vision of the future – roadibrom summit shanghai convergence digital broadcasting-mobile connected...

Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Shanghai

Convergence Digital Broadcasting-

Mobile

CONNECTED PLANET A vision of the futureA vision of the future

Yongqin ZengPhilips ResearchShanghai

Arthur WeynsVP Global AffairsEindhoven

2Vision of the future – ROADIBROM Summit Shanghai

11

What does the future look like?

End-user needs

Technology trends

FUTURE

Disruptive

events


Disruptive events

Timing of disruptive events are unpredictable by definition, however most events are known already:– Global warming energy efficiency, home office, lower

mobility, trade regionalisation/localisation

– Migration focus on regional development

– Terrorist attacks cocooning, security vs privacy

– Cyber crime central protection, off line archives

– China & India “the” 2 superpowers

– ….


End user Needs & Trends

• Consumers are increasingly looking for:– Personal empowerment ( freedom, control, simplicity)

– Engaging in experiences (multi-sensorial)

– Creating experimentation and discovery (creativity)

– Fluid & open social grouping (sharing, belonging, privacy)

– Personal care & well being (monitoring, security)

– Environmental neutral footprint (sustainable planet)


Technology Trends .Future technology landscape largely defined by:

– Law of Moore (integration level) & Edholm (data rates)

– Broadband roll-out– Progress of compression techniques– Progress of wireless – Digitalisation– Peer-to-peer– Sensing and sensor networks– …

… leading to:– Internet: all encompassing information source– Ubiquitous (wireless) broadband access

always online– Appliance & service interoperability– Ambient intelligence– Central & off line personal archive companion– …


Markets & Industry follow these trendsReplacement of Wired with WirelessExample: Number of European homes with networks

100%

Wireless

Wired

2004 2009

% o

f wire

less

vs.

wire

d

50%

25%

75%

Year

Source: DisplaySearch, IDC, ABI research, CMI World Market forecast (April 2006)

Shift from Connected Devices to Services

2006 2007 2008 2009

54%

55%

56%

58%

Services as % of total CE market increase Year On Year

Year

Importance of managing the EcosystemExample: Apple managing the ecosystem for iPod experience

Content Creation

Content Distribution

Content Aggregation

Content Consumption

iTunes Music & Video

•plus Accessories ecosystem

•Mobile phone devices

•Wireless services

6

Growth in Connected Devices

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

connected

stand-alone


Internet & Digital Content exploit these trends more

More content leads to highneed for personalization

Explore & LocateSelect / PlaylistsAcquireChangeShare

Content Personalization

Internet Content & Services

Conventional Content & services

More Content Available

Personalize and give me my content so I can enjoy and share it where & when I want

Per

s on

al i

zed

Co

nte

nt

Anywhere, Anytime

7


ICT- CE Applications converge gradually

IT / PCIT / PC

CECE

TelecomTelecom

GamingGaming CRT -TVCRT -TV

Fax

Fixed voiceADSL

Laptop

CRT- Monitors

LCD- Monitors

LCD- TV/Monitors

Home AudioLCD- TV

DVDR

Multifunctional printer

Desktop

PDA

Mobile compaignon

Portable Audio

DVD

STB

Home Console

Portable Console

CRT -TV

VCR


14

Fundamental rules of the game change1. Markets get redefined

- from stand-alone TVs to connected display functions everywhere- from portable A/V to personal expression- from video systems to entertainment hubs

2. Media value chains are redefined- “Media democracy” - Info controlled & created by consumer

3. Industry value chains are redefined- Deverticalisation & commoditisation- Key added value in Software & Application Services only

4. Speed gets increasingly critical- product lifecycle shortens to months- Modular & upgradable products


10

Our Vision of the FUTURE: Connected Planet

A connected world where everybody can seamlessly and intuitively access and share

his preferred entertainment, information and services,

independent of time and location


Source: PCE CMI, Based on international consumer research 2004

Ease of experience

“No tripping, no hassle”

“This is idiot proof”

“User friendly, made for me”

Right content offering, anytime, anywhere

“Access to the right music and movies to match my mood…”

“Access in the car to all the music I have at home”

“Wherever I am in my house, or even on the move, I can get my favourites; cool!”

Instantly share and connect with friends &

family

“This is the future, everything will be wireless and connected”

“Sharing these moments is just great”

“I instantly send a picture of what we are talking about..”

11

CP vision resonates with consumers expectations


Let’s create this people’s dream together !


Scenario 1 - 2010“Nothing new under the sun”

• Users carry different devices for different applications. No system approach to Combo’s

• Users pay different service providers even for connectivity: extrapolation of today’s scenario.

• Incumbent telco / monopolist position (i.e. heavily regulated spectrum policy) prevails (more likely in Europe, China?)

• Consequences: fragmented markets, convergence holds up, vertical products dominate, user has to carry different devices for different applications, services handover means device handover, no economy of scale, ..

• Many people subscribe to different operators for cellular, ADSL, Pay TV

• Congestion and interference affect user experience


Scenario 2 –2015 (citizen perspective)“Application & services are King”

• Users have a “Personal Identification” contract with their operator to get a SIM card:

– Operators provide location-based services: information, security, identification, e-cash, – Communication is for free (EU: SIM-device centric, US: Microsoft, user centric)

• People buy mobile devices according to their lifestyle• Interoperability affects user experience• All devices have build-in radio and are connected,

– Users expect to be able to access info without being tethered.• Internet (anarchist) position (i.e. no regulation) prevails (more likely in the USA?)• Consequences:

– start-ups spring up, high product innovation speed, but wild business models– product performance unpredictable, best effort services only– countless applications, but no end-to-end interoperability, – bulky expensive multi-functional devices, because of no incentive to invest in SDR

technology, ..


Scenario 2 –2015 (citizen perspective)“Application & services are King”

• Scenario 2A – connectivity is not free:– Users pay for connectivity and applications, maybe

to two different service providers or in some cases one service provider offering both connectivity and applications.

• Scenario 2B – connectivity is free:– Connectivity is invisible to the user. User pay for

usage of application, different application and type of service command different fees.


Scenario 3: Citizens perspective• Triple-play (VoIP, TVoIP, Internet access) via one network

and one wireless provider

• Locked in to operator/wireless ISP: You buy your PDA/Phone/navigation from operator

• World-wide harmonized cognitive/agile radio position prevails

• Consequences:– SET (Simple, Efficient, Trust) vision comes true. – Ubiquitous connectivity: convergence and interoperability accelerate. – SDR renaissance: smart compact cheap multi-functional devices

everywhere – global roaming for any service, always best connected and served– sound value chains consolidated for all.


Scenario 3: Business perspective• Unclear about whether the market goes vertical or horizontal:

– 3A: Operators (= Wireless ISPs) making money of basic communication services Horizontal markets ??

– 3B: Infrastructure may be too expensive for horizontal market , government or service providers may subsidize or control set up op networks, cf energy market and air time retailers

• There has been a consolidation into only one or at most a few business models for operators. – Can the investment is infrastructure be recovered? (may need services business

to pay back)• Operators dictate the design of handheld devices• Unification of communication standards • More licensed spectrum, spectrum is still auctioned, and 3 tier business

models (own, lease, reuse) apply• Limited number of standards

• What if Sc2 in EU, Sc3 in China, then Sc3 captures the world

vision of the future – roadibrom summit shanghai convergence digital broadcasting-mobile connected...

Documents

cp vision

future technology landscape

future look like

location slide

content available

personalized content

connected devices

wireless wired