venezuela politics da 3 - michigan7 2013

8/13/2019 Venezuela Politics DA 3 - Michigan7 2013

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/venezuela-politics-da-3-michigan7-2013 1/39

**Venezuela Politics DA**Strategic Trick –

(1) Use these DA’s with “Say no” arguments – Either Maduro will say no or he

will say yes and they link to the DA’s.

(2) If you want to kick out of DA, you can still extend the uniqueness and/or link

card as evidence that Maduro will say no to take out aff solvency in the

negative block.

Shortcomings of File –

*Needs impact development – some of the impact scenarios do not have terminal

impacts – any *tagline requires a card to accompany it



1NC

Next six months are key – municipal elections will determine Maduro’s ability

to fulfill his 6-year mandate

Renuncio’13 - Senior Associate, Intelligence & Analysis, London (Irenea, Risk

Advisory, “Venezuela: strategic risk outlook for 2013,” 6/19/2013,

http://news.riskadvisory.net/index.php/2013/06/venezuela-strategic-risk-

outlook-for-2013/) //CT

While we believe that Maduro and Cabello are likely to continue governing in an informal

power sharing agreement for the remainder of the year, it is unclear at this point if thisarrangement is sustainable in the longer term, particularly as hardship protests appear likely to

continue and put pressure on the relationship. Protests could weaken Maduro’s authority and upset the balance of power

between the two men. Currently there is no firm evidence to suggest that Maduro could be ousted from power before the

December elections and we think such a scenario is unlikely on current indications. Rather, Cabello and Maduro seem likely to

cooperate to maintain their positions and privileges under the current system, with both leaders forced to support each other

despite their differences. However, Maduro’s prospects after the elections seem much less certain, making the next six

months a critical window for him to start delivering on economic policy and

bringing improved security to the country. Constrained by a power sharingagreement and having inherited a highly dysfunctional economy and politicalsystem, Maduro’s ability to deliver is very limited. It seems unlikely that evenwith a dramatic reform program he will be able to deliver results quickly. In the

meantime, opposition protests seem almost certain to continue over the following months. These are most

likely to intensify in October and November ahead of the December municipal

elections , which are likely to be a test of Maduro’s leadership . With the opposition calling for a

mass turnout at the polls, the next local election is most likely to result in renewed unrest in the country’s main cities,

especially if socio-economic hardship continues. Regardless of outcome, the municipal elections will not

unseat Maduro, but potentially sweeping gains by the opposition could seriously

erode his standing in Chavismo and open the door to an internal challenge by

Cabello . Although the longer-term direction of Chavismo is difficult to forecast with any reliability, on current indications

the current government appears to lack the cohesion or popular support tonavigate a range of different economic and political challenges duringMaduro’s six-year mandate, so we expect a restive end to the year .

US – Venezuelan relations at all time low – Maduro using anti-American rhetoric

to quiet radical factions in Venezuela. Maduro opening to United States and

private industry will fracture his political and regional support. WA Post, „13 (Juan Forero, “Venezuela's Maduro culls power with Snowden asylum offer,” 7/9/13, L-N)//CT

BOGOTA, Colombia - American fugitive Edward Snowden's diminishing possibilities of remaining free to continuereleasing information about secret U.S. surveillance programs increasingly appear to hinge on Venezuela, which awaited word Monday on whether the former National Security Agency contractor would accept its offer of asylum and fly to theoil-rich country. Bolivia and Nicaragua also say they could give refuge to Snowden, who is on the run from Americanofficials and is thought to be marooned in the vast transit zone of Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport. And thepresident of communist Cuba, Ral Castro, on Sunday expressed support for Latin American allies that might take in the30-year-old computer expert, opening the possibility that Snowden could fly through Havana as a first leg on his flight toasy-lum. Among those offering sanctuary to Snowden, anti-imperialist Venezuela stands out: a country with an intense an-



tipathy toward the United States and just enough muscle to make his escape from American law enforcement a possibil-ity. It also appears that Russian officials, eager to end the diplomatic fallout of having Snowden in Moscow, see their closeally, Venezuela, as offering the clearest solution. "The situation with Snowden is creating additional tension in relations with Washington that are complex as they are," Alexei Pushkov, head of the foreign affairs committee in Russia's lowerhouse of parliament, told the newspaper Kommersant on Monday. Pushkov, whose comments dependably reflect theKremlin's position on foreign affairs, said the Snowden saga needed to be settled before President Obama arrives inSeptember to meet with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. "And judging by the way things are unfolding," Pushkov

told the newspaper, "this is how it's going to be." Over the weekend, Pushkov had also said that giving asylum to

Snowden in Venezuela could not damage President Nicols Maduro, because hisgovernment's relations with Washington are already in tatters. "It can't getworse," Pushkov said in a Twitter message. Newly elected and facing staggering economic problems at home despite

the country's oil wealth, Maduro appears to have made a high-pitched, openly hostileposition against the Obama administration a cornerstone of his govern-ment'sforeign policy. He took his most provocative stand Friday in announcing that Venezuela would takein Snowden. On Monday, Maduro said that a letter from Snowden requesting asylum had been received and that the young American would simply have to decide when to fly to Caracas. Maduro has accused the United States of fomentingprotests against his government after his disputed April 14 election victory, which gave him the presidency hispredecessor, Hugo Chvez, had held for 14 turbulent years until his death from cancer. The Snowden saga - a young American revealing secrets the U.S. government wants to contain - provided the per-fect opportunity for Maduro to take

on the Obama administration, said Eduardo Semtei, a former Venezuelan govern-ment official. "To figure

internationally, to show that he is a player among big powers, he offeredasylum to Snowden," said Sem-tei, who had been close to Chvez's brother, Adn, a leading ideologue in the late

president's radical movement. "This grabs headlines, and it shows that he's a strongpresident, one with character, and that he's capable of challenging the UnitedStates." Maduro and Venezuela came late to the Snowden saga, as tiny Ecuador, an ally also committed to opposing Ameri-can initiatives, heaped praise on Snowden and expressed a willingness to help him after he had flown from HongKong to Moscow on June 23 to avoid American justice. WhenEcuador backed away from its initial enthusiasm overSnowden, Venezuela stepped in last week as Maduro arrived in Moscow for an energy summit. The 50-year-old

Maduro, who found his political calling as a socialist activist with close ties toCuba, took a sharp-ly anti-imperialist stand in embracing Snowden. He saidthe United States had "created an evil system, half Orwellian, that intends tocontrol the communications of the world," and characterized Snowden as an

antiwar activist and hero who had unmasked the dastardly plans of America'sruling elite. Political analysts say the opportunity to take sides againstWashington was simply irresistible for a government that has for yearscharacterized itself as a moral force speaking out for the weak against "theempire," as the United States is known in Caracas. And the fact that the secrets Snowdendivulged were embarrassing to the Obama administration only gave more fuel to Venezuela, former Venezuelan diplomatsand political analysts in Caracas said. "Edward Snowden became the symbol for the anti-imperialist rhetoric, forprogressivism, for international radical-ism," said Carlos Romero, an analyst and author who closely tracks Venezuela's

international diplomacy. Venezuela helped channel the fury of Argentina, Bolivia,Ecuador, Uruguay and Suriname after Bolivian President Evo Morales's plane was apparently refusedentry into the airspace of as many as four European countries last Tuesday because of the belief that Snowden was hidingaboard. And on Monday, Venezuela's state media apparatus seemed to take more offense than the Brazilian governmentover revelations that the NSA had collected data on countless tele-phone and e-mail conversations in Brazil. But former

diplomats familiar with Venezuela say that there are other aspects to consider in deciphering Maduro's support forSnowden. Ignacio Arcaya, a diplomat who served the Chvez government in the United States in the early part of his

presiden-cy, said Maduro has had the challenge of trying to ease the concerns ofradicalized sectors in his movement that have been worried about aresumption of relations with Washington now that Chvez is gone. Indeed, untilrecently, Maduro was spearheading an effort at rapprochement, as shown by a meeting in Guatemala on June 5 between

Secretary of State John F. Kerry and his Venezuelan counterpart, Elas Jaua. "What Maduro is doing is aimed at

quieting the radical sectors of his party who think he is negotiating with the



U nited S tates and think that he's talking to private industry," Arcaya said. Maduro also

has to consider his own unstable political position after the April 14 election, whichis being contested by his challenger, Henrique Capriles, who says the vote was stolen from him. At the same time,

Maduro faces millions of Venezuelans tired of the country's sky-high inflation, rampant homiciderate and serious shortages of everything from chicken to toilet paper. Myles R.R. Frechette, a retired

American diplomat who served in Venezuela and other Latin American countries, said Maduro is using a tried-and-true strategy: loudly oppose the United States to distract from domesticproblems. "It plays very well," said Frechette. "It's the card to play. It's what you've alwaysgot in your drawer. You open your drawer and play to your most radicalelements."

Turns the case - Loss of political popularity causes Venezuelan instability -

this spills over to regional destabilizationFair Observer, ’13 – a team of researchers, analysts, facilitators and problem-solvers that speak more than a dozen

languages, and have lived, worked, or studied in nearly 50 countries. (Helios Global, “Change in Venezuela Yields Political andEconomic Uncertainty”, Fair Observer, 6/4/13, http://www.fairobserver.com/article/change-venezuela-yields-political-and-economic-

uncertainty)//MC

Operating under a weaker popular mandate, and in a politically charged and polarized climate, raises the specter

of widespread disturbances in Venezuela. Capriles announced on April 25 that his movement plans to boycott an official

audit of the election results due to concerns relating to voter registration irregularities. He has also called for a new presidential vote.

Capriles and his supporters seem determined to step up pressure on the fledgling Maduro presidency. Countries that depend

on Venezuelan largesse to support their economies through the receipt of subsidized oil and

preferential trade access to the Venezuelan market, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia, among

others, stand to lose a great deal should Maduro choose to shift Venezuelan foreign policy, however

slightly, from the Bolivarian Revolutionary ideals enshrined during Chavez’s rule . Having to contend with their

own economic troubles, the loss of subsidized oil or other benefits provided by Venezuela, for example, can

destabilize fragile polities, impoverishing millions in the process. This raises the potential of social,

political, and economic instability throughout the region.



Uniqueness – Anti-American Now

Maduro won’t normalize relations in the squo – multiple reasons:

a) Powers comments - postdates Kerry’s June meeting Neuman 7/20 –Journalist for NYT (William, New York Times , “Venezuela stops Efforts to improve U.S relations”,

6/20/13 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuela-stops-efforts-to-improve-us-

relations.html?_r=0) //JWC CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round of off-

again-on-again efforts to improve relations with the U nited S tates in reaction to comments

by the Obama administration’s nominee for United Nations ambassador. The nominee, Samantha Power, speaking before

a Senate committee on Wednesday, said that part of her role as ambassador would be tochallenge a “crackdown on civil society” in several countries, including Venezuela. President

Nicolás Maduro had already lashed out on Thursday at Ms. Power for her remarks, and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said

that it was terminating efforts to improve relations with the United States. ¶ Those efforts had inched

forward just last month

after Secretary of State John

Kerry publicly shook hands with the Venezuelan foreign

minister, Elías Jaua, during an international meeting in Guatemala — one of the highest level meetings between

officials of the two countries in years. ¶ Venezuela “will never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs,” the

Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that it “considered terminated the process begun in the conversations in

Guatemala that had as their goal the regularization of our diplomatic relations.”

b) Consistently vocal anti-American rhetoric proves

AP 7/17 (Deb Riechmann, “Snowden affair chills US-Latin American ties”,

Associated Press: US Politics & Government Online, NewsBank, Monday, July 15th

2013) EC

U.S. relations with Venezuela have been a lot thornier. ¶ While Nicolas Maduro ,

appears to be more pragmatic than his predecessor, he has loudly voiced hisown anti-American rhetoric since taking office — even alleging that the U.S. had a hand in Chavez' death

from cancer. Maduro expelled two U.S. Air Force attaches from Caracas, accusingthem of trying to foment instability. The Obama administration responded by expelling two Venezuelan diplomats

from Washington.

c) Spying Scandal and Snowden proves - predictive

BBC, 7/18/13 (“Snowden case adversely affecting US-Latin American ties”, BBC

Monitoring International Reports, Khaleej Times website, Internal Bank News,

Thursday, July 18, 2013) EC

But even if the US manages to get hold of him, the former CIA technical worker has managed tostrain hitherto solid trans-atlantic relations and even deal a blow to America'sties with Latin America. Following report in the German paper Der Spiegel -based on leaked classified documents by

Snowden -which alleged that America's National Security Agency (NSA) had been spying on its European allies, Brazil's O Globo published a

similar report regarding the NSA's spying on South American countries. ¶ The states, which have often beenreferred to America's "backyard" were incensed by these revelations. After this news

made headlines, the Mercosur bloc of nations - Venezuela , Brazil, Argentina, Uruguayand Paraguay -were quick to condemn the alleged spying by the US and defendtheir right to offer Snowden asylum. And now, Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman has given a list of

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuela-stops-efforts-to-improve-us-relations.html?_r=0




http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/venezuela/index.html?inline=nyt-geo


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/americas/venezuela-frees-tim-tracy-jailed-us-filmmaker-and-expels-him.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world/americas/venezuela-frees-tim-tracy-jailed-us-filmmaker-and-expels-him.html






nearly a 100 names of politicians and officials, who are allegedly being spied on, to prosecutors. According to Timerman, a high-ranking official

at last week's meeting of the Mercosur group had given him the list. While the foreign minister did not accuse the US of subj ecting Argentine

citizens to illegal surveillance, there are reports that a similar list has been handed to anofficial of another Latin American country as well. ¶ It's clear that theallegations of spying by the US are being taken very seriously by Latin

American nations. And this news has made these countries even more

adamant on providing asylum to Snowden. Venezuela , Bolivia and Nicaraguahave all offered the 30-year-old whistleblower asylum in their territory. Snowden,

who is without travel documents, is expected to seek temporary asylum in Russia before moving to Latin America. ¶ The Snowden

affair has adversely impacted US ties with Latin America, but it seems they

will only deteriorate in the future. With Snowden freely roaming in Venezuela , divulging more about the US

intelligence in the global media, the scandal is definitely going to do some irreparable

damage to America's relations with its supposed backyard.



Uniqueness – Regional stability

Maduro has regional support now – Brazil and Argentina backMaduro, but opposition leaders are still campaigning

-Economic governs regional ties, not democratic ties WA Post, „13 (Emilia Diaz-Struck and Juan Forero, Journalists, “New Venezuelan leader wins support in region,”5/11, p.A6, L-N)//CT

CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's embattled new president, Nicolas Maduro, worked hard this

week to strengthen diplomatic ties with neighbors, winning much-needed support from some of the continent's biggest democra-cies as he

faced accusations at home that his government stole April's presidential election. Visiting regionalheavyweight Brazil on Thursday, Maduro won a seal of approval fromPresident Dilma Rousseff, who pledged to expand trade with Venezuela. A

day earlier, Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner had mobilized pro-Venezuela activists to

fill a Buenos Aires soccer stadium and signed a range of bilateral cooperation accords with Maduro. "We wish you great success with your presidential mandate and with your government," Roussefftold Maduro at a news conference in Brasilia in which the two leaders laughed and exchanged hugs. "We are a deeply

democratic country," Maduro responded. "We have an almost perfect electoral system." In a week offeverish diplomacy, Maduro's efforts were matched by those ofopposition leaders, who traveled to meet with legislators and journalists in Colombia, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. Theyasserted that the April 14 vote in Venezuela had been rife with irregularities, questioning whether Maduro really defeated

his challenger, Henrique Capriles, and said the government had clamped down on itspolitical adversaries ever since, even resorting to violence. "Our intention was to show what's been going on before lawmakers and governments," Leopoldo Lpez, who led small delegations to Peru, Argentina

and Uruguay, said in an interview. " We want our neighbors to know of the instabilityin Venezuela." As protests picked up in the days after the vote, the government arrested a former general it

accused of fomenting dissent, and lawmakers were videotaped beating opposition congressmen in the National Assembly.Top officials, including Maduro, have also vowed to jail opposition leaders, among them Capriles and Lpez. But it was

clear by Friday that Maduro, handpicked by the late President Hugo Chvez to be his successor, wassecurely ensconced in power. Governments from Mexico to Argentinaappeared to see little amiss with the Venezuelan election, which electoralofficials closely allied with the government said Maduro had won by arazor-thin margin. "He shored up his support," said Michael Shifter, president of theInter-American Dialogue, a Washington group that tracks politics across the region. "These governments didn't showmuch hesitation in embracing Maduro. They still see him as the main option, and there didn't seem to be any hint that

they were reconsidering their support for him." Many of the countries to which Maduroreached out have close trade ties with Caracas, which they see as asignifi-cant importer of their products or a vital supplier of subsidized

oil. The issue of civil rights in Venezuela played little or no role in thediplomatic positions that several countries took , said Mois√©s Na√¬m, senior

associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "Their silence speaks veryeloquently to how much they weigh their economic interests and howlittle their demo-cratic values weigh in their behavior ," said Na√¬m, who is Venezuelan and opposes the Maduro government.



Uniqueness – Public Popularity

Maduro narrowly popular now – public likes political, social and economic

outlook

Mallet-Outtrim’13 (Author, studying Journalism and International Relations at the University of South Australia,majoring in national security and sustainability (Ryan, 4/10/13, “Poll Reveals Majority of Venezuelans View Maduro

Positively; Carter Center Recommends Electoral Reform, http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9806) //JM

After being elected president with 50.6% of the vote in April, now 55.9% of Venezuelans supportNicolas Maduro, according to a survey from pollster International Consulting Services (ICS). The

increase in support for the president is attributed to direct communication with theelectorate, such as Maduro's “street government” initiative, according to ICS director, Lorenzo Martinez. “This result is

evidence somewhat that the Maduro government... has had a positive impact on the perception of the people... thepolitical, social and economic landscape is improving,” Martinez told state news agency AVN,

following the publication of the results yesterday. However, when asked how they viewed Maduro's management skills, a

slightly higher figure- 56.2% of participant s described the president's performance as “excellent” “fair” or “good”. The 1,600

Venezuelans surveyed by the ICS between 15 to 26 June also expressed a favourable view of the economy and security,

according to Martinez. 53.4% of participants stated that they feel the economy is improving, while 21.2% stated it hasworsened. 24.8% said that the economy hasn't changed since Maduro took office, while 0.6% didn't know, or didn't answer.

Two weeks before the 14 April elections, an ICS poll estimated that Maduro could command 56.9% of the vote, while his

closest rival Capriles had 41.1%. Maduro won the election with just 50.6%, while Capriles received 49.1% of the vote. Policies

with meat on the bone? As well as citing the “street government”, Martinez told AVN the results indicate that government

initiatives to counter speculation and crack down on public sector corruption, along with efforts to enforce price controls have

contributed to a positive outlook. According to Martinez, people can “see solutions to their specific problems”. Last month, the

head of the Institute for the Defence of People in Access to Goods and Services (Indepabis) Eduardo Saman announced a

crackdown on price speculation and retailers that fail to adhere to price controls. Since then, Saman has also announced that

Indepabis has launched a nationwide initiative to put the price of meat “back on track”. The minister for trade, Alejandro

Fleming has announced he held a series of meetings with a number of major retailers, along with the National Association of

Supermarkets to encourage greater cooperation between the private sector and Indepabis. On the same day that the ICS

results were released, an Indepabis spokesperson announced that 20 butchers in Lara state had been penalised for not

complying with price controls. “We have audited, we found these irregularities and these establishments have been punished,”

the Indepabis regional coordinator for Lara, Valentina Querales stated yesterday afternoon. Since the initiative was launched,

the head of Indepabis in Carabobo state Luis Vilchez has stated that 32 audits have been carried out in his state, resulting in

penalties being applied to seven businesses. Another government initiative that Martinez said received some positive feedbackfrom participants was the 'Safe Homeland' anti-crime program.

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9806)%20/JM



http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/160039/consultora-ics-maduro-aventaja-a-capriles-por-15-8-puntos-la-gente-confia-en-el-candidato-de-chavez/

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/9724




http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/160039/consultora-ics-maduro-aventaja-a-capriles-por-15-8-puntos-la-gente-confia-en-el-candidato-de-chavez/




Links



Link – Generic Economic Engagement

Maduro must remain anti-American to maintain politicalsupport from Bolivarian elitesShinkman „13 (Paul, National Security reporter at US News & World Report, 4/24/13, “Iranian -SponsoredNarco-Terrorism in Venezuela: How Will Maduro Respond?”, US News and World Report,

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/24/iranian-sponsored-narco-terrorism-in-venezuela-how-will-maduro-respond)//JL At a conference earlier this month, top U.S. military officers identified what they thought would be thetop threats to the U.S. as it draws down from protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.¶ Gen. James Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps, was unequivocal about a largely unreported danger:¶

"Narco-terrorism just on our south border: [it is] yet to be seen just how that is going to play out in our own

nation, but it is an issue and it is something that our nation is going to have to deal with."¶ "Colombia is doingparticularly well, but there is an insurgency growing," Amos continued. "They have been fighting it, probably the greatestsuccess story in this part of the world."¶ The commandant's remarks came a week before the April 14 election where Venezuelans chose a successor to the wildly popular and charismatic Hugo Chavez, who

died March 5. Amos indicated the outcome of this election would define much of future

relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, located on a continent that hasrarely appeared on America's foreign policy radar in the last decade.¶

Experts, analysts and pundits could not have predicted the election outcome: The establishment's Nicolas Maduro beatreformer Henrique Capriles by a margin of roughly 1 percent. Chavez's hand-picked successor inherited the presidency,

but he would not enjoy a broad public mandate to get a teetering Venezuela back on track .¶ The situation in the

South American nation remains dire amid skyrocketing inflation, largely due to Chavez's efforts to nationalizeprivate industry and increase social benefits.¶ Maduro's immediate attention after claiming victory was drawn to

remedying widespread blackouts and food shortages.¶ One expert on the region says the newleader may need to tap into a shadow world of transnational crime to maintain

the stability his countrymen expect .¶ "Venezuela is a really nice bar, and anybody can go in

there and pick up anybody else," says Doug Farah, an expert on narco-terrorism and Latin American crime.¶ He compares

the country to the kind of establishment where nefarious actors can find solutions to a problem. Anti-American

groups can find freelance cyber terrorists, for example, or potential drug runners can makeconnections with the FARC, the Colombian guerilla organization, he says.¶ "Sometimes it creates a long-term relationship,and sometimes it creates a one-night stand," says Farah, a former Washington Post investigative reporter who is now a

senior fellow at the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center.¶ Under Chavez, Venezuela also created strong ties with Cuba, which for decades hasnavigated treacherous financial waters and desperate economic straits, all whiledodging U.S. influence. But the help Venezuela receives is not limited to its own hemisphere.¶ Farah

produced a research paper for the U.S. Army War College in August 2012 aboutthe "growing alliance" between state-sponsored Iranian agents and otheranti-American groups in Latin America, including the governments of Venezuela and Cuba.¶ This alliance with Iran uses established drug trade routesfrom countries in South and Central America

to penetrate North American borders

, all undera banner of mutual malevolence toward the U.S.¶ The results of this access are largelysecret, though security experts who spoke with U.S. News believe the attempted assassination of the Saudi Arabianambassador in Washington, D.C.'s Georgetown neighborhood was carried out by Iranian intelligence operatives.¶ "Each of

the Bolivarian states has lifted visa requirements for Iranian citizens,thereby erasing any public record of the Iranian citizens that come and go to these

countries," wrote Farah of countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia and Panama.¶ He also

cited Venezuelan Foreign Minister David Velasquez who said, while speaking at a press conference in

Tehran in 2010, "We are confident that Iran can give a crushing response to the threats and



sanctions imposed by the West and imperialism."¶ These relationships arecontrolled by a group of military elites within Venezuela, Farah tells U.S. News. He

wonders whether the 50.8 percent of the vote Maduro won in the April 14 election gives himenough support to keep the country – and its shadow commerce – stable enough to continue itsusual business.¶ "[Maduro] has been and will continue to be forced to take all the unpopular macroeconomic steps andcorrections that are painful, but Chavez never took," Farah says. "There is going to be, I would guess, a great temptation to

turn to [the elites] for money."¶ "Most criminalized elements of the Boliavarian structure will gain more power because heneeds them," he says, adding "it won't be as chummy a relationship" as they enjoyed with the ever-charismatic Chavez.¶

U.S. officials might try to engage the new Venezuelan president first in thehopes of improving the strained ties between the two countries.¶ But

Maduro has never been close with the senior military class in his home country, and will likely adopt a

more confrontational approach to the U nited S tates to prove his

credentials to these Bolivarian elites. ¶ "Maybe if he were operating in different

circumstances, he could be a pragmatist," Farah says. "I don't think he can be a pragmatistright now."

Maduro must flex anti-American rhetoric to maintain power - Snowden proves.Scicchitano 7/6 (Paul Scicchitano, writer at Sustainable Success Alert, 7/6/13,

"Ambassador Reich: Maduro Shows 'False Manhood,' Wants to be Chavez," News

Max, http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/reich-maduro-venezuela-

snowden/2013/07/06/id/513588)//SL

Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Otto Reich tells Newsmax that Venezuela’s offer of asylum for NSAleaker Edward Snowden is an attempt by President Nicolas Maduro to flex his “false

manhood” and be more like his predecessor — the late dictator Hugo Chavez.? “Venezuela

has nothing to gain. Maduro has a lot to gain,” Reich said in an exclusive interview on Friday.

“Maduro gains that macho bravado that he has lacked so far. He’s really been a

laughing stock in Venezuela because of things like his statement that Chavez came to him as a little bird and

spoke to him. People have been making fun of that for months. He’s just not taken seriously. What better

show of false manhood than to stand up to the great American empire — stand up to

the Americans. This is what he’s doing.”

Engagement with Washington will ruin Maduro – continuing Chavista solves

credibility.

O’Reilly ‘13( Andrew , bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Pittsburgh and a joint master’s degreein journalism and Latin American studies from New York University, former editor-in-chief and Founder of Fox NewsLatina, 4/17/13, “US-Venezuelan Relations Remain Tense Under Maduro, Experts Claim, Fox News Latina,http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/04/17/us-venezuelan-relations-remain-tense-under-maduro-experts-claim/)//JL While the ultimate impact of the Venezuelan presidential election remains to be seen, what's for sure is thatrelations between the United States and the administration of President-elect NicolásMaduro will continue to be as tense as under the late Hugo Chávez,experts said.¶ After voting on Sunday in a Caracas slum, Maduro said that while he would like to reestablish

relations with the U.S. “in terms of equality and respect,” Washington will always try to underminehis rule.¶ These words followed a steady rhetoric on the campaign trail ofMaduro accusing the U.S. of conspiring against him and causing disruptions inVenezuela to unseat his rule, including working with opposition labor unions and causing electric power



blackouts. ¶ Experts argue that given Maduro‟s anti-American sentiments leadingup to the election, as well as the controversy surrounding his victory and the polarization in Venezuela, there is little hope for a change in relations

between the countries .¶ “It‟s hard to see [Maduro] backing off his

rhetoric in the aftermath of the election,” Eric Hershberg, the director of American

University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies, told Fox News Latino. “ Americans will insiston a level of respect that he is not going to give them.”¶ The death ofHugo Chávez put Maduro and the rest of the Venezuelan left in a difficult position.Chávez’s charisma held the movement together and his social spending allowed him to skirt the dicey issues of rising

inflation, high crime and a fledgling economy.¶ While the current election results are still being debated, howMaduro faces the country’s mounting problems – both politically and socially – are what willdecide is he and Chavismo survive his six-year term.¶ In 2009, Chávez led asuccessful push for a constitutional referendum that abolished term limits for the offices of President, state governors,mayors and congress members. The previous provision established a three-term limit for deputies and a two-term limit forthe other offices, but with the 2009 referendum, Chávez – or any other leader – could ostensibly stay in powerindefinitely. ¶ Maduro does not have the charm or power to hold the Chavista movement together nor make Venezuelansforget about the pro blems plaguing their nation. If Sunday’s vote is any indication, Venezuela is torn between Chávez’slegacy and a dismal future, with the official results giving Maduro 51 percent of the vote to challenger Henrique Capriles’49 percent – although opposition sources showed Capriles winning by more than 300,000 votes.¶ “Chávez could overcomethe detractors because he was viewed as a national hero, Maduro doesn’t have that,” said Larry Birns with the Council for

Hemispheric Affairs.¶ To maintain his credibility within the Chavista

movement and fend off opponents from within his own party,

Maduro needs to maintain his opposition to the U.S. and continue to

paint Americans as imperialist intruders, experts said .¶ “He’s got to worry about

the opponents that will pose a threat to his rule,” Birns said. “These are difficult times for Maduro and no one knows how

the scenario will play out.”¶ For its part, the United States is not in better shape when itcomes to its relations with Venezuela – or other Latin American nations. Diplomatic disputes with Venezuela and touchy relations with neighboring Bolivia and Ecuador have led to a schism between the United Statesand the countries in the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas.¶ Hershberg said that the Obama administration's refusal toaccept the official results of Venezuela's election will not only anger Maduro, but could be viewed as hypocritical in thelight of the scandal surrounding the uncounted votes during the 2000 U.S. presidential election that saw George W. Bushdefeat Al Gore.¶ The U.S. has a long history of political involvement – both overtly and covertly – in elections throughoutLatin America.¶ “For the Americans to say this only 12 years after Bush. V. Gore is remarkable,” he said. "Latin Americalooked at the U.S. and said that the U.S. will never again be able to tell us how to conduct our elections.”¶ “This makes themlook absurd,” he added, about the State Department’s refusal to recognize the election of Maduro. ¶ The State Departmentsaid it was "difficult to understand" why the commission certified ruling party candidate Nicolás Maduro as the winner inthe absence of a recount, which challenger Henrique Capriles is demanding.¶ It also condemned the post-election violencethat has killed at least seven people and injured 61. ¶ In a televised broadcast Tuesday, Justice Minister Nestor Reverolaccused Capriles of numerous crimes, including insurrection and civil disobedience.¶ Maduro blamed Capriles personally.¶

"You are responsible for the dead we are mourning," he said, calling Capriles "the defeated candidate."¶

Government officials have been alleging since Monday that Capriles isplotting a coup, and President-elect Maduro announced that he wasprohibiting an opposition march scheduled for Wednesday in thecapital.¶ On Tuesday Capriles' supporters protested in cities includingMerida and Maracay.

Plan destroys Maduro's power in Venezuela -- he must emulate Chavez

Metzker ‘13 (Jared Metzker, studies American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins,

"Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend U.S.-Venezuela Relations" 6-17-2013, IPS News,

http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-

venezuela-relations/)//SL



“Maduro has so far shifted in his position toward the U.S. between a moderate

approach and a more hard-line one ,” Shifter told IPS.? The new president’s waffling may be

a reflection of his tenuous grip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and

rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes.? In

addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition that openly challenges the legitimacy

of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavez’sown former political base.? Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant

strength for Chavez, more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of

Venezuela’s parliament and whose supporters believe he was the rightful heir to the

presidency.? Maduro’s legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideological

fidelit y, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to “emulate”

his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.



Link – Counterterror/Counternarcotics

Maduro rejecting counterrorism and counternarcotic assistance from US to

shore up political support

Sullivan ‘13 (Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, "Hugo Chávez’sDeath: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research

Services, 4/9/13, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf)//SL

Over the years, U.S. officials have expressed concerns about human rights, Venezuela’smilitary ? arms purchases, its relations with Iran, and its efforts to export its brand of populism to

other ? Latin American countries. Declining cooperation on anti-drug and anti-terrorism efforts

has been ? a major concern. The United States has imposed sanctions: on several Venezuelan government ? and

military officials for helping the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) with drug ? and weapons trafficking; on

three Venezuelan companies for providing support to Iran; and on ? several Venezuelan individuals for providing support to

Hezbollah. In late 2010, the Chávez ? government revoked an agreement for U.S. Ambassador-designate Larry Palmer to be

posted to ? Venezuela. The Obama Administration responded by revoking the diplomatic visa of the ? Venezuelan Ambassador

to the United States. ? Despite tensions in relations, the Obama Administration maintainsthat it remains committed to ? seeking constructive engagement with Venezuela,

focusing on such areas as anti-drug and ? counterterrorism efforts. In the aftermath of

President Chávez’s reelection in October 2012, the ? White House, while acknowledging differences with President Chávez,

congratulated the ? Venezuelan people on the high level of participation and the relatively peaceful election process. ?

Subsequently, in November 2012, the State Department’s Assistant Secretary of State for

Western ? Hemisphere Affairs, Roberta Jacobson, engaged in a conversation with Vice

President Maduro ? about improving bilateral relations, including greater cooperation

on counternarcotics issues. ? In early January 2013, the State Department reiterated that

the United States remained open to ? dialogue with Venezuela on a range of issues of

mutual interest . In light of the setback in ? President Chávez’s health, a State Department spokesman

maintained on January 9, 2013, that ? “regardless of what happens politically in Venezuela, if

the Venezuelan government and if the ? Venezuelan people want to move forwardwith us, we think there is a path that’s possible.”11? In response to President Chávez’s death, President

Obama issued the following statement: ? At this challenging time of President Hugo Chávez’s passing, the United States

reaffirms its ? support for the Venezuelan people and its interest in developing a constructive relationship ? with the

Venezuelan government. As Venezuela begins a new chapter in its history, the ? United States remains committed to policies

that promote democratic principles, the rule of ? law, and respect for human rights.? While the President’s statement did not

offer traditional condolences, the State Department ? maintains that it expressed U.S. sympathy to Chávez’s fami ly and to the

Venezuelan people.13? Many Latin American and other foreign leaders have expressed their condolences to Venezuela on ?

Chávez’s passing. The White House statement focused on the U.S. interest in getting cooperative ? bilateral relations back on

track while at the same time reiterating that the United States is ? committed to promoting democratic practices and respect

for human rights. A number of other ? statements by Members of Congress also expressed hope for a new era in U.S.-

Venezuelan ? relations. ? While some observers contend that Chávez’s passing and the beginning of a new political era in ?

Venezuela could ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no expectation ? that this will happen quickly.

In fact, State Department officials have cautioned that the upcoming ? electoral campaign could delay any forward movement

in improving bilateral relations.14 Just ? hours before Chávez’s death on March 5, Vice President Maduro announced

that two U.S. ? military attachés were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedlyattempting to provoke ? dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to

blame Chávez’s sickness on the United ? States. State Department officials strongly denied the

Venezuelan charges regarding the attachés, ? and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two

Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official ? in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan Embassy in

Washington).15? Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chávez

government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf)/SL






being employed by the PSUV once again in ? the current presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013,

Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that ? Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about

improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with ? Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of comments that

Jacobson had made in a Spanish ? newspaper; Jacobson had said that “Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent

elections.” A ? senior U.S. official reportedly said that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over ? whether

bilateral relations will be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another ? strange accusation by Maduro is that

two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to ? kill Capriles and to blame it on the Maduro government; the StateDepartment strongly rejected ? the “allegations of U.S. government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.”17 Looking ?

ahead, some observers contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV

leaders to mask internal problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized

as a potential new PSUV ? government led by Maduro deals with a deteriorating

economy.



Link – International Ally Crowdout

Economic cooperation with China, Russia, and Brazil resources critical to

maintain Maduro’s political power - Maduro will maintain power until

December 2013, but coming municipal elections could doom agenda if hisopponents make gains.

Renuncio’13 - Senior Associate, Intelligence & Analysis, London (Irenea, Risk

Advisory, “Venezuela: strategic risk outlook for 2013,” 6/19/2013,

http://news.riskadvisory.net/index.php/2013/06/venezuela-strategic-risk-

outlook-for-2013/) //CT

This intelligence suggests that the long-term political future of Maduro remains uncertain at this stage. But whileCabello’s stand could ultimately pose a threat to the president in the long term, Maduro

seems to have the ability to govern for the remainder of 2013. A former Chavista official

tells us that the rivals appear to need each other to govern. According to this source, Maduroneeds someone to keep the armed forces in check, while Cabello needs to

appear to respect Chávez’s wish for Maduro to follow as his successor, at least in the short term.

Maduro’s executive power seems to be limited by Cabello’s control of key state powers. However, as president he still retains

control of the country’s key oil resources through the management of state oil company, PDVSA , whose head Rafael Ramírez

remains a close ally. According to our sources, the Cuban government provides Maduro withintelligence in exchange for economic support, and has been instrumental inproviding the president with parallel military and police intelligence to thatcontrolled by Cabello. Maduro constantly refers to plots to oust him, and relies on Cuban security, as he seems to

mistrust Cabello. These indicators suggest that Maduro has resources at his disposal to secure hisimmediate political survival. In addit ion, several countries tacitly support Maduro’s continuation in power.

As former foreign affairs minister, Maduro knows most international leaders personally

and has the tacit support of powers such as China, Brazil and Russia , which were

the first countries to congratulate him after the election. All of these countries seem to support the

status quo and the continuation of key contracts in the energy, construction

and food industries.

*US economic engagement pushes China, Brazil and Russia out of the

Venezuela – causing Maduro to lose necessary international support from

Russia, China, and Brazil.



Impact Modules/Extensions



Ext 1NC IL – Regional Stability

Venezuelan instability will spillover - Regional neighbors economically

dependent on Venezuela

Gómez, 3-12-13, (Eduardo J., “Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of Chavez'salliance”, CNN, Internal Bank News, March 12, 2013) EC

Chávez's death is certainly changing the political calculus in Venezuela , but will it also result in a broadershift that could realign much of Latin America and affect attitudes toward, and relationships with, the

United States? ¶ The answer is likely "yes." ¶ First, the grouping of nations previously opposing theUnited States under Chávez's leftist alliance -- namely the "Alba" alliance,comprised of Venezuela , Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua , and Bolivia -- could wellwither away, due to Venezuela 's ongoing recession and fears that alliancemembers will no longer have Venezuela 's financial backing. When combined with reports of

Chávez's expressed desire to strengthen ties with the Obama administration, regional hostility towards the United States may decline. ¶ Since

assuming office in 1999, Chávez viewed Washington as an oppressive force manipulating Latin American politics while keeping the region

underdeveloped through its dependence on U.S. resources. In response, Chávez approached like-mindedleaders to build a coalition challenging the regional influence of the UnitedStates. ¶ By 2005, Bolivia, Nicaragua , Cuba, Honduras and Ecuador joinedChávez's coalition, which led to the formation of the Bolivian Alliance of the Americas, also known as Alba. Alba served as an

alternative to the Free Trade Act of the Americas, with an explicit focus on poverty reduction, but it also facilitated the unification of these

nations in their anti-American sentiments . ¶ With Chávez gone, however, there may be no one left who has theclout to keep financing this alliance. Venezuela is Alba's largest financier,contributing millions in aid to its members as well as oil at low prices. ButVenezuelans may believe that with ongoing poverty and inequality, theircountry's needs are more important than those of Chávez's small club ofnations. ¶ This situation worries Alba members. According to Cynthia Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,

while Bolivia and Ecuador are independently wealthy and not financially

dependent on Venezuela , Cuba and Nicaragua are. ¶ Cuba receives roughly

100,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil a day, while Venezuela accounted for $8.3

billion of Cuba's $20 billion in foreign trade in 2011. Chávez also paid

approximately $6 billion annually for 40,000 Cuban doctors and nurses,

according to Reuters. ¶ Cuban citizens fear that Chávez's death will push themback to the days of the post-Cold War recession, when Russia gradually withdrew its funding for Cuba.

Meanwhile, Nicaragua has received approximately $500 million a year in loans and

oil credits, increasing to $609 million in 2011, while earnings fromagricultural exports to Venezuela increased from $2 million in 2006 to $300

million in 2011. ¶ But alliance members also realize that they have options. Nicaragua 's economic minister, Bayardo Arce, recentlystated that it's time to diversify Nicaragua 's economic relations with China, Europe and the United States, mainly because Nicaragua has "to

anticipate that Alba is not going to be permanent." Cuba may also seek to strengthen its relations with Brazil, its second -largest trade partner in

the region. In fact, both governments already have plans to engage in several trade and infrastructure projects and are ramping up trade, mainly

in sugar exports.



Impacts – Cuba

Economic instability in Venezuela will spillover to Cuba – economic

interdependence

Keppel ’13 - Director of Empowerment Initiatives at Univision News (Stephen, “WhatChávez's Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S.”, 3/16/13, ABS News,http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-

us/story?id=18669003)//MC

According to figures from the state-owned oil company PDVSA, in 2011 Venezuela sent 243,500 barrels of oil a day (or

around 8 percent of its production) to 16 countries across Latin America. Yet the absence of Chávez and the

potential drawdown of economic support would have the biggest impact on Cuba. That country

receives more than 100,000 barrels of discounted oil per day and billions of dollars each year in

exchange for Cuban medical personnel, technology experts, political consultants and other

"professionals."

*Cuban economic collapse impact – find from Cuba Aff file



Impacts – Nicaragua

Venezuelan instability will spillover - Nicaragua’s economy dependent on

Venezuela

Rogers, ’10 (Tim, Author for Beats-North America, “Has Nicaragua found its silverbullet? - Exports to Venezuela have skyrocketed but Nicaragua could be trusting its

fate to a house of cards.” Beats, Internal Bank News, 7-25-13) EC

MANAGUA, Nicaragua — Nicaragua ’s exponential export growth to Venezuela has itsgovernment singing the praises of Hugo Chavez's socialist alliance. But, economists warn, once thewonderment ceases, Nicaragua could be left with a nasty hangover. ¶ Since Nicaraguan

President Daniel Ortega returned to power three and a half years ago, exports to Venezuela have jumped bynearly 6,000 percent, from $2 million in 2006 to $119 million in 2009 — anamount that is projected to double again this year. Venezuela is now Nicaragua’s second-biggest export market behind the United States — a remarkably fast achievement

considering three years ago Venezuela didn’t even rank in Nicaragua ’s top 25. ¶ Though Nicaragua has always relied

heavily on Venezuelan oil imports, it has only recently started to reciprocateby exporting beans, beef and cattle. ¶ Ortega claims the numbers offer convincing proof that the “fair-trade”

economic model of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas is redefining international relations in a world dominated by “sav age capitalism.”

The alliance, known as ALBA, is a a leftist cooperation agreement betweenVenezuela , Cuba, Nicaragua , Ecuador, Bolivia and three small Caribbeannations. ¶ Originally formed as a socialist alternative to U.S.-led free-trade advances in Latin America, ALBA has evolved into a

Venezuelan-bankrolled effort to promote political, commercial and cultural unity among likeminded countries in Latin America. But five y ears

after its inception, critics argue ALBA is little more than a clubhouse of impoverishednations dependent on Venezuelan oil and a political platform for Chavez’arbitrary style of leadership.

*Nicaragua instability impact



Ext IL – Cuban Instability & Nicaragua

Cuba and Nicaragua economically dependent on Venezuela

Gomez, 3-12-13, (Eduardo J, Special to CNN, “Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of

Chavez's alliance”, CNN Wire, Internal Bank News, 7-25-13) EC This situation worries Alba members. According to Cynthia Arnson of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, whileBolivia and Ecuador are independently wealthy and not financially dependent onVenezuela , Cuba and Nicaragua are. ¶ Cuba receives roughly 100,000 barrelsof Venezuelan oil a day, while Venezuela accounted for $8.3 billion of Cuba's$20 billion in foreign trade in 2011. Chávez also paid approximately $6 billionannually for 40,000 Cuban doctors and nurses, according to Reuters. ¶ Cuban citizens fear that

Chávez's death will push them back to the days of the post-Cold War recession, when Russia gradually withdrew its funding

for Cuba.



Impacts – Coup

Maduro on brink of losing military support and causing violent coup – this turns

case

Mander, 13 – the FT's Venezuela and Caribbean correspondent (Benedict, “Maduro needs military's loyalty”, The Financial Times Limited, 4/7, ABI/INFORM

Complete)//CC

Although Mr Maduro has ample experience as a trade union activist, legislator and diplomat, he may struggle to maintain the

fierce loyalty that Chávez created among senior military officials, perhaps the most powerful faction in the disparate

movement known as “chavismo”. “There are concerns in the military high command aboutMaduro,” says Antonio Rivero, a retired general who left the army in 2010 in protest at Cuban influence, and is now

affiliated with the opposition. Some question Mr Maduro’s legitimacy, others his competence, while others are suspicious of

his status as a civilian. “Chávez knew how to talk to the army, he knew how to demand obedience and discipline. Maduro

hasn’t the slightest idea,” adds Gen Rivero, describing him as “the complete opposite to Chávez” in the army’s eyes. “It’s an

issue that is being monitored, evaluated and discussed internally, both by chavistas and non-chavistas.” The army’spresence in government is strong. During the former tank commander’s 14-year rule, he spread martial

ideals in an attempt to achieve a “civic -military union”. Today, former military officers run 11 of the20 state governorships held by Venezuela’s United Socialist party, and accountfor a quarter of the cabinet . That includes the defence minister, Admiral Diego Molero Bellavia, who explicitly

backed Chávez’s handpicked successor after his death on March 5. “Now more than ever, the armed forces must unite to

ensure Maduro is the next elected president of all Venezuelans,” the admiral said. The opposition, already scandalised by a

115,000-strong militia set up by Chávez to defend his “Bolivarian revolution”, strongly rejected Admiral Molero’s statement,

pointing out that the constitution forbids the armed forces to take sides. The opposition even claims there is a plan to use

military resources to intimidate Venezuelans into voting for Mr Maduro. Mr Maduro has been backed by other key military

figures too, including Diosdado Cabello, the head of the national assembly who participated alongside Chávez in the 1992 coup

attempt, even though he is widely considered Mr Maduro’s most powerful rival. With his strong militaryfollowing, some question how long that loyalty will last. Either way, the army’s support is

crucial for any president. “Very lamentably, political power in Venezuela has always dependedon two things: oil wealth and the armed forces,” said Rocío San Miguel, who runs Citizen Control,

which monitors Venezuelan security issues. Ms San Miguel argues that the armed forces are split into opposing factions, some

of which are concerned about the prospect of a Maduro presidency. Especially sensitive is how he will respond to accusations

concerning a group of high-ranking officers dubbed the “Cartel of the Suns”, because of the gold stars worn on their epaulettes.

Under Chávez, Venezuela became an important transshipment hub fortrafficking cocaine to the US and Europe. Walid “The Turk” Makled, a drug lord captured in 2011,

claims he had as many as 40 generals in his pay. Since 2008, the US Treasury Department hasalso accused a number of senior military and government officials of being“kingpins” and collaborating with the Colombian rebel group FARC, including the exchange of weapons

for drugs. They include former defence minister and head of the army, Henry Rangel Silva, now governor of Trujillo state, and

former interior minister and retired naval officer Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, now governor of Guárico state. The go vernment

has denied these accusations. Military officials have also been accused of involvement in other dubious activities, such as

illegal gold mining after 43 soldiers were captured in southern Bolívar state by irate indigenous groups this year, and petrol

smuggling, a business which could yield as much as a billion dollars each year. Whether Mr Maduro is seen

as a threat or a help to the military’s interests remains to be seen. Gen Rivero thinks

he may have to become “very generous” to keep some officers happy, through pay rises or handing out new cars. However,

Venezuela may have trouble keeping up the immense spending on Russian arms that Chávez indulged in to keep the military

happy. Most analysts reject the threat of a coup, but it is not inconceivable. “In the last century,five years haven’t gone by without groups of officers being involved inconspiratorial activities,” said Domingo Irwin, a Venezuelan military historian. Indeed, Hugo Chávez was one of

them.



Ext IL – Maduro strength prevents coup

Maduro’s must maintain strong military support to prevent a coup

Lotitto, 13 – The founder and director of Producto Editorial Group in Caracas, Venezuela (Raúl, “Chávismo After

Chávez”, Project Syndicate, 5/6, http://www.project -syndicate.org/commentary/the-future-of-ch-vismo-in-venezuela-by-ra-l-lotitto)//CC

With little hope of restoring Venezuela’s regional authority, Maduro will have to focus on safeguarding his tenuous leadership

position at home. This means that forging a strong partnership with the military isessential.¶ The military embodies the most extreme institutional transformation that Chávez achieved in Venezuela.

Under his leadership, what was once an apolitical and non-deliberative institution – as is standard in a democracy – became

the engine of Chávez’s “twenty-first-century socialism.” Just as the Argentine working class formed Juan Perón’s electoral base

70 years ago, Venezuela’s armed forces served as Chávez’s most steadfast supporters, executing his authority throughout the

country under the motto, “Country, socialism, or death.”¶ As Chávez’s health deteriorated, however, so did the motto’s

significance. But the overwhelming military presence in government ministries andinstitutions, state-owned companies, provincial governments, and privatebusinesses remains intact. The military has effectively achieved a coup d’état

without any struggle.¶ Maduro seems to have the military’s support – at leastfor now. Whether or not the partnership lasts will depend on how Madurotackles Venezuela’s many problems, including high inflation, a soaring crime rate, pervasive corruption,

economic stagnation, low productivity, supply shortages, capital flight, insufficient investment, weak institutions, and a lack of

respect for the rule of law.

Military has political strength and key to resources and trade in Venezuela

Minaya, 13 – Writer for Wall Street Journal (Ezequiel, “Military Poses Risk for Next Venezuela Leader”, The Wall Street

Journal, 4/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324695104578416943869466554.html) //CC

But Mr. Maduro has never been a soldier. Experts say that could present a challenge if he takes up the

mantle of Mr. Chávez, an ex-army tank commander who boosted the sway of the military in government.¶ "I think Madurohas an enormous problem, he doesn't understand the military world ," said Rocío

San Miguel, head of Citizen Control, a Venezuela nonprofit that tracks military issues. "Without Chávez, who is going to sit on

top of this military hierarchy that has co-opted public administration?"¶ More¶ Nearly half of Venezuela's 23states have a former military officer as governor, while a quarter of theexecutive cabinet is composed of members of the armed forces. The army alsocontrols the ports, in a country where currency controls have createdshortages and a thriving black market in everything from dollars to milk .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324695104578416943869466554.html)%20/CC






Turns Case – Democracy

US engagement undermines democracy in Latin America -

Christy ‘13 (Patrick, Senior Policy Analyst for Republican National Committee, Analyst for National RepublicanCongressional Committee, Clerk at International practice, Manfred Worner Fellow, Publius Fellow, BA from Vanderbilt,6/13/13, “US Overtures To Maduro Hurt Venezuela’s Democratic Opposition”,http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/06/13/us-overtures-to-chavez-successor-maduro-hurt-

venezuelas-opposition)//JLev In light of all this, it remains unclear why the Obama administrationseeks, in Secretary Kerry's words, "an

ongoing, continuing dialogue at a high level between the State Department and the

[Venezuelan] Foreign Ministry" – let alone believe that such engagement will lead to

any substantive change in Maduro's behavior. To be sure, Caracas's recent release of jailed American

filmmaker Timothy Tracy is welcome and long overdue. However, it is clear that the bogus charges of espionage against Tracy

were used as leverage in talks with the United States, a shameful move reminiscent of Fidel Castro's playbook.¶ While

Secretary Kerry said that his meeting with his Venezuelan counterpart included discussion of human rights and democracy

issues, the Obama administration's overall track record in the region gives reason for concern. President Obama failed to

mention Venezuela or Chavez's abuse of power during his weeklong trip to the region in 2011. And while Obama refused at

first to acknowledge the April election results, the State Department has since sent very different signals. Indeed, Secretary

Kerry declined even to mention Venezuela directly during his near 30-minute address to the plenary session of the

Organization of American States in Guatemala last week . For Venezuela's opposition, the Obamaadministration's eagerness to revive relations with Maduro is a punch to thegut . Pro-Maduro legislators in the National Assembly have banned opposition lawmakers from committee hearings and

speaking on the assembly floor. Other outspoken critics of the regime face criminal charges, and government officials

repeatedly vilify and slander Capriles. What's worse, if the U nited S tates grants or is perceived to grant

legitimacy to the Maduro government, that could give further cover to the regime

as it systematically undermines Venezuela's remaining institutions.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/06/13/us-overtures-to-chavez-successor-maduro-hurt-venezuelas-opposition







**Aff**



Non-Unique – US-Venezuela Relations

Maduro open to improve relations with U.S.

NTD TV 7/24 (“Venezuela’s Maduro Conditions U.S. Relations on End to ‘Imperialism’”, 7/24/13,http://www.ntd.tv/en/news/world/south-america/20130724/81817-

venezuela39s-maduro-conditions-us-relations-on-end-to-imperialism.html)//AD

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro told supporters on Tuesday (July 23) that better relations withWashington was only possible if the United States changed its tact towards Latin America.¶

¶ [Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela]:¶ "Do you want to have good relations with the United States? This does notdepend on just us, it depends on the U.S.. If they can rectify their policy and are able to,

which I doubt, there will be another position, we will renew dialogue. The government of the United States should reconsider its imperialistic

attitude on Latin America and the Caribbean and its aggression towards Venezuela. When they rectify this, here we w ill wait with our handsstretched and as usual a smile .”¶ ¶

US-Venezuelan relations increasing now – Kerry meeting provesNYT, 7/6/13 (WILLIAM NEUMAN and RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD, Journalists, “Kerry Meets With Official Of Venezuela To Set Talks,” 7/6/13, p.A9, L-N)//CT

After months of tensions between the United States and Venezuela, Secretary of State John Kerry met on Wednesday

with the Venezuelan foreign minister, ElÌas Jaua, in Antigua, Guatemala, and announced the start of

talks aimed at improving relations between the two countries.The overture came after another hopeful sign, Venezuela's release from jail and subsequent expulsion of an Ameri-candocumentary filmmaker who had been accused of seeking to undermine the government. The filmmaker, Tim Tra-cy, wasput on a commercial flight to Miami on Wednesday morning.

''We agreed today, both of us, Venezuela and the United States, that we would like to see our

countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship,''Mr. Kerry said after meeting with Mr. Jaua on the sideline of a session of the General Assembly of the Organization of American States. American officials said Venezue-la had requested the meeting.

Appearing separately, Mr. Jaua said, ''We have faith and confidence that this meeting marks the start of a relation-ship ofrespect.''The two men were photographed shaking hands in what a senior Obama administration official said appeared to be thefirst public meeting of top officials from the two countries since President Obama and the Venezuelan president at thetime, Hugo Ch·vez, shook hands in a brief encounter at a regional summit meeting in 2009.

Mr. Kerry said the countries had agreed ''that there will be an ongoing andcontinuing dialogue at a high level'' between the State Department and theVenezuelan Foreign Ministry.

US-Venezuela relations improving – normalizing relations now

Lee ‘13 – Lawyer, author and has worked as an investigative journalist for the UN,

the AP and many others (Matthew “Kerry says US, Venezuela on tracks to better

ties,” The Associated Press, 6/5/13, http://bigstory.ap.org/article/kerry-eyes-

better-ties-venezuela) // CC

ANTIGUA, Guatemala (AP) — The United States and Venezuela have agreed to begin ahigh-level dialogue with the aim of restoring ambassador-level relations andending more than a decade of steadily deteriorating ties, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

said Wednesday. On his first trip to Latin America since taking office and after meeting Venezuela's foreign minister in the first

cabinet-level discussion between the two nations in at least several years, Kerry said he was hopeful that arapprochement could be achieved. The meeting, which came at Venezuela's request, took place just hours

http://www.ntd.tv/en/news/world/south-america/20130724/81817-venezuela39s-maduro-conditions-us-relations-on-end-to-imperialism.html



http://bigstory.ap.org/article/kerry-eyes-better-ties-venezuela










after Venezuela released from prison an American filmmaker who had been jailed on espionage charges, removing an

immediate irritant in the relationship. Kerry thanked Foreign Minister Elias Jose Jaua for the release of Timothy Tracy, calling

it a "very positive development" and said he and his counterpart had spent about 40 minutes going over in detail areas in

which the two countries could cooperate. "We agreed today — both of us, Venezuela and theUnited States — that we would like to see our countries find a new wayforward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the

ways to do that," he told reporters after the meeting. It took place in Guatemala on the sidelines of the annualOrganization of American States general assembly. "We agreed today there would an ongoing, continuing dialogue at a high-

level between the State Department and the foreign ministry and we will try to set out an agenda on which we agree on things

we can work on together," Kerry said. He said the two countries aim to "begin to change thedialogue between our countries and hopefully quickly move to theappointment of ambassadors between our nations." That process, he said, could lead

"ultimately to a series of steps that will indicate to the people of both countries as well as to the region that we're finding a way

forward to a more constructive and understandable relationship." The two countries haven't had ambassadors posted in each

other's capitals since 2010 near the height of the estrangement between the U.S. and late populist Venezuelan President Hugo

Chavez, who died in March. The Obama administration has been eager to mend ties with Venezuela since the death of Chavez,

who delighted in tweaking the United States and pursued policies that U.S. officials regarded as hostile. However, until

Wednesday there had been little to show for the outreach. In fact, U.S.-Venezuelan relations hadbeen especially tense in recent months. Nicolas Maduro, a Chavez protege who claimed

victory in the presidential election, expelled

two U.S. military attaches in March the same day Chavez

died, accusing them of trying to foment instability, and Tracy's arrest came amid domestic political turmoil over the election to

replace Chavez. In addition to being the first ministerial level meeting between the two nations since 2009, Wednesday's talks

were the first significant contact between the two since the disputed April 14 election to replace Chavez. The opposition is still

contesting the results. Washington is willing to work with Maduro's new government but has said opposition questions about the electoral process must be addressed. The Obama administration has backed

opposition candidate Henrique Capriles' call for a full recount. But Kerry offered his thanks to Maduro,referring to him as president, after his meeting with the foreign minister. "I want to thank the foreign

minister, I want to thank President Maduro for taking the step to meet here onthe sidelines of this conference," Kerry said. "I think it was a very important step."

U.S. officials have said despite the desire to move forward with a new chapterin ties with Venezuela, Washington would not stop expressing concerns aboutdemocracy and human rights in the country, particularly after the election.¶

Relations increasing – coming ambassador appointments proveHerald Tribune 6/13 (Newspaper, 6/13/13, Proquest, “Venezuela, US may exchange ambassadors later this year,” http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1366724182)//JL

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elías Jaua said last Thursday that he hopes his country andthe United States will be able to exchange ambassadors by the end of

the year as diplomatic relations between the two countries arenormalized.¶ Jaua, who is considered the third-most-powerful man in the Venezuelan government, toldEL PAÍS in a brief interview that the late President Hugo Chávez had pushed for thenormalization of relations with Washington before he died from cancer on

March 5.¶ "We have agreed [with the United States] on a meeting point, and also that our relationship will be one of mutual

respect so that we can appoint ambassadors later this year," the foreign minister saidduring a side interview at the Organization of American States (OAS) summit in Antigua, Guatemala.¶ Jaua met with US

Secretary of State John Kerry for 40 minutes last week to discuss the next moves. Relations between Washington andCaracas soured in 2010 when Chávez accused the United States of spying and trying to destabilize his socialistgovernment.¶ Kerry's meeting with Jaua is "the result of a process that began in November, [after being] authorized byCommander Chávez for the then-foreign minister and now-president, Nicolás Maduro," he said.¶ Washington has neverofficially recognized Maduro's election victory, something that has angered the Caracas government. President Obama hasonly said that he had hoped the Venezuelan authorities would agree to a recount as demanded by defeated opposition

candidate Henrique Capriles. When asked whether official recognition would lead

http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/docview/1366724182





to improved bilateral relations, Jaua said that "it wasn't necessary ."¶

" Venezuela has a legitimate and constitutional government headed by Nicolás Maduro," the foreign minister said. " We

haven't broken relations ."¶ Jaua said that issues concerning Venezuela's political situation were not

brought up during the meeting with Kerry. " There is a stable situation in Venezuela . The

government of Nicolás

Maduro is working hard to overcome the challenges it faces

in the economy, security and fixing the electoral system." ¶ In another issue, Jaua said that in September, Venezuela willabandon its participation in the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.



No Threshold

Venezuela will maintain regional power – oil and tradeopportunities means control

WA Post, „13 (Emilia Diaz-Struck and Juan Forero, Journalists, “New Venezuelan leader wins support in region,”

5/11, p.A6, L-N)//CT

Overall, though, Maduro garnered praise from respected leaders such as Uruguayan PresidentJos "Pepe" Mujica, who during Maduro's visit to Montevideo on Tuesday gushed about Venezuela's new role in the

regional trade group, Mercosur, of which Uruguay is a founding member. Maduro in turn pledged "apermanent supply of petroleum" to Uruguay . In Caracas last Sunday, Madurooversaw a gathering of the small Central American and Caribbean countries that make up thePetrocaribe alliance, in which Venezuela provides cut-rate oil. Maduroannounced that two new members, Honduras and Guatemala, would be incorporated into Petrocaribe. Gargantuan

Brazil, the world's seventh-largest economy, also sees big economic opportunities in acountry deeply dependent on imported food and open to Brazil's biggest construction firms. Rousseff said that under Maduro, the two countries

would increase their trade, which in 2012 totaled $6 billion. "I'm sure that with President Maduro, I will have the same high-level relationship that I had with President Chvez," Rousseff said.



No IL – Venezuela Unstable Inevitably

Inflation and food shortage causing instability nowRenuncio’13 - Senior Associate, Intelligence & Analysis, London (Irenea, Risk

Advisory, “Venezuela: strategic risk outlook for 2013,” 6/19/2013,http://news.riskadvisory.net/index.php/2013/06/venezuela-strategic-risk-

outlook-for-2013/) //RGP

After three years of a relative absence of civil unrest , protests have dramatically increasedthroughout Venezuela since the election, posing a challenge to Maduro – who won

the April election by only 234,935 votes against opposition leader Henrique Capriles. According to a report released last week

by the independent think tank the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflicts (OVCS) demonstrations were upby 550% between April and March this year. The institution registered at least 403 countrywide

protests in April, compared to 62 in March.¶ A large percentage of the protests since April seemto have been directly associated with the election, with about 40% of the demonstrations

labelled by the OVCS as politically motivated. However, hardship issues have become increasingly

important over that period, with housing, labour rights, insecurity andeconomic hardship accounting for about 50% of the protests in April, according to

the think tank.¶ Although there is no hard data to confirm whether the escalation in protest activity has carried over into May,

local press reports indicate that protests continued last month. In May alone, protests over disruption to water services took

place in Caracas on 20 May, with locals blocking roads on the outskirts of La Urbina and Petare and closing the capital’s

Francisco Fajardo highway.¶ Demonstrations and labour activism have spread toother cities outside the capital too: shopkeepers staged a 48-hour strike, which 1,250 local businesses

adhered to on 27 May in the city of Cumaná (Sucre state) against growing insecurity. Meanwhile, university teachers

associated with the Fapuv union launched a countrywide indefinite strike over pay last week, affecting most of the country’s

universities. Economic hardship driving activism Growing food shortages have also been adriving factor of activism on social networking sites: the hashtag #GolpeAlEstomago (#punch

on your belly) has gained increasing prominence on Twitter over the past few days. Venezuelans have used it to share photos

of empty supermarket shelves, while shortages of basic staples – such as toilet paper – dominate the local headlines. Our local

sources in Venezuela tell us that shortages are this time ‘worse than ever before’ in the country.¶ The opposition, whichremains well organised, has so far created a ‘committee of protection against shortages’ which offers a hotline to give people

advice on where and when to find basic products. The shortages are also affecting Maduro’ssupport base, with in-country sources reporting that moderate Chavistas arealso starting to protest about the issue, criticising Maduro for failing to live upto their expectations.¶ The shortages are one of the most visible results of the dire state of the economy. The

official index of shortages, which measures the lack of commercial goods in supermarkets, rose to 21.3% in the first four

months of the year, four times above average, according to data cited by the Venezuelan Central Bank.¶ Meanwhile, inflation has eroded relative income. According to IMF data, Venezuela’s inflation rate reached over

30% in 2012, one of the highest in the world, and appears to have remained at similar rates this year. In the first four months

of the year, food prices increased by 16.2% and year-on-year inflation reached 29%, according to the Venezuelan Central

Bank.¶ The situation looks unlikely to improve in the coming months, as Maduro seems incapable or unwilling to change

economic policy. Shortly after the election, Maduro announced that the government had decided to import huge volumes of

food and household staples – including 50m rolls of toilet paper.¶ But the measure, while it is likely to partially resolve the

problem in the coming weeks, seems unsustainable. State-controlled prices and capital controls remain in place, and high

inflation rates continue to discourage local production and drive further shortages. Furthermore, the government’sserious mismanagement of state-owned supermarkets, and corruptionthroughout retail supply chains means that food shortages seem likely tocontinue despite two currency devaluations this year.



No Impact – Coup

Coup won’t happen – Maduro denies military action

Fox News Latino, 13 (“Venezuela's Defense Minister Would Never Support A Coup To Unseat Maduro,” Fox News

Latino, 6/2, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/06/02/venezuela-defense-minister-would-never-support-coup-

to-unseat-president-nicolas/)//CC

Venezuela's defense minister would never entertain the idea of supporting amilitary coup to unseat President Nicolas Maduro. Adm. Diego Molero also said that

Venezuela's military takes advice from Cubans but that they do not influence its decisions. Molero's statements on Sunday

during a television talk show appear to reflect official concern over the opposition's recent release of a recording allegedly

showing an influential pro-government figure discussing coup rumors with a Cuban intelligence officer, a conversation that

seemed to highlight Cuban influence in the oil-rich nation. In the lengthy conversation, the purported voice of influential TV

talk show Mario Silva discusses a power struggle between Maduro and National Assembly president Diosdado Cabello, whom

he accuses of conspiring against the president amid rumors of "saber rattling" in the military. The speaker on the recording

suggests Cabello's allies are behind false rumors that Molero might back an attempt to oust Maduro, who is close to Cuba's

leaders and is said by analysts to have less backing in the military. Silva alleged the recording was a fraud, but his show was

pulled from state TV after the conversation's release. Maduro squandered a double-digit lead in less than two weeks, but

defeated challenger Henrique Capriles by a razor-thin margin on April 14 in an election to replace the late President Hugo

Chavez. On Sunday, former Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel asked Molero on his talk

show if "democratic and institutional stability is guaranteed in Venezuela," if a coup attempt were possible.

Molero turned his head, looked straight into the camera and responded: "It'simpossible." "I am a loyal guarantor of the constitutional concept that Maduro remain in the government until the

people decide otherwise," Molero said, adding for emphasis: "It's impossible that such an idea would go through my head."

Capriles has repeatedly complained about what he calls Cuba's growing influence over Venezuela's government and military

under Maduro, whose first postelection foreign trip was to Havana. Cabello has denied plotting againstMaduro and called for unity among the political heirs of Chavez, who are struggling

with widespread discontent over worsening food shortage, rampant power outages and decreasing oil production.



Link Turn – E/E Consolidates Maduro’s Power

DA non-unique and turn – oil investment starting already and further US FDI

critical to prevent Venezuelan economic collapse – this card accounts for neginternal link analysis and concludes FDI still key

Metzker ’13 (Jared, studies American Foreign Policy at the John Hopkins School of Advanced InternationalStudies, 6/17/13, “Analysts Say Oil Could Help Mend US- Venezuela Relations”, Inter Press Service, http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/)//JL On the sidelines of talks held earlier this month in Guatemala by the Organisation of American States (OAS), U.S. Secretary of

State John Kerry met with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua, with Kerry's subsequent statements indicating that

relations could be heading in a friendlier direction.¶ "We agreed today - both of us, Venezuela and the United States - that we

would like to see our countries find a new way forward, establish a more constructive and positive relationship and find the

ways to do that," Kerry said following the meeting with Jaua, which was reportedly requested by the Venezuelans.¶ The

meeting happened on the heels of the release of Timothy Tracy, a U.S. filmmaker whom Venezuela had been holding on

accusations of espionage. His release was interpreted by many as an "olive branch" being offered by the new Venezuelan

government of Nicholas Maduro, whose presidency Washington still has not formally recognised.¶ Only months ago, before

the death of Venezuela's long-time socialist leader Hugo Chavez, any normalisation of relations between Venezuela and the

United States seemed highly unlikely.¶ In 2002, Chavez was briefly removed from power by a military coup d'etat that the U.S.Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had known was imminent. Chavez immediately accused the United States of having played a

part in the event. After his suspicions were confirmed partly valid, his rhetoric grew more scathing.¶ In 2006, he famously told

the United Nations General Assembly that then-U.S. President George W. Bush was "the devil himself".¶ Following Chavez'sdeath from cancer in March, however, his hand-picked successor, Maduro, the former vice-president, has not been as vitriolic

in his posturing vis-a-vis the United States.¶ According to Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a

Washington-based think tank, Maduro has offered "conflicting signals".¶ "Maduro has so far shifted in hisposition toward the U.S. between a moderate approach and a more hard-lineone," Shifter told IPS.¶ The new president's waffling may be a reflection of his tenuousgrip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who

enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes.¶ In addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition

that openly challenges the legitimacy of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavez's own

former political base.¶ Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant strength for Chavez,

more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of Venezuela's parliament and whose supporters believe he was the

rightful heir to the presidency.¶ Maduro's legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideologicalfidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to "emulate"his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.¶

Still, ideological concerns may not ultimately decide the issue. Venezuela has

inherited from Chavez an economy in difficult straits, which continues tosuffer from notorious shortages and high inflation.¶ Oil economy¶ Over half of Venezuela's

federal budget revenues come from its oil industry, which also accounts for 95 percent of the country's exports. Estimated at

77 billion barrels, its proven reserves of black gold are the largest of any nation in the world.¶ Despite a troubledpolitical relationship, its principal customer is the United States, whichimports nearly a million barrels a day from Venezuela.¶ Venezuela's oilindustry has been officially nationalised since the 1970s, and, as president, Chavez further tightened

government control over its production. His government took a greater chunk of revenues and imposed quotas that ensured acertain percentage would always go directly towards aiding Venezuelans via social spending and fuel subsidies.¶ Whilethese measures may be popular with Venezuelans, who pay the lowest price for gasoline in the

world, critics argue such policies hampered growth and led to mismanagement ofPetroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA), the main state-run oil company.¶ The same critics also point to increasing debt

levels, slowdowns in productions and accidents stemming from faulty infrastructure.¶ In order to boost

production, PdVSA agreed in May to accept a number of major loans . This

http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/analysts-say-oil-could-help-mend-u-s-venezuela-relations/





includes one from Chevron , one of the largest U.S. oil companies, which will work with Venezuelans to

develop new extraction sites .¶ "The oil sector is in deep trouble in Venezuela - production is down and the

economic situation is deteriorating," explained Shifter. "They know they need foreign investment toincrease production, and this is in part what has motivated Maduro to reachout ."¶ If its economy continues to falter, Venezuela may be further tempted toembrace the United States, which has the largest, most sophisticated fossil fuel industry in the world. Kerry's

recent words suggest that the administration of President Barack Obama would be waiting with open arms.¶

"Venezuela cannot confront its economic crisis and the United States at thesame time," Diana Villiers Negroponte, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, a Washington think tank, told IPS, "and

we are a pragmatic country which will deal with Maduro if it is in our interests."¶ Indeed, Negroponte said she was"optimistic" about the possibility of rapprochement between the two countries within the nextsix months. She notes a "troika" of issues on which the United States is lookingfor Venezuelan cooperation: counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics andassistance in ridding Colombia of its FARC rebels.¶ Nonetheless, major actions remain to be

taken if normalisation is to even begin, such as the exchange of ambassadors and official U.S. recognition of the Maduro

government. Shifter (who regards the Kerry-Jaua meeting as "a small step") was not optimistic that these larger requirements

will be completed in the short term.¶ "I don't think Washington is going to push hard to send an ambassador to Caracas," he

said. "It will probably take more time to observe the new government and see where it is going."

Liberalization will undercut Maduro’s opponents and increase his credibility - it

will also force other regional partners to diversifyFair Observer, ’13 – a team of researchers, analysts, facilitators and problem-solvers that speak more than a dozen

languages, and have lived, worked, or studied in nearly 50 countries. (Helios Global, “Change in Venezuela Yields Political and

Economic Uncertainty”, Fair Observer, 6/4/13, http://www.fairobserver.com/article/change-venezuela-yields-political-and-economic-

uncertainty)//MC

Despite his declared commitment to toe his predecessor’s ideological line, the gravity of the economic problemsaffecting Venezuela may force Maduro to depart from some of Chavez’spolicies, especially those governing foreign direct investment (FDI) in Venezuela. Maduro

may elect to liberalize certain sectors of the Venezuelan economy and institute other

economic reforms in a possible bid to cater to his more moderate opponents, undercuttingsegments of the opposition and bolstering his own credentials in the process. The

potential loss of a Venezuelan benefactor will also present new opportunities incountries previously dependent on Caracas. Eager to adapt to an evolvinggeopolitical order, countries previously reliant on Venezuela will seek out new partnersand, potentially, sources of FDI.

Openness to US will consolidated Maduro’s power – Kerry proves

WA Post, ’13 (Editorial Board, “ An unexpected lifeline,” 6/12, p.A14, L-N)//CT

NICOLAS MADURO, the former bus driver chosen by Hugo Ch·vez to lead Venezuela after his death, has beenstruggling to consolidate his position since being declared the victor in a questionable presidential

election in April . With the economy stalling, inflation spiking and shortagesspreading, the new president appears at a loss about how to respond, other than to blame

domestic and foreign enemies. Nor has he been able to overcome a serious split in the Chavistamovement between his own, Cuba-backed clique and another based in themilitary.



Perhaps most alarming for Mr. Maduro, an energized opposition has refused to accept the election outcome; its ca-pable

leader, Henrique Capriles, has been gaining sympathy around the region. The president ofneighboring Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, met with Mr. Capriles on May 29, prompting paroxysms of rage from Mr.

Maduro and his aides. Other Latin American governments, while avoiding a confrontation with

Caracas, have made it clear they regard the new leader's legitimacy as questionable; the

regional group Unasur called for an audit of the election results.

One government, however, has chosen to toss Mr. Maduro a lifeline: the UnitedStates. Last week Secretary of State John F. Kerry took time to meet Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua on the

sidelines of an Organization of American States meeting, then announced that the Obamaadministration would like to "find a new way forward" with the Maduroadministration and "quickly move to the appointment of ambassadors." Mr. Kerryeven thanked Mr. Madu-ro for "taking steps toward this encounter" - words that the state-run media trumpeted. What did Mr. Maduro do to earn this assistance from Mr. Kerry? Since Mr. Ch·vez's death in March, the Venezue-lanleader has repeatedly used the United States as a foil. He expelled two U.S. military attaches posted at the embassy inCaracas, claiming that they were trying to destabilize the country; he claimed the CIA was provoking violence in order to justify an invasion; and he called President Obama "the big boss of the devils." A U.S. filmmaker, Timothy Tracy, wasarrested and charged with plotting against the government - a ludicrous allegation that was backed with no evidence.Though Mr. Tracy was put on a plane to Miami on the day of the Kerry-Jaua encounter, Mr. Kerry agreed to the meeting before that gesture.There's nothing wrong, in principle, with diplomatic meetings or even in dispatching an ambassador to a country such as

Venezuela. The State Department has also been meeting with senior opposition leaders and has yet to say it rec-ognizesthe presidential election results. But Mr. Kerry's words amounted to a precious endorsement for

Mr. Maduro - and the Obama administration appears bent on cultivating him regardless of his actions. Perhaps theincreasingly des-perate new leader has secretly promised concessions to Washington on matters such as drug trafficking.But with senior government and military officials involved in the transhipment of cocaine to the United States andEurope, he is unlikely to deliver.In short, this looks like a reset for the sake of reset, launched without regard for good timing or the cause of Venezuelandemocracy.



Impact Turn – Alba Bad

ALBA collapse will increase US influence in Latin America

Gomez, ‘13 (Eduardo J, Special to CNN, “Ahmadinejad's hug and the future of

Chavez's alliance”, 3-12-13, CNN Wire, Internal Bank News, Accessed 7-25-13) ECChávez's death is certainly changing the political calculus in Venezuela , but will italso result in a broader shift that could realign much of Latin America andaffect attitudes toward, and relationships with, the United States? ¶ The answer is likely "yes." ¶ First, thegrouping of nations previously opposing the United States under Chávez'sleftist alliance -- namely the "Alba" alliance, comprised of Venezuela , Cuba,Ecuador, Nicaragua , and Bolivia -- could well wither away, due to Venezuela 'songoing recession and fears that alliance members will no longer haveVenezuela 's financial backing. When combined with reports of Chávez'sexpressed desire to strengthen ties with the Obama administration, regionalhostility towards the United States may decline. ¶ Since assuming office in 1999, Chávez viewed

Washington as an oppressive force manipulating Latin American politics while keeping the region underdeveloped through its dependence on

U.S. resources. In response, Chávez approached like-minded leaders to build a coalition challenging the regional influence of the United States. ¶

By 2005, Bolivia, Nicaragua , Cuba, Honduras and Ecuador joined Chávez'scoalition, which led to the formation of the Bolivian Alliance of the Americas,also known as Alba. Alba served as an alternative to the Free Trade Act of the Americas, with an explicit focus on poverty

reduction, but it also facilitated the unification of these nations in their anti- American sentiments . ¶ With Chávez gone, however, there may be no one leftwho has the clout to keep financing this alliance. Venezuela is Alba's largest financier, contributing

millions in aid to its members as well as o il at low prices. But Venezuelans may believe that with ongoing poverty and inequality, their country's

needs are more important than those of Chávez's small club of nations.



Impact Turn – Iran

Iran will exploit Venezuelan weakness to gain support for its nuclear program -

increasing US liberalization will push Iran out

Berman ’12 - writes about foreign policy and national security issues (Ilan, Forbes,“Confronting Iran's Latin American Ambitions“ 12/04/2013,

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ilanberman/2012/12/04/confronting-irans-latin-

american-ambitions/) //RGP

Over the past year, policymakers in Washington have woken up to a new threat toU.S. security. Since October of 2011, when law enforcement agencies foiled a plot by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to

assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the nation’s capital, U.S. officials have begun to pay attention inearnest to Iran’s growing activities and influence in the Western Hemisphere.¶

f . The Islamic Republic, it turns out, has made serious inroads into Latin America since the mid-2000s, beginning with its vibrant strategic partnership with the regime of Venezuelan strongman

Hugo Chavez. Today, Iran enjoys warm diplomatic ties not only to Venezuela, but to

similarly sympathetic governments in Bolivia and Ecuador as well. It has begun to exploit the region’sstrategic resource wealth to fuel its nuclear program. And it is building an operational

presence in the region that poses a direct danger to U.S. security.¶ Exactly how significant this threat is represents the subject

of a new study released in late November by the U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee. That report,

entitled A Line In The Sand, documents the sinister synergies that have been created inrecent years between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and radicalregional regimes and actors—from Venezuela to Mexican drug cartels—on the other. Some of

these contacts, the study notes, are financial in nature, as Iran seeks to leverage Latin America’s

permissive political and fiscal environments to skirt sanctions and continue

to engage in international commerce amid tightening Western sanctions. But

these contacts could easily become operational as well. The report suggests that “the standoff with Iran over its nuclearprogram, and the uncertainty of whether Israel might attack Iran drawing the United States into a confrontation, only

heightens concern that Iran or its agents would attempt to exploit the porousSouthwest border for retaliation.”¶ The U.S. response, meanwhile, is still nascent. To date, only one piece

of Congressional legislation—the Countering Iran in the Western Hemisphere Act of 2012—has seriously taken up the issue ofIran’s penetration of the Americas, and the potentially adverse implications for U.S. security. Fortunately, the Act has found a

receptive ear among many in Congress, and is now likely to pass the Senate with only minor modifications during the current

lame duck session of Congress. Yet, in and of itself, the Act does not constitute a comprehensive strategy for competing with

Iran in the Americas—or for diluting its influence there.¶ To the contrary, America’s strategic profile in Latin America is now

poised to constrict precipitously. As a result of looming defense cuts, and with the specter of additional, and ruinous,

“sequester” provisions on the horizon, the Pentagon is now actively planning a more modest global profile. To that end, back in

May, General Douglas Fraser, the outgoing head of U.S. Southern Command, the combatant command responsible for the

Americas, told lawmakers that it plans to retract to Central America and focus predominantly on the threats posed by the

region’s rampant drug and arms trades. In other words, the United States is getting out of the

business of competing for strategic influence in Latin America, and doing so atprecisely the time that Iran is getting serious about it .¶ That could end up being a costly

mistake. As the findings of the Homeland Security Committee’s study indicate, Iran’s presence south of the U.S. border

represents more than a mere annoyance. It is, rather, a potential front for Iranian actionagainst the United States—one that could well be activated if and when thecurrent cold war between Iran and the West over t he Islamic Republic’snuclear program heats up in earnest. Washington needs to be prepared should that happen.¶ Better

yet, it needs to craft a proactive approach to confronting Iran influence and activity south of our border. That, after all, is thesurest way for us to avoid having to face Iran and its proxies here at home.



Iranian proliferation causes nuclear war.

Sokolsky ‘4 - executive dir. of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, (Henry

(Ed.), “Taking Proliferation Seriously,” Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured

Destruction, Its Origins and Practice, November 2004, p.351, Google Books)

If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations with the Gulf Coordination Council states and with Iraq, Turkey,

and Egypt, Iran's acquisition of even a nuclear weapons breakout capability couldprompt one or more of these states to try to acquire a nuclear weapons optionof their own. Similarly, if the U.S. fails to hold Pyongyang accountable for its violation of the NPT or lets Pyongyang hold

on to one or more nuclear weapons while appearing to reward its violation with a new deal--one that heeds North Korea's

demand for a nonaggression pact and continued construction of the two light water reactors--South Korea and Japan (and

later, perhaps, Taiwan) will have powerful cause to question Washington's security commitment to them and their own

pledges to stay non-nuclear. In such a world, Washington's worries would not be limited to gauging the military capabilities of

a growing number of hostile, nuclear, or near-nuclear-armed nations. In addition, it would have to gauge the reliability of a

growing number of nuclear or near-nuclear friends. Washington might still be able to assemble coalitions, but with more

nations like France, with nuclear options of their own, it would be much, much more iffy. The amount of

international intrigue such a world would generate would also easily exceed

what our diplomats and leaders could manage or track. Rather than worry about using force for

fear of producing another Vietnam, Washington and its very closest allies are more likely to grow weary of working closely

with others and view military options through the rosy lens of their relatively quick victories in Desert Storm, Kosovo,

Operation Iraqi Freedom, and Just Cause. This would be a world disturbingly similar to that of

1914 but with one big difference: It would be spring-loaded to go nuclear .



Ext Iran-Venezuelan Relations Brink

Venezuelan-Iran relations on brink now – political turnover.

Berman ‘13 (Ilan, VP of the American Foreign Policy Council in WA, DC,March 12, 2013, "Hugo Chavez's Death Is a Blow

to Iran," US News, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/03/12/after-chavez-a-challenge-for-

iran)//SL

Even so, the departure of Chavez is bound to be a blow to Tehran. Without its most reliable broker, Irannow faces a region in profound political flux. During his 14 years in office, Chavez hadserved as the champion of anti-Americanism in Latin America. Now that mantle of leadership,

coveted by power-hungry regional leaders like Ecuador's Correa, is up for grabs. So, too, is the prevailing attitude toward

Tehran.? Coming weeks will see the emergence of a new regime in Venezuela—one

that, by all accounts, will look strikingly similar to the one that preceded it. Indeed, late last year, an ailing Chavez anointed his

anti-American vice president, Nicolas Maduro, as his heir apparent, thereby guaranteeing a preservation of his "Bolivarian"

ideas. But Maduro now faces a snap election next month, and could see his power diminished byinternal challengers as well as an increasingly capable Venezuelan opposition. In other

words, for the first time in nearly 15 years, the current regime's hold on power isn'tassured beyond the shadow of a doubt.? Neither is the relationship between Caracas and

Tehran. While Maduro can be counted on to preserve Venezuela's revolutionary character, the closeness of its

ties to the Iranian regime is suddenly an open question—one made all the more acute by the fact that

Chavez's Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will also leave the political scene in just a few months, when his term in

office ends this June.

venezuela politics da 3 - michigan7 2013

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