th trngNHquc t

USDvn ng vai tr ch yu ca ng tin d tr

quc t


13/36

1.3. D on v th ng la trong tng lai

Tnh t u nm2011 n nay, USD mt gi 5% vgiao dch st mcthp nht so vi gi

cc loi tin t ln trn th gii

Liu ng USD s mtv th ng tin d tr

ca th gii sau 25nm na?

Nc nm d tr USDng k nht lTrungQuc, n nay adng ra khi ng tinny. 4 thng u nmnay, trong d trngoi hi ca TrungQuc c u t voti sn khng phi USD(theo c tnh caStandard Chartered)

Khi m

Khi m


14/36

1.3. D on v th ng la trong tng lai

D bo v ng tin a cc thay th cho s thng trca ng USD hin nay ging vi suy ngh ca mts nh hoch nh chnh sch hng u th gii .Ngn hng Th gii, trong nm 2010 xut v mth thng tin t mi trong bao gm nhiu ng tinln ca th gii bao gm ng USD, ng euro, yn,bng Anh v nhn dn t.


15/36

So snh vi v th ca EURO

Gi tr ng EURO ang b suy yu

Gi Euro gim mnh

T trng s dng ng tin thanh ton lEURO vn cn thp EURO hay bt c ng tin no khc cng kh c th chimlnh c v tr ca ng tin ny trong giao dch ngoi thng v thng mi quc t


16/36

2. Vn la ha

Khi nim la ha

Phn loi la ha

Tc ng ca la ha

Thc trng la ha Vit Nam


17/36

2.1. Khi nim

KHI NIM LA HA Ngoi t c s dng rngri thay

cho ng ni t trong ton b hoc mt s chc nng tin t

PHNLOI LA HA - la ha khng chnh thc

- la ha bn chnh thc - la ha chnh thc


18/36

2.2. Phn loi

Theo hnh thc: la ha thay th ti sn, la haphng tin thanh ton, la ha nh gi-nim yt gi

Theo phm vi s dng: la ha khng chnh thc, la ha bn chnh thc, la ha chnh thc


19/36

la ha khng chnhthc - ngUSD c s dng rngri trong nnkinh t, mcd

khng c qucgia chnh thc tha nhn

la ha bn chnhthc - ngUSD luhnh hpphp, c th chim u thtrong cc

khon tin gingn hng

la ha chnhthc - ng ngoi tl ng tin hpphp duy nht c luhnh


20/36

2.3.1 Tc ng tch cc ca laha

gp phn lm gim lm pht

Tng cng kh nng cho vay ca ngn hng

H thp chi ph giao dch.

Thc y thng mi v u t

Thu hp chnh lch t gi trn hai th trng chnh thcv ph chnh thc


21/36

2.3.2. Tc ng tiu cc ca laha

nh hng n vic hoch nh cc chnh sch kinh tv m

lm gim hiu qu iu hnh ca chnh sch tin t

Chnh sch tin t b ph thuc nng n vo nc M

la ho chnh thc s lm mt i chc nng ca ngnhng trung ng l ngi cho vay cui cng ca ccngn hng


22/36

2.4. Thc trng la ha ti Vit Nam (ngun: http//www.sbv.gov.vn)

th 1: Din bin la ha Vit Nam

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

T 1 0 / 2 0 1

0

%

Tin gi ngoi t/M2 Tn dng ngoi t/M2


23/36

Digc la ha tin gi:Gim t trn 30% vo cui nhng nm 90 xung di20%hinnay.

- Giai on1991 -1993: gim mnh - Giai on1994 -1996: kh n nh - Giai on2000 - 2001: t l tin gi ngoi t/M2 tng v

mc khong30%.

- Giai on2002 - 2007: c xu hng gim - T2008 nnay: mc la ha kh n nh (khong20%)


24/36

Digc la ha tinvay:Mc la ha c s bin ngkh mnh

- Giai on2000 2005: gim mnh t mc31% xung13

16%.- T2005 nnay: Tngln khong20%

Di gc la ha tin mt:

Mc la ha tng dn qua cc nm


25/36

Nguyn nhn chung

1. Do a v kinh t chungca cc ncc ng tin mnh

Xutpht nhu cu s dng mt ng tin quc t trong giao dch thng mi Mt s nc davo li th

kinh t ch trng a ng tin camnh ra th gii


26/36

2. Dong ni tc gitr thpv khngn nh

3. Do trnh qun l NhNcv chnh schtin t quc gia

Qunl tin t caNh Nc lng lo, thiu cht ch,khngkimsot cchi tiu trn th trng

Nhiu nc ch ngtheo ui lich ca la haChnh sch tin tlm ng ni t yuv bt n


27/36

Nguyn nhn ring

1 Ngun ngoi t VitNam tngnhanh

2 Yu ttm l

3

la ha do chacn bng lich nm gi

gia ngVND v USD

4 Tnh trngbun luqua bin gii dinra mnh


28/36

1. Ngun ngoi t tng nhanh v Vit Nam c nhiuknhhuy ng ngoi t

Ngun kiu hi tng mnh vi mc tng10% /nm

Lng ngoi tchi tiu VitNam cakhch du lch tng nhanh cng vi lng khch du lch.

Tin lng ca ngi VitNam lm victrong cc dn lin doanh, c quan nc ngoi ti VitNam v.v ..c tr bng ngoi t

Tin vin tr khng hon li, tin cacc t chc t thin, t chcphi chnh ph ncngoi v.v

Hot ng u t nc ngoi ti Vit Nam gm c u t trc tip v g

Kim ngch xut khu ngy cng gia tng cng vi s pht trin ca nn kin


29/36

2. Yu t tm l

Xutpht ttm l chung ngoiv s VN mtgi

C thi quen s dng ngoi t trong thanh ton v giao dch quan trng nhmua nh ca, t .


30/36

3. Bun luqua bin gii dinra mnh

4. Lich nm gi giaVND v USD chacn bng Nguyn nhn do:- Bin ng v tgi, li sut thc tv li sut k vng - VN cha phil ng tin chuyn i - Lmpht tng icao so vikhu vc


31/36

Gii php chng la ha Vit Nam

Ngh nh 95/2011 v.v x pht vi phm hnh chnh

Thng t s 14/2011/TT NHNN

Quyt nh iu chnh t gi

Tng d tr bt buc i vi ngoi t


32/36


33/36

Thng t s 14/2011/TT - NHNN

NI DUNG

Quy nh trn li sut vn huyng bng la M ca t chc, c nhn ti t chc tn dng l2% /nm, gim1% so vi trc

TC DNG

Gimnhu cu nm giUSD ca cc c nhn v doanh nghip t gim cuUSD, gim t gi, kim ch lmpht v kt qul chng la ha


34/36

Quyt nh iu chnh t gi

NI DUNG

V mc iu chnh: gi USD tronggiao dch lin ngn hng tng 1.700 ng, t mc18.932 VNDln mc20.693 VND/USDV bin : thu hpbin giaodch xung mc gn nh ti thiu, ch cn +- 1%.

TC DNG

Hn ch, gii totnh trng gm gi, k vng u c, gp phn cn i theo nguyn tc th

trng cung- cu v ngoi t, kch thch xut khu t gp phn kim ch lmpht, chng la ha.Thu hpchnh lch tgi chnhthc vi tgi trn th trng t do, ci thin d tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam, gim bt k vng u c v c hot ngbun bn vn


35/36

Tng d tr bt buc i vi ngoi t

NI DUNG

Tng t l d tr bt buc i vi ngoi t

TC DNG

Trc tiptc ng nchi ph huyng vn bng ngoi t cacc t chctn dng,theo yli sut cho vay USD ln, gimnhu cu vay bng ngoi t cacc doanhnghip, gim cuUSD


36/36

LOGO

vanluong.blogspot.com vitheusd

Documents