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Water & Vulnerability: Global Environmental Change and

the Southern African Region

Anton Earle & Anthony TurtonAfrican Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU)

University of Pretoria

Paper presented at the SAVI Workshop Maputo June 19-21, 2003.

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Variables Impacting Water Resources

4. Social Adaptive Capacity

3. Population growth – impact

2. Infrastructure (Dams)

1. Climatic Variability

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Variables Impacting Water Resources

Social Adaptive Capacity

Population growth – impact

Infrastructure (Dams)

Climatic Variability

Global Climate Change

HIV / AIDS

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Precipitation produces little runoff in southern African river basins

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Natural Climatic Variability

• Typically only 10 % of MAP available as MAR in Sn African river basins.

• Fluctuations in rainfall have a disproportionately large impact on river flow rates. eg – a 10 % drop in rainfall can lead to a 20 – 30 % drop in stream flow.

• Droughts and floods often follow each other consecutively – each presenting different threats.

• Evapotranspiration is 2 to 10 X MAP.

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Annual Inflows at Mohembo – Okavango River

Per

cen

tag

e o

f m

ean

an

nu

al i

nfl

ow

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Time (Years)

5-yearMovingaverage

Max.: 16,145 x 106 m3

Mean: 9,863 x 106 m3

Min.: 5,321 x 106 m3

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Responses to variability

• Large-scale intra & inter basin transfer schemes constructed.

• RSA at 539 large dams is ranked 11th in the world & Zimbabwe 20th with 213 (World Commission on Dams).

• 50 % of dams in Africa are for irrigation.

• 20 % for water supply.

• 1 % for flood control.

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Ecosystems Under Pressure

• Large-scale dams & water transfers pose a threat to eco-systems.

• Communities dependant on the ecosystem services are most at risk.

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Population DynamicsWater availability in the SADC - current & projected

(Ashton, 2002)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Cu

bic

M /

p /

yr

2000

2025

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Population DynamicsWater availability in the arid SADC - current & projections

(Ashton, 2002)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Botsw

ana

Leso

tho

Mal

awi

Namibi

a

South

Afri

ca

Tanza

nia

Zimba

bwe

Cu

bic

M /

p /

yr

2000

2025

Severe water scarcity

Pop. Growth rates adjusted for country HIV / AIDS prevalence in 2000

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Population Dynamics

• Water demand is likely to increase – even if population growth is low or zero.

• Communities previously without water need to be supplied.

• Waste & pollution is likely to increase, placing stress on water quality.

• HIV / AIDS reduces the ability of households to pay for water services.

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Population Dynamics

• Marginalised people resort to cultivating land unsuitable for agriculture – possibly causing erosion, eg Lesotho.

• Large-scale de-vegetation could possibly lead to a change in the local climate as reflectance increases.

• Refugees frequently settle on riverbanks – facing the risk of floods, eg Jukskei River in Johannesburg.

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Social Adaptive Capacity

• A scarcity of a first-order resource (water) can be mitigated by the presence of second-order (social) resources.

• Water resources can be used in the most productive activity, frequently industry.

• Staple foods, such as grain can be imported – saving 1000 tonnes of local water for every tonne imported (virtual water imports).

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Social Adaptive Capacity

• A scarcity of a first-order resource (water) can be mitigated by the presence of second-order (social) resources.

Hydrological Cycle

Surface & Ground Water

Soil Water

InfiltrationWater used for 60% of world food production (38% of world’s water reserves)

Water for domestic & industrial use

Augmented by virtual water

Augmented by inter-basin transfers and

desalination

$

$$$

FREE

Med to High Cost

First-order Resources

Second-order Resources

Transpiration

Water available to a country for food production

Soil

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Social Adaptive Capacity

Arid Southern Africa Cereal Trends

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Year

To

nn

es

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

% R

elia

nce

on

im

po

rts

Production

Reliance

Cereal production & reliance in RSA, Nam, Bot & Zim – FAO, 2003)

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Transboundary Waters

• No evidence of countries going to war over water over the past century.

• 70 % of interactions over water between states have been in the realm of cooperation (agreements, regimes, data-sharing, treaties etc).

• Potential for conflict over water increases as scale decreases.

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Sn Africa Shared Rivers• 261 shared river

basins in the world.• 17 deemed to be at

risk of conflict by 2012.

• Six in Sn Africa: Orange, Okavango, Cunene, Incomati, Zambezi, Limpopo.(see Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database, OSU)

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Impact of Non-Cooperation

• Destabilisation of the region resulting from a negative peace.

• No development takes place as the various riparian states cannot agree on equitable sharing of water resources.

• Development which does take place is uncoordinated, with a dubious legal standing.

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Benefit Sharing

• Most water law based on the concept of “fair & equitable share”.

• The aim should be to move away from water sharing & towards benefit sharing (water included).

• Needs a high degree of trust & cooperation between states, as well as social adaptive capacity within states.

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The Okavango River Basin -Where Are We Now?

What is the Place of Policy?

•Treaties & conventions• Population

growth & demography

• Perceptions & values

• Spontaneous human activities

• Climate variability & oscillations

• The annual flood pulse

• Tectonic activity• Soil types & topography

• Climate change

Natural factors no human

control

3 National Governments

Programmes& policies

OKACOM

BasinManagement

Today’s Capacity to Cope

Ecology ofOkavango

River Basin& its

ecosystemservices

National water resources

WetDry

Hu

man

cap

acity

to a

dap

t

Weak human resource base

Strong human resource base

Botswana

Angola

Namibia

Fast-acting natural

pressures

• Pressure groups• Vested interests

• Demands for jobs, schools, etc.

• Epidemics – HIV/AIDS

Fast-acting human pressures

• Droughts• Floods

• Epidemics

Human factors slow to change or hard to influence

There are various natural and human pressures influencing decision-making & policy formulation within the Okavango Basin. Some of these are fast-acting, with a direct impact on the governments of the riparian states, while others are very slow-acting with almost no human control possible – these present opportunities and challenges to the populations of the states. The ability of a state to adapt to its situation is dictated by factors such as economic development, institutional environment education levels and health of the population.

OKACOM – as the institution responsible for the sustainable management of the Basin - faces the challenge of accommodating the different view points, values, goals, needs and desires of the various stakeholders as they formulate and implement policy.

“Where We Are Now” is a collaborative effort of delegates attending the Green Cross International, Water for Peace, Okavango Project’s second workshop in Gobabeb, Namibia. The delegates included OKACOM Commissioners from each of the riparian states, NGOs, local government representatives, academics and researchers.

For further information visit:

www.up.ac.za/academic/libarts/polsci/awiru or www.gci.ch

Project was made possible through the kind funding from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Department of Development Cooperation, The Netherlands and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden

Okavango Delta - Botswana

Flow over Namibian territory

Catchment in the Angolan highlands

The Okavango River extends from the highlands of Angola, flows through Namibia’s

Caprivi region & ends in the sands of the Kalahari Desert.

Produced by AWIRU for the 3rd World Water Forum, Kyoto Japan, March 2003