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Invitation to Tender

DETAILS

Australian Energy Market Operator LimitedABN 94 072 010 327Level 22, 530 William StreetMelbourne VIC 3000TEL: 03 9609 8000FAX: 03 9609 8080

Project: Gas Demand Forecasting Services (2011-2013)

AEMO Project Manager: Emi GuiPrincipal Analyst – Energy ForecastingAustralian Energy Market OperatorTel: 61 3 9609 8329Email: [email protected]

Closing Date: 23 March 2011

Validity Period: 30 days from the Closing Date

mailto:[email protected]


Table of Contents

SECTION A: INVITATION TO TENDER..........................................................................................................2SECTION B: INFORMATION FOR TENDERERS...........................................................................................2SECTION C: ITT CONDITIONS.......................................................................................................................5SECTION D: TENDER FORM..........................................................................................................................9

SCHEDULE 1...........................................................................................................................11SCHEDULE 2...........................................................................................................................12SCHEDULE 3...........................................................................................................................13SCHEDULE 4...........................................................................................................................14SCHEDULE 5...........................................................................................................................15SCHEDULE 6...........................................................................................................................16SCHEDULE 7...........................................................................................................................18

SECTION E: PROJECT DESCRIPTION.......................................................................................................19SECTION F: CONTRACT TO BE EXECUTED.............................................................................................25

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SECTION A: INVITATION TO TENDERA.1 Background

AEMO, a company limited by guarantee, commenced operations on 1 July 2009, bringing together the functions formerly carried out by the following organisations:

National Electricity Market Management Company (NEMMCO) Victorian Energy Networks Corporation (VENCorp) Electricity Supply industry Planning Council (ESIPC) Retail Energy Market Company (REMCO) (SA operations only, as of 1 October 2009) Gas Market Company (GMC) Gas Retail Market Operator (GRMO)

AEMO’s functions include: Market and system operator of the National Electricity Market (NEM) in accordance with the

National Electricity Rules; Market Operator of a number of retail gas markets in eastern and southern Australia in

accordance with the National Gas Rules; Market and system operator of the Victorian wholesale gas market in accordance with the

National Gas Rules; National transmission planning for electricity transmission networks; Establishment of a short term trading market for gas; Transmission planning for gas transmission networks in Victoria.

With its broad national focus for the future, AEMO’s objectives are to promote efficient investment in and operation of Australia’s electricity and gas services for the long-term interests of consumers with respect to price, quality, safety, reliability and security of energy supply.

AEMO’s head office is in Melbourne.

A.2 Gas Demand Forecasting

Annually AEMO publishes planning reports. Among these are the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), which is published by the 31st December of each calendar year, and the Victorian Annual Planning Report Update (VAPR Update) which is published by the 30th November of each calendar year.

In order for AEMO to prepare these publications, AEMO seeks the services of a consultant to provide independent information on gas demand forecasts, prepared by competent persons using sound methodologies, the best available input data and appropriate assumptions.

A.3 Invitation to Tender

TENDERS ARE INVITED for the delivery of Gas Demand Forecasting Services (2011-2013) particularly described in Section E.

SECTION B: INFORMATION FOR TENDERERSB.1 The Tenderer Must Inform Itself

Prior to submitting a Tender, Tenderers must have informed themselves fully concerning the nature, extent and requirements of this ITT and the Project to be delivered, and made all examinations, investigations, interpretations, deductions and conclusions as to the costs, procedure and any difficulties in doing so.

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B.2 Queries

Tenderers must address any queries to the AEMO Project Manager in electronic mail.

B.3 Conditions of Tendering

Tenderers must comply with Section C.

B.4 Nature of ITT

This ITT is an invitation to treat and is not intended to have any contractual effect. No contract will be entered into until a contract based on the document contained in Section F is entered into as contemplated by Section C17.

B.5 Confidentiality

This ITT contains confidential information about AEMO and its activities. It is provided to enable Tenderers to submit Tenders. Tenderers are not permitted to use any information contained in this ITT for any other purpose. Tenderers must take all reasonable steps (both physically and electronically) to protect the confidentiality of this ITT and all communications arising out of it, or the Tenderer’s submission of a Tender.

B.6 Glossary

Terms used in this ITT have the meanings given to them below, or in the Details:

Addenda Any document issued after the date of this ITT and labelled as an “Addendum” to this ITT; collectively known as “Addenda”.

AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator Limited ABN 94 072 010 327. References to AEMO include, where the context requires, AEMO’s employees, officers, contractors, consultants, advisers and other persons authorised to act for AEMO.

Business Days A day other than Saturday, Sunday and any other day not taken to be a public holiday in Victoria.

ITT / Invitation to Tender Is the collection of documents incorporating: Section A: Invitation to Tender Section B: Information for Tenderers Section C: ITT Conditions Section D: Tender Form Section E: Description of Project Section F: Draft Contractand all schedules, attachments and appendices to those documents.

GSOO Gas statement of Opporunities.

Project The delivery of Gas Demand Forecasting Services (2011-2013) more particularly described in Section E.

Statement of Compliance The schedule in Section D by that title.

Tender The offer submitted by a Tenderer to deliver the Project.

Tenderer Any person in receipt of this ITT.

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Tender Period The time commencing between a Tenderer’s receipt of this ITT and the closing time for receipt of Tenders by AEMO.

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SECTION C: ITT CONDITIONSC.1 Submitting a Tender

(a) Lodgement Requirements

A Tenderer must submit a Tender that meets the following requirements:

The Tender must be completed (that is, Section D: Tender Form and all relevant schedules are completed) and signed (in the case of a body corporate, by a duly authorised officer), and all pages of the Tender initialled.

A Tenderer must lodge a separate Tender Form for each Service offered.

One electronic copy (CD) in Pdf or Excel format must be submitted in electronic mail to the AEMO Project Manager.

The Tender must remain open for acceptance by AEMO for at least the Validity Period.

Additional documentation may be submitted with their Tender if, in the Tenderers’ opinion, it is necessary for a proper understanding of their Tender.

(b) Statement of Compliance

The Tender Form and schedules have been developed to enable AEMO to evaluate tenders in accordance with the evaluation criteria detailed in Section C.9.

If a Tenderer cannot comply with any element of the Tender Form or schedules, the Tenderer must specify in the Statement of Compliance the nature of, and reasons for, the non-compliance.

Tenderers should note that a failure to comply with any of the lodgement requirements may lead to rejection of their Tender.

C.2 Facsimile Tenders not Acceptable

Tenders submitted by facsimile will not be accepted.

C.3 Information Provided by AEMO

Upon submission of their Tender, Tenderers are taken to have:

carefully examined and satisfied themselves of the requirements of this ITT;

examined all information relevant to the risks, contingencies and other circumstances relevant to the Project, as may be available by making reasonable enquiries;

satisfied themselves as to the correctness and sufficiency of their Tender; and

informed themselves of all matters and things necessary for the proper performance of any resulting contract to the extent that no charge in excess of, or in addition to, the prices tendered will be claimed from AEMO.

C.4 Disclaimer

Except to the extent required by law, AEMO does not accept any responsibility to Tenderers or third parties, under the law of contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise, for any loss or damage whatsoever that may arise from any information provided by AEMO.

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AEMO accepts no responsibility for any interpretation that may be placed on this ITT.

The information contained in this ITT is furnished for the convenience of Tenderers. Any information provided by AEMO is not guaranteed and Tenders must be based on Tenderers’ own investigations and determinations. AEMO makes no warranties or representations on the contents, or adequacy, of any information provided to Tenderers.

C.5 No Liability

Except where it would be illegal to do so, AEMO is not liable in any way for the accuracy or completeness of this ITT, or liable for any loss or damage of whatever kind (whether foreseeable or not) however arising, suffered or incurred by any person in connection with this ITT (including by reason of any negligence, default or lack of care).

C.6 Queries, Discrepancies or Errors

If Tenderers find any discrepancy, error, or have any doubt as to the meaning or completeness of this ITT and they wish to clarify the discrepancy, error or doubt, they should notify the AEMO ITT Manager in writing at least 14 days before the Closing Date, whereupon AEMO may issue an Addendum clarifying the discrepancy, error, or query (as the case may be) in accordance with Section C.7.

C.7 Addenda

AEMO may issue an Addendum clarifying any matter contained in this ITT at any time not less than 5 Business Days prior to the Closing Date. AEMO will issue formally numbered Addenda to each Tenderer in identical form.

No representation or explanation to Tenderers as to the meaning of this ITT, or as to anything to be done or not be done by the successful Tenderer will be taken to be included in this ITT unless it is contained in an Addendum.

C.8 Tenders Commercial-in-Confidence

Tenders will be treated as confidential and will not be disclosed outside AEMO unless it is:

required by law, or in the course of legal proceedings;

requested by any regulatory or other government authority having jurisdiction over AEMO, or its activities; or

to AEMO’s external advisers, consultants or insurers.

C.9 Tender Evaluation

Without prejudice to AEMO’s right to reject non-conforming Tenders, during the tender evaluation process, AEMO may seek clarification from Tenderers of matters raised and rectification or resolution of errors or omissions in Tenders. Tenderers may be required to attend meetings with AEMO at a time and place to be notified by the AEMO Project Manager to review and discuss any such matters.

The criteria to be used in the tender evaluation process may include, but will not be limited to:

quantitative and qualitative review of information provided in, and comparison of, Tenders;

best value for money;

capacity to deliver the Project;

working methods and Tenderers’ track record in the delivery of similar projects;

Tenderers’ personnel, resources, facilities and future serviceability capacity;

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Tenderer’s financial stability and any risks associated with a Tender; and

any other factors AEMO considers to be relevant.

AEMO may, in its absolute discretion, accept non-conforming Tenders provided that any departure from the requirements of this ITT is identified and fully described in the Statement of Compliance.

C.10 AEMO not bound to proceed

AEMO is under no obligation to proceed with, or accept any Tender, to complete the process outlined in this ITT or ultimately purchase any goods or services that comprise any part of the Project.

C.11 No obligation to debrief

AEMO is under no obligation to debrief any Tenderer as to AEMO’s evaluation of Tenders, or give any reason for the acceptance of or non-acceptance of any Tender.

C.12 No Reimbursement for costs of tendering

No Tenderer is entitled to be reimbursed for any expense or loss incurred in the preparation and submission of its Tender or for any costs incurred in attending meetings with AEMO during the tender evaluation process.

C.13 Ownership of Tenders

AEMO will retain and own all Tenders lodged as a result of this ITT. Apart from AEMO’s right to copy Tenders for the purposes of evaluation, Tenderers’ intellectual property rights in their Tenders are not affected by AEMO’s rights under this Section C13.

C.14 Acceptance of Tender

No Tender shall be taken to have been accepted by AEMO until notification of acceptance has been given in writing by AEMO to the successful Tenderer.

C.15 No publicity

Tenderers must not make any public or media announcement about this ITT or the outcome of this ITT without AEMO’s prior permission.

C.16 No collusion or dealings with competitors

Tenderers must ensure that they (and their principals, employees, agents and contractors) do not:

(a) discuss this ITT with any other person they know has received this ITT or might reasonably be expected to have received this ITT; or

(b) engage in any conduct that is designed to, or might have the effect of, lessening competition in the supply to AEMO of the Project.

Tenderers who wish to engage in legitimate teaming or sub-contracting discussions with persons who might deliver the Project must gain AEMO’s prior approval to do so.

C.17 Contract to be executed

AEMO proposes that the Project be delivered in accordance with a contract substantially in the form contained in Section F.

Tenderers must not include their own standard or general conditions of contract with their Tenders. Tenderers who wish to propose any change to the proposed contract should include their comments in

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the Statement of Compliance and provide a copy of the document showing the exact change proposed by using the “Track Changes” function in Microsoft Word.

Tenderers will be taken to have accepted the contract in its current form in Section F if Tenderers have failed to provide a copy of the contract marked in this way.

AEMO requires the terms of the contract to be concluded and the document signed by the successful Tenderer within 14 days of AEMO’s notification of acceptance of the relevant Tender. Tenderers should note that AEMO reserves the right to reconsider rejected Tenders if the contract is not finalised in those 14 days.

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SECTION D: TENDER FORM

Gas Demand Forecasting Services (2011-2013)

To: AEMO LtdLevel 22, 530 Collins StreetMelbourne VIC 3000

(“AEMO”)

Tender

From:

Tenderer:

ABN:

Address:

Contact Person: Name:

Title:

Telephone No:

Facsimile No:

E-mail:

1. OfferThe Tenderer hereby tenders to provide the Project in accordance with the requirements of the ITT as specified in the Statement of Compliance in Schedule 1. The Tenderer must ensure the hard and electronic copy of its Tender are identical and agrees that AEMO may rely on either version when evaluating this Tender.

2. Agency/Joint TenderThe Tenderer is/is not1 acting as agent or trustee for another person, or lodging a Tender jointly with other persons.

(If the Tender is acting as an agent or trustee, full details must be provided in this section)

3. Experience in the Delivery of the ProjectThe Tenderer provides in:

Schedule 2, details of its experience in the delivery of goods or services that are similar to the Project;

Schedule 3, details of the personnel (and their experience) the Tenderer intends to utilise in the delivery of the Project.

3 PricesShould AEMO accept this Tender, the Tenderer acknowledges that the Tenderer will deliver the Project for the prices specified in Schedule 4.

1 Delete as appropriate.

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4. ApproachThe Tenderer provides in Schedule 5 details of its approach to the delivery of the Project.

5. Conflicts of InterestThe Tenderer provides in Schedule 6 a copy of declarations of any conflicts of interest by the personnel detailed in Schedule 3 and how they are to be addressed.

6. Validity PeriodThis Tender and the offer it contains will remain open for acceptance by AEMO for the Validity Period.

7. Contract (optional)The Tenderer provides in Schedule 7 a copy of AEMO’s proposed contract with the Tenderer’s proposed changes in “track changes” mode.

8. Addenda to Tender Documents (only if Addenda received)In the preparation of its Tender, the Tenderer acknowledges having received the following Addenda, if any, to the Tender Documents:

Addendum No. Dated

Addendum No. Dated

Addendum No. Dated

NOTE: Capitalised terms in this Tender Form and Schedules are defined in the ITT.

Dated this day of 201

EXECUTED by [NAME OF TENDERER] by its duly appointed representative in the presence of:

)))

..............................................................……..Witness

..............................................................……..Name of witness (print)

..............................................................……..Chief Executive Officer

..............................................................……..Name of Chief Executive Officer (print)

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SCHEDULE 1

STATEMENT OF COMPLIANCE

I [Tenderer] confirm that this Tender conforms in every respect with the ITT.

OR

I [Tenderer] confirm that this Tender does not conform with the ITT in the following ways:

1.

Tenderer's name _________________________________

Tenderer's signature _________________________________

Date _________________________________

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SCHEDULE 2

DETAILS OF EXPERIENCE

Provide details of:

1. the Tenderer’s general background;

2. relevant experience, including particulars of previous contracts for the delivery of projects similar to the Project; and

3. details of referees AEMO may contact for the purpose of verification.

Tenderer's name _________________________________


Date _________________________________

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SCHEDULE 3

PERSONNEL

Name each person the Tenderer intends to employ in the delivery of the Project, including and any proposed sub-contractors and detail their relevant experience.

Tenderer's name _________________________________


Date _________________________________

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SCHEDULE 4

PRICES

Tenderer's name _________________________________


Date _________________________________

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SCHEDULE 5

APPROACH

Provide details of the Tenderer’s approach to the delivery of the Project.

Tenderer's name _________________________________


Date _________________________________

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SCHEDULE 6

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

PART A: CONFLICTS OF INTEREST DECLARATION

Each person proposed to be employed in the delivery of the Project should complete a declaration in the form below and submit it with the Tender.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST DECLARATION

I, [name], of [address], [occupation]:

1. ACKNOWLEDGE that I am assisting [Tenderer] in the proposed delivery of the Project to AEMO (“the Project”).

2. DECLARE that I am not a member, employee or member of staff of the Australian Energy Regulator, or the Australian Energy Market Commission.

3. DECLARE that, to the best of my knowledge, information and belief2, I do not have:

(a) any interest3 in a Registered Participant4, or other person, company or business who might be affected by the Project;

(b) any immediate relatives5 with a financial interest in a Registered Participant, or other person, company or business who might be affected by the Project;

(c) any personal bias6 or inclination that would in any way affect my contribution to the Project;

(d) any personal obligation, allegiance or loyalty that would in any way affect my contribution to the Project;

(e) any engagement by a Registered Participant or other person, company or business that could in any way compromise or otherwise affect my contribution to the Project;

(f) any other concern that could in any way compromise or otherwise affect my contribution to the Project,

(collectively called a “conflict”),

2 You are expected to complete this Declaration based on your current knowledge, information and belief; you are not required to make further inquiries.

3 Defined in the Rules as either being a director, employee or partner in a Registered Participant, or of any related body corporate of a Registered Participant, or any direct or indirect financial interest (whether as shareholder, partner or other equity participant) in any Registered Participant or a related body corporate of a Registered Participant, other than an interest of less than 0.1% of the net shareholders funds of that entity (as determined on the date the declarant is appointed).

4 A list of Registered Participants is available on AEMO’s website: www.aemo.com.au. 5 Defined as a spouse (whether it be de facto or de jure), or child.6 Potential issues include whether you have a relative or close friend who is a senior executive for a Registered Participant, or other

person, company or business affected by the Project.

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EXCEPT FOR THE FOLLOWING:

Person Affected Nature of Conflict

I UNDERTAKE to make a further declaration detailing any conflict, potential conflict or apparent conflict that may arise during the Project.

Signed ...................................................................... Dated ..........................................

PART B: HOW EACH CONFLICT IS TO BE ADDRESSED

The Tenderer must outline how any conflicts of interest identified in the various Declarations submitted with the Tender are to be addressed.

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SCHEDULE 7

PROPOSED CONTRACT CHANGES

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SECTION E: PROJECT DESCRIPTIONE.1 Purpose

Gas demand forecasts shall contain two parts: Part I -Gas Demand Forecasts for Eastern and Southern Australia and Part II -Gas Demand Forecasts for Victorian Declared Transmission System

E.2 Description of Project

Part I Gas Demand Forecasts for Eastern and South Eastern Australia

The consultant will be required to provide forecasts and reports on gas demand of the eastern and south eastern Australia each year from 2011 to 2013, satisfying the following requirements.

E.2.1. Forecast period, demand groups and demand areas

Annual demand for 21 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the annual demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2031 inclusive.

Annual summer and winter peak day demand for 11 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the peak demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2021 inclusive.

Demand is to be forecasted and aggregated by demand areas – MEL, LMP, SWP, TGP, EGP, MAP, MSP, SEA, ADL, ACT, SYD, RBP, QGP, SWQP, CGP, NQGP, BAL; and

by demand group - Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales (including Australian Capital Territory), Queensland and South Australia.

E.2.2. Forecast categories

The detailed projections should be broken down by categories or sectors from which the consultant could derive the best quality of forecasts. An example of the possible category breakdown is tabulated as set out below:

Residential;

Commercial;

Small Industrial;

Large Industrial Demand, including large feedstock and mineral processing demand, excluding LNG exports.

The gas demand projections should include gas demand from co-generation and tri-generation facilities.

E.2.3. Forecast Scenarios

The demand forecasts for the base year 2011 are required for three scenarios Scenario A –Fast Rate of Change, Scenario C – Moderate Rate of Change and Scenario E – Slow Rate of Change, as set out as below.

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario E

Scenario title Fast rate of change Uncertain world Modest rate of change

Independent Climate Action

Slow rate of change

Economic Growth High High Medium Low Low

Carbon Target High Low Medium High Low

Gas Prices High Low Medium Medium High Low

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The full detailed description of the five above mentioned scenarios can be found in the section 2.3 of the ‘2011 National Transmission Network Development Plan - Consultation Paper7’ published on the AEMO website.

The service provided is requested to provide the cost of developing forecasts for extra two scenarios Scenario B–Uncertain World and Scenario D–Independent Climate Action, identifying differences in assumptions, and an approach for developing additional scenario forecasts.

AEMO may provide different forecast scenarios on a yearly basis when necessary.

E.2.4. Annual and peak day demand scenarios forecasts

Annual demand scenarios forecasts

Annual demand forecasts for each demand group, and for each demand area individually are required for each forecast category and for each year for 21 calendar years from the base year and for each demand scenario.

Annual peak day demand scenarios forecasts

Forecast system maximum daily (i.e. peak day) gas demands are required for each forecast category and for 11 years from the base year for both winter and summer peaks by demand area and by demand group for each demand scenario; and based on:

1 in 2 winter peak day and 1 in 20 winter peak day weather conditions; and 1 in 2 summer peak day and 1 in 20 summer peak day weather conditions.

E.2.5. Diversity information (optional)

With peak gas demand forecasts for large industrial demand, core demand and GPG, each being developed separately via different processes, combining these forecasts into peak “total demand” forecasts presents a challenge due to the natural diversity of these consumer groups.

The consultant is requested to undertake the following with respect to this problem of peak gas demand diversity:

describe this diversity issue; and present assumptions and methodology to address the diversity issue; and present options for progressing the diversity issue going forward

The diversity issues between demand groups and between demand areas within a demand group are also encouraged to be discussed when appropriate.

E.2.6. Forecast Methodology

The consultant will be required to provide detailed information on the assumptions, methodologies, forecasting models, limitations and the analysis of forecasting results.

The following should also be noted:

forecast methodologies should be able to reflect gas prices-demand elasticity; consistency with AEMO’s scenario assumptions is essential in relation to economic, climate

change policy forecasts and carbon policy forecasts; historical gas demand data provided by AEMO is intended to be collected based on existing

network tariffs. This may change depending on the success of the approach.

7 ‘2011 National Transmission Network Development Plan - Consultation Paper’ under 2011 National Transmission Network Development Plan Consultation at the AEMO website http://www.aemo.com.au/planning/ntndp2011consult.html.

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E.2.7. Part I Deliverables

Delivery of the Project includes the provision of the following Deliverables:

Deliverable Description

Gas Demand Forecasts for Eastern and South Eastern Australia

Annual demand and annual peak day demand scenarios forecasts outlined in section E.2.4 in excel format.

Gas Demand Forecasts for Eastern and South Eastern Australia Report

Written discussion of context, logic, inputs, assumptions, methodologies and analysis of forecasting results that lead to the quantitative projections of Gas Demand Forecasts for Eastern and South Eastern Australia, and its limitations.

Energy policy trends and discussion

Written discussion of the future energy policy trends and impact on gas demand.

Diversity issue (optional) Written discussion of diversity issue on the forecast category level, and on the inter-regional level when possible.

Survey results and discussion (where applicable)

Survey result summary and written discussion of the future trends and impact on gas demand.

Notes to AEMO (where applicable)

Consultant may be required to provide documents explaining special issues raised by AEMO such as double-counting or missing demand from some gas consumers, confidentiality issues.

Format: All documents and spreadsheets to be provided in electronic format.

To maintain confidentiality of relevant third party information, the consultant may be required to adjust the Deliverables, as directed by AEMO, for publication in the 2011 GSOO or on the AEMO website.

Part II Gas Demand Forecasts for Victorian Declared Transmission System

The consultant will be required to provide gas demand forecast on the total volume of gas withdrawn from the Victorian Declared Transmission System (DTS) for residential, commercial and industrial end-uses but excluding interstate imports / exports and withdrawals into / injections from storage facilities.

Note that Victorian DTS demand is a subset of Part I Victoria gas demand and the consistency between two sets of forecasts need to be maintained.

The gas demand forecasts are required for each year for 11 calendar years from the base year, satisfying the following requirements:

E.2.8. Forecast period and areas

Annual system demand for 11 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2021 inclusive;

Annual peak day system demand for 11 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2021 inclusive;

Annual peak hourly system demand for 11 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2021 inclusive;

Monthly gas system demand for the calendar year 2011 and 2012 (from January to December); Monthly peak day system demand for the calendar year 2011 and 2012 (from January to

December);

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Monthly peak hour system demand for the calendar year 2011 and 2012 (from January to December);

Annual GPG demand for 11 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2021 inclusive;

Annual peak day GPG demand for 11 calendar years from the base year; the first base year starts from 2011, the demand forecasts will be from 2011 to 2021 inclusive;

System demand and peak system demand is to be forecasted by aggregate and by System Withdrawal Zones – Ballarat, Geelong, Gippsland, Melbourne, Northern and Western.

E.2.9. Forecast categories

The detailed projections should be broken down by categories and explicitly tabulated as set out below:

Tariff D (comprised of large to very large commercial and industrial customers with annual loads greater than 10,000GJ grouped by ANZSIC code and summarised into broader industry groups).8 The forecasts should include and separately identify: a) projected demand from planned major industrial/commercial gas intensive projects; b) gas fired cogeneration including growth from existing plant, new projects under construction and those under consideration; c) load growth resulting from extension or expansion of both the gas distribution and transmission systems.

Tariff V (comprised of residential and small to medium sized commercial and industrial customers with annual loads less than 10,000GJ). The forecasts should include projected load growth resulting from extension or expansion of both the gas distribution and transmission systems.

GPG gas demand, required for the total DTS only.

Compressor fuel annual and peak gas demand for the total DTS only.

E.2.10. Forecast Scenarios

The forecast scenarios and requirements are consistent with the scenarios and requirements described in Section E.2.3.

E.2.11. Demand scenarios forecasts

Annual system demand and annual peak day demand scenarios forecasts

Annual demand forecasts for the total of the Victorian DTS, and individual values for each category and for each System Withdrawal Zone are required for each calendar year and for each demand scenario.

Annual system demand for 11 calendar years from the base year by Tariff D and Tariff V for each demand scenario;

Peak day system demand for 11 calendar years from the base year for each demand scenario based on 1 in 2 peak day and 1 in 20 peak day weather conditions;

Peak hour system demand for 11 calendar years from the base year for each demand scenario based on 1 in 2 peak hour and 1 in 20 peak hour weather conditions.

Monthly demand scenarios forecasts for the calendar year 2011 and 2012

Monthly gas system demand for the calendar year 2011 and 2012 (from January to December) for each System Withdrawal Zone and for each scenario;

Monthly peak day system demand for the calendar year 2011 and 2012 (from January to December) for each System Withdrawal Zone and for each scenario based on 1 in 2 peak day and 1 in 20 peak day weather conditions;

Monthly peak hour system demand for the calendar year 2011 and 2012 (from January to December) for each System Withdrawal Zone and for each scenario based on 1 in 2 peak hour and 1 in 20 peak hour weather conditions.

8 ANZSIC: Australian and New Zealand Standard Industry Classification

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GPG gas demand scenarios forecasts

Annual GPG gas demand for 11 calendar years from the base year for each demand scenario;

Annual peak day GPG gas demand for 11 calendar years from the base year based on 1 in 2 peak day and 1 in 20 peak day weather conditions;

A discussion of demand from gas power generation, on system peak days and peak hours is also required. This should identify significant drivers of demand from gas power generation, such as the installation of new gas power generation plants, electricity spot market prices, government policies and transmission outages. This discussion should be focused on the impact of gas power generation demand on peak day gas demand. The consultant is to provide a range of possible gas power generation demands which could be expected on a peak demand day, based on historical information.

E.2.12. Part II Deliverables

Delivery of the Project includes the provision of the following Deliverables:

Deliverable Description

Gas Demand Forecasts for Victorian DTS

Victorian DTS annual system demand, annual peak day demand, annual peak hourly demand by System Withdrawal Zone by scenario for 11 calendar years from the base year; monthly demand scenarios forecasts by System Withdrawal Zone by scenario for 2011 and 2012; GPG gas demand scenarios forecasts for 11 calendar years from the base year outlined in section E.2.11in excel format.

Gas Demand Forecasts for Victorian DTS Report

Written discussion of the context, logic, inputs, assumptions, methodologies and limitations that lead to the quantitative projections of Victorian DTS Gas Demand Forecasts by forecast categories.

Energy policy trends and discussions

Written discussion of the future energy policy trends and impact on gas demand.

Survey results and discussions (where applicable)

Survey result summary and written discussion of the future trends and impact on gas demand.

Notes to AEMO (where applicable) Consultant may be required to provide documents explaining special issues raised by AEMO.

Format: All documents and spreadsheets to be provided in electronic format.

To maintain confidentiality of relevant third party information, the consultant may be required to adjust the Deliverables, as directed by AEMO, for publication in the 2011 VAPR Updates or on the AEMO website.

E.3 Timetable

The following timetable applies for the contract period from 2011 to 2013 (all times are indicative and will be

agreed and finalised upon the execution of contract:

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Deliverable / Milestone Due Date

Start of consultant’s work – Part I by 1 April each year

Provision of draft report to AEMO – Part I by 1 June each year

Provision of final report to AEMO / work concluded – Part I by 20 June each year

Start of consultant’s work – Part II by 15 June each year

Provision of draft report to AEMO – Part II by 1 August each year

Provision of final report to AEMO / work concluded – Part II by 15 August each year

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SECTION F: CONTRACT TO BE EXECUTED

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